As some readers here may be aware the picture on the masthead above is of Winifred Carney who was born in Bangor on this day in 1887.
Winnie was a prominent Suffragist, socialist, trade unionist and activist in the struggle for Irish Independence.
She was the first woman to enter the GPO in 1916 in her role as James Connollys secretary. She was one of the last to leave the burning shell at the surrender. Famously, she arrived for duty “Armed with a typewriter and a Webley”.
I attended a one act play in Belfast recently which focussed on her reflecting upon her eventful life with her husband George, a Shankill Rd Orangeman no less.
It is written by Roseleen Walsh and is called “Winnie and George – opposing Politics” It was an interesting and thought provoking play which I would highly recommend if it gets an extended run.
For those interested here is a documentary about her life
<p><a href=”https://vimeo.com/147590901″>WINIFRED CARNEY</a> from <a href=”https://vimeo.com/northernvisions”>Northern Visions NvTv</a> on <a href=”https://vimeo.com”>Vimeo</a>.</p>
"We in coming days may be" 
Just so happens that I’m reading the biography of another Co Down Republican from a Protestant background, Earnán de Blaghd’s (born Ernest Blythe) ‘Trasna na Bóinne’. It’s fascinating stuff. He describes folk memories and attitudes favourable to the United Irishmen, if only in a romantic way; a disdain among educated people for the Orange Order; the almost total absence of socialising between the communities (he visits a Catholic home on the way home from a fair and casually mentions that it was the first Catholic-owned house he had ever set foot in and the last for some years to come). He’s good on how divisions between the Protestant denominations lost their power to divide and on Protestant attitudes to Home Rule, including a deep-seated fear among farmers that they would lose their farms in a redistribution of land if Ireland was ruled from Dublin. It should be translated into English really, to give it a wider readership. Dpon’t think Earnán would approve of that, though.
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Any chance of a demographic blog – number of catholics
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Just buy the Irish News and the News Letter, Nationalist, and do your own comparative analysis of the Births & Deaths section.
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That seems a bad way to do it. I would sooner Bangordub did a demographic blog using official data.
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In fairness to nationalist I think the great horseman had predicted end of 2016/start of 2017 to be the 50% +1 obviously voting age of 18 and nationalist apathy play a big role
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SDLP get a higher share of the nationalist vote in North Down than in most constituencies. I don’t think SF really have a realistic prospect here. I think in a couple of years SDLP have a chance of an assembly seat, though arguably that has been put back a bit by the number of seats falling from 6 to 5 next time.
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I’d be very interested in hearing how the SDLP plan to do that Activist? The nationalist vote has been the worst across the North for many years in N Down although I’m aware that SF are now very active and organised in the constituency also
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The SDLP can win a seat by converting people from other parties. Sinn Féin are a part of a highly discredited government iBelfast and there is a lot of appetite for their politics in North Down. The SDLP have been very wise in standing out in opposition to this government. The SDLP in North Down should be able to win a seat. Did you play a role with Sinn Féin in the Assembly elections?
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I certainly hope I did, however the SDLP vote has been dropping like a stone in the constituency, would be great to see the overall nationalist vote increase, to repeat, how do you see that happening other than having a rather weak shot at SF, which parties votes are you going after and how? What are your policies locally in North Down? Are you active and helping constituents in a meaningful way with the bread and butter issues? How are you engaging with your electorate? Basically, as an SDLP activist, what are you (collectively) doing?
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The SDLP have recruited a number of local people to take forward their strategy for North Down. The plan has had leadership level support and backing for a number of years. The engagement of the local electorate is something that the local SDLP place a high prioroty on as part of the strategiy. In all of this getting a strong local candidate who can engage locally on local issues. SF have little hope in this constituency and I think SF and other non unionist party supporters are targeted by the SDLP.. SF is very very weak in this constituency and i expect the SF vote to be in decline in this constituency..
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Well best of luck with it, anything that increases the overall nationalist vote I’m very much in favour of. You are correct that SF has been very weak in this constituency, largely due to having no presence on the ground whatsoever. I’m happy to report that this has been changing recently as evidenced by a new cumann being formed and a considerable online presence being established ( https://twitter.com/bangorsinnfein and https://www.facebook.com/Bangor-Sinn-F%C3%A9in-587724298097486/?fref=ts) as well as an active role being taken in assisting constituents and distributing of leaflets etc.
Hopefully the local SDLP will see beyond the failed strategy of merely attacking their fellow nationalists and hopefully generate a resurgence in their fortunes.
A quick analysis of the fortunes of both parties shows that much work will be required.
SDLP SF
2016A 1.30% 1.00%
2015w 1.00% 0.80%
2011a 2.70% 1.00%
2011lg 1.20%
2010w 2.00% 0.80%
2007a 3.60% 1.30%
2005w 3.10% 0.60%
2005lg 1.60%
2003a 5.00% 1.00%
2001w 3.00% 1.00%
2001lg*
1998a 5.00%
1997lg
1997w 4.00%
1996f 5.00% 1.00%
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The SDLP are, as usual, only interested in beating SF. However, they could find that the next election could be fertile ground for attracting enlightened Protestant voters who are keen to remain in the EU. N. Down had a high P Remain vote.
Scottish Independence could be a 2nd game changer. If they can start the ball rolling, there could be a workable UI with a majority of NI Ps voting for it.
If not then there’s not much point to the SDLP at all and the wee 6 and the border counties will be doomed to economic regression and a long standoff which will quietly relieve both London and Dublin.
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The SDLP is interested in challenging the low-quality of government provided by SF.
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Perhaps the SDLP would find more fertile ground, as PaulG says above, in formulating policies and attracting voters who are not their traditional gene pool. Simply attacking SF, merely reinforces unionist prejudices and the evidence, electorally, is simply that it doesn’t work
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SDLP has not been in opposition before. While I can understand SF people wanting SDLP to go easy on them from the opposition benches I think that is unlikely!
SF are under the magnifying glass and I have to say I am very impressed by Colm Eastwood’s leadership in opposition. Really putting pressure on SF who have not come out of the recent events at all well in my view.
I get the impression SF are ratted.
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I would suggest, respectfully, that SDLP have spent their entire existence in opposition and that is where their strength lies. It is why they were founded in the first place
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SDLP have been in opposition since 2016. Before that they had ministers but SF as the main party in the government treated the SDLP so badly that it was better to challenge SF from opposition. The decision to go into opposition was a very good one as it allows SF to be held to account by SDLP.
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SF have not always been the main party in government. Before 2005 the SDLP have been the main party in government with excellent ministers and had a post in the first ministers office as well as the lions share of the ministers in the government. However we are talking more than 10 years ago now. Sinn Féin it seems to me are not making a good job of government and in fact the incompetence of this givernment that they are in is a message that goes down well on the doorsteps in North Down.
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Bangordub
In the Irish News Brian Feeney said that Arlene Foster could be the last unionist First Minister ever because of demographics (higher Catholic birth rate). Based on your study of Catholic birth rates do you agree with him that this is the case?
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As of this year catholics are now a demographic majority in the north east. That is a fact. As you may know however, that isn’t necessarily a voting majority and given the imbalance across constituencies, it may be some time before it becomes one. Events, as always may change things faster than anticipated. I’m sure you are aware of the lack of engagement by nationalist voters over recent elections. This is because of precisely the same thing that led to the collapse of the SDLP vote previously, namely their engagement with unionism and failure to deliver anything as a result. You may disagree but the same issue is now very much a SF one.
To answer your Q, I think we are probably 2 elections away from a nationalist FM on purely demographic grounds but if the DUP continue as they are, you never know.
In the meantime the Unionist parties and the British Govt will do what they always have done and seek to divide nationalists amongst ourselves. Falling for that is to fail to read history
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Interesting you think that the nationalist FM could come in I assume 2024. Will keep that in mind as it isn’t actually that far off. I think actually you do not need a nationalist majority in the assembly to have a nationalist FM so if DUP were to lose a lot to UUP it could happen. However I don’t think it is actually desirable for nationalism to have a SF First Minister – SF are not a very good political party. I have heard it said that when SDLP does well nationalism does well and that when SF does well nationalism does badly and that that is actually the lesson from 1995 to the present day.
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Thanks for you opinions although I would like to seem some evidence. You appear to think that if the UUP were to take seats off the DUP that somehow they may may not designate as unionist, or perhaps alliance or others such as the greens could support a nationalist FM? Am I incorrect?
You state that “SF are not a very good political party”. would you care to substantiate that or is it just your own subjective opinion (to which you are fully entitled)?
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It’s looking increasingly like an Assembly election in 2017. SF can’t afford to let the DUP off the hook and the DUP themselves are united behind Foster. While I imagine that the DUP might lose a seat or two I can’t see any other outcome apart from SF being the biggest Nationalist party and the DUP being the biggest Unionist one. In other words, back to square one.
By the way, SDLP activist, if SF lose seats it will be more likely to be to People Before Profit. An election on reduced seat numbers will be a disaster for the SDLP.
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Antain I don’t think that the SDLP would be in a state of disaster if there was an election on reduced seats. I think SDLP have been tipped to do well in Strangford for instance.
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Too much is made of people before profit. I can’t see it surviving the move to 5 seats per constituency. They are a here today, gone tomorrow phenomenon.
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Interesting times ahead as the RHI scandal brings us to an election in March. DUP will almost certainly loose support. Will it be enough to take them under 30 seats (or equivalent in 90 seat assembly) needed for a petition of concern? Will this scandal and anger at Liofa funding cut increase Nationalist turnout?
Latest Equality Commission Monitoring Report and Lucid Talk Tracker Poll. http://endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2016/12/equality-commission-monitoring-report.html?m=1
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Bangordub what happened to my comment?
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