By Faha
A poll was recently published by thedetail.tv covering numerous questions related to Northern Ireland. The actual polling was done by LucidTalk. Two of those questions were specific to a Border Poll.
One question queried that if there were a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should remain in the UK or become part of a United Ireland would you?
The weighted results were:
Remain Part of the UK 46.8%
Part of a United Ireland 45.4%
Undecided 7.8%
There was a narrow majority in favour of remaining in the UK.
Another question was asked which was:
Would you support Irish unity as a pathway back to membership of the EU for Northern Ireland?
The results were:
Yes 47.9%
No 44.8%
Undecided 7.3%
Since Brexit has occurred for the UK, and will be final at the end of this year, it appears that any Border Poll would be in the context of Northern Ireland returning to the EU as part of a United Ireland.
The results showed a 3% plurality for becoming part of a United Ireland. I will explore the results of this question further. The results were broken down by the voter’s political party vote in the 2017 Assembly election and the results were:
Yes No Undecided
Unionist parties 3.7% 91.7% 4.7%
Nationalist parties 91.6% 4.4% 4.0%
Alliance-Green 59% 18% 23%
Non-Voters 43.2% 39.8% 17%
Unsurprisingly, over 90% of unionist voters wish to remain in the UK and over 90% of nationalist voters would vote for a United Ireland.
However, a clear majority of Alliance-Green voters would vote for a United Ireland in order to keep Northern Ireland within the EU. Only 18% would vote to remain in the UK with many undecided. There is also a slight plurality of non-voters who would vote for a United Ireland.
This is significant since a Border Poll would have much higher turnout than an Assembly or Westminster election. The recent Westminster election had a turnout of 800,000. The Scottish independence referendum had a turnout of 85% and a similar turnout for a Border Poll would result in over 1,200,000 voters. SF and the DUP have the most motivated voters and non-voters are generally those who only occasionally vote and appear to have views that are more in line with those of Alliance-Green, SDLP and UUP voters.
Amongst unionist voters most of those who would vote for a United Ireland or are Undecided are UUP voters.
Most of the nationalist voters who would vote to remain in the UK or are Undecided are more likely voters who vote for minor nationalist parties (43%) and to a lesser extent SDLP voters (15%).
Voter preference was also tabulated by religion and the results were:
Yes No Undecided
Protestant 8% 85% 7%
Catholic 88% 7% 5%
Other/None 52.7% 36.1% 11.2%
15% of Protestant voters would vote for a United Ireland or are Undecided.
This is twice as high as that for unionist voters and this would be due to Protestants who vote for Alliance, Green or nationalist parties.
Similarly, the 12% of Catholics who are in favour of remaining in the UK or are Undecided is higher than that for nationalist voters and would be due to Catholics who vote for Alliance, Green or unionist parties.
If the poll results are extrapolated to the party preference vote in the recent Westminster election the results would be identical. However, an actual Border Poll would include EU nationals (who are not permitted to vote in Westminster elections) as well as 16 and 17-year olds (who were permitted to vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum).
EU nationals are 3% of the total electorate and 7% of the voting population. Thus, it appears that a Border Poll would have a narrow majority for a United Ireland, perhaps 51% to 52%.
Should a Border Poll be called at this time?
I would strongly recommend against such a poll at this time. We have already seen how disruptive the Brexit vote was to UK society with a 52% vote in favour of leaving the EU with no idea of what that would actually entail.
We also do not know how Northern Ireland would be integrated into the Republic of Ireland. A 55% or higher majority, and ideally 60%, would be desirable for an United Ireland.
A year from now we will have clearer picture on voter attitudes. Ireland, the UK and EU will be going a through a coronavirus pandemic with unknown consequences on the economy.
There could still be a Hard Brexit late December which could adversely affect the Northern Ireland economy.
Next January, the calling of a Border Poll will need to be seriously considered if voter opinion indicates a clear majority would favour a United Ireland.
One of the great contradictions of Brexit. Unionists wanting it – although it would increase support for a UI and Nationlaists against it even though Brexit would increase support for a UI.
For me the constant rattling about a UI should be put on hold util the Brexit dust has settled and the law should be changed to allow a vote when the majority in Stormo votes for it.
LikeLike
Hi Sammy,
The “constant rattling” as you call it, is now a matter of when, not if. The law is clear on when it will be called unless you’re suggesting a new law be enacted to overule 2 Referenda and an international treaty?
LikeLike
Hi Bangor – keep up the excellent work on your site.
The inevitable Re-United Ireland exposes the fascists like Eoghan Harris and Ruth Dudley Edwards for what they really are.
They simply cannot stand democracy and they would try to destroy the GFA in a flash of lightning if they had the capacity to do so. Fortunately, they do not have that capacity – and that impotence enrages them even more, resulting in even more unhinged, outrageous articles in any medium that is desperate enough to print them.
LikeLike
The reason I use the pejorative term “rattling” is because I think the best way ot to a UI is to let the Brexit dust settle first and see where the land lies.
As the poll above shows responses as to what people want in terms of the consittutional settlement is dependent on Brexit.
So for me it is tactically wrong and pointless to keep ‘rattling’ on about it…
LikeLike
FYI
The site does not let me post when I’m using Google to log in – but does when I use Twitter.,
LikeLike
Hi Sammy,
Yeah, but, we’ve been banging on about the re-unification of Ireland for decades. So coming here, telling us to quieten the rattling is going to be poorly received. At best. Even with the best of intentions. Nor will it have any impact on those who are now talking about it, the very people who only recently were telling us to quieten the rattling.
Now that the UK is busy sawing the branch it’s sitting on and those that ignored us are now talking about, planning for and working to build a United Ireland. You want us to say to them “Look, we know we’ve been trying to get you interested in the UI project for years, but now that you are and the UK is in a shambles, could ye stop for a bit?”
It’s an interesting suggestion and your sales pitch on why it is a good idea to stop talking about the inevitable united Ireland and massive, complicated, generations long re-integration process that only begins after the legal unification should be absolutely fascinating.
LikeLike
to me the contradiction lies between the first and second question above:
Queston 2: “would you support UI if you would otherwise have to leave the EU” – voters: “oh yeah, absolutely”
Question 1: “but this is exactly what happens in reality. without UI, you are out of the EU. now do you want UI?” – voter: “umm, not so sure”
LikeLike
gendjinn,
fair points.
In simple terms I think the rattling is probably counter productvie – Unionists are a stubborn bunch. After Brexit maybe the numbers will be better than now. And with due respect to Faha who does an excellent job – no sooner was the ink dry on the surveys he spoke about then along comes another which is far less positive.
We need to hould our whist…
LikeLike
I think the responses could be viewed as Nationalism putting the economy of NI first while Unionism was following the views of the Union. In that way Nationalism and liberal Unionists ended up on the same side.
LikeLike
Bring it on!
LikeLike
Sammy,
I didn’t think you’d come back with “Nationalists should stop talking about Nationalism because it upsets the Unionists.” but you did. You really did.
LikeLike
Yep hands up you got me…
For me it simply about tactics and the “constant rattle” tactic is a poor one. I just think we need to be a bit smarter and work a bit harder e.g. use the GFA to improve practical links – show how things work better etc.
LikeLike
“Yep hands up you got me…”
These are your words. You could choose to say something else.
It is 22 years on from the signing of the GFA and it’s successes and failures have been sufficiently demonstrated.
Time to get on with removing partition, a century is more than long enough to retain the failure.
5 years ago no one was talking about re-unification. Now it is everywhere. It is easy to see where this is heading and what it means for the continuation of the UK in Ireland.
LikeLike
Question 1 and 2 are distinctive as it depends how you look at the NI protocol.
Unionism will say we are out of the EU but taking advantage of the single market principles at the moment but if a border poll is called, they are liable to revert to we are in the EU in all but name.
It is probably in the Unification project interest if the British balls up the NI protocol completely, not that I would be advising that!
LikeLike
It is now 10 years since the Horseman died and his blog “Ulster’s Doomed”.
LikeLike
Just reading over some of his posts on the 2010 election build up and on the Re-partition background and options.
He really was an excellent analyst. A great loss to us.
He would have been in his element these last few years.. and the next few coming!
LikeLike