This is my more detailed analysis of the western councils of Derry Strabane, Fermanagh Omagh and Mid Ulster. The party change in council vote between 2011 and 2014 was:
| Derry Strabane 2014 | Derry Strabane 2011 | Change | |
| SF | 19384 | 20845 | -1461 |
| SDLP | 13792 | 17410 | -3618 |
| Nationalist | 5909 | 5832 | 77 |
| Alliance | 853 | 359 | 494 |
| Green | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NI21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UUP | 4065 | 4001 | 64 |
| DUP | 8273 | 10120 | -1847 |
| TUV | 521 | 0 | 521 |
| PUP | 274 | 204 | 70 |
| UKIP | 694 | 0 | 694 |
| Unionist | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 53765 | 58771 | -5006 |
There was a large decline in the SDLP vote (mainly in Derry) and a lesser decline in the SF vote. The DUP vote was also down, more so than the SF vote. Overall, there was a 5,000 vote decline in the nationalist vote, a 500 vote decline in the unionist vote and a 494 vote increase in Alliance vote. The increased Alliance vote is due to competing in more DEA’s. Some unionist voters in the Euro election (TUV, PUP and UKIP) did not vote in the council election due to their party not standing in some DEA’s and some unionist votes and nationalist votes were lost to Alliance. The unionist vote may have been down minimally when taking into account these factors. The biggest surprise here was the collapse of the SDLP vote. Since the SF vote also declined and the independent nationalist vote barely increased the SDLP and SF voters stayed home. Dissident republicans and other independent nationalists benefited with an IRSP seat in Sperrin and 3 independents in Derry.
In Fermanagh Omagh the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:
| Fermanagh Omagh 2014 | Fermanagh Omagh 2011 | Change | |
| SF | 19486 | 21629 | -2143 |
| SDLP | 7164 | 6810 | 354 |
| Nationalist | 2214 | 4145 | -1931 |
| Alliance | 819 | 443 | 376 |
| Green | 71 | 63 | 8 |
| NI21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UUP | 9612 | 10558 | -946 |
| DUP | 7075 | 8956 | -1881 |
| TUV | 1091 | 309 | 782 |
| PUP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 296 | 0 | 296 |
| Unionist | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 47828 | 52913 | -5085 |
There was a 3720 vote decline in the nationalist vote and a 1749 decline in the unionist vote. The SDLP vote increased and there was a large decline in the SF and independent nationalist vote. The improved SDLP vote led to additional councilors in Erne East and Omagh Town. The decline in nationalist and unionist turnout was proportional to their share of the electorate though the true unionist decline would have been less since some Euro unionist voters did not vote in the council election.
In Mid Ulster the change in party vote between 2011 and 2014 was:
| Mid Ulster 2014 | Mid Ulster 2011 | Change | |
| SF | 22287 | 24167 | -1880 |
| SDLP | 7600 | 9381 | -1781 |
| Nationalist | 2571 | 2889 | -318 |
| Alliance | 450 | 298 | 152 |
| Green | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NI21 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UUP | 9574 | 9145 | 429 |
| DUP | 9723 | 11361 | -1638 |
| TUV | 2370 | 2638 | -268 |
| PUP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 195 | 0 | 195 |
| Unionist | 118 | 0 | 118 |
| Conservative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 54888 | 59879 | -4991 |
The nationalist vote declined 3,979 and the unionist vote declined 1164. The true unionist decline would have been less. The main surprises were the loss of a SF seat to the SDLP in Dungannon and the loss of an expected SDLP seat in Moyola to the UUP that was due to the decline in nationalist turnout.
I have calculated the unionist and nationalist turnout in all DEA’s using the 2011 voting age population as recorded in the 2011 census. For example, Erne North had a Catholic electorate of 5,577, a Protestant electorate of 5,290 and Other/None of 257 and I estimated the overall nationalist electorate at ~5,700 and the unionist electorate ~5,400. The SF-SDLP vote was 2,589 for a turnout of 45%. The unionist party vote was 3,701 for a turnout of 69%. The Protestant electorate has not changed since 2011 so the unionist turnout figures should be very accurate though they underestimate unionist turnout in some DEA’s where the TUV or UKIP did not compete since some of those voters voted in the Euro election but not the council election. The nationalist turnout figures probably overestimate the nationalist turnout by 1% to 3% because they do not account for the increase in the nationalist electorate since 2011, which would be over 20,000 for all of Northern Ireland.
| Turnout DEA | Nationalist | Unionist |
| Erne East 6 | 67% | 70% |
| Erne West 5 | 66% | 66% |
| Erne North 5 | 45% | 69% |
| Enniskillen 6 | 42% | 49% |
| Omagh 6 | 37% | 50% |
| Mid Tyrone 6 | 67% | 67% |
| West Tyrone 6 | 56% | 68% |
| Clogher Valley 6 | 55% | 71% |
| Dungannon 6 | 39% | 57% |
| Torrent 6 | 48% | 63% |
| Cookstown 7 | 49% | 59% |
| Magherafelt 5 | 48% | 54% |
| Moyola 5 | 59% | 60% |
| Carntogher 5 | 63% | 54% |
| Derg 5 | 62% | 65% |
| Sperrin 7 | 52% | 54% |
| Faughan 5 | 41% | 43% |
| Waterside 7 | 43% | 48% |
| Foyleside 5 | 47% | NA |
| Ballyarnett 6 | 49% | NA |
| The Moor 5 | 57% | NA |
Carntogher DEA is the only DEA in which nationalist turnout was higher than unionist turnout. There are 7 DEA’s where nationalist turnout is similar to unionist turnout. In half the DEA’s nationalist turnout is much lower than unionist turnout. Indeed, even though the Catholic electorate in the Erne North, Enniskillen and Clogher Valley DEA’s exceeds the Protestant electorate, the unionist vote was higher than the nationalist vote in all 3 of those DEA’s!
What would have been the outcome for Westminster and Assembly elections if they had been held the same day? Here are the estimated vote totals and percentages.
| Westminster Assembly | Foyle | West Tyrone | FST | Mid Ulster |
| SF | 12035 | 16886 | 14074 | 18267 |
| SDLP | 11391 | 6111 | 5488 | 5772 |
| Nationalist | 4244 | 1818 | 3521 | 1231 |
| Alliance | 853 | 671 | 401 | 117 |
| Green | 0 | 198 | 71 | 0 |
| NI21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UUP | 2056 | 5239 | 10560 | 5932 |
| DUP | 4512 | 6993 | 7763 | 5761 |
| TUV | 0 | 521 | 1587 | 1884 |
| PUP | 274 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 696 | 0 | 296 | 195 |
| Unionist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 36061 | 38437 | 43761 | 39159 |
| SF | 33.37% | 43.93% | 32.16% | 46.65% |
| SDLP | 31.59% | 15.90% | 12.54% | 14.74% |
| Nationalist | 11.77% | 4.73% | 8.05% | 3.14% |
| Alliance | 2.37% | 1.75% | 0.92% | 0.30% |
| Green | 0.00% | 0.52% | 0.16% | 0.00% |
| NI21 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UUP | 5.70% | 13.63% | 24.13% | 15.15% |
| DUP | 12.51% | 18.19% | 17.74% | 14.71% |
| TUV | 0.00% | 1.36% | 3.63% | 4.81% |
| PUP | 0.76% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| UKIP | 1.93% | 0.00% | 0.68% | 0.50% |
| Unionist | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Conservative | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
For Stormont there would be no change in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone. It would be 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP and 1 DUP in both constituencies. For Westminster, there would also be no change in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone. In Foyle, there would be no change with 3 SDLP, 2 SF and 1 DUP. Although the SF vote exceeds the SDLP in the 2011 election 80% of the unionist surplus transferred to the SDLP as well as much of the Alliance vote. As there was 7% unionist surplus 5.5% of that, along with 1.5% of the Alliance vote would bring the SDLP total up to 38.5%, far exceeding the SF percentage. Westminster could be a different outcome. The SF vote is ~650 higher than the SDLP vote. However, in the 2010 election, approximately 20% of the unionist vote voted tactically for the SDLP, which would have been 1,500 votes in this election. The big unknown would be how the 4,244 independent nationalist would vote. Of course, many of the dissident republican voters may not vote in a Westminster election so it is difficult to predict the outcome in 2015.
In Fermanagh South Tyrone the UUP vote exceeded the DUP vote by over 6% so it appears that the UUP would pick up an Assembly seat from the DUP. The SDLP would also pick up a seat from SF. At 12.54% they would pick up enough of the unionist surplus and Alliance transfers to reach a quota and would receive some of the 8% independent nationalist transfers. It appears that SF would lose a Westminster seat to a unionist unity candidate. There are several reasons for this. The Dungannon DEA does not match the Westminster boundaries. A section of Killyman ward with 400 to 500 unionists is actually in the Craigavon council and another section with 400 to 500 nationalist votes is actually in Mid Ulster. So the unionist vote would be 1% higher and the nationalist vote 1% lower based on the actual Westminster boundaries. Another reason is that EU nationals are not permitted to vote in Westminster elections. There were 3,000 EU nationals on the electoral register for the council elections and if 800 of these voted there would be another 1% shift in the nationalist unionist balance. The last reason is that the actual unionist vote total is higher because some TUV and UKIP voters that voted in the Euro election did not vote in the council election due to the lack of candidates. There were no such candidates in Clogher Valley and Erne West. I estimate and additional 400+ unionist votes. So with the Westminster electorate the combined nationalist vote would be at most 51% and the unionist vote would be at least 48%. The SDLP vote was 7.6% in 2010 and would need to collapse to less than 3% for SF to win. This is unlikely to occur. Unless there is an end to nationalist apathy a unionist unity candidate will win Westminster in 2015.
"We in coming days may be" 
Do you know if economic exodus of Catholics from some western areas since the census is responsible for the disappointing Catholic vote?
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Daniel,
NISRA has recorded a net emigration from Northern Ireland since 2011 of less than 2,000 per year. Comparing the 2001 census with the 2011 census shows more Protestant emigration than Catholic emigration. There could be a net emigration of Catholics from the west but there would also be a net Protestant emigration. The turnout would be higher for both unionists and nationalists but the difference between the two would be unchanged.
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Some Derry councillors have anecdotally said that a lot of Catholics are moving out of Derry faha
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Very interesting regarding the upcoming westminster elections. I suspect a fair chunk of the independent vote in Foyle would return to Durkan. Who is SF’s challenger? If they put up Raymond McCartney Durkan will wipe the floor with him in any debate. SF would be likely be relying on people voting SF no matter what, but that won’t win them Foyle. Probably time for the SDLP to get tactical and drop leaflets in the Waterside, Fountain, Newbuildings and Eglinton with a “Durkan or McCartney – you decide” type message. They should be squeezing the soft unionist vote til the pips pop here by making clear a vote for the DUP is what SF will be hoping for.
Same maybe goes for South Down.
SF would lose to a unity candidate on paper in FST, but I reckon they would actually want one as a way to bring out all those stay-at-homes. The SDLP actually improved a bit here and in Omagh (bit like the UUP) and their terminal decline can’t be taken for granted. Even if it does, it doesn’t go automatically to SF, so SF need to a new strategy.
West Tyrone and Mid Ulster seem fairly predictable.
The SDLP also appear to be holding steady (slight improvement?) in Newry & Armagh. Again, as an area regarded as two way nationalist dogfight, should they be coercing unionists to back Bradley here. Alternatively, is SF vote low enough to provoke a unionist unity stunt hear?
Leaves North and South Belfast. Regarding north Belfast, I think SF underperformed in Castle and are raging. I think the loss of a second seat here in particular provoked Gerry Adams to say he has “no confidence” or whatever in the SDLP. They should have had the votes by themselves here, somehow they managed to lose a big share of their vote here. That may make SF minds up to prioritise NB. Not sure. In any case, the DUP vote is also down here due to other unionists. I think that’ll make a unity deal all the more likely.
Finally South Belfast. Results here have the SDLP, despite a duff election overall, still nosing in front here ahead of everyone else. They need tactical votes from both the alliance side of them and the SF side of them. Not sure how they’ll manage it, but a unionist unity candidate here will make that task a lot easier. Among the non-Alliance-to-Alliance transfers, the SDLP are still heavily in front in terms of transfers than unionists combined; not just in Botanic and Balmoral, but also Castlereagh South. A “McDonnell or Patterson (or whoever)” message in Republican and Alliance areas would be a start.
Regarding the GE itself. If Labour are returned as the largest party but still short of a majority (requiring help from Lib Dem rump and SDLP), I’d make the SDLP demand small but relevant: SDLP support on bills provided AV is implemented in NI. It would be an easy sell by the government: “Northern Ireland still divided society…. elections can be tribal headcounts….Proportional already used in Euro, council and assembly in contrast to England…etc.
Dunno if Alliance would fancy that though, as Long holds EB on the basis that she can come through the middle of the DUP,UUP, and TUV.
An AV election would shore up the SDLP in South Belfast as subsequent eliminations of green, SF and Alliance would mostly top up the SDLP total. While SF might not be happy about Foyle and South Down now being further away due to unionist preferences, they might appreciate SDLP transfers in FST and North Belfast so may not actually block it. I’d like to see this NI-only AV idea discussed further.
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Charlie,
The Conservative Party is probably deeply regretting their opposition to the AV referendum. The UKIP vote will be much higher in 2015 and most of those votes will be at the expense of the Conservatives. If the AV referendum had passed those UKIP votes could have transferred to the Conservatives.
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Yeah but I can’t have sympathy for them. I remember living in London being canvassed in the marketplace by a pair of tories talking down to the electorate about how “even labour support us” – well of course they do!
I’m not sure how likely the SDLP is to think this demand up by themselves so I’d like to see it discussed until someone says why it shouldn’t be a precondition for any support for a labour government. Mention it to your SDLP chums between now and 2015.
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Snag is that AV ref was rejected in NI
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Yes it was rejected, but by the smallest majority in a UK region. SF, SDLP and Alliance all supported a Yes vote. Unionists and Greens a No. Quite fittingly the result was 44% yes, 56% No. Interesting how Unionists, who are used to fairer voting systems rejected the AV referendum. Almost like they had something to lose…
I think I remember scrolling over a guardian map of constituencies and how they voted and the only English constituencies to vote ‘Yes’ were: Cambridge, Oxford and few trendy liberal / socialist intelligensia London boroughs like Islington, Camden and Southwark. Actually here’s the map and list:
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/may/06/av-referendum-results-map
Pity, NI is treated as one massive constituency. I’d wager that all the nationalist constituencies and North Belfast voted Yes. Time for a bit of hard nosed pragmatism. Its not a difficult sell given the ‘unique circumstances’ of NI.
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You just can’t implement something that was rejected in a referendum, it’s just not a runner. You seem blind to that point!
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‘If they [SF] put up Raymond McCartney Durkan will wipe the floor with him …’
Spot on. The quality of SF candidates in Derry leaves much to be desired. Come back Mitchell, all is forgiven.
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SDLP Eastwood a good MLA.
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Unionists vote in areas like FST come what may- the result there next year will depend on the overall constituency turnout. As it rises, the unionist proportion of the vote decreases.
There’s no doubt a unionist candidate would win the westminster seat on these figures- however, I suspect nationalist turnout will rise again to try and prevent this in 2015. Another close one, undoubtedly.
I still remember the groans from Republicans when early indications were that in the by election following Sands’ death, turnout was down. However in the event the turnout rose even above the extraordinary level of Sands’ election- and Sinn Fein won an increased majority. This was as true then as it is now in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
I think the SDLP are in big trouble in South Belfast. I don’t expect Sinn Fein to stand down this time round, add a growing Alliance party and a single unionist into the mix, and McDonnell has massive problems.
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Not so fast. Sdlp got the highest share of the vote in the councils in south belfast. It’s strong in that area with Catholics, while alliance party types tend to support SDLP in this area at Westminster. Anna lo is standing down.
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Actually Alliance would have topped in South Belfast winning outright in Botanic and Castlereagh South. You haven’t factored in the Lisnasharragh wards of Rosetta, Ravenhill and Wynchurch where some boxes were running at 30%+ for Alliance, suffice to add SF’s Dermot Kennedy was breathing down the SDLP’s neck here also. IMHO I think people are becoming aware McDonnell is doing too many jobs to be doing any of them well.
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Downshire,
The only Lisnaharragh wards in S. Belfast are good SDLP areas. The 2011 election shows that the Alliance support is concentrated in the old ‘Castlereagh central’ area now known as Merok and Shandon as well as the Cregagh estate. By my sums the SDLP is still out in front. I’ll agree that it’s very close though. In any case, they are still well placed to target transfers. And I’d say more of their supporters will turnout in a general election. The fact that there are now more Alliance, SF and Green voters here is only good news for the McDonnell coalition. A unity candidate won’t automatically gather all unionists behind a single candidate in south Belfast. It might even sent a few towards McDonnell.
Sinn Fein could do worse perhaps than replace Maskey with O’Muilleoir. While it might go after some the trendy middle class support of the SDLP, it may alienate the republican heartlands a bit. If they do stand, I still think a fair chunk will vote tactically for McDonnell. When Maskey didn’t stand some of the republican turnout was woeful so maybe there are worse things than a SF challenger.
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Charlie,
The Lisnasharragh wards in S.Belfast were good SDLP areas. Not any more. Faha projects a catholic voting age population of 29% – the combined nationalist vote didn’t hit 15%, with the SDLP barely managing 9%. This comes against a backdrop across S.Belfast where SDLP voters have clearly switched to Alliance in this election. It also has come at a time when Alliance have receded in strongly unionist areas, although this has been compensated with growth in more areas that are either more middle class, more catholic, or both. I think there has been a drop in support in the Cregagh/Castlereagh Road/Orangefield areas which has been compensated for by in other places – ie the more catholic middle class Rosetta, Ravenhill and Wynchurch were 50% of the catholic vote isn’t unaccounted for with Nationalist parties.
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**is unaccounted for with Nationalist parties.
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Downshire could this be new-rich Catholics who do not remember or identify with the SDLP’s struggle to secure rights for Catholics? A campaign based on reminding them might work? Hard for SDLP to cover all bases from Markets to these rich areas. Alliance unlikely to win this seat because voters will realise it is a choice between either Alasdair McDonnell or a Unionist.
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It’s hard to know exactly what seems to be restraining the nationalist vote. I know SF canvassers alluded to the fact there was a lot of closed Apartment blocks in the Ravenhill area that made it difficult to canvas, but that’s anecdotal. Of course the catholic population here is much younger, and therefore less likely to vote anyway. I think the area would appeal to those in mixed marriages too which would help Alliance. I doubt they will take the Westminster seat, but that second SDLP assembly seat is looking very shaky, with pressure from both Alliance and a third unionist.
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Sdlp got feck all votes in 2010 from the markets or lower ormeau so SF standing or not makes little difference, lo as mentioned wont be standing so expect the huge pale green alliance vote in 2015 to go back to McDonnell oh and as well as borrowing a number of green and socialist votes McDonnell will also take some moderate unionist votes who couldn’t bear to see Pratt I mean Spratt win. All quite impressive when you consider the fact that big Al is a bit of a buffoon.
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Boondock Alasdair McDonnell has a medical practice that serves Markets.
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The support for the SDLP in Lwr Ormeau/Markets seems slim given that a rep of such longevity as Pat McCarthy was not elected?
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Surprising, with the area being predominantly Catholics.
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These are the type of areas SDLP should be able to win back, with a focus on Nhs, welfare, etc.
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It doesnt seem to matter Harry, If I remember correctly the turnout for South Belfast was around 58% the turnout in the markets area was around 30% so Its a fair assumption that the SF voters stayed at home and didnt help the SDLP
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I think the UUP desperation to get an MP and get maximum return on their <1% vote increase will make a pact idea irresistible, given that it's been done already in Mid Ulster. The DUP also fears split unionist votes more than anyone so I'm predicting pacts galore next year! Let's have a unionist unity sweepstake.
Tom Elliott in FST and someone (Mike Nesbitt?) in South Belfast in exchange for Dodds in North Belfast and Gavin Robinson in East Belfast. North Down might be an open contest this year.
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I hope there are some unity candidates, that will get the nationalist vote out in droves. I dont know why SF and the SDLP cant make a pact themselves.
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The politics of gerry adams is not the SDLPs politics. Far from it.
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I dont agree with pacts but if it came down to it the Nationalists parties dont have to endorse each other. They just step aside for an independent. Sure if George Galloway had trouble keeping his seat in Bradford (which he wont) Im sure he could run over here. That would certainly add a bit of spice to local politics
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Don’t think SDLP will stand aside in any constituency. SDLP too strong in South Belfast anyhow. Alasdair is very good at getting a broad support base.
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No they wont not for the forseeable future anyway. I believe south Belfast is pretty safe for the SDLP, I also believe that SF will hold FST, unionism threw everything and the kitchen sink at it last time and came up short. I dont see any reason why those SDLP voters who lent Gildernew their vote last time wouldnt do the same again. Unionist unity pacts will only make a difference in Upper Bann to stop SF comming through the middle of an even split uup/dup vote, East Belfast to make sure of ousting Naomi (the dup should be ok on their own but a pact is inevitable to make sure) and in North Belfast to maybe save Dodds one last time
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Even for those in the SDLP who could see the benefits of a pact, it would be medium to long term party suicide. It would remove the modicum of respect that they maintain for not going along with SF and the unionists and calling pacts what they are. Unionists, particularly the UUP, seem to be beyond shame at this point and having running unity candidates for years as well as FST in 2010 and Mid Ulster in 2013, then any grief they will get has been and gone. The SDLP on the other hand is relying on Alliance tactical votes in SB and it would look very sorry on the doorsteps if it had to explain a nationalist unity pact. I think they are somewhat relying on the fact that SInn Fein Nua voters in SB realise SF can’t win in SB and will vote tactically and the SF hardcore won’t vote SDLP anyway so they are not missing much. As recent transfers show however, the SB Alliance vote is now heavily of the pale green variety. If Lo doesn’t stand, a lot of those votes may be very easily put back at Alisdair’s column.
Dodd’s may hold on, but nowadays even most of the Alliance vote in NB is of a pale green hue and have no time for Dodds. If I was an Alliance voter living in NB, rather than have nowhere to go to tactically, I’d probably now be prepared to hold my nose and vote Kelly to demonstrate that Twaddell, Flag Protests and interfering in housing build decisions by the HE in North Belfast are totally unacceptable. While I’m sure Dodds will be confident of the non-DUP unionist vote in NB coalescing around him in 2015, I think his instinct will be not to take a chance and have a unity candidate deal in place. Pretty sure SF will be hoping he goes for it too. It makes it clear to SDLP voters that there is genuine fear in the DUP of losing the seat and even if Kelly fails he could possibly squeeze the Alban’s vote even more and say that the SDLP are nothing in NB except nationalist spoilers. A politically bigoted term of course (in the words of Ralph Nader), but one that does have resonance in these parts.
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SDLP voters have Nichola Mallon, Lord Mayor, for the next year. Not sure whether it will be Nichola or Alban to stand for Westminster but helping SF is not an SDLP objective, helping people in expressing support for SDLP is.
A seat like this can hopefully morph to an SDLP seat with tactical votes from Alliance, soft unionists, etc., same as in South Down and south Belfast
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SDLP supporter we agree on some issues but talk of North Belfast morphing into an SDLP seat is nonsense. In a little over 10 years Albans vote has gone from around 20% to 12% quite a drop. Nicola scraped home in the umpteenth count at the last council election. Compared to a lot of the SDLP candidates these 2 are actually very good and yet both of them are struggling to get the vote out, SDLP need to shore up Foyle, SD and SB before they can start considering any gains. There best bet for a gain in the mid-long term future is N&A were a good candidate together with some unionist tactical voting may pip a poor SF candidate
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I venture to disagree. North Belfast is good long term for the SDLP because a coalition of non SF voters can be assembled. This constituency is in large part a leafy and prosperous part of Belfast with some of the most sought after addresses NI making it sImilar to south belfast though it is less Catholic than SB. SDLP can win this for Westminster with Mallon or Alban but will take more than one go to get to that point.
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North Belfast is more catholic than South Belfast (47% compared to 44%) but both are about 1% more catholic than Protestant. The only coaliition in North Belfast will be a get Dodds out campaign and the only person in a position to do it is Kelly and as Charlie has already stated plenty of pale green Alliance voters are willing to do the unthinkable because compared to Dodds and McCausland Kelly is statesman like. Sorry the SDLP vote here will likely be further squeezed in FPTP election. The SDLP need to start with some realistic targets. the last election was a disaster and no matter how they spin the figures it was poor. Even FJH who I repect alot was clutching at straws claiming they pretty much got the seats they were expected – true they got more seats/%vote compared to last time but if the vote keeps dropping then there is no chance of retaining those seats.
As stated earlier 2015 will be about consolidation. I believe SDLP will comfortably hold Foyle and SD. South Belfast will be interesting due to the ineviatable Unity candidate and whether or not Anna Lo and Máirtín Ó Muilleoir stand but McDonnell should still be fine. A good showing in NandA will be important and hopefully the gap with SF will be closed considerably maybe making the seat competetive in a cycle or 2. The SDLP must also get the vote up in West Belfast or they are in serious danger of becoming obsolete there with the likes of PBP taking the non-SF vote. If Gildernew and Kelly just miss out then that will reflect badly on the SDLP who correctly dont want to form any pacts. Elsewhere a general increase of a percent or 2 would be a start to build a platform for 2016.
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Alliance voters would not vote SF – they are not the same politics.
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There is a lot of catholic outmigration from deprived parts of north belfast
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Alliance voters would not vote SF.
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Really? Have you read the views of Comrade Stalin and Gerry Lynch? Two of the most high profile North Belfast-based Alliance bloggers.
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There are exceptions but yes as a rule.
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Not saying they’ve explicitly stated “I’m voting Kelly in 2015” but are really getting sick of Dodds and co’s antics, and would not be sad to see him go.
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Might it be possible that nationalist and traditional unionist votes are reduced simply through death?
Younger people, nationalist and unionist might be more inclined to vote alliance, without regard to their particular position regarding partition, where these young voters are first time voters.
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Roy,
Certainly a possibility, particularly among the nationalist community it would seem.
But you can’t really live in NB, whatever age you are, and not see some of the nonsense first hand and not be influenced by it. Possibly that’s exactly what drives the Alliance vote. I think a rise in non-traditional orange and green residents is possibly more likely though.
Regarding pacts, it may not be that much of a stretch anymore for the UUP to stand aside given they haven’t even an MLA seat to defend anymore.
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Much of NB is a very leafy middle class area
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Charlie, the other possible element in the rise, albeit slight, in alliance electoral support is this support coming from ethnic minority voters.
Sinn Vein and DUP and SDLP have run candidates from this source but, Alliance, with the higher profile Anna Lo have a greater claim to this particular voter milieu.
Speculation I know but it is possible, what might show if this is the case will be next years Westminster election where ethnic minority voters, unless nationalized, cannot exercise such franchise.
Certainly the rise, west of the Bann is curious as here is an area of weakness for Alliance, West Tyrone for instance their vote has fluctuated like the proverbial prostitutes pants, here we see a slightly greater rise, again in an area with rising numbers of non Irish or UK voters, in many instances more than doubling previous tallies.
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Glenn,
I am aware of that. But you don’t have to be in of top of it all to have an opinion (most people aren’t).
Roy,
“Non traditional orange and green residents” was my catch-all term for both mixed families and ethnic minorities. I just find it crude (personal view perhaps) to refer to people who have lived here for years and are immersed in the society as minorities. That’s not to say the term is inaccurate; I just don’t use it very often. regarding your point: I’d say your right, I’d say Alliance seem to have first dibs on these communities followed by the SDLP and Greens I suppose.
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I would say most of the increase in the alliance vote in NB is comimg from former SDLP voters. It takes a long time before ethnic minorities in any society bother with the local politics, sure the SDLP even tried to tap the vote in the last assembly election by having a Polish candidate in East Belfast and scored an embarrassing 250 votes. If the immigrants cant be bothered to vote for someone from their own background then they are unlikely to vote for Billy or Seanny McWhoever.
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Boondocks,
in south Belfast it seems the rise in support which brought Anna Lo to Dundonald, God love her, was the vote from members from the Indian community present in that constituency, with some north ease Asian votes too.
Charlie, I get the reference but I tend to call a spade a spade, I’d disagree though on the ability of SDLP to capatilise on ethnic minority votes, I wholly expect their tally decline to continue due to ineffectiveness rather than any gra the younger electors may have for Sinn Fein.
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Is the problem that the SF party is now ageing somewhat and young Catholics don’t really relate to the whole “peace process” thing, so they don’t adhere as strongly to the broad nationalist family when voting? Hence the attraction of Anna Lo, the Greens, NI21 and so on (and there seem to be more options lately).
I agree with the person who said it is important to impress on the younger Catholics of the history of the peace process and the discrimination against Catholics that the SDLP fought against, and in this context the need to keep the SDLP and SF joint vote up to 40 an if possible more than that.
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SDLP supporter:
“SDLP voters have Nichola Mallon, Lord Mayor, for the next year. Not sure whether it will be Nichola or Alban to stand for Westminster but helping SF is not an SDLP objective, helping people in expressing support for SDLP is.
A seat like this can hopefully morph to an SDLP seat with tactical votes from Alliance, soft unionists, etc., same as in South Down and south Belfast”
Bumped into Nicola today, must say I’d certainly give her 1 for her personal charm and the way she has with her (if that makes sense). She’s definitely more business-like than O’Muilleoir’s attitude, which I must say I liked but others could easily find to be grating.
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Cant see how SF can call on people to vote in an election when the don’t take their seats – Westminster is largely irrelevant in local politics – except to beat themmuns(Deputy Dodsy in particular).
What could make a difference is if the DUP are able to cut a deal with the Tories – otherwise who the MP is irrelevant – especially when SF (correctly in my opinion) don’t take their seats. A tory government backed up by the DUP would be a propaganda coup for SF.
Seats in the Council and Stormo are what matters. What odds if Deputy Dodsy get the NB Westminster seat?
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Faha,
Thank you very much for compiling these figures.
I have a technical question, and a querulent observation.
My question is this: How have you calculated the census figures for the DEAs? I have only found the demographic breakdown to the new 11 LGDs as a whole – if it’s available at ward or DEA level I would love to know! Or is it your educated guesswork?
My querulent observation is that a lot of the people you call Nationalist voters actually aren’t.
In 11 of the 21 DEAs here, the number of votes for Nationalist parties is less than half of your calculated number of “census Catholics”.
If we describe these people, who are not in fact voting for Nationalist parties, as “Nationalists”, we risk making a category error.
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Nicholas,
For my calculations of the demographics for the DEA’s I used the 2011 census data for the SA’s (small areas) which are similar to the OA’s (output areas) in the 2001 census. Usually in a DEA there are 1 or 2 SA’s (OA’s) that are divided between 2 different DEA’s. Since the populations of a single SA is so small (~300) my numbers should be accurate to within a fraction of 1%. The census files are KS212NI and the file SA and OA lookup tables. The numbers are confusing since the OA maps do not match the OA census number guides and the OA census number guides have to be cross tabulated with the different SA number guides. It is true that over half of all Catholics do not vote in many DEA’s. The only way that their political party preference could be determined would be if mandatory voting were introduced ( as in Australia) which I would be greatly in favour of introducing. I thought the Spotlight poll from over a year ago was quite informative and thorough. The
Spotlight poll was unable to determine any political preference for 20% of respondents and these were mainly people who were unlikely to ever vote. The political party preference for those 80% who revealed one is somewhat different than the actual results in this election. The non voters appear to contain more Alliance, SDLP and minor party preferences. It appears that the non voting Catholics and non voting Protestants have similar voting preference to those who actually vote. The difference would be that if they all voted the Alliance and SDLP vote would be up significantly. In the western councils, since Catholic turnout is much lower than Protestant turnout, the votes would reflect the underlying demographics and the nationalist percentage would be higher in most DEA’s. The Alliance vote would be higher too but since the Alliance base is so low the Alliance percentage of the total vote would be up minimally. The correlation between religion and nationalism and unionism breaks down to a great extent in North Down, Ards, Carrickfergus, Newtownabbey, Lisburn, East Belfast. In some of those areas the majority of Catholics vote Alliance and Green. In many of those areas the Catholic turnout is only 20% so how does one know how the other 80% would vote if they did vote ? The only way these questions could be answered definitively would be if mandatory voting was required. Opinion polls indicate Alliance, SDLP and to a lesser extent the small minor parties would be the main beneficiary.
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Faha,
Thanks. I still have not seen lookup tables for converting the SA’ and OA’s to the new DEAs and wards, though there is one for the 11 new districts each take as a whole. Did you do it by eye? (If so I take my hat off to you; it must have been a tedious task!)
But as regards the non-voters, I think you may be asking the wrong question. Why are you so eager to classify them as Nationalists? The one thing we know about them is that they don’t vote at all. Asking which party they don’t vote for is rather like asking if someone is a Catholic atheist or a Protestant atheist!
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Nicholas,
re. “If we describe these people, who are not in fact voting for Nationalist parties, as “Nationalists”, we risk making a category error.”
In the census publications the term ‘nationalist background’ is used – I think this is ‘official’ terminology?
Strictly speaking Faha’s ‘Nationalists’ should therefore be referred to as being of a ‘Nationalist background’ ?
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Sammy,
NISRA consistently uses “Catholic background”, never “Nationalist background”. The difference is important.
In my view “Nationalists” are by definition those who vote for Nationalist parties. As Faha has demonstrated, that is only around half of the “census Catholics”.
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Nicholas,
Thanks for the clarification.
I seem to remember we had this same discussion a few years back regarding Catholics being ‘assumed’ to be Nats.
The only way Nat/unionist turnout figures can be worked out (if not using voting figures or opinion polls) is by making an assumption based on religion – which is a fairly strong indicator. I think it would be fair to describe Catholic backgrounders as ‘realistically potential Nationalist voters’ and to caveat Faha’s analysis on that.
If we don’t make this type of assumption then it is difficult to see how the interesting information in Faha’s analysis can be seen.
The margin of margin of error may not be quantified but it is easily understood.
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Do you think Martin McGuinness meeting the queen is part of the reason for this decline in Catholic vote?
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Obviously Catholic is the term in the census. Also religion brought up in. But never “nationalist”.
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Faha. Will you be producing a turnout table by constituency?
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Enda,
I will try and produce one by the end of the month for each district council. The Westminster Assembly constituencies would be more difficult because the DEA’s overlap so the results may not be accurate enough to be useful.
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Daniel, do you believe Marty and Her Maj meeting on a semi-regular basis is reducing the Catholic or Nationalist (delete as appropriate) vote? You must do personally as your question is really a point framed in that form with the hope of validation from others. Have you any anecdotes because there doesn’t seem to be any evidence.
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carrickally,
how is the prep going for the12th?
Is there much practising going on?
What is your route this year?
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Some of the Catholic vote seems to have jumped ship from the nationalist ship to the ship of the Alliance party or the Greens.
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