By Faha
A few days ago the BBC published a Lucid Talk poll conducted in Northern Ireland in May. The poll was 156 pages long and covered many aspects of society in Northern 
Ireland. One of the questions asked was:
If there was a referendum on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote?
The results were:
Remain-Vote for Northern Ireland to stay within the United Kingdom
45.0%
Leave-Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland
42.1%
Undecided
12.7%
The results by Religion were:
Protestant
Remain- 78.5%
Leave- 8.5%
Undecided- 13.0%
Catholic
Remain- 7.2%
Leave- 84.3%
Undecided- 8.1%
Other/None
Remain- 39.8%
Leave- 36.4%
Undecided- 23.3%
Clearly the result of a Border Poll would be very close. Compared to the previous Lucid Talk poll in December 2017, the percentage of Protestants in favour of an United Ireland is unchanged but the percentage in favour of remaining in the UK has declined from 85.3% to 78.5% with that 6.8% difference now Undecided voters. The percentage of Catholic voters who desire a United Ireland has declined from 90% to 84.3% with the difference added to Undecided voters.
The poll also broke down preferences according to national identity and these closely correlated with the religion question (i.e: many Protestants identify as British but few Catholics do). There was a small group (1%) of voters who have an identity of EU or non EU ethnic minorities and their preference was:
Remain- 6.7%
Leave- 80.0%
Undecided- 13.3%
Voters were also asked how Brexit influences their choice for remaining in the UK or joining a United Ireland. The questions asked were:
Protestants:
Yes, I used to support NI staying in the UK but I may/would now support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
21.0%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI staying in the UK.
74.3%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
1.1%
Clearly Brexit has had a significant effect on the views of Protestants towards a United Ireland. Support for a United Ireland was less than 2% prior to Brexit but now 21% of Protestants are considering a United Ireland. In the Border Referendum question most those 21% are either Undecided or in favour of a United Ireland. The results were not broken down by political party preference but based on the previous poll a majority of that 21% are Protestants who vote Alliance/Green/ SDLP/Independent.
The results for Catholics were:
Yes, I used to support NI staying in the UK but I may/would now support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
31%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI staying in the UK.
4.7%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
61.4%
Prior to Brexit, almost 1/3 of Catholics were content to remain in the UK. However, most of those are now in favour of a United Ireland or Undecided.
These are the results for those with Other/ None religion.
Yes, I used to support NI staying in the UK but I may/would now support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
41.3%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI staying in the UK.
30.6%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
17.0%
Brexit has shifted a large percentage of these voters towards a United Ireland
The results for EU and non EU ethnic minorities were:
Yes, I used to support NI staying in the UK but I may/would now support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
53.3%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI staying in the UK.
0%
No, the EU Referendum result has hasn’t changed my view, I still support NI joining the Republic of Ireland
40.0%
Clearly, Brexit has resulted in a complete collapse in support among ethnic minorities for remaining in the UK.
Lucid Talk has been very accurate in their recent polls. In the 2016 Assembly election they predicted a total nationalist vote of only 38% to 39% which was widely scoffed at prior to the election since it showed a mark decline in the nationalist vote despite a rising nationalist voting age population. The subsequent election results showed the poll was almost 100% accurate. The Lucid Talk poll for the EU referendum in Northern Ireland in June 2016 was accurate to within 1%. Their poll for the 2017 Assembly election predicted a resurgence of the nationalist vote and a significant decline in the unionist vote which was borne out by the actual results with the unionist parties in a minority for the first time ever in an election in Northern Ireland.
However, there are 3 flaws in the Lucid Talk poll, all of which are related to demographics. Lucid Talk has no control over 2 of these. Their sample only contains 1% who identify as ethnic minorities. Recent data on foreign nationals with NiNO registrations residing in Northern Ireland indicate that the ethnic minority voting age population is in the 9% to 10% range. Of course, many of these are less connected to Northern Ireland or have limited English language skills so they are difficult to find for an opinion poll. They currently comprise 4.5% of the electoral register, half their actual numbers in the population. Since the poll showed that support for remaining within the UK is 0% among this group the poll is underestimating the percentage vote for a United Ireland depending on the turnout among these voters, which would certainly be higher than the 1% included in the poll.
The 2nd flaw relates to the Religion composition of those polled. Lucid Talk has Other/None as 15.4% of the voters. The 2011 census has a question which included Religion brought up in and this group was only 5.4% so the poll has this group 10% higher. This question was not asked in the poll. The census would show approximately 10.4% Other/None by the Lucid Talk criteria so the 15.4% still overestimates this group. The constituency results should have each constituency contributing 5.5% to their sample. Three constituencies in the West (Foyle, Mid Ulster and West Tyrone) were less than 4% of the sample whereas South Belfast was 11.4%, East Belfast 8.9% and East Antrim 7.3%. Since the Other/None are quite high in these latter 3 this explains why the Lucid Talk poll is overestimating the Other/None group.
The poll sample comprised the following:
Protestant 46.0%
Catholic 38.6%
Other/None 15.4%
The gap between Protestants and Catholics is 7.4%. Including “secular” Catholic and Protestants (> 70% Protestant and <30% Catholic in the census) the gap would be 11.0%. The census shows the actual gap among native voters should be 5% to 6%. So the sample is overestimating voters from a Protestant background.
The sampling issue is not a problem for predicting the results of a Border Poll Referendum in 2019 since we know the preferences by religious background.
This is what the voter demographic profile of native voters in Northern Ireland will be in 2019 post the March 2019 Brexit. This is based on the 2011 census and assumes a voting age of 16 which was the voting age allowed for the Scottish Independence Referendum. Adjustments are made for emigration which shows a continuing exodus of native youth.
In 2019 the voting age demographics of the 16+ age groups among native voters will be:
Catholic 640,000
Protestant 683,000
Other/None 53,000
Based on the Poll preferences the vote would be with a 100% turnout.
United Ireland
Catholic 539,520
Protestant 58,055
Other/None 19,292
Total 616,867
Remain in the UK
Catholic 46,080
Protestant 536,155
Other/None 21,094
Total 603,329
Undecided 155,804
With a 100% turnout of native voters there is a slight edge of 13,538 for a United Ireland (only 1%). Clearly, the Undecided voters will decide the outcome. More than half the Undecided are from a Protestant background so the 13,538 margin for a United Ireland could be completely wiped out.
There will be 150,000 ethnic minority voters in 2019 of which 110,000 are from EU countries. Since support for remaining in the UK is near zero for these voters if they were to vote a United Ireland vote would win by 140,000. That would be a margin of 10%.
The results of this Lucid Talk poll indicates that there should be a Border Referendum in 2019 post Brexit. Those political parties in favour of a United Ireland need to put forward proposals for how Northern Ireland would be integrated into the Republic of Ireland. There is also much tactical work that need to be accomplished. This includes lowering the voting age to 16 and putting on the electoral register the 90,000 foreign nationals who are currently not registered to vote. With the implementation of online voter registration in Northern Ireland this month this should be easier to accomplish.
"We in coming days may be" 
Barring a Westminster snap election next May’s locals might give us an idea where we are at. Nationalism had a poor performance in 2014, apathy prevailed. Can the nationalist parties keep the voters engaged, or will we just leave that to Arlene.
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excellent analysis – thought provoking. Charting the way though to a yes vote will not be easy
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I think that we should give Arlene a hand, although I agree she may not need it. It seems to me (perhaps wishfully) that a sense of the inevitability of of a UI is becoming more real.
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I agree Muiris. Just look at the graphic regarding the under 45’s
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Thanks BD. I meant to add that I always look forward to your analyses of polls & demographic statistics. (We could form a ‘mutual admiration society’, but you may have commitment issues 😀)
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https://i1.wp.com/bangordub.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/lt-2018-under-45.jpg?ssl=1&w=450
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All of this is interesting and gets us to the point of a poll but I believe the real fun begins when we get an Taoiseach, who ever it is to get behind a vote. Once the southern government goes for it then the opinions will shift more than Brexit. I do think we can persuade plenty of soft unionists to support healing the country finally once and for all.
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The following comment has been submitted by a reader who wishes to remain anonymous:
“Brexit is the key factor.
Without that demographics would not come into play for 15 years or more. Border Poll can only be called if SoS believes that a majority would support change.
If hard Brexit and no assembly then BP within 5 years.
Significant numbers of soft unionists, Alliance, Greens etc would vote for change.”
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I worry that people are projecting on Brexit so much. It seems part of the English trap to view nationality based on economics rather than cultural cohesion. I’m Irish, rich or poor. We will end up being bought repeatedly like the Scots. I don’t think I’ve ever heard an Englishman frame his nationality in terms of how wealthy the country is. The argument should be much more than Brexit. It’s a trap!
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The polling was conducted in May before the Abortion Referendum. My feeling is that the result will boost support for a UI particularly in the under 45 protestant demographic.
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There has been several opinion polls of late which show certain trends which I think are noticeable and notice worthy
-Brexit has made many persons reassess their support for the Union
-Support for the Union is much stronger in older age groups
-Support for a united Ireland is much stronger in the younger age groups
-People’s opinions can be swayed by economic factors
-Many (most?) nationalists are reluctant to voice their nationalism
Looking at anecdotes we have the following
-From Mike Nesbitt, Eamonn Mallie and the late Denis Bradley certain unionists have countenanced a united Ireland / support for the Union
-From Mallie, certain unionists have directly engaged with Dublin
-From Leo Varadkar’s comments, it is clear Dublin understand that things are changing as regards support for a united Ireland but has not taken any action
-From the leaked reports from the UK Cabinet, London realises that things are changing also
Applying some fairly basis analysis I conclude the following
-There will not be a referendum on a united Ireland this side of Brexit (29 March 2019)
-There will not be a referendum so long as the DUP lend support to the Conservative government
-The Irish Government will not use Brexit negotiations to advance a referendum
Applying some more speculative analysis I conclude the following
-London will avoid calling for a referendum unless support for nationalist parties surpasses unionist parties in an actual election (opinion polls won’t count)
-The local government election in May 2019 will be a good day for Unionism because turn out will be low, which plays to unionism’s strength
–The usual suspects will be then out in force to say a united Ireland is off the cards and the Union is safe.
It is impossible to account for Brexit. It will be either apocolyptic for the UK and the North or it will be a damp squib.
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Do you think the next census might drive any decisions or do we just wait for a Labour government who might favour one?
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I do not think the 2021 census will directly influence the SoS / NIO’s thinking on calling a referendum.
To do so would be to officially correlate Nationalist with Catholic and set policy on that basis. I’m no lawyer, but I’m not sure that religion alone would be a lawful basis to make any government decision. Even if the inevitable court case found the decision lawful, politically it’s a difficult policy to defend.
As for waiting for a Labour SoS, I’m not so sure that that would be necessary. It is the law that the SoS must call a referendum if it appears likely to pass.
While a Labour SoS may set the likely-to-pass bar a bit lower than a Conservative, ultimately they both must use the same criteria: election results.
The only difference I could envisage is deciding if a referendum is called when nationalist votes surpass Unionists votes only or if nationalism must be greater than Unionism + constitutional neutrals (Alliance, Greens, PBP, some independents, etc).
Just being pragmatic, the NIO would probably try and split the difference and trigger a referendum when nationalism out polls unionism combined with supportive secondary evidence like opinion polls and Alliance politicians declaring their support for a referendum/ shared Ireland.
As I said above however Brexit makes sensible predictions impossible.
Even in a best case Brexit scenario, May has declared her intention to increase taxes and spend the Brexit dividend on health. A corollary of that policy is that the EU single farm payment cannot be matched by Westminster.
That ends farming as a viable prospect in the North and will increase food costs for consumers.
Nor would there be scope to increase the budget for a education, welfare, roads etc. Or to promote business relocation to the North via grants.
In that scenario you would have to fear that the bridge from Antrim to Scotland would not be built.
How long would soft nationalists tolerate that before voting for parties dedicated to the end of partition? How long for neutrals; how long for soft Unionists?
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A new poll by Lord Ashcroft Polls has revealed 44 percent of Northern Irish residents would vote in favour of quitting the UK and joining the Republic if a referendum was held tomorrow.
Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would vote to stay in the UK while seven percent said they did not know how they would vote.
Pollsters, who interviewed 1,666 Northern Irish adults between May 24 and 28, revealed even those who opposed a united Ireland believed a referendum would eventually be held.
Lord Ashcroft Polls said in the full report: “More than half of DUP voters said there should never be a referendum but fewer than one in five of them thought there never would be.
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Any link?
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/976386/brexit-news-ireland-irish-border-northern-ireland-lord-ashcroft-polls
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https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit-the-border-and-the-union/
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