We face into yet another election which, I suspect, few want just now.
The key question is if the previously dormant nationalist leaning electorate will turn out again.
There is a text and and a subtext to this one. The text is the Brexit mini referendum and the subtext, as always, is the nationalist v unionist headcount.
Momentum is key in politics and I have no doubts where the momentum lies just now.
The selection of John Finucane in North Belfast is a potential game changer. The SDLP pattern of simply attacking SF will be laid bare if they go for this one. I hope they don’t but you never know.
Just a thought but the potential for 7 unionist out of 18 MP’s is now live.
"We in coming days may be" 
A good tactical and strategic move by SF. In the short-term, John Finucane will help the party retain and grow its North Belfast vote, hopefully well beyond its traditional supporters or ex-supporters. In the long-term they have set him on the road to becoming a future member of the party’s leadership. He represents the very type of “mainstream” candidate SF should be attracting across the country.
The SDLP must be nervous.
Though my money is still on the DUP retaining the seat. Lets see how he does on the hustings. A good showing, a few missteps by Dodds and who knows?
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Glad you opened a thread on this Bangordub.
this election is definately about Brexit.
My predictions on this are:
North Antrim – DUP
South Antrim – UUP
East Antrim – DUP
Belfast North – SF
Belfast South – SDLP
Belfast East – Alliance
Belfast West – SF
North Down – Ind
Mid-Ulster – SF
West Tyrone – SF
Fermanagh & ST – SF
Foyle – SDLP
East Derry – DUP
Lagan Valley – DUP
Upper Bann – SF
Strangford – DUP
South Down – SDLP
Newry & Armagh – SF
Total:
DUP – 5
UUP – 1
Alliance – 1
Independent – 1
SDLP – 3
SF – 7
Pro – Brexit – 6
Anti – Brexit – 12
SF will win BN if SDLP stay out. SF need to stay out of BS. SF could sneek a Upper Bann win.
Alliance will take back BE.
SF will win F&S T, appathy lost that seat the last time – thats gone now.
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Thanks for that Oriel, I think the above would be a perfect storm but I’d not be surprised if it happened and I’d be very pleased
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Yea its probably a bit optimistic, but i know on the ground and in business, people arent happy about brexit. People feel they are not in control. People feel (and very many in the unionist community) they are being abandoned by Westminster, and they know Westminster couldn’t care less about the border.
Many people like myself (work in north, live in south), are afraid of customs & checkpoint returns – we all know what will happen if that comes about.. – above all else its bad for businesses and society.
This election is a brexit election,
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Cracking selection from Sinn Fein for Belfast North. His background is just what is needed – all the way back to his great Uncle Brendan – that for me puts the icing on the cake. I have no idea how polished a performer he is though or whether he has the political skills – looking forward to finding out. Bring it on.
I would be shocked to see election results as stated above. It really would be game over. Belfast North I suspect will be a cliffhanger. Apart from Fermanagh & South Tyrone where anything could happen I doubt the others will change hands.
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I think that’s right. It’s really about laying down a marker for future elections in newly-drawn constituencies. That’s when the fun and games will really begin.
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Pattern of the SDLP attacking SF? That’s a bit short-hand surely? No doubt with MOM and Finucane that SF are softening up the middle class vote but they have still a bit of lifting to do. Pacts are just short term wins, better to get a broad church of nat voters out and hitting the X. SF have to warm to the politics of the south and look for co-operation rather than domination.
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This is true for example in the assembly election there was about 17000 nationalist votes in South Belfast but a pact would result in about 14000 votes for McDonnell. Basically McDonnell would walk it but the overall vote takes a hit but it would be so worth it to see Dodds lose in NB.
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This is interesting: readers will probably remember Arlene Foster taunting Nationalists on the strength of a few bad elections, saying that she would welcome a border poll and telling SF to be careful what they wish for. Seems she’s changed her mind. I wonder why that is?
http://www.irishnews.com/paywall/tsb/irishnews/irishnews/irishnews//news/politicalnews/2017/05/05/news/dup-leader-arlene-foster-warns-against-destabilising-border-poll-1018432/content.html
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Same reason Dig Out Ahern has been retained to move the goalposts on the border poll. Same reason all of the “constitutional Unionists” are making concerned utterances about how those “other” Unionists might not react well to being part of a United Ireland. Not them of course, but these other Unionists that they don’t know personally but are aware exist. And apparently, despite never meeting one of these Unionists that would engage in terrorism after losing a border poll, there are a million Protestants that would fuel this violence?
Bring. It. On. Fecking ditch hurlers the lot of them. Cannot wait for the gob smacked looks on their faces the day the border result is released. I’ll be wearing my “Curry this Yoghurt!” t-shirt!
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Fantastic coup for SF. Absolutely this is a game changer.
SDLP won’t stand aside, but Nicola Mallon is only ok, she’s no big hitter outside the small pool of SDLP representatives.
Perhaps enough Nationalists who’ve previously lent towards the SDLP will be supportive of John and with the extra momentum, others might see that he has a very real chance and vote tactically to bring him over the line.
North Belfast could become another FST where if there’s a motivated Nationalist turnout SF will win whether the SDLP run or not.
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Not sure it is a game changer at all. Granted he is less bad than Gerry Kelly, but that would be hard! Nicola Mallon is a very strong candidate and has been a Mayor of Belfast. The Assembly elections showed she is a good vote getter. If anything SF should be the ones standing aside for the SDLP both in North Belfast and in South Belfast.
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How you come up with SF standing aside in North Belfast is nothing short of amazing? Here’s the head to heads:
SDLP SF
2016a 10.60% 26.50%
2015w 8.20% 33.90%
2014lg 9.30% 25.40%
2011a 14.00% 31.90%
2011lg 12.90% 30.50%
2010w 12.30% 34.00%
2007a 14.40% 29.80%
2005w 16.70% 27.00%
2005lg 16.80% 24.50%
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Plainly because the SDLP has a better chance of winning the seat in such circumstances.
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Hmmmmmmmmmm, quite
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Activist – I’ve binned your latest comment as you may have noticed. Please back up your points with facts.
You cannot just make an appearance every time there is an election nearing and proceed to make ridiculous unsubstantiated allegations against SF in particular.
It demeans your party as a whole and exposes me personally to the risk of litigation.
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I am referring to the party documentation that tallied up the number of Catholics and Protestants in the constituency.
Thanks for the censorship, not one bit surprised by it.
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Substantiation:
http://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-leaflet-sectarianism-2080340-May2015/
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Thank you, that is much better, although it is actually a report of a unionist politicians opinion of a leaflet, not in any way substantiation, but nevertheless I appreciate the effort. I was hoping we might get the SDLP opinion from you?
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/pictures-emerge-of-uups-mike-nesbitt-lying-face-down-on-belfast-hotel-floor-35691177.html
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Sinn Fein just like last time have come up with a slightly one sided pact. SDLP to stand aside in FST and North Belfast and SF to offer nothing in return. You literally couldnt make it up lol. Something tells me Collum will say no
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LOL. SF just call for SDLP to stand aside. Laughable!
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SDLP are in serious danger of losing Foyle and South Down to SF, not to mention South Belfast to any number of threats. IIf the SDLP consider that laughable I fear for them
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Bangordub I hope you are wrong about the SDLP as i keep saying we need at least 2 strong nationalist parties. I hope McDonnell holds on as i dont think Mom has the numbers. I really like Durkan and think he does some good work over in Westminster and feel he should be comfortable but honestly I couldnt give a toss about Ritchie cant stand her and would be happy for hazard to oust her
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Margaret and Mark are both safe in my opinion, while Alasdair should pull it off again unless the DUP do particularly well.
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If Collum has any sense, he’ll give them a counter offer and settle for a free run in S. Belfast. Otherwise McDonald is toast.
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With no unionist pact mcdonnell will probably be ok but it will be close
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If SF don’t catch him then I hope you’re right, but he seems to be deeply unpopular among the middle class liberals in the area.
Last time he scrapped in with the lowest vote of any MP in the UK.
There may be more Catholics moving into S. Belfast, but most of them are likely to be younger, less priest pecked and more SF, Green or Alliance friendly, than his Old Guard who are dying out.
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I think this is a wildly unpredictable one
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Of course the alternative take on it is that young Finucane comes from a Provo family and that will rally DUP votes in North Belfast.
I went to school off the Ballysillan Rd and remember well the aftermath of his dad’s murder in the atmosphere of the time. The remoulding of Pat Finucane as a human rights lawyer isn’t swallowed on the loyalist sides of the peacelines and, as pointed out by an earlier poster, his family history is certainly far from pleasant to unionists.
So Gerry Kelly’s contemptable familiarity, or familiar contempt, may be replaced by a galvinising bogeyman that will ensure a Unionist MP in NB.
As for the other Belfast constituencies, EB will be DUP, SF in WB and SB may be the conundrum right up until the results are counted.
FST to revert to SF; WT, MU, SD and NA the same, Foyle SF too. So 8 SF seats, 9 UUP/DUP and a toss up in SB between Unionist and Nationalist.
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It will certainly be interesting Carrickally,
For me the interesting point will be the turnout on both sides, that will determine the results.
The only truly sectarian headcount results are actually the FPP Westminster elections and these are the most unpredictable in years
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You are right, or perhaps to qualify your point; westminster elections are more blatantly sectarian that Assembly and certainly council votes. The same (by and large) electorate votes in the same (by and large) way no matter what the forum.
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Interesting point Carrickally.
But how would a relative of an IRA man/men be a worse bogeyman than the actual (ex) IRA man, Gerry Kelly ?
Unless perhaps N Belfast Unionist are very miffed that the execution of Solicitor Pat Finucane, with direction from the security forces, was not properly covered up and worse still, criticised by some of their allies.
If John Finucane motivates an increased Unionist turnout, it will say a lot about what N. Belfast Unionists think about Catholics rights to justice and equality in general.
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Its dodgy enough just assuming Pats guilt nevermind then slinging mud at his son which unfortunately seems to be the conclusion people are drawing. Strange how pin up girl emma little isnt then treated in the same way!
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Paul, perception and truth on Pat Finucane. My perception, undimmed over 25 years, is that he was a lawyer who was famed for representing terrorists. Not as a poor, appointed by the State legal aid guy but through deliberate choosing by the defendants, or their parent body.
The truth may never out. Like so many things in NI, past and present. I would say though that many republicans would feel Pat Finucane did his part using his talents.
Does that negate his family’s right to justice? No, because our government should have set a higher standard than terrorists.
Boondock, I don’t know Ms Pengally’s story except that I read on slugger that her dad was a convicted terrorist. Something I genuinely didn’t know. So what is good for the republican goose re mudslinging should equally apply to the loyalist gander.
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Those SDLP seats are not going SF – Mark and Margaret are secure as can be seen by looking at how they did 2 years ago.
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Believing that nothing can possibly change in a two year period is a neat summation of the tactical and strategic nous of the SDLP just now.
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Its my own personal view that they’re safe, and not just an assumption, but lets see. Not long to wait.
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I hope you are right. I would rather a democratic and explicitly anti-violence party won the seats than one that is at best a recent convert to those pillars of societal integrity.
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2015 results are great and all but there was an earthquake of an election just in January. In 2015 Ritchie got 18k, SF got 12k, in 2017 SF got 19k and the SDLP 12.5k. Is it your argument that those January SF voters are now going to vote for Ritchie or stay home? I think this is going to be a pickup for SF.
In Foyle in 2015 Durkan got 17.7k and SF 11.7k, in 2017 SF 16.4k and SDLP 14.2k. In 2016 Assembly it was roughly 12k a piece. On those numbers Durkan is a certain goner and Elisha McCallion is a strong candidate. Normally his incumbency and personal skills would be sufficient to guarantee victory but he is a very tough spot and far from safe.
In a month McDonnell may be the sole SDLP MP, or there could be none at all. Interesting times.
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Not really comparing like with like there glen (different types of election).
For my money the only risky SDLP seat is Alasdair’s but I hope he will come through the middle as he has done so well in past Westminster elections.
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South Down will go to SF, and South Belfast will go to DUP. Foyle will stay with the SDLP by a whisker and because of tactical voting on the part of Unionists.
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Margaret Ritchie is so irritating and patronising that she can never be considered secure.
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From now on every UK parliamentary election could be the last one held in Northern Ireland.
Assuming the next parliament goes the distance and as is looking likely a very hard Brexit. That should do it for re-unification. The only hold up would be the SoS calling the border poll as 50%+1 is so close a victory that it does not trigger the GFA standard requiring a poll.
Might end up needing the Tories out of office to trigger that poll though.
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If May plays things right, you are looking at a Blair or Thatcher stretch in power.
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Thankfully she won’t. The 10 Downing street dinner with Juncker makes that clear and there won’t be a Falklands war to bail her out. Not with the navy the UK now has.
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I think that’s true. Bear in mind that Labour was set to lose about 50-70 seats due to the redrawn constituencies alone. That’s another weapon May has at her disposal should Labour recover under a new leader.
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It will be interesting to see whether Corbyn stands down as leader or not. That makes a huge difference.
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Could be the last Westminster election? You read it here from glen.
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We are a little further away than you think unfortunately. Demographically, Unionism has a clear majority in the over forty age category. However it is only a matter of time. 2027 to be exact. That is when nationalism will have a clear demographic majority.
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My tuppence.
Unionism will solidfy behind Dodds in North Belfast. Some of the commentary above about Finucane, his family and his rightful quest for justice will be used against him on the doorsteps by one of the DUP’s most formidable electoral machines. Finucane will increase the SF share of the vote against a lower profile SDLP candidate. Good ground for SF to recapture that lost seat (to alliance) in Castle.
McDonell is in serious trouble. The competition from SF, Alliance and Greens will prevent him pulling together enough of a coalition to stay ahead of Pengelley.
AS is Rithie. Hazard while seeming a competent Minister, has not impressed in media. However, that huge surge for them in South Down means even unionist tactical voting won’t save her. South Down citadel was breached in March. It crumbles in June.
I think Durkan is safe. PBP are running slower profile candidate. There will be significant tactical voting from unionists.
SDLP down to 1 and Eastwood’s steadying of the SDLP ship and bringing through fresh talent comes to naught.
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Its going to be close but in March 2017 DUP were only about 500 votes ahead of SDLP. McDonnell has a lot more people likely to vote tactically for him than DUP here. Plus DUP would probably have been better going with Stalford to maximize their vote. Pengelly seems to be like marmite so plenty of Unionists wont go near here.
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So Gaygael,
Will you be voting tactically to get Dodds out, or putting it in the Green bin?
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Mc auley north belfast, Garrity FST. In fairness to the SDLP they have gone for pretty low key candidates
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Credit where it’s due, they’ve given the green light to any SDLP voters who would consider voting tactically, to do so. Let’s hope enough of them do and we can say goodbye to Doddsy.
If by polling day, it becomes clear that SF won’t catch McDonnell in S. Belfast, SF voters should also vote tactically to return a Nationalist and deprive Arlene of a gain.
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I will be voting for what I believe in. That will be Green politics. The progressive shade of Green.
And I will be campaigning for as many people as possible to do the same.
Will Shinnerbots be advising their people to vote tactically everywhere else or do they just apply this duplicity in North Belfast?
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What a pity the Green parties always sell out to neoliberalism and betray any “green” principles they ever held whenever they get a whiff of power. Witness their betrayal and fate in the 26 counties the last 20 years. A story of betrayal they have replicated in other polities.
Can’t make progress on the environment until we deal with capitalism. Unless you are serious about taking on that fight, your protestations of supporting progressive Green policies are nothing by empty posturing.
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I’m a watermelon.
I want to move the a small diet that produces to meet need rather than feed greed. I support democratic confederalism.
We are an autonomous part of the Irish greens. I think you are making searching genetslisations. Have a look at the recently global green platform.
If you are on the left is there much for you to disagree with?!
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Typos!
I want to move to a society that meets need
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Gaygael,
It is not the platform, it is their effectiveness at implementing it. The history of the Greens in the 26 and Germany illustrate the problem of the the environment as the primary issue, without linking it to capitalism. I’ve seen two Green parties attain power, betray their principles and suffer for it. In Ireland they were wiped out, and rightly so.
The causes that the Green party pursue can, in my opinion, only succeed by addressing wealth inequality and capitalism.
Again. It is not the issues, it is how the Green party has been subverted and betrayed its voters that is my problem. Without linking the environment to wealth inequality, neoliberalism and capitalism you are wasting your time. I really wish it were otherwise but 40 years of politics has demonstrated it to be otherwise. And I’d be delighted if you proved me wrong.
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Ah, the old “Shinnerbots”. Never do we hear mention of “SDLPbots”, “DUPbots”, “UUPbots”, “Greenbots”, “Alliancebots”. Progressive my árse.
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I call them Stooperdrones. That’s for the sdlp.
I can’t find good alliteration yet for alliance.
It’s mainly the social media parrots that regurgitate without critical analysis. All parties have them.
The mass calling for a referendum on equal marriage by said shinnerbots is a classic example. McGuiness said it flippantly on tv during the 2015 election. Cue shinnerbots clamouring for one. LGBT sector and most other parties rejected it. Cue sf dropping it like a stone and the online bots doing the same after email reminder of party policy.
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Not sure if Stooperdrones or Shinnerbots count as alliteration of the unthinking.
Auto Alliance or Aliiance Androids on the other hand..
The crime of those Shinnerbots, seems only that they were too enthusiastic to support your gay marriage goal. Derision seems an undeserved reward for those who would be your allies.
Instead you prefer the SDLP and Dodds. Go Green, Get Gimps!
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Shinnerbots? Is there really any need to be nasty?
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It was November 1987. I was 19 years old. I knew I was gay but could talk to nobody about it, I was afraid, and had nowhere to turn. One evening I was waiting for a bus to go to James’ Hospital in Dublin to visit my gran, the bus stop was at ‘Kellys Corner’ south of Rathmines. I noticed a flyer stuck in the corner of the bus shelter, I cant remember the exact wording but it had a Sinn Fein logo. It said something like this, Gay? Scared? Don’t be, you are NOT alone. It had a phone number, next day I called the number. It was the Dublin resource centre, a Gay helpline. A few days later I was at my first Gay ‘youth group’ meeting in Capel Street Dublin. I felt saved, it was the first day of the rest of my life and I truly felt happy. It was another twenty years before I ever engaged in any way with Sinn Fein, But I believe that flyer saved my life.
Sinn fein have always been supporters of the Gay community both North and South, in fact the party worked hard to educate its working class base that homophobia and racism were not acceptable. That commitment might go some way to explain why we culturally reject UKIP or National Front style parties in the south, and why nationalism in the North is far more socially progressive than Unionism.
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Hi Robin.
That’s a personal story and thanks for sharing. I think a particular branch of Sf in Dublin were being very progressive particularly after the high profile murder of Declan Flynn.
SF Ard Fheis in 86 supported decriminalisation. That was 4 yrs after Jeff had won in the North and 8 years after Norris 1st challenge in the south. There is a revisionist false narrative in SF that they have been doing this stuff for decades. The facts suggest otherwise.
I don’t doubt many SF activists and supporters fully support queer equality, its the leadership I would query.
Please have a critical examination of record and actions rather than repeated propaganda. Ill give 3 examples. There are many many more.
1) SF had MLAs from 1998. It took a Green MLA to bring the first ever motion on LGBT issues to the Assembly in 2012. That was the marriage motion.
2) SF had 3 education Ministers. No inclusive RSE, a defanged and worthless Anti-Bullying Bill and schools no safer for queer kids.
3) Michelle O’Neil did not extend NICE Guidelines which were in operation throughout the rest of the UK since 2013, which would have extended IVF access to 3 cycles and including LGBT women.
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It was the early 90s when Mitchel McLaughlin and Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin were arguing quite publicly across the media in support of the LGBT community. It was a national effort and certainly not confined to Dublin only, although I accept it’s a clever angle to try and strip away credit where it is due. In 2010 the party argued for a full equal marriage status when the civil partnership bill was travelling through the Dail. ‘Repeated Propaganda’, that is an unnecessary dig, that sort of arrogant dismissal of an individuals opinions is probably more associated with the DUP rather than the Greens. Michelle moved swiftly on the blood ban almost as soon as she was appointed, a very welcome development. Nobody can ever quite do enough though
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Robin. My reference to the Dublin group was post Declan Flynn’s murder. I repeat that I once again don’t doubt the commitment of activists, members and supporters. I am critiquing the leadership. Thats welcome that in 2010 in the Dail they argued for full marriage status. They didn’t say it or move a motion in the North. That’s a bit partitionist is it not?
In fact I challenged Catriona Ruane (or Martine) at Belfast Pride in 2012 that talking about supporting our community was not enough and that SF needed to bring forward legislation, act with Ministerial authority or deliver something tangible. She promised they would support the Green Motion on marriage and fair do they did.
But why did it take a Green if SF (and others) were so committed to our equality?
Regarding the blood ban, Michelle sought Executive approval. And the DUP indicted prior to the election that they were ready to move. The executive moved. Not Michelle. Nor SF. Welcome progress though. I fully expect that the SF leadership had decided to drop us piecemeal equality over the course of the now aborted 2016-2021 mandate. A blood ban here, IVF access there, PrEP (after the English of course) eventually, ad nauseam.
Can you answer the other questions? Maybe put them up the ladder and ask why 3 sf education ministers failed to improve school for queer kids. Why they ditched a sexual orientation strategy in the most recent programme for government? I have many many many examples.
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I have no knowledge or info on the questions you pose but I do know it was the divils own job trying to keep the DUP sweet over the last few years. Remember that Alliance and the SDLP were also involved in government so the failures are collective rather than pointed. Have you asked SF directly about the issues you have raised?
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Yes I have and I have repeatedly put the challenge to the other parties too. I have called them out on political panels and look forward to doing so again during this election.
Whining that ‘It’s the DUP’ means you are either terrible at negotiating, or you don’t have queer equality anywhere near the top of you negoiating priorities.
Alliance pointedly calling themselves progressive. Look at their voting record on marriage and their failure to support a minimum human rights standard on abortion. Never mind voting through welfare reform, opposition to quotas, support of zero hours contracts and right wing economics.
I think that’s a duck from you Robin. Why would SF be acting in a partitionist manner on marriage? On the anti-bullying bill? On separating church and state in the south but refusing to do so in the North.
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The party operates in two different jurisdiction of the one nation. Priorities flux and flake depending on dynamic and circumstances, not unlike parties who operate across regional governments in federalised systems abroad for example. Ideally it would be nirvana to magically have all one’s issues done and dusted in double quick time; but we do not live in a nirvana and trying to work against a wall of DUP intransigence does not look very easy to me at least. I am happy that SF are holding the DUP feet to the fire on issues such as Equal Marraige and the Irish Language. More of this would be very welcome.
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Holding to the fire by giving Givan the Ministry responsible for a sexual orientation strategy and languages?
Do you believe your own words?
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Straight into the Green Waste bin so.
In FTPT, as with those who stay at home, that is the same as a half vote to Dodds and a half vote to Finucane, which effectively benefits the leader, ie Dodds.
Glad Doddsy’s your MP and not mine.
You can’t say you didn’t have the chance to change it.
Regarding SF voters, my earlier comment urging them to vote SDLP in S. Belfast if becomes clear SF won’t win, is awaiting moderation for some reason.
Are you accusing me of being duplicitous?
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Im the green candidate. I couldn’t in good conscious asl the 700-800 first prefers to vote for an abstainer or a party ambivalent on its past.
I’m accusing sf of being duplicitous. Do you apply the logic of only two horse races across all eighteen constituencies? Or just in the ones your party are competitive in?
I abhor FPTP. However, I think people should vote for what they believe in or as close as possible.
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best of luck to you
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Of course i didn’t expect you to agree with tactical voting. Even if you do, you could hardly admit it in public.
Wouldn’t an abstainer be much better than Dodds turning up.
Far from being ambivalent, SF take much pride in their past struggles.
I would of course apply the logic to other constituencies. If I was in E. Belfast I would vote tactically for Alliance or Greens if they were the main challenger.
Of course it would be ideal to vote for candidates we believe in, but this is an election to real power, with real consequences, so practical decisions need to be made.
The Brits voted down the PR referendum which suits Tories and Unionists, so we’ll have to live with it and find ways to mitigate it’s unfairness.
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Once again general sweeping generalisations. Did you read what I wrote? I quite clearly linked saving the planet to ending capitalism.
If you are a sf supporter please look at PPI for betrayal. I can only be responsible for my own greens. Did you read the global green statement?
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I gave up on tactical voting in 2010. I coincidently voted for Martin McAuley! I try to be as transparent as possible and have no reason to lie. We are building something different outside the establishment parties.
As for an abstainer preferable to Dodds? I’m a gay person. My MP has opposed every move to my equality.
As for SFs tactical ambivalence, it’s revisionist and selective. Not even the most ardent shinner celebrates strapping contractors to vans with s bomb and driving them into army bases while holding family hostage.
Which unionist do you advocate voting for in The Antrim constituencies?
I try to live my ideals and by doing so make them well. I’m also out knocking doors persuading people to the same.
The Uk voted down AV. It was a poor compromise. I hope the uk shifts eventually, although disapointingly Corbyn is a blocker to it, despite stealing almost all the English Greens manifesto of 2015. They are doing what they can to mitigate it. We are definitely not as British as Finchley, and too big gaps between parties prevented an alliance.
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Martin McAuley is a very good candidate. Personally I think he is better than the person that SF have put up this time. Also you are a good candidate. Its good to see you standing again.
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Thank you SDLP activist. I think the line-up (I’m biased) in North Belfast is strong. Let’s hope we get to go head to head and let the voters choose based on who presents the best policies.
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Gaygael,
Although you gave a reason why Dodds is an appalling MP for you, you didn’t answer the question of whether an abstainer would be better than Dodds.
In N. Belfast, as in E. Belfast, there are two very different front running candidates, one of which will definitely win. There is therefore a binary choice to make as to which one will be MP.
In Antrim, it is difficult to differentiate between front running Unionist candidates, so nationalists vote for who they like, unless a particularly obnoxious character like McCrea is running.
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I do not get the “this election is about Brexit” paradigm. I cannot see what difference the result will make in discussions about Brexit. On one side an increasingly strong Tory Britain and one the other the EU, both of which will not take direction from the elected representatives in this province of the UK. The only people with any influence outside those centralised powers are the Irish government. And they will not let the interests of the South be compromised, not even for the north as we all know.
This election is another border poll, or rather a poll on whether a borer poll will be successful.
On one side we have a left wing alliance for the border poll, on the other a right wing alliance against it. The you have the others without the confidence or honesty to declare what constitutional arrangement the believe will provide the best conditions for us to live under. Cowards.
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If that your analysis, will you be casting your vote this time, Croiteir?
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No
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Croiteir,
You might imagine that your refusal to vote is being noted as part of a movement of traditional, Catholic, abstentionist nationalists, but reality, your non vote simply becomes part of the turnout statistic where those who failed to be counted are generally considered to be part of the sub political classes of drug users, petty criminals, flat out small business guys, struggling single mothers, the very wealthy who consider themselves above it all or Unicorns too conflicted or unaware to vote.
Worse than being unnoticed, your boycott is actually mis-interpreted !
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Paul
You may imagine that – but frankly I do not care what labels anyone puts on me, especially if they do it as a form of derision or demeaning my motives. But just for the record I am doing this not out of any other motive but not supporting or allowing my vote to be misrepresented as support for something which I cannot support. It is no more complicated than that.
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This is effectively a border poll. Not voting is a vote for British rule in Ireland.
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I accept being neutral on the border or not voting against it is in effect a pro union inaction however voting for policies that I am diametrically opposed to is actively supporting them, of the two options I believe that the latter is the greater evil.
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I thought this Newsletter story was interesting, for a number of reasons. It seems that the DUP are concerned about a doubling in the numbers of proxy votes in the North, a rise they claim is centred on Nationalist constituencies. That concern seems to be to belie the confident boasts of DUP figures that the forthcoming Westminster election will be their great comeback. But even more significant than that is the insinuation that the electoral authorities aren;t doing their job properly or, worse, are conniving with Nationalists to win elections. I believe that we’re going to see a lot more of this: a gradual alienation of Unionism from the Six County State it doesn’t control any more.
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/foster-voices-fears-over-explosion-in-proxy-voting-1-7962439
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Is Faha going to do constituency profiles? Faha is as mysterious as Banksy no?
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The good news is yes,
Faha is awaiting the next Lucid poll results and will have his analysis up in due course
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An interesting read for fans of this site: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/election-2017-why-sinn-f-could-end-northern-irelands-largest-party
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PBP not standing in N.Belfast. SDLP flying a paper candidate.
That just leaves the WP, as usual, stabbing Nationalists in the back, doing the Unionists dirty work, splitting the vote, as well as Gaygael of the Greens.
Is Gaygael making an effort to canvas loyalist areas or is he content to merely syphon off sympathetic Nationalist voters and hand over all of the Protestant votes to help get Dodds back in ?
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PaulG – The difference of a genuine progressive party is that we canvass all working class areas. Not just ‘Catholic’ or ‘Protestant’ ones. Over the last week we have canvassed Cavehill and Skegoniel (both parts).
Equality and social justice are lived values for us. Not just repeated slogans.
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But do you get votes from Protestant working class areas? If they don’t want to go Big House Unionist or rabid sectarian DUP they have the small u Alliance option.
Are you just the next non Unionist on the list of Nationalist voters as the transfer their stv ?
For Westminster, you have a handful of LBGT and some hippy votes. Really how many genuine tree huggers are there in N. Belfast?
How many working class votes do you think you’ll get, if you ever get to implement your policies and impose new Green Taxes on those who can’t afford any taxes?
You would be better off in leafy Protestant suburbs. At least you wouldn’t be lying to the faces of people on their doorsteps
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Gaygael,
When the boxes are opened, will we expect to see similar numbers of Green Party votes from Protestant areas and Catholic areas ?
Does analysis of second preferences in previous Assembly and Council elections support that expectation ?
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We are trying to move past your binary interpretation of areas as ‘catholic’ or ‘protestant’.
You might be surprised where our votes come from. They are everywhere but some areas have some similarities in demographics.
I have run 2 campaigns in South Belfast and been involved in a third. I have stood in North Belfast twice.
An oft repeated assertion is that Greens only do well in ‘unionist’ areas. Then we broke through in South Belfast taking the seat from the Deputy Leader of the SDLP and ahead of a sitting DUP Junior Minister. We then held it and put her out less than a year later. North Down looks very safe and we have built that over a decade. We put down firm roots and grow slowly.
You will have to keep developing the narrative around us. And FPTP may skew that as we are a smaller party, we may feel a pinch.
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Lots of N. Belfast is segregated into Catholic and Protestant areas.That is not an interpretation, that is a fact.
It was largely as result of Loyalist pogroms and Unionist political attempts to Gerrymander the seat. You are merely a new tool in their continuing perversion of democracy.
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Sweetie. I ain’t nobodies tool. They don’t like us being the second largest party in working class PUL communities either. Just like SF won’t when the PBP bubble bursts (if it hasn’t already).
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Quite the vitriol.
But do you get votes from Protestant working class areas? If they don’t want to go Big House Unionist or rabid sectarian DUP they have the small u Alliance option.
Are you just the next non Unionist on the list of Nationalist voters as the transfer their stv ?
For Westminster, you have a handful of LBGT and some hippy votes. Really how many genuine tree huggers are there in N. Belfast?
How many working class votes do you think you’ll get, if you ever get to implement your policies and impose new Green Taxes on those who can’t afford any taxes?
You would be better off in leafy Protestant suburbs. At least you wouldn’t be lying to the faces of people on their doorsteps
We get votes from all working class communities. I know I get quite a few from my extended working class catholic background family. As a progressive party, I canvass in all working class communities that we have capacity to do so. Can your ‘progressive’ party say that?
My 11% transfer to SF when eliminated in 2016 is probably an indicator of that of SF voters choosing me first. My loss of 85 votes in 2017 was prob most of them going back again. Temporarily. We get votes from everywhere. All boxes in North Belfast have green voters. My surprise at 2nd preferences from TUV and UKIP in 2016 says something. We are a progressive choice and as we continue to establish ourselves more and more people will do so. Genuine progressive politics, may not be something you comprehend.
I get queer votes I’m sure. I also get votes for doing constituency work. For my involvement in suicide prevention work. For my historic youth work in North Belfast. For my years of solidarity with my sisters fighting for reproductive autonomy (how progressive is your party on that eh?). For my years of standing shoulder to shoulder with Trade Unions against cuts. Cuts implemented by your party. We introduced 26 amendments to ameliorate the worts aspects of Tory austerity. Your party voted them down. My charm and winning smile help on the doors too.
Wait to see our manifesto. Progressive taxation anyone? It means those most able to afford will pay and we can have the world class systems we should have. We are not offering tax cuts to corporations, unlike the establishment parties. Now off you go and try paint your populism into progressive politics. Less and less of us are fooled.
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can we keep it polite gentlemen please?
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Gaygael,
You’ve written a lot about about LBGT equality, progressive policies, leftist policies and the working class. – Nothing about the Environment.
Are you sure you haven’t joined the wrong party by mistake.
Did you in fact, mean to join Sinn Fein that day ?
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As a prospective politician, I’m sure Gaygael welcomes the opportunity to get his views out there and would expect nothing less, than to have them tested here, with the realms of common decency, of course.
For my part, I am delighted to be known as henceforth, as ‘sweetie’ 🙂
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I’m an activist. Not a politician.
Heavy day at office guys. Sweetie is endearment. Even if it’s only half sincerely meant. I have friends and family in the Shinners and the challenges I put here are the same ones I put to them.
Apologies if its boils over into uncivil. I will be more careful.
Re the environment – The first ever meeting of North Belfast Greens we had the campaigners from Woodburn attend and speak to us. We supported their campaign from the start. Agnew Brough a motion to the executive to immediately stop the drill but none of the big 5 (bar alliance) would support it.
The campaign grew and eventually Hazard brought forward consultation on amending permitted development rights so that companies like Infrastrat could not do what they did in Woodbury under the same legislation with which I could extend my porch.
We talked about the environment for the last 30 years. We still do. Agnew exposed sand dredging at Lough Neagh, and asked double the amount of questions to the environment Minister in the 2011-2016 mandate than all of the Foyle MLAs combined. This led to the exposure of Moubuoy, Europe’s biggest illegal dump.
Most parties (except the DUP deniers) accept climate change and talk about the environment. We helped shift that conversation. We are glad that others have caught up.
Now. Are you going to respond to any of my previous points? Maybe some of the questions put to Robin re how sincere the SF leadership is on equality? Reproductive autonomy for women? Cutting taxes for corporations while slashing welfare and public services? Let’s hear the progressive arguments for those.
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Ive also been looking at the figures in North Belfast.
SF’s highest ever vote share was in 2015 when Kelly secured 24% of the vote or 13,770. He was 5,326 behind Dodds.
Earlier this year, SF (who locally were delighted with their result) scored 29.4% and 12,204 votes. The DUP got 33.1% and 13,309.
It’s simply too big a gap for SF to make up no matter how much they ramp it up. They did the same in 2015. I certainly think their celebrity candidate will pull in some extra votes, but not enough.
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That should say 34%.
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Gaygael,
Visitors and contributors to this site are acutely aware of the relative Nationalist and Unionist votes available in N. Belfast. You might try to justify your ‘spoiler’ role in this election by spinning and spoofing figures to the electorally illiterate, but that won’t wash here.
There are more Nationalists voters than Unionist and they have just turned out to elect 3 Nationalist assembly members.
If you are standing as a candidate then ‘prospective politician’ is a more accurate term than ‘activist. The fact that you have no hope of winning, possibly losing your deposit, does not change the fact that you may completely change the result and prevent the Human Rights lawyer from displacing the Sectarian, Racist, Fascist and Homophobic alternative.
I wouldn’t like to be in your shoes if Dodds wins by less than number of votes you take from Nationalist areas. The Green Party will be dead and buried in N. Belfast as well as other Nationalist areas. You dream of replacing PBP, but they have had the sense not to protect Dodds and will live to fight another day.
Perhaps you are being sacrificed for the delusions of the N. Down and S. Belfast Brigade.
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There is no spoiler vote.
We are a radically progressive party. You have repeatedly failed to answer any of my challenges I have put to you. We are a grass roots democracy and believe in representation. Decisions on candidacy are made locally. The celebrity candidate does not offer representation. In years and years of protesting, demonstrating and rallying for queer, women’s, minority and workers rights, I have never seen him at an event. As an old school peer I would recognise him.
In AE17 Nationalism scored 42.5% and Unionism 42.8%. Add PBP and Workers to the Nationalist total and get 46.7%. To unseat Dodds, you would never every single SDLP and PBP vote plus, everyone that turned out for SF the last time. That’s not happening, no matter how much you ramp it or believe your own propaganda. Or get favourable political commentators to flag it.
In fact, Caral (who I have much time for) was just 500 votes ahead of Alliance at the last stage in the most recent election. If unionists had transferred Alliance, she would have been gone. Alliance know this. It’s already evident in some of their positioning, which many misconstrue as just about East Belfast.
What remains is the ‘others’. That key 10% ish (and growing almost everywhere) which refuses to ascribe to binary orange and green politics. We hold the balance of power in BCC. We hold it in the Assembly.
Threatening us with ‘death and burying’ will not win us to support you. That’s an unfortunate turn of phrase from a supporter of a party which continues to deny many families their rights to truth and justice.
I will stand in my own shoes regardless of the outcome. And the membership which we have quadrupled since starting just two years ago will stand firm too. I expect that the margin of loss is more likely to be within the SDLP score but if it is within mine then so be it. Every vote for a Green is a curse at your sectarian politics.
You cannot kill an idea, even with the apparatus of a big political movement behind you. As a republican, you think you might already know that……
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When you are so far from even being considered as a contender and your input is likely to favour 1 candidate over another, then you are a spoiler.
I would have thought someone identifying as part of a minority group seeking change, would appreciate the importance of avoiding subdivision against the monolith.
Will N. Belfast have to endure more of Doddsy’s representation for the excuse of Finucanes Westminster boycott?
Standing smells of the Green Party’s deluded self importance.
Much to your disappointment, I don’t threaten you or your Party with anything. My predicted death and burial of your Party is through your own suicidal political decisions.
How many of the ‘others’ Assembly and Council seats result from merely being ahead of the Monster Looney types when neither Nats or Unionists can get the Quota and they dump their transfers to stop ‘them uns’ getting in ? Hardly a ringing endorsement.
Every vote for you is actually a vote the DUP’s sectarian politics, but that is obviously insignificant compared to the ego’s within the Green Party.
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Again Paul you didn’t answer any of the points I made to you. Instead you launched into another tirade. I have repeatedly answered you and tried to do so with dignity and decorum. That has not been reciprocated.
Let’s follow the duplicity of your rhetoric across all 18 constituencies? How many SF candidates are spoilers? Shall you apply your own prejudiced logic to those candidates, or is it just for the smaller parties?
If you can not persuade enough people to vote for your republican royalty candidate, that’s hardly my fault. It’s more the toxicity of your own brand. I canvassed an old school friend of mine who was very friendly with John at school. I presumed his vote was sown up, but he was emphatic he would NEVER vote SF. The 700-800 first prefs I got in the last two assembly elections (and the hundreds more other preferences) are the least of your worries. You should be trying to persuade the 1,000s of voters who went PBP or SDLP recently. You need every single one of them. And then some. But with the arrogant attitude displayed here, it’s not going to happen for you. A sense of entitlement to people’s votes does wonders to put them off.
Every vote for a SF candidate and the toxic party branding, who have patently got far too much ground to make up to catch Dodds, is a vote for the DUP. That is obviously insignificant compared to the breath taking arrogance and duplicity from Shinnerbots.
See what I did there?
Now I’m away to celebrate my Party Manifesto. If you want hints on being a genuine progressive, its available online. We are taking about a wealth tax rather than tax cuts for corporations. x
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‘Decorum and Dignity’. Self praise is no praise, and in this case it is false praise.
I’m sorry to have to bring you out of your delusion bubble, but it is you who have repeatedly avoided answering the simple question : Is Dodds going to Westminster better than having FInucane abstaining ?
I am not a member of any Party and have no fixed allegiance. I have no skin in the game, unlike you.
There were opportunities to make common cause, which you have spurned in your spite.
Apart from our esteemed resident Unionist, most on this site are of the Republican persuasion. Nothing written here will have lost SF any votes. By contrast, your arrogant lecturing and condescending attitude towards anyone not deemed to be as ‘progressive’ as you, may cost you future transfers, which now calls into question your judgement, as well as temprement.
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Paul. It’s not a binary choice. We don’t reduce every constituency to a zero sum game between the two front runners. If we accepted your logic, we would never stand anywhere (in FPTP elections) and therefore never grow our vote nor engage with voters. We offer people a choice of our progressive values. We offer an entirely different platform to most of the establishment parties. Do you want to list the 18 constituencies and list who should stand down and who shouldn’t?
The best bet to dislodge Dodds would have been a genuine progressive candidate that could pull votes from everywhere. An abstaining Shinner is not that candidate no matter how much you ham it up. It’s very obvious that a significant number of SDLP voters will never go SF, and even less from Green and Alliance voters. The numbers are simply not there unless there is a political earthquake. If it happens, I will come on here and profusely eat massive helpings of humble pie.
We genuinely explored the anti-brexit pact. We gave it serious consideration. As a grassroots democracy, we took time to consult our local groups who fed back to the executive. We engaged with parties and broadened it to include the UUP. Alliance, opportunistically called us ‘tainted by nationalism’ after a knee jerk rejection from Naomi. In good conscience, as I stated repeatedly, we couldn’t ask people to vote for an anti-choice party or historically ambivalent on violence abstainers. The gaps were just too big at too short notice.
If you look at the voting records at the Assembly, you will see the we very regularly make common cause with SF. We share many political stances and those are alliances that we will build on.
You see what you don’t get is that in the Greens, some of us are nationalist or republican, some of us are loyalist or unionist, some of us don’t give a hoot about constitutional questions and are post-nationalist. The one thing that unites us is that we are all GREEN. We share a set of common values and principles. The constitutional question is very far down the list of our priorities. It goes back to my point that this is not binary. It is part of our political views and opinions but it is NOT the primary differentiator.
It is exactly people like us that you must persuade should you wish to win reunification. I am likely a friend in court, but threatening to (attempt to) kill and bury our party makes us less friendly. While I accept your assertion that you have no skin in the game, the language, tone and points you made re SF losing by my margin of votes, was said to me by a SF member just a couple of days ago. Forgive me if I wrongly presume you to be that person.
My judgement and temperament are not in question. A faceless internet poster that threatens my party is not best positioned to call that. I posed a series of questions, which I regularly pose to my Shinner friends and family, which I will also challenge your candidate on. I will work hard for transfers and ideally first preferences in the future. I’m off to sell our manifesto on the doors of North Belfast and that should help.
I’ve been commenting on this site for a number of years. Even before I joined the Greens. I particularly enjoy the constituency predictions and FAHAs analysis. I think there is a broader base of readership and contributions than just republicanism.
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Gaygael,
I concede your reply and it’s tone are well judged and you’ve also outdone me on the spelling of ‘temperament’.
Although I accept that the odds are against Finucane, He does have a genuine chance to oust Dodds. It will be a terrible pity if a groundswell of support arrives but then falls just short.
I appreciate that the Green Party did explore the idea of anti-Brexit candidates, and the Alliance have done themselves a great dis-service in the manner of their rejection. I don’t however agree that an Abstentionist Candidate should necessarily be a deal breaker and Dodds is worse on other issues. The removal of a Brexiteer is still a gain even if the Remainer doesn’t take the Oath.
In fact, I would have preferred SF to have proposed Finucane as an Independent, in which case he would surely be favourite. One in the hand etc. Perhaps they’ve been overly ambitious. However, they have been ambitious in the past and won, – maybe they know more than we do.
Minor mix up’s are totally understandable particularly during election campaigns. No apology is necessary, though graciously accepted.
I don’t threaten your party. I draw your attention to the risk of being collateral damage when stepping in-between two big beasts.
I hope that you get an equal distribution of votes across the constituency so that if it is very close, you’ll have had a neutral effect on who gets elected and your party won’t be negatively effected.
Applying a weighting to districts your canvasing for example, could help you achieve that.
I’m sure the Greens and SF will get on very well into the future. Mind they don’t steal your clothes though !
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The spelling of temperament may have been luck. Despite buying the largest phone I could, my sausage fingers provided an endless stream of typos (as I am sure you can see).
As I stated from the off, I don’t think a SF candidate can dislodge Dodds. regardless of how good he or she may be. If Finucan had been a proposed (Non abstaining pro choice) independent, you might have seen a consensus across a range of parties. There would have been something beautifully symbolic of him critiquing the UK Govt with Parliamentary privilege. Unfortunately, that opportunity is gone as he is now standing for a party that denies too many people from getting their own truth and justice.
We are not afraid of any of the bigger parties. One already is gunning for us. If I was personally afraid, I would have stayed in the closet. As a party, we would never have contested or put our vision forward.
I go back to the point that if SF don’t take the seat, it’s more to do with the toxicity of their brand than the presence of other parties. I just can’t see nearly an additional 6,000 – 7,000 people in North Belfast voting for SF.
I don’t know what you mean about weighting the districts we are canvassing. As a small party with limited resources (and the only one that publishes all donations over £500 and refuses corporate ones) we have to be tactical in where we canvass. My vote has so far been concentrated in some specific areas. Those are the saplings we are nurturing.
Did you see our call for progressive taxation? 2% wealth tax on the top 1%. What you think? An idea that SF and others can get behind?
Re stealing clothes, the Shinners have tried it. They are certainly trying with marriage, but the Greens brought the first motion, and I was former Vice-Chair of the Marriage campaign. When Steven passed the Children’s Bill, OFMDFM released a presser with no mention that it was a Private Member’s Bill and tried to take the credit for it.
They are not the only party though. Alliance doing exactly the same on transparency, gender balance of candidates and now a 2nd Brexit referendum.
It’s like the environment. We were the only people talking about it 30 years ago. Now (almost) everyone does. We are happy to be in the progressive vanguard of issues. If the policy becomes mainstream and implemented then that is good enough. We are not overly precious.
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Did you see FAHAs analysis of North Belfast?
Similar to mine. They suggest a perfect storm of sf turnout from AE17 plus huge tactical voting from alliance, green, PBP and sdlp votes being the only way for SF to win. They should great it requires all of these elements.
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Yes Gaygael,
I saw it. Faha predicts 42% DUP to 40 % SF. That is very close and well within any margin of error. As I said, the odds may be against Finucane but he has a very real chance.
Where I would disagree with Faha is in saying that a number of factors need to coincide. However, when working off previous low turnouts, all other factors and predictions can be swept aside in a surge of new voters for a popular new candidate (I’m not talking about you here).
No-one can estimate the effect a Candidate with a decent chance of actually winning, will have on the turnout of previous stay at home Nationalist voters.
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Well I’m much more in line with FAHA from my original analysis. I do have a little bit of form having called Naomi Long in 2010, and Gerry Carrolls council breakthrough in 2014 (despite guffaws of derision from Shinners). I think Dodds will be higher than 42%. Last time it was 47%. I’m more inclined to think 45% ish. I think Finucane will be up around 37%. It’s a decent closing of the gap and augurs well for a remodelled constituency.
I’m not a new candidate. I stood at the most recent 2 Assembly elections. I have been slugging my guts out on activism for years and years and years. I look forward to seeing John at protests, demos and rallies in the future. Heck I will even introduce him to some people in the queer activist movement when he turns up.
Your last point is true. I remember the clarion calls in 2015 when SF threw the kitchen sink at North Belfast telling people they could win. They ended 13% and 5.5k votes behind. That sectarian leaflet probably didn’t help but the SDLP were still squeezed a bit.
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http://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/filmmaker-ken-loach-backs-sinn-13109674
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/revealed-how-many-sinn-fein-supporters-back-westminster-abstention-policy-35869874.html
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