By Faha
Sure enough, as I was writing a new blog on the implications of this years Census, Faha beat me to it, this is fascinating so I’d encourage you all to comment or ask the questions as you think best – BD
A week ago, LucidTalk released an opinion poll on voter preferences for the 2022 Assembly election. Their previous poll on Assembly preference was released 4 months ago in January. The panel sample was 1,410 likely voters (it excluded undecided and non voters).
The polling was carried out after the new leaders of the DUP and UUP were known. The sample of voters by religious background was;
Protestant 40.35%
Catholic 37.94%
None 20.78%
Other 0.78%
Voter preference is as follows and changes are from the January poll:
Sinn Fein 25.1% + 1.5%
SDLP 12.3% – 0.4%
PBP 2.2% + 1.0%
Aontu 1.1% + 0.7%
Total Nationalist 40.7% + 2.8%
Alliance 16.2% – 1.7%
Green 1.8% – 0.1%
DUP 15.5% – 3.3%
UUP 14.0% + 2.1%
TUV 11.3% + 0.9%
Other Unionist 0.5% – 0.7%
Total Unionist 41.3% – 1.0%
Most of the changes are minor compared to January and are not statistically significant. However, the 3.3% decline in the DUP appears to be a real decline.
There are a few important findings in this poll. The total unionist and total nationalist vote are essentially equal. It is not possible for the unionist parties to achieve a majority of the 90 MLAs so it appears the days of a unionist majority in Stormont will never return to the pre 2017 era.
The collapse of the DUP vote is dramatic and unexpected. The DUP received 28.1% of the vote in the 2017 Assembly election and have lost nearly half of those voters. The TUV is the main beneficiary with their voter preference almost 9% higher than the vote they received in the 2017 election. The UUP vote is up only 1% since 2017.
The UUP vote is only 1.5% less than the DUP vote in this poll. This has major implications for the 2022 election and which unionist party will hold the position of Deputy First Minster. Of course, all 3 of the unionist parties will try to persuade unionist voters to vote for their party to prevent the election of a SF First Minister. The difficulty the DUP have with this approach is that they are now statistically even with the UUP in the polls so the UUP can make the same claim that they should be the choice of unionist voters. The only source of transfers for DUP candidates is the TUV. However, recent elections have shown that TUV transfers go equally to the DUP and UUP. The UUP will also receive significant transfers from the Alliance Party and to a lesser extent the SDLP.
I will now explore the implications for the 3 main unionist parties. The poll broke down voter preference by 4 regions. This is the voter preference by region for the unionist parties. I am including the Alliance preference since it has a significant influence on the number of unionist seats.
North (Foyle, East Londonderry, North Antrim)
DUP 11%
UUP 11%
TUV 13%
Alliance 17%
Historically, the UUP, TUV and Alliance vote has been much less than the DUP vote in Foyle. This implies that the Alliance vote would be above a quota in both East Londonderry and North Antrim.
The 2019 Westminster results did show a large increase in the Alliance vote in both those constituencies. This would result in only 2 unionist seats in East Londonderry and 3 in North Antrim. Since there is little TUV and UUP vote in Foyle the other 2 constituencies combined would have a TUV and UUP vote that each exceeds the DUP vote. There would be quotas for the UUP and TUV.
The DUP would have a quota for a seat in North Antrim and possibly one in East Londonderry. If the Foyle turnout is the same as Westminster, then the quota will be near 8,000 and with a marked decline in the DUP vote they will lose their seat in Foyle. They would also lose at least one seat in East Londonderry and one in North Antrim.
West (West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, Fermanagh South Tyrone)
DUP 14%
UUP 10%
TUV 7%
Alliance 12%
Although the total unionist vote is 31%, it would be higher in Fermanagh South Tyrone and less in the other 2 constituencies. Thus, there would be only 1 unionist elected in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone as occurred in 2017. The TUV vote is too low here for a seat. It is likely there would be no change in the unionist seats though it is possible that if the UUP vote exceeds the Alliance vote after TUV transfers that the Alliance candidate could be eliminated and a UUP candidate elected in either Mid Ulster or West Tyrone.
South ( South Down, Newry and Armagh, Upper Bann, Strangford)
DUP 18%
UUP 17%
TUV 9%
Alliance 11%
This region is more difficult to analyse since the constituencies are so different from each other. South Down and Newry & Armagh are heavily nationalist. Strangford is heavily unionist.
In Strangford, the 2019 Westminster election indicated 2 Alliance seats. This poll shows the DUP and UUP basically even . Also, the ratio of the TUV to the DUP vote matters since the DUP vote is twice the TUV vote. If the TUV vote is more than half the DUP vote in a constituency or if there is poor balancing among DUP candidates then the TUV could win a seat in Strangford or Upper Bann.
In Upper Bann the DUP will almost certainly lose one of their seats. If Alliance polls well then there could be an Alliance seat and the DUP would lose a seat. If Alliance is eliminated then the UUP are in a good position to elect 2 with a large number of Alliance transfers.
Newry & Armagh is another potential DUP loss if the UUP are almost even with the DUP since Alliance transfers would elect the UUP candidate.
East (4 Belfast, East Antrim, South Antrim, Lagan Valley, North Down)
DUP 16%
UUP 15%
TUV 13%
Alliance 20%
Green 3%
The DUP vote would be much less than 16 % in West Belfast. So, the other 7 constituencies would average 17% to 18%. Six of those constituencies had a range for a DUP vote from 32% to 41% in the 2017 Assembly election. With such little variation in 2017 it is likely that the DUP vote would be slightly over one quota in all 6.
In East Antrim the 2019 Westminster results strongly point to 2 Alliance seats so based on these numbers there would be one each for the DUP, UUP and TUV. The DUP would also lose a seat in South Antrim, Lagan Valley, North Down, East Belfast and North Belfast. South Belfast is another possibility especially if there are enough excess non unionist voters that transfer to the UUP.
Overall, the large decline in the DUP vote would result in the loss of anywhere from 11 to 17 seats. It is possible that the Alliance Party could win more seats than the DUP.
The DUP would have a minimum of 11 seats and a maximum of 17 seats.
It would be helpful to have polls for each constituency. I realize this would be difficult to do since it would require at least 400 voters to give a statistically accurate count.
If the Alliance Party decides to designate as Unionist (as they did once previously) there could be a Sinn Fein First Minister and an Alliance Deputy First Minister.
"We in coming days may be" 
I think we are entering a period of three main constitutional blocs in the north, a Venn diagram of more or less evenly balanced pro-unity and pro-union circles with a non-aligned crossover in the middle. In the first circle we have SF, SDLP, Aontú, PB, etc. In the second we have DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP, etc. In the merging of both we have Alliance, closer to the pro-union circle, and the Greens, closer to the pro-unity circle.
The pro-union circle will remain largely indifferent to any pro-unity arguments.
The crossover is where the argument for reunification needs to be won.
The problem is judging when that argument has been won, as non-aligned voters might continue with their voting preferences for union-leaning Alliance, for example, while also having a preference for reunification if given the option in a referendum.
The Alliance Party was traditionally seen as the safe or respectable pro-union gateway drug for Catholic voters. Might the opposite dynamic be at work in the future for Protestant voters, albeit to a lesser extent, as Alliance becomes less union-leaning?
And what if the Alliance pulls a fast one at Stormont and designates as unionist to secure the Deputy FM office following a second place showing in next year’s assembly election? Should that possibility be asked of them now by enquiring journalists?
Finally some scepticism on polling. Or some polling at least…
https://www.thepensivequill.com/2021/05/up-with-union-down-with-unity-measuring.html?m=1
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interesting times indeed.
My impression is that the ‘Nationalist’ vote/proportion of the population is plateaued at about 40%, despite demographics, & that the Unionist vote is sinking because of them (demographics).
If that is so, more & more of the Alliance Party will be soft nationalist, or from a ‘nationalist gene pool’, as the term is used in the South for ‘lapsed’ FF or FG politicians.
If this is so, the Alliance Party could become ambivalent about the Union, and become very persuadable to Unity, given the right circumstances, & the right arguments.
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The previous 2 polls do show that for every net 3 former unionist voters that have defected to Alliance there are net 4 former nationalist voters that have defected to Alliance. So there are more nationalist voters that are switching to Alliance.
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This week will go down in history as the moment that Unionism tripped up and stumbled on, never regaining balance, before finally collapsing in defeat on a UI referendum.
Faha completely on top of the analysis, as usual .
Is there a prediction on the total seat tally for the parties based on the latest opinion poll?
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Based on the regional vote preference I estimate
Foyle 5 nationalist
East Londonderry 2 nationalist 1 Alliance 2 unionist
North Antrim 1 nationalist 1 Alliance 3 unionist
West Tyrone 4 nationalist 1 unionist
Mid Ulster 4 nationalist 1 unionist
Fermanagh-STyrone 3 nationalist 2 unionist
Newry&Armagh 4 nationalist 1 unionist
South Down 3 to 4 nationalist ? 1 Alliance 1 unionist
Upper Bann 2 nationalist ? 1 Alliance 2 to 3 unionist
Strangford ? 1 nationalist 1 to 2 Alliance 3 unionist
North Down 2 to 3 Alliance-Green 2 to 3 unionist
Lagan Valley ? 1 nationalist 1 to 2 Alliance 3 unionist
South Antrim 1 nationalist 1 Alliance 3 unionist
East Antrim 2 Alliance 3 unionist
West Belfast 5 nationalist
North Belfast 2 to 3 nationalist ? 1 Alliance 2 unionist
South Belfast 2 nationalist 2 to 3 Alliance-Green 1 unionist
East Belfast 2 to 3 Alliance-Green 2 to 3 unionist
So a minimum of 31 unionist seats and a maximum of 35.
The unionist losses are mainly due to increased Alliance vote in East Londonderry, North Antrim, East Antrim and Strangford.
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Thanks Faha,
So 34-37 Nationalists, 31-35 unionists and 14-22 Green/Alliance.
I think nationalists will hold Lagan Valley and S. Down and maybe sneak 1 in Strangford.
SF will outpoll the SDLP much more than the DUP outpoll the UUP, so looking very good for a SF 1st minister.
Much as i’ve enjoyed Arlene getting her just deserts from her ‘colleagues’, it would also have been nice to see her get to the election and take the demotion to number 2 to Michelle.
Although, she probably would have used the excuse of electoral defeat, to appear noble and fall on her sword, rather than be a democrat and play second fiddle to a shinner.
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I hope SF pull the plug on Power sharing if the DUP vote continues to collapse. We need another election and if the DUP cannot keep to its commitments so be it Someone said the reason Edwin Poots won’t take the First Minister post is he does not want to play second fiddle to a SF First Minister who is also a woman when SF top the poll.
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The DUP won’t keep any of it’s commitments to Nationalists.
Like the ancestors of the Cat in Red Dwarf, they are the dregs that were left behind when the Nation builders and ancestors of so many Presidents, left for America.
There is no integrity or honesty in that party. Just sleight of hand, duplicity, back stabbing and bigotry.
There’s an election only 12 months away.
Better Poots and co. get a full year to exhibit their true ‘credentials’ rather than risking a quick defeat and a new leader by Autumn.
The longer Donaldson and the Dodderers have to put up with the punitive goading, the more likely they are to start a new party and split unionism even more.
Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake!
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No Irish Language Act No Assembly it’s as simple as that they want their Fisher Price Parliament we want the Irish Language treated with Equality and Respect. It’s time for SF to stand up and be counted. It’s funny how a ILA is divisive to Unionists yes everything Nationalists want is divisive anything which isn’t the Status Quo is divisive to Unionists. Let’s pull down their beloved Assembly down around there ears for a second time obviously they didn’t learn their lesson the first time round.
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In that poll both the SDLP and Alliance lost percentage – where did that percentage go?
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The SDLP decline is not statistically significant.The exact same voters were not polled both times so there is some random statistical noise. It is not possible to determine where the Alliance voters went since changes in the preference of individual voters between January and May is not known.
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Faha the whole poll is not statistically significant.
There’s no random aspect as it’s mailing list only.
There’s no verification that ppl don’t say, I used to vote X but now vote Y.
There’s also no limit to how many email accounts a bored party hack can register and fill in.
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If there is a genuine shift getting underway from DUP to UUP then it wouldn’t take much for those DUP seats in the SF dominated seats to be reversed and UUP take the seats in WT, MU and N&A. Also a lot of pressure on 2nd DUP seat in East Derry if UUP improves, Sugden maintains a decent vote share and TUV makes gains as well as Alliance threaten taking a seat. Either Sugdens vote collapses to UUP and Sugden or the DUP is going to get shredded from every side.
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The poll was taken at a bad time for the DUP and since then they’ve appointed Donaldson who is quite an experienced politician. Moreover the changes in the support for the UUP are within margin of error. It’s certainly possible that the UUP have increased in support, but Doug Beattie was probably not in post very long when this poll was taken. So I know it’s boring but I think we should really look to see the next Lucid Talk poll says.
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Our New First Minister
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I see a Tory Grandee is advising Boris to have a Love Actually moment with Joe Biden. In the film a British prime minister tells a American president where to go. So says Lord Forsyth once described as Margaret Thatchers favourite piece of Blue Tartan. Please Boris make this happen this is just what the UK needs right now.
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I see Joe Biden has rebuked the UK Government accusing it of threatening the Irish Peace Process.
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Yesterday he quoted WB Yeats Easter 1916 for them,epic stuff https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1402727121097838600?s=20
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When she says she expected a fudge, she means they expected to renege on the signed Treaty, in whole or in part, and they expected the Europeans to let them cheat because they are the mighty, self-righteous, self-important British and Paddy could go and eat shit – again.
More racist supremacism from people who present themselves as liberal progressives.
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Such a pity Poots is gone. He would have depressed Unionist turnout and transfers and guaranteed a SF first minister.
He was also clearly intent on making the institutions work – for all his faults.
Now it’s back to the so called ‘moderate wing’ of the Bigot Party, who will bring any progress to a halt while the crypto Unionist Dublin media and Government, lap up their excuses and find a way to blame Sinn Fein, in one last ditch attempt to keep them out.
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They are going to have a problem installing little Jeffrey as the New DUP leader. Most of the DUP MLA’s voted against him the last time. Sammy the Streaker and LondonGregory could be the DUP dream team.
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That would be a dream for Nationalists, if those two Clowns were running the DUP.
‘LondonGregory’ ….Brilliant !!
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Interesting.. https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/07/30/news/new-figures-suggest-no-unionist-majority-in-any-of-the-north-s-six-counties-2403573/
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The fact that there is now Nationalist majority in 4 of the 6 counties, is not treated with the importance that it deserves.
PULs in 1921, could have made a moral case for self determination for the northeast or Ireland, which Nationalist would have found difficult to argue with, if it had been based on contiguous Unionist voting Westminster constituencies or Protestant majority wards.
It would afterall, only be a smaller version of the separatism that Irish Nationalists themselves wanted (albeit founded on the even more obnoxious and immoral practice of genocidal invasion and plantation).
It is the creation of the State on those County boundaries, grabbing the two 55% Nationalist counties but forgoing the other three 25 % Protestant Ulster counties, which is the perversion of democracy and the provocation to challenge.
The use of treasonous organisations, including the paramilitary UVF (1912), by Unionist and English Tory politicians and much of the British establishment, both military and civil, in creating an anti-democratic, racist and sectarian state through extreme violence and the threat of worse violence – set the bar to which they were prepared to go to in order to maintain local supremacy over the natives, and the which those oppressed would have to match to free themselves of it.
Through deception, the British and Unionists kept Fermanangh & Tyrone despite the expectations of the Boundary Commission. The injustice inflicted on those 2 counties has now doubled to 4 Counties.
The failed Statelet is even more untenable than before.
It is encumbent upon us all, to end this travesty, as soon as an opportunity can be secured, so that this deadly tragedy does not slip from notice, only to raise it’s fury again, to claim a future generation.
Roll on the referendum.
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I agree with your historical analysis, that Unionists had a right to ‘secede’, but only in areas where they were a majority, consistent with having a border that discommoded the minimum number of people on either side. I would also suggest that as the majority population, that any 50/50 calls should have gone with the green. (Unionists might claim that they were the majority in the then UK, of course).
Ironically if ‘the right thing’ had been done in 1922, we might never have the prospect of reunification.
We can’t wind back the clock, however, & a majority North & South have agreed that a 6 county majority is the only basis of reunification.
No sign of that yet, but as Lenin said, ‘for decades nothing happens, & then in weeks decades happen’
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Oh come off it!
We’ve had a nationalist majority in 4 counties since I was a kid in the 90s.
This isn’t news!
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Yes it is news and I’ll tell you why,
For many years nationalists here had to exile themselves because they had no votes, no housing and no jobs. That was a deliberate policy and now it’s been turned araound, would you disagree
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If you’re right I’ll admit it but back that up against what I’ve just said
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What are you on about?
We’re talking Nationalists having a majority in 4 of the 6 counties in NI and yoy bring up voting riggts and emigration.
I can remember my dad tell my mom at a restaurant in Donegal in the 1990s the exact same fact about Derry Tyrone Fermanagh and Armagh having Nat majorities.
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It’s not news to most of us here, who did the calculations from election results in the mid nineties, but the media never took it up until now.
This may come as another psychological blow to some Unionists who have been blissfully unaware and may act as another motivator to engage in the Unity discussions.
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I don’t think it’s significant because the counties are of extremely unequal size.
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Not sure it’s that important because the counties are very unequally sized.
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That’s not the point.
It’s because they partitioned on a county basis and took 2 nationalist counties, that makes the state of Northern Ireland an anti-democratic, immoral, sectarian and racist affront to the free world.
The recent recognition of the fact, that now 4 of the 6 counties have Nationalist majorities, is highlighting the great colonial swindle to many people, who have never really looked at the formation of NI at gunpoint and therefore it’s legitimacy – both historic and current.
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I think that it’s only important as a marker of demographic change. The counties are historical, formed by Englishmen or their satraps. Their only relevance (in NI at least) now is, ironically in the GAA. (I’m an oval ball man myself, & follow the ancient Provence of Laighin.).
I’m much more interested in how the election predictions pan out.
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Absolutely.
Had only the 4 most loyal counties broken away, then Derry, Armagh, the now majority community in Belfast and the men from the Mournes and the Glens, would all be waiting so much longer to join a free Republic.
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“The only source of transfers for DUP candidates is the TUV.” Not sure I’d agree. They get them from UUP and to a lesser extent from Alliance.
Not sure the focus on SF being “first minister” is considered important in this day and age. The SDLP has good candidates and should do well in Foyle, South Down, South Belfast, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and I think there is a good chance in West Belfast for the SDLP.
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Fair ponts SDLP, the reason that FM is important is because they scraped it in 2019 and many know the majoritorian nonsense is over. What are SDLP doing to develop our situation
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SDLP is doing its best to appeal to a younger more demanding demographic but unfortunately some voters are switching lately to Alliance.
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This article may be of interest to those of you interested in the coming Census results and demographic changes here – https://drb.ie/articles/running-out-of-road/
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It’s OK but mostly speculation. I think best await census for those interested. I think numbers come out 2023. I think demographic change is very slow so best enjoy life now rather than await future.
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The 4 county majority has no importance in itself, but is another indicator (like the schools’ & labour Force surveys) off the inexorable demographic change. Yes Alliance is the flavour du jour, but that too will pass.
When that happens, a principled party, republican in the (Wolfe) Tone sense, may have it’s day in the sun again, & be in the middle of a coalition of forces that bring a UI into being.
I also believe that the slow pace of change, of political unionism’s decline, will minimise resistance, especially violent resistance, to the change, when the tipping point comes.
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Great read. GRMA (go right maith agat) Bangordub
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It’s not just the census figures that tell a tale of decline for Ulster Unionism.
“The Irish News now sells an average of 28,014 papers a day, which equates to around 168,000 copies each week and 8.7 million a year.
The News Letter’s daily circulation has fallen to 9,505 while the Belfast Telegraph is among a number of UK titles which have chosen not to have their paper sales officially audited by the ABC, the body which independently verifies and reports on media performance.”
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/08/20/news/irish-news-again-at-top-of-uk-circulation-charts-2423186/
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The LucidTalk summer poll is now active. It will be interesting to see if all the turmoil within the DUP in the previous 3 months will affect their voter preference.
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Continuing discussion on lowering the voting age to 16 or 17. Jon Tonge writes, “apart from the DUP, the main parties favour votes-at-16”. I think the DUP are probably right from their own point of view – a majority of the younger voters are bound to be Nationalists.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/comment/whether-its-right-to-lower-the-voting-age-the-northern-ireland-assembly-should-decide-40773033.html
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New Lucid Talk Poll For the Belfast Telegraph :
🔷DUP 13% (-3 from May)
🔷SF 25% (no change)
🔷UUP 16% (+2)
🔷TUV 14% (+3)
🔷Alliance 13% (-3)
🔷SDLP 13% (+1)
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Just ye all know, Faha is preparing a blog on the most recent poll which will be published in the next week
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It will be interesting to see how many UUP and TUV seats Faha projects and also how much further SDLP can eat into SF in Foyle, Belfast, and other places where SDLP are getting stronger.
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Where’s that? Neverland West and Upper Narnia?
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SF were down 7% and SDLP up 3% at the last election in 2019.
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That means the SDLP dropped the ball somewhere.
Why did they not get all 7 % available?
Either SF voters stayed at home rather than vote SDLP or Alliance took more than half their gains.
Neither is cause for celebration. The key point is that Nationalism dropped by 4 % !!!
It’s not about SDLP v SF – it’s about the grasping last great chance for unification.
This is not the time for petty rivalry between nationalist parties. We need all of them to be robust and to get the wider Nationalist vote out.
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I resptfully sugest, do the research, your thinking is a bit mad, fpb voting is deliberately imisrepresentative, we all know that
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I should also say strategic vvotingwas obvious
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As a natural SDLP supporter, but primarily a pan nationalist , I am much more interested in how much the SDLP eats into the Alliance vote.
Whereas Sinn Féin in government in Dublin may be crucial for facilitating moves towards a UI, SF in the North antagonises too many people, & can only be one piece of a jigsaw of movements delivering a UI vote (imo)
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It is argued that SF might lose a West Belfast Stormont seat to SDLP if the 2019 Westminster election were to be replicated in the AE. That would be very encouraging if it happened.
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SDLP polled 12% in the last Stormont election. They are up 1%. They will probably need that 1% and maybe more to hold onto the seats they have.
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Remember that is within sampling error at the usual confidence levels. Key thing is doing well in target seats.
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The margin or error applies to all parties.
SF have far more electoral competency than the SDLP so if anyone beats the percentages, it will be them.
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I think you may have some work ahead in the SDLP
Poll/Pobalbhreith: NI Assembly (18-24)
SF: 49%
UUP: 14%
SDLP: 9%
PBP: 9%
AP: 9%
DUP: 5%
GP: 2%
TUV: 2%
AON: 1%
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Bangordub: that cross-break is based on a subsample of size only 123 and hence has a MoE of about 10%.
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I assume that’s Belfast West.
If those numbers hold up then Unionists will take a seat.
If SF’s vote management is as precise as usually is, there could be 4 SF candidates on 12 % and PBP, AP & SDLP on on 9 % with 4 seats to go.
Now that would be an interesting run in!
Lets hope the Unionist vote is lower and the SDLP get their seat (or Aontu if the 10% MoE goes their way!)
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No Paul it’s for 18-24 year olds. Cross breaks are actually too small is sample size to be informative.
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Wow!
The future is most definitely NOT Orange then.
Who’d have thunk it. In few years Norn Iron will be voting like West Belfast !!
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No it’s too small a sample to draw that conclusion.
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Wow!
The future is definitely NOT Orange then.
Who’d have thunk it. Norn Iron will be voting like West Belfast in a few years!
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No, it’s a cross break and a tiny sample of a bit over 100. That conclusion is not possible to draw.
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Ireland Elects Seat Projections for NI Assembly:
SF: 24 (-3)
UUP: 18 (+8)
SDLP: 14 (+2)
TUV: 12 (+11)
DUP: 10 (-18)
AP: 10 (+2)
PBP: 1
GP: 1 (-1)
+/- 2017 election
Encouraging for SDLP . West Belfast and Foyle where else?
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For Minister allocation including FM DFM, I make that
SF 3
UU 2
Alliance 2 incl Justice automatically
SDLP 1
TUV 1
DUP 1
That is if TUV take up a post. If they don’t it goes to UUP.
That makes 4 Nationalist, 4 Unionist and 2 Others. Similar to the way Belfast City Council went.
I am surprised at SDLP taking 2 extra seats for a 1% increase in vote when they over did themselves with 12 previously on the vote they accrued.
This still leaves Nationalism behind Unionism!
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TUV will declline executve office in the turn for the resources and privileges from being the Official Opposition .. and they will relish that Role!.
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