LucidTalk conducted a poll of Northern Ireland voters and their Westminster voting preferences from November 27th to November 30th. The poll was commissioned by Electoral Calculus and Remain United. I will discuss some of the findings in this poll.
Compared to the previous poll there are increased percentages of voters who state they are 100% certain to vote. In the previous poll unionist voters were significantly less likely to be 100% certain of voting compared to nationalist voters. However, now the percentages are almost equal between nationalist and unionist voters in the 94% to 95% range. However, Protestant voters are 91% certain to vote and Catholic voters 95% certain to vote.
Westminster voting intentions, excluding nonvoters and undecided (5% of voters), showed the results were:
SF 25.2%
SDLP 13.0%
Alliance 15.6%
UUP 11.6%
DUP 29.6%
Others 5.0%
The Other group includes PBP, Aontu, Independents, Green, UKIP and Conservatives. Over 70% of the vote for Others comes from the Catholic community and only 18% from the Protestant community. This indicates that much of that 5% is PBP, Aontu, Greens and Independents.
If only those 100% certain to vote are included the unionist vote would decrease minimally in the poll. The results are much more influenced by the weighting of the sample. The sample of those 100% certain to vote was weighted by Religion as follows:
Catholic 38.6%
Protestant 39.1%
None/Other 22.4%
The percentage of Catholics and Protestants are therefore equal and this is consistent with an extrapolation of the 2011 Census adding in new voters and removing voters (mainly elderly) who have died.
However, the 22.4% shown as None/Other is much higher than the 11% indicated in the census. The higher sample in the poll could be due to the increasing secular identity in Northern Ireland since 2011. It could also be due to over sampling of None/Other voters. A 22.4% None/Other sample, rather than the 11% indicated in the census, has a significant effect on the poll findings. This is because the Alliance voter preference in the None/Other group is over 40%.
I calculated voter preference based on a None/Other percentage similar to the 11% in the census and Catholic-Protestant percentages in the census. The results are:
SF 26.0%
SDLP 13.3%
Alliance 12.5%
UUP 12.0%
DUP 31.0%
Others 5.2%
The total SF-SDLP vote goes up by 1.1% and the total UUP-DUP vote goes up by 1.8%. The Alliance vote declines by 3%.
Electoral Calculus did do seat predictions but the average number of voters per constituency would be 130 which is too small a sample to give accurate predictions. The 5.2% vote for minor candidates may decrease since there is a tendency for such voters not to waste their vote on election day.
Based on the new poll finding and my adjustment I would conclude that:
The DUP vote will be down significantly from their 36% in 2107.
If this is a uniform decline they will not win in North Down, South Belfast and North Belfast. They could also lose East Belfast and South Antrim and possibly Upper Bann.
The Alliance vote will be up significantly from their 7.9% in 2017. It could be over 50% higher than their 2017 vote. This will probably not be a uniform swing and will most likely be concentrated in North Down, East Belfast, South Belfast and South Antrim. In half the constituencies they will poll 3% to 4%.
The vote for the SDLP, UUP and SF are within the margin of error for their 2017 results. SF may lose 2% of their vote to Aontu but this could only be of significance in Foyle and South Down.
Thanks for that analysis, it is reassuring that I’m not the only one thinking the DUP could lose East Belfast and South Antrim – even if that seems too dramatic a move to happen in this election. Looking at the spreadsheets the last few days I thought I was seeing things.
I think it would take a bad day for the DUP to lose Upper Ban, but this is one of the closest run elections and with several factors of chaos roiling the electorate. One thing I noticed in the LT polling crosstabs was SF has the largest share of the young voter and the lowest share of the older voters, if there’s a weather turnout differential based on age then SF will expect to see a bounce in final results if the weather is as bad as forecast.
It is tipping point territory and this election (or the next) is going to deal a tremendous psychological blow to Unionism when they end up with the same number of, or fewer, MPs than Nationalism. The data driven predictions Faha has made this week, for example the surge in the margin of victory in FST or APNI taking North Down, will unnerve Unionism because it will be the final, unavoidable sign that the demographic tide they’ve denied has now overtaken them, and there is no saving the Union.
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There are some other interesting cross-tabs. Voters were asked which party they voted for in the 2017 Assembly and which party they are voting for this week. The DUP and UUP are losing twice as many voters to non unionist parties than they are gaining from non unionist parties. The losses are mainly to Alliance and the SDLP.
Including some of Sylvia Hermon’s vote in the unionist total in 2017 the total unionist vote was 48%. It would decline to 47% with demographic changes. The poll indicates a net loss of another 2% to non unionist parties (probably due to Brexit). Whether it declines further will depend on turnout. The poll did indicate that those who did not vote in the Assembly election but plan to vote in this election are only voting 20% for unionist parties. So a high turnout of previous non voters would lower the unionist percentage further.
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That Q2 tab is brutal for Unionism alright. The tactical voting tabs are not much better. Both indicate that the alienation of moderate Unionist and the constitutionally neutral voters from the DUP/UUP is well underway with every indication that process will continue unimpeded.
The Hermon vote does tend to inflate the Unionist overall % alright, I don’t break her vote out into N/U components so I had 49% U; 42% N and 8% O for 2017 UK GE. Thinking about your last few posts and comment we could be looking at 45% U; 43% N and 12% O. A result of that nature guarantees an Assembly election. In February. That’s the DUP well and truly forked.
See ye tomorrow for the exciting conclusion!
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For the DUP to lose half of their MPs in one election is far more than even Horseman would have predicted. For these seats to be even on the horizon is, however, hugely significant.
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The tally rumours have the results looking like:
DUP 8
SF 7
SDLP 2
APNI 1
. . .
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In terms of bloc %:
Unionist 43% (DUP 31%, UUP 12%)
Nationalist 40% (SF 25%, SDLP 13%, Aontú 2%)
Others 17% (virtually all Alliance)
Certainly, a Border poll seems inevitable in the 2020s, even if significant work would be required to win over Alliance voters.
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There’s the unanswered question when it comes to it, would 95%+ of SF, SDLP and Aontu supporters actually vote for a UI?
Opinion polls pre-2017 suggest not, though polls since Brexit indicate a significant increase in active support for a UI among nationalist voters.
My hypothesis is that many nominally nationalists and most centrists will support the Union for as long as it provides a good quality of life in NI. No other considerations come into it.
If correct, support for UI in opinion polls should correlate to cuts in services here and visible signs of prosperity in the Republic.
I wonder if a Conservative, English based, government, committed to Brexit, will invest heavily in the North and Scotland.
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Unionism has lost North Down. Not just to the APNI but to the EU. They will vote for EU/UI over Brexit UK led by Johnson. There is now a majority for re-unification in the 6 counties.
NI has about 2 years left. Less if the UDA (hharm or threaten – edit BD)) John Finucane.
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Arlene must go. Demographics are destiny. Gregory Campbell or Edwin Poots for next DUP Leader. Well done to Farry in North Down
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http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/12/14/news/brian-feeney-it-was-unionists-who-punished-the-dup-for-extreme-brexit-policy-1790538/
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Hi BD,
I had a thought for a blog.
We have the 2011 census
Thé 2017 Assembly vote
Mortality rates
Combining that data could we identify DUP Assembly seats in danger due to the passage of time?
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Thanks Nambarrie, good thinking grma
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Peter Donaghy ahead of you! 😉
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https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/15/what-could-the-surge-of-centre-ground-parties-mean-for-a-possible-2020-assembly-election/
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