Below is part one of Faha’s much anticipated analysis for the forthcoming Assembly elections – BD
This is the first of my two part series on the constituencies for the March 2nd Assembly election. In this first series I will cover the 9 constituencies outside of the Belfast area. Here is some of the background I will go over prior to analyzing each constituency.
This chart shows the differential turnout between the Catholic and Protestant community background in the 2016 Assembly election. It is based on the 2016 constituency census data (extrapolated from the 2011 census) and the transfer pattern from nonsectarian parties. As you can see, with a few exceptions, most constituencies had a much lower turnout from the nationalist electorate compared to the unionist electorate. Overall nationalist turnout was 7% less than unionist turnout. If it had been equal to unionist turnout another 45,000 voters would have voted
2016 Assembly Election
This chart shows the difference in turnout for each constituency comparing the May 2016 Assembly election with the June Brexit referendum. In every constituency (except West Belfast) there was an increase in voter turnout for the Brexit referendum.
It is estimated at 110,000 more voters (the number in the chart is 96,209 but since EU nationals could not vote in the Brexit vote the 110,000 is the actual change) voted in the Brexit referendum. From the results it appears that most of those additional voters were nationalist, Alliance, Green and pro EU UUP voters. The pre-election Lucid Talk poll, which predicted the final result to within 1%, indicated that 85% of nationalist, Alliance and Green voters were against Brexit and 85% of unionist voters were pro Brexit.
These Brexit results indicate that if an Assembly election had been held the same day then the unionist parties would have received 44% of the vote and nationalist, Alliance and Green parties would have received 56% of the vote.
2016 Brexit Referendum
This chart shows the Lucid Talk polls from April 2016 and January 2017. I compared the April 2016 poll with the January 2017 poll and calculated the difference in the 3rd column. The last column indicates the difference between the January 2017 poll and the actual Assembly results from 2016. The Lucid Talk poll was very accurate in predicting the overall total vote for nationalist parties, unionist parties and nonsectarian parties. It underestimated the vote for the DUP and overestimated the vote for the UUP, Alliance and smaller unionist parties. Part of the underestimate for the DUP and overestimate for the smaller unionist parties is due to the fact that the smaller unionist parties did not compete in all constituencies. Thus, some of their voters choose the DUP instead by default. Keep in mind that the poll has a +/- accuracy of 3% so it compares very favourably with the actual results.
The January 2017 poll shows little change from the April 2016 poll. The only party change that may be statistically significant is the increase for PBP and possibly the decline for the UUP. All the other changes are too small to determine if they are actually real. However, the overall 3.76% decline for unionist parties is significant. Statistically, the real decline could be anywhere from only 0.76% to as high as 6.76%.
The January 2017 poll did note a few trends. Almost half mentioned the Health Service and RHI as important issues followed by Education, Equality and the Economy. Almost ¼ mentioned Brexit as an important issue followed by Irish Language and Irish Unity. It was also noted that a “large” number of DUP voters in 2016 said they would vote for other parties (primarily UUP) in this election. However, the actual poll results do not seem to indicate this but it could be due to DUP oversampling in this poll. Responses to questions on transfers showed that SDLP and UUP voters are now more likely to give 2nd preferences to each other. The most significant change is that UUP voters are more likely to give their 2nd preference to Alliance and the SDLP rather than the DUP. This is how UUP voters indicated their 2nd preference:
SDLP 25.3%
Alliance 23.7%
DUP 5.8%
TUV 19.0%
Other Unionist 11.6%
SF 1.6%
PBP 2.6%
Green 3.2%
That trend could have a profound impact on the election prospects for DUP candidates. Unionist voters do not appear to have noticed any increased interest in voting in this election but nationalist voters have noticed increased interest among family, friend and coworkers in voting in 2017. This sounds plausible since 2016 unionist nonvoters have no reason to vote in this election. Brexit was passed in Westminster this week and the RHI scandal would certainly not increase unionist turnout for the DUP. Nationalist and nonsectarian voters appear to be more likely to vote this year with impending Brexit and its impact on Northern Ireland a big issue.
There will be additional Lucid Talk polls on February 13 and February 27th will provide more insight on the state of the electorate.
The following are the constituency profiles.
I have included the demographic data, 2016 Assembly results, the new quota with 5 seats and the Brexit vote.
FOYLE
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None | ||
| 79,679 | 59,941 | 17,644 | 641 | 1,453 | ||
| 75.23% | 22.14% | 0.80% | 1.82% | |||
Total 39,702
Quota 6,617
EU Referendum Turnout 40,987 (+1,285)
Remain 78%
Leave 22%
Both the SDLP and SF should elect 2 on transfers since they are close to 2 quotas (33.3%). In 2016 Dr. McCloskey had 4,227 votes at the last count, almost 1,200 votes behind Eamonn McCann. Gary Middleton of the DUP was elected with 6,641 votes and had a surplus. However with the higher quota in 2017 he would barely be above the quota. He is likely to receive fewer transfers this time but should be close to a quota. There are only 2 scenarios in which Eamonn McCann could be elected. There could be a decline in unionist turnout or an increase in nationalist turnout. If nationalist turnout were to increase by 3,000 votes the quota would be 500 higher and the DUP would be 500 votes short of a quota and Eamonn McCann would be elected. There were 1,285 more voters who did vote in the EU referendum so this scenario is possible.
EAST DERRY
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None | ||
| 79,650 | 33,062 | 43,080 | 566 | 2,942 | ||
| 41.51% | 54.09% | 0.71% | 3.69% | |||
New Quota 5,733
EU Referendum Turnout 40,563 (+6,164)
Remain 52%
Leave 48%
The DUP should elect 2 here even with a decline in their 1st preference. There should also be 1 SDLP and 1 SF elected. If you look at the stage 9 count last year this is where the SDLP and SF vote was.
SDLP 4,172
SF (Archibald) 4,139
SF (O’Hoisin) 3,532
Since the SDLP was ahead of both SF candidates the SDLP candidate will be elected. Since the total nationalist vote equaled 11,843 and 2 quotas is 11,466 both SF and the SDLP should elect one. The only complication factor this time is that there is essentially a 2nd SDLP candidate as the current SDLP MLA, Gerard Mullan, has decided to stand as an independent. John Dallat’s 1st preference vote was 2,000 votes higher in 2011 compared to Gerard Mullan in 2016 so the latter will likely be eliminated. The 5th seat will come down to the UUP and Claire Sugden. Claire Sugden seemed unwilling to stand up to the DUP during the recent RHI debate at Stormont so this could hurt her chances for receiving transfers from Alliance or nationalist voters. If those additional 6,164 Brexit voters turn out there could be significant surplus of nationalist voters who will determine whether the UUP or Claire Sugden wins the 5th seat.
The following 3 constituencies I group together because they all have one demographic in common. The Protestant voting age population is in the 31% or lower range which is less than 2 quotas (33.33%).
WEST TYRONE
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None | ||
| 71,747 | 48,604 | 21,926 | 286 | 931 | ||
| 67.74% | 30.56% | 0.40% | 1.30% | |||
New Quota 6,468
EU Referendum Turnout 40,039 (+1,252)
Remain 67%
Leave 33%
I included a former SF member candidate in the SF total and 2 former SDLP councilor candidates in the SDLP total since these 3 candidates left their parties just prior to the election. The SDLP should elect one here since even in the 2015 Westminster election their vote was 16.67%. SF would need to be very close to 50% to elect 3. They are short by almost 6% but there are some possible transfers from the 5.76% nonsectarian voters (Alliance, Green, others). The main problem for SF here is the low nationalist turnout which was 52% in 2016 versus 65% for the unionist electorate. Since this is a border constituency Brexit will be a big issue here. The prospect of a hard border with Donegal could increase nationalist turnout which could potentially elect a 3rd SF MLA. If the nationalist turnout reaches 60% there will be 3 SF elected otherwise there will be 1 UUP and 1 DUP elected with only 2 SF.
MID ULSTER
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None | ||
| 76,858 | 51,112 | 24,033 | 358 | 1,355 | ||
| 66.50% | 31.27% | 0.47% | 1.76% | |||
New Quota 6,791
EU Referendum Turnout 42,411 (+1,683)
Remain 60%
Leave 40%
The SDLP should elect one here as they are just short of a quota but should receive enough Alliance and Green transfer to reach a quota. SF would be 2.5% short of the 50% they need to elect 3. Low nationalist turnout (50% versus 60% unionist) is all that is preventing SF from electing 3. In the 2011 Assembly election SF had 49.2% and the SDLP 14.7% and there was 3.3% for independent nationalist and 1% for Alliance. With the 2011 results SF would have elected 3 and the SDLP one with the DUP winning the 5th seat. Another 2,000 nationalist voters in 2017 is all that is needed for 3 SF. The presence of Michelle O’Neill as a candidate and new SF leader could be enough to bring out those additional 2,000 nationalist voters.
NEWRY AND ARMAGH
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None |
| 88,081 | 58,598 | 26,966 | 522 | 1,995 |
| 66.53% | 30.62% | 0.59% | 2.26% |
New Quota 7,953
EU Referendum Turnout 50,622 (+2,929)
Remain 63%
Leave 37%
The SDLP should elect one here since they are above a quota. SF are further away from electing 3 here as they would need to increase their vote from the current 41% to over 45% to be close enough to elect 3 on transfers. Again, the problem for SF here is low nationalist turnout which is 11% less than unionist turnout. If nationalist turnout approaches 60% then SF will elect 3 here. If that occurs the DUP and UUP will be in a close battle for the final seat. Brexit should be a big issue here since obviously a hard border will affect this constituency in a significant way.
FERMANAGH SOUTH TYRONE
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None |
| 81,074 | 46,746 | 31,962 | 532 | 1,834 |
| 57.66% | 39.42% | 0.66% | 2.26% |
New Quota 7,863
EU Referendum Turnout 48,158 (+1,010)
Remain 59%
Leave 41%
This constituency is one of the most difficult to predict for obvious reasons. Based on the 2016 vote there would be 2 DUP and 1 UUP elected with 2 SF. The 2016 vote showed that after transfers the nationalist electorate was 51% and the unionist electorate 49%. SF could not elect 3 since they would need all of the SDLP vote as well as those Alliance, Green and Other transfers that go to the SDLP to transfer through to SF. Starting with a base vote of 39.95% they are too far away from 50% to elect 3. The DUP were just short of 2 new quotas and the UUP would elect one on transfers. The nationalist turnout was a full 20% less than the unionist turnout. However, it is now 2017 and the RHI scandal is now major news with Arlene Foster of the DUP the main candidate here. How this will affect the unionist vote and overall vote is unknown. Brexit and the prospect of a hard border will also be an important issue here. The UUP MP here, Tom Elliot, voted in favour of Brexit in Westminster this past week. One thing is certain over the years is that unionist voters are very reliable voters and will vote in every election so there will be 22,000 to 23,000 unionist votes. The question is how those votes will be distributed among the DUP and UUP. The Lucid Talk poll is indicating a shift from the DUP to the UUP. In the 2011 Assembly election the UUP received more than 3,000 1st preference votes compared to 2016. If 2,000 of those return to the UUP then the UUP candidate will be elected with Alliance and Green transfers. If it is 2,500 then even the transfers will not be needed. Whether the 2nd DUP will be elected will depend on balancing between Foster and Morrow and nationalist turnout. It will be very difficult for the DUP to balance their candidates here since they do not know how the RHI scandal will affect Arlene Foster’s 1st preference vote. Obviously they need to push the 1st preference vote in Arlene Fosters’ direction since her defeat would be a major defeat for the DUP. For SF there is a sweet spot for increasing nationalist turnout. If it increases to 52% to 54% then they will elect 3 on transfers. However, if it increases to 55% or more then this scenario favours the SDLP. That is because the 3rd unionist candidate would then be polling 10% or less and would be eliminated. Enough of their transfers would go to the SDLP to elect the SDLP candidate. If nationalist turnout is in the 52% to 53% range then the SDLP candidate would probably poll less than the 3rd unionist candidate and would be eliminated instead.
UPPER BANN
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None |
| 92,513 | 40,880 | 46,748 | 809 | 4,076 |
| 44.19% | 50.53% | 0.87% | 4.41% |
New Quota 7,614
EU Referendum Turnout 51,812 (+6,159)
Remain 47%
Leave 53%
The combined SF-SDLP vote in the final count was 17,236 which is 2,000 votes over 2 quotas so there will be 2 nationalist MLA’s elected. O’Dowd of SF finished 167 votes ahead of Kelly of the SDLP but there were 1,260 Alliance and UUP voters who did not transfer to anyone. There will be 3 unionists elected but in 2016 the DUP were 2% short of 2 new quotas on their 1st preference vote. This has traditionally been a strong constituency for the UUP and any significant decline in the DUP vote could result in 2 UUP MLA’s elected. However, the Lucid Talk poll is not indicating such a dramatic shift. There were over 6,000 additional voters who voted in the Brexit referendum and it appears that nationalist turnout may have been close to unionist turnout. If those nationalist voters turn out for the Assembly election then 2 UUP could be elected with nationalist transfers.
SOUTH DOWN
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None | ||
| 84,986 | 58,906 | 23,152 | 477 | 2,451 | ||
| 69.31% | 27.24% | 0.56% | 2.88% | |||
New Quota 6,846
EU Referendum Turnout 47,701 (+6,649)
Remain 67%
Leave 33%
At the Stage 4 count in 2016 these were the party vote totals:
SF 13,321
SDLP 14,957
DUP 6,470
UUP 5,567
The SDLP are 1,267 votes above 2 quotas and SF are 371 votes short of 2 quotas so 2 SF should be elected with SDLP transfers. Subsequent stage counts in 2016 only involved DUP and SF transfers which will not occur in 2017 due to the higher quota. The DUP is at risk of losing out to the UUP for the 1 unionist seat if their vote declines in this election. There were also an additional 6,649 voters who voted in the Brexit referendum and if significant number of these vote then the UUP should win on nationalist transfers.
NORTH ANTRIM
| All usual residents | Catholic | Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related) | Other religions | None |
| 86,546 | 24,618 | 57,871 | 644 | 3,413 |
| 28.44% | 66.87% | 0.74% | 3.94% |
New Quota 6,833
EU Referendum Turnout 49,720 (+8,742)
Remain 38%
Leave 62%
This constituency is straightforward. The TUV will elect one since they are above a quota. SF will elect one on SDLP transfers. The UUP 1st preference vote is almost 6% less than a quota but with unionist transfers (including TUV) as well as Alliance, Green and SDLP transfers the UUP candidate should be elected. Only 2 DUP will be elected. However, if the Brexit electorate was the electorate for this election then there would be 2 nationalist candidates elected, both SF and SDLP. In 2016 the nationalist turnout was only 36% and the unionist turnout 52%. In the Brexit referendum they appear to have been equal.
Obviously many of the 5th seats will be determined by which electorate votes in the election: the 2016 Assembly electorate or the 2016 Brexit referendum electorate.
"We in coming days may be" 
thorough analysis – well done Faha
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The SDLP has two very good LGBT candidates: Connor Duncan and Seamas de Faoite. Also 38% of SDLP candidates are women.
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so what
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There is a lack of LGBTQ+ candidates standing for parties. I think the Greens deserve praise for this to be fair as well as the SDLP.
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I am not in the slightest bit interested, it is a diversion from what is important. How de they hope to fi the lack of GP’s for instance.
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Yeah Crotier. Representative politics isn’t important. Let’s go back to 1965.
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And what or who defines what is to be represented?
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I think that there is an onus on representative democracy to try to at least look like the society it purports to represent.
I guess you supported the premise of more representative politics when we had a gerrymandered unionist representation. Why stop now?
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What can be done to increase the nationalist turnout.?
Only increased votes and seats can achieve equality and change.
Why are so many choosing not to vote?
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I don’t think much can currently be done, the simple fact that the nationalist parties are a choice between tweedle dee and tweedle dumb – two left wing parties of differing deference to Mama Britain. We need a centrist/right wing party to maximise votes
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Fianna Fail running in 2019 locals. Centre left in opposition. Centre right/centrist in government.
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Can’t see it, here we are in 2017 and no candidates or local organisation
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It will be an interesting election. For years when there were 6 seats there were so many potential nationalist gains with just a slight increase in turnout but it never materialised and its the same again. I think WT and Mid-Ulster can return 4 nationalists and FST and North Belfast 3 but only if Nationalists bother their heads and with RHI and the Irish language act if they cant be bothered now then they never will be and recent history doesnt look good. Twaddell and all that carry on didnt seem to motivte North Belfast so Im not hopefull. Perfect storm resulting in the above predictions and Eamon McCann in Foyle could leave Nationalist on 39 seats (including PBP) and Unionist on 41 and that would probably be a fair reflection of where we are at unfortunately the above predictions wont materialise and we will have nationalists on 34 and Unionist on 46 which is what we have been getting for the last 10 yrs. So get out and vote to reduce the DUP mandate and at least get them below 30 to stop any more abuse of the petition of concern.
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I agree that the worst case scenario for nationalist seats is 34 with unionist at 47. The unwillingness of Alliance voters to transfer to the DUP and the decline in UUP transfers to the DUP will change those numbers but it totally depends on an increased nationalist turnout for any significant change.
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Faha, excellent analysis as usual. There seem to be 2 significant known unknowns that appear to be volatile. The first being the possible increase in Nat% and the 2nd the possible decline in the DUP vote. You would think that with Brexit round the corner giving SF a stronger mandate would be enough to motivate the Nat electorate (as you suggest) and scandal surrounding the DUP would bolster the UUP at the DUPs expense.
I think, as I suspect you do(?), that we will be largely back where we were with the DUPs lead cut and a small increase for SF(reversing recent trends) with a period of direct rule until the RHI mess is cleared up with the British pushing through something on victims and the Irish language.
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Sammy,
The DUP vote will be down but the overall unionist vote may decline only slightly since unionist voters seem to be almost immune to scandals involving unionist parties. In 2011 the total unionist vote was 319,000 which declined from 340,000 in 2007 due to the Robinson family scandals. That effect was short lived since it rebounded to 344,000 in 2015. It may be down slightly in 2017 due to RHI.
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Faha,
Of course they got it wrong about Brexit and Trump but the bookies (Paddy Power) have SF at 5/1 to win the most seats and the DUP at 1/7.
Interestingly Arlene is not nearly as much a favourite to be First Minister at 4/9.
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Interesting Faha. Thank you very much.
Lots to crunch and debate. Can I ask where you got the detailed data of uup transfers. The lucid talk stuff I saw had this order, alliance, green, sdlp and Dup 4th.
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Go to the Lucid Talk site and on the far right there is the Lucid Talk f Like Page. Scroll down and you will come to LT January Tracker Poll where they have the unionist parties voters 2nd preferences. I have not seen anything for SF, SDLP, Alliance and Green 2nd preferences yet on their site.
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Much appreciated.
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The fall in the nationalist vote? The atrocious quality of northern nationalist politicians coupled with the apathy of northern Irish Catholics! I work with 30 year olds from the strand and new lodge who read the Sun and haven’t watched or participated in Gaelic games in their puff. No eff all of the Irish language.They are not registered and have no intention. They have british passports because it’s handy.they don’t celebrate St Patrick’s day…Etc etc
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To be honest these things are not necessary to believe the economic case for a United Ireland. Celebrating St Patricks day has little to do with nationalism anyway, its a cross-community thing for all Christian religions in Ireland.
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This is my explanation for the fall in the nationalist vote.apathy ,contentment with the status Quo.what’s yours?
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I think people are actually rather unimpressed with the lead nationalist party’s performance in government in terms of its policies. Note that the greatest nationalist turnout happened when the SDLP was the lead nationalist party.
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The SDLP received 178000 votes in 1998. The vote last May was 83000. Nationalists are so unimpressed with Sinn Fein they decide to punish the SDLP? I will agree to a point that Sinn Fein’s performance has recently been unimpressive but it’s clear Nationalists do not see the SDLP as a better option.
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There was a problem that was generational but that is now over and I believe that the SDLP will get more votes this year than last.
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I’m afraid that notion my be proved somewhat delusional,can we please now draw a line under the blatant electioneering?
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Bangordub I contribute to the analysis here from a broad SDLP perspective. I hope that is okay with you.
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All further electional nonsense will be deleted
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Bangordub I tend to come at poltics with a political perspective that is broadly sympathetic to SDLP analysis and values. I think it would be a shame people with this set of views, perspectives, and thinking are excluded.
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Do you have any idea how much of the difference in turnout between unionists and nationalists is simply due to an age differential? The unionist population is older and obviously older people have higher voting rates. Have nationalist parties made any new attempts to get younger voters to vote in this year’s election, targeted students, social media campaigns, etc? Are young nationalists even registered?
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Very good points there Gavin,
Absolutely correct regarding the age profiles. What I can say is that the nationalist parties are way ahead regarding engagement on social media and support for social policies that tend to be of greater relevance to younger people. Whether that translates into votes is the interesting point and remains to be seen
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Nick whyte has started his round up and reckons SF are in trouble for a second seat in South Down. If that happens then its going to be a grim day for nationalism because even in worst case scenario for nationalists i dont see that happening. Salmon of data has crunched some numbers on slugger and it doesnt look too good for the SDLP on his model. Will be intersting to see how it all goes
http://nwhyte.livejournal.com
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The problem is that they were probably way ahead re: social media last year too. The truth is that those most likely to get off their sofas and vote probably don’t spend a lot of time on social media. Also, like it or not, very few people go to bed worrying about LGBT issues & an Irish Language Act or waken up with these as their foremost thoughts. We also consistently make the error of correlating those born Catholics as being automatically Nationalists (or particularly worried about the Border either way). Hopes for a Nationalist surge on March 2nd are likely to result in disappointment – the most likely gainers in real terms will be Alliance, Greens & PBP.
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Unfortunately Vince, I think you’re right. The campaigns have been very lacklustre so far. The only hope is that Trump and BREXIT show people the importance of voting. If I was in either Nationalist party I’d focus the campaign on getting non-voters to the polls rather than attack the other party. The focus should be on 2 issues. 1. Harm of BREXIT. 2. DUP refusal to accept nationalist as being equal.
All other issues, even the Border, are secondary at this time.
“Not voting is a vote for BREXIT” and “Not voting is a vote for DUP Inequality” would be my focus.
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I fail to see why this is about Brexit, that is a bolted horse, also the influence of assembly members on any subsequent outworking is minimal. As far as nationalism is concerned it should be about what exactly the Assembly will do and what is wanted. So far nationalist parties are not saying what there program for govt will be, what red lines they have if any, and how they intend to get it. I believe that reason for this is that they know they can do and get nothing. They cannot expose their impotence to the nationalist electorate as they know they will not bother voting. What they do not realise the nationalist voter knows this anyway and they are not bothering voting for people who can do nothing for them.
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The main issue here is how the SDLP /Sinn Fein will get voters out in increased numbers.
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Agree with that Gavin. DUP should be the focus of the campaign – competence, corruption, fairness the key messages (culturally, economically and in everyday lives). DUP really don’t want to talk about these issues – happy to deflect. The border is not on the ballot paper in this election, at least not in a true sense.
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Hi Faha,
Interesting analysis as ever. As you know, I differ from you on methodology – I don’t see how you can describe people who have not voted for a Nationalist party, or at least not in the last ten to fifteen years, as Nationalist voters. I believe it is better to make a clear distinction between “census Catholics”/”census Protestants” and “Nationalists”/”Unionists”. The overlap is significant, of course, but it is far from 100%.
On specific constituencies…
Foyle: There are only 2 scenarios in which Eamonn McCann could be elected. Actually there is a third which you omit: that he himself gets more votes, which is surely not to be discounted. And his votes are more likely to come from Nationalist parties because a) they are his natural constituency and b) there are more of them to draw on. So I think it’s rather likely that if he is re-elected it will be linked to a lower vote share for Nationalist parties.
East Londonderry: Your Stage 9 figures are correct, but they include 160 votes that came to SF and 900 that came to the SDLP from Unionist and Alliance transfers, which will be in shorter supply this year. On first preferences, Nationalists start from 1.9 quotas and Unionists from 3.8. I agree that Mullan is likely to be eliminated but I think his votes will not transfer sufficiently to keep two Nationalist seats, the SDLP being more likely to lose out. But it is very difficult to call, one of the most difficult in the entire election.
West Tyrone: As so often, I disagree with your methodology but I agree with your conclusion, that SF’s third seat is the most vulnerable.
Mid Ulster: I actually think that having the party leader in the constituency makes it much more difficult to balance votes for three candidates in such a tight situation, and therefore I rate the third SF seat as the most vulnerable.
Newry and Armagh: Again I disagree with your methodology but I agree with your conclusion, that SF’s third seat is the most vulnerable.
FST: You don’t make a prediction here for me to disagree with! But I think the SDLP are most likely to lose a seat.
Upper Bann: again difficult to call, but unless the UUP enjoy a massive surge they will be the ones who lose. I think we can’t exclude an SDLP comeback either, but it would be at the expense of SF.
South Down: A lot depends on what happens to those who voted for John McCallister in 2016. I think they are habitual voters who will come back to the main Unionist parties this time. I also think SF takes a hit through the retirement of Cat Seeley, and that makes their second seat the more vulnerable. But it’s a tough call.
North Antrim: Agree that the DUP drop one out of three.
Overall: I expect the 2017 Assembly voters to map the 2016 Assembly election much more than the referendum, for reasons that should be obvious.
Thanks again for providing food for thought.
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Thank you very much Nicholas. Excellent analysis. Encouraging to see you think that the SDLP are going to hold on in West Tyrone. As for West Belfast encouraging to see you are not writing off Alex Attwood’s prospects totally.
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On reflection – I had missed that the McCallister voters in South Down generally did not transfer to anyone in 2016. That means I can’t count them as Unionists, in which case the UUP are in much the most vulnerable position, and the seat lost will likely be a Unionist one.
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Nicholas,
Have you factored in potential effect of an increased nationalist turnout? This seems to be a possibility
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Are you hearing this on the doorstep Bangordub?
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I haven’t been on any doorsteps SDLP but I’m certainly hearing that it may happen
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Cat Seeley has retired from Upper Bann and not South Down. Caitríona Ruane is the retiree there. But no matter, I really only see one Unionist seat here. The UU candidate was elected on Wells’ transfers of which there will be a lot fewer. Nat/Rep will need somewhere in the range of 27,500 votes including transfers from Alliance/Greens for four quotas. That is just about achievable but agree that those votes will be hard to spread evenly. Very interesting constituency this one.
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I will be shocked/disappointed if the nationalist vote does not improve from 2016.
If young Catholics are too lazy to vote, then they deserve to be discriminated against.
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What about Catholics who disagree with gay marriage and abortion?
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This is an exciting election for Irish nationalism. Turnout is set to increase among the nationalist part of the population. This can have a key determinative role in affecting the expected number of MLAs that are returned to the next assembly, with a step change in the balance in proportions of unionist and nationalist seats. Added to the reduction in MLAs down by a further 5 at the next election to 85 when there is a constituency re-jig, we are looking at a situation where there is a real tipping point around the corner in the next few short years.
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What is the name of this English Organisation that gave the DUP 250,000 pounds?
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Who says it’s English?
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-man-targeted-in-petrol-bomb-attack-in-bangor-35468158.html
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https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay-peter-geoghegan/electoral-commission-contradict-dup-on-brexit-donor-transparency
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