A guest blog by KenFerm
It is with no pleasure that I must say that whilst I was disappointed, I was not surprised, that FST was lost to nationalism, with Unionism once again donning the triumphant cloak of righteous entitlement.
The outcome was always on the cards given the dynamic being played out at home, hearth and meeting place.
Human nature being what it is, hope swirled expectantly in hearts even though the cool mind said otherwise. It’s still a bitter, hard pill.
A number of factors combined the last time that enabled Michelle to grab the seat, and a number of factors combined this time to reverse the position.
The dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone still stand proud and strong, the mist has swirled and, for now, cast an orange glow…… until the next time. All Change and No Change.
The factors that combined in 2010 were:
- Michelle was popular, with a high profile and seen as an effective Agriculture minister with a human touch
- Soft SDLP voters were able to vote for her without too many qualms,
- She didn’t raise the hackles of some unionists, with some farming unionists, perhaps being open to support her given what she achieved as minister.
- The unionist candidate was an unknown, and gave the appearance, however cruelly of being a lightweight but with a pro-union rosette pinned onto his lapel. That went down badly with a number of unionist voters.
- The SDLP candidate was centrally imposed and regarded as an outsider. This backfired and made it easier for SDLP voters to switch to the candidate with a chance of winning.
I would argue the factors this time that combined were:
- The unionist vote was more energised, given the closeness of the previous vote, and the delight of nationalists upon winning. It stuck in their craw and was an extra motivating element.
- The feeling amongst unionists this was a last stand pivotal moment, lose now and lose forever.
- Tom is high profile, well known and with little, if any, negative connotations for unionists.
- John was a local SDLP candidate and could be expected to maintain the rump SDLP vote, given the debacle of the previous imposition. These are people who cannot bring themselves to vote for the ‘dirty Shinners’. The SDLP vote was not going to collapse.
- Michelle is likeable, well regarded but had a much lower profile, certainly in her first number of years as MP, with little to point to on delivery and with a lack of a campaigning focus.
- Politics, as in many rural places, can be personal and the lack of persistent visibility told.
- SF relied on demographic change to provide a buffer, a false dawn that sapped their focus.
- Since 2010 a large number of young voters have left for pastures new, near and far afield.
- Emigration combined with a lack of a jobs drive & inward investment paid dividends for the unionists.
- There is a significant number of ‘traditional republicans’ who did not, and will not, vote for SF now. These are less ‘dissidents’ but rather voters who feel betrayed by SF and have mostly walked away from politics. South Fermanagh would have quite a number of such voters. It crosses families, friendships and such feelings are now bitter & deeply held. SF typically reacts as a stung porcupine rather than engaging, reaching out. It compounds the issue for the future.
- There are also ordinary nationalists who have simply switched off from politics, the squabbles and the apparent pettiness.
The electoral cycle turns and the dreary steeples shall remain unbowed, waiting for the next chapter of our placid yet deeply earnest contest.
The next contest for this Westminster seat starts now. The clock is ticking for Tom.
The campaign must start with an honest and detailed look at the underlying reasons behind the voting pattern & turnout.
The defeat can in turn be a motivating factor for nationalists; any misstep on fair play, equality, and triumphalism should be noted and stored for later use.
Engage, with honesty, voters in all their complexity, building consensus and alliances, across the broad range of nationalist opinion.
Campaign relentlessly on local issues, be seen to deliver on local needs and to offer hope and a desire to expect better.
Some other points that I think are worth mentioning.
With a Tory majority there will be a boundary commission that will recast the number and boundaries of constituencies. The realignment will not be kind to nationalism. It is in the common interests of Unionism and the Tories to ‘finesse’ the outcome.
Both SF and SDLP should or more importantly, need, to work together to counter this common threat. SF must not be tempted to play the ‘bash SDLP’ card. The Westminster boundaries and number of NI seats will determine the future shape of the Assembly. It was a strategic mistake to agree in a reduction of MLA’s per constituency before the review was concluded. SF’s over-riding objective should be to maximise the nationalist number of MLAs not just their own numbers. Both parties need to work together, on closely detailed policy and effective number crunching to ensure the best result for nationalism (and both parties).
With an English Tory majority, we now have English rule. An English rule that is harsh, right-wing and tied to a neo-con agenda. The Irish are naturally fair-minded, socially responsible with a desire for social solidarity.
It is an opportunity to shape opinion and sentiment.
The union has so far failed and will continue to fail all of us.
We deserve a better future.
A lot to agree with in that analysis. “Nationalism” threw away its advantages in FST. A bad result, even if there were just 500 votes in it. There should be 9 or 10 nationalist MPs in the north-east not 7. Unionists parties have learned their lesson and the results in this election will make unionist pacts the future norm.
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Bangordub,
You are right that it was a strategic mistake by SF to agree to a reduction in the number of MLA’s before the boundary review. However, this seat will go back to SF in 2020. The boundary review was postponed until 2018 due to the Liberal Democrats voting to do so. The LD’s are irrelevant now and with a Tory majority it will proceed again. There are very strict rules with the review and in the recent proposals for NI the whole Torrent DEA was added to FST and a small unionist section of the Killyman ward was transferred to Upper Bann. The new FST will be 5% more nationalist and 5% less unionist and there is no way Tom Elliot can overcome that in 2020. The Tories will do a lot of damage to the NI economy in the next 5 years. They will avoid too many budget cuts in Scotland otherwise Scotland will vote to leave the UK in another referendum. They are free to cut as much as they wish in NI and the DUP will be the enforcers of the cuts in the Assembly. It will be interesting to see if SF will also agree to enforce the Tory budget cuts.
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Thanks Faha, (point of order- the author is KenFerm) 😉
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Thanks Faha,
That piece of information on the changes to the voter balance on a redrawn FST has softened the pill somewhat. It promises a return of FST to a nationalist candidate and whilst 5% seems healthy I would caution against complacency. The boundary proposals can change, the voting turnout & patterns from GE15 would need exposed in hard numbers and a lot can change in 5 years; will Michelle stand again, would she want to; what will the quality of the respective SDLP and SF candidates be, will the vote be split further with a FF candidate. The groundwork for any campaign needs to start early and the mood of the nationalist electorate will be the determining factor as the years go on. I have no doubt you have the numbers right but personally I would not take anything for granted.
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About a possible FF candidate – there is some discussion in FF circles about whether or not to stand for Westminster elections. It’s all hypothetical of course – I’m not sure they will ever stand anywhere.
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Worrying that SF/SDLP vote has slipped back to 38.4%. You could add PBP the workers party and a couple of the independents to the Nationalist block but im not even sure this would bring the total up to 40%. Nationalist voter apathy is a serious problem now. Turnout seems to be way behind Unionism who seems to have increased turnout since fleggate. Some former SDLP voters are voting Alliance. The SDLP are a disaster. More choice badly needed. Fianna Fail must keep their word and contest elections in the North in 2019.
The Unionist pact worked perfectly in each of the 3 constituencies. They knew it would after the Mid Ulster by election experiment. Expect more pacts in 2020. South Belfast will go next time as I can’t see the SDLP agreeing to a pact to counter the Unionist agreements.
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Agree with that Enda:
Unionist vote down 0.3 from 50.5% to 50.2%
Nationalist vote down 3.6 from 42.0% to 38.4%
Others up 3.8 from 7.5% to 11.3%
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Not including PBP or Workers Party in Nationalist total?
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No, just working on the spreadsheets now, I’ve included a full graphic of FST at the top of the blog
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I think the unionist vote going down by 0.3 % – a fair bit of this can be accounted for by UUp voters and other unionists voting Alliance in East Belfast
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Why do you say apathy – I actively do not vote. I will not support the liberal social agenda followed by the SF and SDLP, and I know many in my social circles who go further and vote DUP. We do need an alternative party to cater for all nationalists, I am not sure if FF is it though. They too are going dow the liberal route and becoming a me too party.
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There’s two aspects at work; those that couldn’t be bothered, Apathy and those Disillusioned with politics or with one or more of the nationalist parties, the reasons of which are quite varied.
I take your point and I understand the feelings and motivation. My mother-in-law, a ‘westie’ from Clonard spoilt her vote because of abortion and the ‘gay marriage thing’. My partner was incredulous, my daughter was livid, fuming. In part it is a generational though I have no doubt there are traditional families where it is an issue and introduces a chilling effect towards the nationalist parties.
In contrast my mother, most of her sisters and friends don’t have an issue, and they are traditional Fermanagh nationalists; it’s regarded as a personal matter and have the separation between church and state in their own minds. It doesn’t sully the ‘married’ word or concept. I know of Fermanagh priests who have stated that love cannot be denied from the pulpit with the congregation clapping.
How people can think can change with personal circumstances; I know a very ‘traditional’ Fermanagh family having to adjust to have a gay son. The guy has in the past has bee great to my mum. People can then be conflicted as no one wants to deny their children or to deny them a right by imposing their own views on them. It has changed the dynamic and views within that family.
The irony is that gay marriage has no prospect of being legalised in the north in the short to medium term. Conservative unionist will block irrespective of how nationalists vote.
The gay marriage referendum is likely to be passed in the south, life will continue, people will continue to get married and gay people will get married via a civil marriage, a state marriage. It will impinge or affect those getting married in a church. The heat will go out of the arguments.
The irony is also that both nationalist parties are pro-life, with SF’s position softening for those unfortunates with a child that will die shortly after birth. The SDLP position has been clouded by casting aspersions on the detail of how long, who and when it can be defined that a child will not survive after birth.
The parties are in truth relatively close to your own views, they are not ‘liberal’ parties as such.
There are many unionists who held their noses in voting for Tom and in particular for DUP candidates, despite individual misgivings on particular topics.
I suggest, humbly, that you consider holding your nose and doing likewise and to vote for a nationalist party of your choice. When it comes to the future of our country, the provision of jobs, houses and infrastructure, our of being part of the Irish nation and having this acknowledge and publically reflected should, I suggest, be reflected in how you vote. Just my own opinion.
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I wonder if both the SDLP and SF are missing out on a possible feeling of frustration amongst nationalists over the ongoing antagonistic relationshp between the two parties. While the dip in nationalist % is some cause for concern it has not fallen far enough to be irreversable. Woud a SF / SDLP pact reverse the trend. Do a significant number of nationalist voters want to see a pact?
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Mr Keogh…as I recall from your contributions on Slugger O’Toole, you are no slouch at contributing to the antagonism.
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Robin, FJH,
People are fed up, and switch off, with the antics of the parties debating on TV and the radio. What passes for discussion is juvenile squabbling. It’s boring, negative and smoothers hope for the future. People switch off and disengage.
Nationalists are fed up with both SF and the SDLP puerile narky arguments, snide comments and dancing on the head of a pin.
Too many in the SDLP look down their noses in moral superiority at the ‘shinners’, don’t trust them and don’t like them. Are suspicious of their motives and resent having their vote taken by SF.
Too many in SF have a vindictive tone, are outright nasty when an arguable point or criticism is levelled against them, they react like a wounded porcupine. The focus of SF is to defeat and replace the SDLP, whatever the cost.
This ‘relationship’ and nature of political discourse only leads to disengagement, cynicism and a cba attitude.
Meanwhile hope for a better future , delivery on houses, jobs and recognition as part of the Irish nation all withers.
We are on the cusp of a new harsh financial dispensation from our Imperial masters.
What are your parties response…more of the same? Frankly we deserve better.
Both parties have to recognise we are in a new phase; a phase where consensus politics and alliances are a necessity.
Pacts are but a crude expression, in the current climate they are not possible.
It is possible to change the tone of discussion and debate.
It is possible to make common cause on issues; welfare, jobs, social housing, growth & development plans for Derry, Newry, and an independent university for Derry.
It is possible to identity common tactical objectives and make them red line issues.
It is possible to encourage, to engage and to draw in a wider spectrum of people into political activism.
As a people it is our due, as our political parties it is your responsibility.
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That is plain nonsense, i HAVE ABSOLUTLEY ZERO ANIMOSITY TOWARDS THE SDLP, i think they are currently on the wrong path but I would like nothing more to see them succeed in attracting voters off their sofas and see a revivlal in their fortunes. You either
Lieor are seriously mistaken.Edited by BD: Can we keep it civilised lads?
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I am always civilised Mr Dub.
Perhaps Mr Keogh meant building it up and talking it up.
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Very depressing election. I genuinely thought the nationalist vote would approach parity with unionism but this has been a huge step back. I think there have been a number of reasons for this.
1. Poor nationalist voter turnout. It would be interesting to see the stats for nationalist vs unionist voter turnout. My guess is that nationalist turnout is running about 10% behind. The reasons for this are many. Voter apathy, nationalist turnout has been poor in both seats which were nationalist certainties and unionist certainties. A younger nationalist population, young people are less likely to vote despite their noisy presence on social media. Are these voters actually getting registered to vote? Are students etc voting? Are young nationalist voters, not able to get to polling station on voting day, aware of postal votes?
2. Defections to Alliance. Many traditionally nationalist voters have turned to Alliance, particularly in Belfast and the East of the province. Both SF and the SDLP seem reluctant to take on Alliance and have done little to stem the flow of votes. Whilst tactical voting for Alliance was understandable in E Belfast, it seems that Alliance are given a free pass elsewhere.
3. Anti-agreement republicans. SF seem to be losing votes here. I suspect that these absent voters have been important to the outcomes in a number of constituencies, including NB, WB, UB and FST. In FST it would interesting to see the turnout in areas of Dungannon, that voted for an independent republican at the locals.
4. Generally poor campaigns by both SF and the SDLP. Both parties need to more than say they are not the other party.
The question is whether either party can learn lessons before future campaigns.
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Hi Gav123. I think you’d miss the point if you assumed attacking Alliance is a sensible way to re-build the SDLP. The Alliance vote was up by almost half in this election – from 42,762 to 61,556 while the SDLP fell from 110,970 to 99,809. That’s in spite of, or more probably because of, a range of attacks on Alliance from physical attacks to political pacts. Attacking cross-community partnership doesn’t seem to win many fans. You talk about the student vote. One of Gavin Robinson’s frustrations was that although the DUP had the money to block book almost every poster site in East Belfast Naomi Long was able to call out more than a hundred volunteers – mainly students – to deliver 20,000 “blue ink” letters personally addressed to her constituents. That was what Robinson was complaining of when he talked about a avalanche of campaign materials. It’s the SDLP’s social conservatism and apparent defensiveness that’s putting people off. Joining the DUP is some sort of pincer manoeuvre on Alliance isn’t going to make that any better.
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Gav it will actually be at least 8 years before the nationalist and Unionist electoral blocks reach parity. As it stands in the 2011 census stats, the over 18 age group is approx 42.5% CNR and 51.5% PUL
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Gav,
Turnout in some parts of Dungannon were barely over 50%, others got nearer 60. In the ballot box allocated to the Moygashel electors at Dungannon Leisure centre, turnout was a staggering 83%. It was just over 60% at the locals last year, when the now infamous flag protest took place. I’ve been informed turnout in Killyman was about 75%.
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KenFerm,
Agree with a lot of that. Another factor is that SF don’t take their seats – the Westminsters are really now just about beating themmuns. I’m not sure SF can argue for people to turn out at an election they claim will make no difference. I support abstentionism (perhaps I cant spell it ) but a downside for Nat voters is why bother?
Why not take it to its logical conclusion and simply boycott the Westminster elections?
The Stormo elections are what counts – votes means ministries and could mean Marty becoming First Minister.
There are 2 problems for SF going forward (FST will return in due course).
The first is their main personnel are either too old or simply not good enough. Marty and Gerry need to be able to pass the baton over to someone in the North – if not in terms of leadership – then in terms of gravitas and media appeal and there are no obvious candidates. They don’t have a Gavin Robinson(not that I’m a fan).
The second is the immediate problem – I think SF will have to collapse/stall Stormo to avoid being associated with ‘Tory cuts’ – if they want to continue to replace the Labour party in the South. It looks to me that they pulled the plug on Welfare hoping that Labour would get in and now they are faced with a stronger Tory party who have bigger problems in Scotland to deal with and People Before Profit in their own back yard. Enda Kenny will be delighted with SF discomfort and will be cosying up to Cameron.
If SF move on Welfare they are fecked and if they don’t move they are fecked – probably a bit less fecked.
The decline in Nat vote is partly ‘apathy’ but also because the Nat bus which was heading up the hill since the GFA has perhaps stalled and Nats on the ground can see that.
The worry for us (Nats) is that it may start to roll backwards and the ageing SF leadership is not quite sure where the handbrake is.
Worrying times.
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I agree about SF simply boycotting the Westminster contests. If you refuse to recognise the authority of a foreign parliament in Ireland why stand for it, especially when we now have Stormont? Unfortunately that would the leave field open to the SDLP who would use it to create a rival power-base and organisational structure across the north-east and so contest assembly elections as well. So SF has little choice but to take part unless they can see a way around that.
It is similar to the dilemma faced by the nationalists in Québec where you have the allure of the provincial assembly versus the federal parliament. The PQ contest the local one, the BQ the Canadian one. However the conflicts in that contributed to BQ’s electoral meltdown and PQ’s recent electoral booting out from regional office in the province.
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Sammy,
You are quite right to speculate on SF’s position now and they problems they face on Welfare and implications for the future of Stormont.
With a Tory majority both SF & the SDLP, anti-austerity parties, are between a rock and a hard place.
They have no leverage and no prospect of forging a common cause with the DUP and/or the UUP. There will be little extra significant, if any, money on offer.
Do they make the best of it and administer English Tory cuts. The scale of the cuts to come will be beyond the ability of covering welfare from a redistribution of funds from other budgets. They will be accused of hypocrisy and will be tarnished as the apparent front-men inflicting the cuts on the deserving poor, retrenching services and public sector job losses.
Do they refuse to implement the cuts and therefore bring about the collapse of Stormont with the consequence of our English imperial masters swooping in to reluctantly administer the cuts first-hand, Imperial masters who may need DUP votes as the years pass in this parliament. If given the opportunity the Tories will follow their innate belief system and will privatise our public services; health providers, WaterNI and water charges, deregulation of bus route licences as well as the full gambit of Welfare cuts. The accusation then will be why did you collapse Stormont and not help ameliorate the worst affects of the Tory years.
The timing is not at the here and now.
In the short-term the budget for this year will be set and agreed. This will take us to the 16 Assembly election and the 16/17 budget. The 16/17 period and certainly the 17/18 budget will be the critical decision time.
There are no easy, obvious options at hand.
Either option will result in negative perceptions for both parties, and are, on present form, likely to be accompanied by unproductive, political sniping. The disillusionment of nationalist voters will deepen. Ineffectual narky petty windbags will not engender positive engagement.
These are challenges facing both parties, and let’s not forget it will have a real impact on our people & their future; the prospective difficulties are a challenge but also an opportunity. This is only achievable if a consensus can be reached, developing a common narrative based on fairness, social solidarity and delivery of short-term outcomes that make a difference to our people. There is a two/three year period before the cuts come home to roost.
The timing and preparation of a supporting narrative, with an explicit willingness of ‘nationalism’ to collapse Stormont will provide the only prospect of leverage on our English masters.
An anti-austerity consensus is required; a cultural change for both parties and for others in society here.
The SDLP is currently heading towards the pan-nationalist route with antipathy towards SF.
As you say the SF leadership is ageing and the ‘peace building’ ‘problem solving’ phase has ended but hasn’t been recognised as such by SF, we are into the phase of delivery; requiring clarity on policy outcomes for the nationalist people and articulate, passionate advocates for the kind of society and country we want and that we deserve.
In this society our politicians need to project hope, a better image of ourselves and to deliver tangible outcomes.
Hearts and minds; the pocket and the soul. We have petty squabbling, naive policy making and a lack of attention of detail and tactical planning for delivery.
The first step of any challenge is the identification of the challenge itself.
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Who’d have thought that Mike Nesbitt could have arrested the decline of the UUP? Not only arrest but start to grow it? Not long ago at all commentators with knowledge were openly deriding him and used the words ‘terminal decline’ with the UUP, people were even laughing at the deal he arranged for the uup through the pact, I was one of them .
As a political operator he has now to be taken more seriously
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‘The first is their main personnel are either too old or simply not good enough.’ Spot on. On the BBC’s panel, Martina Anderson said precisely nothing of note. She was replaced by Alex Maskey who spoke well but who came across as tired (he probably was) and weirdly uninterested. Only Mary Lou had a bit of spark, but she isn’t going to solve the Northern leadership problem.
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SF are a victim of their own plan, Westminster is irrelevant, Stormont is ungovernerable, why would you vote? I’m a fan of the idea of the SDLP, a centre left socialist party but the results are awful, the leader is rubbish, he was hardly in or on the news.
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KenFerm,
re. “The timing and preparation of a supporting narrative, with an explicit willingness of ‘nationalism’ to collapse Stormont will provide the only prospect of leverage on our English masters.”
The question is – is this sufficient leverage. I think not and the SDLP is unlikely to give SF cover by agreeing a common ‘narrative’.
So SF to collapse Stormo within the next 2 months – with the SDLP carping from the sidelines with all the rest. Anything else and the Southern Project will be derailed.
Would you go with that outcome and timescale?
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Sammy,
Apologies for the length of this response, sometimes a simple question opens a can of worms, and for my sins I am a detail person. There are a lot of factors to consider and I’ve left out the potential impact of any SNP/English understanding as well as the likely machinations of the DUP on welfare and the SHA etc. It’s long enough as it is. 😦
Your question presupposes that a welfare deal based on SHA will not be made. You may be right but I think that would be a political calculation rather than a fiscal one.
If the will was there it is likely there would be sufficient monies in the system to cover this year’s budget. Monies will be found from other budgets , for instance; a greater number of public sector posts/job cuts could be front-loaded onto this financial year from the planned programme of cuts over the next 3-4 years.
This will cover the welfare mitigation schemes for existing and new claimants. The welfare system is notoriously complex and inter-locking, and the devil is in the detail, the cost and outworking of the mitigation schemes will be a difficult exercise for SF. On the present financial settlement there would be problems on affordability in subsequent years, the departmental regulations (i.e. mitigation schemes) are more easily finessed down the line in comparison to being codified in legislation, which was the SDLP route. It’s open to judgement whether that was mistake or not.
I don’t see, at this time, that it is either the DUP’s or SF’s interests to have an early election; for differing reasons may prefer to have the 2016 elections as scheduled. This assumes SF can obtain sufficient coverage on their promises via the mitigation schemes to give them a presentable case down south and to their own base in this part of Ireland.
The SF long term ‘project’ requires a Stormont and a healing process that reconciles our people whist the demographics runs towards a nationalist outcome. I think this is what lies behinds Marty’s ‘building the peace’, the gestures he has made and the concessions to unionist concerns. The voting patterns are, hopefully a severe shock, to this complacent inducing thinking.
SF will not readily relinquish the prospect of this strategy, a strategy that at least, so it is argued, sees local power in Irish hands, even if it’s within a UK context.
The rider is that DUP may miscalculate how far they can push SF and then all bets are off.
The issue and period of difficulty will duly arrive in the subsequent financial years. The 16/17 will be very difficult, but by 17/8 the pigeons will have come home to roost by then.
The reasoning is this.
We will know soon enough the Tories Comprehensive Spending Review that will determine the Stormont budget over the life of the parliament. It will not make for pleasant reading.
The Tories are right-wing ideologues who view the UK result as a heaven sent golden opportunity to fulfil their dreams of a small state, low taxation and an economy built on ‘liberal’ working regulations. They are in a rush; are confident, bullish and want to strike early in the parliament.
The planned Welfare cuts and associated legislation will be presented this autumn, they may want to phase the cuts over the first two legislative cycles in order to take the sting out of the cuts and their opposition. Of course the cuts will be preceded by a PR campaign by the Tory press. The timing & schedule of the cuts will be a tactical decision, the new Labour leader will be distracted and perhaps ineffective for their first year of office. The cuts will happen early in the parliament.
It has always been a tactic in the UK parliament to cut early with a fiscal loosening nearer the election to engender a good feel factor and with the economic indicators going in the right direction.
Given the time lag for the further budget tightening of Stormont’s allocation and the passage of UK legislation before the same legislation is presented to Stormont.
It is at that point, when both the legislation and budget settlement combine, both SF and the SDLP will have a major problem.
To stick or to twist with Stormont.
To date Stormont has not delivered for the Nationalist people; our concerns, our interests and our short-term goals are not being delivered. The end product on jobs, housing, infrastructure, education, Irish Language Act and on our sense of place, of our Irishness and national outlook are not being delivered.
With these factors, combined with further cuts, the question of Stormont becomes reversed:
Why should nationalists support it’s continuation?
Would fear of English Tory rule, dependent on a DUP understanding, be a sufficient reason?
What options are there for an alternative political strategy, what are the likely knock-on implications , what would the basis be for a Stormont return?
The answer to those questions will determine the future.
Having said all of that politics itself can be a fluid business so nothing is certain, and whilst our parties have a weak hand, perhaps the stagnation of nationalism, of voting strength combined with a Tory assault will be the spur they need.
Will our parties remember that they serve the people, and not themselves, that they will set aside bile, recrimination and petty manoeuvring, in favour of consensus politics and working towards common goals?
You refer to the fact that the SDLP would not give SF cover by agreeing a common narrative. Unfortunately you are right, it is on those terms that the SDLP would view it.
Similarly SF will not include SDLP in ‘deals’ or involvement on a common strategy or programme. It would be regarded as providing a platform, a possibility of leg-up for the SDLP at their potential expense.
They don’t realise that for nationalism to thrive, to grow and to develop a convincing positive message requires alliances, consensus politics and working together, and engaging/energising grass root opinion.
The end result is also a lack of jobs for places like Derry, Newry, Fermanagh/Tyrone; a lack of housing especially social housing, no independent Derry University, a lack of infrastructure and parity of esteem shunted into a siding.
The end result is apathy and disillusionment, and in time that will turn to anger and resentment.
Personally I am not hopeful that our parties will rise to the challenge.
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I would point out something – that not all Catholics are ‘nationalist’ and don’t want to vote SF or even SDLP . I know polls (I know to be treated with caution) show a significant small percentage of SDLP voters and even SF voters are status-quoers. There has to be some of this amongst non-voters.
Perhaps some of the reason for slippage /stagnating of nationalist vote is because some people of Catholic background, however modest in numbers, don’t believe in the United Ireland project.
There was evidence of this with NI21 where actually quite a significant number of Catholic background individuals made the leapt into active politics with essentially a pro-union party. Once they had a modern liberal anti-DUP party to join small numbers came out of the woodwork.
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Wee Lad,
Thanks for the comments, I should point out that the premise for this blog is that there tends to be a close correllation between the pro nationalist voting stats and the catholic community statistically. I don’t disagree with your point above but pro republican protestants are hardly a new thing either!
BTW, enjoying the conversation above, well done all!
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I know there have been high profile Protestant republicans through history, but where are protestant republicans now? They are tiny in number. NI21 did shine a light on modest numbers of Catholic pro-unioners/pro-NI/pro statusquo-ers, it must have crossed your mind that this loose phenonmenon might run deeper into NI society, contributing to stagnating nationalist vote despite demographics?
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But is that correlation even that strong Bangordub? Even in FST, the ultimate headcount seat if ever there was one, there is significant differentiation between community background and voting patterns. The protestant population of this constituency is barely a third, yet unionists regularly poll close to half the votes. That cannot all be blamed on turnout variations amongst the two communities. Much has been made of Elliott maximising the unionist vote, but the very highest turnout figures seemed to be coming from the usual areas; Rosslea, Newtownbutler and Derrylin, all with turnouts comfortably over 80%.
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KenFerm,
re. “If the will was there it is likely there would be sufficient
monies in the system to cover this year’s budget. ”
Assuming that to be the case and politically possible – then if SF can postpone welfare cuts for a year then that is clearly a better option – and I will need to revise my Stormo collapse timetable to next year. Easter weekend 1916 might be suitable?
But with PBP snapping at their heels in WB any weakening of their position on Welfare will leave them open to attack in their Northern heartlands and open to similar attacks in the South.
They could suffer the same fate as the Southern Labour party – implementing ‘austerity’ and collaborating with the ‘class enemy’ in the North will cost them former Labour votes in the South. Government is a lot trickier business than opposition.
Although SF were correct to delay until after the election (in case Labour got in) 5 years is surely too long to kick the welfare can down the road and with the Tories now free to test out their economic theories on the country – front loaded as you say – to allow for tax cuts before the 2020 election.
Tactically, perhaps, SF got this wrong. they should have argued from the outset that Stormo didn’t have the powers to avoid Tory cuts – and unlike the Labour Party in the South – who determined the policy alongside FG – SF could argue they were powerless to do anything about the evil right wing Tory economic policies.
More difficult to change the story now.
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In weighing up the factors involved in Gildernew’s defeat, I wonder how big a factor was the widespread anti-SF leafleting campaign by an anti-abortion group described in today’s Irish News? They claim to have delivered 20,000 votes urging a vote for ‘pro-life’ candidates.
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It was certainly a surprise.
I am against pacts.
For the record I am a member of SDLP…from 1973 to 1982 and from 2011.
I have no antipathy to Sinn Féin and indeed voted for SF from 1993 to 2009.
I have always been open about this.
But SF (and Alliance for that matter) can only advance at the expense of SDLP. They want to destroy SDLP AND borrow our votes….Naomi Long, Michelle Gildernew.
And for that matter Cat Seeley and Gerry Kelly.
As it turned out…both failed miserably to bring out their own votes. Dont blame SDLP …we are happy enough with our own performance (except North and West Belfast but we are not seriously worried).
We fought our own corner here….and for a change landed a few punches.. We would be closer in Newry-Armagh if there hqd been two unionist candidtes.
But look at SDLP performance in FST since standing aside for Bobby Sands.
And look at Alliance performance in West Belfast since standing aside for Joe Hendron.
The precedents arent good.
In FST, SF need to look at themselves and their own performnce.
They are a Party that is abstentionist.
And rather like Sheldon Cooper (who cant drive a car) got angry when his car park space was allocated to a driver with a car….Sinn Féin (abstentionist) are angry that their car prking space at Westminster was allocated by the voters to a Party who would use it.
It is NOT John Coyles fault.
As Ive said I have no problem with Sinn Féin.
But I am an old man and I am from West Belfast…and I know bluffers and spoofers when I see one. Mainly cos I am one myself.
When Máirtín O Muilleoir proclaims himself the poll -topper in South Belfast, he might con a few people on Twitter. But he cant con a con man like myself.
For the record, he came fourth.
Nationalist poll topper? Nope….second.
The average nationalist voter has no agenda. Probably motivated as much by Incumbency as Politics.
People who happily voted for Seamus Mallon voted Conor Murphy.
Now that Michelle is defeated, there is no incumbent and it opens up possibilities for SDLP. There is no emotional tie.
Of course SF will claim that angry nationalists will turn on SDLP in 2016. Rubbish.
Besides calls to punish SDLP are inconsistent with wooing SDLP.
Of course a VOTER is different from a PARTY MEMBER.
There is bad blood between SDLP and Siinn Féin and I emphasise I am not part of that nonsense but clearly since 2011, I see Sinn Féin tactics up close and I dont like it.
To keep it simple, three Dolores Kelly posters were put up in Maralin on Wednesday evening. Overnight they were taken down and replaced by Cat Seeley posters.
A mixed message there folks…”.please lend us your SDLP vote while we remove your SDLP posters”.
As a member,things make you angrier than if youre a voter.
There are people who are bullied and people who bully.
I know how I would react if I was bullied like John Coyle.
He is a braver man than I am.
I dont know how he feels today….But if it was me, Id be laughing my arse off.
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Don’t dispute a lot of that. The SDLP would also have tactics and stances that lead to recrimination.
Neither is good enough.
and just for balance I’d like to point out that local Fermanagh SF reps were sympathetic and supported John, and called out the bullies.
Fermanagh folk have good manners and are more personal & empathetic than most, in my unbiased opinion 🙂
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The sdlp figures show a steady overall decline. It could be a lot worse. Now with injunctions afoot and another leadership battle. SF can only grow by taking sdlp votes but what do the sdlp have to do? They can’t out green so that leaves the stay at home voter. Is there analysis to say what proportion of the sdlp vote has gone sf and has stayed at home since gfa?
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I dont knlw of any figures.
Mr Dub is the number cruncher.
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Is it simply apathy or is there something more to it. The new electoral register was published in 2013. The canvass for this took place at a time when Unionism was angry about the removal of the fleg. Could the 4 point drop in the Nationalist proportion of the vote be due to the new electoral register?
http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2015/05/nationalism-whats-gone-wrong.html?m=1
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Enda,
There may be something in that, it would also be interesting, and perhaps telling, if there a way to correlate the register against the immigration figures.
Just personal experience and local comment would suggest a large number of people have left in the search for jobs and a better life.
Non delivery on jobs, development plans and a regional investment strategy has played into unionism hands. It is in unionism’s interest to have Belfast as the regional growth hub, and to direct InvestNI accordingly. Nationalist parties signed off on this, a strategic mistake. A pattern of mistakes.
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And speaking from my personal experience many people in Kerry emigrate to Cork, many people in mayo emigrate to Galway and people from everywhere emigrate to Dublin. Surely many people in Fermanagh and Tyrone also move to the nearest city for work? Of course people leave the country but I doubt they do it for “a better life”. I have travelled the world and bar the urge for better weather more of the time I don’t see how or where I could have a better quality of life anywhere else than I already do.
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It’s jobs Enda, a variety of well paid jobs with prospects, which equates to a better life
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You don’t need to go to Sydney Vancouver or London for them. You can easily get a €40k+ job on Dublin if you have a third level education.
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Enda, I hope you are not in denial about the scale and horrendous nature of emigration form the South since the State’s inception – including in the last 6 years?
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wee lad,
exactly. Nats including myself are bit a defensive about ‘jobs’ – millions of Irish people have emigrated North and South since partition. That means a massive failure since independence to get our 3 Green Fields in order.
As I mentioned on the other thread SF’s inability to address the issue – that Unification may not mean Northerners are better off or at least as Jude suggested attempt to quantify the relative economic merits of a UI means SF arguments for a referendum sound like ill-thought rhetoric.
The Nat ‘apathy’ has to be viewed in the context of a dawning realisation that Nat progress (in the North) may haver at least stalled and that since Nat apathy was at a low(GFA time) the IMF had to be brought in to run the Southern economy – or face bankruptcy.
Personally speaking I more SF than SDLP – but if and when the SDLP are offering more progress on the National question – I’m if for changing horses.
Apart from filibuster(which I hope happens and we can list to the boul Alex Salmon talking for hours) there is feck all that the Scot Nats can do about ‘austerity’ and although I would have loved to have our Gerry in his pomp when honourable member for WB, lecturing the Englezes in their own parliament about the evils of Imperialism – the only option open to SF now is to let the Englezes run the Stormo show until at least after the Southern election.
I vote for collapse of Stormo if the Tories wont compromise – at least for a year (until the Stormo elections) and in that period invite the SDLP and the Scots Nats and Plaid (and the Unionists who wont turn up) to a constitutional reform forum (in Dublin) to agree on extra powers for Ulster(the Six) Scotland and Wales more powers. Might not achieve anything but it will ‘keep the pot a billin’.
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Have a read of this: http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/05/10/nationalist-malaise-facing-the-facts/
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BD,
That is a good analysis of the – known knowns (i.e.election result) what is a tad disappointing is that Chris hasn’t as both a former SF insider and now commentator has not offered any solutions. SF for all their faults must be fully aware of the ‘apathy’ – they are not keen to say that in public as it is inevitably pointing the finger of blame at themselves – and ‘their’ (the GFA) solution?
On BBC today Chris suggested that SF would do a deal on welfare – he may well be right – but hopefully he is wrong. Perhaps you can ask the boul Chris if we would like to do a post on here which suggests what SF/Nat tactics should be about dealing with the ‘apathy’ and or a UI.
Apathy is only apathy if your vote would make a difference the problem for SF is that votes in the Westminsters and Stormo wont make any difference if the Tories just decides to ignore their jumping up and down.
Perhaps Nat voters are just aware that the ‘internal settlement’ aint gonna change any time soon with the old demographic engine for change seemingly running out of steam? Unless SF and the SDLP can come up with a plan then the voters may be quite right to be ‘apathetic’.
Over to Gerry and Marty.
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Sinn Fein, in my town anyway, have totally lost touch with their traditional grassroots. The whiff of snobbery from them is palpable. They thrived on the narrative for a while that if you didn’t like their policies you are a dissident and want the dark old days to return. This kept must people in check but as time goes on people are starting to see the bull. They had the added benefit that the dissos were a bundle of eejits. 20 years ago people would’ve went out to vote to keep a unionist from taking a seat and to face down the claims that republicans have no mandate etc. Now that no longer relevant.
When republicans witness martin mcguinness lending credence to a queen and wishing spongers like Kate Middleton well it seriously galls even the mildest of republican. I don’t know who he thinks he’s kidding? I am sure a unionist would respect a republican for being honest and declaring royalty goes against everything he believes? I would respect a unionist if he said he had respect for james Connolly,Bobby sands etc but I would be startled if I saw him actively lending credence to these people after all why would he?
Add into that the crap that they are opposing Tory cuts etc(the stoops aren’t either) and you get the feeling people are fed up. Do these politicians think the people are idiots when m.l.a’s are standing alongside picketers protesting cuts etc? The whole point of a picket is to get the attention of politicians to notice and change things. So what is the point of the same politicians standing there with them? If they have no power then why bother voting for them. It’s purely taking people as idiots to secure their votes nothing else.
I also know of a few teachers who would be Sinn Fein voters but after their stance on abortion they are adamant they will never vote them again. In their thirst to get power they are telling people what to believe rather than listening to the people’s concerns. Principled concerns. It may come as a shock to the shinners but some people do cherish what they believe and not what they think is popular.
A Sinn fein cllr let it slip a few years ago when she stated that ‘we don’t care if republicans don’t vote for us as long as they don’t vote for anyone else’. Now that’s arrogance. To dismiss people who don’t agree with your policies can come back to bite you. Perhaps this arrogance was passed on to those anti abortionists too?
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Wolfe,
The real danger for SF will come – perhaps already has come from People before Profit – who can do unto SF what SF have done onto Labour in the South – ie criticise their role in Government. Equally if a Republican Group with no disser associations can argue that Stormo is a partitionist talking shop – even if they have no realistic alternative it would put SF under further pressure.
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As a long time (West Belfast) SF voter, I refused to vote for them this time because of their desire to force through an unwanted 38,000 GAA stadium in a built up residential area (Casement) which would destroy the homes and lives of all the people living around it.
I never canvased for anyone but I managed to convince 7 of my family to vote Gerry Caroll PBP and a fair few others in West Belfast. SF have completely lost touch with the people in the area. So much so they didnt show their faces at the door. If Casement goes ahead, Andersonstown will be a ghost town for SF votes not to mention SDLP who signed off on the monstrosity. The people of the area would vote TUV before SF such is the anger.
People also need to look at the big elephant in the room. There is no point whatsoever in voting in the UK general elections. None of our parties can affect any change. The Stormont elections are the only show in town for Republican/Nationalists.
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Sinn Féin are in a not dissimilar position now to Labour in Britain. Labour’s failure was caused by failing to sufficiently engage with the electorate. If both Sinn Féin and Labour don’t learn lessons from the SNP – bring the fight onto housing estates, community action, absolute engagement of everyone (particularly the young) – then they are doomed.
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This appears to have been a good and encouraging election for the SDLP. Much of the vote fall can be explained by the fact that an SF candidate stood in SB this time but not last tine. And much of the rest of it was in constituencies where SDLP are not focussing on with new candidates. In core SDLP areas and in areas where SDLP stood new candidates, the SDLP vote went up. I also noticed that the Alliance vote was up in many places such as South Antrim, as well as a growth in the Green vote. So there is much in terms of progressive parties to take cheer from.
SDLP will have a brand new MLA in South Belfast shortly and I expect that this will be someone excellent.
Set against this backdrop of success SDLP can hope to add assembly seats at the expense of SF in places such as in FST Foyle SA and NA with the prospect of SF losing one of their ministerial positions to SDLP.
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So good an election that the party wants its leader’s head on a plate.
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There is a lot to be said in support of Alasdairs approach including looking for a positive agenda instead of continuously looking over the shoulder to attack Sin Fein-and the whole policy narrative of a prosperity process agenda needed now to match the peace process agenda of yesteryear.
SDLP vote was in part down because of SF standing in SB this time not last and in part where there were pacts. (SDLP vote would have fallen less and SF vote would have fallen even more if you did iike for like comparisons in which both parties stood both times or there were no pacts).
He has seen a lot of new talent coming through the ranks, which is very important. Of course, SDLP is a party where people can discuss the leadership question, and leaders do change, from time to time, via an open democratic process, so its not surprising that some are thinking that it might be time for change. That does not mean the party didn’t score up some successes in the last few years in the council and Westminster elections.
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I have no beef with the SDLP per se. I just have absolutely no idea what they stand for.
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RJC,
Constitutional Nationalism is what the SDLP stand for – i.e. change without violence – and to be fair they have stuck to their metaphorical guns.
And if we were to examine which parties positions had changed the least over and through the troubles – St John of the Bogside – ‘its a United Ireland now or nothing’ notwithstanding – then the SDLP (and the Alliance) would probably have the least change.
In FJH speak the SDLP are surely the letsgetalongerists’ of Nationalism and certainly the letsnotkillanybodyoverits’.
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Cheers Sammy, I figured it was something along those lines, although with SF now taking the peaceful route, perhaps the SDLP need to shout a little louder about what it is they can offer by way of difference?
I’m all for more Nationalist parties not less, so would like to see the SDLP pull their fingers out a little, and take more of a stand against our Unionist politicians (and SF too, where they see fit).
When many SDLP elected representatives fail to turn up for votes (assembly marriage equality motion and R McC play park being the recent ones that spring to mind) I find it difficult to take them entirely seriously.
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It’s been a long time since I’ve posted on here, due to what Lemony Snicket might term as a series of unfortunate coincidences.
My tuppence won’t focus on FST (a job well done from my viewpoint and hopefully the constituency will be the better for having representation at Westminster) but instead upon my own area, East Antrim.
Sammy Wilson was of course reelected, that was never in any doubt. What was surprising though was that the UUP gained enough votes to fill two quotas (in Assembly terms) for the first time in eight years, back when they stupidly tried to run three candidates and nearly succeeded in only getting two elected. Last time out, they ran serial loser Rodney McCune and went down to one seat.
From the figures, Oliver McMullan’s SF seat is a goner, the DUP might lose one of their three to the UUP, Alliance will hold and UKIP might gain the last of the six. They polled over 3,000 in East Antrim, one of which was my vote not that I’m a British racist (despite what some may think on here!) but that I believe that a EU referendum needs to happen as soon as possible to hopefully put to bed the Brexit nonsense.
So EA next year will have 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 All, 1 UKIP. You heard it here first!
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Carrickally, glad you are still alive and kicking (and drumming).
Good election for youssuns and not so good for ussuns. Seems like the air is slowly going out of the Nat vision of turning Ulster (wee six) green – maybe a blip but a reversal or a standing still in terms of Stormo seats will (but hopefully not) confirm the trend?
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Thanks for the good wishes.
The Assembly will be reasonably unchanged in terms of unionist and nationalist, just with a shuffling of seats and a couple of independent/smaller parties on both sides.
As long, of course, as there’s not a massive change in circumstances in the next year.
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May I add my good wishes to see you back Carrickally, I trust all is well with you.
Naturally I disagree with your opinion of FST but the overriding message coming through here is the nationalist turnout or lack thereof. Perhaps a quiet summer awaits us?
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Carick, does the PUP stand up your way and if so do they have a chance?
I think generally the DUP will lose and the UUP will make gains. People are sick of the DUP perhaps familarity breeds contempt but the UUP now actually seem to have credibility.
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Hurrah Carrick’s back.
Best Wishes from No voting, Let’s all vote SNP Land, go figure.
Btw, some of those safe labour seats going SNP were up there in the people before profit winning North Down.
There’s now more unionist MPs in FST than there is in Greater Glasgow.
Btw Bangordub, what’s happening on the blog front.
That was one long winter with only one blog.
Missing you all.
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PT,
Yes I’ve been very quiet of late due (happily) to increased respesonsabilities workwise, hoping to get more regular blogs out shortly, luckily Faha and Sammy have been filling the gaps
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Thanks to PT and BD for the welcomes. My wife was rather unwell for a prolonged period earlier in the year and that meant that I had to take on a big slice of her business responsibilities. Fortunately she is on the mend now and getting stronger every day despite one setback. Perhaps there’s a Robert Bruce (or Nats in FST) metaphor in there?
As PT says, Glasgow is no longer a unionist city in political terms, based on FPTP and the referendum results. I fully expect the same approach evident in Londonderry/Derry for tolerance of the minority community 😉
Wee Lad, PUP standings are remarkably poor in EA. I think in this election though, if there was an absence of UKIP or TUV but PUP had been the only other non-unionist option instead of DUP/UUP, they could have garnered a couple of thousand, with half of that being the protest vote. If you consider that TUV and UKIP together polled approximately 5k, then you can be assured that a majority of “protesters” would have stayed at home rather than vote for a terrorist party. I would have been one of those.
And that’s not to say that I live in some ivory tower where I’ve never encountered “loyalist community workers” but the quality is so pathetic and the good that they have done for any community so poor that they frankly deserve nothing.
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Like yourself, I am an East Antrim voter. I can tell you my entire family (apart from me) voter for Chunky as he’s called, forget Mr Jordan’s first name. I suppose being a Carrick councillor gives him some profile, but he did well in Larne too if my anecdotal information is correct. I’d disagree about the UUP getting two seats here, their vote declined yet again and the Beggs dynasty is well and truly gone.
If McMullan gets a vote like this election next year then I agree he’s a goner, buy who picks up his seat is more difficult to identify. Alliance perhaps.
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Without taking away from the FST topic (ok, I will!) I had to go back and look at the results from previous years on the ark site for East Antrim. The drop is shocking but what’s even more hideous is the UUP vote management. In 2003 they ran three candidates and Beggs got in comfortably and then the vast majority of transfers (around 70%) went not to the other UUP seeking reelection but the new third candidate. None other than the once again defeated McCune? Unless of course there’s a dynasty there and it’s his dad, he looks too young to have stood 12 years ago although I may be wrong.
Anyway, through 1998-2007 the UUP ran with 3 and only had two elected, very nearly losing out on the second seat twice. In 2011 they did run two and only had one elected. If I were a strategist, I’d have dropped down to 2 candidates in 2003 and stuck with that, consolidating the vote and grooming any future replacements through the council. IIRC, in 2007 the third UUP was Mark Dunne, who was a Larne councillor. At any other stage, I don’t recognise the candidate’s names locally from Carrick or Larne Councils.
Maybe now they have the oppportunity for grassroots rebuilding. Hopefully they are sensible enough to do that because the last DUP seat is suddenly there for the taking. Surely they won’t be daft enough to run four candidates like in 2011?
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Carrickally
Sorry to hear that.
Hope everything works out okay for Mrs C.
On the “minority” thingy regarding Scottish politics i don’t really think that applies.
The SNP’s 1.5 million voters are pretty broad church.
Their voters could be anybody, from a gay 20 year old student MP to a Free Presbyterian on the Isle of Lewis.
Chances are, their probably pissed off YES voters.
Although there’s probably a few NO voters in the mix.
I wouldn’t read to much into what’s posted on hardcore unionist/loyalist sites.
Much of that it is space cadet material.
My reading of Scottish politics over the
last year is, the public want some form of DevoMax plus.
They didn’t like the idea of being bullied by banks, supermarkets or unionist politicians saying we would starve because we wanted a beefed up parliament.
Thousands of SLAB voters were outraged at their own MPs attacking them
A number of SLAB MPs totally misjudged the situation and ended up looking mighty silly.
SLAB have managed to lose half a million votes since 1997.
Even the Ulster Unionists have two MPs to SLABs one..
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