Good evening,
I’ve been quiet of late due to a combination of some number crunching on behalf of nameless third parties, the summer silly season and some domestic stuff of no consequence. At the suggestion of commenter Jon Wallace I’ve begun some 
background work on continuing Horsemans annual balance sheet analysis for 2014. Enda, over at Endgame in Ulster, has previously done some good work on this here.
The general idea is to analyse demographic changes over the previous year and apply the findings to likely future trends. I’m happy as the proverbial Pig in the brown stuff doing this type of number crunching. The key figures are based around census returns, births, deaths, immigration, emigration, community background and, of course, election results. It may take me a while!
I’d spent a couple of hours on this today when I stumbled upon some interesting conclusions that I thought were worth sharing with you.
The 2001 Census results for community background by age were as following:
| 2001 | ||||
| Age Band | Catholic (%) | Protestant (%) | Other (%) | None (%) |
| 0 to 4 | 49.1 | 43.1 | 0.4 | 7.4 |
| 5 to 9 | 49.5 | 44.9 | 0.3 | 5.3 |
| 10 to 14 | 50.4 | 45.3 | 0.3 | 4 |
| 15 to 19 | 51.4 | 45.2 | 0.3 | 3.1 |
| 20 to 24 | 49.5 | 47 | 0.5 | 3 |
| 25 to 29 | 46 | 50.4 | 0.6 | 3 |
| 30 to 34 | 44.7 | 51.9 | 0.6 | 2.8 |
| 35 to 39 | 44.6 | 52.6 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
| 40 to 44 | 43.7 | 54 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| 45 to 49 | 42.2 | 55.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| 50 to 54 | 39.7 | 58.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 55 to 59 | 36.6 | 62 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| 60 to 64 | 35.8 | 63 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| 65 to 69 | 35.1 | 63.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| 70 to 74 | 33.4 | 65.8 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| 75+ | 30.2 | 69.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
This, extrapolated to the 2011 census should have led to the following:
| 2011 | BASED ON 2001 | |||
| Age Band | Catholic (%) | Protestant (%) | Other (%) | None (%) |
| 0 to 4 | ||||
| 5 to 9 | ||||
| 10 to 14 | 49.1% | 43.1% | 0.4% | 7.4% |
| 15 to 19 | 49.5% | 44.9% | 0.3% | 5.3% |
| 20 to 24 | 50.4% | 45.3% | 0.3% | 4.0% |
| 25 to 29 | 51.4% | 45.2% | 0.3% | 3.1% |
| 30 to 34 | 49.5% | 47.0% | 0.5% | 3.0% |
| 35 to 39 | 46.0% | 50.4% | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| 40 to 44 | 44.7% | 51.9% | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| 45 to 49 | 44.6% | 52.6% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 50 to 54 | 43.7% | 54.0% | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| 55 to 59 | 42.2% | 55.6% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| 60 to 64 | 39.7% | 58.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 65 to 69 | 36.6% | 62.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 70 to 74 | 35.8% | 63.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 75+ | 32.9% | 66.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
The actual 2011 figures were:
| 2011 ACTUAL | ||||
| Age Band | Catholic (%) | Protestant (%) | Other (%) | None (%) |
| 0 to 4 | 49.2% | 36.4% | 1.0% | 13.4% |
| 5 to 9 | 49.3% | 40.1% | 0.8% | 9.8% |
| 10 to 14 | 49.5% | 41.9% | 0.7% | 8.0% |
| 15 to 19 | 49.0% | 42.9% | 0.6% | 7.5% |
| 20 to 24 | 48.9% | 42.3% | 0.8% | 7.9% |
| 25 to 29 | 50.9% | 40.7% | 1.2% | 7.1% |
| 30 to 34 | 49.7% | 42.4% | 1.5% | 6.4% |
| 35 to 39 | 46.8% | 46.2% | 1.3% | 5.6% |
| 40 to 44 | 45.4% | 49.4% | 1.0% | 4.3% |
| 45 to 49 | 44.7% | 50.8% | 0.9% | 3.6% |
| 50 to 54 | 43.5% | 52.8% | 0.8% | 2.9% |
| 55 to 59 | 42.1% | 54.5% | 0.8% | 2.5% |
| 60 to 64 | 39.2% | 57.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% |
| 65 to 69 | 36.3% | 61.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| 70 to 74 | 35.4% | 62.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| 75+ | 31.3% | 67.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
There has been much speculation here and elsewhere regarding the effects of immigration/ emigration and the increasing trend towards secularisation so how far out was Horseman with his predictions? Not a lot is the answer, here is the variation between his predictions and the actual results:
| Difference | ||||
| Age Band | Catholic (%) | Protestant (%) | Other (%) | None (%) |
| 0 to 4 | ||||
| 5 to 9 | ||||
| 10 to 14 | 0.4% | -1.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 15 to 19 | -0.5% | -2.0% | 0.3% | 2.2% |
| 20 to 24 | -1.5% | -3.0% | 0.5% | 3.9% |
| 25 to 29 | -0.5% | -4.5% | 0.9% | 4.0% |
| 30 to 34 | 0.2% | -4.6% | 1.0% | 3.4% |
| 35 to 39 | 0.8% | -4.2% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| 40 to 44 | 0.7% | -2.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| 45 to 49 | 0.1% | -1.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 50 to 54 | -0.2% | -1.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 55 to 59 | -0.1% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 60 to 64 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 65 to 69 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 70 to 74 | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 75+ | -1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
My conclusion is that Horseman was incredibly accurate in his predictions. Regarding the Catholic proportion of the election he was accurate to within 1% in all bar two age groups and <1.6% in the exceptions. Regarding the Protestant community he was marginally less accurate but the difference is almost entirely accounted for by the other or none categories. I am yet to hear or see a reasoned argument countering his projections.
As always, it is actual votes that count in the real world. My thinking is that the nationalist electorate is somewhat under represented due to electoral apathy and low turnout. The way to turn that around is possibly to address the economic issues that motivate most people to turn out and vote. Perhaps it is about time for the economic case for a re-united Ireland to be coherently made.
"We in coming days may be" 
the economic case? contrast the two parts of Ireland and in particular Dublin and Belfast and form your opinion on whether it was better over the long term to leave or stay in the union.
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Have just watched and posted a film – Scotland Yet – about the independence movement in Scotland which, whatever the outcome of the referendum, has successfully overcome voter apathy.
This type of grass-roots movement is needed in Ireland to open up the debate about unity or not.
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If FF or FG put candidates up in the 6 counties and the said parties get wiped out at say a Stormont election, how exactly does that help the non unionist cause?
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It helps because it will get more nationalist votes out. They will only stand in Europe and stormont both stv elections and even a small ff fg vote could transfer elsewhere and make a difference
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To get things moving there’s needs to be momentum. Something really big or a series of game changer events that builds and turns into mass support. Some milestones that that show a trend in one direction.
This will increase support as the general public what to be associated with success. Up on a bandwagon!
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I agree Navanmeath,
I’m suggesting that a coherent economic strategy may be the way to go. Using the example of the Scottish debate, the economic argument is clearly being used by the No campaign as leverage to scare potential Yes and undecided voters. To my mind that is an open goal in this part of Ireland where the standard of living is so clearly less than the rest of the Island. In addition the advantages of economic sovereignty are clear and unambiguous in that context.
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I suggest there needs to be 2 different debates. One for nats on economics and another one for unionists on culture/identity. As a unionist is a unionist whatever the economic argument. the 6 north/south bodies were a good start but need a higher positive profile.
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Am i missing something here or do some people from the C/N/R liberal community not understand that a large section of unionism/loyalism wouldn’t give you a drink of water in the Sahara desert if you were on fire.
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Political Tourist: you don’t beat bullies by becoming one. Having a bigger flag or marking territory like they do wont work. The orange card has been played over the long years of our journey. So we know they won’t change but we can reduce their strength by votes and promoting a positive sense of being irish. Your deputy first minister is a good example of this. It is obvious the British establishment is warming to the green side. These unionist hardliners you talk about both failed and isolated themselves during the flag and parades protests. Orange card still working?
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navanman, my deputy first minister is Nicola Sturgeon.
She and her colleagues have managed to take the British State to the very brink without a shot being fired.
Even if they fail they will have done more than Northern Nationalism managed in nearly a 100 years.
Crikey, 6 county nationalism can’t even get their own vote out.
Maybe a change of leadership (without the baggage) might help.
A few fresh ideas might also not go amiss.
Irish Unity maybe one day.
I’d rather see what the North would look like without a unionist political majority first.
The small things, like having a catholic non unionist as First Minister.
Followed by majority rule as in real democracy.
The final last laugh at a ‘Protestant Parliament for a Protestant People’ that Horseman wanted.
I hope i live long enough to see it.
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The push for a united Ireland and the much more recent push for Scottish independence are not the same type of struggle with the same characteristics. Everyone in Scotland is Scottish but there are two completely different identities in the north. As not achieving anything in 100 years…the fact that SF are so strong despite all that’s been done to their community is a very real example of reliance (remember “smash SF” and all that. As for a change of personal. Gerry Adams has lead his party to the biggest growth of any party on this island. M McGuiness is winning plaudits as a statesman of real quality. Maybe the SDLP needs fresh blood. As for a Catholic FM..these are the type trigger points I think we all agree need to happen.
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A Re-United Ireland is inevitable.
A Nationalist majority by 2020, a Nationalist electoral majority by late 2020’s – the unionist community may well dip below the 40% mark by 2030.
Unionists will get pretty much what they want in an independent Re-United Ireland – but what exactly that “unionist shopping-list” contains remains to be seen, discussed and agreed upon.
It’s all good.
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I loved Horseman, but I always thought his basic assumptions about how a UI might were dysfunction. What he never predicted was the growth of a third group of people who are not unified by religion, or perhaps even politics.
There’s nothing inevitable in this life, not a free Scotland nor a unified Ireland. Salmond has transformed the prospects for greater independence (one way or another), in part through opportunity (the EU makes all manner of new relationships possible, or at least it does whilst its participants are prepared to continue pooling their sovereignty), and in part by doing the work necessary to convince less committed Scots that the cause of independence is worthy, valid and achievable.
In Ireland we still entertain the idea that a change in NI’s constitutional status can be achieved without the willing participation and consent of Protestants.
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There is no incentive for moderate Unionists to consider a Re-United Ireland at the moment while Unionists still have a majority, albeit a very slim one. A Nationalist majority from 2020 onwards is going to present a major challenge to Unionism, especially moderate Unionism.
The longer Unionists wait, the weaker their bargaining position becomes.
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You are ignoring the data though MM.
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Munsterman people were saying those things 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago. Unionists did bargain – the GFA. I don’t see that being revisited before a UI referendum. A UI referendum cannot be won until NI has a stronger economy.
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The first i heard of catholic numbers going up was around the time the provos called a halt in August 1994.
There was a subtext by some commentators that the rise in catholic numbers would lead to an UI without the need for armed struggle.
The date given for a UI was 2016, now it’s 2030???
Horseman in his later posts did say a non unionist majority in a NI political context was possible rather than a UI.
I await that day.
On the Scottish scene, i never believe a Home Rule parliament was possible, we tried and were conned out of it in the 1979 Referendum.
It happened in 1997.
I never i’d see a SNP Goverment using the present voting system.
The SNP have been in power now since 2006 with a landslide victory in 2011.
The future……who knows.
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Missing the point as much of the general discourse has. We can agree that there will be a CNR majority in the next 20 years. We dont know if this will materialise into a united ireland. Participation levels of the CNR community are the question and what their intentions will be.
While they may not vote to join the 26, once they have a majority they will vote to stop their community being put upon. Unionists dont care about the union, they care about power. They are in the process of harmonising with the republic on the grounds of taxation and abortion law.
When CNR start changing the laws around them, expect them to talk repartition with London. When its made clear that its a non starter, expect them to start talking to FG/FF about unification with benefits.
The more hardline the CNR, ironically in response to unionisms traditional stances on parading, flags and the Irish language, the quicker unionists will make advances to the southern elite. But it will be unionists wanting a united ireland rather than a SF dominated CNR community driving legislation in northern ireland.
In the next 20 years the ‘war leaders’ on both sides will be dead. Unionism will still have the fear (paranoia of the guilty) that what their grandfathers did will be done unto them and they will see a modern pluralist society to the south that they can cut a deal with.
In short, CNR in a majority will be content to use the system to further their aims without pushing for unification. The unionists will be pushing for it instead.
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Imagine the irony of a northern CNR majority voting no to a UI that ticked all the boxes of a Unionist shopping list.
Change the flag, the anthem? Nah we’ll just wait another 7 years for a UI that retains both, all the while continuing the purge of the Union Jack from public buildings and shutting down the handful of problematic parades.
Very unlikely, but not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
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I should go on to say that unionism will be come more fractured as the educated secularists increasingly see creationism, orangism and anti catholicism as an anathema to modern life. The not a step back unionism will brand them as lundies and so they will disengage, unwilling to band together at election time with those whose views are a throwback. Just as hardline unionists have alienated catholics who may have secured the union they will come to alienate secular unionists. When a CNR majority does not bring about the anticipated apocalypse it will bring about the collapse of unionism. With power gone, the raison detre of unionism is gone. Being part of the UK was only backup to counter nationalists when required. The idea was to be left alone to run their society as they saw fit as much controlled by religion as down south. Ironically, if there had been a unified solution in 1921, the compromise required would have been best for both sides.
Census results of 2021 will be leaked / digested and some form of unification will be in place by 2026
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I would suggest the Count is correct.
Unionists to cut a deal long term.
That would after working class loyalists have done an ISIS or more like a Rwanda style tantrum through a 30/40 radius of Belfast and Scotland closes the Port of Cairnryan.
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I would suggest the Count is correct.
Unionists to cut a deal long term.
That would be after working class loyalists have done an ISIS or more like a Rwanda style tantrum through a 30/40 radius of Belfast and Scotland closes the Port of Cairnryan.
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I get that six sigma feeling. Correlation does not imply causation. It’s all in the hands of the persuaders and going to take something more than a tertiary emotion like economics. All the data says to me is that it is all to play for.
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Regarding the economic question, this makes for interesting reading
http://inequalitybriefing.org/brief/briefing-43-the-poorest-regions-of-the-uk-are-the-poorest-in-northern-
The notion sometimes peddled that being part of the larger UK economy is better for the six counties is a complete fallacy. Time perhaps, to move away from the emotional arguments and into the pragmatic ones. Calculators out and no more singing ‘Four Green Fields’. An end to partition means convincing our neighbours that they have nothing to fear and plenty to gain from an independent Ireland.
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Correct – but moderate Unionists will be branded “Lundies” for entertaining the idea of a Re-United Ireland as long as there is a unionist majority. When Unionists are an electoral minority – from mid-2020’s onwards – then pragmatic, moderate unionists may be more receptive to solid arguments which secure their future in a Re-United independent Ireland – in their own best interests.
Ultimately, at some point, moderate Unionists will have to take some serious decisions – (i) strike a deal with Nationalist Ireland on their future within a UI – or (ii) throw their lot in with the extremists and fanatics in the Unionist camp.
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Not sure I can see a significant catholic majority emerging, from these figures.
The “brought up as Catholic” share of the population does not seem to be on an upward trend as people get younger from 35 – seems to be stuck at 49%.
Add to that: the % of people going to catholic secondary schools has never gone above about 46% and is now falling.
Makes you think that the catholic-brought-up share of the population my never reach 50%.
Not to mention that the “catholic religion” share will always be lower than “catholic brought up”.
Many children today have unmarried parents. But of those couples who marry in NI, only 34% are in Catholic ceremonies – about the same proportion as other religions, with another third going for civic.
Catholic share of the population is falling south of the border – that trend actually also was replicated in places like Strabane and Derry at the last census.
This should not be a problem for nationalism – I am very much NOT a follower of Horseman. I believe that the case for a UI should be made on arguments and that relying on demographics is actually harmful for a number of reasons not least that (I believe) there is no guarantee it would work in delivering a Catholic majority.
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I agree that relying on demographics to deliver a UI is perhaps unwise – ‘change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability’ as the fella said.
The onus is on Nationalism to put forward the arguments for reunification – these ideas seem slowly to be creeping out into wider society. Not fast enough for my liking, but you can’t have everything I suppose!
I can’t shake the notion that we’re witnessing the end of a certain sort of Unionism though. I found myself watching a small Black Perceptory march yesterday, and felt a strange kind of pity for the participants – not an emotion I would ordinarily associate with groups such as this. When was the last time you saw an English person wearing a bowler hat?
The sort of backwards looking, flat-earth mindset so prevalent within certain sections of political Unionism can only last for so long into the 21st Century. There’s a degree to which the rest of us are waiting for elements within Irish society to either catch up or die off. The process of change seems already to have begun.
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I would hold off on the pity for now RJC – those who put the MENTALIST into the word FUNDAMENTALIST still have a grossly disproportionate influence on the upper echelons of power in Northern Ireland. 2% of the population are members of the Loyal Orders yet 40% of the DUP Councillors, 50% of the DUP MLAs, 50% of all unionist MLAs and 75% of Unionist MPs are members.
This is the organization which as recent as 2011 said that only 6% of its members would be in favour of one of their children marrying someone who was Catholic and 60% think that “most Roman Catholics are IRA sympathisers”.
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Oh, don’t get me wrong I’m all too aware of the insidious influence of the ‘Loyal Orders’ here. It just seemed that any anger I may have towards them dissipated somewhat as I watched a group of bizarrely attired old men trudging uphill in the rain.
My poorly articulated thought is that it’s the attitudes you mention above which will eventually prove to be these people’s undoing. They have no place in a modern European democracy – those who continue to hold onto them will soon be swept aside as society marches forwards. By continuing to hold onto these backwards, bigoted and outdated beliefs those who hold them will be the architects of their own demise. The future does not belong to them.
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RJC,
that’s been the case for over 40 years – Stormont was prorogued for a reason.
I’m not convinced that an increase in the gulf between reason and foaming unionism is going to make any appreciable difference to trajectory or outcome. Think going from 1,000 celsius to 1,010 celsius.
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It is interesting to compare the official 2011 census percentages with the 2011 school census which was conducted later in 2011. For primary school age children the school census showed a Catholic percentage of 50.7%, which was 1.3% higher than the official census. The Protestant percentage in the school census was 38.96% and 41% in the official census, which was 2% less. The None group was 0.9% higher in the school census but in the school census that included people that did not answer the question ( the official census assigned these people to various religions). For both primary and secondary school students the Catholic population was 1.9% higher in the school census and the Protestant population was 1.6% less. The None group for the school census almost exactly matched the official census and was only 0.2% higher. The school census has 100% coverage for primary school age children. The official census did not count 158,000 people and there were another 60,000 who did not answer the religion question. It appears the census office was off quite a bit when they assigned a religion to those 218,000 people and based on the school census figures the Catholic population was at least 20,000 higher than recorded in the official census.
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Faha,
look at the 2001 census and how about 92% of the other/unknown/decline to declare were put into the Protestant group.
The only thing measured is religion or the assigned religious background, and as we all know religion is merely correlative with nationalism/unionism. Sorry for stating the bleedin’ obvious but the meaning is that as the numbers are drawing closer the error bars on catholic unionists and protestant nationalists start to become the deciding factor.
Unionist bigotry will tend to push CNRs back into the UI fold, so nationalism should strive to be the reasonable, phlegmatic, non-provocative, non-denominational side of the equation that tempts the lundies over the isle. I think that’s the best route we have to get to a UI in the mid-2020s. You can see this in how SF has calmly taken the maze prison u-turn, the Robinson affair (note they have never once used it to make political hay), also in how they tweak the noses of Unionism with the odd Republican parade which highlights their ranting hypocrisy.
In 10 years known under 40 and few under 45 will have personal memories of the conflict. In that time more and more of evil perpetrated by the British & Unionist state actors will have emerged.
2026 has looked about right for a successful border poll since the 2001 census there’s nothing yet brought to light that has substantially changed it, although it’s possible it could be a tad sooner.
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I have yet to be persuaded about this Norther Ireland has to be more economically advanced, better off, whatever before unity. Codswallop. It is self defeating from a nationalist point of view. We need NI to fail and keep failing. If no unionist will say, rightly, that economics dictate we keep the border as partition has economically worked. And what Nationalist doing well on the northern side of the border will upset his apple cart by completely changing the climate that caused the prosperity.
When asked what is the economic reason for leaving it is all here in the thread, falling living standards in comparison with the south, falling economic capacity in relation with the south, talk of street lights being left unrepaired, inability to fund a health service, inability to fund a welfare service. High levels of social and economic equality.
Better of in the south right now, the only possible argument is the NHS, but that is doomed, wasting money on lifestyle choices as well as rising medical costs done that fine idea down.
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Having a Northern Ireland which is not an economic basket-case is absolutely in nationalism’s best interest. When you dock a ship against the international space station you don’t just open lock on and the door because that’s a recipe for disaster, just ask Bruce Willis. Instead there is a process which normalizes the pressure on both sides of the door so it can be opened safely. Same here, if both sides of the border are normalized then opening the door will be much easier and not a recipe for disaster.
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What if the choice is “making NI work” or a UI?
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What if the choice is “making NI work” or a UI?
Why would there ever be such a choice? The end result here is for the people of Ireland to get what they want and in that scenario the people in 1 part should not suffer any more than the people in the other. If both parts are successful then the transition is smooth – more will vote for it on both sides of the border – but if one is successful and the other is a run-down shithole there is no chance.
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One would hope it’s not. The question was a counterpoint to your eminently rational position. If it did come down to that choice, what would your choice be?
“…if one is successful and the other is a run-down shithole there is no chance.”
If the south is a shithole you are quite correct, if it’s the north that’s a shithole and the south is succeeding I would say you are very, very wrong. We would be throwing the north a lifeline.
Also see east-west Germany as a complete and utter refutation of your assertion that it wouldn’t/couldn’t happen unless both were doing great.
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You think the majority in RoI will vote for reunification if NI was still the same economic basketcase it is today with extra financial burden falling on the taxpayers of RoI? I have seen nothing to suggest that the majority would vote to take that extra burden on – have you got anything?
Hell, I have seen nothing recent that suggests there is any appetite to take on reunification at all
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I refer you to East/West Germany again.
There hasn’t been any evidence that the south would not take the north on either.
I don’t agree with your continued assertion (and it is only your opinion) that a functioning NI is a pre-req for UI nor a non-economically functioning NI would prevent UI.
Your position is a purely utilitarian, logical position and does not seem to be taking into account people’s emotions, hopes & aspirations. Sure even economics is not rational as has been demonstrated by at least one UoC nobel laureate.
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I read your East/West Germany comparison but I don’t agree with it – bold type or otherwise. Germany would go on to become the biggest economy in Europe, 4th biggest by GDP in the world,they have strong service and manufacturing base and have a sub-7% unemployment rate. Ireland does not have anything even remotely comparable – in Northern Ireland we have 1 in 3 who are employed from the public purse and get on average 45% higher wages than that of private sector worker. The RoI came dangerously close to going under not too long ago and if they take on the added weight of NI in it’s current awful condition then it could very easily pull us all under. It has to be managed, there has to be a plan in place.
If you are relying on the electorate’s hopes and aspirations to bring about a UI then you’ll have a hell of a wait. Only 26% of the NI population are for the concept of a UI, 44% against the concept and 30% who don’t know – the ‘don’t knows’ need convincing that a UI is everyone’s best interests and hopes and aspiration won’t cut it. They will not jump blindly into the dark without knowing where they – and more importantly, their families – will land.
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The Scottish referendum will largely be decided by the floating voters – those with concerns over the practicalities i.e. their pocket
Those who have made their minds up instinctively on the basis of ideology probably wouldn’t shift irrespective(within limits) of the financial gain/loss.
(.. and Alex will lose in spite of fighting an excellent rear guard action – no battle of Sterling outcome unfortunately)
If we look to a UI vote in Ireland North and South the question is how many people are floaters and how many are committed? That is not clear. When you can have Southern SF reps on RTE praising the Northern Health service you can guess the size of the problem.
The three green fields, now emerging from bankruptcy, are in no fit state to take on green field number4 – until their difficulties are well behind them and that is presumably why SF have not seriously raised the issue in the South because they know Southern voters would not countenance the idea of paying/taking on the North in the current economic climate.
The low % who described themselves as Irish in the census suggests that Northerners are not sure they want to jump into economic bed with the South given the volatility of southern economics.
Now if UKIP and the Tories and the DUP are in coalition after the next election or the Tories scrape in on their own (unlikely scenarios but possible) and decide to exit stage left from Europe both Alex in Scotland and our own Gerry (Adams) will have good reason to be much more optimistic about constitutional change.
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As always, it depends on where you look.
NILT 2013 (I know, I know) had the percentage of Unionists at 29%, Nationalists at 25% and the other 46% as neither so they could be described as floaters:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2013/Political_Attitudes/UNINATID.html
Then again the BT poll (I know, I know) had 44% against the concept of a UI, 26% for the concept and 30% ‘Don’t know’ so they could be described as floaters:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/poll-just-38-want-a-united-ireland-29584149.html
But let’s use the NILT figures and an electorate of 1,210,000 (approx number registered to vote in the 2011 Assembly election). If we had an 80% turnout then the golden number for a referendum to win is roughly 484k votes. If Nationalism accounts for 25% of the vote (242k) then to get to the golden number they need to persuade roughly 55% of the ‘Don’t knows’
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Loving your figures Morpheus, it will be interesting to see how much the Yes campaign in Scotland narrows the gap over the course of the campaign. My own guess is that it will be close
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BD,
Before the campaign started I thought Alex would lose by at least 15 – now the difference might be under 10(I’m going for between 12 and 13) if he gets under 10 – that is a ‘victory’ for him all things considering.
His political arse/bacon has been saved by the No campaign offering DevoMax anyway – Alex can still claim a ‘victory’ in defeat.
If the Englezes do a runner from Europe – Alex can go again – and then he might just win.
For me the 2 best Political Strategists in these ‘British’ Isles are (our) Gerry and Alex (in that order) – with the UKIP man perhaps poised to overtake both.
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I sent you an email during the week on the *real* impact of Welfare cuts on the most vulnerable on our society BD – you get a chance to have a look? It makes for some harrowing reading
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Morpheus,
Yes I got it and thank you, Unbelievable stuff, am doing a blog on economics where I’m including it. Sammy, I agree, I’m predicting a 5% or less gap, that’s almost within the statistical margin of error. The last week will be interesting. I believe a week can be a long time in politics?
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Does kinda help the SNP that New Labour is pretty rightwing.
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The sight of a Labour politician defending Tory policies was excruciatingly delicious
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The Tory MPs defection to UKIP today may be very significant – if – and its a sizeable if, the now ex-Tory wins for UKIP in the bye-election – there may be panic in the Tory ranks. That may mean a pact with the Tories and UKIP (and the DUP) heralding if elected a serious challenge to the ‘United’ Kingdom if the British opt out of Europe.
We would then have border controls between North and South again and some attempt to police that border in a way not to many peoples liking. That would not be good for the ‘Peace Process’ .
The big winner would be Alex – assuming he loses by less that 15 – he will have a serious argument to say ‘lets go again’ and a serious chance of winning.
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What sort of a border is there between Norway and Sweden? I’m not being facetious, this is a genuine question.
If nothing else, we live in interesting times. Scottish referendum, possible UK/EU referendum, and a lurch to the right in British politics.
The rest of the decade may prove interesting in Europe, although I can’t see NI playing much part in the bigger picture. I suspect a Labour govt in Britain may be sympathetic to the Republican cause, but we appear to have been left to sort our own problems out.
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Top Ten Baby Boys names for 2013
1.Jack
2.James
3.Charlie
4.Harry
5.Daniel
6.Noah
7.Matthew
8.Ethan
9.Jacob
10.Oliver
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Top Ten Baby Girls Names In 2013
1.Emily
2.Grace
3.Sophie
4.Ella
5.Sophia
6.Lucy
7.Aoife
8.Amelia
9.Anna
10.Jessica
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It is well past time, Bangordub, that the economic case for a united Ireland was made. That’s not to say there aren’t other cases to be made for a UI but the economic one is, in my book, the lowest common denominator.
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Simply confirming the triggers for a border poll would be a start!
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Jude, I agree and I’m typing up a blog on the subject now 😉
Morpheus- The trigger will require a nationalist majority in Stormont, that is not far off in my opinion
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That might be a trigger BD…but then again it might not. It might be one of a few triggers…but then again it might not. It’s an opinion, one of many, hence why we need confirmation
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One of the reasons the economic case is not ‘made’ is because it is not very strong.
A common issue which is raised as ‘savings’ and the removal of ‘duplication’ but this argument misses the point.
As long as Britain pays the cost of the NHS Unemployment etc the people who will vote couldn’t give a fiddlers about ‘savings’ they will vote to get the NHS.
The reality is the ‘Republican’ party (FF) aided by a dumb press almost bankrupted the country and the debt will take decades to clear – but this has put off a UI until economic confidence is restored and welcome stories of a jump in employment wont change this – I’m guessing about 500,000 have left the country since gombeen Berty and his funny (peculiar) party brought the country to the verge of collapse – and this year there is a net loss(after immigration) of 40,000 people – which shows that the idea of a UI is way off.
The horrible truth is that probably more people have left Ireland(South) to go abroad (largely Britain) since independence – than are now enjoying living under the heel of Engleze imperialism in the North. (I’m hoping I’m wrong about that).
The reason the case for a UI is not made is that economically it simply doesn’t stand up and even SF are terrified of frightenting the Free State electoral horses by raising the subject seriously in the Dail.
The duplication argument is of course an argument of convenience – if there was any merit in it Nats would be wanting to get rid of the Northern Cathoilic Edcuation sector and integrate with the state sector – but clearly Nats and even ‘Republicans’ (of which I count myself) are still terrified of upsetting the church.
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Its as simple as this: if NI’s economy can be improved the case for independence would be equally improved. The two go hand in hand. If NI is very dependent, then Ireland (north and south) would jointly lose fiscally in a UI – the cake would shrink – and for people in NI this would be the most obvious point made in any referendum campaign.
So for SF it’s all about building up the economy in the north while making the south an attractive place, while at the same time putting aside divisive emotive rhetoric from the past and focusing on simple economics. Making it a technical matter – as SNP have done to great success.
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I disagree. The North is a failure, including its economy. What progressive economic model can be offered when you have no economic levers? Whoring yourself to international capital is not a sustainable (26 counties) or progressive economic model, what is your alternative? Why would people desire unity if they are economically bound in interest (and ultimately socially and politically) to the 6 county statelet? My best interpretation is that we have a subvention/fiscal deficit of roughly £10 billion, somewhat similar to that of Wales. How do you foresee that being addressed (without slashing the requirements of our poorer society?)? What happened to the argument that the UK should facilitate the costs of Unity (in effect reparations for colonialisation)? Certainly the 26 counties must be changed and can be as it has the remains of sovereign state in which real change can be enacted.
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I don’t think Alex wanted a poll in Scotland – Unionists wanted it because they ‘knew’ (rightly in my opinion) that Alex wouldn’t win. Although the boul Alex has played an absolute blinder but will lose by at least 10 but less than 15 – in my opinion(hopefully less).
Similarly Gerry and the SinnFeinfers don’t want a UI poll either because a bad result could set the case back for unity for a long time.
No triggers is good – when and if the time is right (ie the good guys are going to get a UI) then the Engleze will comply.
As is the case in Scotland the ones who want a poll are the Unionists.
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