By Faha
Lord Ashcroft this week released an lgd-20111 (1)Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018 on Brexit, the Border and the Union. 1,666 Northern Ireland voters were polled online from May 24th to May 28th. 3,294 voters in England, Scotland and Wales were polled May 29th to May 31st. 1,500 voters were polled in the Republic of Ireland from May 31st to June 5th.
There was one key question asked of the Northern Ireland voters:
“If there were a Referendum on Irish unification tomorrow, how would you vote?”
49% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
44% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
7% Don’t Know
The breakdown by religion was:
Catholic
5% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
90% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
5% Don’t Know
Protestant
86% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
7% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
7% Don’t Know
No Religion
40% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
48% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
12% Don’t Know
The breakdown by political party was
Sinn Fein
0% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
98% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
1% Don’t Know
SDLP
10% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
78% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
12% Don’t Know
Alliance
30% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
42% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
28% Don’t Know
UUP
90% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
4% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
5% Don’t Know
DUP
97% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
1% for Northern Ireland to Leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland
2% Don’t Know
The findings are almost identical to the Lucid Talk poll which was also conducted on exactly the same dates. The only main difference is that the Undecided are only 7% in the Lord Ashcroft poll versus 12.7% in the Lucid Talk poll. The lower Undecided resulted in an increase from 42% to 44% in those in favour of a United Ireland but it also increased support for staying in the UK from 45% to 49%. Another difference is that Lucid Talk had a slight plurality of those with No Religion who wished to stay in the UK whereas this group has a plurality for a United Ireland in the Lord Ashcroft poll.
The political party preferences are not surprising. It was noted in the focus groups that most Protestant Alliance voters preferred to stay in the UK or were Undecided so the support for a United Ireland among Alliance voters is mainly from their Catholic and No Religion voters.
For Republic of Ireland voters, 9% were not in favour of a United Ireland. 35% would like to see a United Ireland in the next few years. 56% were in favour of a United Ireland but believed it would not be practical or affordable in the next few years. Also 80% of voters would vote to Remain in the EU and 16% would vote to Leave if a Referendum on EU membership was held.
Voters in England, Scotland and Wales had the following views:
28% Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK
57% No opinion or it is up to the people of Northern Ireland to decide
8% Northern Ireland should no longer be a part of the UK.
The Lord Ashcroft poll had an over response from Catholic and No Religion voters as well as Alliance voters. They adjusted their sample to reflect their view of the demographics of Northern Ireland. However, their adjustment resulted in an over representation of Protestant voters. The percentage of Protestant voters was more than 10% higher than that of Catholic voters. The 2011 census showed only a 7% gap and in 2018 that is now only 5%. The 2017 Assembly election confirmed that it is only a 5% gap since the unionist vote was only 3.5% higher than the nationalist vote. Thus, if their weighting reflected the actual demographics of Northern Ireland the Remain in the UK vote would be 46% and the Leave the UK vote 47%.
As with the Lucid Talk poll it is possible to predict the outcome of a Border Poll based on the religion preferences in this poll and extrapolated to the 2019 demographics of Northern Ireland.
In 2019 the voting age demographics of the 16+ age groups among native voters will be:
Catholic 640,000
Protestant 683,000
Other/None 53,000
Based on the Lord Ashcroft poll preferences the vote would be with a 100% turnout.
United Ireland
Catholic 576,000
Protestant 47,810
Other/None 25,440
Total 649,250
Remain in the UK
Catholic 32,000
Protestant 587,380
Other/None 21,200
Total 640,580
Undecided 86,170
With a 100% turnout of native voters there is a slight edge of 8,670 for a United Ireland (less than 1%). Clearly, the Undecided voters will decide the outcome.
There will also be 150,000 ethnic minority voters in 2019 of which 110,000 are from EU countries. Since support for remaining in the UK is near zero for these voters if they were to vote a United Ireland vote would win by 140,000. That would be a margin of 10%.
It is clear that the impending Brexit has resulted in a surge of support for a United Ireland. This is mainly from Catholics and those with No Religion but there has also been an increase in among Protestant voters.
By October of 2018, and certainly no later than December, the final nature of Brexit will be known.
"We in coming days may be" 
Will non citizens have a vote in a constitutional matter? I wouldn’t expect so (and indeed would be very unhappy if our recent referenduma (age showing) were decided by expatriate voters).
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Foreign nationals (including EU nationals) were allowed to vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
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Catholic
90% for Northern Ireland to Stay in the UK
That first statement- is that a typo?
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1st draft and was corrected within 5 mins but well spotted
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There is an article in the BBC and elsewhere today that Airbus stated it may leave the UK in the event of a hard Brexit. You will see more announcements like this in the future from other companies. For those in Northern Ireland who currently would vote to stay in the UK it may come down to deciding if they want to be unemployed or do they want to stay in the UK. Jean-Claude Juncker gave a speech in the Dail yesterday in which he indicated that a no deal Brexit is increasingly likely and that the current UK negotiating position on the border is unacceptable. Anyone want to take bets on the date of a Border Poll in 2019 ?
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To be fair NI will stay in the Single Market and Customs union so it will not affect it.
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Watched spotlight that was on earlier in the week. It was very frustrating that on the United Ireland debate Noel Thompson only mentioned the 21% support from the ridiculously flawed ipsos mori poll. No mention at all of either of the recent lucidtalk polls or this lord ashcroft poll. It allowed Peter Weir to continuously lie and say every poll on the subject shows overwhelming support for staying in the UK. Even more frustrating was Niall O Donnghaile not challenging anything. The icing on the cake was the FG representative claiming there shouldnt be a poll in 35 yrs – christ even Peter Robinson would have them more frequently than that. These polls dont get much coverage in the general media so was amazed that Niall didnt use the opportunity to quote the figures over and over again, it would have been easy point scoring against the smug Weir.
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Very impressed by all the changes taking place – Sinn Féin deserve a lot of credit for all this as Mary Lou takes the party in a new direction with SF rising in the polls. It is now plausible to see SF in power with FG (not just FF) and shaping policy in terms of women’s rights, trans/nonbinary rights, and the LGBTQI+ rights right across the island.
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Can you expand on where you obtain the 150k ethnic minority voters and 110k EU voters? I can only find 40k to 70k EU voters over the last decade.
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The numbers are from the “Northern Ireland Migrant access to Benefits” publication issued by the Northern Ireland Department of Communities as of July 2017. There were 161,000 foreign nationals who have been issued NiNo registrations who currently have an address within Northern Ireland. After removing the 31,000 from the Republic of Ireland there were 130,000 foreign nationals of which 95,000 were from European counties (excluding the UK). That 130,000 does not include Chinese from Hong Kong and any ethnic nationals born in the UK who are now adults which is no more than another 5,000. Also not included are any adult foreign nationals who have not registered for a NiNo. So the number for July 2017 is at least 135,000. In- migration of foreign nationals (mainly EU) is continuing at a rate of over 10,000 per year which means that by 2019 the number will be 150,000. They did record a net increase of 5,000 from July 2016 (156,00) to July 2017(161,000).
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Thanks for the info. Interesting that these figures diverge so significantly from those the NI Census reports and projects.
Looking at the electoral register for WM/LG/Ass/EU the numbers appear to explained solely by NI born nor is there much of a variance in the size of the register for any of these elections. Is there any indication that these EU migrants are registered to vote and if not would they be able to register in time to vote in a border poll? In a Brexit context the polls indicate these would be solid UI voters so ensuring they are registered and turning out will be important.
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If you compare the Westminster electorate with the Assembly electorate for June 2018 there are 32,500 more voters for Assembly elections. Those extra voters are entirely EU nationals who are not UK citizens and who are not allowed to vote in Westminster elections. I looked at the register prior to the 2017 election and there were perhaps another 3,000 EU citizens who are also UK citizens who are on the register. So I estimate that at that time only 40% of EU nationals were on the register. Of the estimated 25,000 foreign nationals from Asia and Africa more than half were on the register. With online voter registration now in place as of last week it should be easier to increase those numbers. Also if there is a Border Poll next year I imagine there will be a surge of interest among EU nationals since obviously Brexit affects them more than the native Irish.
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I missed that EU citizens can vote in WM, I was thinking it was solely EU which makes comparison of electorate between years much harder.
We are certainly in neck & neck territory with Brexit pushing a UI win over the line in a border poll. One can see the zeitgeist is aware and Unionism is firmly in the bargaining phase – a poll would raise tensions, 50%+1 would raise tensions, we need X,Y, or Z to happen prior to considering a UI, along with the old chestnut “Sure isn’t NI such an economic basket case that you could not afford us!”.
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Mary Lou has done a good job so far heading up Sinn Féin. It seems to me that she has been able to widen the appeal of the party.
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Now focused on womens rights and healthcare, on trans rights and anti-austerity, Sinn Féin’s position in the polls is on the up. Expect Sinn Féin to be in government soon. That will terrify the conservative forces in our island and push forward change.
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Very disappointed to see violence attacking Gerry Adams house.
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https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/ian-paisley-could-lose-north-antrim-seat-if-10-of-voters-sign-petition-of-recall-37131241.html
Anybody on here from North Antrim and want to get rid of Paisley junior as your MP.
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The SDLP candidate in North Antrim is worthy of support.
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I suspect there’ll be a high degree of tactical voting, consolidating around the better placed candidates.
SF were runners up last time, so if anything, SDLP voters might be tempted to loan their votes in that direction.
I can’t see Nationalists loaning votes to the TUV, in what would be a clear case of the cure being worse than the affliction.
Could a UUP or Alliance Candidate be found that could attract support from all sides, to oust the rogueish son and heir?
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I think the SDLP really do stand a better chance than SF given the well known problems and internal factions of SF in North Antrim. SF have a weak candidate there.
SDLP have a very admirable gay candidate who deserves praise for coming out.
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I agree, very brave to come out as supporting the SDLP!
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The SDLP may benefit more broadly from selecting a ‘flavour of the month’ gay candidate, but it is also a clear signal that they have no intention of trying to be the lightning rod that attracts the disillusioned of N. Antrim and unseats IPJ.
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https://www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/irish-people-united-ireland-referendum-poll
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