Lucid Talk today released the first findings of their February 2018 tracking poll.
I thought it worth doing a quick blog on these findings as they reveal some very interesting facts.
Below are two of the charts published by Lucid Talk, the first is an age grouping breakdown:
The second graphic shows us the overall effect of the above and a comparison with results in September 2017:
This is fascinating stuff, In the first graphic we can see that SF have a lead of 9.5% over the DUP in the under 44 category and Nationalist parties (SF & SDLP) have a full 10% lead over the main unionist parties (UUP and DUP).
In the older age cohort the figures are a lead of 10.2% for DUP over SF and 13.7 for Unionism (35.3% vs 49%)
This is massive electoral change coming down the line for political unionism and it’s a one way direction of travel.
Turning our attention to the second graphic which combines the results to give us a prediction as to voting intentions and the changes over a six month period the figures are equally startling.
There is a swing from DUP to SF of 3.1%, in the context of politics here, that is significant. I am sure the drop in support for the DUP will be much speculated upon over the coming days.
Using the above figures, the total Unionist vote (DUP/UUP/TUV and PUP) translates into 46.6%, well short of a majority. The total Nationalist vote (SF/ SDLP/ PBP) is 42.7%.
A swing to nationalist parties of 0.6% since September.
How this would translate into actual seats of course depends on the geographic spread of the votes and how motivated voters are in an actual election.
This poll demonstrates the continuing trends established in last years elections and the potential growth of the nationalist parties in the years ahead. For political unionism, while they continue to beat their tribal drums and resort to the dog whistling of the past, they are faced only with decline.
As events of the past two weeks demonstrate, Unionism keeps repeating the mistakes of it’s past. Walking out of the talks process was a colossal strategic error, lying about the circumstances in which that happened compounded that error and failure to have any idea about what to do next exposes their lack of vision and planning for the future.
The failure to be honest with their electorate is why their base was so woefully unprepared for the deal on restoration of Stormont. The above poll demonstrates that they are now managing the decline of unionism. Denial will only increase the shock to unionist voters as this process rolls out in the years ahead.
Like their allies in the Brexiteer brigade, they may have acted in haste but will have plenty of time to repent at leisure.
This is only going one way.
"We in coming days may be" 
BD, jam tomorrow – as usual – but now looking more likely to actually get eaten.
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Indeed Sammy,
Remind me of the last time unionism walked away from a negotiation and came back with a better result?
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…unfortunately 1921
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Looking like that historical anomaly may be getting reversed sooner than we thought, thanks to Brexit among other things
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The problem is getting those younger nationalist voters out to vote. AE17 and GE17 were a start but how much of that was a reaction to the DUP, etc. poking the sleeping green bear? Can they be relied on in the future if the incentive is not there or will we have to wait another two or three decades for the demographic change to kick in among the age categories most likely to vote?
Though, to coin a phrase, in a referendum nationalists only have to be lucky once; unionists have to be lucky every time.
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I think that two factors are influencing younger voters to come out,
Brexit and the continuing denial of equality rights – there is a clear divide on these issues between the unionist parties and everybody else and younger voters are very motivated on these issues.
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I’m not sure how things are like in the North but the UK as a whole is dreadful at getting younger voters out. From the Warwick Study
“Britain has the worst youth voter turnout problem in the OECD. At the last general election, there was a 37 percentage point gap between over-55 and under-35 turnout. This is the biggest gap in the OECD, and it is worse than the second-worst by a long way: British young adults appear to be unusually turned off by the democratic process. At a national and European level, younger generations of British citizens risk being short-changed by policy makers as a result of their absence from the ballot box, and there is no indication that their turnout will improve as they get older”.
things are considerably better in the Republic. More details charts etc on my blog
http://www.progressivepulse.org/general-election-2017/low-youth-voter-turnout-and-the-warwick-study
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@An Sionnach Fionn, the main problem facing Irish Catholics in this juridiction is of having to carry the burden of decades of prior (and current) discrimination, carried out by their British Protestant neighbours, across all aspects of society. It is not easy for a population to emerge from such grotesque and inhuman maltreatment without showing the scars. In my opinion the psychological damage done to the Irish Catholic population since partition may never truely be known. And it is not likely that we will ever get an official apology or acknowledgement from our British Protestant neighbours for what their forebears did, and what their current leaders are doing. On the contrary, it seems like we are having deja-vue as regards the reaction of many British Protestants to the quite meager Gaelic Language demands that SF made at the last “negotiations”. Hopefully the EU will take a more engaged and robust role as a result of Brexit, and in so doing may put increasing economic and international pressure on the London Regime to treat Irish Catholics with the respect they deserve. In such an atmosphere, Irish Catholics in this state may finally ditch the shackles of victimhood and progress as a people.
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The younger Nationalist vote will only increase. My two youngest daughter’s are more political now than they ever were. They’ve only started voting in the last few elections, even though they are in their mid thirties. Constant DUP dirty deals and open bitterness from Arlene Foster towards LGBT and anything Irish has changed everything. Brexit has also been a bigger influence on the younger generation too.
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I think this boost to Sinn Féin reflects the positive leadership of Mary Lou McDonald.
It is often forgotten that people in the north tend to like the all Ireland aspect of Sinn Féin so that a Dublin-based leader is not a handicap for Sinn Féin’s prospects in the north. In fact I think it is probably very much a positive.
She did a very good TV interview on the Late Late Show that impressed many swing voters.
There may be a Dail election which could see SF in government.
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I don’t see any evidence of a bounce in Sf in the south – the polls seem to indicate the reverse.
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Just voted my post up – please accept my apologies.
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Lol, No problem Croteir,
As it happens I agree with your point – BD
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You are wrong. SF have increased in the polls in the twenty six counties.
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Deborah, can you link to, or provide evidence of this?
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I don’t have time to do that.
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No bounce yet anyway and with the economy buzzing there’s little scope for SF to make large gains. However an average of the last four polls puts SF at a solid 17% which is three points above the GE 16. Suchva result would deliver approx 30 seats.
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https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0317/948275-opinion-poll-sinn-fein/
This poll says that, since Mary Lou McDonald taking over at the top, SF has had a boost.
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Many thanks for sharing that Deborah,
Your point is much stronger when supported by evidence, it’s the first poll I’ve seen showing a bounce south of the border
BD
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Todays SBP REDC poll shows SF up 2 percentage points as a result of Mary Lous leadership of SF.
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Another very good poll for SF showing that Mary Lou is generating a bounce factor:
B&A Sunday Times Poll:
FG33(+1) FF25(-2) SF21(+2) Lab6(nc) Oth10 GRN2 SD1 Renua1 Sol1
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‘Deborah’
There used to be a poster on this site called “factual” a few years ago.
Used to post similar unsourced guff for SF with a rose-tinted zeal that wpuld make the SF press office blush.
You wouldn’t happen to have anything to do with that account ‘Factual ‘ ? I mean, ‘Deborah’ 😉
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No, not me.
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There are a great many in the Republic who would be happy to welcome moderate unionists into our political institutions as fellow Europeans in preference to SF. Those of us old enough to remember SF know it as an organisation implacably opposed to the legitimacy of the Irish state and intent on its overthrow. It exists as a reaction to unionism and the denial of equality in NI. After Irish unity it will have as much further reason to exist as UKIP after brexit. That said, I’d also be happy for FF and FG to disappear too. They are tweedledum and tweedledee. As for the DUP… well, the kindest thing to say that they are making mistakes and shouldn’t be interrupted.
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Mary Lou has worked hard for all.
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Good post Sam.J. As Sammy Mc posted, our jam (seems to be) coming home to roost (I love mixed metaphors) much faster than demographics suggested.. There was an article on Slugger ( am I allowed mention another site BD?) that ‘Other’ was a bigger group than either ‘Unionist’ or ‘Nationalist. This group doesn’t seem to vote in Assembly nor Westminister elections, but maybe this Lucid poll is some evidence it it’s existence.. As Lenin once said ( yes, I have quoted him before) ‘For decades nothing happens, then in weeks, decades happen’
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( am I allowed mention another site BD?) – Indeed you are Muiris,
I know Mick Fealty well as it happens and I’ve written for Slugger in the past
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BD,
Mick seems to have shifted his position from constant attacks on SF and GA in particular, to a more general alignment with DUP sentiments.
Next time you see him, would you see if you can find a large lump on his head or failing that, discreetly enquire if he’s suffered any major trauma lately. Nervous breakdown, conversion to Free Presbyterianism, that kind of thing.
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Sam.
Like the moderate unionists that you and others in the South wish to welcome in, Sinn Fein are also your fellow Europeans, and indeed, seem much more enthusiastic about EU membership, than even moderate Unionists.
Unlike those moderate Unionists however, SF have not established and supported an undemocratic and violently sectarian state or turned a blind eye to the abuses or discarded the oppressed population within it.
South Dublin’s professional classes certainly wished those impoverished, nordy, whingers would disappear so they could get on with the ‘admirable’ pursuit of wealth through photocopying UK Standards and Regulations helpfully passed on from their NI & UK peers and fellow elites.
Their unbridled aping of the English aristocracy from the ‘liberated’ Georgian mansions, while they ponder their next decampment to the Cotswolds or Harrods, between vacuous searches for a scintilla of Anglo-Irish ancestry which might justify some long forgotten hereditary title, leads many of the ordinary southerners feeling like the awoken animals, looking through the window at Napoleon and the pigs and not being able to differentiate them from the overthrown Farmer.
It will be more than unfortunate, if we allow those same Pillars of Society from north and south (or FG and UUP) to carve up the wealth of the new nation at the expense of those doing the donkey work.
It is appalling to think that those, who have for self gain, enthusiastically collaborated in the denial of democracy and the rights of NI’s minority, now sense the great injustice will soon be reversed and are positioning themselves and looking for allies, to perpetuate the economic aspect of the Great Partition Swindle.
I am more in agreement with the second part of your post.
It would be such a positive and healthy way to start a new State, if ALL of the old parties of the Island disbanded themselves and their then redundant baggage and we could have a fresh start with political parties modeled for and missioned with, the future requirements of it’s citizens.
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I think you missed the point about SF having been hell bent on the overthrow of the state. Some of us have long memories. The moderate nationalists can (and hopefully will) abandon them when there are alternatives and no tears will be shed. They will be the constitutional nationalists, not the bosom friends of the IRA. In case I haven’t been clear, I repudiate SF and all its works and stand ready to extend the hand of friendship to its enemies. Your guff about South Dublin’s professional classes is laughable and speaks loudly of a chip on your shoulder.
I don’t for a moment absolve the unionists in NI for their historical responsibility for discrimination against the minority there or any other crimes, but if we are to avoid a replay of the past the cycle of violence and recrimination needs to be broken. We have a choice in the Republic whether to accept a border poll in favour of unity or not. I think it’s important that unionists feel welcome and I would welcome them, quite genuinely. It may stick in your gut that cosmopolitan liberals in the Republic have plenty in common with their counterparts in NI. I’d say it’s more a matter of being literate, well traveled, nondenominational, pro -EU etc. than shopping at Harrods (what a pathetic but revealing jibe).
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@P, it is quite clear you have no understanding of Irish history or reality. The partition of Ireland was a criminal and purely sectarian act carried out by a British colonial power that paved the way for decades of unrest on this island, and was the seed that lead to the eruption of violence during ‘The Troubles’. It created two colonial sectarian states: the ‘Free State’ and the ‘Orange state’. The minority Protestant population that remained in the ‘Free State’ became marginalised and the larger Catholic population in the ‘Orange State’ was systematically discriminated and dehumanised in all aspects of society. The main beneficiary to this calamity was the British Tory party that used its support for the ‘Unionist Cause’ to remove the Liberal Party as the dominant party in British politics. Many unionists, and possibly a majority, today long for the return of the ‘Orange State’ in some form or other. Indeed, in their deluded view of reality, they are under the misapprehension that because of the Tory-DUP pact, they might usher in a revised ‘Orange State’. To accuse SF, the IRA,and by inference their many voters that they alone are the cause of the conflict in the Six Counties is a propaganda statement that could have been pulled directly from a MI6 ‘republican counter-insurgency’ briefing. When partition is ended (and it will end sooner than you think) both the ‘Republic of Ireland’ and ‘Northern Ireland’ will both come to an end and a new unitary state will be created. The idea that the Six Counties will be appended onto the ‘Republic of Ireland’ is preposterous and inane. To embrace unionism, which at its very core is sectarian, as friends shows a blatant disregard for the generations of Irish Catholics that suffered outragous ill-treatment from their unionist neighbours. The next time you meet with one of your many unionist friends ask them why it was that their forebears treated Catholic ex-British Servicemen from WW1 and WW2 which such derision because of their religion, despite the fact they fought and died in larger numbers than their Protestants/Unionist neighbours to secure their British freedoms.
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Sam/P,
You seem to have missed the point that when a UI comes – it WILL be the overthrow of the State, – by popular demand, with Republicans leading the way.
The regurgitating of idiotic scaremongering of ‘Shinners seizing power against the wishes of the people’ may be what Sunday Independent readers wish to believe, but it is below the level of discourse were used to here.
I’m so glad you were amused by my regaling of the witterings of the South Dublin Professional classes. I try to keep it just to a wry smile when such pearls pass their lips.
While I think it is a gross miscalculation to equate moderate unionists with non-denominational, EU loving, cosmopolitan liberals, it may well be true that they are as well traveled, as their S. Dublin counterparts.
Indeed I only used the Harrods example to retain the UK-D4 theme, otherwise I would have highlighted the squandering of small fortunes on Handbags and Shoes etc. from Paris and Rome’s Fashion shops and the indulgent shopping trips to New York, while so many of their fellow citizens suffer the ravages of poverty, just out of sight – if you don’t look too closely.
It may be interesting for you to know that many SF voters are also well traveled though
probably more familiar with the Sites in Birmingham or Boston than the sights of Biaritz or the Bahamas.
Of course we bow to your superior literacy as well as that of our unionist betters, however, I would like to bring to your attention that increasing numbers of us are able to BOTH read AND write.
By the way, if you regard being non denominational or non religious as being the ‘right type’ of person with whom to be acquainted, you will be disappointed to learn that many Republicans, much more than your nicely pidgeon-holed, constitutional Catholics, – have long ago thrown off the yoke of the Church in favour of truth finding and free thinking.
At least we’ll have something in common, should we find ourselves adjacently seated at the Horse Show.
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Steady on lads (& ladesses). I agree with embracing unionists, but not unionism of course. However, a united country would be almost pointless, unless both states are shaken up, and society rededicated to the common good, ie that the new state is more than just the sum of its parts.
I was reared with Catholic guilt, which I reject. I don’t wish to impose colonial guilt on my (ex) unionist compatriots.
As Lincoln said of his enemies ‘If you were born where they were born, and you were taught, what they were taught, you would believe what they believe’. This applies to you & me also, naturally.
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Muiris,
Lincolns words are very true, however for clarity, it is worth noting that his and his enemies taught views, though difficult to escape, are not necessarily equal and one may well be largely correct while the other may be almost indefensible.
Discrimination, Imperialism, Colonialism, Plantationism, Slavery, Genocide all spring to mind as examples from our history with those of a differently taught mind.
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Completely accepted Paul, bit still sincerely held views.
I also agree with Willie D’a comment that most Protestants in rural & urban slums both were used as electoral cannon fodder, to keep their ‘betters’ in power. A Unionist equivelant to the ‘poor white trash’ in the US, perhaps.
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Absolutely sincerely held and deeply entwined with a sense of identity and community, which is why it’s so difficult to change minds without a major change of scenery such as a period abroad or a Brexit catastrophe.
Yes, it’s encouraging to read Willie D’s contribution and to see that so many ordinary unionists, recognise the way in which their past political leaders have tried to manipulate them with very unsatisfactory results.
Given the support of the DUP, I am concerned that so many unionists seem to be choosing to follow their charge head-first into a cul de sac.
I know that there are more than enough reasonable unionists who in the right circumstances, may be open to persuasion on UI, but it one has to wonder when Arlene and Nigel promise they can hold back the tide, what will be the outcome when their supporters realise they’ve been duped ?
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As someone from a unionist background I can assure Mark Smart that, apart from maybe a few in the ranks of the T.U.V., very few Unionists have any desire to return to the old “Orange State,” which after all ended in 1972, almost half a century ago. Power sharing with Nationalists has long been accepted as the only feasible form of government, as has the fact that under the G.F.A. our future will be decided by a referendum, if there’s a majority for a United Ireland, then that’s what we’ll have. So the onus is now on Irish Nationalists to persuade enough of the present unionist community to vote for that outcome. Based on some of the posts on this site this might be quite a difficult task, though I might suggest that Muiris is put in charge of the campaign, rather than Mark.
While I fully accept that the old unionist regime discriminated against the then Catholic minority, most ordinary Protestants/unionists shared the socio-economic conditions of their Catholic neighbours and would simply not have had the power, or the inclination, to inflict “inhuman maltreatment” on these neighbours. I was born in the mid-1950’s in a farmhouse with no inside water supply, no electricity and naturally no inside toilet or bathroom, my mother from a family of landless labourers lived in even more primitive conditions. Most of our Catholic neighbours shared this lifestyle, my uncle rented his house from a Catholic farmer, there was a kind of rural communalism, which meant people helped each other irrespective of their religious or political background. People from both tribes had much more in common than what divided them, but, of course, the old Unionist government had a vested interest in promoting a feeling of spurious superiority, through the aegis of such organisations as the Orange Order.. But really the idea that every Protestant was out there maltreating his neighbours is ludicrous.
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Thanks for that Willie,
Genuinely interesting and honest comment
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The SDLP have never had anything against people like you Willie D. I respect you and the deeply held positions of people in the unionist community. As John Hume said it is about respecting both sides.
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Willie D: I would like to reassure you that the values of Mark Smart are not the values of the SDLP.
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I’m sure Mark Smart will be greatly relieved to hear that his values are are not just at the level of the SDLP.
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I would also like to distance myself from the views Marc has expressed.
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Deborah & SDLP Act – ND,
Which of the points that Mark raised do you either disagree with or think are factually incorrect?
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They are broadly unacceptable in the context of Sinn Féin’s peace strategy and I distance myself from them.
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Deborah,
Are you speaking for Sinn Fein ?
I suspect not, and if not, nobody really cares what you distance yourself from, especially when you can’t answer the question, other than with unsubstantiated phrases such as ‘broadly unacceptable’.
The days of using Blair-ite spin to avoid answering questions and to bury the truth and demonise those who speak it, have long since passed, particularly as the consequences of such arrogant folly, is now unleashed in the populist movements of the UK and USA.
For those reasons, I find the mixture of your automated party propaganda selling and the blind, deaf and dumb response to questioning, to be ‘broadly unacceptable’ and the more ‘distance’ you can put between me and them, the better I’d like it.
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Paul G: No of course I don’t speak for Sinn Féin. But I think that Marc’s comments are not something that I as a SF supporter would endorse in the context of the GFA. By the way it’s great to see that a month in Mary Lou McDonald has added 2% to SF’s REDC poll.
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By the way Paul G it is great to see those b@$t@#d$ in FF falling in this poll after the c#@p they have brought to our country.
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Deborah,
Yes, good to see SF polling well and the FF chancers slipping down.
Of course there’s a time for burying the hatchet and getting on with things, but then there’s also a time for being very frank and truthful.
In the context of the DUP’s attempt to dispose of any parts of the GFA which Nationalists had traded for, it is surely the right time to remind Unionists of their shameful past treatment of the minority, of their current dishonest attempts to welch on the deal they’ve signed up for and to bluntly let them know that nothing short of full equality and honouring of past agreements, will be accepted for the restoration of Stormont with a discredited DUP first minister.
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Lucid Talk released the detailed results from their February poll and the results for younger voters (18 to 44 ) in an Assembly election were very interesting.
Nationalist parties (SF, SDLP, PBP) 50%
Unionist parties 40%
Alliance-Green 10%
This is the future and every age cohort that reaches age 18 will have at least this high a preference for nationalist parties in future elections.
For voters 45 and older the results are
Nationalist parties 36.5%
Unionist parties 54%
Alliance-Green 9.5%
A large gap between the unionist and nationalist vote among older voters but those are the voters that are slowly disappearing from the electorate.
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Still time to respond to the Boundary Commission’s revised proposals if you have not done so already.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/25/brexit-ireland-troubles-border-sunday-essay?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Can polotical parties in NI ever shake off the baggage of their cultural start points? I’m going to take the path of least resistance and say No.
No because there do not yet exist the conditions, in wider society, where you can be a nationalist and openly support an economic policy that is protectionist, or unionist and champion human rights. Of course there aee individuals but no movement within political blocs to force the issue.
So we see voting patterns continue of the sectarian headcount lines as there is no leadership from above or pressure from below that does not drive the DUP and SF away from their own destruction.
You might wonder why I say SF, when it seems they shall be victorious in their goal of becoming the largest party on a consistent basis within a decade? In my opinion, it is due to their inability to provide leadership when in a position of strength at the local level and they will repeat the DUP pattern from Castlereagh Council through to Stormont.
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For live tweeting of #SDLP18 see Seamas da Faoite’s excellent twitter timeline also tune in tonight for live coverage on BBC2.
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Seamas de Faoite’s twitter: @SeamasBelfast
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I see Conall McDevitt, formerly of your parish, is making a fool of himself again.
It is of course disappointing, though not surprising, that he has an Ulster Rugby season ticket, – supporting the training game of the Public School Colonial Imperialists, with it’s focus on thinly disguised legal violence, it’s outdated ‘might is right’ ethos and it’s structure of social exclusion designed to keep the working classes separate on sporting occasions, helping to ensure that wealth and opportunity do not filter down.
Perhaps that’s the main reason why Conall is there, shmoozing the old school tie Brigade for scraps from the table.
It seem his Socialist mask has joined the Nationalist mask in the dustbin of fads and fashion.
To think, that he was to be the saviour of the SDLP…. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
The flawed judgement criteria, where inuendo and spin is favoured over truth and fact, has typified the response of many to this case.
The Marketing maestro is now refusing to return to Ravenhill unless Jackson and Olding are barred from playing. Given the nature of his resignation from the SDLP, it is surprising that his return to the limelight is in the guise of a moral finger wagger.
I never thought I’d be defending middle class, S.Belfast, rugger bugger, prods, whose circles, probably include legal eagles who’ve helped put away many an innocent Nationalist. The fact remains however, that they are innocent of any crime and Conall, the Feminazi’s and their Mangina followers are demanding that the final unjust nail be put in the coffin of these innocent (though hardly model gents, not untypical of their peers) young men’s careers, having already had their lives ruined, socially and financially.
I wouldn’t disagree with any of the 5 points raised by Women’s Aid, but victimising innocent people, to further your own agenda, while defending an accuser who attempted to have innocent people locked away, is indefensible and deeply cynical and disturbing.
In this centenary year of the achievement of votes for Women, one wonders if Countess Markievich was conducting a review, would she be impressed when faced with the lack of logic, honesty or justice displayed by those protesters seeking to hound out these innocent men.
The fact that those protesting think that it is acceptable to ignore a legal trial judgement and to try to effect mob justice (or injustice in this case) is indicative of the sense of immunity that many liberal and self-righteous pressure groups now have.
When society in general, or institutions or clubs or a governing body in this case, discard the ‘just decision’ and cave in to the hysterical, irrational mob, incited by a biased and self important media, the consequences may be felt in fractured and seemingly not directly related ways, as the silent majority seeks respite from the irrational and the pathologically liberal fundamentalists.
Cometh the hour, cometh the clown, enter Farage, enter Trump… who will we end up with?
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Paul & others: SDLP conference leader speech on BBC2 at 6.30pm.
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OK SDLP that’s enough unless you want to pay me advertising rates 😉
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Whatever happened to the right of expression for minority voices?
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Thank you Gaygael.
Your abusive response, although since deleted (or perhaps withdrawn as unbefitting a Green Party candidate or any candidate for that matter), could not have proved my point any better, – that many liberal, self righteous pressure groups, feel immune to the rules governing the rest of us and feel justified in shouting down anyone who dares voice an opinion that’s not on their ‘approved’ list.
Please BD, do not feel the need to moderate any abuse thrown my way.
As a grown up and a believer in free speech, I can deal with any arrangement of wording directed at me. I certainly wouldn’t like to add to the growing list of words that our Liberal elites have told us are Verbotten, or invoke the censorship and information control methods they have borrowed from their supposed totalitarian and fascist foes (or perhaps mirror images might be a better description).
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Paul, it was me that deleted the comment. Not because you couldn’t handle it but because it was well beyond the boundaries of acceptable comment here
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Sad to see that the moderators here censoring opinion. Gaygael is a very reasonable person and his voice should be heard.
Shameful.
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Deborah, did you read the comment? This is my site a chara and all opinions are welcome but I will delete any abusive, personal or insulting comments. The comment in question was out of character for Gaygael who is, in other respects a very welcome contributor. I do not censor opinion’s. I will delete unacceptable comments though
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damn, i’ve missed it. Thanks for the tip though.
That could have been our last ever chance to see an SDLP conference !
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Another poll shows that SF is on the up after Mary Lou takes over:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fine-gael-succeeds-by-keeping-distance-between-economy-and-abortion-1.3465985
FG – 34% (-3)
FF – 26% (+1)
SF – 22% (+3)
Lab – 5% (+1)
GP – 3% (NC)
Sol/PBP – 2% (NC)
SD – 1% (NC)
IA – 1% (NC)
This is the best rating for SF in a long time as the Irish Times notes
“For Sinn Féin and Mary Lou McDonald, the honeymoon has just begun. Sinn Féin is up three points to 22 per cent while McDonald’s first satisfaction score comes in at 39 per cent: a healthy improvement of 12 points on her predecessor Gerry Adams’s rating in January.”
Excellent for Sinn Féin
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It is indeed Deborah, I tweeted that early this morning but thanks for supporting your opinion with evidence. that’s how it’s done
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506
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Well done BD. I have no time for comments playing the man (or woman), and little time for sites tolerating such comments. I left my last school ground many years ago, and have no wish to endure that level of ‘debate’ again.
As for that ‘colonial’ sport rugby, I will be at Lansdowne Rd today, supporting my native province. I will support any team, in any code, from this island, against a team from off the island. If you want the English off this island, take it out of your own head first. Táim féin lán sásta leanúint ar aghaidh leis on pléigh seo I mo theanga dhúchais, as seo amach.
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Muiris,
I’d love to take you up on your invitation to discus ‘as Gaeilge’, and the point is well made, but unfortunately at my old school, we spent too much time playing Rugby and not enough time learning the language they almost killed off.
Despite the bad taste left by the disgraceful abuse of position by some of the Rugger Teachers, to further their careers at the expense of students careers, and the recognition that Rugby is relatively ‘low skill’ compared to soccer, I can neither deny nor resist lure of the passion and intoxicating atmosphere of an International at Lansdowne Rd.
They haven’t yet hooked me at club/province level but good luck today anyway.
Incidentally Jude Collins has piece today on question of whether certain players should be picked or sacked and who should make the decision.
http://www.judecollins.com/2018/04/rugby-rape-enough-already/
It’s a complex question, obviously sponsors need to protect their brand and their customers have an opinion on where their money ends up, but if the sponsor is too easily pressured by small groups with media backing, justice is unlikely to result.
A false perception of justice – spun by a powerful and guided media, becomes the new reality while, truth and justice and victims are quietly ushered away. A technique all too familiar for Nationalists during the conflict.
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The demographic numbers are so close now, but there may still be many twists and turns remaining on the journey back to a UI.
What definitely will happen, and very soon, will be a nationalist voting majority.
How will Arlene and the Dupers deal with that?
Obviously they’re trying to defer it through Gerrymandering of constituency boundaries and disingenuous attempts to woo apolitical Catholics, but ultimately she will have to accept being deputy to Michelle or else dump Power Sharing for Direct Rule, to mask the reality of their position.
Or maybe Arlene will prefer to emigrate rather than suffer the indignity of living in a land of equals…
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grma (go raibh maith agat)
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Bangordub has in fact deleted my posts too and simply because I praised the SDLP.
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If you think that’s bad, how will you feel when Calum deletes the party?
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https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/alban-maginness-irish-unification-no-longer-a-question-of-if-but-how-soon-unionists-need-to-wake-up-36840456.html
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Good to see Alban still has a bit of Nationalism in him.
Maybe there’s a future and a place somewhere for the SDLP yet.
The South Dublin & Limerick Party perhaps.
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Hauld on there Paul, I’m from South Dublin. I agree this was an interesting column and unexpected from the SDLP. I’d be interested in hearing from our resident SDLP supporter fro North Down on it? (As opposed to saying the SDLP are brilliant repeatedly which is why I deleted the comments due to repetition without adding anything to the debate)
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I tuned into the BBC program The View last night. Must say that Daniel McCrossan MLA (SDLP) was a very impressive performer.
I was not impressed at all by the poor performance of two of the other candidates namely the SF and DUP candidates who appeared weak.
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Why? What did he say that impressed you? Then we’ll have a point to discuss rather than a pointless opinion
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I strongly recommend watching it on catch-up.
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May I ask your age?
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Bangordub that is a questionable thing to ask. Regarding the SDLP v SF in the context of Brexit the comments of Daniel McCrossan MLA were very pertinent. Clearly the better of the two candidates.
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Fascinating poll out tonight showing a decline in the FG vote.
—
SBP/Red C Poll 29th April
FG 32% (-1)
FF 25% (+1)
SF 14% (-2)
Ind 13% (+2)
Lab 6% (-)
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Very encouraged overall by Sinn Féin’s performance in the polls in recent times. Taken together they indicate that Mary Lou is resonating with the voters.
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West Tyrone results are now in.
SF -4.3 percentage points relative to 2017
SDLP +4.8 percentage points relative to 2017.
Well done to the SDLP team in West Tyrone. Best percentage result since 2001.
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They should have done better.
Still trying to detect a pulse..
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Nothing here for Sinn Féin to worry about. The nationalist people in the six counties put their support in Sinn Féin because Sinn Féin is by far the better party. Standing up for the vulnerable, women’s rights, gay lesbian and transgender rights, and all those who are in economic need.
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Important. New poll from Sunday Independent out today conducted by Milward Browne. Shows the Mary Lou effect:
FG 34% (-2)
Ff 27% (-1)
@sinnfeinireland 22% (+2)
Lab 5% (+1)
IA 5% (+1)
Green 3% (+1)
Sol/PBP 1% (-1)
Ind’s 2%
Very encouraging poll for Sinn Féin.
Also: Poll says Mary Lou more approved than Micheal Martin.
All of this is excellent news for Sinn Féin and shows that Mary Lou has had a massive bounce for SF in the polls.
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