Below is Fahas take on these ground breaking election results:
Now that the 2017 election is over it is time for an analysis of the results. Below are the actual results:
The total nationalist vote was up by 63,694 to its highest level in any election. The increase was mainly due to increased support for SF. The SF increase had 2 sources. These were previous SF voters who had not voted in recent elections and new voters who voted SF as a protest against Arlene Foster and the DUP. The SDLP vote was up but these were primarily SDLP voters who had not voted in recent elections rather than the protest vote. The Alliance vote was up dramatically and the transfer pattern indicates that the majority came from the Catholic community. The DUP vote was up 22,846. However, this is somewhat misleading since UKIP only competed in 1 constituency and there were fewer PUP, TUV and independent unionists candidates. The total for the minor unionist parties was down over 15,000 and it is likely that 12,000 or more of these voted DUP instead. Nevertheless, the DUP did manage to bring an additional 10,000 new voters. The UUP also had a nice vote increase though it did not result in any additional seats. The Green vote and PBP vote was unchanged despite a 109,000 increase in overall turnout.
As far as turnout is concerned the nationalist voter deficit no longer exists. These are the turnout figures by constituency and are based on the voting age population:
There are 3 constituencies: Foyle, West Belfast and South Belfast, where the nationalist turnout is much higher than unionist turnout. The lower nationalist turnout in South Down, Newry and Armagh, Mid Ulster and West Tyrone disappeared with nationalist turnout equal to unionist. This was directly responsible for the loss of 4 unionist seats in those constituencies. The nationalist turnout in East Antrim, Strangford, Lagan Valley, and East Belfast is still significantly below unionist turnout and resulted in the failure of SF in East Antrim and the SDLP in Strangford to win seats. Fermanagh South Tyrone had a 9% increase in nationalist turnout. It is lower than unionist turnout for 2 reasons. This constituency has the highest unionist turnout of all constituencies and there are also large numbers of EU nationals who vote at a lower rate. The latter also partly explains the lower nationalist turnout in Upper Bann. Overall, nationalist and unionist turnout is equal. It is possible that the nationalist turnout was 54% and the unionist turnout 57%. That is because the School Census indicates an undercount of the Catholic population by 1% which changes the turnout percentages. Native voter turnout is equal among nationalist and unionist voters and the lower nationalist turnout is due to lower turnout among foreign nationals.
These are the winners and loser in the election.
Winners
SF is obviously the #1 winner. Not only did their vote increase by 56,600 to a record level but they almost equalled the DUP total. Their net loss was only 1 seat despite a smaller Assembly with 18 fewer members. Particularly impressive was winning 3 seats in Newry and Armagh, Mid Ulster, West Tyrone and Fermanagh-South Tyrone. They also pulled ahead of the SDLP in Foyle and South Down.
Alliance is the #2 winner. They added 50% to their 2016 total and kept 8 seats despite an Assembly with 18 fewer members. Their totals increased throughout the west and they almost won a seat in South Down. Their only limitation is that they do not appear to have any potential for increased seats other than South Down.
The SDLP is the #3 winner. Their vote increase did keep pace with the overall increase in turnout. They won back a seat from SF in Upper Bann and unexpectedly won in Lagan Valley. They could have won 15 seats. They were within 67 votes of winning a seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone and 225 votes short in Strangford. They did not attract the anti DUP protest vote and their entire vote increase was due to previous stay at home SDLP voters.
Losers
The TUV, UKIP, PUP, Conservatives are the #1 losers. UKIP essentially decided not to compete and the overall vote for minor unionist parties and candidates decreased 15,000 with most of that vote going to the DUP. The anti SF unionist vote is increasingly going to the DUP. These parties would be better off merging with the DUP or disbanding.
The DUP is the #2 loser. It is true that they increased their vote by over 22,000 but the majority of that increase was due to lack of competition from the smaller unionist parties. However they lost 10 seats and only have 1 more seat than SF. They came very close to losing additional seats in Strangford and Foyle and only won those seats because to the failure of SF and Alliance and Green voters to transfer to the SDLP and PBP.
THE UUP is the #3 loser. Despite increasing their overall vote they lost 6 seats and the party leader resigned. They are in danger of having fewer seats than Alliance in future elections and only won Fermanagh South Tyrone due to SDLP transfers.
The Greens and PBP are the #4 losers. Despite a much higher turnout these parties were unable to increase their vote. There appears to be a ceiling to the Green vote though they did keep their 2 MLA’s. The PBP vote collapsed in West Belfast and their pro Brexit stance cost them votes. They also failed to compete in most constituencies.
Now I will look at each constituency in detail.
Foyle
Both the SF and SDLP vote was up but twice as much for SF. PBP finished 660 votes behind the DUP for the final seat. However, there was an undistributed SDLP surplus of 158 votes would have narrowed that to only 500+. There were also 330 SF votes and over 500 Alliance votes that did not transfer to anyone so if these had voted tactically defeat the DUP they would have succeeded. Net loss 1 PBP.
I will now look at the 3 constituencies of West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and Newry-Armagh due to similar demographic and results.
West Tyrone
SF won 3 here and it was not even close as they were ahead of the UUP by 760 votes in the final count. There was also an undistributed SDLP surplus of 300 so the margin would have been higher. Net loss 1 UUP.
Mid Ulster
SF had over 3 quotas here. The SDLP finished 1,200 votes ahead of the UUP and there was an undistributed SF surplus of 270 which would have increased the margin further. Net loss 1 UUP.
Newry and Armagh
SF elected 3 here and their 3rd candidate (Murphy) was 1080 votes ahead of the UUP. There were 64 undistributed SF votes and 606 undistributed DUP votes but this would not have changed the outcome as Murphy still would have won by at least 540 votes. Net loss 1 UUP.
Fermanagh South Tyrone
SF won 3 here but it was very close. At stage 2 Sean Lynch of SF was 62 votes ahead of the SDLP and the SDLP was eliminated with the SDLP transfers electing all 3 SF as well the UUP. There were over 400 Alliance, Green and Labour votes that did not transfer to anyone and these lack of transfers to the SDLP cost them the seat. The one consolation is that some SDLP transfers elected the UUP and resulted in the defeat of Morrow of the DUP. Net loss 1 DUP and 1 SDLP. SF gain.
East Derry
Nationalist turnout was up very significantly from 34% to 50%. This resulted in an additional 3,300 votes for SF, 1,300 for SDLP candidates and another 800 for PBP and Alliance. The media claimed this was a close election with 2 nationalist seats in doubt. However, with a total nationalist electorate of 40% this was never in doubt. There was also the narrative that it was UUP transfers that saved the SDLP. However, in any election there are always UUP transfers to the SDLP. The UUP transfers to the SDLP were up only 338 from 2016 and 100 of these were probably Alliance votes that transferred through the UUP. There were 382 transfers to the SDLP from Claire Sugden and 565 from the DUP. In the end the SDLP defeated the one of the SF candidates by 853 votes but even without the DUP transfers (some of which were tactical) the SDLP would have won. Net loss 1 DUP.
Upper Bann
The nationalist vote was up 10% here with an additional 3,000 for SF, 800 for the SDLP and another 800+ voting Alliance. Again, the media portrayed the win for the SDLP as due to UUP transfers. However, at stage 4, before any UUP transfers came into play, the SDLP were already ahead of Toman of SF by 217 votes. When Dobson of the UUP was eliminated most of her votes went to the UUP but 678 went to the SDLP and 55 to SF. The fact that so many went to SF and the SDLP rather than the UUP indicates that many of the 600+ Alliance-Green that went to Dobson actually subsequently transferred to the SDLP and SF. At that point the SDLP was 873 votes ahead of SF and the transfers of the UUP surplus (Beattie) added another 1864 to that margin. Net loss 1 UUP and 1 SF. SDLP gain.
South Down
The main story here was the massive increase in the SF vote by 6,300 which was totally unexpected. The Alliance Party also doubled their vote from2,200 to 4,500. There was never any possibility of a UUP seat. This was another example where it was thought that a large number of UUP votes would transfer to the SDLP. When the UUP was eliminated 2/3 of their transfers went to the DUP and of the other 1/3 more transferred to Alliance than the SDLP. The SDLP only received 13% of UUP transfers. In the end SF transfers saved the SDLP and they won over Alliance by 738 votes. Net loss 1 UUP.
North Antrim
There was a large increase in the nationalist turnout from 36% to 50% but the unionist turnout was also up. There was never a chance for a SDLP seat here with only 5 seats as the demographics do not exist for 2 nationalist seats. Net loss 1 DUP.
South Antrim
Nationalist turnout was up from 37% to 53% with SF adding 2,300 and the SDLP 650. There was also an Alliance increase of over 2,100. Since the Alliance increase far exceeded the SDLP increase Alliance won easily. Net loss 1 UUP.
East Antrim
The nationalist turnout increased from 35% to 46% but the unionist turnout was also up 5%. SF lost their seat here due to the higher quota with only 5 seats. Some have claimed that with better transfers from the SDLP they would have won. It is true that only 1/3 of SDLP transfers initially went to SF. Subsequent Alliance transfers that originated from the SDLP increased that to ½. Even if another 500 transfers went to SF from the SDLP, SF would have still been 1,000 votes behind the UUP. The only way that SF could have won would be with a nationalist turnout equal to unionist turnout. The UUP picked up a seat due to an additional 2,000 1st preferences. Net loss 1 SF and 1 DUP. UUP gain.
Lagan Valley
The big story here was the SDLP win and nationalist turnout was up from 33% to 44%. Supposedly the SDLP won because of UUP transfers. Apparently Jenny Palmer has been subject to abuse (online and otherwise) because of her alleged role in the defeat of the DUP and election of the SDLP. However, there is no electoral evidence that she helped the SDLP in a greatly significant way compared to historical transfer patterns. When she was eliminated only 309 of her 5095 votes went to the SDLP (6%) and at least 50 of those originated from the Greens and independents. Over 70% of her transfers went to the UUP and 12% to the DUP so her votes stayed in the unionist community. Butler of the UUP then had a surplus of 3,525 of which 41% transferred to the DUP and 31% to the SDLP. The SDLP transfers are up from historical patterns. Usually when a UUP candidate is eliminated from a Belfast area constituency the DUP receive 55% to 60% and the SDLP 20% to 25% of transfers with 20% not transferring to either. The SDLP won by 433 votes so the UUP transfers at the higher rate to the SDLP did make a difference but it was the reluctance of UUP voters to give the DUP any preference that mattered more. Net loss 2 DUP. SDLP gain.
Strangford
Low nationalist turnout cost the SDLP a seat here. Nationalist turnout did increase from 35% to 44% but unionist turnout increased from 48% to 56%. At the final count the SDLP lost to the DUP by 225 votes. The UUP transfers went equally to the SDLP and DUP but 60% of UUP vote did not transfer. There were not enough additional SF and Green non transfers (only 140) to potentially close the gap. Low nationalist turnout cost the SDLP a seat and even a 1% increase in turnout would have made the difference. Net loss 1 UUP
North Down
The main surprise here was the large increase in the nationalist turnout though most of those additional voters voted Green or Alliance. When the Alliance surplus was distributed 55% went to the Greens but the other split 60% unionist and 40% nationalist. I estimated low that 30% of the Alliance vote originated from the Catholic community (historically it is 20%)) but it could have been 40%. Net loss 1 DUP.
East Belfast
No surprises with Alliance winning 2. Net loss 1 DUP.
North Belfast
Total turnout was up 5,000 but it was 3,800 nationalist and 1,000 Alliance. The DUP had a major embarrassment since Nelson McCausland of the DUP was behind Alliance at stage 5 and was eliminated. SF finished 556 ahead of Alliance to secure their 2nd seat. Net loss 1 DUP.
West Belfast
SF won 4 with near perfect balancing. The PBP vote was down significantly but Carroll was still near a quota when the SDLP was eliminated. The SDLP was eliminated because they were 353 votes behind the DUP after stage 2. The total unionist vote was up 130 and the lack of transfers from the UUP and Alliance meant that the SDLP was behind the DUP. In order to win they needed to be ahead of the DUP and then receive 20% of unionist transfers to be ahead of the 4th SF. Net loss 1 SDLP.
South Belfast
SF topped the poll and total turnout was up 6,300. 4,000 of those were nationalist voters with most of the remainder additional Alliance and Green voters. The DUP had no chance of winning 2 here and indeed both their candidates were behind the UUP on the 2nd to last count. The Greens were 1,542 votes ahead of the UUP in the final count but there were 1,490 undistributed DUP surplus so the final result would have been much closer. Net loss 1 DUP.
The nationalist voter apathy that has existed for at least 10 years no longer exists. At this point it is not certain that there will be a new government formed between SF and the DUP at Stormont. The DUP can concede few concessions to SF. If it does otherwise it would be an admission of defeat and would outrage their voter base. The alternative for the DUP is direct rule from London. This would be more than acceptable for the DUP since direct rule is Conservative Party rule with Theresa May instead of Margaret Thatcher. There would be no nationalist input into the governing of Northern Ireland which if fine from the DUP perspective. SF cannot go into government without major concessions from the DUP. To do so otherwise would alienate those additional 56,000 voters who voted SF mainly as a protest against the arrogance of the DUP. At any other time in history SF would object to direct rule. This time may be different. It is in Sinn Fein’s interest to have direct rule by the Conservative Party. The Conservatives will implement Brexit and possible harsh budget cuts for Northern Ireland. In 2 years this would only increase the likelihood of favourable Border Poll result. What would be the results of a Border Poll? It is somewhat speculative at this time but there are some clues from the recent Lucid Talk poll and the actual election results. The Lucid Talk poll has been very accurate for 3 consecutive elections. They obtain their results from a panel that fits the demographics of Northern Ireland. The same voters who were polled on Assembly voting intentions were also polled on preferences for a United Ireland in December 2016. In that poll 95% of nationalist voters are in favour of a United Ireland if Brexit occurs. Only 9% of unionist voters were in favour of a United Ireland if Brexit occurs. The results for Alliance-Green voters were not released. So of the 42.1% of voters who voted for nationalist candidates 40% of that total are in favour of a United Ireland if Brexit occurs. Of the 45.7% of voters who voted for unionist candidates 4% are in favour of a United Ireland if Brexit occurs. The total vote is 44% in favour of a United Ireland and 44% against a United Ireland if Brexit occurs. How the Alliance and Green voters would vote is unknown but it is known from Lucid Talk that 85% of Alliance and Green voters are opposed to Brexit. These voters were 12% of the electorate in the recent election.
The nationalist parties need to begin the negotiation process with EU officials and the Irish government on how to integrate Northern Ireland into the Republic of Ireland. From the EU perspective they will be supportive as they have no incentive to give concessions to the UK in the pending Brexit negotiations. The EU was very supportive when East Germany merged with West Germany. Northern Ireland has only 10% of the population of East Germany. Overall, Ireland is less than 2% of the population of the EU and the EU should be able to help with the financial and trade adjustments that would occur with a United Ireland. From the nationalist perspective it is important to persuade as many Alliance, Green and unionist voters of the benefits of a United Ireland. I recall one Northern Ireland opinion poll on a United Ireland from 15 years ago. The question of a United Ireland was broken down by religious preference. For Catholics, 15% to 20% preferred to remain in the UK. For Protestants 97% preferred to remain in the UK. This poll did ask a unique question for the Protestant voters (not asked of Catholics though). They were asked if a United Ireland was preferred, “acceptable”, “tolerable”, or “unacceptable”. Not surprisingly 60% answered “unacceptable” and 25% “tolerable”. However, 12% answered “acceptable”. It appears that 12% are now in favour of a United Ireland because of Brexit. Including the 3% that were in favour of a United Ireland, 15% of Protestants were in favour or thought it was “acceptable”. That would be 8% of the 53% of voters from the Protestant community who voted in this Assembly election. 4% of those were voters for unionist candidates and 4% voted Alliance or Green. Those are the voters from the Protestant community that the nationalist voters should be targeting in a United Ireland referendum. There is no point in targeting the 60% who consider a United Ireland “unacceptable” though it would be worth persuading those 25% who consider a United Ireland “tolerable”.
A border poll will bring out many more voters than the Assembly election. It will probably be 80% of the voting age population if it was held in 2020. That would be 1,200,000 voters or 400,000 more than the Assembly. These are mainly voters that have limited interest in politics. The turnout will not be greater than 80%. The GFA referendum had an 80% turnout of the voting age population. Even though the GFA meant the end of 30 years of violence in Northern Ireland 20% of the voting age population could not be motivated to vote. The Scottish referendum on independence also had an 80% turnout of the voting age population. Even though this was a vote on independence 20% of the population could not be motivated vote.
One alternative that has not been mentioned if there is no agreement to create a new government at Stormont would be to change the GFA so a government could be formed. This would involve abolishing community designations, abolishing mandatory power sharing, no weighted majorities and no petition of concern and only a First Minster and no Deputy First Minister. The resulting government would be a loose voluntary coalition. Instead of Arlene Foster as a First Minister, SF and the SDLP could nominate Naomi Long or Stephen Agnew as First Minister. The vote would be 50 to 40 and Arlene Foster would lose. If there was a vote on an Irish Language Act or same sex marriage the vote would be 50 to 40 and the measures would pass.
Something to think about as an alternative to the current unstable setup.
"We in coming days may be" 
I’m old enough to remember a British government minister calling Gerry Adams Mr 10%. Now they are near 30%. I don’t see the point in the APNI. And now the talk is of Unionist Unity I hope it happens we all might be living in a United Ireland by Christmas at this rate.
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I’d advise SF to look hard at why these voters don’t come out for them otherwise they will retreat again. SF have a fairly divisive brand. They either need the pbp on one side and/or a better SDLP on the other to bring the range of voters out. Also take heed of the Catholic Alliance voters that don’t transfer. Transferring is their Achilles heel all over the island.
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Faha, I am absolutely in love with you. Brilliant stuff, many thanks xx
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Had there been direct rule from day one of Project Ulster back in 1920 then the entire political history might have been different.
Or maybe not.
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No doubt the recent vote completely spooked the unionists.
Not because of Irish Unity but because non unionists parties are now the majority not unlike Belfast City Council.
That wasn’t suppose to happen, was it?
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Faha, excellent stuff.
Hopefully this piece will be referenced by the ‘proper’ media. The key statistic for me is that that Nat and Unionist turnout is roughly the same. in the ‘press’ it has been stated as fact that is greater Nat turnout won the election. Clearly it is greater than the last time but not greater than Unionist turnout . I think this misconception has encouraged the SOS to talk of another election. I think that might be dangerous with the stakes so high there could well be an increase in intimidation.
If I have a quibble with your post(no change there) it is foreign nationals based on religion as part of the Nat vote though you do separate them in the following statement
“Native voter turnout is equal among nationalist and unionist voters and the lower nationalist turnout is due to lower turnout among foreign nationals.”
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excuse me if i am missing something here, but is this whole talk about a United Ireland not a bit premature?
Should we not wait and see what sort of Brexit deal the UK will get?
Should be not wait and see will there be a hard border and customs installed again? – obviously this will create up uprising of the election sort, should we not wait until then?
Lets be honest, i dont think SF’s election success was a vote todays a UI, it was a vote against the DUP etc.
someone correct me if i am wrong, but i think this UI talk could be 2 years too early.
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The game has changed and SF know it’s about re-unification now. Notice that SF is negotiating directly with the UK govt not the DUP. The Brokenshire’s “waffle, waffle, waffle” meeting and continuing criticism of legacy investigations funding would suggest to me that Brexit and the Dáil are the priorities to delivering re-unification. Stormont is something Unionism will want to cling to to prevent it, or as a security blanket after.
SF becoming the 2nd largest party in the polls this past week is a signal that the hunger for re-unification in the south is awaking. SF ride that bull well and they will be in govt in 2-3 years, perhaps as the senior partner. Either way they will want to be in govt for the Brexit negotiations.
In four to five years Northern Ireland will be gone 🙂
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thats rubbish gendjinn, thats wishful thinking. SF surge in votes was clearly against the DUP. Is it not too early to talk about a UI until we see what this Brexit thing entails, or if it will result in a hard border at all?
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Yeah, that was about the response after the GFA when us anoraks predicted that demographic parity would be reached in the mid teens. That some in SF tried to sell the idea of a UI by 2016 is neither here nor there, us anoraks pointed to this date for demographic parity. Lo it came to pass and now it is a turn out battle, one Nationalism is positioned to continue winning.
In five years when you are sitting in a United Ireland, remember how you ignored Cassandra again. Or do you think that Unionism is about to embark on a massive breeding program to outvote themm’uns?
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I think you are right that it was anti DUP rather than a vote for SF. It was the nat voters coming out who normally wouldn’t be motivated by the normal SF manifesto. I hope they pull the right message from it and don’t waste the opportunity.
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I see SF have called for a border poll. Following the SNP leader calling for a new referendum this morning.
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Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said Wales should be given a vote if Scotland votes in favour of leaving the UK.
She said it could signal “the end of the UK as a state” and “a national debate to explore all of the options” would be needed in Wales.
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I don’t know why she’s asking for a vote. Wales is simply stapled onto England – high UKIP representation and a majority for Brexit. They’ve been utterly colonised.
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I’d quite like to see a non unionist first minister and 46 nationalist MLAs.
Just for a laugh.
Am i a bad person?
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This analysis is merely wishful thinking .The fact is
Many unionists did not vote because of disillusionment with RHI
The nationalist/republican vote fell by 4% in 2016 and merely reverted to the norm
The nationalist /republican % vote was lower than in 2003 2007 and 2011
It was less than 40%
It equates Catholic vote = nationalist vote which has never been the case
It suggests that Brexit will change unionist votes economic factors will overrule identity. This has never been the case in Ireland or indeed the Brexit vote when English nationalism trumped the economic losses
http://northdownindependent.com/united-ireland-inevitable/
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‘Many unionists did not vote because of disillusionment with RHI’ – Yet the raw figures show no drop at all in the actual Unionist vote, it actually went up!!!
It is a little simplistic to say the SF and SDLP vote is still only 40% without taking into account 2% vote for anti-partition PBP, ignoring the huge increase in vote for independents and small parties during that time and also not acknowledging that the Greens and Alliance voters although maybe not huge supporters of a UI are probably not dead against it either. No sane person thinks a UI will happen next year but its a damn sight closer than it was even 6 months ago and will likely be even closer once the clusterf*ck of Brexit takes effect. 12 mths ago a UI looked at at least 30 yrs away. Now with a couple of events such as brexit and indy ref 2 it could only be a fraction of that.
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We heard exactly the same predictions after the first Assembly election in1998 when the combined nat/rep vote was virtually identical to last weeks. In the 20 years since there has been no significant and the so called surge in 2017 just compensates for the 4% loss in 2016.This surge resulted from the incompetence and corruption of the DUP and their appalling comments on the Irish language etc. It was not motivated by an increase in support for UI
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In fairness the late nineties and early noughties the nationalist turnout was huge and would have been higher than the unionist turnout compared to this election where turnout was about the same contrary to the rubbish being spouted in the newspapers. Even looking at your own example of the 1998 election the Unionist % share has fallen by at least 5%. If people only wanted to give DUP a bloody nose they could have voted for any number of parties without voting for SF or SDLP. Like I said earlier a UI isnt happening straight away but people are starting to talk about it and thats a big move forward in only a few months. I myself after AE 16 thought that nationalism had .crumbled but events can change things very quickly
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Then you will be supporting calls for a border poll, given how confidant you are that Unionism will win decisively.
Unless of course, you know, all that you spouted there is BS designed to frustrate a border poll.
So which is it? Confidant and supporting a border poll or willing to admit the reality that the unfree six are on a fast track to freedom within five years?
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Valid points, Brian Wilson.
Although it depends on how you view it.
If the whole point a 100 years years back was to create a statelet with an inbuilt unionist party voting majority, then it’s starting to look a bit frayed at the edges.
As for economics v hard core Ulster Loyalism then i’d guess it’s a non starter going by history.
It’s option time long term for unionists.
Stay and except politically you are a minority in Project Ulster with a rainbow majority.
40 DUP/UUP/TUV or less long term v 50+ SF/SDLP/PBP/Alliance/Green.
Probably most unionist would just except it as long the union is safe.
Other options would be reparation or leave.
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but sure the sizable Protestant vote in Monaghan, Cavan and Donegal accepted the southern state, why cant unionists in the North accept the inevitable?
I know 10,000 people in Monaghan signed the Ulster Covenant. Now, that time, it was far better economically to be part of the UK, so those 10,000 people definitely had a point.
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The only thing keeping the North in the UK is the welfare state. And the NHS is on the verge of collapse with doctors threatening to resign. Just wait to Brexit begins to bite the cuts will not be in the South of England will they?
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I am not against a border poll but as a political scientist on all the evidence available (eg Life and Times ,BBC surveys)I believe at present and for the forseeable future there would be a comfortable majority to remain part of the UK .Brexit and Tory austerity may change some unionist thinking but it is unlikely to be significant
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Ah Life and times surveys and the BBC not exactly credible sources are they? Always talking up Alliance and doing down SF and the SDLP.
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Calling people crocodiles and fish wives is not the language of Unionist outreach is it?
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I would seriously query the definitions/assumptions of this article while I suspect it is based on equating Catholic votes and nationalist votes .I will only comment on my own constituency of North Down where the analysis Is clearly rubbish It states
The main surprise here was the large increase in the nationalist turnout though most of those additional voters voted Green or Alliance
If they vote Green or Alliance they are not nationalist votes .The total nat/rep vote was only 3.4% up from the 2.2% in 2016
When the Alliance surplus was distributed 55% went to the Greens but the other split 60% unionist and 40% nationalist. I estimated low that 30% of the Alliance vote originated from the Catholic community (historically it is 20%)) but it could have been 40%
Some warped and confused thinking here the fact was that only 14.3% of Alliance transfers went to SDLP/SF. Seems again to overestimate the Catholic % of Alliance vote but then assume they are nationalists which in most cases is not true
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Here are the actual distributions of the Alliance Surplus Brian:
AGNEW, Steven 3941
CARTER, Chris 76
CHAMBERS, Alan
CUDWORTH, William 1052
DUNNE, Gordon Mervyn
EASTON, Alex
FARRY, Stephen Anthony
KENNEDY, Melanie 400
MAXWELL, Kieran 119
MCNEILL, Caoímhe 934
REYNOLDS, Gavan Aloysius 21
SHIVERS, Frank 211
Transferable Totals (h) 6754
Non- transferable papers (I) 260
Total papers/Surplus (d) & (c) 7014
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Exactly what I said the nat/Rep transfers from Alliance was 14%
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Brian, Nationalist transfers were 15.6% (SF and SDLP), Plus their first preference votes were up by 57.5% for SDLP and 96.74% for SF on last May
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I would have to agree with Brian Wilson.
Voting in an Assembly poll and a Border poll are two entirely different things.
I saw at street level the 2014 Scottish Referendum.
Cosy Liberals (Alliance Party cousins) who supported full Home Rule for a 100 years became rabid unionists overnight.
As for Jim Murphy (Labour Party) and Celtic season ticket, don’t even go there.
A lot of these folks were shown to be as pro British as any Paisleyite.
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I agree. Its too early to call a border poll, there is no way it would pass, that latest vote was an anti-dup vote.
A border poll would be counterproductive. As a border resident who crosses the border several times a day, its only until a hard border is implemented, border check points are installed, people are queing at the border, people are being harassed by customs/Army etc – its only then a border poll should be called.
Remember, we dont know the effects of Brexit yet. I wasnt stopped going to work this morning. ..
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There is merit in the position that it will take a year or two of hard border to deliver a definite majority in a border poll.
But, let’s throw the Brits a few more anchors while they are trying to deal with Brexit. Now they have to deal with a Scottish ref in the last six months of negotiations, let’s aim to have a border poll here too at the same time.
In fact, it is time for everyone in the former British empire to see what anchors they can throw the Brits in the last six months of their attempt to negotiate a decent Brexit deal. Time to return the serve to the feckers and help them sink beneath the waves.
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/rhi-scandal/renewable-heating-incentive-claimants-full-list-35537381.html
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