By Faha
I know that regular readers here have been looking forward to this. Faha’s analysis and predictions for the June 8th election are set out below……. Enjoy! – BD
The June 8 Westminster election will be held in 2 weeks. This is my constituency analysis for that election. It is more difficult to do an analysis by comparing this election with the 2015 election because so much has transpired in the previous 2 years. The UK voted to leave the UK in the Brexit referendum one year ago. Northern Ireland voted Remain by a 56% to 44% margin and this fact will influence the results in Northern Ireland. The second major factor is the end of nationalist voter apathy in the March 2017 Assembly election, which resulted in the unionist parties winning a minority of seats in the Assembly. This is the first time the unionist parties, in any legislative Assembly in the previous 100 years, have ever been in a minority.
However, it is not as simple as transposing the results of the March 2017 election to the Westminster election. The electorate is different. The 30,000 EU voters who were eligible to vote in March are unable to vote in the Westminster election so this would decrease the vote totals for SF, SDLP, Alliance and Greens. Since this is a first past the post election, tactical voting will be more prominent. Turnout is difficult to predict but there is no reason to believe that there will be an increased unionist turnout. Brexit is a done deal and the Conservatives appear headed for a landslide victory in the UK. There is no reason for unionist non-voters who favour Brexit to vote since the Conservative Party will negotiate Brexit for them.
Some SF, SDLP, Alliance and Green nonvoters who did not vote in March, but who are strongly opposed to Brexit, may vote as a form of protest against Brexit and this is their only opportunity to do so before Brexit occurs in 2019. There may also be an increase in voting by dissident republicans who traditionally have voted for SF but have stopped voting in recent years. Of course, they have no interest in Westminster but the strong showing by SF in the Assembly election will motivate some to vote and defeat unionist candidates.
There was a Lucid Talk Poll done in the past week and the results were:
Change Assembly 2017
SF 27.9% 0.0%
SDLP 13.7% 1.8%
PBP 0.9% -0.9%
Alliance 9.8% 0.7%
Green 0.7% -1.6%
DUP 28.8% 0.7%
UUP 15.7% 2.8%
TUV 0.1% -2.4%
Conservative 0.2% 0.0%
Others 2.2% -0.2%
The only statistically significant changes from the March Assembly election are the increase for the SDLP and UUP and the decrease for the TUV and Green. More than half the other vote would be for Sylvia Hermon.
There are 8 constituencies where there could be a change compared to 2015, I will briefly go over the 10 constituencies where there is no possibility of a change in the results from 2015. 4 of these are SF seats and 5 are DUP seats.
West Tyrone
Assembly result
SF 48.1%
SDLP 14.2%
UUP 8.2%
DUP 20.5%
An easy victory for SF here and it is possible the SF vote may exceed 50%.
Mid Ulster
Assembly results
SF 52.8%
SDLP 12.9%
UUP 9.1%
DUP 19.3%
Again an easy victory for SF with a vote greater than 50%.
Newry and Armagh
Assembly results
SF 48.4%
SDLP 16.3%
UUP 13.2%
DUP 17.8%
An easy victory for SF here and it is possible the SF vote may exceed 50%.
West Belfast
Assembly results
SF 61.8%
SDLP 8.6%
PBP 14.9%
UUP 1.2%
DUP 10.1%
This will be SF’s best result. The only point of interest here will be if the PBP vote collapses further.
Strangford
Assembly results
SF 2.9%
SDLP 8.9%
UUP 20.1%
DUP 39.9%
Alliance 15.0%
An easy victory for the DUP here. This was one constituency where there was only a minimal increase in nationalist turnout. The Brexit referendum had a much higher turnout and there was a 44.5% Remain vote. If there is any evidence of a anti Brexit protest vote it would show up in higher vote total for Alliance, SDLP or SF.
Lagan Valley
Assembly results
SF 4.0%
SDLP 8.4%
UUP 25.2%
DUP 40.3%
Alliance 15.0%
Another easy victory for the DUP here. Lagan Valley voted 46.9% Remain on a higher turnout so it will be interesting if any anti-Brexit protest vote shows up in the Alliance, SDLP and SF vote.
East Antrim
Assembly results
SF 9.9%
SDLP 4.1%
UUP 22.7%
DUP 35.2%
Alliance 16.0%
An easy victory for the DUP here. This is another constituency with a higher Brexit turnout and a 44.8% Remain vote. Will there be any evidence of an anti-Brexit protest vote here?
North Antrim
Assembly results
SF 15.8%
SDLP 7.3%
UUP 12.5%
DUP 40.6%
TUV 16.1%
Another safe seat for the DUP. This was the most pro Brexit constituency at over 62%. The only point of interest here is if the TUV vote collapses further.
East Derry
Assembly results
SF 25.8%
SDLP 10.8%
Nationalist 1.2%
UUP 6.7%
DUP 33.3%
Other Unionist 16.7%
Alliance 4.4%
This is a safe seat for the DUP. This is one constituency where a nationalist pact could be viable since the combined nationalist vote of 37.8% exceeds the DUP vote of 33.3%. In reality though it would not be successful since much of the other unionist vote would go to the DUP in such a situation and the DUP vote would exceed 40%, as it did in the 2015 Westminster election.
North Down
Assembly results
UUP 21.5%
DUP 37.5%
Alliance 18.6%
Green 13.7%
Sylvia Hermon will win easily here as she always does. She will receive the UUP vote as well as much of the SF, SDLP, Alliance and Green vote. Some of the DUP vote will also go to her.
Now I will analyze the 8 seats where there could be a change. I will start with the ones that will be the most likely to change.
South Antrim
Assembly results
SF 16.3%
SDLP 9.5%
UUP 20.8%
DUP 33.7%
Alliance 12.5%
I except that this seat will be won by Paul Girvan of the DUP and Danny Kinahan of the UUP will lose. They are several reasons for this conclusion. The DUP vote exceeded the UUP vote by 5,500 in the Assembly election. In the 2015 Westminster election Danny Kinahan won by only 1,000 votes. In comparing that 2015 vote with the previous Assembly election it appears that 1,000 of his votes were tactical votes from Alliance voters and another 500 were tactical votes from the SDLP. These 1,500 tactical voters probably voted for Danny Kinahan because Willie McCrea was seen as extreme by those voters and Danny Kinahan was seen as a moderate. These votes are unlikely to go to Danny Kinahan this time. Those tactical Alliance and SDLP voters are anti-Brexit and Danny Kinahan voted pro Brexit in Westminster so they are unlikely to vote for him. Paul Girvan of the DUP does not have the same image as Willie McCrea and it is more likely that most of the DUP Assembly voters will vote for him. This constituency is the most likely to have a change on June 8.
Fermanagh South Tyrone
Assembly results
SF 22,008
SDLP 5,134
UUP 6,060
DUP 15,581
Other Unionist 850
Alliance 1,437
Green 550
Labour 643
There is a unionist pact here will only Tom Elliot of the UUP standing as the unofficial unionist unity candidate. The total unionist vote of 22,491 only slightly exceeds the SF vote of 22,008. The SF vote does include some EU nationals but probably less than 1,000. I expect that the majority of the 643 Labour vote will go to SF. Also, in Westminster elections some of the SDLP vote goes to SF. This is more likely to occur this time because the SDLP candidate is not from the constituency and is actually a councillor in West Tyrone. There could be a few Green or Alliance anti Brexit voters that also go to SF. I also expect more dissident republicans to vote in this election as a protest against a hard border. This seat will be won by SF though as always it will be a close election.
East Belfast
Assembly results
SF 2.9%
SDLP 0.6%
UUP 13.1%
DUP 37.6%
Other Unionist 8.9%
Alliance 31.4%
Green 3.6%
Labour 1.1%
I believe this constituency will result in a very narrow win for Alliance. The DUP appear to have the advantage. There is a 8.9% vote for the PUP and TUV here but some of these voters may stay home or vote UUP. I expect enough of them to vote DUP to increase the DUP vote to 41% to 42%. I expect that there will be enough tactical voting by SF, SDLP, Green and Alliance voters (and possibly a few UUP) to increase the Alliance vote to 36%. The major unknown is turnout. East Belfast did vote 48.6% Remain on a higher turnout. There were 20,700 Remain voters. I think there will be an increased voter turnout here mainly due to anti Brexit voters and this will give Naomi Long a narrow victory over the DUP.
The following 2 constituencies could change but I believe it is very unlikely.
Upper Bann
Assembly results
SF 27.8%
SDLP 9.9%
UUP 20.6%
DUP 32.8%
TUV 2.0%
Alliance 5.3%
It appears that SF may have a chance of winning in Upper Bann. The SF vote was only 2,500 less than the DUP vote in March. However, the TUV are not competing and most of their 1,000 votes will go to the DUP. The SF total also includes EU nationals and may be as high as 1,000. Thus, SF would need an additional 4,000 votes. It is possible that 1,000 to 2,000 could come from the SDLP. Nationalist turnout has always been much less that unionist turnout here and unless there is a significant increase in nationalist nonvoters who decide to vote as a protest against Brexit the DUP should retain this seat.
Foyle
Assembly results
SF 36.7%
SDLP 31.8%
PBP 10.7%
UUP 3.7%
DUP 13.4%
Alliance 2.5%
SF would appear to have the edge here as their vote total exceeded that of the SDLP by over 2,000 votes. However, there is no UUP candidate and there is a history here of significant tactical voting for Mark Durkan from Alliance, UUP and even a few DUP voters which will make up that 2,000 vote difference. PBP will poll less without Eamonn McCann as the candidate and the SDLP will pick up more of that vote. Mark Durkan should win but with a narrower majority.
South Belfast
Assembly results
SF 17.7%
SDLP 19.4%
UUP 9.0%
DUP 20.9%
TUV 1.6%
Alliance 17.8%
Green 9.9%
The DUP would appear to have the edge over the SDLP here. Not only was the DUP vote 1.5% higher than the SDLP vote in March but it is likely that the DUP will add another 1% from the TUV vote. However, there is likely to be significant tactical voting for the SDLP from some Green, Alliance, SF and even a few UUP voters to prevent the DUP from winning. In the Brexit referendum South Belfast voted 70% Remain and 30% Leave so there could be a significant anti-Brexit protest vote that will benefit Alasdair McDonnell. The Lucid Talk poll is showing a 1.8% increase in the SDLP vote and it is likely that this increase is localized to the constituencies of South Belfast, Foyle and South Down due to tactical voting and a personal vote for the candidates.
North Belfast
Assembly results
SF 29.4%
SDLP 13.1%
PBP 3.8%
UUP 5.8%
DUP 32.1%
PUP 4.9%
Alliance 8.4%
Green 1.7%
There is an unofficial unionist pact here with Nigel Dodds of the DUP the only unionist candidate. The DUP will pick up all the PUP and most of the UUP vote so the DUP total vote should be 42%. The SF vote will be much higher than 29.4% and will come from 4 sources. SF should add 3% of the PBP vote. The SDLP have a low profile candidate and the SDLP vote is lower in Westminster elections compared to Assembly or Council elections due to some tactical voting for SF in Westminster elections. The big unknown is how much of the 13.1% of the March Assembly vote will go to SF. Alban Maginness received 8.2% in 2015 but he was a high profile candidate with a significant personal vote whereas Martin McCauley is relatively unknown. Furthermore most SDLP voters are anti Brexit and may be more inclined to tactically vote SF to defeat the pro Brexit Nigel Dodds. I believe the SDLP vote could be as low as 6%. There will also be a few Green and Alliance voters who will vote tactically for SF due to Brexit. These would be Green and Alliance voters who give SF a 2nd or lower preference in an Assembly election. The SF vote should reach 40% which would still be short of Nigel Dodds. SF can win only if stay at home republican and nationalist nonvoters turnout in an anti-Brexit vote. SF needs a perfect storm with additional votes from PBP, SDLP, Alliance and Green voters as well as non-voters to win here. If any one of those does not materialize SF cannot win.
South Down
Assembly results
SF 38.6%
SDLP 25.2%
UUP 8.5%
DUP 15.8%
Alliance 9.2%
SF is more likely to win this seat than North Belfast. The gap between SF and the SDLP was over 13% in March. Based on previous elections the SDLP will pick up another 9% from tactical votes from Alliance, UUP and DUP voters. However, the SDLP would still be 4% behind SF. There was higher unionist tactical voting for Margaret Ritchie in 2010 and if this were to recur in this election then the SDLP would close the gap. There is probably also a small personal vote for Margaret Ritchie among voters who voted for SF for the first time this past March. This will be a very close contest and the outcome will be determined by the extent of Alliance and unionist tactical voting. This is probably one constituency where the increased SDLP vote in the Lucid Talk poll is concentrated.
"We in coming days may be" 
“the Conservatives appear headed for a landslide victory in the UK”.
Just stopped at this first introductory sentence as I beg to differ!!!!
see (1)
which was written before the manchester Arena bombing
and (2)
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.it/2017/05/disaster-for-tories-as-up-to-date.html
The fieldwork for this poll took place entirely after the tragedy in Manchester and entirely after the Prime Minister’s announcement that the UK’s threat level had been raised to ‘critical’
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There were 5 more polls released this weekend and the average Conservative lead is 10%. They varied from 6% to 14%. Unless there is a change in the next week the Tory majority will increase significantly.
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not criticising by any means the incredible work you’ve done in profiling all these constituencies but . . . . I’m not altogether certain we are looking at a Tory win in Westminster
If and i admit it is a big if, there is a general shift in public perceptions etc it could be the harbinger of big changes
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The greatest ever NI constituency profiles were put together about 10 years ago by Samuel FB Morse. Don’t know who he is, but I really wish he would do it again. Each constituency was like an essay case study.
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Did gerry lynch not do the sammy morse blogs
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He did!
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Oops sorry my fat finger marked you down instead of up
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I forget Sammy Morses real name now but, if I am right, he now lives in England and so maybe has no longer the level of interest any more.
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I know him! Those were indeed fantastic.
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Faha, thanks again. As always you manage to make the build up to the election far more illuminating and you rarely appear to be incorrect. The Map above puts into stark colour the reality of the North’s changing demographics. A few more years and a decent push from Nationalism and partition will be over.
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The intensity of RHI last time mitigated heavily against the DUP. It doesn’t seem to be as intense this cycle. I think that and the EU nationals issue you highlight are the two biggest factors on the WM election compared to the Assembly.
I think/hope you are wrong about North Belfast, but other than that it looks spot on. Good work.
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Enda, Faha, u don’t have any stats on the number of registered voters compared to march. It would be interesting to see if there has been a significant increase?
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Have a hoke around here Robin: http://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/650d9e83-4653-4f7c-9eda-43c628d55771/2-May-2017-Parliamentary-Electorate or here: http://www.eoni.org.uk/Register-To-Vote/Electorate-Statistics/Electorate-Statistics-by-Ward-2017
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The final electoral register for the June 8 election was published today. The total electorate is up almost 15,000 from March. Fermanagh South Tyrone is up over 1,000 which bodes well for SF there. The figures for all of the UK have shown that the majority of new voters are under age 30.
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I have been doing the sums for North Belfast and I honestly believe that Finucane can win this seat by a whisker, if he loses it will also be by a whisker also. The news from Shinnerbase in NB is that they are throwing everything at it and there is little sign of serious canvassing by either SDLP or Alliance, so my bias is going to call it for SF. The SDLP will hold on in SB and obviously SF will retain WB. Can Naomi work her magic in EB? I am calling it for her, there is an anti DUP swell out there so if she cannot win it now she never will. No Unionist MP at all in Belfast? I wonder what odds I would get on that?
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Your thoughts, Bangor Dub?
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/sinn-fein-woman-under-fire-for-calling-bangor-a-shole-35773373.html
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Fair question Antain,
It was a very silly and politically naieve comment, particularly in the run up to an election. I am sure that local Bangor party members will be furious as well as the wider party and leadership.
I should point out that she has now removed and apologised for the post.
On the wider point, Bangor actually has a wide range of cross community events and parades including hosting the Ulster Fleadh as well as a local Easter parade for children.
Personally, I hope she has learned her lesson.
The perils of social media eh?.
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Not that I thought you’d agree! It was indeed a daft statement and gives the DUP an easy come-back line whenever anyone challenges them on the rantings of Jim Wells et al. When will political activists realise that their social media statements are just as public as anything they say into a microphone?
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The boost in proxy votes may result in 1,000s of additional voters in each constituency. The numbers appear to more than counterbalance the drop in EU nationals and likely to be much more Nationalist.
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As mentioned above by Faha, the latest electoral numbers are out today, here they are with changes since April:
Constituency Apr-17 Jun-17 Diff
Belfast East 63,159 63,495 336
Belfast North 66,961 68,249 1,288
Belfast South 65,466 66,105 639
Belfast west 61,161 62,423 1,262
East Antrim 62,574 62,908 334
East Derry 66,758 67,038 280
FST 69,813 70,601 788
Foyle 69,577 70,324 747
Lagan Valley 71,608 72,380 772
Mid Ulster 67,975 68,485 510
North Antrim 75,269 75,657 388
North Down 64,070 64,334 264
Newry and Armagh 77,541 78,266 725
South Antrim 67,581 68,244 663
South Down 74,643 75,685 1,042
Strangford 64,063 64,327 264
Upper Bann 79,359 80,168 809
West Tyrone 63,470 64,009 539
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N. Belfast has the largest increase of all. 4 times higher than several others. Astonishing considering years of declining electorates in Belfast. Are we looking at the result of new housing estates, naturalised immigrants coming into the system, Orange fleggers, a 1999 baby boom, Nationalist surging to register for Finucane or a focused postal and proxy vote campaigns by one or both sides ?
One thing is for certain, the analysis provided here by Faha, though excellent as ever, can not be taken even as a rough guide for N. Belfast, due to the huge unknowable factor of a likely flood of new Nationalist voters coming out because for the first time, they have a great candidate with a decent chance of winning and ousting Brexiteer, slimey Dodds, to boot !
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I see the North Belfast April electorate as 68,512.
http://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/3af33b55-683c-42ba-aed8-44a30a183466/April-2017-Electorate-by-Ward
68,187 for the recent AE election. So up 325 since then and actually falling since April.
Am I missing something. I helped register 15 odd people.
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Gaygael,
The figures quoted are the Parliamentary electorate, not to be confused with the assembly/ local council electorate
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Increases on the scale of N and W Belfast in 2 months are the result of concerted voter drives, not the much slower process of demographic change. Would suppose the Shinners are responsible. They’re certainly pulling out all the stops for John Finucane in my home constituency but I’m not quite seeing it for all the reasons FAHA outlined.
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As one of the diaspora, I’ve always been fascunated by demographic change. One thing I don’t see mentioned is the increasing strength of the € vs £. It seems to be the first time in history that we will be richer than the Protestants. Might that accelerate the Catholic majority by allowing Catholics in northern areas to buy up property the other side of the border?
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I have just recalled who Sammy Morse is – but I am not telling!
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/less-than-1-separates-sinn-fein-and-the-dup-new-polls-shows-35794650.html
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In this week’s Lucid Talk poll the total unionist vote is 46% (including Sylvia Hermon) and the total nationalist vote between 42.5% and 43%. However, at the bottom of their report they note that the Nationalist/Republican voters scored 96% on “Likelihood of Voting” and Unionist voters 86% so there is a possibility the margin could be even closer. Catholic voters had 57% who rated stopping Brexit in their top four motivations for voting. It also appears that the 4% of minor unionist party vote in March is dividing equally between the DUP and UUP. The SDLP vote is projected up 1.9% from March and the Alliance vote up 0.8% from March.This extra vote is probably concentrated in Foyle, South Down, South Belfast and East Belfast.
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Dreadful weather forecast for Thursday: torrential rain and a bit of thunder and lightning here and there. Suitably apocalyptic.
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So a summary of what have we learnt about this election campaign, apparently it is boring. Well at least that is the narrative.
Yet nothing has changed still there are crocodiles snapping at the heels.
No mention of RHI or equality even respect for that matter.
Some mention about being blonde. And we are also told by an absentee landlord we don’t actually know what we want.
So basically we are told we are dumb and blonde.
Have I forgot to mention I hear it’s too destabilizing to have a border poll- after Brexit? As Ace Ventura said “Let’s do all the things YOU wanna to do.”
Celebrities can endorse anyone but SFers are excluded.
Even your legitimate vote is called into question.
Nothing has changed but only one thing to do about it, vote. Vote on June 8th.
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An increase in number of postal and proxy votes. Looks like the view of a boring election is not one shared by all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40165035
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Today is the day. Lets get the vote out lads.
Carrickally, this could be the day you see the light and come over to the side of the righteous.
Gaygael, you may as well stay in bed and pop your vote out the window and let the wind take it where it will, for all the good it will do.
This could be an historic day, so let’s be part of it !!
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I did call (erroneously) 8SF seats and spent my night headscratching.
I then realised the problem. I started off looking at uup and dup seats, added SB as TCTC and completely forgot about ND. sorry bangordub! So i should have predicted 7 SF, rather than 8.
Yet again the Union is safe but for the first time, the focus was not NI. Scotland has ebbed back from the SNP high tide and that is the positive story of the night for me.
May,umm, may go but i cant see it just yet. Judging by results, she will obtain a working majority thanks to three places; Scotland, South Down and Foyle. SF have inadvertently helped to prop up Theresa May by taking those two seats and then not taking them. The DUP will help her out for a few chips and the odd ha’penny. And ironically, Corbyn has been undone by the Shinners. 7 seats would reduce that Tory wooing of the DUP.
So a victory snatched from the crocodile jaws of defeat for Unionism in NI, a defeat that is actually a victory in Scotland for the Union and a slightly squelchy Brexit.
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Again. You threw everything you had at North Belfast and didn’t get close enough.
SF, even with a celebrity candidate and throwing every single thing they had at it can’t dislodge Dodds. Your brand is too toxic.
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42 %, SF almost ousted Dodds, but scuppered by the fifth columnists.
Odd that someone with a 1.4 % spoilers vote, is gloating on the DUP’s win.
The Greens mask has slipped to expose the crypto-Unionists.
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Gaygael its not toxicity its just the numbers are not quite there. Even as an independent finucane probably would have fallen short. Next time esp if new boundaries go ahead he will win
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I said on the previous thread that my hunch is that had he been independent he may have done it. There would not have been the toxicity of SF and those 5k odd votes that went to Alliance, SDLP, Green and Workers, could have more easily swung to Finucane. In addition, the candidacy for SF and having Sean Kelly out canvassing for him, helped to motivate the unionist base.
Independence would not have done that.
If boundaries change then yes, there is a very good shout. If they don’t its evident that a SF challenge aids in motivating unionism.
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I am not gloating. If I was, I would be gloating at being pretty nail on the head of what I called weeks ago. SF to lose by a couple of thousand. My analysis chimed pretty much with Faha’s.
Your loss cannot be ascribed to other parties, rather your own failure to persuade enough people to support your candidate. He is a great candidate, free from much of the toxicity of previous SF candidates. The party threw everything they had at it. It was still not enough. You played right into the DUP’s hands with Sean Kelly. It acted as the last boost needed to ensure that their base came out. I have been telling Shinners for weeks that unionism was rallying around Dodds.
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For those of Left and/or Irish Nationalist persuasion I think this will be an ultimately dissapointing election after the boost in March and Corbyn’s well run campaign
http://abitleftandabitlost.weebly.com/posts/my-2017-uk-general-election-predictions-with-hard-numbers
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Mark Durkan, ever the Gentleman. The only SDLP MP that i’ll miss.
Congratulations to Sinn Fein on a stunning performance. A fitting legacy for Martin.
Lets hope South Down and FST can be brought home too !
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Well done Chris. Another ex SDLP leader gets her P45.
Thank you for putting us out of her misery.
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South belfast result unbelievable. Both nationalist parties improve their vote but because the UUP implode DUP sneak it. Very dissapointing. North belfast also very close but Dodds gets lucky again FFS
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Slimey Dodds claiming Nationalists voted for him.
In way he’s right. Any Nationalist who voted SDLP, Green or WP, might just as well have voted for him.
There were enough Nationalists who tuned out, to have beaten him.
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And there goes Alistair. 3 out of 3. The electorate have decided they will be abstaining from Westminster whether they like it or not.
Just a pity Emma ‘KAT’ Pengelly has benefited. But she’ll only get 1 term before Belfast SE supercedes her.
SDLP are better off rebuilding without McDonnell and Ritchie.
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SDLP really needed Hannah although she did just give birth do that wasnt on the cards. She might have got more borrowed votes. Can’t believe the UUP collapsed so much to hand it to Pengelly. Glad Ritchie is gone she was terrible but feel for Durkan as he actually was very capable and proved his class with a very humble losing speech.
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I wouldn’t bet on those boundary changes going through with a hung parliament and the DUP doubtless preparing a shopping list .
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The Boundary Review will continue but the proposals are unlikely to be accepted by Westminster. The DUP hold the balance of power and will never agree to the NI proposals which would result in the loss of seats by Dodds and Simpson. Also Belfast East and South will become Belfast Southeast and either Gavin or Pengelly would need to step down as a candidate. The DUP will never agree to boundary changes that will result in the loss of 3 seats and 2 gains by SF. The only possibility of passage would be if the SNP support the Boundary Review in a cynical attempt to have the Conservatives return to power since the review will add another 30 Tory seats.
The Assembly may also be suspended indefinitely. Prior to this election if the Assembly was suspended and Direct Rule imposed it meant direct Tory rule. That was desirable from the DUP point of view but there was always the possibility that the Conservatives might pass legislation for Northern Ireland that they did not approve of. Now that the DUP hold the balance of power in Westminster Direct Rule is DUP rule and the DUP can essentially govern Northern Ireland from Westminster with no input of influence from any nationalists. Basically the clock has been turned back to 1967 with no nationalist influence on any decisions affecting Northern Ireland.
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However, this brings the DUP into the spotlight of UK politics – already their positions and baggage are being broadcast by the various UK talking heads that have always ignored Northern Ireland.
Remember how Molyneux was smart enough to not go into an official coalition with Major? He knew the risks of the UK population waking up to what was going on in the north.
It may be rough for a year or two but the actuarial predictions have this govt falling within two years due to deaths and bankruptcies. How long before the opposition starts using Unionist numbers of 10 billion a year subsidy against them?
Unionism NEED the Assembly and need it to function to try and bandage NI together, without it the place collapses even further into entrenched sectarian lines. And that “DUP will prevent a hard border” is total BS, they will have a hard border in Ireland, rather than passport controls crossing the Irish Sea.
The hard border is the one thing that guarantees re-unification before the north reaches its centenary.
Unionism is finished, every option for it now is only selecting the manner and exact timing of its termination.
Predictions from crunching excel data in 1998 are finally coming true and it’s a great feeling 🙂 And Unionism is bound and determined to help accelerate the process!
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Spectacular from Sinn Fein and the DUP. Bring on the boundary review.
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I can see it going on the backburner to benefit the two new partners in government.
And on that, how’s this for a curveball; May spins a coalition with the DUP as a way of representing the whole country in Brexit negotiations?
And by a quirk of geography, the DUP succeed in obtaining a soft Brexit…
We may be living in interesting times (on a stage bigger than that with the dreary steeples).
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Interesting result. Very mixed on the whole from both left and right, Nationalist & Unionist perspective I think.
In the North, the results of North and South Belfast indicate short terms wins for Unionism. These two look very likely to turn green very soon. Incredible polarising of the community which can’t be good for long term reconciliation.
Westminster power for the DUP will be short-lived and a final hurrah for them. I can’t see any real significant concession they could squeeze out of the Tories that would have long term damage – except the long term damage of Brexit of course – which seems to be an unstoppable juggernaut.
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Great win for Gildernew. We must never let Unionists take FST again.
Now the breakthrough has been achieved, the SDLP will fade away in South Down and Foyle.
SF can now focus on N. Belfast, S. Belfast and Upper Bann.
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The last time Unionists were in government in the UK was WWI if I recall correctly. Good to see them bookending the birth and death of Northern Ireland, such a nice balanced symmetry.
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Looks like all of those AP/GRN Unionist votes came home along with a consolidation of every other Unionist party behind the DUP.
Compared to 2017 Ass election – Nationalism up 4k votes to 340.5k; Unionism up 30k to 397.8k and Others down 27k to 71.5k.
I’m not sure how many, if any, of those remaining “Others” are Unionist or neutral on the border. I would have to say that the fright of the Assembly elections has circled the wagons of Unionism and we are likely tied on the border 49/49 right now.
The DUP may think they are king of the hill being able to dictate from Westminster but they’ve practically guaranteed SF coalition with FF. Which will spike any Brexit deal that has a hard border on the island.
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Crunched the constituency by party and compared 2017 WM to 2015 Wm and 2017 Ass for deltas.
The DUP gained 65k votes since the assembly election, the entirety of which are the vote drops for the Greens, Alliance, UUP, TUV, UKIP, PUP plus 1,000 increased turnout. SF’s increase is about 6,000 new turnout and the PBPA vote drop.
All of which gives Unionism 49.06% percent of the vote, and that’s with every Unionist hoovered in from the “non-aligned” Greens/Alliance. That is the high water mark for Unionism. 49%. Time to call a border poll. They are done right now.
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Newry & Mid-Ulster are the only two places with reduced turnout – 3.7k and 3k respectively but it doesn’t look like Unionist vote was impacted at all. It looks like there is 5k to 6.5k Nationalist votes that came out in the Assembly but didn’t in the WM.
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I can’t find a post which deals specifically with proposed new boundaries so I will stick this here and you can deal with it as appropriate. I do not think the new boundaries will proceed. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2018.html
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Thanks Croiteir,
I’m looking at that now myself, I’m thinking 2 extra seats, possibly three for nationalist parties
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Are ye sure there won’t be another UKGE before the boundaries are set? For decades the Tory party has been beset up rebellious euro-sceptics, any chance we’ll hear of rebellious euro-philes in the Tory ranks? All it would take is half a dozen.
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This is a highly unstable Westminster.
As others point out it would only take a handful of Tories to rebel on Brexit either way, too far not too far enough, it’s over.
I’ll go for a October election.
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An astute observer over at UK Polling Report made the following observation. The Conservatives do not need the DUP to govern the UK, They only need the DUP to abstain from any vote against the government. The Conservatives have 318 seats including the Speaker (who usually does not vote) so only 317 votes. If the Speaker, SF (7)and the DUP (10) do not vote then there are 332 votes on any particular issue and the Conservatives would win 317 to 315 if the DUP abstain. Of course, such a narrow margin of victory is unstable. One lost bye election, 1 or 2 members unable to attend a vote, or one Tory rebel and a vote could be lost. The Conservatives need the DUP for greater long term stability.
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Very much of the view that the SDLP will take stock of this and bounce back to win all three constituencies back next time. The fightback starts now as I think the highly-regarded SDLP candidate Seamas de Faoite was saying the other day.
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Bless
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“the highly-regarded SDLP candidate Seamas de Faoite was saying the other day.”
The same Seamas de Faoite who was beaten by a Tory candidate here, a Tory candidate who got more than twice the amount of votes Seamas did?
Not that highly regarded then.
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Or as I call him Seamas DeFeated
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I gave that post a thumbs-up; it’s comedy gold.
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The SDLP could retake Foyle with tactical Unionist voting. Will Durkan run again?
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The BelTel catches on to the gamechanging potential of the proposed Westminster boundary changes, just as the prospect of them ever happening fades in the new Tory-DUP dispensation. Even so, there some interesting projections on party vote-share in the new constituencies, courtesy of ‘Electoral Calculus’. (No, I have never heard of them either, and there’s no link). I disagree with the confident prediction that the DUP would retain the redrawn East Belfast seat, which gains territory from South Belfast. There’s nowhere near enough Nationalists there to trouble the DUP with a candidate of their own, but they could just tip the balance for Alliance. At any rate, it’s all hypothetical. And the BelTel is probably doing its favourite party a service by flagging the danger to Unionism.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/boundary-changes-could-make-sinn-fein-biggest-party-in-northern-ireland-35831665.html
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Antain, i thought the Westminster boundary changes were already agreed?
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They have to be voted on at Westminster, Oriel. It’s a tricky one for Theresa May. I’m sure she’d like to take out as many Labour seats as she can but I can’t see the DUP letting something like this go before the House untampered with.
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The DUP will likely lobby for no change here. As you may know I saw Nigel Dodds up close and personal at the Boundary Commission consultation. It wasn’t pretty.
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I fully expect that these discussions on the boundary changes have formed part of the discussions between the DUP and May.
Expect a delay, redraft more amenable to unionism or complete rejection.
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Gaygael, good to see you back post election, restores some faith
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Thank You. My boyfriend had me on a heavy rosta to make up for the chores that I missed over the previous 6 weeks. I’m tempted to tell you all I told you so re North Belfast.
The Boundary Review process is laid out on this site more fully but here is the timeline. Missed dates already for the secondary consultation. Draw from that what you will. Final report is apparently due with SOS on 1st October…..
Click to access 2018-review-timeline_1.pdf
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Yes Gaygael, I was present at the 1st consultation, that’s how I know how opposed to it the DUP are
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Hi Gaygael, surely redraft cant be ethical in this day an age? I thought the boundary changes were set up to have equal numbers voting in each constituencies?. Surely gerrymandering won’t be accepted again by nationalists?
when is the vote scheduled?
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Could this be the rock the Tory/DUP deal is foundering on?
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The problem for unionists is that any new boundaries is going to hurt them so dont know how they can be redrawn to favour them without being blatantly obvious
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What are we to make of the NILT survey 2016 putting support for a UI at 19%?
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Nothing its flawed as always.
Q. Do you want a united ireland tomorrow?
A. Well er no obviously
Funny how when most surveys ask a follow up question ie within the next 10 yrs etc the support is around 40% but those figures are rarely quoted by the usual suspects who just like to stick with 8% or whatever other dodgy guff they read.
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It’s NILT, the Unionist security blanket. They don’t fiddle the numbers near as blatant as the 1991 census results but they are the current leaders. The Lucid Talk poll seems to be getting the only decent data on these questions. Although it appears the elections have delayed their “quarterly tracking poll” which in January had some real interesting numbers on Brexit and re-unification (at least I haven’t seen it).
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I love your optimism Gendjinn.
What this about the 1991 census being fiddled?
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Re NILT Survey which is conducted face to face with just over 1000 people:
“Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth” Oscar Wilde (Hat tip to Lucidtalk)
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@Nambarrie, as an exercise in mirth look at the raw sectarian headcount numbers Catholic, Protestant, Other, None Declared to the numbers where those “None Declared” get assigned. Census after census assigns 90%+ of those to the Protestant/Unionist community.
1991 was the last time the Unionists had full control of the NI civil service. One of the benefits of the AIA was the Catholic civil servants in the north talking to their counterparts in the south, who then had Dublin talk to London. Almost no Catholics were getting promoted to the upper ranks. Think RUC.
Additionally in 2001 the numbers of non-declared that were not Unionist were getting too large to shovel into the Protestant/Unionist camp without the psephologists crying foul. Which is why in 2011 we got that farcical “let’s trick Nationalists into saying they support the Union with the Northern Ireland nationality option.” Now that everyone knows what that question is really asking it will be curious if it is included in the 2021 census.
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@bangordub, I always thought it was because west of the Bann they only interviewed RUC stations and SDLP offices.
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@gendjinn thanks for the explanation; that rings a bells all right.
Did you ever heard the theory that there’s some ultra-nationalists who refuse to participate in the census or vote?
It’s not totally outlandish. I’ve read that if you compare the UK’s food imports and domestic food production against the census numbers there’s enough excess food coming in every week to feed several million more persons than are officially accounted for.
In the context of the North, who knows? If true, surely the non-engagement numbers must be absolutely minuscule.
Incidentally, Lucid Talk has a border opinion poll modeled on the Scottish referendum question scheduled for October. They’d one planned for around now but the election knocked it back.
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glendijn is not accurate in what he says about the census, in my view.
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The opinion polls and other surveys show no real support base for a UI. It can perhaps be argued that SF and the IRA have actually put back a UI. The SDLP have a good UI policy.
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SDLP activist, in your experience, do SDLP voters vote for the party because it is not the DUP/UUP or because they want a united Ireland.
Many SDLP voters I have meet are very happy living in the UK, seek no change to the constitutional arrangements, but can’t bring themselves to vote for an avowedly anti-Irish unionist party.
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I think they vote SDLP because that is who they identify with.
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Or because they know their looked down on and despised by Unionists but have been cowed by the British and brainwashed by the Church into accepting their lot without any resistance and the SDLP are the electoral manifestation of that collusion.
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SDLP is behind SF in terms of equality for the LGBTIQA community.
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as far as I can see the SDLP policy on a reunited Ireland was written by Augustine
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“As far as I can see the SDLP policy on a reunited Ireland was written by Augustine.”
I thought that you would approve of that.
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Sinn Féin have the best policy on a United Ireland. Also SF stronger on LGBTQIA rights, womens rights, rights for ethnic minorities, and they have the most progressive economic and health policies, whether north or south.
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That is absolute nonsense.
SF are playing catch up with us on queer rights. A quick critical analysis on their actions while having access to the levers of power versus well rehearsed slogans and poster shows a clear gap. The 3 most base examples I will give you are; Lack of a sexual orientation strategy after 10 yrs in government and its subsequent disappearance from the most recent Programme for Government. Minister O’Neill refusing to extend IVF access to LGBT women. 3 SF education Ministers, and how little life has improved for queer kids in school.
That’s before I start on other equality streams.
As for most progressive economic and health policies. Granting corporations tax cuts while telling your base it must face austerity is rich. Never mind last nights expose on PFI.
Stop drinking the cool aide fella. Develop a critical analysis.
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Not sure I would agree. SF’s manifestos in recent times have been very much ahead of other major parties on LGBTIQA rights as well as other rights such as women’s rights.
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Sinn Fein policy document on LGBT rights: https://issuu.com/sinnfeinireland/docs/lgbt_document_june2014
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Those of us that were around in the 80s remember the fight for decriminalisation and remember who was where in that fight. I suspect gaygael is too young to remember that and has an axe to grind. Then again Robin Keogh told him his story of SF, LGBT and the 80s, but somehow gaygael neglects to remember that when repeating his lies about SF.
Blind hatred does tend to blind one to reality.
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I can link you to our queer manifesto.
I can repeat (for you gendjinn) that SF moved to support decriminalisation in 1986. Fives years after Jeff Dudgeon had won and many years after Norris first challenge. Being progressive is being AHEAD not following when the political climate changes or is changing.
I don’t have hatred for anyone. I’m a hippy. I love most people.
So can any Shinner respond to the 3 challenges above? When SF have access to the levers of power, what did they do for lgbtq people? As for the nonsense on Trans people, we stood the first ever Trans candidate on this Island. We had a motion at the Assembly calling for gender recognition review. We raised the issue of trans access to services and how they weren’t fit for purpose. We hosted trans organisations at Stormont. Again, we are much further ahead.
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For all their talk the Green party are not strong on transgender issues at all. Barely mention them.
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J Donaldson claimed in the H of Commons that there were environmental policies in the DUP Manifesto, well I’ve read it and I can’t find any. Perhaps Gaygael has a comment on that?
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I thought it said economic. The DUP manifesto is bereft of Environmental policy.
Quick examination of their record. Arlene refuses to set up Environmental Protection Agency in 2008. In doing so, she stores up a longer term costs for us in cleaning up the mess that the lack of an enforcement agency means.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/cost-of-cleaning-up-illegal-waste-could-leave-ni-bankrupt-35195552.html
We called for Arlene to resign when she granted a fracking licence in an area of land. The owner of said land was…. her husband.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-15873655
We called out ‘perverse incentives’ attached to RHI in 2013, and were given false assurances by (serially incompetent) Minister Foster.
Our sister party co-leader called them dinosaurs in the House of Commons. We are going to enjoy feeding her information which with to lambast the DUP under parliamentary privilege.
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What do you think of Caroline Lucas getting re-elected, were you surprised she did not get beaten by Corbyn.
By the way I saw you had a trans candidate but you did not stand them in a winnable seat.
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Planting a money tree that has now come into fruit was a pretty good environmental move…
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/demographics-are-shifting-towards-a-united-ireland-we-must-have-a-plan-35865222.html
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“New figures released by the Department of the Economy have shown that there are around one-third more Catholic students than Protestant students in Northern Ireland’s higher education institutions.”
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/revealed-47-of-higher-education-students-are-catholics-and-30-protestants-35874614.html
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Reflects the demographic reality of that age group but look forward to gregory and big jim claiming it as some sort of fenian plot or proof of ethnic cleansing/genocide against ussuns.
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Gaygael
The record suggests Sinn Féin have been more progressive than the Greens on transgender and genderfluid issues. Sinn Féin have consistently been more serious about the rights based laws for the Trans community, non-binary people, and the LGBTQI+ more broadly. SF have worked in Dublin to reduce the age at which people have a right of gender self-determination for people to 16 years old via a Gender Recognition Certificate. SF have also proposed a legal path for those under the age of 16 to apply for a Gender Recognition Certificate. SF also have focused on the status of non-binary persons and the right to a Gender Recognition Certificate to persons who do not identify as male/man or female/woman.
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SF have adopted a partitionist approach in this manner it seems, by only pushing these changes in the South.
Great work by Fintan Warfield. Do you know who co-signed the Bill?
Grace O Sullivan (She is a Green).
We also brought a motion for review in the North.
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We are always delighted to work together on progressive causes though.
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Good Boy 😉
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