By Faha
The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland released their preliminary proposals for the new 17 Westminster constituencies that will take effect with the 2020 Westminster election. There has been much speculation in the media on the implications of the new boundaries. Much of this speculation seems to be based on a lack of awareness of the rationale behind the decisions of the Boundary Commission and the restrictions imposed by the recent Westminster legislation regarding the Boundary Review. The Boundary Commission published a full report with their recommendations which can be reviewed at their website.
I am presenting a thorough review of the demographics of the new constituencies based on the 2011 census. Many of the new wards do not match the boundaries of the old wards used for the census but I used the census Outputs Areas (OA’s) to determine as accurately as possible the demographics where the old wards are divided between 2 constituencies.
These are the demographics for each of the 17 new Westminster constituencies.
The most striking feature of the new constituencies is that there is a Catholic majority in 9 of the 17 constituencies. The current 18 constituencies have a Catholic majority in 7. This is partly due to the geographical and numerical constraints required by the legislation. A constituency can contain no fewer than 71,031 voters and no more than 78,507. In the current constituencies, those with the largest Protestant population are East Belfast, North Down, Strangford and East Antrim. All these constituencies are at least 10,000 voters below the average quota and needed to expand further west to collectively add 40,000 new voters. This had a knock on effect for other constituencies. I will explain this further when analyzing each constituency.
(View original map on website here )
For my analysis I will refer to any demographic changes and the expected results for the Westminster and Assembly elections. The next Assembly will have only 5 MLA’s elected per constituency and the Assembly will decrease from the current 108 to 85 members.
North Down
Although this is a nationalist blog I am beginning with North Down because the changes to North Down were the only ones possible due to geography and the quota requirements. It is geographically possible that the Ards Peninsula could have been added to North Down. However, this would have resulted in a constituency that was 1,000 over the maximum quota and thus cannot be allowed. The only alternative was to add the 5 Dundonald area wards. This decision basically then determined the nature of the Belfast constituencies and had a knock on effect that extended across Northern Ireland. The new North Down is even more unionist than the current one. Millisle was removed (geographical constraint) and 5 Dundonald area wards were added.
Westminster: Sylvia Hermon would still win here but when she retires this will definitely be won by the DUP as there is a large DUP vote in the 5 Dundonald area wards.
Assembly: The current Assembly has 1 Green and 1 Alliance MLA’s and the non unionist vote was 35%. That will decrease to the 33% range but still enough for 2 non unionist quotas (33.3%).
Belfast Southeast
The 5 Dundonald area wards were removed and 7 wards were added from South Belfast. This increased the Catholic population to 21.7% which is 9% higher than the current constituency. This constituency had the highest rate of increase in the Catholic population between 2001 and 2011 and will be near 27% for the 2020 and 2021 elections.
Westminster: If the Dundonald wards had been removed in 2015 Naomi Long would have won the election by 1% to 2% in the remainder of the constituency. Since the wards added from South Belfast have a net Catholic majority and the Alliance Party polls well in those wards the Alliance Party could win with a moderate amount of tactical voting by SDLP and SF voters even with a the current arrangement of a Unionist electoral pact.
Assembly: The non unionist vote was almost 40% in 2016 but with the removal of the Dundonald wards and the addition of the South Belfast wards it will be over 50% in 2021. The DUP would still win 2 seats but there would be 3 non unionist seats. Based on 2016 it would be 2 Alliance and 1 Green. However, SF and the SDLP have traditionally ignored East Belfast and even with that complete lack of effort in the East Belfast wards the nationalist vote was 10% within these boundaries in 2016. It is possible that either could win a seat in 2021 at the expense of Alliance or Green.
Belfast Southwest
This constituency consists of most of the current West Belfast wards except for the 3 unionist Court wards and 3 nationalist wards of Lower Falls. 8 wards were added from South Belfast. The new constituency is only 23% Protestant and still overwhelmingly nationalist.
Westminster: This will still be a safe SF seat though with less than 50% of the vote.
Assembly: Based on the 2016 results there should be 3 SF and 1 PBP elected with the last seat either the SDLP or DUP. The total unionist vote was approximately 15% to 16% which is less than a quota of 16.7%. The reason it is so much less than the 23% of the Protestant population is due to lower turnout compared to the West Belfast wards (some are students who do not vote here) and significant numbers vote Alliance or Green. The DUP would need Alliance or Green transfers as well as all the UUP transfers which may not occur.
Belfast Northwest
This constituency consists of the Court, Oldpark and Castle DEA’s as well as Beechmount ward and 2 wards from Newtownabbey. It is 6.5% more Catholic than the current North Belfast.
Westminster: The changes here would have and will have a dramatic effect on the Westminster results. The unionist wards removed from Macedon were exactly balanced by the addition of 3 unionist wards of Court. However, additional unionist voters were removed from 4 other Newtownabbey wards. 3 entirely nationalist wards were added from Lower Falls. There were some nationalist voters lost from 4 of the Newtownabbey wards but half those were voting SDLP or Alliance whereas the SF vote in Lower Falls is very high. It is likely that the SF vote would have been 6.5% higher in 2015 and the DUP vote 6.5% lower which means that the SF and DUP would have each had 40.5%. It is unlikely that PBP would stand here in 2020 and SF have a slight edge for 2020 due to 5 more years of demographic changes.
Assembly: There will still be 3 nationalist seats here but 1 DUP seat will be lost due to the reduction to 5 seats. The SDLP should win a seat with Alliance and UUP transfers.
South Down
South Down is basically unchanged with one ward removed and one added.
Westminster: Margaret Ritchie will easily win reelection.
Assembly: With the reduction to 5 seats it should be 2 SDLP, 1 SF and 2 unionists. The unionist electorate is far below 2 quotas but low nationalist turnout will result in 2 unionists elected.
Newry and Armagh
2 wards in the north were removed and the Mahon ward added. This was a puzzling change since Mahon is an urban ward in Portadown and the rural Blackwatertown ward (old Ballymartin and Charlemont wards) that was removed has always been part of the constituency. This may be challenged.
Westminster: No change here and an easy victory for SF.
Assembly: With the reduction to 5 seats it should be 1 SDLP, 2 SF and 2 unionists. The unionist electorate is below 2 quotas but low nationalist turnout will result in 2 unionists elected.
Upper Bann and Blackwater:
This constituency consists of the Lurgan, Craigavon and Portadown areas as well the Dungannon and Coalisland areas. The Banbridge wards and wards south of Lurgan and Craigavon were removed. The wards removed were over 3/4 unionist and the wards added are over 2/3 nationalist. This totally changed the demographics so that the Catholic population increased from 44% to 58%.
Westminster: The only way the DUP can hold this seat is through a unionist pact which will certainly occur once the DUP and UUP have realized the extent of the demographic changes. Without a pact both unionist candidates would poll less than 25% each and SF would be near 40%. The ward changes favour SF since the Banbridge area wards are where the SDLP vote exceed the SF vote and these were removed. Nationalist turnout is very low here but a unionist pact would still be needed to hold the seat for the DUP
Assembly: Although the new constituency has a nationalist-unionist breakdown of 60% to 40% nationalist turnout is so low here there could still be 3 unionist elected. There will be 2 SF, 1 UUP and 1 DUP. The last seat will be between the SDLP and the DUP and will depend on turnout and Alliance transfers.
Fermanagh South Tyrone
This constituency was changed dramatically with the removal of the Dungannon area wards and the addition of 8 wards from Omagh and Strabane. It is 1% more Catholic and 1% less Protestant than the current constituency.
Westminster: The 2% net change in the demographics may seem minor but this is not true. The Catholic population removed in Dungannon Town include a large number of EU nationals who cannot vote in Westminster elections. The Catholic population added in Omagh and Strabane is entirely native Catholics who do vote in higher numbers than those in Dungannon. Even the 2% nominal shift would have resulted in a 500 vote SF victory in 2015 but the actual margin would have been over 1,000 given the changes in the nature of the voters.
Assembly: There will be 1 DUP seat lost here due to the reduction to 5 seats. Otherwise it will be 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP and 1 DUP.
North Tyrone
The North Tyrone constituency is a combination of the current Mid Ulster and West Tyrone constituencies. It stretches from Strabane town to Cookstown. It is almost 70% Catholic
Westminster: This will be a safe SF seat. The only question is who the candidate is since North Tyrone contains both parts of the present Mid Ulster and West Tyrone constituencies.
Assembly: The results will probably be 2 SF, 1 SDLP and 2 unionists. As with other constituencies the Protestant electorate is less than 2 quotas but due to poor nationalist turnout 2 unionists will be elected here.
Foyle
The only change in Foyle was the addition of 1,000 voters from the old Slievekirk wards.
Westminster: No change here and this seat belongs to Mark Durkan for as long as he wishes to contest it.
Assembly: The addition of the 1,000 voters from Slievekirk actually saved the unionist seat here since 900 of those voters are unionist. In the 2016 election the DUP would have barely reached a quota if it were only 5 seats. Those additional unionist voters from Slievekirk will save the unionist seat for at least one more election.
Glenshane
This new constituency is a combination of the northern half of Mid Ulster and the Limavady and Bann DEA wards. It excludes all the Coleraine urban wards. It is 59% Catholic.
Westminster: The only way a unionist can win this seat is with an electoral pact which will almost certainly be arranged. Nationalist turnout is low in the Limavady Town and Bann DEAs so the total nationalist vote would be in the 56% range and the unionist vote near 44%. It is possible that SF could reach 44% but the SDLP vote is approximately the same as the SF vote in Limavady Town and Bann DEA.
Assembly: Probably 2 SF, 1 SDLP and 2 unionists.
Dalriada
A new constituency comprising the Coleraine urban area as well as the Ballymoney and Moyle councils and wards north of Ballymena Town.
Westminster: Gregory Campbell will probably move to this area to compete and win the seat for the DUP.
Assembly: Theoretically since the Catholic electorate is 33% there should be 2 nationalist quotas. However, nationalist voters in the Coleraine area have been boycotting elections for many years (except for the Brexit vote) so the result will be 1 SF, 1 TUV, 1 UUP and 2 DUP.
West Antrim
This constituency consists of the town of Ballymena and wards to the south. It extends to include the Dunsilly and Ballyclare DEA’s as well as 6 wards from the urban Newtownabbey area. It is 21% Catholic.
Westminster: This is strong DUP territory and should be an easy victory for Ian Paisley.
Assembly: There should be one nationalist seat here with a 21% Catholic population but turnout is so low that SF or the SDLP will struggle to reach one quota of 16.7%. The other 4 seats will be 2 DUP, 1 TUV and 1 UUP.
East Antrim:
East Antrim lost the Glens wards from Moyle and gained several wards from the urban Newtownabbey area including most of Macedon DEA. The new East Antrim is 2% less Catholic.
Westminster: An easy victory for Sammy Wilson here
Assembly: SF will lose their seat here as the 3 overwhelmingly nationalist wards from the Glens were removed. The result should be 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP with the 5th seat either DUP, UKIP or TUV.
South Antrim
This constituency had major changes with the Dunsilly and Ballyclare DEA’s removed as well as several wards from the urban Newtownabbey area. All of the Killultugh and Lisburn North and Lisburn South DEA’s were added. There were 2 Lisburn town wards (Hillhall and Blaris) that were not added. The demographic makeup is identical to the current South Antrim.
Westminster: This seat will likely be regained by the DUP. Danny Kinahan is losing areas where there is a significant UUP vote and gaining Lisburn town wards that are strongly DUP.
Assembly: There are 3 unionist seats here, 2 DUP and 1 UUP. The 2 non unionist seats are difficult to predict. The SDLP lost by only 220 votes to Alliance in 2016 and David Ford could retire by 2021. The Lisburn wards added have some of the lowest nationalist turnout in Northern Ireland and both SF and the SDLP poll poorly in Lisburn Town but Alliance does not poll well either.
West Down
This new constituency comprises the rural wards of Lisburn council and extends east into Castlereagh and south to include Banbridge Town and several other wards from the current Upper Bann. It is 25% Catholic.
Westminster: Jeffrey Donaldson should easily win this seat for the DUP
Assembly: There is 1 nationalist seat here which will be SDLP. There is also 1 Alliance, 1 UUP and 2 DUP.
Clearly the boundary changes will have a dramatic effect on the results of the 2020 Westminster election. If there are no electoral pacts the DUP will lose their seats in Upper Bann & Blackwater, Belfast Northwest and probably Belfast Southeast. The UUP will lose their seats in Fermanagh South Tyrone and South Antrim. SF would win 7 seats, the SDLP 2, the DUP 6, Alliance 1 and Sylvia Hermon in North Down. The SF total would equal the entire unionist total. However, there will be electoral pacts between the unionist parties. These pacts will cover Glenshane, Fermanagh South Tyrone, Upper Bann & Blackwater, Belfast Southeast and Belfast Northwest. Since the DUP currently hold 3 of those seats it is likely that the UUP will be given Glenshane. It will be important for SF and the SDLP to consider a nationalist electoral pact. Clearly it is not in the interest of Northern Ireland to have more unionist MP’s at Westminster since they are actively working against the interests of the people of Northern Ireland as seen by the recent support of the DUP for Brexit. A reasonable pact would be for SF to stand in Belfast Northwest and the SDLP in Belfast Southeast. SF would stand in Fermanagh South Tyrone and Upper Bann & Blackwater and the SDLP in Glenshane. With a nationalist electoral pact there would be 6 SF and 3 SDLP MP’s elected. For the SDLP to agree to an electoral pact SF would need to agree to take their seats at Westminster. Brexit will take place in 2019. The economic impact on Northern Ireland could be potentially devastating and there is the prospect of a hard border being imposed which is totally unacceptable to nationalists. Absentee MP’s are no longer a viable strategy. With more nationalist than unionist MP’s the unionist MP’s influence will be muted.
There will be District Council elections in 2019 and the results will give us a good idea of what the Westminster and Assembly results will be in 2020 and 2021. The Westminster results are much more important. The Assembly has no tax raising powers so the size of the Northern Ireland budget is determined at Westminster. While the Assembly results are interesting it does not matter whether there are 32 nationalist MLA’s or 40, or whether there are 43 unionist MLA’s or 38. There will still be a mandatory power sharing government with SF and the DUP.
There will be some changes to these preliminary proposals. Based on previous reviews there will be no major changes. Any proposed changes will need to comply with the quota range of 71,031 to 78,507. It is difficult to propose any changes involving multiple wards due to the unpredictable knock on effect to adjoining constituencies. There are some questionable boundaries in these proposals. For example, one ward in Dungannon Town (Mullaghmore) was include in North Tyrone while all the other ward were put in Upper Bann & Blackwater. Carryduff was divided between 2 constituencies and Castlereagh South was basically split between Strangford and West Down. Most of Lisburn Town was included in South Antrim but 2 wards (Blaris and Hillhall) were put in West Down. Newtownabbey was divided among 4 constituencies in an awkward manner. The Boundary Commission will eventually make a few minor ward shifts but the initial proposal we see will be very similar to the final boundaries.
"We in coming days may be" 
Thank you Faha & BangorDub for this fine piece of work. The review is much more favourable for Nationalism than anticipated. The demographic advantage is in nationalism’s clear favour in the four closest constituencies of Belfast NW, UB&BW, FST, and Glenshane. The demographic differential is between 13% and 21% in favour of catholics in each of these four constituencies. However, unfortunately I expect a unionist pact to win all four Westminster seats in 2020 on a split nationalist vote. In the longer term, demographic changes will make even unionist pacts unhelpful for unionist attempts to win those seats.
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As Catholics continue to outbreed Protestants we don’t need nationalist packs.
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Except that the Catholic birth rate is dropping, a bigger proportion of our young people emigrate, immigrants will favour staying in Britain otherwise they would have gone to the South in the first place and increasingly fewer Catholics are identifying as Nationalists hence the slump in the vote.
Realistically, the period just after Brexit is the only chance there will be, that’s why we need to work together now.
There will be plenty of time for SF and the SDLP to duke it out afterwards.
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Paul if you look at the NISRA birth rate figures you can see that Protestant towns like Larne and Bangor have significantly lower birth rates than Catholic areas like Derry and Newry. Catholics are still significantly outbreeding Proestants. Also migration works better for Catholics – the people who go to university in England are more likeley to be Protestants. Queens has very few Protestants now according to statistics in the news and many protestants know this and choose to go to England and never come back.
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Wrong just as many catholics have gone across the water to Britain for university and if anything since the crisis the emigration rates are greatest from rural nationalist areas. Dont believe me then look at how the GAA clubs are filling up across the world yet many teams in Ireland cant now field a side
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A fabulous piece of work. Very well researched and is actually fact based.
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You’ve outdone yourself there BD. But I wouldn’t assume the Nationalist turnout will be so low in 2021 as to gift Assembly seats to Unionism in N&A, NT, SD and B&UB.
If SF & SDLP can counter the Unionist pact with a Nationalist one, that could not only gain F&ST, NWB, Glenshane and B&UB, but also invigorate Nationalist belief and boost turnout in the Assembly and Council elections.
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I think SF will need to be a bit more generous to get a pact over the line. Assuming NB and F&ST to be their primary targets, they may have to let the stoops have B&UB as well as Glenshane.
They need to bury the animosity of war years and forget about finishing off their Nationalist rivals. They need to realise that the window for UI will be a very short one, as the Catholic birth rate drops and many young, post troubles, Catholics are not only apolitical but increasingly comfortable in a not so Orange NI.
We may get One shot at UI and it is coming soon, but Nationalists need to be working together and have all of their ducks lined up in preparation.
These new Boundaries are a godsend and if not squandered, should be a springboard to our long denied destiny.
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Paul,
A pact is only of any relevance to a Westminster FPP election, In the context of assembly and council elections it is only of any significance in terms of transfers to alternative pro reunification parties – I’m sure you’re aware of this but important to clarify
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Yes of course. if you have a formal pact for Westminster, SDLP & SF voters will feel they’ve approval for increased transfers to each other in the Assembly and Council elections. They will also be more likely to turnout as the chances of successful Nationalist Candidates will have increased.
Blackwater-UpperBann may be a tricky one though. Not only is there very low Nationalist turnout there, but we have to factor out the disproportionate number of Catholics below voting age and the large number of ineligible East European Catholics living in Dungannon, Portadown and Craigavon.
SF may also be required to not try too hard in Foyle and South Down so as not to scupper the pact, post election.
Ideally they would still run there to keep the overall Nationalist vote percentage up.
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Good work Faha, brilliantly explained.
what about Fianna Fail entering the elections in 2019 (on this mornings news), surely that will dilute the nationalist vote?
Regarding SF taking their seats in Westminster, that wont happen. They will loose massive support.
Regarding there being a hard border from Brexit, that wont happen either – It would be economical suicide for NI, if that was to happen. I cant even see any unionists supporting that.
I cross the border several times a day to work, mass etc. If a border check point returned, it would be a serious breach of the GFA & the ‘peace process’ – and the inverse of the ‘peace process’ would inevitably happen, and rightly so.
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Presumably SF would enter Westminster to vote on the British withdrawal from Ireland, particularly if was expected to be a close vote.
They would probably also enter to vote if they considered British rule to be in it’s final phase and series of close votes would lead to their goal, eg Scottish and Welsh secession (or expulsion) leading to a withdrawal from NI. I’m sure both Collins and Dev would have done that.
Of course SF will never tell us until just before they do it.
If it ever comes to that, it will mean we’ve won, so I for one won’t be objecting!
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Well done, Faha, on a fascinating and detailed post. I’m not sure if I agree with you that Westminster is more important than the Assembly – I’d put it the other way round, despite the limits of devolution. I think everyone agrees on the symbolic importance of a slight Nationalist lead or even parity in Westminster representation, but would the powers that be in London sit up and take notice? I don’t think so – even the SNP’s near monopoly of Westminster seats hasn’t changed much in Whitehall.
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There won’t be pacts between SF and SDLP, in my opinion.
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I agree. Why should SF help the SDLP?
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Every Party has a price at which pacts become interesting.
The question as I see it, is will SF offer enough or will they be so blinded by their desire to dominate without challenge, that they try to wipe out the SDLP instead?
In my opinion, the latter would be a mistake, as the perfect storm is brewing for the Union and if SF are too distracted by petty feuds, they’ll miss their big chance.
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Not sure about this idea of helping the SDLP at all. Catholics should consolidate around Sinn Féin rather than splitting to vote SDLP; these new constituencies should help that process.
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The vote is already split too much to win all of seats that Nationalists are entitled to.
The SDLP will be required to help SF too in winning seats they might otherwise lose.
Whatever the details may be, a deal is needed to combat Unionist domination, to inspire and re-invigorate the nationalist electorate and to achieve a United Ireland in next decade.
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SF will not be giving any get out of jail free cards to the SDLP.
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^^ Biggest stumbling block to a united ireland this in fighting. There is no way all nationalists are going to magically get behind SF. If a united ireland will ever happen it needs SF, SDLP and the southern parties all working together. The sooner FF enter council and assembly elections the better.
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Excuse the spelling mistakes everywhere. Just to add it would also help loads if some more like Anna Lo from the Alliance and Green Party came out with pro unity opinions instead of playing safe and not wanting to upset anyone.
(Spelling corrected – BD) 😉
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I don’t remember SF ever standing aside to not split the nationalist vote when the SDLP were the dominant nationalist party in the north, so why would should the reverse happen?
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Charlie SF will not be standing aside for the SDLP. The SDLP as the smaller party if any should stand aside, not SF, as the larger party.
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Short sighted, a strong SDLP and also FF will help get the turnout up and in stv will be SF’s quickest way to increase their vote, unless they are afraid of loaned votes going back. Even without the troubles, lots wouldn’t vote SF, it’s a brand. You’d need something like new labour politics.
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Brian Feeney has said that nationalists tend to row behind the larger party and that the SDLP are on their way out. Why delay their death with an electoral pack?
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Did you deliberately misread my post or was it a genuine error. I asked where were the SF supporters calling for their party to stand aside when the SDLP were the larger party?
The answer, as if you didn’t know, was never.
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Fantastic piece of work. Well done.
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“I don’t remember SF ever standing aside to not split the nationalist vote when the SDLP were the dominant nationalist party in the north, so why would should the reverse happen?”
Well I remember Alex Maskey standing aside to allow Alastair McDonnell a free run in South Belfast, a gesture greeted with such bad grace by Big Al that it isn’t likely to happen again any time soon – even if the constituency continues to exist.
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I think that was a mistake by Alex Maskey.
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I wouldn’t imagine it was his decision.
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I think it played well with softcore SDLP voters who were considering voting tactically for SF in Fermanagh/S. Tyrone. It was very clever of SF to bypass the SDLP hierarchy and appeal directly to their voters.
Without that withdrawal they probably would have lost F/ST again.
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I doubt it; people are leaving the SDLP every year anyway. There has been an ongoing increase in the nationalist voter share for SF and a fall for the SDLP.
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Antain,
That’s not a good example. Unless you misread it too, I was referring to when the SDLP were bigger and nationalists weren’t claiming as many seats as they should have been.
Even if we come forward to 2010. Alex Maskeys stunt had notjing to do with helping the SDLP. SF haven’t a hope in South Belfast and McDonnell gets a lot of votes outside the nationalist tent. It’s these types of broader other that SF can’t reach and yet this stunt said to all the middle ground and liberal unionist voters that nationalists aren’t afraid to gang up in unity fashion when it suits. What happened? The broad nationalist vote in South Belfast has never got up to the 41% mark that McDonnell garnered despite demographics still moving in his favour. Good job. All it was worried about was FST and that’s it.
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Unintentionally hilarious article by the SDLP’s Alban McGinness in the Telegraph, demanding that the Boundary review be scrapped. It will, it seems, cause ‘uncertainty and instability’ and, what’s this, ‘a further squeezing of the numbers for the Opposition parties.’ Oh, so that’s why…
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/if-westminster-cares-about-northern-ireland-then-drop-boundary-plan-35045596.html
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Typical of the SDLP. Losers!
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I think Alban is a bit silly here but who cares? You behave like an unreconstructed online Shinnerbot in that spend more time talking about the SDLP than even the unionist parties.
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Antain I just read it, expecting to see N embarrassing article asking for the new constituencies not be introduced. It was mostly about PR. We all know FPTP is a rotten voting system. We’d all agree with that right?
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Hi Charlie. Personally I found the article badly-argued and very, very naive. It suggests that using PR in Westminster elections will lessen sectarian voting and ‘encourage new politics.’ We all know that to be a pipe-dream. Assembly elections are PR affairs and yet the story of every election is the enduring one of Nationalism vs Unionism. I agree that FPTP is a dreadful mechanism to use, but changing it won’t deliver ‘normal politics’ in an abnormal statelet.
But more than anything else, I was amused by Alban’s opposition to the redrawn constituency boundaries. If they are advantageous to Nationalism (and Faha has proved that they are) all I can say is ‘Good.’ Alban bemoans the ‘huge earthquake to the political geology of Northern Ireland’ as if that geology is something to cherish.
Apologies if I gave the impression that I’m antagonistic to the SDLP. I’m really not, but I despair of them sometimes. Nationalism is handed a potential morale-boosting victory and Alban uses a public platform to decry it. There are only a few lines in the piece about the knock-on effects on the SDLP vote, but it’s hard not to think that here is Alban’s real objection and the real cause that made him put pen to paper.
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Antain,
I actually agree about his remarks about ‘political geology’ as being a bit ridiculous.
It reminds me about the first attempt in 2013 to reduce to 16 constituencies. I group responded to the proposals called ‘south belfast sdlp’ with a bit of an inflated south belfast drawn taking in bits of Dunmurry and Drumbo in Lisburn. It was a bit of a monster but clearly a suggestion to preserve the fragile coalition Alasdair won himself.
I mentioned before to an sdlp number cruncher that no amount of boundary rejigging can replace actually winning back voters or giving new voters something to vote. I got a polite acknowledging nod before they walked off.
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I see a new party Saoradh was launched today. Any views as to whether that will help bolster the broad nationalist vote?
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The BBC has a short clip of the new party’s launch; it seems to be taking an abstentionist approach. It will *contest* elections but not sit in the various chambers they are elected to.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37464254
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If they stand at all, it will probably be only where they can stymie SFs hopes of a seat and gift it to Unionists instead, before claiming electoral politics is hopeless for nationalists.
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I think they might resonate with a reasonable number of Catholic voters.
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It might get some strongly republican voters out to the Polling Station and when they are there they would transfer to Sinn Féin, which hopefully can reverse the decline in Catholic turnout and boost the SF vote, allowing SF to both eat further into the SDLP vote while retaining the strong republican vote. Win win for SF?.
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Regrettably such hopes have never been realised. The dirty trick, spiteful nature of splinter group politics always manifests in spoiler actions. Nothing will be done which could boost SF. They will only stand in non transferable vote Westminster Elections in F/ST, NB and anywhere else they think they can deny SF a seat.
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Regrettably those hopes are never realised. The spiteful nature of splinter group politics always manifests in spoiler actions and dirty tricks. They will do nothing which could boost SF. They will only stand in non transferable vote Westminster elections in F&ST, NB and anywhere else they can deny SF a seat.
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I think it will but to what extent is another question, as I can clearly remember Adams saying, when replying to a journalist asking him if SF’s entry into electoral politics would split the nationalist vote, that is would maximise nationalist votes. Now we need a more centrist party, perhaps with the likes of Gerry McGeogh, to fillout the entire spectrum of nationalist opinion and maximmmise the vote.
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Good idea. Do you know if Gerry McG is interested in forming a party? I think it would be a very good addition to the menu of choices for Catholic voters.
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I do not know what McGeough’s plans are. I am only suggesting someone of his profile and opinion is what is needed.
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I don’t think such a party is going to be something SF will worry about.
SF now dominates the political scene north and south.
The future looks good: Mary Lou has grown in stature and in sureness of touch.
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I do not think SF dominates anywhere, in the south they are very much also rans, in the north they are losing ground and are very much in abeyance to the DUP. it will be interesting to see if they grow in the south. FF do not see them as a threat, they see their voters as having drifted towards, by and large, to FG. They see FG as their threat. If they could not eclipse FF in the light of their close collapse in 2010 they are extremely unlikely to do so in the next election. The only expansion for SF in the south is to finally put the nail in Labour’s coffin, and eat into PBP and AAA. They will only do slight damage to FF if any. In the north they have reached their zenith, they may have slight growth but nothing much as the SDLP continue to make no ground.
All this takes me back to my original point. We need a new party to represent the middle ground. Only by that development will we see nationalism punch its weight.
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Faha,
Excellent analysis. I take your point about revisions being unlikely but the DUP will be ferreting away to try and get them through.
What is the impact likely to be on Belfast Council in terms of the split between Nats, neutrals and Unionists?
BD,
the recent United Ireland opinion poll was something of a disappointment(to put it mildly)- but these changes are a potential game changer – especially if as Faha indicates Nat turnout improved.
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Sammy,
These boundaries are for the Westminster and Assembly elections and will have nothing to do with the Belfast Council elections which are based on the DEA boundaries.
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North Down – where does that vote go post-Sylvia? Unionism? Alliance?
I would think the former but they’ve been “heretics” for quite a longtime now, they might enjoy continuing it.
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History says: a UUP person who may at some point leave (or have left) the UUP.
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Faha,
re. “Absentee MP’s are no longer a viable strategy. With more nationalist than unionist MP’s the unionist MP’s influence will be muted.”
Can’t agree with that suggestion. Abstentionism is an important expression of Northern Nationalism. With Labour in disarray it is unlikely to be a scenario in which SF votes would matter. For the SDLP to make that a pre-condition for a pact means them asking for something they cant have. If there was a Brexit vote in Parliament then SF could re-consider if it threatened to be close.
In reality Unionists have very little influence for years and SF propping up British governments which is the price of influence would be political suicide (and ideological) for them.
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Sinn Féin Supporter in County Tyrone
re. “I don’t think such a party is going to be something SF will worry about.
SF now dominates the political scene north and south.
The future looks good: Mary Lou has grown in stature and in sureness of touch.”
Do you realise that sort of statement makes it sound as if you have been brainwashed?
You are not doing SF any favours by utterances that smack of blind party loyalty.
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Sammy can you explain what specifically you disagree with in terms of my appraisal of SF?
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I dont mean to be rude – but exactly what Bangordub said to you the last time this issue arose,
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I think you may be confusing me with someone else, Sammy.
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Sinn Féin do not dominate politics in the South. They are stuck at under 20% in the opinion polls and routinely poll under that in actual ballots. The main political parties have stated repeatedly that they will not go into coalition with them. SF are doing well, and have potential for further growth, but they by no stretch of the imagination ‘dominate.’
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If you think about it – FF were terrified of allowing SF to go into opposition. So they had to arrange things so that they were in opposition to FG. The three traditional parties – Lab, FG, FF – are all concerned about the growth of SF, which seems to be where the true dynamo is.
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Apologies if that’s case – to paraphrase Bangordub – simply trotting out the party line without supporting evidence does not encourage debate.
Bnagordub,I also apologise to you if that is not a fair reflection of your words to a (different?) poster regarding repeating the party line.
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No problem, Sammy. I think he was complaining about Mary Martin.
Would you say that the new dissident party poses a threat to SF, then?
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He is quite correct. SF may not dominate at the polls or at elections in the South but you can bet your last shilling they most certainly dominate the thoughts of the traditional established parties. Moreover, all polls show that SF support in the 18 to 34 age cohort is streets ahead, in fact the combined support of FF and FG in that age cohort barely matches SF. Of course the problem there is that the younger age groups are less likely to vote which goes some way to explain the slow growth in SF support. But it is growing and it is going in the right direction year on year. All of this occupies the minds of the establishment parties who are struggling to fish for votes in a much reduced poll. The last GE in the South was the first election where SF won more seats than their popular vote would justify, this signals a significant improvement in their transfer attractiveness. The trajectory suggests that SF support will continue to nudge forward, they are now solid as the third largest party and that position will continue to cause endless problems for FF and FG. Eventually they will have no choice but to do business with SF, like it or not.
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A very well argued post both in terms of logic and in terms of marshalling of empirical facts.
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Sinn Féin Supporter in County Tyrone,
As Antain suggests “SF are doing well, and have potential for further growth, but they by no stretch of the imagination ‘dominate”
I see you have scaled your claim back to SF being the ‘dynamo’ – that is is still overstatement, albeit an improvement on your previous claims.
If is genuinely not clear if SF can grow enough to get into government. The next election looks way to soon for that happen as things stand.
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SF would obviously not want to go in as a junior to FF or FG. So what I think is the next step is to overtake FG to become the opposition at the next election. Did you see the last RedC poll? Looking good!
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Sammy I think the reason SF is the dynamo in the south is that it (alone among parties in Dublin) is able and WILLING to stand up to the croney capitalism and redistribute income from rich to the poorest, by taxing wealth. While in the north Sinn Féin is able to get a better deal for Catholics by participating in government and stopping the unionists and British from their divisive brand of politics. So all in all SF make a big difference north and south.
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Sammymcnally
Sinn Féin now up to 19% in todays Irish Times opinion poll, that’s a big increase on the 14% at the last GE and would see many more TDs, even more than last time, which was a lot more than the time before, and the time before. It is not an exaggeration to say that SF is a dynamo in the south. Sinn Féin is on the up and up.
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SF have hit greater heights than that in opinion polls and gone on to do much less well in actual elections.
I think that the most significant factor in SF’s trajectory is its relative longevity. The economy is improving (for some more than others), FF are recovering and still SF do well, despite all the claims that their vote was a mere protest at austerity measures and that it would fall back when ‘normal’ business was restored. That is a major positive for SF – that and the fact they’ve done what no other left wing party has managed to do in appealing to voters outside the big towns and cities.
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Yes I would endorse your concluding sentiments regarding SF’s achievements.
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It’s also important to note in your narrative that Sinn feins share of the vote has been in decline since the council elections in 2014. Marginal slippages but then a significant drop of 2.9% in the most recent assembly elections.
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Not so sure this is a valid point. The longer term trend is that of SF taking a larger and larger share of the nationalist vote. What you are referring to is just a slight “unwind” of the high (by historical standards) nationalist turnout that happened in the 2000s.
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There were 3 articles in the Belfast Telegraph this week on the Boundary Review. One of them was by Nigel Dodds and apparently he is very upset about the proposed boundaries. He stated that the DUP would submit proposals to retain 4 Belfast constituencies. I do not see how this could be done without abolishing another DUP seat in the Belfast area. All proposals will be published in 3 months so we will know then what the DUP is proposing.
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I think Paul Maskey was saying that he though it a shame to lose West Belfast in the redraws.
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Panic in the BT as Unionism realise they’ve been shafted. Hence the recent BS about the Tories cosying up to the DUP for their Westminster votes. When really they are just placating them until they find outthat the Irish sea will be the UK’s real border.
Popcorn countdown to re-unification.
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Excellent post and great to see. I believe the number of Catholics is set to be a majority in the next two months too!!
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Faha, I wonder if there they will try and play some sort of ‘special circumstances’ card. The Labour Party (British) is challenging the proposals in the courts – not sure of the grounds.
In demographic terms what is you estimate of the Nationalist backrgounders versus Unionist backgrounders in terms of currently able to vote and able to vote in 5 or 10 years in the existing/new constituencies taken the 4/3 constituencies together as a whole?
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Sammy
Over on Slugger Paddy Reilly has done work on this and found that Catholics will be in a majority in December this year. That will be quite a demoralising moment for unionists as they see their young emigrate, their population ageing, and their small family sizes surpassed by their Catholic neighbours.
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If we are going to solely rely on the relative birth rates and migration levels to achieve a United Ireland, then I predict that there will be a United Ireland… but it will be over 100 years away when the Caliphate of Northern Ireland decides to merge with the Caliphate of Southern Ireland. We can look forward to our great grandchildren finally getting one over the the great grandchildren of the other side as they are all being led down to the beach for beheading!
We will need to be a bit more imaginative and proactive if we want it in our lifetime for our own kids to benefit.
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The first public consultation was held in Ballymena 2 days ago. Ian Paisley attended and condemned the Boundary Commission proposals according to an article in the Belfast Telegraph.
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Sinn Féin Supporter in County Tyrone,
That is theoretically positive – the Nat background (Catholic) population has been increasing for some time – but the % Nat vote has gone done or stayed the same.
If the figures translate into votes it would be very worrying for Unionists.
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Sammy,
The law to reconfigure the Westminster constituencies was passed in Westminster several years ago so I do not see what legal basis Labour would have to overturn in court a legitimately passed law. The Conservative Party is fully behind this since the proposals in England and Wales will cost Labour 30 seats. It is difficult to determine what the demographics will be in 2021 due to emigration of natives and the impact of continuing EU in migration which is still occurring at the rate of 10,000 per year. Of course that in migration will end in 2019 but there could be a large surge in 2018 and 2019.
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There could be grounds on the basis of inadequate consultation or attempting to distort the parliamentary system by ‘fixing’ it – but these grounds would probably relate to the general situation rather than the particulars of a constituency. The DUP presumably would have to support the Labour Party’s view and / or object the same way as everyone else if they are accepting its ‘constitutional’ legality.
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Faha,
You have probably covered this a number of times…
but do the 4 seats or 3 seats align with the council boundaries?
What is your rough estimate of the overall current demographic split for the 3 or 4 seats and if different from the council boundaries the overall demographic split there as well – leaving out voting age considerations?
Are Nats currently in a majority in either parliamentary or council terms?
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Sammy,
Look at my analysis above for Belfast East, Belfast South West and Belfast North West. The 3 seats align with the Belfast council boundaries except for the 2 wards added to Belfast North West from Newtownabbey.
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Faha, thanks for that.
Would there not be a move then to change the Council boundaries at some point so that they ‘match’ – or is there not sufficient justification for doing that?
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Sammy,
I doubt it because this boundary review will occur every 5 years which seems too frequent and disruptive to keep changing the boundaries of Belfast Council.
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Sammy McNally
Don’t worry too much about that I am pretty sure that when Catholics are in a majority they will come out to vote, there isn’t much point when the Protestants are in a majority. Catholics will be in a majority in December, according to Paddy Reilly on Slugger. Not long now and not such a nice Christmas present for the unionists!!
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Great to see SF on 17% in a new poll tonight in the south, up 4% points from last time.
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Sinn Féin are actually a point down from the last poll conducted by the same polling organization, Behaviour and Attitudes – but don’t let mere details curb your enthusiasm.
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I meant since the GE in Feb. Anyhow 17% is a very creditable scoring for Sinn Féin and it is not unreasonable to might expect to see it overtake FG if it continues on its growth path.
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http://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/martin-mcguinness-resigns-as-deputy-first-minister-triggering-election-in-northern-ireland-35353216.html
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The timetable to decide new Westminster constituency boundaries was released today – as were details on rules that might have a major effect on what seats will look like at the next election.
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Have you got a link for the Boundary commission timetable and will it consider 600 or 650 seats?
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