Faha’s take on Lucid Talk’s most recent poll on Brexit and a Border Poll
In the previous 2 weeks there has been much publicity over the pending part 2 negotiations between the EU and the UK government. The 3 issues that needed to be resolved before moving from part 1 to part 2 were the size of the UK monetary settlement that the UK would owe to the EU, EU citizen rights within the UK, and the nature of the border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland.
The Northern Ireland-Irish border proved to be the most contentious issue but after much controversy the issue was fudged and negotiations will proceed from part 1 to part 2 next week.
What received little publicity during this past week was the release of a Lucid Talk poll on Brexit and a Border Poll. A previous poll on this had been done in October so why was another done so soon? Apparently the GUE/NGL group within the EU parliament commissioned Lucid Talk to conduct a poll on Brexit and a Border Poll in order to determine the current views of Northern Ireland voters on these issues. The EU needs this information in order to develop a negotiating strategy based on the wishes of the population of Northern Ireland. What the EU already knows is that Northern Ireland, in the June 2016 Brexit referendum, voted 56% Remain and 44% Leave. Apparently they wish to confirm if there have been any changes in the view of Northern Ireland voters.
The poll was commissioned by the GUE/NGL parliamentary group and conducted by Lucid Talk. Over 3,000 voters from the Lucid Talk panel responded and a final total of almost 2,100 was included based on the demographics of Northern Ireland. The following were some of the more significant results.
One question asked was whether Northern Ireland should have a special status which would include remaining in the EU Customs Union and EU Single Market. The results for all voters were:
Special Status-Stay in EU Customs Union and EU Single Market
Yes 57.8%
No 39.6%
No Opinion 2.5%
Results by Political Party Nationalist Unionist Other
Yes 97.7% 12.0% 87.7%
No 1.7% 83.7% 9.5%
Results by Religion Catholic Protestant Other/None
Yes 94.8% 21.7% 67.3%
No 4.6% 74.0% 30.5%
Obviously there is huge difference between Nationalist- Alliance/Green voters and Unionist voters with the former 2 groups overwhelmingly in favour of Special Status and Unionist voters overwhelmingly opposed. Not surprisingly, Catholic voters overwhelmingly prefer Special Status and Other/None favour Special Status by a 2 to 1 margin. There is a significant percentage of Protestant voters, 21.7%, who also prefer Special Status. The 74% of Protestants who oppose Special Status is exactly the same percentage that voted Leave in the Brexit Referendum. Overall, less than 40% of all voters are opposed to Special Status while 57.8% are in favour. The percentage in favour of Special Status is slightly higher than the 56% of voters who voted Remain in the Brexit Referendum.
A question on a Border Poll was also asked. Voters were asked how they would vote if there was a Hard Brexit with no deal on the Border or the Good Friday agreement or citizen (? EU citizen) rights. The 2 choices were Remain in the EU by joining the Irish Republic in a United Ireland or Leave the EU and stay in the UK. The results were (excluding nonvoters)
Remain in EU-United Ireland
48.2%
Leave the EU-Stay in the UK
45.7%
Undecided
6.1%
Results by Political Party Nationalist Unionist Other
Remain in EU-United Ireland 94.5% 2.2% 56.9%
Leave the EU-Stay in the UK 1.9% 95.0% 14.5%
Undecided 3.6% 2.4% 25.1%
Results by Religion Catholic Protestant Other
Remain in EU-United Ireland 90.0% 8.1% 54.9%
Leave the EU-Stay in the UK 5.1% 85.3% 33.7%
Undecided 4.8% 5.6% 10.2%
Results by Age 18 to 44 45+
Remain in EU-United Ireland 57.1% 37.8%
Leave the EU-Stay in the UK 37.4% 54.4%
Undecided 4.9% 7.2%
What is remarkable is that there is a plurality of 2.5% who are in favour of a United Ireland with a Hard Brexit. No previous poll in the previous 100 years has ever shown this result.
However, in the October Lucid Talk poll they estimated a 46.4% vote in favour of a United Ireland with a Hard Brexit and 53.6% to Remain the UK. What has changed since the October poll is that most of the Undecided (10%) and Soft Remainers (5.5%) have opted for a United Ireland which is consistent with their preference with a Hard Brexit. The preference for a United Ireland had a base of 34% with a Soft Brexit or no Brexit. There was another group of soft Remainers (10%) who were not further questioned in October on their preferences with a Hard Brexit and some of these appear to be undecided with a Hard Brexit.
The breakdown by Religion and political party is unsurprising when looking at the unionist-nationalist and Catholic-Protestant preferences. However, support for a United Ireland among Protestants has increased from 4.6% to 8.1% because most of the Protestant undecided have opted for a United Ireland with a Hard Brexit. There has also been a significant shift among Catholics who preferred to stay in the UK with a Hard Brexit. This group was 12% in October but now it is 5.1% stay in the UK and 4.8% undecided so it appears that half of Catholics (the 12%) who wished to stay in the UK with a Hard Brexit in October are now undecided or in favour of a United Ireland. Younger voters (age 18 to 44) are strongly in favour of a United Ireland by a 20% margin. The main reason that a United Ireland has a plurality is that support for staying in the UK with a Hard Brexit has collapsed to only 14.5% among Alliance-Green voters with a clear majority of 56.9% in favour of a United Ireland.
What are the implications of all of this?
The EU is aware that Northern Ireland voted 56% to Remain in the EU in June 2016 and that in December 2017 58% wish to remain in the EU Customs Union and Single Market. The support for leaving the EU Customs Union and Single Market is less than 40%. Therefore, the EU should acknowledge the wishes of the Northern Ireland people and negotiate an agreement with the UK that includes a Northern Ireland that essentially remains in the EU. This is irrespective of what the remainder of the UK negotiates with the EU. The Republic of Ireland and certain political parties within Northern Ireland, including SF, the SDLP, Alliance and Green parties, should support this negotiating position since their voters in Northern Ireland also overwhelmingly support Northern Ireland remaining fully within the EU.
An outsider reading about this whole situation in the previous 2 weeks could conclude that Arlene Foster and the DUP are representing Northern Ireland in the Brexit negotiations. Yet their views are held by less than 40% of Northern Ireland voters. In the coming year it is essential that the non unionist parties represent the views of the majority of Northern Ireland voters who wish to remain in the EU in all negotiations with the EU.
Now it is true that if the UK did agree to allow Northern Ireland to remain in the EU Customs Union and Single Market that the DUP would strongly object and threaten to withdraw their support for the Conservative government and thus collapse that government. However, if that occurs then a Border Poll should be called. A Border Poll may be the best options if negotiations are deadlocked over a final agreement. The EU, Republic of Ireland and non unionist Northern Ireland parties should not allow a DUP or unionist veto in any agreement.
The results of a Border Poll would be much more in favour of a United Ireland than the 2.5% margin that exists in this recent poll. In an actual Border Poll 16 and 17 year olds should be allowed to vote. The demographics of that age group and the fact that younger voters strongly favour a United Ireland would result in a 65% vote in favour of a United Ireland in that age group which would increase the margin to 3.5%.
The Undecided group is currently 6.1% but that group consists of 4% None/Other and 1% Catholic and only 1% Protestant. That is a demographic profile that is unlikely to aid the stay in the UK vote. This poll includes very few foreign nationals. There were 1% included in the poll that did not identify their identity as British, Irish, Northern Irish or some combination. That group would have included some who identified as Scottish, English, Welsh as well as some actual foreign nationals. That 1% broke down to 76% for a United Ireland and 19% to remain in the UK. If only actual foreign nationals were counted support for a United Ireland would actually exceed 90%. Since foreign nationals are potentially 10% of the electorate the actual margin of victory for a United Ireland could exceed 55%.
It is time for the political parties in Northern Ireland that favour a United Ireland to begin negotiations with the EU and the Republic of Ireland on integrating Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland and including a potential Border Poll in negotiations with the UK.
"We in coming days may be" 
Seems the Brexit winter has killed off the Catholic Unicorns! If I was Foster I’d be hoping that any new assembly election is a long way off. Presuming Stormont ever reappears.
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These are incredible numbers given that the conversation on Unity hasn’t really begun properly. We still await FF’s Unity paper, for example. The simple act of calling a Referendum will compel Nationalist parties of all stripes to come up with more detailed plans.
An Sionnach Fionn mentions future Stormont elections. God knows what the future of that institution may be, but it’s imperative that Nationalist parties get their nose ahead electorally as soon as possible. It may be the only way to force the Secretary of State’s hand and bring about a Border Poll.
“In an actual Border Poll 16 and 17 year olds should be allowed to vote.”
That was the case in the Scottish Independence Referendum. It would influence the result and for that reason would be massively resisted by Unionism.
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What needs to happen – and it requires SF to be really flexible here and look at the bigger picture – is for a whole-island re-unification movement to form. From such a movement we could perhaps get people in the North to stand in elections on a purely “reunite the island” platform. This might mean, as I say, that SF, the SDLP etc. need to join forces. with FF, FG, the Greens, Irish Labour (maybe the Alliance, too). It can only work and snowball with unity on this common cause.
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… my proposal would also kill off the DUP/Unionism’s predictable SF bogeyman argument at birth. To an international audience this would be a wholly new, fresh, vibrant, positive movement totally unconnected to the past – and that is crucial when the eyes of the world will be looking.
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There have been some comments in the media questioning whether the Lucid Talk poll is representative of the Northern Ireland population The poll also asked a question on voting preference if an Assembly election were held. The results were:
DUP 33.7%
UUP 8.9%
TUV-UKIP-PUP-Conservatives 2.1%
Total Unionist 44.7%
Assembly 2017 unionist vote 44.7%
So their sample of unionist voters is exactly identical to the unionist vote in the 2017 Assembly election. There has been a significant shift from the UUP and other unionist parties to the DUP.
For nationalist parties the voting preference was:
SF 32.8%
SDLP 8.6%
PBP 1.1%
Total Nationalist 42.5%
Assembly 2017 nationalist vote 42.0%
Their sample of nationalist voters is almost identical to the nationalist vote in the 2017 Assembly election and there has been a significant shift from the SDLP to SF.
The poll also found that for Alliance Green voters in the 18 to 44 age group that 68.3% would vote for a United Ireland and only 7.7% would vote to Remain the the UK. Younger Alliance Green voters have essentially become nationalists if there is a Hard Brexit. It is the collapse in support for remaining in the UK among Alliance-Green voters and Catholics that has resulted in a plurality in favour of a United Ireland.
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I saw on twitter lucid talk getting dogs abuse about this poll. Political heavy weights such as Bryson and Beaker sorry Stalford declaring it garbage. Lucid talk responded with the same stats you did and pointed out that if 3/4 of Alliance and Green vote EU/UI then hey presto you have the results and is that so unbelievable considering how pro-remain the centre ground is. Unionism just buries head in sand as usual and it will be its undoing. They also explained that even though the poll was commissioned by a left leaning EU group inc SF their polling is always non- bias and uses the same pool of people for questioning. The usual suspects over on slugger have been ridiculing the poll at every opportunity and yet take every previous poll as gospel. Interesting that a poll that asks if you want a UI with your breakfast is fine but one that actually looks at the very real possible scenario of a hard brexit is garbage hmm. A popular believe is that tens of thousands of atheists (lapsed protestants) in North Down and East Belfast will rally to save the union. Shame all these people couldn’t fill in their census forms correctly about community background or maybe just maybe they don’t exist. One of the guys that spouts this rot works with stats double hmm.
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http://www.itv.com/news/utv/2017-12-11/campaigner-to-challenge-irish-state-over-border-poll/
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Found this from your archives Bangordub, The oracle at Delphi couldn’t have predicted Better the effect of Brexit on Reinvigorating the unity debate!
navanmeath on August 22, 2014 at 5:55 pm
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To get things moving there’s needs to be momentum. Something really big or a series of game changer events that builds and turns into mass support. Some milestones that that show a trend in one direction.
This will increase support as the general public what to be associated with success. Up on a bandwagon!
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There is some further interesting data in the poll. Their religious sample was 45% Protestant, 40% Catholic and 15% None/Other. The 5% gap between Protestant and Catholic is exactly what the census would show in 2017. This would be a 3% gap in 2019 with demographic changes and including 16 and 17 year olds. The census compiles religion in 2 separate ways. They have a category that includes “Religion brought up In” and by that categorization the None (raised in No Religion) group is only 3.5% of the voting age population and 1% Other. The other manner of categorization does not include “Religion brought up In” so the None group is 10.5% in the census but there are more than twice as many None who were raised Protestant than Catholic. If the Lucid Talk poll sample mirrors the census then the
15 % in their poll who are None/Other would be 1% Other, 3.5% None, 7% raised Protestant and 3.5% raised Catholic. The poll shows that this entire 15% group was 8.5% in favour of a United Ireland, 5% in favour of remaining in the UK, and 1.5% Undecided. Even if 4% of that 5% in favour of remaining in the UK are secular Protestants, it is evidence that support for remaining in the UK among secular Protestants is quite low (perhaps only half). These younger secular Protestants have a much different view of a United Ireland than religious Protestants. Since there are twice as many secular Protestants than secular Catholics this shows that the Lucid Talk poll is overestimating Protestants in their sample but only secular Protestants. The 2.5% plurality in favour of a United Ireland would actually be 4.5% if the sample exactly matched the voting age demographics.
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I realise this is purely guesswork but assuming a soft brexit emerges are you thinking pro UI drops back to early 40s or less in percentage? Is the best bet then to give demographics a bit more time to emerge in say 2025?
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I assume that support for a United Ireland would drop to the 40% range with a soft Brexit. A soft Brexit would have all the UK remain in the Customs Union and Single Market. How likely is this to occur? The EU is unlikely to agree to this since the UK would have all the trade benefits of remaining in the EU but none of the responsibilities. No requirement to contribute money to the EU and restrictions on migration of EU nationals to the UK. This would set a terrible precedent for the EU. EU countries could leave the EU and keep all the trade benefits but could restrict immigration and have no financial commitments to the EU. I expect that EU negotiators will take a hard line with the UK in order to discourage any other EU countries from considering leaving the EU.
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Yes think I agree. Unfortunately the best chance for a UI is actually if the North get hit hard by Brexit. Not a nice thing to be wishing for but I guess it was Farage and his crew that have got us into this mess.
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Super work, Bangordub and Faha.
I think what this data shows is that the brute numerical conditions now exist for a referendum on unity to be won.
What’s perhaps missing is a campaign to bring that referendum about, and to create the necessary momentum to make sure it gets over the line. Sinn Féin can’t do this and mustn’t be left to try. It needs to be broad-based, non-partisan, encompassing right and left, and focusing on the unanswerable economic, social and political advantages of unity over partition and British rule.
Could the 200 who signed the letter the other day represent the stirrings of just such a campaign?
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Maybe someone should start a petition online calling on the Secretary of State to call a border poll.
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Not a bad idea but unlikely to prod him into action.
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We need to recruit Alliance party and greens and PBP voters as well as independent left wing types. Make them realise that a United Ireland is the only route to a United Europe.
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Why not petition the House of Commons for a debate on a United Ireland?
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/check
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Interesting article in Der Spiegel by Jorg Schindler “Britain Grows Increasingly Hostile to EU citizens” http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/as-brexit-nears-harrassment-of-eu-citizens-in-uk-rises-a-1181845.html
After reading this article I seriously doubt that EU countries will be in any mood to grant any concessions to the UK in the upcoming negotiations.
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Hoping that FAHA is going to do some analysis of the leaked new boundaries.
Early scan from me suggests Lady Sylvia gone and DUP safer than ever in east, south and north Belfast and that segment of Shankill moving into West Belfast helps with a shout at an Assembly seat?
Looking forward to Assembly projections on these!
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http://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/northern-ireland_uk_5a4d0d92e4b0df0de8b06eaf
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And on the subject of border polls… https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/bill-white/bill-white-unionists-need-to-turn-on-the-charm-with-alliance-voters-to-ensure-border-poll-goes-their-way-36470662.html
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Barry McElduff’s antics wont have helped attracting Protestants to vote for UI any time soon. He really should have been more aware.
If was anyone else I wouldn’t believe them, but I think everyone knows that Barry just doesn’t have that kind of nastiness in him.
Shame on Politicians and Journos who insist on seeing everything Republican linked, through jaundiced eyes to justify their own prejudices.
They are the ones who are disrespecting the victims and retarding the chances of a resolution to the political impasse. I wouldn’t expect anything better from the DUP but journalists now seem to think that their job is expressing outrage and disgust and determining approved standards of morality that their editors have been passed down from the State(s) actors.
The Public, the Truth, the prospects for political agreement, reconciliation and stability, would all be better served if the lackey journos, took off their anti-Sinn Fein filtered specs and did some actual investigative journalism instead.
They could do worse than finding out why RUC Special Branch and MI5 were running the Glennane & N Armagh UVF gangs, with particular focus on the months leading up to the O’Dowd, Reavey and Kingsmill murders, to question why these State actors were actively colluding in the mass murder of Catholics in and around Armagh, and whether these pillars of society were not just attempting to collapse the Ceasefire and Peace talks between the UK Government and the IRA, but also to spark a civil war which would allow them to utilise UDR and RUC weapons and training to achieve the ethnic cleansing of Catholics from the North, as former Glennane UVF member and RUC officer Weir has admitted.
How high up did it go and what positions did those RUC and Mi5 ‘civil servants’ rise to?
Would peace have been reached sooner if the media had informed Protestants of the truth rather than collaborating in the state sponsored illusion of anti-state terrorism versus upstanding, brave, moral, law abiding members of the State Security Forces protecting the whole public with out fear or favour, blind to religion, cultural or ethnic background ?
Those are questions REAL journalists would be asking, not what brand of Bread did Barry McElduff have on his head and how minutes before the 42nd anniversary was it?
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It’s a pity Barry didn’t resign from Sinn Fein instead and keep his Westminster seat, thus freeing him up to vote at Westminster and reduce the Tory-DUP axis by one.
That would have been just deserts for the DUP hypocrites.
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Mcelduff had to go no matter what his intention shame unionsts politicians never feel obliged to do the same whether its racism, sectarianism, homophobia or just utter incompetence. Interesting to see the bel tel have a poll on whether MoM should resign for the retweet which he apologised for but not a peep about stalford and his tweet which he didnt apologise for. Should we take it as some sort of back handed compliment that nationalists need to comply with a higher level of standards or something.
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https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-seat-axed-in-new-northern-ireland-constituency-boundary-map-36498725.html
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The previous proposals were better for nationalists with both North Belfast and the new Upper Bann looking good for SF. This looks like it reduces the damage for DUP who will pretty much lose out no matter what way the boundaries are redrawn
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On second look it actually looks unbelievably brilliant for the DUP. In fact they couldn’t have drawn it better if they did it themselves lol.
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Want to be sole Unionist representatives their eyes on Sylvia Hermon’s seat.
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Hi,
Faha is aware of this development.
The difficulty here is that this is a leaked map, nothing more, although it was seen on the Boundary Commission website briefly. The next deadline for their official response is on January 30th.
I have no doubt that if they came up with anything approximating that map, there will be political revolution in the air.
It would be a complete travesty and would be an obvious indication of political (Tory/ DUP) interference in their work outwith the public consultation process.
I don’t believe the PA just happened to be browsing and screenshotting the Boundary Commission website at the same time this was being “tested”.
Perhaps somebody is flying a Kite here?
I wonder who?
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Perhaps as Bangordub suggests this map is kite flying. Maybe it is one of various options on table for consideration? With that in mind however reading again from the provisional proposals report:
“In addition, where appropriate and as far as practicable within the Rules, the Commission has taken into consideration the six long-established county boundaries; and for Belfast, the City Council boundary.” This leaked map clearly does not do that.
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So looking back at the provisional proposals report Chapter 3 Rules and General Principles.
“Subject to the absolute requirement of the quota range, the Commission has taken into account:
• special geographical considerations
• any local ties that would be broken by its proposed changes
The special geographical considerations include the size, shape and accessibility of proposed
constituencies; mountains, passes, lakes and main rivers; and the integrity of built-up areas.
The Commission has sought to:
• create manageable shapes
• include at least one significant town in each constituency
• respect organic communities.”
Now with the revisions see that Tyrone takes a significant chunk of East Derry
aren’t Sperrins in the way? Also the Causeway constituency crossing the River Bann.
It would be of more sense to retain the proposed Glenshane constituency due to existing road links between Dungiven and Magherafelt. There is direct continuity in that. To continue the proposed name of Glenshane showed the areas rich history.
But it seems now that Shane Crossagh could not have done more finer work.
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Nicholas Whyte’ take on this: https://nwhyte.livejournal.com/2949414.html
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Nicholas Whyte saying that Sinn Fein didn’t put in a response?
He also says the site seems to have removed the responses from the SDLP and DUP which seem to have favoured 4 seat Belfast. These were available for a period of time.
It seems to have changed the premise from Belfast at 3 as per the previous proposals to Belfast at 4. Everything else flows from that.
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yes, but is the real reason they changed from 3 to 4 belfast seats, because all these pro dup changes would then be possible.
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Nicholas Whyte is a highly regarded commentator. He has pointed out that the SDLP and DUP argued for 4 Belfast seats while SF did not put in any response whatever.
The new constituencies look ok on the whole for example in the old ones the Antrim constituencies especially East Antrim was very strange looking.
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I personally preferred Belfast and its hinterland staying at 4. The city is distinctly North, South, East and West.
I can’t believe the audacity of Sinn Fein.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-hit-out-at-gerrymandering-electoral-boundary-changes-36500844.html
The above nonsense but not enough to bother to submit a response.
It’s just like Brexit all over again.
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Click to access Provisional%20Proposals%20Report%20-%20September%202016.pdf
The commission thought otherwise in this report when they proposed 3 Belfast seats.
“The Commission began the delineation process by identifying and testing a diverse series of regional models. Since the four existing Belfast constituencies amount to 3.48 quotas, it was decided to test both three-seat and four-seat options for Belfast.
The Commission concluded from this exercise that the best models were those which provided for a three-seat Belfast. They were better both at the regional level and for each of the individual Belfast constituencies.”
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Gaygael I also think Belfast is somehow quite natural as a 4 – North, South, East, West, and none of those Belfast seats look wierd. The mid-Antrim seat looks a lot more sensible centering on Ballymena – the position of Ballymena was wierd in the last proposal – an arm stretching out from Larne to include it, separating it from its hinterland. So I am sure there are some wierdnessess in the new proposals, there previous ones were not great either frankly.
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Was thinking there might be a way to retain the 4 Belfast constituencies without adversely impacting elsewhere. Treat the rest of the 6 counties as a multi seat constituency.
Think it would deal with as you put it weirdness in the new proposals.
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The system up there in the North is based upon single seat constituencies, to ensure there is a local link for each MP to represent.
Hopefully Mary Lou McDonald will be able to widen Sinn Féin’s appeal and hence win a lot more seats up there.
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But there is precedent already in European elections and various referendums in the way votes are counted.
Only changes required would be to ensure Belfast seats reach quota and adjustments otherwise if over. Envisage a list system in use for the multi seat constituency, its a change from the usual First Past The Post at Westminster I know.
Its like the Gordian knot. Thought I’d suggest it anyways as in a way it keeps the 4 Belfast seats without causing other areas too much difficulty .
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Gaygael,
I disagree. North East Belfast is under water.
The Coastline & main Peace Wall interface defines North West Belfast including Shankill, along with it’s Patchwork demographics. South West Belfast is physically defined between the Interface Wall and the Lagan.
From the Lagan up to the N. Down shoreline is South East Belfast. Just 3 natural constitiuencies.
Previous perceptions of 4 quadrants were largely informed by religious demographics which is blurring with each passing day in South Belfast.
As for Sinn Fein, if their policy is to sit back and see if the DUP and the Brits are so blind and arrogant as to conspire to Gerymander constituencies against Catholics again, thus demonstrating the futility of pale Green Nationalists attempts to make the Statelet work, then that is a valid position, which may help swing their primary goal of winning a UI referendum.
.
That does justify the DUP and Tory sectarian perversion of the democratic process, despite how Slugger’s anti-Nationalists have swayed you.
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I have considered what you wrote but I still think the north, south, east, and west are four naturally distinct parts. More so than three.
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Paul I certainly understand the carve to 3 seats as you suggest. I feel more natural at 4 but I understand your reasoning. People ascribe 4 areas of Belfast in general parlance and they feel like 4 more natural areas. When I played the online tools, it became very difficult to keep Belfast at 4 without serious impact on the rest of the counties.
The 2nd bit re SF not putting a response in is nonsense guff making excuses for the party, but styling it in a baldrick esque ‘cunning plan’ notion. It seems the ball was dropped, as SF activists I know put responses and reports through to the party.
It’s like Brexit – no campaigning to stay in and abysmal turnout for it in SF heartlands. Now the UK voted to leave, jumping all over it throwing digs at PBP and doing a complete revision on SF’s previous approaches to EU membership says it all. And we have SF big hitters slabbering about Gerrymandering. That’s being chancers.
Again re the referendum – you can’t win currently without the support of others. Emulating the worst tactics of supremacist unionism will not endear us to your cause.
The third part re me being swayed is personalised nonsense. If I was easily swayed, (and being from my background), I’d be parroting your 2nd point nonsense. You will see my commentary on Slugger suggests this current proposal looks like the worst of Gerrymandering. I await the commissions full proposalas and rationale for such a volte face from the initial stages. Maybe SF should have contributed a response to support the original proposals.
As a wider point, I think these proposals will be slain by Tory rebels anyway.
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Gaygael,
Your theory requires us to believe that SF are completely incompetent in operating the levers of the electoral machine, which is entirely at odds with all the evidence we have seen, over the last 35 years of Sinn Feins phenomenal electoral success.
I can only imagine you are basing the plausibility of that theory on what you have seen in your own Green Party’s performances.
When your opponents are making giant blunders, it is an effective policy to do nothing that might hinder them. Perhaps a little cynical, but this is politics. Definitely more Blackadder himself than Baldrick, me thinks.
Re: being swayed, I was indeed referring to your post on Slugger where you initially were viewing it as a Gerrymander and were then subjected to a broadside in an attempted slapdown from Mick Fealty, resolutely defending the unbiased and incorruptable British Civil Servants.
To be fair, you held your line well against the crypto unionists, on wanting to wait to see the rationale and you’re correct in saying that the bigger picture at Westminster will probably prevent these proposals ever coming into effect. .
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I don’t see how deliberately looking incompetent is a good strategy. Sorry.
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Do you think Mary Lou McDonald will broaden SF’s appeal in the North. She does not come from an IRA background so may be able to attract support from outside CNR areas.
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Exciting to have a new SF leader – I think she will be a lot better than Adams.
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New blog up by Enda over at “Endgame in Ulster” http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/
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Seems as if Nationalists won’t be alone in opposing the new boundaries. Here’s the former Alliance leader, David Ford, holding forth on the bizarre proposals for the new, DUP-friendlier North Belfast constituency. He’s at pains to stress that’s he’s not alleging political bias.
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/plan-to-extend-belfast-into-countryside-dubbed-bizarre-by-ex-alliance-chief-1-8343005
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So we can take it this is not good news for the Ford seat in South Antrim.
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Good to see in the recent MRBI poll that 20% of people more likely to vote SF because of Mary Lou.
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