Number 1 of a series by Faha
This is the first in a series of 11 posts on the 11 new District Councils. In this analysis I will present election data on the current 26 councils. In estimating the voter turnout among nationalist and unionist voters I have relied on the 2001 census and the 2011 census for the voting age population. For the 2005 election I have used the 2001 census data and for the 2011 election I used the 2011 census data. The 2011 census was held just over a month prior to the election and should be very accurate. The 2005 turnout data for the unionist population should be accurate since the increase in the unionist electorate was only 10,000 between the 2001 census and the 2011 census. The 2005 turnout data for the nationalist population would overestimate the nationalist turnout since the nationalist voting age population increased by almost 100,000 between the 2001 census and the 2011 census. 30,000 of that increase would have occurred by 2005. In determining turnout I assume that net cross community voting balances out.
Numerous polls have shown (Spotlight Poll most recent) that only 1% of Catholics prefer a unionist party for their 1st preference and 1% of Protestants prefer a nationalist party for their 1st preference. For those who give their religion as Other or None, approximately 25% give a nationalist party for their 1st preference, 35% give a unionist party for their 1st preference and 40% give Alliance, Green or independents as their 1st preference. Whenever possible, I use the actual election transfers from Alliance, Green or independent candidates when calculating turnout.
For the new councils I have used the 2011 census age religion data. Since the new DEA’s are often different than the current ones, predicting the 2014 election results involves some speculation.
I will start out west with the new Fermanagh-Omagh district council. The nationalist and unionist turnout of the voting age population was:
2005 2011
Erne East
Nationalist 88% 75%
Unionist 82% 76%
Erne West
Nationalist 81% 72%
Unionist 81% 70%
Erne North
Nationalist 63% 53% (1,000 voter deficit)
Unionist 77% 74%
Enniskillen
Nationalist 60% 50% (1,000 voter deficit)
Unionist 68% 62%
Mid Tyrone
Nationalist 82% 61%
Unionist 79% 61%
West Tyrone
Nationalist 81% 62% (500 voter deficit)
Unionist 84% 68%
Omagh Town
Nationalist 59% 46% (750 voter deficit)
Unionist 52% 55%
In looking at this data there are some obvious conclusions.
#1 Turnout is much higher in rural areas than in the towns.
#2 Turnout dropped dramatically between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#3 In rural DEA’s nationalist and unionist turnout is equal except for Erne North, where nationalist turnout is much less than unionist turnout for both elections. Indeed, 1,000 more nationalist voters would have had to vote in 2011 in order to equal the unionist turnout.
#4 Nationalist turnout is much less than unionist turnout in Enniskillen and Omagh Towns for the 2011 election. 1,000 and 750 more nationalist voters respectively would have had to vote in order to equal unionist turnout.
The new DEA’s have the following religion voting age breakdown. The number of councilors to be elected and quota is in parenthesis.
Erne East (6) (14.3%) Catholic Protestant Other/None
7391 3867 209
64.5% 33.7% 1.8%
Erne West (5) (16.7%) 7179 3016 234
68.8% 28.9% 2.2%
Erne North (5) (16.7%) 5170 5083 230
49.3% 48.5% 2.2%
Enniskillen (6) (14.3%) 7637 6296 519
52.8% 43.6% 3.6%
For the Fermanagh DEA’s there will be no change with 4 nationalist and 2 unionist councilors in Erne East and 4 nationalist and 1 unionist in Erne West. The new Erne North has a nationalist majority and should elect 3 nationalist councilors. However, the nationalist turnout is so poor relative to unionist turnout that 3 unionists should be elected comfortably. The new Enniskillen DEA will lose a nationalist councilor-the current DEA has 7 councilors and the new one 6. Even though there are more than 1,300 potential nationalist voters compared to the unionist electorate it appears that the unionist candidates will receive more votes than nationalist candidates due to the poor nationalist turnout.
The Omagh DEA’s have only one geographical change. Killyclogher ward was moved from Mid Tyrone to Omagh. The number of councilors in the 3 DEA’s was also reduced from 7 to 6.
West Tyrone (6) (14.3%) Catholic Protestant Other/None
8101 4082 190
65.5% 33% 1.5%
Mid Tyrone (6) (14.3%) 9958 3051 182
75.5% 23.1% 1.4%
Omagh (6) (14.3%) 10268 3979 417
70% 27.1% 2.9%
West Tyrone will elect 4 nationalist and 2 unionist councilors with a net loss of one nationalist councilor. Mid Tyrone should elect 5 nationalist and 1 unionist based on the electorate numbers. However, there should also been only 1 unionist councilor elected in 2011 but the DUP finished 170 votes ahead of ( and under quota) a SF candidate because 240 nationalist votes did not transfer to SF. So there could be 2 unionist councilors elected here also for a net loss of 1 nationalist councilor. Omagh Town should elect 5 nationalist and 1 unionist based on the 2005 turnout figures but 4 nationalist and 2 unionist based on the 2011 turnout. There may be a net loss of 1 nationalist councilor here also.
The new district council will elect 40 councilors whereas the current Omagh and Fermanagh councils elect 44 combined. Based on turnout figures in 2011, the 4 fewer councilors will all be nationalist losses. It could be 2 nationalist and 2 unionist losses depending on nationalist turnout and transfers in Omagh and Mid Tyrone.
"We in coming days may be" 
Can you try to resolve the number formatting ? problem to make it easier to read?
LikeLike
Good point, working on it
LikeLike
Great work Faha.
Any ideas why the Nationalist turnout is always so low in North Fermanagh (bar 1985) ?
LikeLike
Fear Feirsteach below has given you the answer. The SDLP vote has collapsed and their organization needs to be rebuilt . Erne North has been the SDLP’s strongest DEA. Omagh Town has also been strong for the SDLP and independent nationalists in the past. Those 2 and Enniskillen have not been strong for SF but have been improving. The absolute vote change between 2005 and 2011 was:
West Tyrone
SF -99
SDLP -349
UUP -169
DUP -46
Mid Tyrone
SF -627
SDLP -790
Nationalist +653
UUP +68
DUP -204
Omagh Town
SF +217
SDLP -625
Nationalist -508
Alliance +324
UUP + 95
DUP -200
Erne North
SF +222
SDLP -432
Nationalist +335
UUP +104
DUP -366
TUV +309
Enniskillen
SF -441
SDLP -346
Nationalist +352
Alliance-Green +182
UUP +338
DUP -596
Erne East
SF +211
SDLP -627
UUP -101
DUP +93
Erne West
SF -327
SDLP -294
Nationalist +889
UUP +225
DUP -198
Obviously, the SDLP vote is collapsing everywhere. It is going to SF, Alliance or staying home. Where SF are losing voters it is usually to independent nationalists who are often former SF-dissident republicans ( Erne West, Enniskillen ). Interestingly, the DUP vote is also down and the UUP vote is up. Some 2005 DUP voters have returned to the UUP or voted TUV.
LikeLike
Yep, you got the raw numbers. What’s missing is political analysis.
I’m guessing there are two main factors:
1. Implosion of the SDLP
2. Disillusionment with SF’s Stormont strategy.
LikeLike
Now you’re talking FF
The SDLP seriously fecked things up here with running against Rodney last time out. That was a pity because they have a large natural constituency here. The reason the SF vote is so high is because of the historical gerrymandering of this constituency. Memories are long in this part of the country.
In my view the nationalist vote is best served in a PR election with two strong nationalist parties which will maximise the overall nationalist vote.
The SF Stormont strategy will matter little here.
LikeLike
Unless I’m mistaken, dub, faha is referencing the 2005 and 2011 council polls, which were PR elections. What he has identified is a large drop in nationalist turnout in certain DEAs, which if repeated in the elections to the new council, would see a decline in nationalist strength where demographic trends indicate the opposite should be true. This is in fact, what happened in 2011, e.g in Enniskillen.
There is still a sizeable number of nationalists (‘Stoops’ if you will) who will never vote Sinn Féin – except perhaps to stop a ‘unionist unity’ candidate stealing Bobby Sands’ old seat.. In addition to this there are a significant number of peope who will never vote Sinn Féin again – except perhaps to stop a ‘unionist unity’ candidate stealing Bobby Sands’ old seat.
LikeLike
FF hits the nail on the head and for whatever reason too many nationalists fail to transfer to other nationalist parties you only have to look at the share of seats in the various councils and assembly to realise Unionists have a far greater percentage of seats than percentage of 1st preference votes. Time nationalist voters stopped being so dumb. No matter what problem you have with the SDLP or SF it seems daft beyond belief to refuse to transfer and then allow someone like Jim Allister to sneak in instead.
LikeLike
It’s true. Nationalist turnout is way down. The same happened in Mid Ulster where the unionist wards were all posting around 10% higher turnouts…
I used to put this down to Fermanagh and Tyrone being particularly susceptible to emigration. But when you compare the 2011 census figures to the 2011 election then it is really stark. The prot. share of the population is now below 40% ( ~39.5%) which should be a struggle to get anywhere near 3 quotas and yet unionists polled around 46% of the votes and won 3 seats easily. Upper bann which had a similar breakdown in the opposite direction in 2001 now has around 44% cath. share and yet still cannot poll 3 quotas.
This is quite concerning but we’ll see what happens this year for the new councils. I still hope the DUP torpedo the plans. It took a long time for Limavady and Armagh to shake off unionist control. These plans will gift Limavady, Moyle and Armagh back to unionist control with not even the certainty of a nationalist Belfast City council. Belfast is going green anyway.
Strange though that another western council in the form of Magherafelt posted a healthy improvent of its nationalist vote. Keep the analysis coming. I’d be particularly keen on seeing your waterside analysis in derry and Strabane. I saw an sdlp member’s sums a number of months back and as nice and smart a guy he is; his numbers were all up the left. For example he considered the new waterside area to be the same even though suburban areas like the Limavady road and Summer meadows get moved into it. Could explain why the SDLP is a bit shit at vote management.
LikeLike
It is true what you have pointed out about Fermanagh-South Tyrone. In the 2011 Stormont election the nationalist voting age turnout was 57% and the unionist was 70%. That 13% lower nationalist turnout translates into almost 6,000 fewer nationalist voters. Almost an entire quota of nationalist voters stayed home. The only reason the DUP won 2 seats is entirely due to nationalist voter apathy.
LikeLike
Faha,
Good stuff.
Is it possible to give an executive summary with your analysis i.e. how many Nat seats how many Unionists seats and whether overall control.
p.s. Are you keeping best (Belfast) until last?
LikeLike
If nationalists turnout even close to unionists next election then the SDLP should win a seat from DUP rather thantaking I back from Sinn Fein.
Upper bann should be an almost certain gain for SF ( likely from UUP).
Strangford was supposed to deliver a nationalist seat on boundary changes
but the same voter apathy meant almpst the same share as the previous election on less favourable boundaries. Would mean an SDLP gain from UUP.
Lagan Valley will come back into play but despite favourable changes here, it may still be another cycle before SDLP take a DUP seat.
South Antrim, SDLP were marginally pushed out (again boundaries) about 500-vote swing would take 3rs DUP seat.
North Antrim, even closer than S. Antrim: SDLP were around 500 votes behind Allister on the last count so a 250 vote swing would put another SDLP in, possibly at UUP or TUV expense.
South Down already has fewer than two quotas but poor balancing made sure UUP staued in. Next time with John McCallister standing with NI21, a replacement UUP candidate, and a higher profile UKIP all fighting, that seat will probably fall to the SDLP (unless SF improve their ground by then)
Belfast seats seem stable, but with tje change in north belfast, and the UUP implosion, there is an outside chance of an alliance gain from the 3rd DUP seat.
Another outside shot is a non-unionist (alliance or SF) gain from DUP in East Derry.
Summary: I make it three clearly vulnerable DUP seats (all to SDLP) and four vulnerable UUP seats ( 3 to SDLP and 1 to SF). I see another couple of outside shots at alliance gains.
If the reasonably likely ones happened, and we’ ve another two years for things to change further, then we could have an assembly with DUP 35 seats, SF 30 seats, SDLP (20 seats), UUP (12 seats) and Alliance (8 seats). It would leave DUP in first minister’s post (unless they get serious competition from UUP/PUP/TUV/NI21/Prot. Coalition etc.)
But would mean the same number of nationalists and unionists in the assembly and more nationalists in the executive.
LikeLike
Sammy,
With the new boundaries and the 2011 turnout the council would be
SF 19
SDLP 6
Nationalist 1
UUP 9
DUP 5
If nationalist turnout in Omagh Town reached the level of unionist turnout then the UUP would lose a seat to either the SDLP or SF. Yes, I am saving Belfast until last.
Charlie,
The 2011 census voting age religion data confirms all your predictions. It is only because of low nationalist voting turnout that unionist parties won extra seats in Fermanagh South Tyrone, Upper Bann, South Down, North Antrim, South Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford. If nationalist voters had voted at the same rate as their unionist counterparts there would be at most 50 unionist MLA’s in Stormont.
LikeLike
Faha,
Thanks for that.
Patience was never one of my (many) virtues – but without giving too much away and before your detailed analysis – do you think that – assuming boundary changes go ahead – Alliance will still hold balance of power in Belfast?
LikeLike
Ah c’mon, Sammy. People in Fermanagh, Tyrone and elsewhere are entitled to the belief, however wrongly held, that Belfast is not the centre of the universe. 😉
LikeLike
Sammy,
Belfast is so complex I need to wait and see who the actual candidates are in each DEA. Mid April is the filing date.
LikeLike
Charlie :
Excellent analysis – thank you.
Horseman would be very pleased indeed.
Looks like I’m wrong about a Nationalist majority by 2020 and an electoral majority by 2030 – it will be well before 2030.
It’s all good.
LikeLike
Im not so optimistic its not just turnout its lack of transfers and even some unfavourable recent boundary changes. A quick look at the ark site shows that in 2011 nationalists took approx 43% of the vote but only gained 40% of the seats whereas Unionists gained approx 48% of the vote but gained 51% of the seats. It doesnt seem like a lot but a jump from 5-11% difference will hold back a nationalist majority. I would expect it will be at least 2 probably 3 election cycles before any nationalist majority in Stormont so 2027 seems more likely. Good news is that the Unionist majority will be lost next time round as they only need to drop 2 seats to nationalism or the Alliance and the good old unionist dominated days are gone
LikeLike
In terms of Stormo “and the good old unionist dominated days are gone”
They were gone under the GFA – as both sides have the right to veto.
In terms of Belfast I don’t think there is the same power of veto – so majority means majority Nat power – but that also means the reverse in Unionist areas.
LikeLike
Very true Sammy but just like the whole must keep FM unionist at all cost nonsense it is clearly very symbolic and will hurt Unionism when it happens
LikeLike
boondock,
Yes agree fully with that.
Belfast council is key for me – not sure after recent exchanges on here what the story will be after re-org and election.
LikeLike
One thing that never gets mentioned is how the unionist constituencies are by and large smaller. Therefore it takes fewer votes to elect a unionist. The last round of boundary changes tried to equalise some places a little bit but not enough to equalise them. I’m not going to use the word but most of the changes favoured unionists.
Even the most recent canvass had most of the smallest constituencies as strongly unionist ones. That said, I still think that the changes at constituency level will manifest themselves shortly.
On another topic Anna Lo has been nominated as the alliance party euro candidate. I think this is good news for nationalists looking for the sdlp to win the third seat. In south belfast last time out, Anna Lo’s transfers went 40% to SDLP, 5% to SF and barely 30% to all unionists (DUP, UUP, UKIP) with a further 20% to the greens and the remainder to the small leftish parties. That’s quite a handy bonus come eliminaton time. Coupled with that, those green transfers (the ones which don go nowhere) by and large end up at the sdlp’s door too. I think this could be the defining factor in this election. With so many unionists chasing maybe 46/47% of the vote and nationalists maybe pushing on to 43/44%; those green/alliance/PBP transfers could become crucial. Plus while unionists do transfer better, there are many more opportunities for delicious vote shredding. Even last euro election Jim Allisters transfers didn’t go uniformally to the other two unionists (rather 5% went out of the game (great) and a further 3% went to the SDLP (even better). With potentially more shredding opportunities this could come down to the wire. Who thinks NI 21 voters are lining up to transfer to the DUP? That’s why I’m repeating that you should keep a blog of the running total of unionist candidates : DUP, UUP, UKIP, PUP and Jamie Bryson (lol) all confirmed and potential for more from protestant coalition, BNP, TUV, Conservative party and possibly the fabled DUP no.2 candidate. Have I left out any of the possible runners and riders?
LikeLike
Dub,
Here’s a book you should read, if you haven’t already
LikeLike
I have a copy, must admit I’ve only skimmed it.
A good read is scheduled for tomorrow on a 3 hour bus journey thanks
LikeLike
One of those killed 20 years ago in the Mull of Kintyre helicopter crash was called Phoenix.
Wouldn’t be a relation by any chance???
LikeLike
Also, are L.A.D. having a laugh or they going to have a crack at standing? !?
LikeLike
In response to Charlie, I don’t think TUV or NI21 are going to stand in this Euro election. So far I think the only confirmed unionist runners are DUP, UUP and UKIP. I cannot see Bryson, PUP, BNP and Protestant Coalition all standing. Stupid as they are, even the most idiotic flegger can see that there should only be one candidate from the remedial wing of unionism. Conservatives?, 2nd DUP?, again I think this is quite unlikely. Hopefully they all stand, but I think there needs to be at least 5 unionist candidates for the SDLP to have a chance.
LikeLike
If NI21 want to seriously compete then they are going to have to fight elections. Recent polls showed they have 5% support not a bad start at all and certainly could eat into the Alliance and UUP share however that can disappear overnight if they don’t keep a profile. Jamie has already said he is standing and according to the Protestant coalition they have been given financial backing to stand by local businessmen (obviously mad as toast). Likewise surely the PUP need to stand to take full advantage of the Fleg and Kultur war to maximize support it wasnt that long ago the PUP stood aside in North Belfast only to see their impressive support vanish over night so are unlikely to make that mistake again. I think the BNP and Tories wont bother as they get no votes anyway and in such a crowded field will be sure to post embarrassing results and not get their deposits back. Jamie and Wullie are unlikely to be worried about such a scenario and are well used to getting literally dozens of votes
LikeLike
I just found out that the Tories have already announced their candidate, Mark Brotherson, a British army major from Bangor. DUP, UUP, UKIP, Cons and Bryson makes 5 confirmed unionist candidates. Strong likelihood of Protestant coalition and PUP to stand and possibly NI21 and TUV. No idea about BNP or 2nd DUP, but we are likely talking between 6 and 9 Unionist candidates. Great news for the SDLP.
LikeLike
Announced a while ago that they will contest the european election
http://www.belfastdaily.co.uk/2013/08/31/pup-leader-to-run-for-election-again/
As did NI21:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/news/ni21-agm-less-grey-hair-more-women-among-the-elected-29762392.html
The TUV haven’t and UKIP wantes a pact, but how can parties like NI21 and TUV who are one man band’s not standIn an eleelection like this?
Don’t they become instantly irrelevant?
Great to hear the conservatives competing.
LikeLike
oops left out Jim Allister yep last time I heard he was slagging off the DUP for not stating whether they were fielding one or 2 candidates and yet at the same time refused to say if The TUV were even standing themselves – er slight double standards there Jim. I think his ego is too big for him not to stand
LikeLike
If he doesn’t stand it will cost the TUV council votes and seats.
LikeLike
Jim Allister and the TUV have a difficult choice to make when it comes to deciding if they should stand a candidate in the Euro elections. Jim Allister received 66,000 votes in the 2009 Euro election but the TUV received only 16,500 in the 2011 Assembly election and 13,000 in the council elections. Of course, they did not stand in every constituency for the Assembly election but even if they had done so I doubt their vote would have exceeded 20,000. So what does Jim Allister do? Stand and risk a personal humiliation if his vote drops to 20,000 from 66,000 ? Not stand and hurt the prospects for his council candidates ? Probably standing someone other than Jim Allister would be the best option. If that candidate does no better than the 2011 vote it would not be seen as disappointing as a massive decline in Jim Allister’s personal vote.
LikeLike
What do readers think about Anna Lo being named the Alliance Candidate for the Euro Elections? Seems to me that it wasn’t a bad call but I’m not sure what a strong Alliance showing means for the SDLP.
LikeLike
I think on balance she’s good for the SDLP. She brought out a lot of ppl who transferred on to the SDLP.
Even if she takes a few SDLP no.1s, she won’t get near the SDLP vote and her transfers will find their way back to them. I think this will be a really close election.
LikeLike
I cannot seem to find anything concrete about PUP, TUV or NI21 intentions in this euro election.
LikeLike
Basil seemed to drop a hint on Twitter, and they have mentiones the euros before but nothing is confirmed yet. TUV haven’t confirmed anything but I don’t see how their biggest vote getter can’t stand on a platform like this to maximise both his and his councillors vote. The PUP have definitely said they will contest the euros.
LikeLike
I think she is a popular candidate and will definitely improve the alliance euro vote, and this is not good news for the SDLP, but I cannot see her being close to being ahead of the SDLP, and they out of all parties will be better placed to scoop up transfers.
LikeLike
If that is true, and we end up with DUP, UUP, UKIP, Bwyson, Tories, PUP, Protestant Coalition, NI21 and TUV all contesting for 2 unionist seats then you can notch up a gain by default for the SDLP. I know this is a PR election, but there is no way that that the votes will all transfer from so many parties all back to the UUP.
LikeLike
It would leave the UUP with no MPs or MEPs grealy reducing their mandate
LikeLike
I just browsed the BNP N Ireland twitter feed *shudders* no mention of a euro candidate but plenty of vile being spewed including labelling Martina Anderson “a bitch”. All the rest is just a hotch botch of anti republican and anti-Islamic bile with a few immigrantageddon articles mostly retweeted from that sad nasty little man David Vance.
Hope they enter now. Their rhetoric is hardly different from that of the DUP.
The racist shit on the BNP has got me thinking. Given what’s gone in the last 5 years; isn’t it time to start a blog on how loyalists; led by the UVF have gobe out of their way to make our guest-Irish feel as unwelcome/threatened as possible. Anna Lo will be a clear manifestation of that, but the SDLP has been just as generous and has stood more Polish and Portuguese candidates in winnable seats than anyone else.
I think we need to reach out as best we can to people who have exactly as much right to vote in a euro election as any of us, particularly if they support tenants of pan-european socia democracy (SDLP), Liberal democracy (Alliance) or European alliace of greens and democrats (Green party) and encourage to transfer between all 3. That said these are intelligent people who are hardly ignorant of the attacks and threats arounf them as well as the traditional flag and emblem burning ritual on the 11th night bonfires. We can really use their help in this election and if you are one such new irish reading this then help us build a new society by showing unionist parties that they no longer have the sheer numbers to rely on the worat excesses of far-right knuckle-dragging loyalists that they regularly pander to, rather for them to remain relevant in a country where those who self identify as British has fallen far below 50% they must reject extremism immediately and condemn it unreservedly. Until that time, make your vote count: By voting 1, 2, 3, 4 in which ever order you wish for SDLP, Alliance, Sinn Fein and the Green Party.
LikeLike
Hold on Charlie; I’m no friend of BNP, as regulars can confirm from my very first post on this blog in September 2012. But you have talked about loyalists making “guest-Irish” feel as uncomfortable as possible and then you want people to vote SF. A party that justified the murder of what they view as fellow Irishmen. Good way to reject extremism and condemn it unreservedly.
LikeLike
Hi Carrick,
I’m happy to amend just for you ( indeed I excluded SF further up) but I believe that whatever past parties have they should be judged now on their present. I’m still not crazy about Sinn Fein but their SDLP clothe stealing has been continuing unabated, and sound pretty reasonable on many day to day issues so I included, however as a pro-European they won’t be getting any of my top 3 preferences as their euro-sceptiscm is as narrow minded as the DUP/UUP/TUV/UKIP. Doesn’t really matter though as they’ll probably be elected on the first count. For all the new parties competing this is a straight fight between the SDLP and UUP. Can’t see two many green transfers going to the UUP.
What’s your prediction Carrick? How many votes will be between 3rd and 4th place?
LikeLike
Charlie,
A suitable response to sectarianism and racism would be the election of Anna Lo.
Gwan ye girl ye.
.. and fair play to the East Belfast (Prod) electorate for electing Naomi in the Westminsters.
LikeLike
Cheers for the clarification Charlie. I often hear about judging by present and not the past, usually from the likes of the Louth TD who then goes off on one of his rants about the Orange State but fair play to you.
As to your question, I think we’re looking at the same 3 parties this time around, the TUV vote will not be as strong and the UUP and SDLP will also drop, which will suit the UUP more.
As a matter of fact, unless there is something to really galvanise the electorate, there will be a serious drop in votes for the Euros across the board.
LikeLike
Mr MCKenzie the brains behind these revised councils had no problem removing Ballyward form Banbridge and sending it into its natural home of Newry/East Down, so not sure why he didn’t give Castlederg/Newtonstewart to Omagh. These areas have little orientation towards Derry and removing them would have reduced the new Derry City council to 97,000 and increased Fermanagh/Omagh to 88,000.
Its seems these councils are now set in stone but I’m surprised that such an imbalance in population has been allowed to the none Belfast Councils. Like 81,000 electorate in Fer/Omagh and 139,000 in the equally rural Armagh/Banbridge/Craigavaon. Then we have 93,000 in the urban and rapidly aging Lisburn/Castlereagh. On the latter council I’ve only one idea why it couldn’t have been enlarged with Dromore and Saintield to even up the electorates. After all Ballyward’s removal dismembered the old Banbridge Council thus proving the old framework wasn’t sacroscanct.
LikeLike
Mekonged, as I’ve said before, Castlereagh urban is really East Belfast. As Poleglass, Twinbrook and Lagmore are West Belfast and Rathcoole and Glengormley are North Belfast. Unfortunately, these changes would upset the balance of the City Council and we couldn’t have the quango party not holding the keys.
LikeLike
carrickally,
You dont think that the re-org in Belfast will result in any Nat gains?
LikeLike
Sammy, any gains to Nationalists/Republicans will be one or two at the most, still leaving the balance of power in the hands of the Alliance Party.
LikeLike
As a bit of an aside, it has been observed by quite a few people now that Nigel Dodds’ seat is threatened by the changing make up of his constituency and his refusal (or indeed tacit encouragement) to face down the most extremist elements in his constituency, even after they lob a brick at him and knock him out. I’ve read a number of commentators remark that many SDLP and even Alliance ( yes I can think of at least two well known Alliance bloggers based in the constituency) who have said that given the circumstances they might hold their nose and vote Kelly to oust Dodds once and for all. I’m perhaps one of these people. Not a big SF fan but find Dodd’s to be obnoxious at best and wholly sectarian at worst (I usually save the ‘ S’ word for McCausland though. It seems that man can’t order a pizza without getting his department to provide him with a sectarian breakdown of all pizza shops in the vicinity.)
In fact, it could be argued that with the UUP vote collapse and the DUP in control of most unionist votes already anyway, that the support of SDLP and Alliance(who’s transfers in the castle DEA went around 4 to 1 to nationalist candidates!) is keeping Dodds on life support. It’s catch 22 for an SDLP supporter/member. Support the candidate you most agree with and you get vilified as a splitter. Support SF as an (initially) one-off thing and they crow about how they’ve increased their share of the nationalist vote and try to demoralise SDLP hierarchy. Therefore wouldn’t it be better to have an organised forum whereby people can ‘trade’ their voters if they wish? The only problem is that SDLP is behind in most constituencies and not that far ahead in their own seats. For example I’m not sure a SF voter in Upper Bann would wish to swap with an SDLP voter in NB as SF harbour hopes of coming through the middle in UB as they were the biggest party in the assembly elections. It would require a constituency like East Derry being brought into play. The 37% nationalist share is a bit useless split evenly enough between the SDLP and SF, but a lot of ‘swaps’ in favour of the SDLP could make them threatening to Gregory Campbell. That along with shoring up SB in the event of unionist unity in exchange for SF putting serious pressure on NB and UB as well as holding FST.
I respect the SDLP for not getting into pacts, and am grateful that it proved (in 2010 at least) not to be fatal. But in a country where the embarrassment for cobbling together a pan-prod or pan-taig candidate is short-lived and minimal; the Kudos gained for staying out are broadly outweighed by the obvious political (as well as financial) repercussions of losing a seat. But the voters aren’t stupid and it shouldn’t deter them from a tactical initiative. Given that the politicians won’t lose face over it, the voters themselves should be given a tool to stop being represented by the Dodds and Campbells of the world without worrying about compromising themselves.
LikeLike
I think Alban has a large personal vote that seems to resist lending a vote to GK which is fair enough but if a new SDLP candidate was in place you might find that vote collapsing. Cerainly the likes of Comrade Stalin and Gerry Lynch of the Alliance party seem quite frustrated with the Dodds and McCausland capers of recent years. It will be an interesting election in 2015 and I agree I think Dodds is toast. I also agree that if Unionism continues along the unity pact line then Nationalist should respond however it is unlikely to happen whilst McDonnel is still in charge.
LikeLike
Haha, exactly the two Alliance people I had in mind. I believe Gerry Lynch used to go by the nom-de-plume “Sammy Morse” and used to do some great constituency profiles. I’d like him to do some updated ones.
What do you think of the point I’m making Boondock? Bypass the politicains completely and give voters the option of tactically swapping?
LikeLike
Yep those constituency profiles were great as were the profiles by splintered sunrise who unfortunately seems to have either stopped blogging, died or maybe just moved web page
In FPTP elections I think most voters have the sense to tactically vote like FST last time showed (you could say the morale high ground taken by the SDLP ended up costing them an assembly seat there). It is the STV elections were people still seem to fail to realise the importance of transfers something the parties really need to hammer home when they go round the doors. I keep using the North Antrim example if you vote SF no matter how much you dislike the SDLP surely to god someone like O’Loan is still more appealing than Jim Allister
The Mid ulster election last year revealed that Unionists will likely consider a number of unity candidates which is certainly a step back for local politics. The reality is that it really only affects a few seats and as mentioned earlier other than SB where else is it in SF’s interest to step aside. Although in the same way why would the DUP bother with the UUP surely better to kick them when they are down rather than throwing them a few scraps, rumours of Nesbitt getting a free run in Strangford or North Down (if Hermon goes) seem bizarre to say the least as they would both be safe DUP seats.
FST
Even though the last election was so close next time round SF will win and with some breathing room this time.
SB
SF would likely pull out again to try and pressure SDLP to reciprocate elsewhere but even without SF’s help McDonnell would be elected as he has an amazing knack of getting votes from all sorts, tactical SF votes, green votes, socialist votes, a large lending of Alliance votes and not to mention a number of moderate unionists votes (probably because they realise Spratt is a joke and would embarrass the constituency)
Upper Bann
Any move for a unity candidate to come through the middle would be instantly stopped with a unionist unity candidate same for East Derry
NB
It would make a big difference here but hopefully as mentioned earlier the SDLP and Alliance voters will help give Dodds the boot he deserves anyway. The whole camp culture at Twadell might still have a role to play, 2015 is over a year away and a lot could happen between now and then, any deals with residents etc may be seen as a sell out so we may still have a split in the unionist vote if the PUP or god forbid the Protestant coalition entered the race if Doddsy let them down lol
Other than that the only other unity candidate that would have an affect is a unionist unity candidate to oust Alliance in East Belfast
So to sum up I dont think there will be any official Nationalist policy for Unity candidates in the near future but I would say it is quite likely in a few election cycles time especially when alot of the old guard in both parties retire.
LikeLike
No harm in Sinn Féin running a second Euro candidate.
Unless inter party transfers totally collapse SF will still get the seat. If the transfers split evenly there is a minuscule chance of a second SF seat. True, the SDLP could lose out on a chance of a unionist seat, but that seat is far from guaranteed, and the SDLP don’t believe in election pacts, so couldn’t have any complaint.
LikeLike
The Protestant Coalition now seem to be supporting UKIP for the Euros, and Jamie Bryson is disqualified from standing. With less than two months to go, there is still no word from PUP, TUV or NI21 whether they will stand. The much anticipated mass split of the unionist vote doesn’t seem to be happening. At one point it looked like there would be 8 or 9 unionist candidates, but now it just seems like 4, DUP, UUP, UKIP and Conservatives.
LikeLike
With TUV and NI21 both declaring in the last week we now have six unionist parties fighting for 2 seats, and possibly creating a great opportunity for the SDLP. But is that it, are we all in or will the PUP stand as well?
Bryson, Frazer and the 2nd DUP candidate have all fallen by the wayside, but is that it ? Has everyone declared or will the PUP still stand? What about the BNP/ Are they any other crazy fleggers from the remedial wing of Unionism about to stand?
6 Unionists in the field really is a dream come true for the SDLP. A seventh unionist would really be icing on the cake. I know this is a PR election, but there is no way that all those votes from all those parties will all neatly transfer back to the UUP. Thousands will get lost along the way,
LikeLike