2031 Census and the Border Poll

Tags

History, ireland, news, politics, population

By Faha

Although we are only in the year 2024, another Northern Ireland Census is only 7 years from now, in 2031. I will attempt to estimate the results of the 2031 census and how they will impact a future Border Poll.

Now we all know it is difficult to predict the future, but there is underlying census data from the 2021 census that will extrapolate to 2031.

The results of the 2031 census will be determined by 4 main factors between the years 2021 and 2031.

1 Births

2 Deaths

3 Net emigration

4 Net immigration.

Looking at these four areas…..

1 Births

Between 2011 and 2021 yearly births averaged 23,700. However, there was a marked decline over the decade with yearly averages over 25,000 between 2011 to 2013 and only 20,800 in 2020. Births are only averaging 21,000 per year since the 2021 census and this trend is unlikely to reverse. With the current birth rate of 21,000 per year, there will be 210,000 people added to the population of Northern Ireland between 2021 and 2031.

2 Deaths

Deaths averaged 15,500 per year between 2011 and 2021. In the previous 3 years death have averaged 17,300 per year. The higher rate beginning in 2020 was due to excess deaths from COVID-19. However, there were 17,254 deaths in 2023 when there were few COVID deaths and the 2024 rate is on track for more than 17,000. The higher death rate is mainly due to the ageing of the population. There will be 170,000 deaths between 2021 and 2031.

3 Net emigration

Net emigration of the native population of Northern Ireland is approximately 5,000 per year. The is also a net inward migration of 1,000 yearly from the Republic of Ireland. There will be a net loss of 40,000 people between 2021 and 2031 due to net emigration.

4 Net immigration

NiNo registrations show a net yearly increase of 13,000 per year (excluding Republic of Ireland). There was an exodus of some immigrants during the COVID pandemic and this makes it difficult to predict the extent of net immigration. There were 100,000 EU nationals that had registered for the EU settlement scheme by 2020 but only 70,000 EU nationals were recorded in the 2021 Census. This indicates that 30,000 left Northern Ireland between 2020 and 2021. It is not clear how many of those have returned. Historically, in the 20 years prior to the 2021 census approximately half (net) of immigrants to Northern Ireland have remained in Northern Ireland. If current immigration trends continue then there would be a net addition of 70,000 immigrants to Northern Ireland with perhaps an additional 10,000 EU nationals returning to Northern Ireland.
Overall, the main changes in demographics have changed significantly between 2011 to 2021 and 2021 to 2031. Between 2011 and 2021 there was net addition of 82,000 to the population of Northern Ireland accounting for only births and deaths. With a net emigration of 40,000 there was still a net increase in the native population of 42,000.
With the current birth and death rates there will be no net increase in the Northern Ireland native population between 2021 and 2031. 210,000 births and over 170,000 deaths and a net emigration of 40,000 equals no growth. The only increase in Northern Ireland population will come from net immigration. I estimate that the Northern Ireland population will be somewhere between 1,950,000 and 2,000,000. The higher number would occur if immigration increases.
I will now delve into the demographic changes between 2021 and 2031. From the 2021 census we already know the religious composition of the youngest age cohort (age 0 to 4) and this composition is likely to remain the same between 2021 and 2031. We also know that most deaths are in the oldest age cohorts and we also know the religious composition of the oldest age groups. Emigration is likely to be stable so the only major unknown is immigration.
I will concentrate firstly on the Protestant population. The census definition is Protestant and Other Christian and there are 2 separate categories. There are those who designate that their religion is Protestant and there is a 2nd group that includes those who were raised Protestant also. I will mainly refer to this 2nd larger group. I will also concentrate on the native Protestant population and exclude those who are foreign nationals or who are Christian but raised Catholic.
If you look at the historical census years, the Protestant population was approximately 880,000 in the 1961 census (61.5% of the total population). In the 2001 census the Protestant population was 890,000 (895,000 including British military in Northern Ireland), 53% of the total population. In the 2011 census the Protestant population was 875,000. However, in 2011 the nature of that population had changed. With the opening of immigration from the EU in 2003 and increased immigration from other countries approximately 15,000 were foreign nationals and their children. Another 5,000 were British military and other mixed religion. So, the native Protestant population was only 855,000 (47% of the total population), a decline of 35,000 from 2001.

Most of that decline was due to emigration. In 2021, the Protestant population was 827,000. If you reread my article from June 2023, you will see that in the 2021 census there were approximately 35,000 who were foreign nationals and their children (many Eastern Orthodox) and another 10,000 who were generic Christian but raised Catholic. The native Protestant population was 780,000 (41.5% of the total population), a decline of 75,000 from 2011. Approximately 35,000 of the decline was due to deaths exceeding births with another estimated 25,000 decline due to emigration. It is difficult to explain the remaining 15,000 decline. Some may be due to adults who as children in 2011 were recorded as Protestant by their parents, but as adults they recorded None (not raised in any religion) since they did not recall any affiliation with a religion as a child. It is also possible that emigration was higher than estimated.
What will the Protestant total be in 2031 ? Since we know deaths are averaging over 17,000 per year and 60% of the population in the older age cohorts are Protestant, we know that there will be over 100,000 deaths from the Protestant population. Births are averaging only 21,000 per year and the percentage of native Protestants in the youngest age cohorts (0 to 1) was only ~27%, then there would be only ~56,000 Protestant children born between 2021 and 2031. That would be a net excess of deaths over births of approximately 45,000. If historical emigration continues then the Protestant population would decline an additional 25,000. The totals are 70,000 so the native Protestant population would decline to 710,000 in 2031 from 780,000 in 2021. Since there will likely be small numbers of young adults that do not recall being raised in a Protestant religion it is likely that the actual number may be as low as 700,000. Based on the 2021 census the number of actual native Protestants would be approximately 610,000 with another 90,000 None (raised Protestant). If the Northern Ireland population in 2031 is 1,950,000 (an increase entirely due to foreign national immigration) then the Protestant population of 700,000 would be 36% of the total population. Including only those with a current Protestant religion, the percentage would be 31%. These percentages would be lower if the total population is as high as 2 million.
There will also be changes in the Catholic population, but these will not be as dramatic. The Catholic population was approximately 540,000 in the 1961 census. In the 2021 census the Catholic population (including None but raised Catholic) was 870,000. This included 65,000 None (but raised Catholic). It did not include approximately 10,000 generic Christian (but raised Catholic) and the School Census also indicated an undercount of Catholics of 5,000+. The total Catholic background population was approximately 885,000.
Based on the demographics of the elderly population, approximately 6,300 of the greater than 17,000 yearly deaths would be Catholic. Of the 21,000 yearly births approximately 10,300 would be Catholic. The excess of births over deaths would be 4,000 yearly for a 10 year increase of 40,000. However, there would be a net loss of 10,000 due to net migration (20,000 from Northern Ireland natives minus 10,000 net immigration from the Republic of Ireland). The total increase from 2021 to 2031 would be 30,000 for a total of 915,000. It is not clear how many immigrants would be Catholic but probably no more than 15,000 of 60,000 immigrants. Thus, the estimated Catholic total for 2031 would be 930,000, 47.5% of the population.

There will be a large increase in the native None (not raised in any religion) between 2021 and 2031. This is because the None group are a significant percentage of new births (20%) and very few among the yearly deaths. The native None group will be almost 200,000 or 10% of the total population.
The remaining 6.5% of the population will consist of non Catholic foreign nationals and their children who are non-Christian, non Catholic Christian or None (not raised in a religion).
Based on current birth and death rates, historical emigration, and estimates of immigration, the Northern Ireland population will be somewhere in the range of 1,950,000 to 2 million in the 2031 census.

The approximate Religion background of that population will be:
Catholic (including None and Christian raised Catholic) 47.5%
Protestant (including None raised Protestant) 36.0%
None (native not raised in any religion) 10%
Foreign national and children 6.5%
(None, Non Christian, non Catholic Christian)

How is all of this relevant to a Border Poll ?
The results of a Border Poll in 2031 will be determined by the voting preferences based on the demographics in 2031. Assuming a voting age of 16 (the same as the Scotland Independence Referendum) the voting age population will differ among the 4 groups. The None group has a very young age profile and the Protestant group has the oldest age profile. Foreign nationals will be less likely to vote. I estimate the electorate for a Border Poll in 2031 to be:
Catholic 48%
Protestant 38%
None 8%
Foreign National (non Catholic) 6%

The recent LucidTalk poll showed preferences for an Eventual United Ireland versus staying in the UK. The results by Religion were:
Catholic Protestant Other/None
Eventual United Ireland 93% 13% 51 %
Remain in UK 2 % 82% 36%
Undecided 4% 5% 13%
For the 48% of the electorate that will be Catholic the results are:
44.5% for United Ireland
1% Remain in UK
For the 38% of the electorate that will be Protestant the results are:
5% for a United Ireland
31% Remain in UK
For the 8% of the electorate that will be None the results are:
4% for a United Ireland
3% Remain in the UK
For the 6% of the electorate that will be Foreign nationals (non Catholic) the estimated results are:
5% for a United Ireland
1% Remain in the UK
The overall results would be:
United Ireland 58.5%
Remain in UK 36%
Undecided 5.5%

With these percentages, it is clear that pro United Ireland political parties should be planning now for a Border Poll. Most of the support for Remaining in the UK is from the Protestant electorate. That electorate is declining at a rapid rate due to deaths greatly exceeding births and significant emigration.

2024 Border Poll & the Brexit effect

Tags

brexit, History, ireland, northern-ireland, politics

By Faha

LucidTalk conducted a poll in February 2024. Topics covered included party preference in an Assembly election, Brexit support and support for a United Ireland in a Border Poll. I will cover the results for a Border Poll and Brexit.

Potential voters were asked the question:

“If another UK EU Referendum took place today (equivalent to the 2016 UK EU Referendum) what way would you vote?”

Overall results were:

Rejoin the EU 62%

Stay out of the EU 35%

Undecided 3%

The actual vote in 2016 was 56% Remain in the EU and 44% Leave the EU.

There has been a marked decline in those who prefer Brexit, from 44% in the 2016 Referendum to 35% in 2024. There has been some churning among the 2 groups with 6% of Remain voters in 2016 now favouring staying out of the EU and 20% of leave voters now favouring rejoining the EU.

The results differ markedly by Constitutional Voting Block:

Nationalist/Republican – Neutral – Unionist

Rejoin the EU 94% 82% 23%

Stay out of EU 5% 17% 71%

Few unionist voters wish to rejoin the EU while nationalist/republican and Neutral parties voters overwhelmingly wish to rejoin the EU.

The breakdown by Religion is:

Catholic – Protestant – Other/None

Rejoin the EU 93% 33% 69%

Stay out of EU 6% 62% 23%

Catholics overwhelmingly wish to rejoin the EU. However, 33% of Protestants also wish to rejoin the EU. That 33% has implications for a Border Poll since the only likely path for Northern Ireland to rejoin the EU is through a Border Poll where the majority favour a United Ireland.

There were 2 questions on a Border Poll. The first question was:

If there were a referendum (Border Poll) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week- How would you vote?

The overall weighted results were:

For Northern Ireland to Remain part of the United Kingdom

49.3%

For Northern Ireland to Leave the United Kingdom and become part of a United Ireland:

39.3%

Undecided:

11.4%

The results differ markedly by Constitutional Voting Block:

Nationalist/Republican – Neutral – Unionist

Remain UK 4% 37% 96%

United Ireland 87% 26% 2%

Undecided 9% 36% 2%

No surprises here although the Neutral block has a high percentage of Undecided at 36%.

The breakdown by Religion is:

Catholic – Protestant – Other/None

Remain UK 8% 87% 45%

United Ireland 78% 5% 34%

Undecided 14% 8% 21%

What is significant is that 5% of Protestants would vote for a United Ireland and 8% are Undecided. These would be mainly Alliance, Green and SDLP voters.

There was a poll 20 to 25 years ago that asked a unique question about a United Ireland that was directed at Protestant voters and the results were:

United Ireland 2%

United Ireland acceptable 13%

United Ireland tolerable 25%

United Ireland unacceptable 60%

Even in that era 15% of Protestants were amenable to a United Ireland and this does not appear to have changed over the years.

The 2nd Border Poll question was NI-Border Aspiration-Do you have an aspiration or do you think there should be a United Ireland in 1 to 10 years or 11 to 20 years (or beyond) ?

The overall results are:

Eventual United Ireland 51.2 %

Remain in UK 43.6%

Undecided 5.2%

The results differ markedly by Constitutional Voting Block:

Nationalist/Republican – Neutral – Unionist

Eventual United Ireland 98% 62% 4%

Remain in UK 0% 19% 94%

Undecided 2% 19% 2%

There are several findings I wish to emphasize. If a Border Poll vote were held this week there are 13% of Nationalist/Republican voters who would vote to Remain in the UK or are Undecided. However, 11% of that 13% have an aspiration for an Eventual United Ireland and 0% wish to Remain in the UK. For those who are Neutral (mainly Alliance and Green voters) only 26% would currently vote for a United Ireland and 36% are Undecided. However, 62% of Neutral voters have an aspiration for an Eventual United Ireland. So essentially all the current Undecided aspire to an Eventual United Ireland.

The breakdown by Religion is:

Catholic – Protestant – Other/None

Eventual United Ireland 93% 13% 51 %

Remain in UK 2 % 82% 36%

Undecided 4% 5% 13%

Even though 22% of Catholics would vote to Remain in the UK or are Undecided if a vote were held this week, 16% of that group aspire to an Eventual United Ireland. In the Other/None group most of the Undecided aspire to an eventual united Ireland. In the None/Other group 45% vote to remain in the UK if a vote were held this week but this declines to 36% in the future indicating that some of these voters aspire to an Eventual United Ireland.

The results of this poll confirm that support for a future United Ireland is significantly higher than current support for a United Ireland. Why is this? The main reason is that voting for a United Ireland this week has many unknowns. There are currently no detailed plans on what a United Ireland would entail and how Northern Ireland would be integrated into a United Ireland. This is an issue that SF and the SDLP need to address as soon as possible. The main issues are pension costs and health care costs. Pensions for the elderly are higher in the Republic of Ireland than Northern Ireland and SF and the SDLP need to propose that the Northern Ireland rate would increase to that of the Republic of Ireland. The current problems with the NHS need to be confronted and how health care would integrate with the system in the Republic of Ireland explored and explained.

I will do a follow up analysis of a future Northern Ireland Border Poll based on the demographics in the future 2031 census, which is only 7 years from now.

Treveleyan’s Corn

Charles Treveleyan was a senior English civil servant in the administration of the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland in Dublin Castle during the 1850’s. Trevelyan famously said, about “an Gorta Mor” (The great hunger) that it was, “the judgement of God sent as a calamity to teach the Irish a lesson”.

It wasn’t. It was an act of deliberate genocide, depopulation and dispossesion of an entire people.

The population of this island declined by half in a period of 5 years. Ireland was producing enough food to supply more than five times it’s population.

The truth is that the Irish people had been dispossesed of their land and were eating what little they could grow on the scraps they had left while absentee landlords grew fat on their exports of lamb, beef, wheat and barley on the land they had seized.

The Irish people lived on Potatoes. An imported crop with which they had no choice but to subside upon.

This was very close to the words of Oliver Cromwell when he massacred many thousands in Drogheda during his particular invasion of Ireland.

Cromwells quote was that it was “the righteous judgement of God upon the barberous wretches”

Charming.

So, although the above is historical, why is it still relevant today?

The answer is simply because there are some who, to this day, still hold such views.

I think many people here will recall Suella Braverman’s reference to starving the Irish people.

I certainly will never forgive or forget it.

I’m genuinely amazed that British people are accepting the right wing rhetoric that purports to speak for them. I’d personally be astounded if such talk pretended to speak on my behalf. Where are their true voices? Is everyone terrified in the south east of England of the Daily Mail and the Telegraph opinion writers?

Perhaps I’m Naive. Perhaps it’s a good thing that I’m an Irishman. Perhaps disagreeing with idiocy isn’t any harm, perhaps being in a republic is a massive relief, ye know, we’re all equal and if anything is to change, we all get to vote on it, as equals, including our head of state, mad I know.

The title of this post referred to a particularly unpleasant individual linked here. I play and sing traditional Irish songs, this one refers to him.

A Tale of Two Censuses

By Faha

Northern Ireland 2021 Census and the School Census 2021

More detailed 2021 census data was released last week, including data on Religion and Religion Brought Up In. There was also a School Census in 2021 that was conducted 6 months after the 2021 census. It also

contained detailed information on Religion. The School Census for 2021 recorded religion by Protestant and Catholic but combined None, Other and Other Christian in one category. The last time the None, Other and Other Christian were listed separately was in the 2017-20818 School Census. The Other and Other Christian groups have been slowly increasing yearly so it is possible to extrapolate from the 2017 data to 2021.

The 2021 School Census includes all Primary, Secondary and Special schools. The results would be:

Catholic                                                    167,091

Protestant                                                103,517 

Other Christian                                         14,000  

(Total Protestant & Other Christian       117,517)

Other                                                           5,000

None                                                           41,300    

Total All Religions                                    330,908           

In comparing the 2021 School Census to the 2021 Census for Northern Ireland I included the age bands 5-9, 10-14 and some from the age band 15-19 to bring the total to equal that recorded in the School Census.

The results for the 2021 Census Religion or Religion Brought Up In are:

Catholic                                                     161,870

Protestant & Other Christian                  114,493

Other                                                            5,234

None                                                          49,311

Total                                                        330,908

In comparing the School Census to the Northern Ireland census the School Census records 3,000 more Protestants and 5,200 more Catholics. There are also 8,000 fewer in the None category in the School Census.

In the previous Northern Ireland Census there were significant undercounts of the Catholic population. In the 2001 Census the undercount was approximately 5,000 to 6,000 . This estimate was obtained by comparing the 2001 Census and the 2001 School Census.

In the 2011 Census the undercount was as high as 20,000 and that estimate was also obtained by comparing the 2011 Census with the School Census. In the 2011 Census there were 160,000 people who did not complete census forms and more than  70,000 more who did not answer the Religion question. With no religion data on over 230,000 people the School Census was much more accurate since it had almost 100% coverage.

How was the 2021 Census different ?

The 2021 Census was much more complete compared to 2011. There were only an estimated 58,700 people who did not complete census forms, 100,000 fewer than 2011. Those who did not answer the religion question fully were only 27,400. Those who did fully answer the question included:

Those who did not complete the question

Those who checked None for Religion but did not answer Religion Brought Up In

Those who indicated they had a Religion but did not specify the Religion.

The Census Office modelled those 27,400 based on other identifying answers and assigned a probability Religion.

For the estimated 58,700 who did not complete a Census form, they were also assigned a probable Religion. Overall, the 86,100 for whom no Religion data was available, 14,100 (16.4%) were assigned to No Religion. If these 86,100 had been assigned the same percentage of None as those who completed the Census (9.0%), then there would have been another 6,000 who would have been assigned to a Catholic or Protestant Religion.

There does not appear to be an undercount of the Catholic population in 2021 in the same sense as 2011 and 2001. The School Census is showing an undercount of both the Catholic and Protestant population, and it is in proportion to their relative size in the overall count.

This undercount can only be partly attributed to the modelling done by the Census Office. If there are 6,000 additional people who have a religion only 1,000 would be school age children if the modelling used only 9% for None in the group with no religion data. It is likely that most of the additional Catholics and Protestants in the School Census are due to parents choosing this designation for the School Census but who choose None in the Northern Ireland Census.

After taking into account the additional 5,200 Catholics in the School Census, the Northern Ireland population appears to have had a 46.5% Catholic background at the time of the Northern Ireland Census. The official percentage was 45.7%.

After excluding British military and their dependents from the census this would increase to 45.8%. Adding in the extra 5,200 in the School Census would increase this to 46.07%. In my analysis from earlier this month I noted that there were 27,432 non-denominational Christians in the 2021 Census that were not present in the 2011 Census. We do not know their designation in 2011 but I estimated that 1/3 are former Catholics who identify as Christian (rather than None) and the other 2/3 are Protestant . That would bring the Catholic percentage to 46.5%.

2021 NI Census, the Religion Data

By Faha

The census office has just released further data on the 2021 census.

This included Religion by broad Age bands, Country of Birth Detailed, Religion and Religion Brought Up In Detailed and also Religious Denomination Detailed.

I will analyze the Religion data in more detail to give a more accurate presentation of the entire population of Northern Ireland.

The original 2021 census release showed the following data for Religion or Religion Brought Up In.

Catholic            869,749              45.7%

Protestant        827,541              43.48%

None                 177,361                9.32%

Other                  28,516                1.50%

The data released in the previous week has data by broad age bands and the results were:

 Age                        0-14             15-39           40-64          65+    

Catholic              48.69%          48.13%        45.72%      37.89%

Protestant          32.50%          37.60%        47.33%      59.21%

None                   17.15%           12.27%        5.62%        2.18%       

Other                     1.66%             2.00%        1.33%        0.72%

There is a marked variation in those with a Protestant background by age with almost 60% in the over 65 age group but only 32.5% in those under age 15. The Catholic population varies little by age but there is a significant drop in those over age 65.

I estimate that age 60 is the cutoff where the Protestant population exceeds the Catholic population.

These numbers will have profound impacts on the future of Northern Ireland politics and any Border Poll. The age 65+,   60% Protestant population will be gone in another generation and will be replaced by another younger generation that is only 30% Protestant. When Northern Ireland was created 100 years ago it was 35% Catholic. The next generation that will be born will be less than 30% Protestant.

These numbers do not explain the whole picture on religious demographics and I will now analyze in more detail the “Religion” and “Religion Brought Up In” data.

To begin with, a Catholic is a Catholic is a Catholic. There are 870,000 with a Catholic background but not all are native Irish. There are 55,000 Catholics who were born outside of the UK and Ireland. Almost ¾ of those are from other European countries. With Brexit, their residency in the UK is more precarious. They may have settled status, but their relatives and friends are no longer permitted to emigrate to the UK. Of course, with a successful Border Poll, Northern Ireland would be automatically back into the EU, which is a desirable outcome for those EU nationals living in Northern Ireland. Both EU and Non-EU Catholics are often involved in their local Catholic parishes and schools. They are occasionally the target of loyalist paramilitaries and are aware of anti-Catholic sentiment from that community.

There is a misconception that foreign nationals are mainly Catholic. However, Catholics are only 44.5% of all foreign born (non-UK or Ireland) residents of Northern Ireland, which is slightly less than the 45.7% of the Catholic population in Northern Ireland.

Unlike Catholics, the Protestant community is more complicated. The actual census category for Religion and Religion Brought Up In is titled:

“Protestant and Other Christian and Christian Related”

I will delve into this further. The actual native Protestant population is significantly less than the 827,541 recorded in the census.

There are 28,000 Protestants who were born outside of the UK and Ireland.

A slight majority are from Europe and half of those from Europe are Eastern Orthodox (mainly Romania and Bulgaria). Many of those from Africa and Asia are from racial or ethnic groups within the various countries from which they originated.

The census does not have data on the children of immigrants who are born in Northern Ireland. However, other data shows that there have been 40,000 children born in Northern Ireland between the year 2000 and the 2021 census whose mother was born outside the UK or Ireland. There are approximately another 5,000 to 10,000 who were born prior to 2000. There are between 45,000 and 50,000 children who were born to mothers from another country.

Not all of these are still living in Northern Ireland. NINO registration data shows that only half of all foreign nationals who received NINO registrations were still living in Northern Ireland in the 2021 census (many had left due to the COVID pandemic). It is more likely that the short term immigrants are the ones that return home and do not settle and have children in Northern Ireland. I estimate that 30,000 to 35,000 children who were born to foreign mothers were still living in Northern Ireland at the time of the 2021 census. Approximately 7,000 to 8,000 would be in the Religious category of Protestant and Other Christian and Christian Related.

Altogether, the “Protestant” foreign born or their Northern Ireland born children are approximately 2% of the Northern Ireland population. Thus, this 2% should be subtracted from the 43.5% Protestant population.

The EU nationals, in particular, do not identify with unionist politics and would prefer to rejoin the EU. That is only possible via a Border Poll.

There is also new data on current Religious denomination for the 2021 census. This does not include those raised in a religion.

The Catholic population has increased. However, between 2011 and 2021 there was a decline in every Protestant denomination with over 1,000 members (except Jehovah’s Witnesses). There were increases in 2 designations in the Protestant and Other Christian and Christian related category but these are not denominations.

1,690 listed their religion as mixed Catholic/ Protestant. This group should, more accurately, be included with the Other group.

In the 2011 census there were 14,630 who designated their religion as “Christian” with no further information. It appears they were all combined in 1 category. There was a large increase for 2021 in those who designated “Christian” with several subcategories. Altogether, 43,661 designated “Christian”, an increase of 27,452 from 2011. The sub categories were

Christian-Protestant         16,209

Christian-Christian            22,632

Christian- Non Denominational               3,959

Christian-Other                                           1,131 

The increase of 27,452 in this category is due to the increasing secularization of society. These 27, 452 would have belonged to a Christian denomination in 2011 but now designate themselves as generic Christian. The census did not ask what their denomination was previously. The census does ask those who have No Religion what Religion they were raised in. However, these Christians have not abandoned their religion. Rather, they no longer belong to a denomination but still identify as Christian.

In the UK census for the rest of the UK almost half of the population identified as Christian. Other surveys have shown that 1/3 of those identify as Christian but not with any denomination. Obviously, that percentage is much lower in Northern Ireland. What was the religious designation for those 27, 452 “Christian” in the 2021 census back in 2011?  For the None Group in 2021 we know that 64,600 were raised Catholic and 116,552 were raised Protestant. 35% of the None group that no longer have a religion are of a Catholic background.

Of the 43,661 who designated Christian in 2021 there were 16,209 who designated Christian-Protestant so we can be certain that they were from a Protestant denomination previously. That leaves us with 27,452 who identify as Christian but not Protestant. As with the None group, some of these were previously members of a Protestant or Catholic denomination. If they are in the same ratio as the former religion of the None group then approximately 9,500 would be former Catholics who still identify as Christian (but not None). Taking this into account would increase the Catholic background population to 46.2%. The true Protestant group would decline by 0.5%.

There is one other minor adjustment. The Northern Ireland census includes British military and their dependents stationed in Northern Ireland. In 2011, this group was over 5,000. They do not vote in Northern Ireland. Their demographics are similar to other regions of the UK and are only 10% Catholic and almost half No Religion. Excluding them raises the Catholic population by 0.1% and decreases the None group by 0.1%

The None (not raised in any Religion) group also needs to be adjusted for various factors. This group is 9.3 % of the Northern Ireland population. Of this group, 25,556 are foreign born and are 20% of all foreign nationals. Their children born in Northern Ireland would be approximately 6,000 to 7,000. The total of approximately 32,000 is 1.7% of the entire population. After also subtracting those in the British military the native None population would be 7.5%.

In summary, the Northern Ireland population as revealed in the 2021 census is approximately the following percentages for Religion and Religion Brought Up In:

Catholic (including foreign nationals)         46.25%

Protestant (native)                                         41.0%

None (native)                                                     7.5%

Other                                                                   5.25%

(includes non Catholic Christian and None foreign nationals)

The voting age population would be different since the None and Catholic groups have a younger age profile. In 2023 this would be for voting age population:

Catholic                          45.5%

Protestant (native)       42.5%

None (native)                  6.5%

Other                                5.5%

As for the future, birth and death rates in Northern Ireland have settled into a new pattern.

Births have declined to approximately 21,000 per year and deaths have increased to 17,000 per year. Since only 30% of new births are from the native Protestant population, that is only 6,300 births per year. Between 10,500 and 11,000 of the deaths would be from the native Protestant population. That is a net decline of  4,500 per year. Add in 2,000 per year of net emigration from the Protestant population and the total yearly decline is 6,500, or 65,000 per decade.

It is not clear whether unionist political parties are aware of this demographic cliff but they will surely become fully aware in future elections.               

A Button Sewn on, Badly

Anyone with an ounce of intelligence here will possibly nod off at the thought of yet another pro Union party political broadcast based upon the single, solitary policy of “Themmuns”. Again.

It is unfortunate and I’m not going to recite the details of this lunacy or why it’s so incredibly stupid. I suspect most of us know.

What I find interesting is the fact that some haven’t moved beyond that point yet, not alone are they unwilling but they seem incapable of doing so.

I’d like to help them but you cannot engage in conversation without a partner who doesn’t value your opinion as, I suspect, they wouldn’t. Perhaps I am wrong.

So let’s start with some facts.

Politically,

Unionism is now a minority in every sphere except for elected local councillors. That may be about to change in a few days time.

Socially,

Constant negative social messaging has been overturned every single time by what people here actually think. I can give ye a list but I know the childrens playgrounds used to be locked on a Sunday, I’m thinking of womens rights, gay people, religious independence not to mention our own language (“Our” meaning ALL of our language).

Denial

The constant wish to revert to what the six counties represented when it was formed in 1922 is a complete denial of reality in terms of what it actually is now. Clue? It’s a very different place.

The Future

Without a willingness to engage with our future, every politician actually fails our own children. The future should be the focus for us all. Some seem inexplicably obsessed with our past.

Change

Ability to understand, absorb and embrace change is a skill unique to intelligent, progressive and, I hesitate to say this, republican, people. Change is actually a brilliant thing, It helps us all engage with a wider world, teaches us languages, skills, values and truths. We are all equal as citizens, that’s important I believe.

I’m looking forward to the vote count on Friday and I’ll be glued to it as, I suspect, may of you will be too. The important thing is to get out there and vote, whatever your political views. Failing to vote is just handing control to those who want to return us all to a myopic utopia of the 1950’s.

District Council Elections 2023

By Faha

The District Council Elections will be held on May 18^th. 462 Council candidates will be elected across the 11 District Councils. In

the 2019 Council elections the total vote for unionist candidates exceeded that for all nationalist candidates by 27,000. In the 2022 Assembly election the total vote for unionist candidates exceeded that for nationalist candidates by only 2,000. It is now a year later and with that trend I expect the nationalist and unionist vote to be equal. I will analyze selected DEAs, those where it is possible that unionist seats may be lost with an equal nationalist and unionist vote in all of Northern Ireland.

I will begin with Belfast.

Titanic DEA- 6 seats

SF missed out on a seat by only 200 votes in 2019.  Between the 2014 election and the 2019 election the unionist percentage declined from 65.7% (68.2% if NI21 included) to 58%. That drop was due to a combination of demographic changes and defections from unionist parties to the Alliance Party. With the demographic changes I expect SF to win this time. Also, the PUP is not contesting this election so their council seat will be lost to SF. The SDLP have a candidate this time and SF should benefit from their transfers.

Balmoral- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 38.2% (41.9% if NI21 included) to 35.4% between 2014 and 2019. If it should decline to 30% in this election then the 2^nd DUP is at risk since 3% of the UUP vote did not transfer the DUP in 2019. The 2^nd DUP seat could be lost to either Alliance or the SDLP.

Castle- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 41.6% (44.8% if NI21 included) in 2014 to 34.2% in 2019. That decline was due to demographic changes and defections to the Alliance Party. At that rate of decline the unionist vote may be only 29% in 2023. That would be enough for 2 quotas (28.6%). However, 2% of the UUP vote will not transfer to the DUP so their 2^nd seat is at risk. This would be a SF gain at the expense of the DUP.

Court- 6 seats

The total unionist vote declined from 64% in 2014 to 61.2% in 2019. If it should decline to 58% in 2023 the PUP seat could be lost. This is because 1% of the UUP will not transfer to the PUP. There are only 2 SF candidates though and the 3^rd non unionist seat would come from a large assortment of parties including PBP, SDLP, Worker Party, IRSP, Alliance and Green. Since these parties transfer poorly to each other it is unlikely the PUP will lose their seat.

Now I will go over Lisburn and Castlereagh

Lisburn North- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 66.2% (74.8% if NI21 included) in 2014 to 59.2% in 2019. At that rate of decline it may be only 52% in 2023. The UUP elected 2 with only 17.7% 1^st preference votes and one of those seats will be lost in 2023 and SF will pick up a seat here.

Lisburn South- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 75.1% (84% including NI21) in 2014 to 69.7% in 2019. At that rate of decline it may 65% or less in 2023. That would be enough only to elect 4 out of 6 seats. Alliance currently have 1. The SDLP only lost by 122 votes in 2019 so they would be most likely to pick up a seat. Alliance have 2 candidates this time and SF are competing here for the 1^st time ever.

Killultagh- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 62.8% (69% including NI21) in 2014 to 55.8% in 2019. At that rate of decline it may be 51% in 2023. There is a remote chance for a 3^rd non unionist seat which would be either SDLP or Alliance.

Castlereagh South- 7 seats

The unionist vote declined from 39.7% (44.1% including NI21) to 31% in 2019. At that rate of decline it may be only 25% in 2023. The DUP had 22.9% and the UUP 6.9% in 2019. The UUP won a seat due to poor balancing of candidates by the DUP. The DUP will have difficulty electing 2 since some UUP votes will transfer to non unionist parties. Alliance could elect a 3^rd here with the SDLP less likely winning a 2^nd.

I will now examine Antrim and Newtownabbey

Ballyclare- 5 seats

Alliance was only 200 votes short of a seat in 2019. This time there are SF and Green candidates standing which will bring out a small number of additional voters who will transfer to Alliance.

Antrim- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 63.4% (65.8%) in 2014 to 53.4% in 2019. With that rate of decline it will be less than 50% this year. In 2019, Alliance won 1 seat with 1 candidate and 26.3% of the vote and the UUP won 2 seats with 16% of the vote. The UUP will lose a seat to Alliance.

Glengormley Urban- 7 seats

The unionist vote decline from 50.4% (53.8% including NI21) in 2014 to 44.8% in 2019. If it drops below 40% this year a unionist seat could be at risk., though unlikely this year.

I will now review Newry Mourne and Down

Rowallane- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 59.7% (3.5% including NI21) in 2014 to 52.5% in 2019. At that rate of decline it will be below 50% this year. The 2^nd DUP seat could be lost to SF if SF is transfer friendly.

The Mournes- 7 seats

The unionist vote declined from 44.1% (45.5% including NI21) in 2014 to 40.1% in 2019. If it declines to 37% or less this year then one of the unionist seats could be lost to either the SDLP or Alliance.

I will now look at Armagh Banbridge and Craigavon

Banbridge- 7 seats

The unionist vote declined from 64.8% (68% including NI21) in 2014 to 63.3% in 2019. The SDLP candidate was only 50 votes from a quota and will likely win in 2023 and join the SF and Alliance candidates who won in 2019.

I will now review Mid Ulster.

Dungannon- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 47.8% in 2014 to 44.4% in 2019. At that rate of decline it could be less than 42% this year. That would be just short of 3 quotas. One of the unionist seats could be lost this year.

Moyola- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 35.5% in 2014 to 32.5% in 2019. There were 1 DUP and 1 UUP elected in 2019 and the SDLP candidate was only 110 votes behind the UUP candidate with an undistributed SF surplus of 88 votes. It is likely that the UUP seat will be lost to the SDLP this year.

 I will now review the Fermanagh and Omagh Council

Omagh DEA- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 31.5% in 2014 to 26.9% in 2019. That was slightly less than 2 quotas but 1 DUP and 1 UUP were elected. With a further decline this year the UUP seat will be lost to either SF or the SDLP.

I will now review Derry and Strabane

Waterside- 7 seats

The unionist vote declined from 54.2% in 2014 to 44.8% in 2019. While it could drop below 40% in this election it is unlikely that 1 of the 3 unionist seats will be lost unless it drops below 38%.

Faughan- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 43.6% in 2014 to 37.8% in 2019. If it should decline to less than 34% this year then the DUP would risk losing a seat since ¼ of UUP transfers went to non unionist candidates in 2019.

Sperrin- 7 seats

The unionist vote declined from 27.1% in 2014 to 23.9% in 2019. Despite a unionist vote less than 2 quotas (25%) the 2^nd DUP candidate was ahead of the 2^nd SDLP candidate by 120 votes. Either SF or the SDLP will win one of those DUP seats this month.

Now I will review Causeway Coast and Glens

Limavady- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 63.4% in 2014 to 56.1% in 2019. This is a DEA where nationalist turnout has always been significantly lower than unionist turnout. If it should drop to less than 52% then 1 of the 3 DUP seats is at risk. This is because 2% of the UUP vote transfers to non unionist candidates.

Ballymoney- 7 seats

The unionist vote declined from 69.3% in 2014 to 68.1% in 2019. SF elected 2 with 23.5% of the vote and Alliance was over 200 votes short. However, in this election the SDLP will have a candidate and it possible that with SDLP transfers and UUP transfers that Alliance could win a seat.

 I will now review Mid and East Antrim

Coast Road- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 63.5% in 2014 to 54.6% in 2019. Alliance won 1 seat with 1 candidate who was over a quota at 21.7% (quota 16.6%). Alliance has 2 candidates this year and with a further decline in the unionist vote should elect 2.

And the last to be reviewed is Ards and North Down

Comber- 5 seats

The unionist vote declined from 84.1% (86.8% including NI21) in 2014 to 71% in 2019. If it declines to less than 67% then 1 of the unionist seats could be lost. Alliance has a 2^nd candidate in this election and there is also a Green candidate. It is likely that the TUV seat will be lost to either Alliance or Green.

Bangor East and Donaghadee- 6 seats

The unionist voted declined from 84.6% (87.2% including NI21) in 2014 to 73.2% in 2019. The Green candidate lost by only 70 votes. With the declining unionist vote the Green candidate should win a seat and 1 unionist seat will be lost.

Ards Peninsula- 6 seats

The unionist vote declined from 65.9% (67.5% including NI21) in 2014 to 62.1% in 2019. If the unionist vote drops to less than 60% then a 3^rd non unionist candidate could be elected. This would only occur in a scenario where the UUP candidate is eliminated (only 10.6% vote in 2019) and the Green candidate receives some UUP transfers.

There are 27 potential unionist seats that could be lost in this election. It is unlikely that all 27 will be won by non unionist candidates but 20 losses is a reasonable prediction.

The GFA, the Protocol and Assembly Elections

By Faha

LucidTalk conducted a poll in January of this year. The weighted sample size was 1,499 and topics covered included the NI Protocol, the GFA and voter preference in an Assembly election.

Voters were asked how they would vote in the GFA referendum if the vote was held in 2023. In 1998, the GFA was approved with 71% voting YES and 29% voting NO. Results were not available by District Council or Westminster constituencies.

The only political parties that campaigned for a NO vote were the DUP and UK Unionist Party though there were some dissident republicans who were also opposed. Opinion polls were very limited in 1998 but it appears that the Catholic population was

overwhelmingly in favour of the GFA. Based on the demographics of the 2001 census it appears that there was a slight majority of the Protestant population that voted YES, probably in the range of 52% to 53%. However, since some Protestants voted for Alliance or other non sectarian candidates in other elections it is likely that a slight majority of those who voted for unionist parties voted NO.

IN 2023 these are the results on how a referendum on the GFA would be based on Religion and Party preferences.

Catholic

Yes                    94%

No                      4%

Undecided        2%

Protestant

Yes                   34%

No                    58%

Undecided        8%

Other-None

Yes                   66%

No                    28%

Undecided       6%

Total

Yes                64%

No                31%

Undecided    5%

The GFA would still be approved by a 2 to 1 margin. However, there has been a large decline in support for the GFA among Protestants. While a slight majority supported the GFA in 1998 only 1/3 do so in 2023.

Even more revealing is support for the GFA by political party (vote in 2022 Assembly election). 97% of voters who voted for SF or the SDLP would vote for the GFA and 92% of Alliance voters would. For unionist parties the results are:

DUP

Yes            16%

No             79%

TUV

Yes             4%

No            92%

UUP           

Yes          58%

No           28%

What is obvious is that there is little support for the GFA among hard line unionist parties (DUP and TUV) and overall only 13% of DUP-TUV voters would vote for the GFA in 2023. I will return to this point later.

A question was also asked about the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Voters were asked if the DUP should return to the Northern Ireland Assembly if only some minor changes (“lighter touch”) were made to the Protocol. Overall the results were:

Return to Stormont regardless of format of NI Protocol

60%

Return to Stormont with minor changes to NI Protocol

6%

Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely

21%

Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol

12%

For SF, SDLP and Alliance voters at least 95% preferred the option that the DUP should return to Stormont regardless of the format of the NI Protocol. The results were very different for unionist voters.

DUP

Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely

55%

Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol

39%

TUV

Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely

83%

Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol

14%

UUP

Return to Stormont regardless of format of NI Protocol

50%

Return to Stormont with minor changes to NI Protocol

25%

Only return if NI Protocol is removed completely

9%

Only return if major changes made to NI Protocol

16%

For UUP voters changes in the NI Protocol are not a major issue over forming a new Executive. However, the hardline unionist party (DUP and TUV) voters are overwhelmingly opposed to having the DUP return to Stormont unless the NI Protocol is abolished or has major changes.

Voters were asked about party preference if a new Assembly election was held.

The Results were (excluding undecideds)

SF                                                               

30.5%

SDLP                                                         

 7.3%  

Other nationalist (Aontu, PBP, etc.)   

3.1%

Alliance

14.7%

Green- other nonsectarian

2.6%

DUP

24.9%

TUV

6.7%

UUP

9.8%

Other unionist

1.4%

Both the SF and DUP preference is higher compared to the 2022 Assembly election and that for the UUP and SDLP is lower. This indicates that nationalist and unionist voters are consolidating around the largest nationalist and unionist parties. Essentially, the Assembly election is seen as a referendum on whether there should be a nationalist or a unionist First Minister.

The DUP have been criticized for their refusal to return to Stormont and form an Executive. To some extent this criticism is unfair. They are only following the wishes of their voters. Only 16% of their voters would vote for the GFA in 2023 and one of the requirements of the GFA is power sharing between the nationalist and unionist communities. Their voters are overwhelmingly opposed to the GFA and sharing power with the nationalist community. One cannot fault a political party for following the beliefs of their own voters. Furthermore, if the DUP did agree to return to Stormont after a new election they would lose a large percentage of their voters to the more hardline TUV. The LucidTalk poll from exactly one year ago had the DUP support at 17% and the TUV at 12%. It was only because the DUP took a more hardline stance over power sharing that they were able win back those voters who had defected to the TUV.

This presents a major dilemma for SF and the SDLP, the only parties that support mandatory power sharing. The DUP will never accede to a SF First Minster. There was an extended hiatus for the Assembly 20 years ago which ended with the St. Andrews Agreement. It was rumoured that the DUP only agreed to share power with a SF Deputy First Minister because the Labour government threatened Ian Paisley with joint rule with the Republic of Ireland. It is unlikely that a Conservative government would do so.

No Executive and no Assembly means direct rule by the Conservative Party. Apparently legislation will be introduced to postpone another Assembly election until 2024. What will happen to the Northern Ireland economy with a declining budget in an era of 10% inflation ? Will SF be content to allow the Assembly to cease to exist and Northern Ireland turn into a failed state? Perhaps so since that may increase support for a United Ireland. Or will they be patient and wait for a Labour government in January 2025? A Labour government will not be beholden to the DUP and may be willing to call a Border Poll.

Managing Decline

The past century has seen many empires crumble and decline, some slowly and by degrees such as the British Empire, some quickly, overtaken by their own sense of self importance and entitlement such as the third reich and south Africa.

Which brings me to Jeffrey.

Looking at Jeffrey’s history it is obvious why. His political life began in South Down as an activist with Enoch Powell. He then joined the UUP. When he fell out with them (because he couldn’t stomach the GFA), he joined the DUP. He is now what passes for a “Leader” with them. There is a thread of consistency here, he has loyalty to nobody but himself. He has my best wishes on that score. He also has my pity and concern because Jeffrey’s weak point is obvious, he seeks approval.

The weakness in this is that he hasn’t yet come to terms with the fact that he is a politician who argues for a minority opinion within a minority community. I know that his real/actual issue is serving with a Sinn Fein first Minister, I think we all do.

He is perfectly entitled to argue for his opinions and beliefs, what he is not entitled to do is to inflict them on the rest of us as he constantly attempts to. It is time he woke up to that fact. Nationalist and Republican people in the North East of Ireland know what it is like to have an identity forced upon them. It won’t be happening again.

The difficulty he now has is that events have overtaken him and those who hold similar opinions, our conversation is now active, live and happening about how our new Ireland will look.

Up until the late 1960’s, Unionism actively sought to preserve their manufactured majority by denying basic rights to those they viewed as “unfriendly”. People like myself. That was active policy by means of denial of votes, housing, education, benefits, jobs, voices.

It failed.

Now their latest great idea is the “Protocol”. Where do I start?

For starters, the real problem is actually BREXIT. The one championed by guess who? Oh yeah……………………….

The one voted AGAINST by a majority of people here.

We now know that a majority of people actually favour the protocol mitigations as a defence against the economic damage inflicted on us by the DUP Brexit nonsense.

It will be interesting to see how people react now that he is in inflicting yet another election upon us.

The None’s, the Nuns and the None of the above

By Faha

When the Northern Ireland Census Religion results were released this month there was little publicity about the group that had the largest increase. These are the people that have no current religion. They totaled 360,000, 19% of the entire population.

These 360,000 were asked in the census if they were raised in a religion and the results were approximately:

50%- No current religion and not raised in any religion

33%- No current religion but raised Protestant

17%- No current religion but raised Catholic

Those 177,000 who have no religion and were not raised in a religion are much higher than the 101,000 recorded in the 2011 census. Why ?

There have been 10 years of children added to the census since 2011 (age 0 to 9) and the school census indicates that 30,000 would be No religion. There were only a few thousand elderly None who died since 2011 so one would expect the overall None group to have been 127,000 in 2021. However, it was 50,000 higher. How can this be explained since theoretically those 50,000 would have put down a religion raised in the 2011 census but not in 2021?

At least 5,000 are probably foreign nationals that have emigrated to Northern Ireland since 2011. Some would also be those who had a religion recorded in the 2011 census when they were children. Now as adults in 2021 they did not recall being raised in a religion and so answered None-not raised in a religion. Others may have had a tenuous connection to being raised in a religion in 2011 but did not include it in the 2021 census.

Since the overall None group is 19% of the population can they are a substantial voting bloc and half the size of the Protestant population. Are there any clues as to how they vote in elections or how they would vote in a Border Poll ? Fortunately, there are and this group has been included in many recent polls.

LucidTalk conducted 2 Assembly voting intention polls in March and May of 2022.

Voting intention was tabulated by Religion-Catholic, Protestant, None and Other

For those who indicated that their religion was None the results were:

                                                  March 2022              May 2022

Nationalist parties                       42%                           38%

Alliance-Green                             34%                           38% 

Unionist parties                           22%                            23%

Clearly, those with No Religion have a low preference for unionist parties and are slightly more likely to prefer nationalist parties over Alliance and Green. It is not surprising the preference is so high for Alliance and Green but the high preference for nationalist parties is new compared to 10 or 20 years ago. 10 to 20 years ago the None group had a voting preference that was 40% to 45% unionist, 35% Alliance-Green and 20% to 25% nationalist. This change in voter preference may be related to Brexit.

There were also 2 Border Poll questions in the Lord Ashcroft Poll in November 2021 and the LucidTalk Poll in the summer of 2021. The None group were polled in both and the results for voter preference were:

                                            LucidTalk       Lord Ashcroft

United Ireland                        45%                  47%                                                       

Remain in the UK                   35%                  35%

Undecided                               19%                  18%

Those with No Religion prefer a United Ireland with a plurality of 10% higher than those who wish to Remain in the UK.

Hopefully, future polls on Northern Ireland Assembly elections and a Border Poll would be based on the religion demographics in the 2021 census. Although the age profile for Religion have not yet been released the approximate voting age population is:

Catholic          

41%

Protestant and other Christian

39%

None

19%

Other (non-Christian)

1%

In some polls the Other group is much larger than 1% and this is probably due to including Christians, who do not consider themselves Protestant, in the Other group.

Interesting days ahead