As the dust settles after the Brexit vote and the reality dawns, we all need to adjust to a new reality. Events can sometimes make change come pouring through the cracks rather faster than expected.
Some are having much difficulty with that. Including me.
Politically, Sinn Fein (Don’t go there Mary) reacted instantly with a call for a reunification poll. Within a week , Fianna Fail and Fine Gael and the SDLP followed suit, to a degree. The DUP, predictably, didn’t. As usual they sought to align themselves with the Tories in London regardless of the consequences to the people here, most pointedly, their own voters.
The dynamic has now changed, without a doubt.
This is a moment of catalyst. There is a tangible feel in the air that change is now happening around us and yet nobody is entirely sure what to do next. Least of all our political leaders.
It is clear to me that within nationalist politics there is a wind of change. The traditional republican heartlands feel a sense of abandonment as a result of the expansion of the membership and voter base which has been most notable south of the border. Hence the stagnation and decline in the nationalist vote in those heartlands. This needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency in my opinion and it can only be done by talking and having some uncomfortable conversations. With honesty.
Equally, the opportunity provided by the Brexit vote to engage with those who voted yes but would, perhaps, be traditionally unionist voters (NOT TUV) is obvious. This is not some sort of nationalist outreach project. It is a genuine opportunity to engage in a serious way with intelligent fellow countrymen on something that is a concern to us all.
It is not a discussion about the southern state taking over the failed northern region, It is an opportunity to discuss shaping a new Ireland for us all, democratically.
"We in coming days may be" 
as I wrote here Scottish and N.Irish Unionists have a choice to make – which Union?EU or UK? Political or economic?The margins of a failing political union vs An independent country with all the powers?
Looks like a no-brainer to a sensible person but . . . . .
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It is interesting to think of Brexit in the context of the North’s demographic change.
When Peter Robinson made his speech in 2012 saying more Catholic support the Union implicitly he accepted that the old calculation of a Protestant Unionist majority was finished. To some extent Unionism would in future have to rely on a Catholic vote.
By making the comment, Robinson was also implicitly accepting that Catholics would tend to define themselves as Irish, but that for economic reasons would support the Union.
In 2012 basing support of the Union on economic, rather than cultural, terms seemed like the smart course of action. At the time the Republic was suffering through a recession, while the North continued to enjoy the benefits of a cosseted lifestyle funded by London’s largess.
Robinson’s calculation looks less sure now.
No one can say what Brexit will mean for the North, but it’s hard to see the £0.5bn per annum of EU grant money continuing. It’s also difficult to believe that the North will be at the top of the queue when the poorer regions of the UK (and there’s quite a few of them) go to London begging for money. In cold political terms, the Conservatives are going to favour areas that are marginal seats and none of them are in the North.
While the more optimistic Brexit supporters are confident that the UK as a whole will thrive outside the EU (and maybe it will) it’s doubtful that the North is going to get much of a boost.
In crude terms if a company wants to set up in Ireland it would pick the Republic over the North because of the tax, EU and political stability advantages. If the same company sought a UK base it would choose England because of the population market advantage and the reduced transport costs because it’s not on the wrong side of the Irish sea.
The North’s political elite had big hopes for the North’s bespoke reduced corporation tax to create an economic incentive to offset the geographic problem. But post Brexit the commitment of the Treasury to reducing the UK wide corporation tax rate has obviated that hope.
The North will shortly find itself out of the EU, without a viable economy and more than ever dependent on London’s transfers. Seeing as the only economic news that comes from Stormont is the story of more cuts, reduced budgets and London reducing the block grant it’s hard to see the North continuing to live beyond its means.
Already London has pushed through one batch of civil service job losses, there will be more to come as budgets shrink. Remember the North’s economy is almost 25% public sector supported, at the best of times an unsustainable figure and these will not be the best of times.
In this new economic reality, the North is going to realise that the Union is no longer the safe economic bet. All Peter Robinson’s Catholic Unionists are going to have to reassess their loyalty. If they are loyal to the pound not the Crown, what happens when the pounds run out?
The other demographic factor are the Eastern European of which there are perhaps 30,000. The general assumption was that they would be apolitical but now they have skin in the game. The Eastern Europeans post-Brexit will be discriminated against in some fashion (otherwise why have Brexit at all). A vote by them for a United Ireland would be a vote to return to the EU with the full range of rights to Irish benefits, such as child remittances back home that the Cameron sought to end. The minimum wage in the Republic is also higher which would be a further attraction. Their numbers may be small, but post-Brexit the Eastern Europeans will have every reason to favour a United Ireland over remaining in the Union. Also, it’s not like they enjoy the best of relations with Loyalists.
Those that frequent this site and others like it are used to the slow pace of changing demographics. A change so slow that it generally goes undetected and if discussed is dismissed as inconsequential because events like Tom Elliot being elected in FST happen.
Events are the like the foam on the surface of the sea and the demographics are like the current pulling beneath. One is violent and captures your attention but the other is silent pulling you somewhere new.
The current of demographics has now been reinforced with a new and unexpected stream.
Economically the North will be better off in a United Ireland.
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Actually the number of EU nationals is much higher. As of July 2015 there were 115,000 with NiNo numbers recorded as living in Northern Ireland and 30,000 were from the Republic of Ireland and the other 85,000 from other non UK European nations. There has been a concern expressed by Pro Brexit Conservative MP’s that there could be a surge of EU nationals coming to the UK in the next 2 years in anticipation of the final Brexit deadline since at that time they would no longer be allowed to immigrate to the UK.
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re. “Their numbers may be small, but post-Brexit the Eastern Europeans will have every reason to favour a United Ireland over remaining in the Union.”
Good point – hadn’t seen that mentioned before.
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I believe only IRE or UK citizens will have a vote in border poll.
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bel tel border poll at 70% from 35k. So all we need is the voting age at 16 and have the vote towards the end of July when the crazies are still dizzy from tyre fumes and job done.
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This is very encouraging in terms of how quickly a UI can be brought about..
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New poll out today showing FF and FG doing well.
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Which is very encouraging, as those two parties have had a hard time in recent years.
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Encouraging for ff and fg? I thought you were sdlp Mary? Why is it encouraging and in what context?
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“Which is very encouraging, as those two parties have had a hard time in recent years.”
Not as hard a time as they have inflicted upon the people of Ireland.
But you know that, don’t you? Anyway, troll on…
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Its encouraging because I don’t think Sinn Féin is a helpful party. At one time people thought SF might overtake FF, those days are gone.
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I think we guessed that your point was related to the difficulties that the rise of FG and particularly FF posed for SF’s ambitions.
I have to say – I think that SF have probably peaked in the South…
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SF up 2 points in the same poll. They’ll be happy with that too.
As for FG & FF, two halves of the same party taking turns in power with a third liberal centrist anti-nationalist party who have been pretending to be left wing to keep Union backing. – some democracy! Still, Labour are down to 4 % now so I guess people are catching on to the con trick. Is the 4 % just the gay vote that they’ve got left?
And the SDLP will model themselves on southern Labour. I hope they’re ready for single digit support.
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Any sign of a British General Election? A SF SDLP pact on the basis of pro EU would counter the inevitable Unionist pacts and it might even motivate Nationalists to turn out and vote. If 300k were to vote for pro Unity parties we will have some clear evidence of support for change and may well force a Unity Referendum.
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Author: the SDLP don’t do pacts with other parties. This suggestion is out of the question.
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Translation: The SDLP will continue their de facto pact with Unionism to keep Nationalists politically under represented.
How well the British have 180 degree turned the party formed out of protests against the disenfranchisement of Nationalists.
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Mary,
This site is not a platform for your pro SDLP and/or anti SF agenda.
Supporters of all parties and none are welcome here.
Unsubstantiated party political nonsense will simply be deleted
Thank you BD
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But bangordub PaulG has put a “translation” up which I must respond to, in fairness. So to respond to PaulG, I would simply say that the SDLP stands for very different politics from SF , that is why there can be no pact.
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Now you’ve given a response with some substance.
‘Very different politics’ is the reason there are 2 different parties.
Very different parties often have pacts with each other, particularly when faced with pacts from greater political opponents in a first past the post electoral system.
Now the question is: Do the SDLP see themselves as more different to SF than to the DUP ?
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The SDLP would certainly see itself as very different from both, PaulG. It simply does not do pacts with other parties.
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For a Nationalist party not to counter a Unionist pact in a constituency is tantamount to colluding in it’s aim of disenfranchising Nationalists. There is no fence to sit on in these situations.
Would the SDLP enter a pact if it had strategically sufficient gains for the party or it’s goals? of course they will.
If they could gain 5 Westminster seats, or save the NHS in NI or 5,000 jobs in Derry, or swing a border to poll to UI? Of course they will.
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Mary,
my final comment on this is simple, feel free to engage in robust discussion and please argue your case as you see fit but simplistic sloganeering doesn’t cut any ice here. If anything it damages your point of view because you are not supporting anything you say with evidence of any kind.
I’m cutting you a lot of slack in the hope you are learning something. It helps nobody if you come across as merely opinionated.
I think most regulars on this site are happy to hear a contrary point of view, indeed I have hosted some Unionist guest blogs, but you need to construct your arguments carefully and think them through.
You are actually damaging the SDLP viewpoint by merely slinging mud at SF.
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Hi Mary,
In the run up to the South’s recent general election the SDLP leader Colm Eastwood published a remarkably hostile piece against Sinn Fein in the Irisk Independent newspaper; just a few days before the election. He joined other senior political individuals who have also won the right to publish such articles unchallenged.
There are many ways to form pacts across the political spectrum. For an SDLP leader to openly attack another nationalist party in a journal which is -and always has been – anti nationalist and a vociferous critic of people like John Hume, anti peace process and unashamedly revisionist is for some people, pretty shocking.
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I think that the SDLP risk making themselves look a bit silly by saying, on one hand, that the consequences of Brexit are dire and constitute an emergency and, on the other, maintaining that it’s politics as usual and that they can’t counternance the possibility of any kind of electoral pact. (Neither is it very sensible to claim in one sentence that SF have stolen the SDLP’s policies and to follow that up with ‘we have nothing in common with SF.’) If we are indeed facing a crisis, why can’t all possibilities be considered?
Of course, it could be that the question of an electoral pact is merely academic – no elections are scheduled for the next few years and, by the time an election happens, Brexit could well already be a fait accompli.
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To be honest I don’t think any of this criticism of the SDLP is valid, when viewed from an SDLP perspective. The SDLP are now in the opposition and it is the SDLP’s job to hold the Stormont Executive to account. I think it is doing a good job of that and I think SDLP voters are very supportive of that move. As part of that role the SDLP does indeed stand for its own values, and will not be found wanting in calling out the problems with other parties including Sinn Féin. I really don’t see that many SDLP supporters would see it as being in the SDLP’s interests — or indeed the broader interests that the SDLP aims to promote – for it to suddenly go back on its decades-held position of not having pacts with other parties.
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S.F has misread the feelings of the nationalist electorate but the SDLP is illiterate. The only way I can see them making inroads is if they out green the shinners and that’s highly unlikely and the electorate would see through it. Promoting northernirelanderism is their game it seems.
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Promoting northernirelanderism would be a daft path to take as the Alliance party are already all over that ground and are making virtually no electoral progress. The SDLP to dismiss pacts is also dumb and I cant see why the SDLP couldnt support a nationalist/independent candidate at an election. After all we are only talking about a few constituencies in a general election. SF though also need a different approach, last time their offer was pretty much we want a free run in FST, UB, North Belfast and one other that I cant remember and you can have South Belfast. Hardly a deal to snatch at seeing as SDLP won South Belfast anyway.
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Has the SDLP ever given any hint it wants pacts? Sorry it just isn’t happening! With SF – no thanks! SDLP are in the opposition to SF; SF are just interested in power not much else.
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OK then as an SDLP supporter I can tell you such intransigence will only cause the party to free fall further. AS I mentioned earlier what would be wrong with everybody backing a good independent. The SDLP might actually want to engage with their voters, potential voters and ex voters to find out what direction they need to go in instead of just refusing to change and slowly accepting their fate as a bit part player. The last assembly election the SDLP had a number of potential gains and with the bounce of a new leader should have performed a lot better the fact that they were relieved to lose only 2 seats says it all about their ambition (lack of) and current state.
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boondock, I would say the ambition is there, and the work is being done. There are good candidates, and a clear position. Pacts tend to be bad for delivering a clear message about the party’s position, and they are out of the question in this case. I think they are a red herring. The SDLP can hold its Westminster seats assuming current boundaries. Indeed the FPTP system is not actually that bad for the SDLP; where it has seats it tends to hold them. (It was SF that lost Westminster seats last time, not the SDLP.) The SDLP has a pretty good set of MLAs now, some very impressive young MLAs, I might say, and some of the other candidates were really great. The SDLP has a very distinct identity and for all the critics I believe its a very coherent one that has an important role. It is an independent party and must stand up on its own feet.
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Mary, I can honestly say that I don’t share SF’s emnity towards the SDLP. If I were still living in my old East Derry haunts I would have voted No 1 for John Dallat, whose retirement deprives the assembly of an excellent, and courageous, public representative. But I fear that Boondock is spot on in saying that the future holds nothing but further decline for the SDLP unless they can forge new alliances. I’ve heard a litany of ‘revival’ formulas from SDLP people – better organization, younger candidates etc. Those things are important but they will only ever get you so far. The latest formula is going into opposition – let’s see how far that gets.
How many SDLP candidates came in on the last count in the last Assembly Elections? Think about that and remember that those final seats won’t exist in a pared-down Assembly. Holding Alastair McDonnell’s Westminster seat in South Belfast looks unlikely if the Unionists finally get their act together. (And the seat may even disappear if the next Westminster election is contested on redrawn constituencies).
The biggest challenge for progressive parties in the North is combatting the majoritarianism and triumphalism of Arlene Foster’s DUP, which is dragging society backwards and harming the prospects of people of all backgrounds. The best way to combat majoritarianism is to reduce the majority and eventually overturn it. That requires an increase in Nationalist representation that is within our grasp but which is being squandered by our parties. I see nothing shameful or sectarian about electoral pacts between United Ireland parties standing against a narrow, right-wing version of British Nationalism.
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I am very impressed by the SDLP’s new Assembly intake. The SDLP works hard for what it has, but pacts are a bit of a distraction from that work to be honest. SDLP has a very distinct position to the political party you suggest , and I do think that it would be damaging to enter a pact with it. The SDLP doesn’t do pacts – and with three truly fantastic MPs it doesn’t have to.
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Mary seriously,
Catch yourself on please.
I’ll let you in on a secret, the GFA was a pact.
The election of Bobby Sands was a result of a pact.
The SDLP opposition stance is a pact with the UUP.
All politics is about pacts and alliances and compromise and the art of the possible.
We all know how wonderful the SDLP are in your opinion,
Now is there any possibility you could provide some substance and analysis to back it up?
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That’s what I am doing – I have explained quite extensively why pacts are not a good idea for the SDLP, and why they don’t do them. It distracts from the party’s clear position. The GFA was not a “pact” it was an agreement. One that had a massive input from the SDLP.
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Gerry Adams’s party seems to me to be fighting on three fronts: the PBP/hard left front in urban areas north and south, the hard republican front (often these voters stop voting or switch to other small parties), and also on another front (in terms of whether they are competent parties to be in government) to parties like SDLP in NI and FF and Labour in the South. It as a party has in the past decades grown in the south and north quite a lot – but it shed more votes (absolute and proportional ) than the SDLP in NI in this yrs elections. And its growth looks diminished in the south – at one time it wanted to over take FF and now that is a pipe dream. Now it is running the government in NI it is likely to lose voters on all three fronts, as its competitor parties are not there to shield it. Some of those voters can be fickle, e.g. the hard left ones. The SDLP is not fighting on these same fronts. So while the SDLP has a challenge, there is hope that it can do relatively better than Gerry Adams’s party, retain its current batch of (excellent) MLAs and un time start to win back some MLAs. For this to work clear water must be put between the SDLP and Gerry Adams’ party.
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SDLP if anything has it worse. They have clearly lost voters to SF but they are also now losing voters to PBP too. Quite clearly a number of pale green ex SDLP votes have gone to Alliance and in the last election to the Green party especially in South Belfast. Voters also now have a growing number of independents and smaller socialist type parties to choose from and when/if FF start running in elections here my guess is it again will hit the SDLP harder however the biggest problem for the SDLP is apathy and the nationalist electortaes general loss of interet in politics here. If the SDLP can help reverse this trend then they may start making gains but that is a massive if.
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Boondock I think SF have it worse. They have to defend all the choices of the government. Some of their support base is actually a “protest” type of politics. So that will flake off. Difficult times ahead for them as they defend their government partnership. SDLP can oppose and will do effectively, exploiting to the absolute max each and every difficulty that SF get them selves into.
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Mary,
Could you please tell us the SDLP position rather than constantly misinterpreting and spinning your opinions on the SF position? As I’ve previously explained the readers on this site are very capable of making their own minds up.
Frankly, silly comments like
“Some of their support base is actually a “protest” type of politics. So that will flake off”
are like something I experienced in my debating society at 13 years of age in my CBS almer mater
Up your game Mary!
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Bangordub, to clarify, I posit that it seems likely that many of SF’s longstanding voters in NI were *not* voting for “a competent party of coalition government”, but rather, for a more oppositional political offering. Their support may well be tested by a further 5 years of the compromises needed as partners of the DUP up at Stormont. I would further aver that the SDLP can exploit that weakness.
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Mary,
Thank you for that, what do you base your opinion of SF voter intentions upon?
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A poster above said:
“I believe only IRE or UK citizens will have a vote in border poll.”
No-one seems to have commented – but I don’t think this is necessarily true, is it?
If I recall correctly, the Scottish Independence Referendum allowed any EU nationals resident to vote. Or perhaps that would be blocked here by Unionists?
If I am right, it would seem there might be a significant factor in EU nationals like the Polish here. Unsure how much and would be grateful for illumination here.
I badly need educating about these issues and am very, very grateful to the work done on this blog over years.
(Incidentally, I am a British-American Catholic living in the North and I would vote UI in an instant.)
Keep up the good work, Bangordub. Very much looking forward to more.
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Thank you for your kind words,
I like to think of this blog as a community of sorts and although not everyone comments it is the likes of what you say above that keeps me going.
It is much appreciated
BD
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The GFA leaves it ambiguous and of course Stormont/Westminster have the power to ignore any provision so eligibility will be whatever it ends up being.
The GFA makes a reference to the “people of Ireland” which is ambiguous for NI & RoI implying IE/UK citizens resident in NI only. Then the Annex refers to NI holding a poll of “the people of Northern Ireland” which could be all residents of age.
There’s 50k EU residents and ~25 to 35k (ish) non-EU. With Brexit that would be another 50k votes in the re-unification column, can’t seen Unionism being too happy with that.
The eligibility battle will be interesting, it will reveal the intentions of the players and could even be the margin of victory. When the discussion starts happening in earnest you’ll know the poll isn’t far away.
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I would argue that it would be best to have a UI based on good foundations and that we should win it based on those who would normally vote in elections.
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Do you not see the sense in motivating those who don’t vote to make the trip to the polling station?
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I for one would be interested in hearing that argument.
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So Mary,
Are you saying that it should be won without the votes of traditionally abstaining republicans and socialists or those who’ve been so disgusted with the State that they have tried to ignore it.
Sounds like the only UI you are interested in is one where the narrow minded and petty, Catholic, minor professional class of SDLP voters, somehow get a huge majority. Even then they wouldn’t have the balls go for UI.
In fact, that opportunity is the last thing they’d want as their bluff would be well and truly called and they wouldn’t be able to pretend to be small n, pale green nationalists while profiting from their working class neighbours, secured by the Queens writ.
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Great to see SDLP doing a good job in opposition. Many people here think that SDLP should do pacts. But pacts would undermine SDLP’s ability to hold the other parties to account.
Bangordub will you be doing a blog on the SF NAMA scandal?
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Good points Mary. Sinn fein seem pretty much at sixes and sevens these days. At least the SDLP can stand apart from this scandal. Very good stuff from Patsy McGlone yesterday in the Irish News.
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I agree Catholic Voter. Colum Eastwood has asked 5 pertinent questions of SF over this scandal:
1. What other witnesses did Sinn Féin MLA Daithí McKay & Sinn Féin adviser Thomas O’Hara coach prior to their appearance at NAMA inquiry?
2. Did the Finance Minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir receive any communication from either the Committee Chair Daithí McKay or Thomas O’Hara to ensure that Jamie Bryson’s evidence was heard in open session?
3. Was the current Finance Minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir prepped in advance of Jamie Bryson’s choreographed appearance at the Stormont Finance Committee?
4. Did Finance Minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir receive any communication from McKay or O’Hara with regard to the appearance of any other witnesses?
5. When was Joint First Minister Martin McGuinness made aware of these allegations and what precise steps did he take once he found out? How many members of Sinn Féin did he speak to?
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The SDLP are engaging in petty party political point scoring. Sad to see.
At a time when the SDLP should be supporting SF against the Unionists, they join in with these attacks for narrow party party advantage.
I agree with all those who have criticised the SDLP on this forum.
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When Catholics are still undergoing the marching season, for the SDLP to attack SF really takes the biscuit in terms of petty party political point scoring.
The SDLP should be standing with SF at this time.
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Well said SFS,
Can’t add a thing to that except there are those who have a vested interest in sowing division within nationalism.
BD
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Interesting to see the UK electoral boundary re-organization re-appear. NI constituencies very much in play: https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2016/08/boundary_change-zip/giv-31075eZmiLFjZULeC/
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Those maps are fascinating and clearly indicate the protestants are in decline – so many of the “too small” constituencies are in protestant areas.
So when its all rearranged I would expect to see the DUP lose a seat and SF keep all its.
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The original idea was to merge some of East Derry & West Tyrone into a seat called ‘Glenshane’. This would have a strong Nationalist majority and would almost certainly mean Gregory Campbell having more time to devote to political satire. Parts of South Belfast & East Belfast being merged throws up the prospect of there being enough Nationalist voters to thwart the DUP but not enough to get a Nationalist elected.That seat has Naomi Long’s name on it, methinks.
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Bangordub around this time Horseman would have done a “balance sheet “of where we stand in terms of number of Catholics. Do you plan to do one soon as it would be very interesting if Catholics are in a majority now.
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Yes Fred, thanks for that excellent idea. Im currently in Italy until next week but will get onto that upon my return, hopefully get some stats crunched by late next week
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This might come in handy, Bangordub. Not so interesting that it would take your mind off Italy mind you.
Click to access MYE15_Bulletin.pdf
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My impression is that protestants are emigrating (university etc) and don’t come back and that their birth rate is low. Catholics are not emigrating and a huge number have moved into the north in recent times, while their birth rate is higher. So really the catholic community must by now have grown a lot and may actually by now be in the majority.
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There is an “orange flight” effect where the more Catholics there are the more uncomfortable protestants are, and the more the protestants leave, which accelerates the whole process IMHO.
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hope you didn’t get caught up in the earthquake zone!
here’s a little info on recent earthquakes in italy for any interested readers https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/08/27/how-long-will-the-italian-republic-act-as-a-serial-killer/
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New boundaries need to look at them closely to see the possible outcome. Looks good for SF at first glance
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Yes, returning to Ireland tomorrow and will examine in detail, my antique HTC isn’t the easiest unfortunately
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The raft of opinion polls over the years showing (conditioning) an absolute majority against a United Ireland taken as gospel truth. Opinion poll after Brexit in the Belfast Telegraph suggests to the contrary and it is only a laugh not to be treated seriously. Very strange indeed.
In the grand scheme Brexit changes everything here a majority 59% voted against what little England wanted.
On another matter it is very easy to get into a faction fight over which Nationalist party are the keepers of the flame for dear old Ireland, important take on board others perspective.
Will continue to call for the Nationalist parties to work together and for their supporters to transfer votes cross party lines, up to and including others such as the Greens, Alliance and Independents. These are the people to convince in a referendum.
The old arguments in time are shown to not stand up to scrutiny take for instance ‘the south cannot afford us’ that is no longer tenable
when the Irish Government can turn down €13 billion from Apple.)
If they can afford to do that they can have us.
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