What an interesting electoral cycle that was.
I think the uncontested facts are that Unionism stood still, SF and the SDLP almost stood still but took an almighty wobble, The radical left wing did very well indeed and the so called “progressives” eh, didn’t progress very much. That is despite the attempt by the SDLP to grasp the “progressive” mantle. I still have no idea what the term actually means.
This all flies in the face of the narrative of this blog but I still stand firmly behind the basic narratives that underlie the central premise. To be clear I still think there is a clear correlation between those of a catholic/ nationalist upbringing, and the voting patterns evident in the the north east of Ireland.
What is clear is that the nationalist leaning electorate are not actually voting. There is no evidence that they are voting for anyone else such as the DUP but they are clearly just not voting anymore, for anyone.
This is a developing narrative. Some respected commenters here are suggesting that there is a need for a right wing, catholic, nationalist party. As a democrat I’m all for that idea. I’m yet to be persuaded that the likes of Fianna Fail would do well in the North East but I’m fully open to them standing for election
Meanwhile, it is clear that those of a nationalist mindset are under-represented in the current assembly.
That, in my view, is an educational matter.
Disengagement from the democratic process is something that should concern us all.
"We in coming days may be" 
SDLP & SF are caught in a double bind. At one end, some notional Catholics are not Nationalist. At the other, there are some Catholics for whom the Nationalist parties are not Catholic enough. Vote share will continue to decline unless solutions to these new realities are found. It may well be insoluble.
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I wouldn’t be too gloomy a Catholic majority is coming quite soon.
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It is but it won’t translate into a majority for UI as things stand. I suspect there are some Catholics for whom a UI is not worth 6,000 abortions/year (the pro-rata number if the GB 1967 Act came to NI) or the loss of the NHS (despite the shortcomings). Some might also find the notion of SF potentially being really in charge unappealing (however strange that may seem to some on here). Answers to these issues and others do need to be found.
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Don’t you think that once there is a Catholic majority Catholics will vote for a UI and then sort out those matters later?
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I think that too much uncertainty in advance will increase the chances of a “No” vote in any referendum. As far as possible these concerns need to be allayed.
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I think that when Catholics are in a majority it changes everything. There will be a total political tipping point when Catholic turnout goes up. I am really not convinced all these minor details about what a UI looks like are important. That can all be sorted out.
Basically its easy to see what a UI will look like, more or less as the Republic is. That makes it easier to win. Unlike Scotland, its obvious what the UI would look like post referendum.
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A lot of people suggest the downturn in ‘Nationalist’ turn-out is due to a lack of a conservative catholic party but I’m not sure that’s the case. I’m from a catholic background and people I know who don’t vote tend to think local politicians aren’t up to much.
I also think Sinn Fein are a bit unfashionable among a lot of young, educated types.
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I am not sure about that, SF tend to garner a young vote.
It is the SDLP that garners an older person’s vote.
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The SDLP tend to appeal to the older voter, SF to the younger voter, Conor.
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If S Belfast is anything to go by (appreciate not exactly a bellwether), I think a lot of those young people are going Green or Far Left, or not voting at all. This in a constituency with the self-styled king of cool, MOM. Ditto West Belfast.
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You might be right. I’m in my mid-twenties and most ‘catholics’ I know don’t care about either – but are still culturally nationalist 95% of the time.
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conor would you agree with me that young Catholics care a lot about a United Ireland
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Observer, I never really hear a united ireland being discussed. I think it’s way down on most people’s list of priorities. I mean it’s the 100 year anniversary commiserations and I don’t even know one person who attended and I’m from Tyrone. Obviously thousands did across the north but the average person isn’t that interested in that stuff, even if they do like GAA and what not.
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commemorations*
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I really hope that Observer is right but I am pessimistic. I think that if we just bide our time waiting for 50% +1 we are going to be disappointed. Arguments need to be made, fears allayed otherwise we will need a 55-60% Catholic population (at least) to have a majority for Unity. One only needs to look at the disconnect between Catholic voters and nationalist seats in certain areas to see that this may be the case.
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This is the reality. People say nationalists dont vote because there is no point however for 15 years nationalists have known that only a few extra votes will give them a seat in strangford and despite demographic shift they are actually getting further away each time. Similar story in SA, LV, NA to a lesser extent SD, UB and EL where nationslists are underepresented. This shows that the 50 + 1 scenario wont cause this ‘tipping point’ nationalists just cant be bothered, the chance of winning or not doesnt seem to make a difference.
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Even if what you are saying is true (and I am not saying I agree) I think that the underlying Catholic demographic growth situation is very strong, and this tends to dominate all other factors, so it will take really quite little time to get to the point where a referendum can happen. I think a Catholic voting majority by 2021 and a big majority within a few years of that. I think it is not unreasonable to expect that this NI Assembly actually has just one more election left (the one scheduled for 2021) before a UI comes along.
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BD,
Can you explain the apparent paradox that Nat turnout is supposed to be lower whilst Nat constituencies themselves have higher turnout?
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I am not sure you need to worry about that. It is a minor anomaly.
The important thing underlying all of this is that there is a demographic tipping point coming in which Catholics go into the majority and this is happening at a very rapid rate that dwarfs all other factors.
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Sammy,
That is worth exploring but I suspect it’s the “Fermanagh” effect, In a tight constituency it tends to produce a higher turnout.
I’m preparing a blog an the subject anyhow
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BD
I would say that the rate at which the Catholic population is growing and the Protestant population falling should wipe out any turnout differentials between Catholics and Protestants in a matter of a few years.
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Yes but West Tyrone and Mid ulster have pretty high turnouts – and West Belfast had a (marginal) higher turnout than East Belfast – although all constituencies are ‘mixed’ the turnout rate is higher on a simple comparison between Unionist and Nat constituencies.
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Sammy I think that the differences are pretty small. Not to worry about them.
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Sammy,
Protestants are much more likely to vote in many nationalist majority constituencies. If you look at Fermanagh South Tyrone almost 60 out of every 100 of the voting age population are nationalist voters and 40 out of every 100 are unionist voters. In this election 30 out of those 40 unionist voters voted but only 30 of the 60 nationalist voters voted which is why the unionist nationalist vote was essentially equal. Unionist voters vote because they are older voters, they have a long tradition of voting and they continue to do so but they are not voting at any greater rate than they always have. Nationalist voters are younger and the older nationalist voters have stopped voting in significant numbers. The period from 1996 to 2006 was an anomaly in nationalist voter turnout when it was a bit higher than unionist turnout. It has now reverted to its traditional low turnout from the period of 1922 to 1994. There are also no consequences to not voting. Since there is mandatory power sharing there only needs to be one nationalist MLA elected who would be the Deputy First Minister with a veto. As in sporting events, voters like competition but in the Assembly election everybody wins and is in the government. If the Assembly was similar to any other Parliament in western democracies the unionist parties would have formed an exclusively unionist government for the next 5 years. If nationalist non voters were content with that situation they could continue to abstain from voting and they would have another unionist government in 2021. If they were not content with a unionist majority they could start voting and unionist MLA’s would no longer have a majority. The collapse in nationalist voting had already occurred before abortion and same sex marriage became issues in the past year so it is not about the lack of a conservative party alternative although the presence of Fianna Fail and PBP competing in all constituencies would raise turnout, perhaps by 2% to 3%.
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Faha,
I take your point but It does look a bit strange though doesn’t it – FST is not the most Nat constituency – Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone are high % Nat constituencies have a higher turnout than Strangford, North Down or East Antrim which are high % Unionist constituencies
If Unionist turnout was much higher than Nat turnout then you would surely expect that to be reflected in those constituencies which were predominantly unionist.
Are you saying that higher Unionist turnout in those constituencies where they are in a clear minority Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone is dragging overall % turnout in these constituencies above Strangford and North Down – this just seems counter intuitive?
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Turnout is lower in some unionist constituencies because the nationalist voters vote at a very low rate (20% to 30%) so they bring down the average. The unionist voters in those constituencies are voting at a high rate.
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Could it not just be that turnout of perceived nationalists in those eastern constituencies is higher than you think – it’s just that Catholics in those areas vote for Unionists in significant number? Is it not possible, however unpalatable for some, that some middle class Catholics prefer Sylvia Hermon and Naomi Long to the reps for Gerry Adams? Also, could there be SF voters in places like Strangford and L Valley who would rather have a Unionist win than the SDLP and just not bother to turn out? How hard do SF try in those areas?
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For example in North Down the SF+SDLP vote is now only a third of what it was in 2007 despite a growth in the number of Catholics there.
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Faha,
Having just done a quick comparison between West Tyrone and Strangford – Nats are voting at about half the rate in Strangford as Unionists are voting in West Tyrone. The impact of this is to drag Strangford down in terms of turnout. (as you suggest).. But I think that when (both minorities are removed from the constituencies) Nats ans Unionists are voting at about the same rate. Dont know if you agree with that?
If so, the problem with Nat turnout may not be a general one but rather specific to those constituencies where there is Unionist majority. If we equalised the (minority) turnout across all constituencies ie excluded those voting Unionist in Nat constituencies (and vice versa) – would be find that voting patterns are the same for Nats and Unionists – or fairly close?
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Catholics in mainly Protestant areas are intimidated by the presence (flags, thugs etc) and so decide to stay away from the polls to keep heads low and avoid upsetting the apple cart. This does not happen the other way around (Protestants in Catholic areas, by contrast, turn out in greater numbers because of their “siege mentality”.
That is turnout is low in Protestant areas, because Catholics vote less than normal (keep heads low), and high in Catholic areas because Protestants vote more than normal (siege mentality).
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Observer,
There is undoubtedly an element of that but it is difficult to measure and some constituencies which are affluent (e.g. North Down) are probably more likely to have an increased Alliance vote from ‘Nats’.
As I said above, interesting if we take the ‘minority’ vote out (of Nat and Unionist majority constituencies) and then compare overall Nat and Unionist turnouts?
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We did have a FF type candidate in Newry and Armagh in McAllister http://www.votailmartin.com/ , the stoners got more FP votes. I can’t make my mind up whether it is a lack of political spectrum, I would never be voting right wing but I would promote right wing politics to achieve a UI if that is what it took or crap government. Today I’m leaning more to Stormont being a political basket case that none of us really wanted anyway. Let’s face it, if we get a UI then the NI civil service will have to be cut to shreds, MLAs and MPs will be largely on the dole. We won’t want Stormont, it can be a big hotel. I don’t know many people that support big government in the model that is pushed here in a half assed federal system, no party is asking to pair down the system to the right level to make transition look feasible, they are all too busy looking to their own troughs and that is something FF might bring. I think they will get wiped in 2019 if they ever stand and Michael Martin’s speeches on NI have been awful, anti SF, divisiveness. If they campaigned on a ticket of economic rejuvenation and downsizing the government then they would have a USP that nationalist would start to get excited in. The numbers thing is misleading, I love stats but we are looking at the wrong graph type, we have the number now, you will always have the greys that abstain or can’t make up their mind, what is missing are the drivers that will still be missing at 60%+ if we stick to doing the same thing.
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I agree with that Zig,
SDLP are declining and SF are in a transition phase (North of the border). They are very slowly moving to new, younger and more energetic reps.
The discussion regarding a right of centre (FF) choice is one I’m quite relaxed about if it helps to raise the overall pro- reunification vote.
There is a lot of opinion and speculation out there regarding the decline in the nationalist vote. I think an opinion sample on this subject would be very useful, I’ll ask Lucid Talk!!!
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I’d love to see an opinion sample on it. Would be good to see by a county or constituency basis too.
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How do you feel about SF’s work canvassing in the North Down constituency? Do you feel they resonated among Catholics who live there?
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Observer,
Nationalist actual votes in North Down are:
SDLP SF Total
2016 A 426 307 733
2015w 355 273 628
2011a 768 293 1061
2011lg 338 0 338
2010w 680 250 930
2007a 1115 390 1505
2005w 1009205 1214
2005lg 526 0 526
2003a 1519 264 1783
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It is said to be about 14% Catholic in 2011 so by now it may be considerably higher with demographic change.
So there should in theory be a nationalist quota.
bangordub why do Catholics in North Down have such a low turnout?
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Observer,
A combination of factors in my opinion, social/demographic mix of potential nationalist voters is very different to other constituencies. Also requires committed, local, credible candidates and an active presence “on the ground”, not just a drafted in candidate prior to elections.
It may seem obvious but the way to grow the vote is to engage locally in a positive way with all locals and to be seen to be delivering results and providing a voice that reflects potential voters concerns.
This will require organisation and commitment on the ground locally, and over a considerable period of time.
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I posted a message here yesterday and it doesn’t seem to have made it, probably technical difficulties at my end.
So at risk of repeating myself first of all that nationalists who turned out and voted in places like East Belfast despite the inevitable result is commendable and an example to the rest of us.
Next the election result while it seems disappointing there is an opportunity not to be missed looking beyond a narrow definition of nationalism. We now have the PBP and Greens as potential allies in the other designation. It is the other designation that is a potential conduit for electoral growth of nationalism.
Finally there was a lot of negativity directly at Nationalists from the get go basically you’re going to lose seats or you aren’t up to much so that’s what happened. So best thing to do is learn to screen the negativity out. Unionism gained a net total of zero seats from Nationalists. Some things to consider but much to gain.
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That is very encouraging.
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I understand some nationalists not turning out when there really is no hope in a FPTP election but there is no excuse in an STV election. You mention East Belfast for nationalists but look at West Belfast for Unionists an area where the Protestant community background isnt that much bigger than the Catholic community background in East Belfast yet there is a massive difference in the election performance and the DUP really were very unlucky not to get a seat in the end.
PBP we have already talked about their designation. The transfers dont lie (of Carrolls surplus some 2300 went to SF/SDLP and er 30 to UUP/DUP). Carroll himself cant even refer to Northern Ireland as Northern Ireland in any interview. They are kidding no-one. Their designation was a fudge. Why? Im not too sure maybe they are hoping to be transfer friendly to working class Unionists but stats show otherwise maybe and its a big maybe that that will change at some point in the future. The only thing that did puzzle me was why they didnt stand in Upper Bann with an obvious large anti-SF vote just waiting to be tapped into.
The Green party are an entirely different matter. They are a party organised on an all Ireland basis. A very basic point missed by all the so called political experts in the media when they kept talking about PBP now becoming the second party after SF with representaives both North and South!!! The coverage in general was piss poor. The Green party wont be dead against a United Ireland but they wouldnt exactly be campaigning for it either. On one hand you could argue that their only MLA before this election was representing the most Unionist constituency but you could also argue that his electoral success coincides nicely with the SDLP vote all but disapearing. Its quite obvious as well that they won their new seat because a number of wavering SDLP voters decided to give Bailey a shout this time.
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re. “30 to UUP/DUP”
Was pondering on how attractive PBP were to Unionists – that has answered it ta.
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http://www.irishnews.com/opinion/columnists/2016/05/17/news/pbp-claims-of-substantial-unionist-support-are-a-fantasy-521862/
Irish news article today. Same thing in Derry. Claims of Unionist support laughable. Its a rather strange strategy designating as other, still waiting for someone to explain to me what they are at. The only saving grace is that nationalism is in such a mess their designation doesnt really matter but if the nationalist vote started to increase then expect a lot more heat on PBP regarding constitutional issues.
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From what I hear they are working towards taking Sinn Féin’s Westminster seat with votes from both sides of the West Belfast peace wall.
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boondock that is an excellent article in the Irish News.
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I had a couple of minutes free so I had a closer look at carrolls transfers. Going from Green to Orange.
SF-49.5%
SDLP-24.5%
Workers Party-7.5%
Green Party-12%
Non transferable-1%
Alliance-4.5%
UUP-0.5%
DUP-0.5%
Pretty clear conclusion
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Economist David McWilliams has suggested that a United Kingdom exit from the EU could lead to a united Ireland
A LEADING Irish economist has suggested that a UK exit from the European Union could lead to a united Ireland.
David McWilliams said if the United Kingdom votes to leave the EU next month “it could start a domino effect – at the end of which is a united Ireland”.
Mr McWilliams also said he believed “unionists have now an economic incentive to join a united Ireland because the union is impoverishing them”.
Writing in the Sunday Business Post, Mr McWilliams: “Here is the possible scenario that will unfold if there’s a break-up of the UK. The English lead the British out of Europe.
“The Scottish then go to the polls again, wanting to stay in Europe.
“They have to leave the UK to stay in the EU, and by a small margin they vote to stay in Europe but leave the English. Not unfeasible.
“The rump UK becomes an entity involving a eurosceptic England, a modestly pro-European but compliant Wales and an ever-divided Northern Ireland.
“However it is a Northern Ireland shorn of its fraternal brothers, the Scots – in a union with the ambivalent English. There has never been the same cultural affinity between the English and the Northern Unionists.
“Unlike many Southerners, my bonds with that part of the world are strong. Ethnically, without Scotland, the union of Northern Ireland and a multicultural but nationalistic little England is not particularly coherent.
“All the while, the demographic forces are on the side of nationalism.”
The economist and broadcaster suggested that “the union has been an economic calamity for everyone in the North”.
“Well, in the distant past, there was good reason to believe that the union preserved living standards in the north, but this is a myth and has not been the case since 1990,” he wrote.
“Indeed, the end of the Troubles, which should have marked the resurgence of the relative performance of the north, has actually delivered the opposite.
“Relative to the south, the northern economy has fallen backwards since the guns were silenced. If there was an economic peace dividend, it went south.
“Now with Brexit looming and the concrete and more profound underlying changes in demography, the issue of a united Ireland may be back on the table quicker than most of us imagined – or cared to dread.”
He added: “Interestingly, unionists have now an economic incentive to join a united Ireland because the union is impoverishing them, but I suspect they’d prefer to get poor in a semi-detached UK rather than join a much more coherent all-Ireland economic endeavour.”
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All very encouraging as far as a UI is concerned.
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Off topic for a moment but for those who may not have noticed and don’t follow twitter, My twitter feed is now visible towards the top of the site on the right hand side.
I tend to be much more active on twitter due to it’s brevity and I can post on ny phone!
Thanks BD
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Hi BD I hope this does not mean you are going to reduce the number of blogs you do. I hope you will keep up a good number of blog entries. There have not been many blogs from you in recent months. A tweet is not really a substitute for the level of demographic detail you can put in a blog. Remember Horseman’s blog and how impactful it was in terms of the understanding of the demographics.
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Observer,
I have no intentions to lessen my blogging activity but there are constraints to the time I can devote to it unfortunately.
I’m an enthusiastic amateur ! I do believe the strength of this blog lies in the variety and quality of the comments however.
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Its interesting how the Lucid Talk poll managed to call the drop in Nationalist vote quite accurately.
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