Well folks,
After a relatively quiet Christmas it’s election time again as things currently stand at the time of writing. 
I think it’s time we swung into action again here on the blog.
The quote above may be loosely translated as “Let the games begin” (With thanks to Sean South) by Julius Caesar
There is little point in me going over the political analysis as to where we are at, the web and the MSM are awash with that, although my own opinion would be very much that this election has come about as a result of what I would term traditional Unionist behaviours. Arrogance, hubris, triumphalism and entitlement.
Quite simply, I think nationalist inclined voters have had enough.
In a nutshell, as I read earlier in a since re-edited piece in a unionist inclined newspaper – Unionist politicians keep making the same basic mistake of saying no and then having to renegotiate from a position of weakness, inevitably getting a worse deal.
And so to the upcoming elections.
Firstly the reduction in seats from 108 to 90. This will affect both the last elected candidates last time round in particular and will influence the number of candidates selected by the parties. The obvious immediate effect will be to increase the quotas for each seat.
Secondly, the dynamic in this election will be crucial in terms of the response by the electorate:
- Will Unionists desert the DUP in significant numbers?
- Who would benefit from such a reaction (UUP/ TUV/ Independents/ Alliance etc)
- Will the Nationalist electorate turn up this time?
- Will SF’s seizing of the initiative be enough to re-energise their vote?
- Will there be any significant cross community/ party transfers that signal a change in electoral mood and allegiences?
It’s early days and anything could happen but I’m preparing a constituency analysis of the possibilities.
In the meantime, here are last Mays results again as a reminder along with some comments.
Belfast North – SF elected first, everyone else on the 11th count!
Results: DUP 3 SF 2 SDLP 1
Belfast South Final seat a run off between UUP/ DUP and Greens
Results: APNI 1 SF 1 DUP 2 SDLP 1 Green 1
Belfast West Final seat between SDLP and SF
Results: PBPA 1 SF 4 SDLP 1
East Antrim – Final seat will be likely between SF and DUP
Results: DUP 3 UUP 1 APNI 1 SF 1
East Londonderry – I’m going to call this one, SF may well take Claire Sugdens seat
Results: DUP 3 SF 1 SDLP 1 Independent 1
Fermanagh & South Tyrone – As always a fascinating constituency but SF made a complete mess of this last may by running 4 candidates, if they run three they could win 3
Results: DUP 2; SF 2; UUP 1; SDLP 1
Newry & Armagh – UUP possibly vulnerable
Results: DUP 1 SF 3 UUP 1 SDLP 1
North Antrim – UUP Scraped in here last time in last place – Huge local vote for Daithi McKay may affect SF vote
Results: TUV 1 DUP 3 UUP 1 SF 1
Foyle – Big Q here is if Eamonn of PFP holds his seat at expense of SF
Results: DUP 1 SF 2, SDLP 2, PBPA 1
Lagan Valley – Alliance could be vulnerable here
Results: APNI 1, UUP 2, DUP 3
Mid Ulster – UUP need a big swing here to take the DUP seat
Results: SDLP 1 SF 3 UUP 1 DUP 1
North Down –DUP Last seat very vulnerable here
Results: APNI 1 DUP 3 UUP 1 Green 1
South Antrim –Alliance and DUP vulnerable here
Range of likely results: DUP 3 APNI 1 UUP 1 SF 1
South Down – Likely UUP Loss
Results: SF 2 SDLP 2 DUP 1 UUP 1
Strangford – Two words – Jonathon Bell, will he stand and if so on what platform and at whos expense (DUP)?
Results: DUP 3 APNI 1 UUP 2
Upper Bann –Probably a fight between SDLP / SF for final seat
Results: DUP 2 SF 2 UUP 2
West Tyrone –If SF run 3 either DUP/ UUP or SDLP will lose out
Results: SF 3 DUP 1 UUP 1 SDLP 1
In Conclusion, there are a lot of variables and unknowns as well as few twists and turns ahead no doubt. I don’t doubt that the DUP will try to return things to the “vote Arlene and keep themmuns out” narrative of the last election. That has already started.
My own instinct is that this time may be different.
Faha is preparing a detailed analysis for the constituencies and this old blog will be cranking up a few gears in the weeks ahead.
"We in coming days may be" 
I get the feeling that the DUP selection process will be the most brutal. They may end up losing seats because they run too many candidates.
Without strong RHI headwinds the DUP lose about 5 or 6 seats at best. Still enough for petition of concern.
Going to be an interesting year alright.
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Here’s hoping for real change. Is a nationalist first minister possible with a maximised nationalist vote? Surely now is the time for stay-at-home voters of SF, SDLP, etc. to get out and hit unreformed party unionism where it hurts. It’s imperative that every northern nationalist with a vote actually votes, if that is what is on the cards.
To continue the Latin theme, I’m ready for a post-election declaration by Irish nationalism of venimus, vidimus, vicimus! 😉
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In spite of all I will not be voting as SF will use it to introduce same sex marriage and abortion.
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So you would place faith before freedom? I don’t mean to offend but I find that incomprehensible.
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Yes – I am obliged to – For what doth it profit a man, if he gain the whole world, and suffer the loss of his own soul? Or what exchange shall a man give for his soul?
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Croiteir,
My own opinion, as you may know, is that it is not for SF to be a Catholic party any more than the DUP to be a Free Presbyterian Party. If that prevents you voting on personal religious grounds, that is a matter for you and I fully respect that.
Unfortunately I see no options for you voting wise except the DUP on the narrow grounds you outline. I regret that
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I respect what you say, Croiteir, but I, too, find that attitude unfortunate.
Political parties (and even Indos) present a range of policies that we accept as a package. No doubt can be unsure about a particular policy but we generally vote on the package.
Many Christians all over the world obviously vote upon that basis (otherwise they wouldn’t vote) and I would be loathe to say they are hypocrites. They obviously make a decision based on what they think best overall.
I agree with BD that, without a Nationalist party that represents your outlook, it’s regrettable that the DUP probably best suits you.
At this potentially momentous election where we can register a protest at their incompetence and arrogant irresponsibility, it is unfortunate that we cannot rely on your vote, even in protest at sending a message that we are not second class citizens.
But you have your view and that must be respected. In saying all that, I wish you well, a chara.
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I believe that you are both correct in your assertion, at least from the social side of thing, that the party that best reflects my view is the DUP. And I know some, not many, who hold their noses and who vote for them solely on those points. I would not do that either. This is not an easily held position. I clearly, as anyone who follows any of my posts, would want to displace unionism from its privileged position. In my view the party that is best placed to do that is Sinn Fein. However until we see a party emerge that represents nationalists who hold my views I must abstain from voting.
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Although not sharing your views on abortion I think it is a healthy sign that you withhold your vote from a party that doesn’t represent what for you is an important moral principle. Politics is not just about constitutional issues and it is not inconceivalbe(no pun intended) that there an Orange and Green anti abortion party – might do as well as the Greens. Might make Stormo more interesting and relevant…
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Endame has posted an interesting link to the latest lucid poll a poll whch usually has support for a UI at some joke level of 10-20% however brexit seems to have pushed that up to 45% and thats before the latest debacle where the DUP have tried lording it over everyone despite their gross incompetence yet again. If only nationalists would get out and vote then things really could get interesting
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
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Much as I’d like to believe it, I think we should be a bit skeptical about that Lucid Talk poll showing UI support at 45%.
When Don’t Knows are stripped out most polls over the years have shown UI support at best at about 30-35% and to be fair at ridiculous levels of 4%.
Even allowing for Brexit and RHI, I don’t see how an extra 10% of people in such a heavily polarised society could have changed their minds on something so fundamental. Especially as the effects of Brexit are unknown and are in the future, while in the case of the North, via Irish citizenship, is protected from the social impacts of the decision.
I am intrigued by the 8% of self declared unionists in the poll who support UI in the EU. Who are the 8% – for they’ve certainly been keeping their head down; if they exist at all.
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The 2014 Lucid Poll had support for a United Ireland at 40%. The 2015 RTE/BBC poll was 41% and this latest one is 44%. Demographics and economics (Brexit) means we will be able to win a referendum in a decade or so.
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The problem that I have with those polls are that are based on the super long term – UI in 20 years / in your lifetime.
Better to have people with a vague nationalist sentiment than not but at the same time I don’t know if they would reliably turn out and vote if there was a referendum in the morning.
On demographics I’ve always been a bit pessimistic. I live in mid-Ulster and I’ve seen a generation of Catholic-background children brought up by apolitical parents who go out of their way to avoid politics. Not unionist per se more don’t-rock-the-boat types which favours the status quo. Like I’d a nephew telling me that he learnt in secondary school that Captain O’Neill was a moderate.
I disagree with the analysis, but if you had polled people in say 2010 and asked what would be different in a UI they might have said we’d have political representation at a national level and no NHS. Otherwise what difference could there be seeing as we’re all in a borderless EU.
That’s why I think Brexit is nationalism’s greatest chance. It will demonstrate starkly that there is difference between continuing with partition and a UI.
Economically, the total failure of Partition to deliver for the North is going to be laid bare when the job losses begin.
Politically, it will be clear that in a U.K. dominated by south of England Tories the North carries no weigh.
That situation might be tolerable if the North can continue to enjoy the quality of services it has currently.
That’s contingent on Westminster having the money and the Tories having the will to spend it here.
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Is British/Irish joint Authority the only option for the North. The collapse of Stormont after Martin McGuinness resignation has left a political vacuum which needs filling. The SDLP leader has discussed the issue with the Irish Government. A return to direct rule from London is not a option for Nationalists who tried to make Stormont work despite every roadblock placed in their way.
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Certainly not the only option Hobo. although one of the possibilities.
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One thing is for sure: if the DUP increase their vote it will put to bed the lie that those of a unionist persuasion want fairness and equality in the north. It will prove once and for all whether they are totally bigoted and will forgive and excuse anything ‘their side’ does in order to reinforce some form of superiority. Are the ‘unionist’ community going to embrace mature politics for once?
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Great to see you back bangordub, i missed you posting to your blog, i have it saved as one of my daily reads.
Now is the time to strike and kill the serpent that is the DUP.
At the time i write this, the DUP have done a u-turn on the Liofa grant. They suddenly found the money. If anything that is a complete slap in the face,, its like the bully gave the ball back to the children.
Now SF need to stand firm. They need not take that olive branch, that cloaked dagger. They must insist on an election.
I know SF are under pressure from both governments not to have an election. listening to the Late Debate on Tuesday night with Cormac O Hara, the southern government are far more concerned about Brexit. They want a government in place. Rightly so, i agree with them.
But does Westminister give a damn if the assembly is in place or not? Would it have any affect on Brexit?
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Thanks for your kind words Oriel,
The DUP rowing back merely emphasises the nature of what they did in the first place
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Surely ” The die is cast” is the correct translation! A rubicon moment for SF indeed. Let’s hope by the Ides of March that fate has not been fickle.
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I’ll give you that – it was a loose translation but the intention was clear!
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I think you might be a bit previous about East Londonderry bangordub. Last year sf and sdlp had only around 31% of the vote between them which is just less that 2 quotas in the new 5 seater constituency. What is more likely is that Claire Sugden or the third Dup candidate will lose out. My hunch is that TUV transfers would push the last dup candidate in unless we have a seismic shift to Claire because of RHI. However I await Faha’s predictions.
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I think Claire could be in trouble, the key point in this election however will be if the pro nationalist electorate turn out. Faha is waiting for the candidates to be announced before giving his analysis by the way. Regarding the chances of SF taking the seat, I agree it’s an outside chance but I think it’s an interesting one.
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SF is working hard to retain all its seats in West and North Belfast as well as Upper Bann and West Tyrone. SF is seen as a very strong political party.
Better with Sinn Féin as the slogan goes!
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I would lie to think they are, but the are not seen as a strong party but as the party of pushover nationalism, which has got them to this juncture. Have you analysis beyond sloganising?
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I do not accept this.
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Need I say more?
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“As the slogan goes…” No offence, but maybe in your posts here you could try doing better than slogans?
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Antain the SDLP are in a poor state. They barely exist in Tyrone. People have seen the truth about SDLP politicians – in it for themselves with no commitment.
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Can we please avoid turning the arguments here into a SF and SDLP electoral battle? Particularly with unsubstantiated opinions. I’m trying to not block anyone
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Might not be a bad idea though I see fitzjames has a zero tolerance policy and has blocked gay gael because he is a green candidate even though his comments are you usually pretty sensible.
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Sad news: Martin McGuinness has resigned as a result of ill health – and Gerry Adams to do so (at an unspecific time in the future) as part of a well-thought-through succession strategy determined years ago.
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MMG says next leader of SF in north will be an inspiring choice, makes me think it is Conor Murphy.
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Are you having a laugh? Conor Murphy an inspiring choice?
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Now you are trolling.
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Oops. How did that happen! Sorry I actually meant to say Michelle O’Neill.
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We will call that the Kearney defence
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West Tyrone will be an interesting one. SDLP had a lot of disgruntled activists here last time unhappy they were running McCrossan. I wonder if they will rally round. I would be happy if they lose the seat but I have a feeling he will get in again.
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I appreciated those generous words about Martin McGuiness spoken by Ian Paisley last night
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I hear that PBP are running two in West Belfast. They must be getting positive feedback or they wouldn’t do this. If they won that extra seat it could be at the expense of Alex Attwood.
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Must be the first case anywhere of a new party running two candidates when the number of seats available has been reduced by one. Makes Sinn Feins decision to run 4 candidates in Fermanagh and Sth Tyrone last year look smart. They risk losing the seat gained just last year by Carroll by splitting the violence against a higher quota required.
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I have a feeling that Alex Attwood will hold his seat and Gerry Carroll will build his vote and that SF will lose the seat in this constitutency going down from 4 to 3.
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SDLP – would you care to expand on your “feelings”? At this stage we all know about the SDLP winning everything in sight but something a little more based in fact supporting your assertions may be helpful
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Yes Bangordub it is based on my own assessment of the recent performance of SF in government and the SDLP in opposition. I think that some voters are thinking that it is time for a change.
It is worth noting that Colm Eastwood was out campaigning in West Belfast over the weekend and I am sure that many people in West Belfast will be fed up with poor performance of SF in the Executive.
The SDLP/Greens/UUP/All are not part of dysfunctional Exec. Look what happened only 6 months after SDLP/UUP/All left
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Vote not violence, sorry
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William I think they must be very confident but all they are is a protest party quite honestly.
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Probably will vote SDLP this time they are marginally better than SF in terms of catholic values. Will not transfer though.
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Bangordub, you have successfully ran an intelligent, interesting and mature site for a good few years now. The debate has always been respectful, factual and dignified. I’m not sure how you managed to keep the gobshites away for so long. I think you just need to be harsh and start blocking people. You don’t want this site to go downhill.
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It is good to hear that you will be voting for the SDLP. I never give advice as to how to transfer – that is up to you.
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BD, Great to see you back. Looking forward to Faha’s analysis.
Haven’t seen any analysis of how the DUP vote might fracture – which is most interesting aspect (for me at least) in this election. Can the UUP fight back and can the sincere (sounding) words of Ian Junior plus the RHI allow for the the TUV to edge up a bit. Interesting when and if opinion polls start to point towards DUP slippage.
Probably not much set to change on the Nat side. PBPA should keep SF on their toes and (hopefully)retain their seats.
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I would hope to see SDLP holding up. Interesting to see on the news that John Dallat is standing again. Can’t help but feel that SDLP will be able to hold on to its seats and maybe Dolores can come back in Upper Bann now that the SF candidate has decided not to stand again.
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Seriously SDLP activist – this is not the place for your blatant electioneering, please feel welcome to contribute to the debate but any further obvious plugs will not be approved
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I do come naturally from an SDLP angle I hope that is okay here.
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That’s fine and obvious from your title, This site is not the place for engaging in bunfights or party specific point scoring though. I let some of your comments through but frankly, we now know you don’t like SF very much and you’re up for SDLP candidates in every constituency. It serves no purpose constantly making the same points
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What was wrong with my analysis on Mid Ulster? It was quite objective I thought.
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Tell me this – will Dallat hand over the near 50000 he got for retiring from Stormont 8 months ago? This needs looked at, along with paying huge money for SPADS and the like.
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Not sure. By the way what is your prediction for SF in East Antrim. Did you hear of the local difficulty they had in Carnlough recently?
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Oliver is toast in my opinion, cannot see how he can win his seat. What local difficulty do you mean in the Irish answer to the Bay of Capri?
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Can I make a start on constituency predictions with Mid Ulster. The elevation of Michelle O’Neill will I think be enough to power SF to retain all 3 seats. There are 2 safe SF seats and one for DUP. The last 2 seats are between SF, SDLP and Uup. If the Nationalist electorate recovers in any way then the Uup will lose out. If unionists hold two here then we should forget about demographics for the next 20 years
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Everything is SDLP good, sf bad with this kid! The last election was particularly bad for both SF and SDLP. Mid Ulster was one of the few constituencies were the SDLP increased their percentage thanks to the ever popular and personable Patsy McGlone. I hope he will be returned. The SF decline in Mid Ulster was no doubt exacerbated by the loss of Martin McGuinness. I think that the higher profile of Mrs O’Neill should help, and I think that recent developments should galvanize Nats to get back out and vote.
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Mid Ulster carve-up could hinge on (Nationalist) turnout with the Michelle O’Neill leadership factor one to watch. Based on the 2016 Assembly result, there are still 2 Unionist seats here but only just. The 2nd Unionist (UUP) seat could come under threat in the event of a higher Nationalist vote and assuming the usual SF tight vote management.
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Has anyone seen any analysis / opinion poll of the possibility of the fracturing of the DUP vote?
Had a very irreverent/improper thought that perhaps someone close to Marty had a ‘dodgy’ boiler – couldnt be in his house as that would be spotted in the bogside.
Have SF and or the SDLP confirmed that neither of their parties have any elected members with ‘dodgy’ boilers? This type of cutehoorism is unlikely to be confined exclusively to the DUP – although that is where the vast majority of the blame seems to lie.
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Sammy McNally I do not think that SF have any involvement whatsoever in RHI and in fact SF have taken a very strong stand on the issue. I think SF’s position will have been noted and appreciated strongly by the electorate on the doorstep. And indeed Catholics now undoubtedly form a majority in the population — as (i) the Catholic birth rate exceeds the Protestant birth rate, and as (ii) more young Protestants emigrate to Scotland to go to university and never come back, and as (iii) far more Protestants than Catholics die each year due to their higher representation in the elderly population — we should expect to see SF make a real step forward electorally in this election and in future elections make real gains as (I)-(iii) all kick in to play. So this is an election that really will make a huge difference in terms of SF’s political analysis and mandate and we can expect that the next election after this will have even greater gains.
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Yes, lets hope the RHI muck does not spread itself over SF as well.
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It will not.
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Personally I prefer to wait and hear from SF first.
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/sinn-fein-slow-to-clarify-if-any-representatives-in-rhi-1-7789171
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The SDLP is in the clear on RHI:
“No SDLP public representatives are beneficiaries of the Renewable Heat Incentive scheme. One councillor’s brother lodged a successful application in February 2016 but will not benefit from the terms of the scheme which allow individuals to profit from burning wood pellets.“
Read more at: http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/sinn-fein-slow-to-clarify-if-any-representatives-in-rhi-1-7789171
As you say it will be interesting to see if SF are in the clear.
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Michelle Gildernew brother is in the frame…
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Sammy, that news is 5 weeks old.
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SF knew about this a year ago – so the question I have is why they kept quiet?
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Early predictions. The SDLP are asking for people to transfer to the UUP and boasting about voting in an English Parliament. No wonder their vote will continue its trajectory downward. SF will rise on a slightly increased Nationalist turnout but it will be another disappointing election for Nationalism overall. The DUP will loose around 15% of its first preference vote due to RHI corruption, taking ithem below 30 seats. SF may be the largest party in terms of votes but DUP will have more seats as Unionists will transfer to each other more than Nationalists. All party talks after the election will fail as as DUP & Brit government will not agree to full implementation of previous agreements. A long period of direct rule will follow with greater Irish government involvement.
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Sinn Fein has known about RHI scandal for a year & didn’t collapse Stormont. Moreover SF were the only party opposed to a public inquiry.
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That is pure nonsense, SDLP Activist.
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Interesting material from the latest Labour Survey, ably covered in ‘Endgame in Ulster’ but very starkly expressed in this UTV report:
“The report added that between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of the population aged 16 and over who reported as Protestant had decreased by 12 percentage points from 56% to 44%.
The proportion who reported as Catholic increased by six percentage points from 38% to 44%.”.
In other words, a 18% swing in 25 years. I imagine that the figures for the under 16s won’t make pleasant reading for long-term Unionist strategists. They have to change tack – are they capable of it?
http://www.itv.com/news/utv/update/2017-01-25/catholic-and-protestant-unemployment-rates-equal/
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We already know the answer to that question – Catholic-background economic-Unionists.
Peter Robinson gave a leader’s speech at the DUP conference specifically referring to them.
Even in a best case scenario the price of putting the Union’s fate in Catholic hands meant an end to God and Ulster orangism – see for example the Fleg protests and parades being rerouted.
Of course Brexit might create a worst case scenario.
What does a Catholic-background economic-unionist do when he loses his job?
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Any logical person in the North from whatever background who thinks they would be economically better off in the UK or especially a UK outside the EU clearly does not know what they are talking about.
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2017/01/irish-unity-makes-economic-sense.html?m=1
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Any logical person etc – tell that to a Catholic working in the NI Civil Service with children in schools with free textbooks and maybe their partner getting free treatment in the NHS.
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Tell them the children’s allowance of €140 per month more than covers a few books or savings from not having a council tax and that health care under the HSE is also free.
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They are reporting the the population aged 16 and over with both communities at 44%. The big story is that Catholics in 2015 accounted for 46% of the Working Age Population vs 40% of Protestant. First Labour Force Survey to show a Catholic plurality.
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One worry is that a growing proportion of people are self-defining as belonging to neither of the two communities
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Ditching religion is on balance a good thing – as a Republican I hope people can ditch the religion but keep their Irish identity. The Catholic Church since the foundation of the Southern state has to borrow a term from yesteryear been a -thundering disgrace’ – not only hijacking (via Dev) the secular ethos of Republicanism but organising and covering up a paedophile scandal on an industrial scale. The Catholic Church should not be allowed anywhere near schools.
People north or south not labelling themselves by their religion is a big positive.
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I think it is a worry. After all if 12 % now then it could rise to 20% tomorrow and so on. Then there would be greater difficulty telling what those 20% are and figuring out whether a UI is likely.
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author32 – I agree many Nats and Republicans are in denial about the economic case for Unionism.
Occasionally it is debated openly a SF spokesman (a couple of years ago) was on Irish Radio arguing about how much better the NHS was than the Health service in the South. Not sure if he had his arshe kicked for letting the cat out of the bag – but until this type of proper discussion takes place – then much of the demographics being discussed will be academic. And saying but it will be better in a UI (ie promises promises) is not going to convince anybody that it will come to pass.
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Sammy Unfortunately some of the southern governments have not prioritised Catholic values In recent years. If they were to return to catholic values I would be more inclined to vote for a UI.
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I certainly dont want a UI based on Catholic values – we tried that with the boy Dev et al and that left us with a a very unhealthy Church influence which we are just about shaking off.
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You are.wrong in my view. For me that would be the main reason for wanting a UI . Catholic values but also no discrimination against catholics.and hopefully fewer parades that are anti catholic. Etc etc.
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Southern Governments aren’t your problem, Catholic Voter – it’s the people. They toppled the Bishops years ago and they aren’t going to let them crawl back to the top again. It’s cultural now – people don’t defer to Catholic dogma anymore.
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You are touching on something that the anti Catholic Republicans, not secular, but anti Catholic, are not getting. They believe on one hand that Catholics will vote for a united Ireland as that was, by and large, been the paradigm. They take us for granted. They ignore that quite a number of Catholics are not voting for them now, the number will grow. Catholics, and I mean Catholics who practice their religion, will be looking at the options and if it means going into a secular Republic that wants to remove their religious liberties then they simply will not vote for it.
Ulster is doomed, but so would a Republic that seeks to see the state interfere with their religion, unification is also doomed.
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No chance. Ireland is now a secular state and Mass a trendy thing to do at Christmas. The only chance of reversing that is a United Ireland led by a FF-DUP coalition and that ain’t happening anytime soon.
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“Ulster is doomed, but so would a Republic that seeks to see the state interfere with their religion, unification is also doomed.”
A secular state doesn’t interfere with your or anyone else’s religion – it simply refuses to privilege it. There is a difference.
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What we DONT want is to have religion taken out of schools. Then you would end up with a France-like situation where all mention of Christmas in school is banned.
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Religious studies should be mandatory – no church interference in school but lots of debate about its role(the good and the bad) in society.
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I prefer the current system where the church runs the schools to be honest. Its also very popular and helps propagate and maintain our religious traditions.
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So keep the equivalent of Wolfe Tones kids in a separate building.
Nice.
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That would be the equivalent of Wolfe Tone making that decision, that freedom from your tyranny would indeed be nice
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oh dear SF supporter….. looks like you spoke too soon
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/rhi-scandal/sinn-feins-michelle-oneill-in-firing-line-over-rhi-as-role-of-her-department-in-hyping-faulty-scheme-revealed-35404342.html
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That is very damaging news.
Sammy: It is fair to point out that the Alliance Party is completely clean as far as RHI is concerned and those concerned about RHI can cast their vote for Alliance without concerns.
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Remember how SF didn’t want a public inquiry when SDLP (very sensibly) demanded one?
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Sammy there is nothing here untoward. Naturally a minister would promote a government scheme – that is the minister’s job. It was only well after this that people became aware of problems with it. It was not Michelle’s scheme, it was Arlene Foster’s. But that does not stop the Indo rag from trying to make a cheap shot at SF from it. Disappointed you would consider this to be credible.
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Surely they new about it when the whistle-blowers email was sent o them?
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SF have chosen this issue to fight on – they were in government and now it seems promoted a dodgy scheme which their partners in government conceived. That is not good and something like this was inevitable as I pointed out above – SF Party devotees will complain but that is the price of government.
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Sammy it was not SF’s scheme it was the DUP’s scheme. Government ministers obviously promote government schemes. SF is in powersharing with DUP because it is part of the conflict resolution needed to build and take forward the peace process. Nothing to see here and I am very disappointed you would fall for this–clearly put out by some anti-SF element in the media.
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Regarding the RedC poll in the south it is within margin of error and actually up slightly on SF’s performance at the GE. If we were to have a GE soon I would expect SF to pick up seats next time out. Perhaps forming a major part in government in the south – something that worries unionists a LOT. This all Ireland dimension to SF is something that no other main political party has and is a good reason to vote for them in the upcoming Assembly elections.
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DUP clearly much more to blame – but SF don’t have fully clean hands. We shuod expect due diligence of their partners in government from SF and we didn’t get it.
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Despite what you hear from those on here and elsewhere who say won’t vote, don’t vote. It’s a waste of time or all parties are the same or none represent me
that’s what you are told to think.
Rest assured when it’s March 2nd 2017 they will be voting.
And so should you. Make sure you are registered and if not get registered.
https://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register-to-vote/register-to-vote-in-northern-ireland
Vote on March 2nd.
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Rest assured I won’t
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According to a Belfast Telegraph poll SF and the DUP are neck and neck. And Arlene Foster’s popularity has taken a nose dive.
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Very good poll for SF. Not so good for SDLP.
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Bel Tel polls haven’t been much good in the past and have always underestimated DUP support and at the same time overestimated SF support but not by as much.
Perhaps some people being polled are embarrassed and or ashamed to admit supporting DUP. This might be more the case this time with NAMA, Redsky and RHI but don’t expect the DUP vote to be down by much, every election here is fought along orange and green lines and this one won’t be any different. With Brexit on the horizon ‘to borrow a Bill Clinton phrase ‘it’s the hard border/ soft border – stupid’
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Any idea when we shall see FAHA’s commentary?
Always look forward to it.
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Very wisely Faha always waits for the candidates to be declared first.
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Do you know who UUP are standing in South Belfast, by the way, Gaygael?
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Yes. It’s their councillor for Castlereagh South. He is Michael Henderson.
Seems to be a tactical admission that they can’t gain the seat as he has limited profile.
If the Lucidtalk poll is to be believed and UUP voters are now more likely to transfer to others and sdlp than DUP, it helps Bailey even more.
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DUP- (38 candidates)
North Belfast-Paula Bradley, Nelson McCausland, William Humphreys
West Belfast-Frank McCoubrey
South Belfast-Emma Pengelly and Christopher Stalford
East Belfast- Robin Newton, Joanne Bunting, David Douglas
North Down- Gordon Dunne, Alex Easton
Strangford- Michelle McIlveen, Simon Hamilton, Peter Weir
Lagan Valley- Brenda Hale, Paul Givan, Edwin Poots
Upper Bann- Jonathan Buckley, Carla Lockhart
South Down- Jim Wells
Newry and Armagh- William Irwin
Fermanagh/South Tyrone- Arlene Foster, Lord Morrow
Mid Ulster- Keith Buchanan
East Derry- Maurice Bradley, Adrian McQuillan, George Robinson
North Antrim- Phillip Logan, Paul Frew, Mervyn Storey
West Tyrone-Tom Buchanan
Foyle- Gary Middleton
South Antrim- Trevor Clarke, Pam Cameron, Paul Girvan
East Antrim- David Hilditch, Gordon Lyons, Stephen Ross
Sinn Fein- (34 candidates)
North Belfast-Gerry Kelly, Caral Ni Chuilin
West Belfast- Alex Maskey, Pat Sheehan, Fra McCann, Orlaithi Flynn
South Belfast-Máirtín Ó Muilleoir
East Belfast-Mairéad O’Donnell
North Down-Kieran Maxwell
Strangford- Dermot Kennedy
Lagan Valley- Peter Doran
Upper Bann- John O’Dowd, Nuala Toman
South Down- Chris Hazzard, Sinéad Ennis
Newry and Armagh- Megan Fearon, Conor Murphy, Cathal Boylan
Fermanagh/South Tyrone- Michelle Gildernew, Sean Lynch, Jemma Dolan
Mid Ulster- Ian Milne, Michelle O’Neill, Linda Dillon
East Derry-Caoimhe Archibald, Cathal Ó hOisín
North Antrim- Philip McGuigan
West Tyrone- Barry McElduff, Michaela Boyle, Declan McAleer
Foyle- Raymond McCartney, Elisha McCallion
South Antrim- Declan Kearney
East Antrim- Oliver McMullan
SDLP- (21 candidates)
Foyle – Colum Eastwood, Mark H Durkan
North Belfast – Nichola Mallon
South Belfast – Claire Hanna, Naomh Gallagher
West Belfast – Alex Attwood
South Down – Sinead Bradley, Colin McGrath
Newry/Armagh – Justin McNulty
Fermanagh, South Tyrone – Richie McPhillips
West Tyrone – Daniel McCrossan
North Antrim – Connor Duncan
East Antrim – Margaret Anne McKillop
South Antrim – Roisin Lynch
Strangford – Joe Boyle
Lagan Valley – Pat Catney
East Derry – John Dallat
East Belfast – TBA
Mid Ulster – Patsy McGlone
North Down – Caoimhe McNeill
Upper Bann – Dolores Kelly
UUP (24 candidates)
North Belfast- Robert Foster
West Belfast- Fred Rogers
South Belfast- Michael Henderson
East Belfast- Andy Allen
North Down- William Cudworth, Alan Chambers
Strangford- Mike Nesbitt, Phillip Smith
Lagan Valley- Robbie Butler, Jenny Palmer
Upper Bann- Doug Beattie, Joanne Dobson
South Down-Harold McKee
Newry and Armagh- Danny Kennedy
Fermanagh/South Tyrone- Rosemary Barton
Mid Ulster- Sandra Overend
East Derry- William McCandless
North Antrim- Robin Swann
West Tyrone- Alicia Clarke
Foyle- Julia Kee
South Antrim- Steve Aiken, Adrian Cochrane-Watson
East Antrim- John Stewart, Roy Beggs
Alliance Party- 21 candidates
East Antrim – Stewart Dickson and Danny Donnelly
East Belfast – Naomi Long and Chris Lyttle
East Londonderry – Chris McCaw
Fermanagh and South Tyrone – Noreen Campbell
Foyle – Colm Cavanagh
Lagan Valley – Trevor Lunn
Mid Ulster – Fay Watson
Newry and Armagh – Jackie Coade
North Antrim – Patricia O’Lynn
North Belfast – Nuala McAllister
North Down – Stephen Farry
South Antrim – David Ford
South Belfast – Paula Bradshaw and Emmet McDonough-Brown
South Down – Patrick Brown
Strangford – Kellie Armstrong
Upper Bann – Tara Doyle
West Belfast – Sorcha Eastwood
West Tyrone – Stephen Donnelly
Green Party (18 candidates)
North Down- Steven Agnew
South Belfast-Clare Bailey
East Belfast- Georgina Milne
Fermanagh South Tyrone- Tanya Jones
Strangford- Ricky Bamford
North Belfast- Mal O’Hara
West Belfast- Ellen Murray –
Upper Bann- Simon Lee –
East Antrim- Dawn Patterson
West Tyrone- Ciaran McClean
Foyle-Shannon Downey
East Derry/Londonderry- Anthony Flynn
Mid Ulster- Stefan Taylor
North Antrim- Mark Bailey
Newry and Armagh- Rowan Tunnicliffe
South Antrim- Eleanor Bailey
Lagan Valley- Dan Barios O’Neill
South Down- Hannah George
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Excited to see such a strong slate of SF candidate being put forward to take things forward at this critical stage in the struggle.
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Fella. You are like Pravda.
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Above is a list of candidates for the Assembly I found over on Slugger.
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http://www.assemblyresearchmatters.org/2016/10/12/election-2016-an-analysis-of-results-and-transfers/
From the link above: In summary, of the parties elected, the UUP received most transferred votes (25%), followed by the DUP (22%), Sinn Féin (14%), SDLP (13%), Alliance (11%), Green Party (4%), TUV (3%) and People Before Profit Alliance (1%).
Table 3 contains a breakdown of the transfers received by the five main parties. A major source of such transfers is from other candidates of that party in the same constituency. The table shows that Sinn Féin candidates acquired the largest share of transfers from their own party (61%) and had the smallest proportion of transfers from other parties (39%).
In contrast, Alliance, UUP, and the SDLP received the lion’s share of transfers from other parties (71%, 76% and 79% respectively). The DUP received 59% of its transfers from other parties.
https://lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTJan17TrackerPollResults-GeneralReport.pdf
If the poll is accurate there is an increase in number of SF voters stating they’d transfer their vote to Alliance. As well as transfer to SDLP and PBP.
While SF supporters transfer strongly to PBP it seems not to be generally reciprocal. With the PBP voters tending to transfer to Alliance and Green.
I would hope to see better than normal transfers between nationalist parties and
continued preferences down the list from nationalists to others.
What is more I would like to see that transfer pattern replicated from others to nationalists. Finally a great turnout.
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Apparently UUP voters are transferring to SDLP more than DUP. Says a lot about the SDLP whose record when in govt was hardly good.
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland-assembly-election/assembly-election-poll-most-voters-against-executives-return-majority-of-nationalists-want-joint-rule-35434324.html
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Now that the candidates are now all in can Faha please come forward with the seat projections for each constituency? Thanks.
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It’s on the way. being edited as we speak
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