By Faha
The Northern Ireland Boundary Commission released their proposals for the new boundaries of the 18 Westminster constituencies. I will look at the proposals for each constituency and analyze how the changes would influence the results for both Westminster and Assembly elections.
Foyle and East Londonderry
A unionist section of the Slievekirk ward was transferred from West Tyrone to Foyle. The Eglington ward (~55% Catholic) was transferred from Foyle to East Londonderry. The overall demographic change would be neutral for Foyle and East Londonderry
would be 0.5% more Catholic.
There would be no changes in the Westminster election. However, for an Assembly election in East Londonderry the loss of one of the unionist seats is more likely. The combined unionist vote in the 2019 Westminster election was 49.3%, slightly less than 3 quotas. Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP all had a vote from 15.1% to 15.7% with 4.4% for Aontu. Decreasing the total unionist vote by 0.5% would make it more likely that Sinn Fein, Alliance and the SDLP would all win a seat with a net loss of one unionist.
West Tyrone
A unionist section of Slievekirk was transferred to Foyle. The new wards of Pomeroy and Donaghmore were transferred from Mid Ulster and Fermanagh South Tyrone to West Tyrone. Overall, the constituency is 1% more Catholic so any hope of regaining a 2nd unionist seat in an Assembly election is unlikely.
Fermanagh South Tyrone
There were major changes here. The Dungannon town wards were transferred to Mid Ulster and the unionist Killyman ward was transferred to Upper Bann. The old Loughgall, Ballymartrim and Charlemont wards were transferred from Newry and Armagh. The overall change is to increase the Catholic population less than 0.5%.
However, the changes in an election would be more pronounced. The Dungannon wards have a high percentage of Catholic EU nationals who do not vote in Westminster elections whereas there is a high turnout of nationalist voters in the wards added from Newry and Armagh. I estimate that the Sinn Fein vote would increase 1% to 2% in a Westminster election. The prospect of a unionist candidate regaining this seat in a Westminster election appear more remote with these changes.
Mid Ulster gains the Dungannon town wards and loses the Pomeroy ward and the new Donaghmore ward to West Tyrone. Overall, the constituency is 1% less Catholic. It would appear that there would be an increased chance for a 2nd unionist Assembly seat. However, in the 5 years between elections that 1% decrease will be erased by demographic changes.
Upper Bann gains the unionist Killyman ward from Fermanagh South Tyrone and loses the Loughbrickland ward to South Down. It also loses the Aghagallon ward (85% Catholic) and the Magherlin ward (25% Catholic) to Lagan Valley. Overall, it is 1.5% less Catholic. In a 2027 Assembly election that 1.5% decline will be erased by demographic changes over the 5 years between elections.
South Down and Strangford
These 2 constituencies have the greatest changes and much of it involves exchanges of wards between them.
Strangford gains the entire 5 wards of the Downpatrick DEA (only 7% unionist vote in 2019 Council election). It also gains part of the Catholic majority Crossgar ward. The Saintfield and Moneyreagh wards are transferred to Belfast South and the Kilmore and Ballynahinch wards are transferred to South Down. South Down also gains the Gransha ward from Lagan Valley.
The Catholic population to Strangford increases from 17% to 30%. Based on the 2019 Westminster results the total non unionist vote would equal or exceed 50%. This would result in the loss of 2 unionist seats in an Assembly election with the SDLP and Alliance each gaining one.
The Catholic population of South Down would decline 7.5%. Based on the 2019 Westminster results the total unionist vote would increase to 30%, short of 2 quotas. It is likely that the SDLP would lose a seat to Alliance.
North Antrim and East Antrim
The North Antrim wards of Glenravel, Glenwhirry and Slemish are transferred to East Antrim and North Antrim gains the old Glendun ward (93% Catholic). The 3 wards transferred to East Antrim are overall identical in demographics to the remainder of North Antrim. The addition of the Glendun ward to North Antrim increase the Catholic population of North Antrim by almost 1%. The net effect would be a loss of a unionist Assembly seat to Alliance based on the 2019 Westminster election.
South Antrim has only minor changes with the loss of some partial wards that are heavily unionist to East Antrim and the Catholic majority sections of Mallusk ward to North Belfast.
Lagan Valley loses the Gransha ward to South Down and gains the Aghagallon ward (85% Catholic) and Magherlin ward (25% Catholic). Overall, the Catholic population increases by 4%. This would solidify the SDLP seat here.
North Down
Only one minor change here with the addition of the Garnerville ward (similar to the old Belmont ward) from East Belfast.
North Belfast
The unionist Forth River ward was added and the unionist Woodvale and Shankill wards were transferred to West Belfast. The Catholic majority sections of Mallusk ward were added. Overall, the Catholic population increases by over 2%. This will have significant implications for the next Westminster election. When also accounting for demographic changes between 2019 and 2024 it appears that the total unionist vote could drop below 40%. The Sinn Fein vote could reach or exceed 50%. This constituency appears to be lost forever to unionism.
East Belfast
Garnerville ward was transferred to North Down and the Woodstock and old Wynchurch and Hillfoot wards were added from South Belfast. The constituency is 2% more Catholic. This will have significant implications for the Westminster and Assembly elections. Taking into account also any demographic changes over 5 years it appears that Alliance could narrowly win a Westminster election. The boundary changes alone would add 2% to the Alliance vote and subtract 2% from the unionist vote and Alliance only lost by 4% in 2019. There could also be a net loss of one unionist seat in an Assembly election.
South Belfast
The wards transferred to East Belfast are mentioned above. The Moneyreagh and Saintfield wards are added from Strangford and Drumbo from Lagan Valley. Overall, there is no demographic change and thus no expected changes in the election results.
West Belfast
Derryaghy South is added from Lagan Valley. Forth River is transferred to North Belfast and the new Shankill and Woodvale wards are added from North Belfast. The new constituency is 5% less Catholic. In an Assembly election this would increase the total unionist vote to 16%, just short of a quota of 16.6%.
These are the initial proposals. Anyone can submit comments and alternative proposals until mid-December. These changes do not appear to be major or controversial in most constituencies. The Boundary Commission must devise constituencies with an electorate between 69,724 and 77,062 voters. Because the Northern Ireland electorate is lower than the UK average per constituency the average per constituency is closer to 69,724.
I expect that the major objections will involve the Strangford and South Down constituencies. The 5 wards of the Downpatrick DEA within the current South Down will be transferred to Strangford. These could be transferred back to South Down and Ballynahinch, Kilmore, Saintfield, and Moneyreagh could be transferred back to Strangford. With any changes, Strangford will need to add one ward from the current South Down constituency (in addition to the part of Crossgar ward currently added to Strangford).
The electoral implications will be much clearer after the Assembly elections in May 2022. Also, the census results will be available in another year. Since the new wards do not align exactly with the old wards the census will provide more accurate demographic details when available.
"We in coming days may be" 
Great analysis Faha,
So overall these changes are quite promising for Nationalism and Alliance. Not too good for Unionism. I suppose the way the demographics are going, most Boundary change proposals are not going to be good for Unionism.
Good point about Fermanagh & ST gaining voting Catholics for non-Westminster voting ones. Could be crucial given how Michelle Gildernew likes to sneak in by only a handfull of votes.
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agree “most Boundary change proposals are not going to be good for Unionism”.
Nice to see the days of efficacious sectarian gerrymandering are long over
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Faha, thanks for the analysis. Good to read that contrary to what I saw elsewhere that Unionism can’t even feel relaxed about E’Belfast. I think we’ll see very few changes to these proposed constituencies. Any further revision could see Unionism even further damaged.
You’ve made one small error here. Killyman moves to Mid Ulster and not Upper Bann. We don’t have the breakdown for the newer Killyman ward but it was ¾ of Unionist tradition from the pre 2015 boundaries to be included in Mid Ulster, or roughly 1800 people. About 6.5k nationalist and 1800 unionist tradition moved from old MU to WT, both usually motivated voters. Dungannon town area moving from F’ST – as you indicate huge immigrant population – is roughly 7.5 k Irish Nat and 4K Unionist. Turnout across the divide in the town is pretty low. These changes to Mid Ulster slightly favour Unionism and could impact if they’d been applicable next year. However, as you point out because of demographics nationalism may still take 4/5 seats in 2027.
Indeed, given the seismic ruptions from ‘the protocol’, which will galvanise nationalism and provoke previously disinterested middle ground voters enormously influencing the forthcoming May LA elections, there’s the possibility we’ll never see Stormont elections with these constituencies.
Countdown to May with prospect of Unionism losing 4/5 seats and impossibility of denying reunification referendum.
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The Killyman ward that I am referring to is the old Killyman ward. The majority of that ward was made part of the new Armagh Banbridge and Craigavon District Council when the new Council boundaries were devised years ago. That is why the Boundary Commission included it in Upper Bann. The new Killyman ward you are referring to includes part of the old Killyman ward and sections of other wards. The new ward names confuses discussion. For example, the new Shankill ward is actually comprised of more of the old Crumlin ward and the Crumlin name has disappeared.
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I was going by memory which was slightly out. There’re 3 Unionist dominated settlements in the Tyrone part of Killyman and I thought the Armagh end of the ward was a smaller territory. So yes, the area transferred to The ABC council is larger but it’s population is 800-900, staunchly unionist, compared to 2k – about 70% Unionist – of the old ward included in the reconstituted Killyman. A map can be seen at this link. The census will reveal that new ward has a small nationalist majority has it includes parts of Coalisland and Edendork which were already in Mid Ulster.
https://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/AreaProfileReportViewer.aspx?FromAPAddressMulipleRecords=KILLYMAN@Exact%20match%20of%20location%20name:%20@Exact%20Match%20Of%20Location%20Name:%20%20Killyman@5?
One can search Killyman on the ninis portal for the 6 old SA’s – the ward’s subdivisions, with maps, two of which were in County Armagh.
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Just been looking at the 2015 created wards to be used for Stormont in 2027 and strongly Unionist areas of the old Moy ward were included in the new Killyman ward. It’s only circa 450 people but Mid Ulster, with these proposed boundaries, will definitely be earmarked by Unionism as one seat they can retake from nationalism if those elections occur. Between 6 – 7k nationalists removed from constituency and circa 8k coming in. Roughly 1.8k unionist removed but replaced by about 6-6.5k gene pool.
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“The Boundary Commission must devise constituencies with an electorate between 69,724 and 77,062 voters”
With the use of rule 7 that lower limit can be about a 1000 lower.
I intend to make a submission as I personally see this as an unnecessary dog’s dinner of a review.
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Faha,
Given that the 17% Unionist vote in Foyle is just over the 16.7% Quota, surely the loss of a 55% Catholic ward and the gain of a 20% Catholic ward will make the currently vulnerable unionist seat secure.
Similarly. the loss of Wynchurch (45% C) and Hillfoot (30% C) in S. Belfast and the gain of Drumbo (20% C), Saintfield (26% C) and Moneyreagh (12 % C) must have a significant effect on the evenly balanced proportions, increasing the prospect of a Unionist gain.
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The Catholic population in South Belfast will only be 1% lower and that will be erased by demographic changes in 5 years. Woodstock ward (20% Catholic) was also transferred to East Belfast. So a 20% Catholic ward (Woodstock) was exchanged for a 20% Catholic ward (Drumbo). The Hillfoot ward (28% Catholic) was exchanged for the Saintfield ward (26% Catholic). It is only the changes involving the Wynchurch and Moneyreagh wards that change the demographics and only by 1% overall.
Also in Foyle removing a 55% Catholic ward in a constituency that is 77% Catholic raises the Catholic percentage.
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Ah, so Woodstock reduces it to just a 1% drop. If anywhere can overcome a 1% drop it must be S. Belfast.
In Derry, moving Eglinton out of Foyle is good for Nationalism by increasing the Catholic percentage in both Foyle and E. LDerry, where it’s C percentage is greater than the rest of constituency.
However, bringing 80% PUL Slievekirk in, will more than offset the Eglinton benefit to Foyle and presumably help Unionism retain it’s sole seat there.
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Paul, they kept the old name from the Strabane council but only around half the population remained in the Slievekirk ward devised for the current councils and now part of the proposed Foyle for next westminster elections. So its not 2600 Tyrone people being added to Foyle but around 1200 solidly unionist.
With Eglington leaving, I think for assembly elections Alliance will be weakened and if unionists lose their seat it’ll go to SDLP or PBP.
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Much of the discussion is about the peripheral changes of Eglinton and Slievekirk but if you look at the existing wards Culmore (SDLP heartland) has continued its growth to remain one of NIs biggest wards while Shantallow East (essentially area in and around Skeoge industrial estate – 50:50 SF and SDLP) is experiencing enormous growth dye to the entire ring road to the buncrana road having new builds all the way along.
These changes alone probably exceed any net horse-trading with Eglinton and Slievekirk.
That said I’ll be making a proposal for both Eglinton and Slievekirk to be shifted to neighbouring seats as Foyle still has the numbers to reach the lower limit.
I encourage you to do the same.
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Why not get on your computer and propose some changes then?
Last time there was a boundary review the DUP campaigned hard to change them and SF said they were fair enough.
Net result? Boundaries changed drastically to suit DUP.
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So there might not be as much of a change as it first seemed.
Thanks for clearing that up Paulie.
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Northern Ireland Assembly poll:
SF: 24% (-1)
DUP: 18% (+5)
ALL: 15% (+2)
UUP: 14% (-2)
SDLP: 12% (-1)
TUV: 11% (-3)
[Seats]
SF: 25 (+2)
DUP: 17 (+5)
ALL: 13 (+1)
UUP: 12 (-3)
SDLP: 10 (-2)
TUV: 10 (-3)
OTH: 3 (-)
Via LucidTalk, 5-11 Nov (+/- since Aug)
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Hobo,
SF seem to be bucking the trend.
According to your figures, they’ll gain 2 seats , as a result of dropping 1 %.
I hope you’re right but how does that happen ?
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Would I vote for or am I convinced of the merits of a United/Agreed/New Ireland.?
Yes. Have always been, I have been voting for Sinn Fein for 30 years. Up until now yes I have agreed it’s possible.
Now.? No, if the argument is led by Sinn Fein then again I say no.
Who else? I caught a tweet earlier from Claire Hanna, For the first time a recent tweet from a SDLP rep had me interested. She talks of a new constitutational arrangement.This is a party that 35% to 40% of their support wouldn’t vote for a United Ireland nor regard themselves as Nationalist.
My support for a United/new/agreed Ireland has nothing to do with specific parties, it’s who I am and what defines my aspirations, give me a party that champions the above and is genuinely all Ireland without the baggage, I will vote for them.
Is it time for a new all Ireland political party?
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Do you say that the catholic percentage in the 2011 census was lower than it should have been?
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