The upcoming release of yet more results of the 2011 Census will, no doubt, arouse huge interest and generate number crunching on an industrial scale in an effort to interpret trends and forecast future behaviours. Of course it is the religious background questions that will prove most interesting for this blog. While awaiting the release of further data I thought it might be interesting to provide a little context.
Prediction:
“So I would expect that the 2011 total of 1815000 (-ish) will include around 815000 Catholics (not including migrants), giving a percentage of about 45%. Protestants will still outnumber Catholics, but will only be a whisker over 50%.” Horseman April 2010
Actual
“The population on Census Day was 1,810,900 – the highest ever recorded in
Northern Ireland.” Nisra Census Report 2012
In other words Horsemans prediction was accurate to within 0.2% . That is astounding.
Yet we now know that immigrants in 2009 accounted for at least 39,000 0r 2% of the total (see below).
It is arguable that this total may have increased, if anything, between 2009 and 2011.
NI Assembly Research and Information Service
Research Paper
- “Since 2004, Northern Ireland has welcomed a disproportionate number of A8
citizens (particularly Polish people) compared with the rest of the UK.
- The A8 stock population is estimated to have risen from 30,000 in 2007 to
39,000 in 2009.”
It may be assumed that a majority of these immigrants are of a Catholic background, eg: Poles, Portugese, Phillipinos.
In addition we already know that Catholics are in a majority at every age below 37. This is the cohort that has the most babies of course.
We have already seen that people are living longer and a majority of those in the older age groups are Protestant/Unionist in outlook.
It will be interesting to see if Horsemans prediction of a 45%/51% split in the religious background demographic holds true or if immigration has, in fact, accelerated the process.
If, and it’s a big if, the Protestant population percentage actually falls below 50% the effects upon Unionism will be very interesting to observe.
"We in coming days may be" 
Another thing to take into consideration is the migration of young workers to Australia/New Zealand, Britain etc. In is in the age groups 20-24 and 25-29 that have the highest % of Catholics. This migration might make a small dent in the % of Catholics though not too much.
As you said Eastern European immigration to the North will brings those numbers back up however they will not be Irish nationalists.
Interesting all same the reaction from Loyalists when it will be confirmed about small but important changes that are happening in loyalist heartland areas.
East Belfast will be one to watch out for in particular Ravenhill, Woodstock etc.
I note on Slugger Gerry Lynch talking about the sdlp getting 10% vote in areas such as Belvoir and Jackie McDonalds neighbourhood. It be interesting to see if these are protestant voting sdlp or if their is an actual Catholic presence now in these areas.
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Oakleaf,
Good points. I think this is the first Census where inward, as well as outward migration will be a factor. I have seen the comments you refer to and I am looking forward to analysing the figures in depth at ward level.
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This census will without a doubt be most different from pass ones. 10 years of relative peace, 8 years of break neck housing developments followed by a big spike in youth unemploment and migration, large scale (by previous standards) immigration to here, low fertility level followed by a large increase in recent years and I’m sure there are many other trends the census will show.
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Im not convinced about Eastern European migration being a factor. I am a friend of Magdalena who ran for SDLP in East Belfast. The result was disappointing but surprisingly perhaps she in Victoria DEA and another friend Seams in Pottinger got more council votes than Assembly votes on the same day….so tactical voting. While I take the point that burning Polish flags may politicise some Poles, the more likely response is that it will make people keep a low profile.
Ive never properly addressed the issue of a migrant vote, partly because it is extremely uncomfortable and stirs up a degree of resentment. Put frankly, running a “Portuguese” candidate in Portadown cost the SDLP a council seat. The tactic of running three candidates to get one seat seemed a good idea and should have worked. In part the SDLP wanted/wants to identify with a vulnerable community and in part there seemed a good logical argument but frankly the Portuguese community in Portadown did not reciprocate and too many Portadown residents saw it as opportunistic of SDLP to be “taking the side of the Portuguese”.
My own theory is that the Portuguese community in Portadown and Dungannon are not actually Portuguese but rather regard themselves as migrants to Europe itself….from Timor-Leste, Cape Verde etc.
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Portuguese they may speak but ethnic I doubt. Most have pretty dark skin which points to more exotic origins.
I take it political parties in Dungannon and Portadown etc print lit in foreign languages
. Every vote helps.
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The question on religion is used in NI to extrapolate the respondents constitutional ideology – presumably the religion question is actually needed in NI because of the segregation in education and therefore for planning(it is also of course a UK format) – but – arguably if the census provides important politcal information then why not ask the question directly. Do you describe yourself as Nationalist or Unionists or Neither.
A growing problem with using the religion question as a proxy for establish constitutional preference is the tendency of Northern Irish Unionists to give no religion as their answer and when you then throw in the large Catholic immigrant community it further muddies the waters.
Although a big fan of Horseman’s I always felt a bit uncomfortable about his talking numbers of Protestants and Catholics rather Nationalists and Unionists as it mispresents Norn Iron’s problems (I appreciate he was a Prod himself) and also felt a little uncomcortable with discussing higher Protestant death rates in postitive terms.
Unfortunately for those like myself who look to the impending release of these figures for confirmation that Ulster is indeed doomed, I suspect the fiures will be a little disappointing as the demographics of the 2 communities appear to have somewhat converged.
The fact the ROI has committed economic and possible political suicide since the last census means that these census figures, even if healthy green growth is recorded, will have reduced ideological significance – though they may keep a smile on the chops of SF and the SDLP – but there will be no rush to demand a border to poll as ‘Nationalists’ in the North are unlikley to wish to align themselves with an economic basket case – a point the Unionists will take some delight in highlighting even if their demographic future is not in the rudest of health.
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Sammy,
Your point about the Republic is arguable. Yep, bad few years but the economy is in growth again and the downturn came off a very high base level. The standard of living down South is one of the highest in the EU, higher GDP per person,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/05/european-economy-guide
And a higher quality of life,
http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-top-ten-quality-of-life-map.html
I see your point about equating Religion with voting intentions. I would argue that, given the polarised nature of Northern politics, the liklehood is that Catholic’s are more likely to aspire to re-union. This is by no means to state that they all are but the correlation between the % of population who are Catholic and the % who vote for the two main Nationalist parties is undeniable.
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The uncomfortable truth is that FF (the republican party) have set back Unity as a realistic prospect for the foreseable future – good green Census figures will be warmly grreted by me and of course by SF and the SDLP but there will be no demand for a border poll and that will tell the us that Ulster is (unfortunately) quite some distance from being doomed.
Economically we just have to hope that the wheel turns once again.
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Sammy,
Fianna Fail ? please explain if you would.
They have gone very quiet up North though having actively been organising over the past few years. Perhaps FJH has had a quiet word 😉
The Economic wheel has already turned in my opinion, I’ve linked to the evidence above. The one economic indicator still in trouble is Unemployment but even that has turned a corner.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0801/breaking21.html
In comparison the Northern rate is still increasing.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0816/1224322256000.html
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BD,
I’m simply saying that FF as the holders of the economice reins(FG the media and regulators also have a major case to answer) have to take responsilbity for wrecking the country and with it any realistic chance of there even being a serious debate about unity.
In relation to – if the North is worse off relatively that the South – that is not the issue but the relative economic health of the current holder of the title deeds for the North i.e. the British and the ROI. The idea that ROI who have way more than a 100 mortgage on their own property (ie the South) might be heading downtown to see the bank manager about expanding their property portfolio(ie taking on the North) is I’m a afraid a bit of a nonsense.
ps I’m expecting Oweny Patterson to embarass SF and the SDLP by having a consultation with the public on the need for a border poll as he tries to deserpately to look busy and pretend he has a proper job to do.
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Sammy, Relax.
The British Government will do what is best for the, eh, British Government and a subvention to the North sure isn’t. Why do you think they are constantly on about “Rebalancing” the economy.
FF will play a long game but it will recover.
The economy down South will also recover, it already is on the way as shown above. Don’t forget the UK had to also seek an IMF bailout in 1976. Conveniently forgotten now by the media and the likes of Jim Allistair.
A border poll will happen but probably not for the next ten years.
I think you may be making a mistake as to the dynamics of what will drive voting in that poll. Economic self interest is hugely relevant in any election but a border poll brings emotion into play. A border poll will have a massive turnout on all sides, people who do not vote will vote in this and not neccessarily the way the Bel Tel surveys say they will. Unionists may comfort themselves that a majority is in favour of the union but, as you know, things change quickly and how people vote on an emotive issue is unpredictable.
The Southern economy, right now, is light years ahead of that north of the border. It is recovering from a severe shock but it is recovering.
That is why the Demographic balance is important.
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BD,
This census is appearing in a different climate to the last one and Nat. optimism surrounding it is rightly tempered by economic meltdown in the South and probably slowing green demographics in the North.
When and if a border poll will take place is a matter for conjecture but what we can say with some certainty is that the coming census results will not lead to any immediate calls for one – except perhaps from Unionists.
Hollowing out the Union from the inside – is the only real Nat. strategy in the interim and hopefully these results will indicate that tis process can continue in the interim.
re. “FF will play a long game but it will recover”.
The disappearance of probably the most corrupt political party in post war Europe is to be welcomed even if they werent also responsbile for the current economic debacle.
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Hmmmm Sammy,
“the most corrupt political party in post war Europe”
Strong words.
FF built their power base on clientalism certainly and were riddled with some incredibly corrupt individuals, Ray Burke, Charlie, of course, Pee Flynn and others.
Will have to give some thought to that charge though, a bit sweeping I think, have you a personal thing going on here?
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BD,
re. “Will have to give some thought to that charge”. Yes, a well thought out Euro league table would be interesting, I believe our European record in this area, like in the song contest is unrivalled.
re. ‘have you a personal thing going on here?’ I’m not sure that personal is the right word but I do have very strong feelings on the subject and I think perhaps some of us (myself excepted of course) have a tendency to be far too forgiving of those who have pissed all over us – simply because they are doing that pissing from the inside of our own tent.
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If, and it’s a big if, the Protestant population percentage actually falls below 50% the effects upon Unionism will be very interesting to observe.
It will show David Trimble and those in the UUP who were smart enough to do a deal got it right. Securing a place in government forever for Unionists in the North even though they might not be a majority in the North for all that much longer.
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Hobo,
Thanks for returning to topic ! (much as I enjoy having a wee debate with Sammy)
You are right about the UUP doing the deal, remember that the DUP excluded themselves at the time but subsequently came on board.
That was the only pragmatic option they had.
I happen to think that when Unionism becomes the “Junior” government partner it will be very difficult for them to come to terms with that, but Nationalist parties, where they are already a majority (eg: Local Councils), have not abused that position, unlike the reverse situation.
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hoboroad.
“It will show David Trimble and those in the UUP who were smart enough to do a deal got it right.”
I think that strategically for Unionism it was the right decision – if Unionism had not played ball in return for an IRA ceasefire then they would (as ever) have had a deal cut for them under less favourable terms. The ‘framework documents’ reminded them of that.
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It might cause some jitters for Unionism not being in the majority but they would get over it. I think some will be more shocked that catholics are now living in Towns and Villages which had very few catholics living in them previously. For example I recently bumped into a girl I went to school with and she is now living in a village that I always thought of as staunchly loyalist. Not only is she living there she named several other people I went to school with who are living in the same village as her.
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I went to uni with some Lurgan folk who are now living in Magheralin which I always thought was loyalist or maybe it always had a small nat presence?
This whole carry on in Rasharkin is interesting. All along this part of the Bann the villages are getting more catholic even though countryside around it is quite loyalist. The same is happening in Portglenone. This used to be a staunch loyalist town. Even though flags still fly around the 12th it masks the changing demographics which is now probably 50/50 or majority catholic.
The same happened in Kilrea again used to be a loyalist town is now probably 80% catholic.
You would find in this part of Antrim and neighbouring south Derry a very young catholic population all from large families (for todays standards) who are are in the process of buying houses.
With tighter planning laws it is harder to build in the country so are moving to towns and villages that used to be ‘orange’.
What I’ve noticed and its a shame that in south Derry a lot of protestants are moving to new builds in loyalist towns of Tobermore and Upperlands. These two areas have grown massively. Basically they are abandoning Magherafelt, Castledawson, Maghera etc even though they still have quite large protestant populations except for Maghera which had one loyalist estate at the bottom of the town. The mixed areas of the town are getting greener and the nat top of the town is expanding further up the Coleraine road.
Its a pity the way things are going.
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re. “Its a pity the way things are going.”
That is the difficulty with the headcountery debate when your ideological position is advanced or otherwise depending on the fertility and (death rates) of your own and themmuns tribe.
In a ‘divided society’ such as Ulster increasing numbers of one tribe will result in huddling by the other and territory being marked out as ‘green’ or ‘orange’.
Presumably there are many other (historical) examples throughout Europe but probably more in contempoary Africa where this anthrolpological phenomeon can be observed.
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Very interesting to hear local info and anecdotes such as these.
There seems to be a trend that when a local population reaches a certain demographic tipping point, Unionists appear to move on to a more Unionist area.
I don’t really understand why that is and it is a pity.
I have to say that although Bangor is a “Unionist” town, I have never felt a reason to move out or experienced any difficulties.
Maybe I lack the instincts or sensitivities.
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Oakleaf,
By the way, in anticipation of the release of the Census figures, I have collated the 2001 information broken into Local Council Wards for comparison purposes. I should be able to release detailed trends quite quickly including South Derry and Tyrone.
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In the Cookstown and Magherafelt town wards you should see a sizeable immigrant population compared to well forever.
Moneymore ward will be interesting as there has been a lot of new builds. Again this used to be a very loyalist town which is now very mixed.
I’d expect Magherafelt council to be 66/67 catholic compared to 64 the last time. The towns are generally getting ‘greener’.
Cookstown lgd wards I wouldn’t be so sure but again going greener.
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Magheralin is quite strange because there is a long established but small Cathoil community. And I have heard it is growing. I dont know enough about the Derry/Dungannon side of Lough Neagh but for nearly 30 years I have lived in two Lough Neagh villages in County Antrim and County Armagh. My impression of loughside living was always that villages were alternately Catholic and Protestant……eg Coagh (Protestant) and Ardboe (Catholic)…..or Aghalee (Protestant) and Aghagallon (Catholic). I would agree that demographics have changed. ….Glenavy is now a Catholic village and Crumlin a Catholic small town. But I think its always the case that it takes a generation for people to assert themselves or that people dont assert themselves at all (Holywood) or reach a kind of non-political activity.
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Community relations may be much more civil in the country but is just as every bit divided as north Belfast.
Anybody from the country would be able to tell one area from another. You could drive along a country road for several miles and not be any the wiser.
You also talked about several villages of opposite sides of the community. South Derry is divided as can be but relations are generally good.
Knockcloughrim (prod) beside Gulladuff (Taig), Innishrush (prod) beside Clady (Taig), Upperlands (prod) beside Swatragh (taig), Tobermore (prod) beside Ballinscreen also know as Draperstown (Taig), Desertmartin (prod) Destermartin countryside (Taig) etc.
The demographic change hasn’t really happened in the countryside its town and villages changing that is making the difference. Bellaghy, Maghera once mixed but not really any longer and then towns like Magherafelt, Moneymore, Castledawson getting mixed unlike before.
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Bangordub are there any council areas or wards you expect to see changes in?
The surburbs of Belfast and Derry will be interesting. I expect some waterside wards in Derry to show big growths in population. I wondet what Gregory will say as he seems to have an opinion on everything.
Derraghy ward which covers Lagmore/Mount Eagles will see a massive increase in population as will Mallusk which covers the several Mayfield estates.
There also has been a lot of growth around Lisburn, Craigavon and Banbridge.
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Oakleaf,
You are probably right, I prefer to use evidence to back up my points but I have no doubt that there will be a few surprises when the results are released
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Forgot to add the wards which make up Dungannon town I would not be surprised if 50% of children in the 0-4 band are children of immigrants
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That is an important point. The children of immigrants are the ones who become politically active. I know a lot of Polish people who work with me. The burning of their flag and a poster has politicised them, Watch this space
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A lot of them seem to live in east Belfast for some reason. Is there a lot of available housing or what?
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No sdlp voter myself but if the sdlp has any sense they should run the polish women again to see if her vote improves any.
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The message needs to get out to the Polish community that the best way to get even with the flag burning unionists is to vote for nationalists. Could be worth a percentage point
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It used to be said protestants moved out of a area when the RUC families that lived there started moving out. I don’t know if that is true or not but I have heard it said.
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Theres an area in Dunmurry called Areema that use to be unionist and a lot of ruc families lived there. When they moved I think the vast majority of protestants moved. Strange really.
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There was also a large RUC presence in Riverdale in the 1960s. And indeed one legendary ex-RUC man lived in Norfolk Parade or around there until well past Internment.
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Do tell. ?
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There was always a Catholic presence in the RUC and many lived about the Falls Road. It was always good craic to hear my father and especially Auntie Sheila talk about the old time coppers such as Tintoes, Paddy-Me-Arse and the legendary Pig McNeilly.
The Pig was stationed in Springfield Road. And when I was four years old I went missing in 1956. And my absence reported to RUC. And I vaguely remember being brought there….my first brush with the RUC.
According to legend, The Pig was much reviled by his own colleagues who enjoyed winding him up. Allegedly one of them paid some kid sixpence (or in some versions a shilling) to leave a bucket containing potato skins, stale bread at Springfield Road and say “this is for the Pig”.
What I do know and can vaguely remember is that I was in a buggy being pushed by Auntie Sheila (my grannys house was in Beechmount) and she was crossing the road at the Royal Victoria Hospital. I remember my cousin who was a student nurse waving at us from Bostock House (the nurses home).
Although I did not know it at the time, The “Pig” was lecturing Auntie Sheila on how to use the new fangled pedestrian crossing It has moved a little from the original location).
According to Auntie Sheila the “aul git” had her in tears crossing and re-crossing the road. Although I dont remember the incident as such…it was mentioned enough times in my Auntie Sheilas lifetime.
As I recall The Pig lived in retirement in a an avenue off the Glen Road…possibly Norfolk Parade…but he and (I think) wife were forced to leave in or around Internment.
A lot of cops lived in Riverdale. The story was that if you lived there, you never had to phone the police just bang on a wall. One of the bullies at my grammar school was the son of a cop although we were probably 15/16 before I really knew that. And of course that was the time that things were getting nasty.
That bully joined the RUC and if I ever meet you I will tell you more about that.
Sad postscript to the Pig McNeilly story. Around the time we got married (1982) we were travelling up the Glen Road and a burger bar/chip shop had been opened. It was called Pig McNeillys. I thought it a bit tacky and in fairness a lot of other people must have thought the same.It was quickly renamed.
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The usual suspects in the Belfast Telegraph (and those message boards allied to the Tele) will take crumbs of comfort where they can. Many will not choose to identify themselves as “Catholic” and that will be interpreted by “lets get alongerists” as a bad thing.
The Census is merely a guide and subject to what people SAY they are….not what they ARE. About 25 years ago, my employer asked us all to identify ourselves as Catholic or Protestant or Other. For the purposes of Norn Iron legislation, “Catholic” is attendance at a “Catholic” primary school…..”Other” was essentially someone brought up in England. Staff were given about six months to comply. Most did not….a combination of laziness, alleged “principle” (mostly from unionist staff) and a general reluctance to do anything that an employer asks. After the six months….(In)Human Resources went thru staff records and passed them on.
About five years later, the British had a similar “ethnic” survey which was confidential of course and operated from London. I cheerfully identified myself as an ethnic minority. ……I think “ethnic :Other”………Never really thought any more about it until about two years later local Human Resources phoned me and said “……er FJH……I have known you 20 years and er I didnt er know …..and er I know it might be a sensitive matter but have you made a mistake in filling form in”.
Well of course I apologised profusely. But as it turned out….Human Resources in Belfast had been told by their London superiors, you better contact some of your staff because they werea bit surprised that there were so many Asians, Afro Caribeans, West Africans working in Belfast.
Of course the simple explanation is that a considerable number of staff did not take it seriously. And certainly thats my experience with a British census. I refuse to take it seriously and if anyone actually phoned me tomorrow and wanted me to confirm stuff Id written, Id be a bit confused.
Indeed my brother-in-law messed up his form and asked for another. There were two forms in his house and his children filled the messed up form and…….this was accidently given to a guy who called for it.
For official purposes my brother in law is a transexual.
I dont know whether he actually provided the correct form…..I dont want to know….because it makes the story less funny.
The long winded-point is ……dont believe census forms. …..especially mine.
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I see several councils in England are going to court over census figures as they’ve said their boroughs figures have been undercounted.
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Mr Fitz,
Is that a general thing, being a rebel and opposing being boxed into a corner, or should I take you as a one off?
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I think its two different things really. The “Employer” thing is basically a way of just hitting back. Screw up their statistics. Basically a game. Them and Us.
The Census thing is certainly more …political. I vaguely remember in 1961 that it was the RUC who did it. I can recall a RUC man in our house going thru questions. In 1971 there was a fairly half hearted attempt to boycott the Census…..I would have been 18 or 19 and I definitely recall trying to persuade my father to boycott it.
I think in general there are very few “powers” that real people actually have. People can choose to enthusiastically be part of it all (“Royal” Jubilee) or to not be part of it…using any means possible….even refusing to use the “N******* I******” words.
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bd,
I think (the last time I looked at it) about 6 Stormo seats which could potentially switch from Orange to Green if not in the next Stormo election then perhaps the one after – dependent on census indications* giving Nats a majority.
Comparing the detailed figures in North Belfast will be interesting but projecting the seats losses by Unionism* at Stormo based on census figures has not been done – at least in what I have seen. Paddy Reilly over on Slugger used to do quite a detailed analyis – perhaps you can lure him over here when/if you are talking to him next on Slugger?
*assuming no boundary changes
p.s. There is some danger in having an Unionist (SOS ) who has little to do but may wish to pick up some badly needed Unionist votes (7 or 8) deciding that a bit of boundary adjustment is required – though it may be dressed up as reducing the size of Stormo after a bit of ‘consulatation’.
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Catholics seem to be able to live anywhere in the North it does not matter if they are in the majority or not. But Protestants are only really happy to live in areas were they are the majority. Otherwise the Protestants move out but what is the tipping point for them?
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I haven’t worked out the tipping point but I suspect it is 50% plus 1. I am curious as to why though
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http://www.u.tv/News/Polish-family-escape-arson-attack/4fd48ef0-e3f0-43a5-bc47-e054f482abfc
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bd,
If you are doubting the fact that FF (plus FG regulators media et al) have made such a pig’s Mickey out of the Southern economy have read of this thread (below) over on Politics.ie.
I think there is a bit of denial implicit in this thread (and with Nats in general) about the extent to which the irresponsibility of the South has wrecked any chance of even a debate about unity – for the forseeable future – and a tendency to shrug of the disaster that is the Southern economy as somehow anti-Irish rhetoric or just hope that it will all go away.
Well – as the boul Grizzly might well opinion – it hasn’ gone away you know.
http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/194770-great-news-last-we-heading-mass-defaults-mc-williams-8.html
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I think Sammy is right to a large extent but Nationalists being in denial is actually better than admitting it and giving in aid and comfort to the “enemy”. If we start thinking that there is no prospect of Irish unity then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. More realistically these things ebb and flow and nationalism is clearly on the back foot and will be for years. Unionism was on the back foot for years….and wont ever go back to the way it was. The older I get the more inclined I am to think that Ireland will live longer than I will. Its been around for thousands of years and in different formats. Irelands story will outlive us.
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Mr Fitz,
I am sure you know your History, The Celts, Vikings, Normans, English, Lowland Scots, Jacobeans, Williamites etc etc. All have invaded (I put the Jacobites in there to wind you up) and all have been absorbed yet we endure.
Your comment is accurate and astute.
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Lads,
I am preparing a blog on the actual state of the Irish economy, you may have noticed that the State has quietly returned to the Bond Markets and is on course to exit the IMF programme on target next year. All economic indicators are on the up or have at least stabilised. The UK economy, at the time of writing, is in real trouble and as you know, London will protect it’s own interests at all costs. I’ll back up these points in the blog to follow, forgive my tardiness in replying, explained in post to follow
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FJH,
Denial can me a great man – often availed of by my goodself in times of trouble – in terms of political ideology I’m not so sure.
Trying to pretend that ‘Ulster is Doomed’ when it is less doomed than the rest of Ireland is not going to get us anywhere. Nats in the North who have been preparing themselves for impending nuptials by the use of violence and more latterly by its non use now find themselves – census results permitting – almost ready to go to church and no sign of the groom – who having got somewhat carried away by the pre-marriage celebrations has squandered his savings on a number of dead-certs which duly tripped up when confronted by a few fences.
No. Nats in the North need to tell it like it is – the people who have set back the cause of Iirish unity are not the British, not the Unoinists but as in earlier times the Free Staters.
bd,
About 50% of Economics (like psychology and advertising) is a complete waste of time – the problem is nobody knows which 50 percent – which allows the partially informed, like myself, to jabber on about these subjects. .
Having read failry extensively I think it simplest and fairest to divide those with a view on the Irish economy into those who think it is fecked, those who dont.
I’m now firmly in the fecked category – and returning ot the bond market and complying with IMF requirments (although welcome) doesnt alter that nor does stats that Britian is in trouble and the Plain People of the South and North know that very well and that is why nobody is bothering to ask for a border poll – not even SF.
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Sammy,
I’m not calling for a border poll. Not yet anyhow. Economics, and yes I have studied it formally, is cyclical by nature. The UK had an IMF bailout in 1976. Things will change I assure you and yes I do believe the South will recover, the evidence is clearly there that this is already happening. I also regard the term “Free State” as one of abuse. I am a slightly left of centre constitutional Republican. I am not affiliated to any political party and I hold my views as matters of principle rather than expediency or for personal gain.
If I may address your points to FJH without prejudice, I think you have a very good point. The argument needs to be put, by Northern Nationalists to Southerners (And Unionists) as to the benefits and contributions that will flow from re-union. I will happily draft a list if it would help?
Although I regard everyone in the North as part of the Irish Nation I am very aware of the damage done over decades and the propaganda war waged by the likes of the Sindo (Irish Independent) and various partitionist apologists and revisionist’s.
I am also aware that there is a substantial number who do not regard themselves as part of my Nation. That is their right and I absolutely respect it.
FJH, has the SDLP a plan in this regard?
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bd,
re. “I also regard the term “Free State” as one of abuse.”
So do I, and use it appropriately – i.e. for partionists.
Of course economics can be cyclical, just look at the Chinese, its just sometimes the gaps between the cycles can be very, very long and will perhaps be even longer for us if we stay in the Euro and try to pay off debts (that private companies criminally amassed with no one in prison yet) or perhaps not. As yet there does not seem to be a proper debate on defaulting – we just stick the old head in the sand – whilst repeating – that it will all be ok.
There are just as as many economists, probably more, who believe that we are fecked rather than those who believe we are not – all of whom have whom have studied the same crypto-science which breathes fresh life into the old chestnut that economists have predicted ten of of the last 5 recessions – but yet failed to spot that houses prices wouldnt keep rising for ever.
re. “damage done over decades and the propaganda war waged by the likes of the Sindo (Irish Independent) and various partitionist apologists and revisionist’s.”
Nothing by comparison to those running the country – as mentioned previously we are often far to easy on ourselves and it takes some stupidity on behalf of the electorate to vote in a party as obviously corrupt as FF, who then turned out not just to be totally corrupt but criminally incompetent.
The horrible reality is that to many outside observers, Ireland looks like a failed state or a failing state, or a state that is doomed – Unionists as FJH mentioned above have never had it so good – and this is one we can’t land at the door of perfidious Albion.
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Afternoon folks,
I’ve been quietly reading all of the above and have found it genuinely, quite interesting. With out wishing to seem to want to avoid argument, I would say that both BD and Sammy are right regarding a number of points for a UI.
BD, at the moment I’m working down in Dublin and would say that, yes, there are a number of things that point towards progress regarding the economy here. I work in legal/finance (primarily funds work) and business is brisk and expanding. Ireland is the European capital for funds work and is kicking its primary competitor’s ass at the moment, taking work off it left, right and centre (I’m referring to Luxembourg btw). Ireland did make a tentative entry into the bond market, and yes, this was ‘successful’, however, if my memory serves me right it was the flipping of an existing bond for a longer period of time which took place just before or during Inda’s visit to the Davos junket so he had something positive to say. This was news, but if you actually look into it a bit more, you will see that the parties to this happened to be southern financial institutions which just happen to be either fully or part nationalised. Further, the amounts involved were not that great either, €350m+ if my memory serves me right.
Now, having said all of this, yes, we are progressing with the troika’s programme and are sticking to it well, however, I do not buy for one moment that this is necessarily a good thing as the plan deviated from regular IMF policy; bond holders still received 100 cents to the euro when they should have taken a hit. Expect some movement at a European level with regard to the debt either being lengthened for payback, the ECB stepping in to do a swap (again, lengthening the time to pay it all off) and/or Ireland receiving European funding to act as a stimulus also.
Sammy, I think you are right that Nats are in denial regarding the financial state of the South and are on the back foot, that FF has done more to save the union than any PUL or British government ever could, however, I would also note that Norn Iron is not exactly in great shape either. Sure, it is in the sterling zone and will not be kicked out (though I would laugh if that did happen), however, it brings in taxes of £9b per annum whilst it needs £20b per annum to run. Talk of the devolution of corporation taxes to Stormont and ultimately Norn Iron becoming self financing are laughable in the extreme. Do we honestly think that we will find £11b in say the coming parliament or between now and 2020. Can we honestly foresee Norn Iron’s economy growing by 10.5% per annum in order to achieve this?
No, while FF is the PUL’s greatest friend at the moment, a Nats’ greatest friend is the English tax payer. Just remind them when there local libraries are getting shut, or their kids are paying £9k per annum to go to Thames Valley or some other poly that they are subsidising a whole lot of people who don’t want to be in their union, a political construct that pays for their crumbling schools how? Norn Iron has failed, since it’s construction it has caused trouble at all levels and it still does. It was designed as a sectarian headcount because some people could either not deal with their empire crumbling while their friends here could not bear being a minority to a people they frankly disdained and treated as near sub-human.
Talk of Ireland being viewed from outside as a ‘failed state’ is frankly ridiculous though to be expected of people here in Ireland as we seemingly love to think we are worse than what we are, whilst conversely thinking things are better than what they are also at times. As someone who returned to Ireland a year ago having been away for 6 years, our troubles were viewed as something completely in line with many other countries. There are no soup kitchens opening up here like there are in Greece though there undoubtedly is poverty to contend with here, but you merely have to go out on a Saturday night in Belfast, Dublin, Cushendun, Shannon or Lurgan and you will see, yes, it is not as busy as 5 years ago, but people are still going out, people still have money to spend and the world has not crashed in and we’re entering Mad Max Welcome to Thunderdome territory just yet.
My own opinion, for what it is worth, is that the South needs a resolution to securing an extension on the repayment terms so as to lessen the annual fees. The money saved is ploughed into continuing the upgrading of our infrastructure so long as it is non-housing related (so roads, bridges, railways, broadband facilities, 3rd level education research funding), however, in reality I expect the country to merely muddle along as will most of the Eurozone in general.
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fc,
“a Nats’ greatest friend is the English tax payer.”
Yes, that is true – but proportionally Ulster(political bit) is not very large and there is an awareness (presumably) that if they(British) feck up again it will very likely be a lot more expesnsive.
There is also the fact that Britan has many (Nat) Irish people and descendants who sympathise with the idea of Ireland as a single political entity and also that our non Nat Irish brethern dont do themselves any favour – particualrly in the summer – with their pro-British antics.
In relation to the ROIs economy – if there is not an upturn fairly soon personal/morgage debt may well combine with State debt to cripple the country for the foreeable future – although multinat companies will still arrive – many of the inhabitants may be heading for the exits.
ps Interested on your thoughts on post over on FJHs neck of the woods regarding the different versions of the IRAs.
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Sammy,
I perhaps should have expanded on my use of the phrase ‘Nat’ to encompass our friends in Scotland and Wales of course. There is already a clear build up of Little Englander resentment in keeping ungrateful Celts in a lifestyle they’ve become accustomed to, I say keep reminding them of this lifestyle and how the UK’ s fringes have really enjoyed some great benefits of being in the UK, unfortunately, England really hasn’t, though if you want an empire I say bleed your pay masters dry for the privilege, ungrateful occupied native that I am.
Regarding your second stanza, I couldn’t agree more. As an aside, I have been having a bit of a laugh reading IJP’s blog and some of the contributors who do flock there. If it takes a 400 word stanza for you to describe what nationality you are, IMHO, you are actually confused, not enlightened.
ROI’s economy, I will say this; I was having a few pints with a close friend who works for a Bank here, mid-management position. They’re working on the large debtors book trying to arrange alternate schemes, work the debt etc. I asked her what I think is a fairly simple question: is it getting any worse? I got a simple answer, ‘Yes’.
The mortgage and personal debt is already in the mix so to speak Sammy. We took on Anglo and all the other bank debts or nationalised them, we took on the personal and mortgage debts of a lot of people. The multi nats are still in Dublin and that is not only because of the tax situation but you have a great workforce here that is used to working with ‘the big boys’. This gives everyone an attitude that you cannot buy and which, sadly from my own personal experiences, those working in Norn Iron completely lack.
We are in a cycle now where everyone is paying off their debt, thus creating a trap. Remember my debt is your income, but everyone is paying off their debts and no one is buying anything. I think the time for people to self-mutilate themselves because of past excess has well and truly passed, the economy is on its knees across the ‘developed world’ and the only body that can do anything about this all is governments. What is needed is for governments to step in and starting spending some money to get us out of this mess as the public has too much debt on its book and is not spending for fear of being out of a job and thus saving for a rainy day whilst servicing debt.
No, the problem is the debt overhang, which as I noted earlier, if this is not dealt with at a European level we can expect to see more problems like this
http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/press-releases/Pages/ResidentialMortgageArrearsandRepossessionsStatisticsQ22012.aspx
Re your post on the many versions of the IRA, I’ll drop you a line in a few minutes a chara. I did read it and thought it an interesting one but I will pass comment on a few things or see if we can tease a few things out.
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fs,
“The mortgage and personal debt is already in the mix so to speak”.
I’m not so sure about that. The current state of the banks is based on the perceived ability of home owners to repay(ie the level of bad debts) and that is, as your pal in the bank has indicated, is still getting worse.
Many people have been using their accumulated capital to pay for their current outgoings and that will also feed into the deteriorating situation.
In the referndum debate not even SF was able to suggest or risk putting forward telling the Europeans to feck off regarding bond holder debt that has been left to parties that follow a genuine socialist policy and would be quite happy to see the back of American Multinats.
The problem is, that it may well be the sensible (in the social democratic) sense to threaten the Europeans with cant-pay-wont-pay and be prepared to start agian outside the Euro if the EU wont play ball.
I suspect, which is what the Irish government is praying for, and what you indicate above that there will be some movement by the EU on debt coupled with a fairly large infrastructure spend being sanctioned in Greece, Spain and Ireland which does not (magically) add to these countries debt.
Some time ago, I read an article in the Irish Times that Ireland would be a net exported of electricity if the Atlantic tidal power was properly harnessed – this is the type of project – expensive and long term project that hopefully we will see some proper investment in if this ‘new’ money does actually turn up from Europe to stimulate the economy.
Great debate, on the Newsnight clip, trouble is, much as I would like the boy Kruger to be on the money, I suspect at best he’s only about half right.
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Sammy,
‘I’m not so sure about that. The current state of the banks is based on the perceived ability of home owners to repay(ie the level of bad debts) and that is, as your pal in the bank has indicated, is still getting worse.’
True, however, as we do own large swathes of the banks and gave an implicit guarantee to make sure they don’t go to the wall then it would work that the personal debt I have alluded to is in the mix, so to speak.
I think SF is in a massive quandary down here in the South. If it were to actually prescribe something sensible like leaving the Euro (the 21st version of the Gold Standard crises in the 30s) it would be ridiculed by ‘sensible’ economists, as well as our largely pliant pols and media. This would be seen as the worst kind of euroscepticism about. What’s more, if it were to work SF would not get any of the credit and people would note that a clock does strike the same time twice a day and SF may be right but for all of the wrong reasons. As an aside, or slight tangent, I always find it HILARIOUSLY funny when southerners talk about SF not knowing much about finance compared to the gombeens running the show now or previously (seriously, I would let Inda run a sweet shop nevermind a country). Now, understand, I refuse to bring SF up in the work place as I am the sole Northerner and it would fit a stereotype (that most Dubs think all Northern Nats are Shinners). But they do always bring SF and like to see what reaction I will give, which is none as always.
‘t may well be the sensible (in the social democratic) sense to threaten the Europeans with cant-pay-wont-pay and be prepared to start agian outside the Euro if the EU wont play ball.’
I couldn’t agree more, though, we don’t have to go outside of the euro or the EU to do this. There is no mechanism to ‘kick a country out’ of the euro per se, never mind the EU in its entirety. A country would have to agree to this, which gives a country quite a bit of leverage. In all fairness, the time for having went with this course of action where maximum leverage could be had was probably in 2010. Most financial institutions have went over all of their liabilities to certain nations, have put in place counter measures and raised capital. If they were caught on the hop utter pandemonium would ensue and I imagine some would have been a bit more pliant to Irish needs.
Sammy, in essence regarding the debt, there will be movement one way or the other, and by that I mean either the EU puts up some kind of grand investment fund for infrastructure projects with some pan european element, or countries default on their increasingly unmanageable debt, it’s entirely up to them.
‘Great debate, on the Newsnight clip, trouble is, much as I would like the boy Kruger to be on the money, I suspect at best he’s only about half right.’
Well, what part do you think he is right on and where do you think he is not?
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re.'”There is no mechanism to ‘kick a country out’ of the euro per se, never mind the EU in its entirety.”
I think this is a bit of red-herring, if you dont play ball then you dont get the money – if you dont get more money – then you are out – ie you have to leave and devalue as you cant pay your bills. This may happen to Greece – the infrastrucure fund may yet save them otherwise its goodnight from herself (Ang).
re. SF and economics, the promlem unfrutnaltely was of Grizzly’s own making he had been doing so well for so long debating with the Ulster and British media that he just forgot to do his Leaving Cert homework (that would have the job rightly) before he went on telly to do THAT debate.
The idea that post-bust, FF, or indeed most of the economists who cheered on the boom in defiance of gravity can point the finger at SF for not knowing about economics is as funny as having a minister for finance to didnt have a bank account.
re. “I suspect at best he’s only about half right.’ Well, what part do you think he is right on and where do you think he is not?
Well as I mentioned above and dipping into my bag of trusty old chestnuts I find “About 50% of Economics (like psychology and advertising) is a complete waste of time – the problem is nobody knows which 50 percent”
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‘I think this is a bit of red-herring, if you dont play ball then you dont get the money – if you dont get more money – then you are out – ie you have to leave and devalue as you cant pay your bills. This may happen to Greece – the infrastrucure fund may yet save them otherwise its goodnight from herself (Ang).’
Yes, the ECB turns off the taps, but that does not mean you are out of the eurozone, it means your banks are bust, something they have been for ages. But again, I ask, how would you legislate to kick Greece, or any country for that matter, out of the eurozone and also the EU as one goes with the other? Not even Syriza wants to leave the euro or the EU which means there is not a Greek party wanting to leave of its own accord, so, how do you kick it out of the euro? It simply means you cannot pay your bills and you are that guy in the bar at the end of the night who takes way too long to leave or decides to sleep under a table.
I appreciate that you are saying that they (Brussels) would find a way, but I think it needs to be understood that from a legal point, there would need to be changes to the existing treaties in order to change the rules so as to kick Greece or any one else out and can you see anyone wanting a new treaty now? What do you think the Brits would ask for in return? What about the Czechs? Or even the Hungarians? I think people need to really think that one through as it is not as easy as giving someone the old heave ho.
Yes, Grizzly really didn’t help himself did he? Though, it is galling to see others not show any contrition for their failed policies, whether in government (FF) or outside but largely espousing that which the govt of the day was enacting, but looking a little tweak here or there (FG and the pink rag the blue shirts wear).
‘“About 50% of Economics (like psychology and advertising) is a complete waste of time – the problem is nobody knows which 50 percent”’
Ah, come on now Sammy, you lead me to believe that you were about to go toe to toe with one of my heroes, for shame! I was all gearing up to defend his honour and all.
I hope we see some kind of stimulus and soon, otherwise more inertia and the fracturing of democracy are my predictions. People lose interest in conventional politics when the people in charge are unable to effect change in ways they want, which all to often leads to other more drastic and usually nasty methods being taken up. Here’s hoping that doesn’t occur.
On a final note, Simon is on to something I largely agree with; forget about quantitative easing and how about you just give the electorate this money to spend, or is that a bit too gauche for our leaders?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/aug/28/heathrow-third-runway-big-willy-politics
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Just a thought lads (On borrowed PC) Excellent level of debate here, Slugger could learn a few tricks in my opinion. Considered response to follow along with a more detailed post on the economy North and South, FC, I’ll be careful as I suspect your qualifications may outstrip mine 🙂
Meanwhile Unionism continues on its Nihilistic path as usual. I am openmouthed at them. I don’t know where to even start to be honest.
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Thanks BD, it has and is quite enjoyable to have a decent debate. My qualifications are surprisingly spartan btw, I just like to read up on it quite a bit. If I could recommend a few reads, Krugman every Monday and Friday in the NYT, Niall Ferguson’s ‘The Ascent of Money’,Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s ‘The Black Swan’ and finally, Ben Graham’s ‘Security Analysis’, the last is by Buffet’s lecturer at Colombia
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bd,
“Meanwhile Unionism continues on its Nihilistic path as usual. I am openmouthed at them. I don’t know where to even start to be honest.”
in public relations terms this will be even worse for Unionism than Drumcree.
About the only postive thing that can be said for Unionists is that is not as bad as Holy Cross.
and I have to say there was a very reasoanble artice in the Newletter(on-line) – so there may be some hope yet.
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fc,
re. Exiting Europe.
It cannot be possible to stay in the Euro if you have no money to pay your bills – its not that Greece will be kicked out but that if europe does not provide the readies, Greece will HAVE to leave – it would be simply impossible for them to stay without a supply of cash, cant pay the teahers, doctors etc.
Will read article amarach – have stuff to do.
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Sammmy,
It would still have some money whether from taxes gained on a day to day basis, what it would do is merely resist in paying the bond holders and use this to pay its bills instead. Money can be found by some way or another and Greece leaving the EU (that’s what we’re talking about when we talk of them leaving the euro btw) is such pie in the sky, such a monumentous decision that not only would it be bad for Greece it would be the single worst fate to befall Europe since the Iron Curtain and the whole European project. Can you imagine the signal it would send out? ‘If the going gets tough we will bail out on you’. The EU would cease to be because if you have showed to the outside world you are willing to bail on one country, however insignificant it is in the grand scheme of the project, you will bail on any other. It would only be a matter of time before someone else has to leave, like Italy or Spain and then the EU is just some rump in northern Europe with everyone pissed off completely, either side of the divide.
Greece will do nearly anything to stay in, whether it is taking bi-lateral loans of Russia (see Cyprus. A whole lot of Russian off shore stuff goes through that country, it’s like a Russian Isle of Man) or China or some dodgy Central Asian countries to stay in.
In fact, IF I were the new Greek government I would make a very hasty point of balancing the books right now at any cost, default on your debts and then, in this instance, you don’t actually need to go to the markets for funding as your outgoings have met your incomings. You’re still in the euro, though Mario Draghi and the bankers in Frankfurt would be, for want of better wording, mildly annoyed with you, but with little in his repertoire to stop you.
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Sammy,
It’s like a collective death wish. I cannot believe the sheer stupidity but like all tragedies it has it’s comic elements. The exchange of e-mails between Mike Nesbitt and Ken McG should be required reading for all Politics students. Wonder how they got out? And as for the DUP’s North Belfast wing, I’m lost for words. Mind you, so is Nelson by the look of things.
Truly an example of poor poor leadership, confused thinking and an ugly sectarian underbelly.
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I hope I’m not (or maybe I am?) reading too much into Dodds in North Belfast, but does it not strike you as coincidental that he ratchets up the rhetoric, plays a distinctly Orange Card shortly after we see that the proposed boundary changes that would have secured his seat are no longer going to go ahead? It’s never too early to get the vote riled especially when a lot of people are not confident that this parliament in Westminster will see out a full term.
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FC,
In my opinion you are reading it 100% accurately. Unionist politicians, in time of percieved threat, always play the Orange card. (see my thoughts in previous blog).
Despite the plethora of fringe/ continuity/ alternative/ trad Unionist splinter groups they invariably try to outflank each other to the Right. It’s a race to the lowest common denominator. Instead of projecting a confident forward looking political vision they engender fear and self doubt in their electorate.
The result is to alienate their middle class and left leaning voters, hence the increased paranoia and declining political power. Its a self fulfilling thing in my opinion
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BD, this is in keeping with my thoughts on the Alliance party (please hold your disbelief for a moment) and unionist voting patterns as noted on FJH’s page (http://fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com/2012/08/14/looking-at-other-websites/#comments).
When they (unionist electorate) feel threatened they will not turn to a political ‘luxury’ such as the Alliance but will batten down the hatches and hope to god that they can hold on to the seat. Dodds is going through the time tested play book, one that is not as effective as yesteryear.
I’ll leave you all to it, interview tomorrow.
Oiche mhaith
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http://www.judecollinsjournalist.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/charlie-it-looks-like-you-were-right.html
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fc,
I dont agree – without IMF-EU money Greece is fecked, if the Ruskies or someone else coughs up then that is a different story.
I dont think Germany wants shot of the Greeks but if is a choice of damaging the Euro as a whole or keeping Greece in – there is only one choice – post Greek exit the value of the Euro would proably rise.
The Eurozone can afford to lose the tiddlers Greece, Ireland and Portugal witohut damaging itelf that much.
Shit just happens sometimes.
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Sammy,
Do tell, under what treaty or power would this exit happen? I ask, not because I cannot see it happening (common sense is not that common after all), but I ask because I do not think people understand how big a deal, how monumentous this would be if it were to happen.
‘The Eurozone can afford to lose the tiddlers Greece, Ireland and Portugal witohut damaging itelf that much.’
I would challenge that, especially in light of what is happening in the markets. Let us have a thought exercise for a moment folks (by the way, all are welcome to comment or add their opinions on this one); say I work for a company that buys bonds. If I see that countries in the eurozone can be kicked out, even those that do not pose an existential financial threat to the EU and that the EU will not stand behind even the smaller members, why on earth would I decide to purchase bonds from any of the larger members (Italy)? Would a self-fulfilling prophecy start to happen?
Since 2008 we have had 19 ’emergency EU summits’ and I shall wager that we may see a few more before we see any movement on this whole issue. The bond markets are usually incredibly dull and love dealing in certainty. At present we do not have certainty. We have mixed messages coming from Frankfurt, Berlin and Paris as to whether they will or will not stand behind other eurozone members and as we see on a daily basis, coupon yields go up and down. When Draghi says he will buy Spanish and Italian bonds, their yields go down. When a German pol opens his mouth, they go right back up.
‘I dont agree – without IMF-EU money Greece is fecked’ – Greece is fecked already, things cannot get much worse for them. But I do think it would be beneficial for them to declare bankruptcy and stay in the eurozone as there is a precedent for this, 19th century USA. A number of states (Florida is the one that springs to mind) defaulted on its state debt but are still in the Union. Greece could stay in the eurozone even if others wanted to kick it out as their is no power to kick it out unless it decides to leave. It could say, ‘we stay and ruin this all for you until you assist us’. To be honest, this is kind of what it is doing at the moment, right?
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fc,
“To be honest, this is kind of what it is doing at the moment, right?”
That is becuase the money has not run out.
It is my contention that if Greece gets no more moneyfrom the EU-IMF they will have no choice but to leave the EuroZone and return to the Drachma, you dont need a treaty to leave.
That seems fairly clear and simple to me.
re. bonds.
As I understand it, large amounts of Greek bonds have already been defaulted on.
ps I think one of the subtexts to the debate on the referendum was that a Greek exit would mean more money for us.
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Money has run out, or the state debt is too large to service? There is money in Greece, it’s not like Iraq pre it’s invasion (not that I am contending that you are alluding to this, merely trying to put some kind of perspective on the whole matter).
I think your contention is a valid one, however, I would also contend that they could stay in the eurozone, it wouldnt be pretty and it may cause a lot of damage, but it could be done. I contend that they could default, in full, and still be in the eurozone. That whilst this is not ideal, and would mean all hell breaking loose, it is still something they could do. It’s a proper nuclear option for them. They still bring in taxes, the state still functions, but they clear their external debt and work with what they have. Further, and I shall repeat, they cannot be kicked out of someone else’s volition (Germany, Finland, the Netherlands), as their is no mechanism t do it. The EU is very bureaucratic and to try something like that will have swarms of lawyers all over it. Nor would it be clean and easy, hence why I really don’t see them leaving the eurozone.
If they decide to leave of their own volition, yes, it can be done, but it means them leaving the EU, full stop. So, I ask you, can you see Greece leaving the EU? Leaving the euro, they might vote for that, but the EU? I cannot for the life of me see that.
Re bonds, yes, a fair chunk was done away with by way of bond holders taking a voluntary haircut, but it still stands at a massive percentage of GDP and with their economy in free fall they are unable to service it. Which brings me to the crux of the problem, it’s not the size of your debt, it’s your ability to service it. The Greeks cannot do it, the Italians can barely do it, whilst the Japanese with their astronomical amount (is it more than 200% at the moment? I think so) can do due to the nature of the liabilities (bonds with particularly long redemption periods) ownership of the liabilities (largely their own citizens) and the performance of their respective economies.
Re the pretext for the referendum, I never heard that though it’s quite interesting to say the least. Would you know who was saying this or where I could find it, would like to see their logic on this or thinking.
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FC,
This article is technical but may be of interest to you
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1024185.shtml
It focuses on the value of fund services in Ireland.
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BD, thanks for the previous. I believe the whole tax arrangement is otherwise known as a Double Irish with a Dutch filling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Irish_arrangement)
This was something I was trying to allude to previously re: will NI really do better by cutting it’s corporate tax rate?
To give myself away slightly, I have worked in legal/finance in two off shore jurisdictions, the Channel Islands and an island in the Caribbean (I can’t give this away as, not wishing to sound paranoid but not too many do what I do, honest). I have always found the whole corporate tax argument/debate very interesting as I am intrigued to hear what people think may actually happen in Belfast.
Please correct me if I am wrong but it would appear that people expect that big, massive multi-nats would all of a sudden rock up to NI as opposed to ROI. To be honest, I think NI would become a registered office jurisdiction. If we use the example of the one in the Caribbean countries I worked in, it was a stack them high, sell them cheap environment. It was pure awful and relied on a massive turnover. The Channel Islands relied on ‘adding value’ to its work. What Belfast would become, who knows?
The point I’m making is that by lowering corporation tax may mean that NI becomes another registration centre, which is great news for the ‘Big 4’ accountancy practices, there company secretarial practices make a shed load from more companies re-registering here, but it gives little help here re massive employment. It is also massively addictive as if you do raise your tax then they all move and you lose some money. In both places I lived there was no other massive employers apart from tourism which, now that I think of it, is kind of like NI in all fairness.
I know the above is a slight tangent BD et al, but I have seen way worse re tax dodging, financial ‘dopiing’. Look up ‘The Island Handshake’ in Guernsey, it allows many a company, including a 5 star hotel in NI to pay 2% corporation tax pa.
The Donkeys (people from Guernsey) make money from service fees, which is where NI would make its money from if it had charge of its corporation tax, hence why yon man from Deloitte was in the Bele Tele calling all for corporation tax powers going to Stormont (http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/business-news/top-expert-warns-northern-ireland-economy-is-facing-meltdown-16195332.html)
No, my problem with NI (which I love btw, great fun) is that it does not have the experience of dealing with the work it purports to want. From my own experience and in my own, humble, opinion, it should not focus on financial services whether it is doing back office stuff or whatever. No, and I am being completely and brutally honest, I think that it should definitely put more money into something you shall all roll your eyes at: the Arts.
Belfast, NI in particular, is insanely good at the ARTS. My brother was able to bring over from London 3 Italians who rebooked flights to stay here for another 2 days to see what we had on in Belfast the weekend past including Mela (http://2012.belfastmela.org.uk/home), Household (http://www.householdbelfast.co.uk/) or the Belfast City Blues Festival (http://www.gotobelfast.com/whats-on/event/belfast-city-blues-festival-2012-sunday) all on on the same weekend. It is so much more enjoyable and interesting than Dublin to be honest. Though, I expect nothing that radical from Stormont regarding the arts, as it is too ‘arty farty’, though you are talking about a highly productive sector (£1 spent = £4 return bare min) and it is populated with people who are used to doing what is needed with a small budget. Have I mentioned that they know the value of something as opposed to the price of everything? Nope, but it is full of hippie, hipster, try hards we all look at and immediately disdain.
This is no silver bullet to NI’s financial woes, but, IMHO, Belfast has an advantage over other places on this and needs to really exploit it.
BTW, apologies for the previous unfinished post, damn laptop!
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fc,
I dont think they can stay in if they dont have the money from the EU-IMF – even if they default – as they run a deficit, if they could then one of the political parties might have suggested it by now?
re. “So, I ask you, can you see Greece leaving the EU? Leaving the euro, they might vote for that, but the EU? I cannot for the life of me see that.”
Yes, if they dont play ball(German rules).
re. Referendum – I said subtext – nobody was actually saying that – just a bit too much of good boy Ireland bad boy Greece bad in the debates.
p.s .Perhaps one of us needs to call in some backing for our position, as I’m just repeating myself
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They would run a deficit Sammy, but it would mean laying off a load of people, but lets focus on the whole (perhaps) Greek exit:
If I may get to the crux of my point. Aside from Greece (maybe) wanting to leave the euro, for them to do that it would mean leaving the EU, period. This is something that all polls have shown is not a runner there. They want to have their cake and eat it. My apologies, but this is why I am being cantankerous about Greece’s exit. If they (the citizens of Greece) do not want to leave the EU then how do you kick them out of the euro without a change of the treaties in place? It’s the whole immovable object meets and unstoppable force thing.
It is late, but I will find tomorrow or over the weekend the legislation (certain its the last one, damn constitutional law, boring as sin) (also, if you will permit me; either I have a job here in Dublin or in Sydney, Aus, so as you can imagine I have a bit of moving on the go at the moment, hence the delay).
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I believe all you need is in the below Sammy re my thinking and the legislation
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15575751
If I may make an aside,, I used to live in London with a Russian girl, someone from Novosibirsk which I had a blast with when I visited her two years ago. She reminded me of the stories of hyper-inflation she and her family faced in the early to mid 90s. I am genuinely worried that Greeks would face this also if they left the euro, and I am convinced that they are wary of facing, a scenario much like the Russians in the 90s or the Germans in the Weimar Republic. Thoughts anyone?
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fc,
“The problem is, that it may well be the sensible (in the social democratic) sense to threaten the Europeans with cant-pay-wont-pay and be prepared to start agian outside the Euro if the EU wont play ball.
That was my original assertion on exiting the Euro, the legislation is, as I mentioned above a red herring – you dont need legislation to get rid of countries ‘behaving badly’ when you can just cut off their money supply.
The Greeks dont appear to have the appetite for as much austerity as is required by their Bank Managers – my initial point was that we Irish may also lose our appetite and that point we (perhaps the Greeks will have left by then) will have to tell Ang to cough up or we are out.
We dont know which way the Greeks will jump – but jump out they may – and it is not at all clear (depends who you listen to) whether that is good or bad for them or for the rest of us left in.
Old Chestnut time: Economics is 50% rubbish etc .
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‘you dont need legislation to get rid of countries ‘behaving badly’ when you can just cut off their money supply.’ – eh, you do. You CAN cut off the flow of cash, yes. But if you want to kick someone out you have to have some kind of legal mechanism, that point’s not even up for discussion. Will we get to this stage, who knows?
Is it a good idea for Greece or Ireland to leave the euro? Probably in the long run but in the short run expect flight of capital (even more should I say) and capital controls to be put in place too, everything to be devalued from 100% to 33% or thereabouts.
‘Old Chestnut time: Economics is 50% rubbish etc .’ – that depends on who you listen to of course. I prefer contrarians myself.
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Phase 2 of the census is being published on 19th September at 9.30am.
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Thanks Enda !!!! 🙂
Booking the day off work 1st thing in the morning, bet you doing the same!
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Oh dear- as if Nelson and Deputy Dodsy didnt have enough on their plate – and just 2 weeks before the big parade.
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Sammy,
Latest from Westminster is that Clegg is def NOT backing Lords reform, hence boundary changes are up the swanee as well…… The kettle is simmering away nicely
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We can thank Deputy Dodsy for playing a part in his own (potential) downfall by voting against LibDems Lords reform – the libs did warn the Tories of the consequences beforehand.
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Sorry, made a pigs you know what of my last post, You know what I meant !
Got a bit excited
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Pingback: What’s happening within Unionism? « "We in coming days may be"
The reason why Unionists move to a more Unionist town once their own becomes more nationalist is obvious. They feel safer and suffer less intimidation from republican youths.
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