We are on the eve of the next election afflicting (sic) the long suffering voters of this part of Ireland.
We have a choice between the ballygobackwardsmen of the DUP and TUV, TV (Doesn’t like pacts) Mike, Al (turn out the lights) McDonnell, the “Ginger Ninja” herself, Naomi and the Shinnisters.
I’ll be doing an all-nighter tomorrow. I am supremely indifferent to who the next English PM is although I will enjoy seeing how the SNP and Plaid Cymru do. What I’m interested in is the following:
Fermanagh South Tyrone
Upper Bann
East Belfast
North Belfast
South Belfast
South Antrim
In my humble opinion these are the only seats with a degree of uncertainty.
The key thing from a nationalist perspective is to get the vote out. I noted with interest the North Belfast SF leaflet highlighting the census results. It was clumsily done but the reaction it provoked was very revealing. Perhaps Unionism should have put a sock over it’s Achilles heel?
” Two thirds of voters are opposed to a Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Ukip and DUP grouping, which looks like the only road David Cameron has left to achieving a majority in the House of Commons”.http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/forget-labour-and-snp-its-camerons-coalition-unpopular?
Has anyone told the DUP and their voters that they are strongly disliked in the rest of the UK?
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re. “I am supremely indifferent to who the next English PM is ”
If Cameron gets in it will be very difficult to see Stormo survive – the DUP (who will at a minimum be a security policy for the Tories even if they are not dependent on them for votes) will ensure that SF have to back down on Welfare and if they don’t – Stormo will be collapsed.
On top of that Cameron will revive the ‘panel’ the DUP are so keen on and we can see some sort of march in North Belfast.
If you add in the possibility of border posts going back up in South Armagh(should the British leave the UK) this election result has the potential to destabilise Ulster or worse.
If the maths are very tight SFs position of not taking their seats will be under incredible pressure – staying away in some scenarios meaning that Welfare reform will be forced (by the Tories) on Ulster. The stakes are extremely high for SF – they may or may not be right to stick to their policy if their votes would stop the Tories – but Martin and Gerry simply cant dispute the validity of mathematics.
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I’m not sure Labour would be interested in SF support – look at the flack they’ve taken over a hypothetical arrangement with the SNP. The right wing parties and media would have a field day with any reliance on Irish Republicans, and Labour are just too establishment to consider any such thing.
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Antain, that’s a fair point.
I think Labour would prefer to have SF support than be out of government – and there is nothing Labour can do (not that it would want to ) if SF voluntarily decided to vote in favour of Labour. But certainly the British Press would be on Labour’s case(lol).
But the pressure would be on SF to make itself available – Marty and Gerry could not argue that their votes don’t matter if they ACTUALLY do.
SF would have to change their argument to just uphold the principle – and ditch the stuff about the votes making no difference. Bit embarrassing for Marty and Gerry et al.
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Yeah, SF are already under a certain amount of pressure on the issue – Martin looked distinctly uncomfortable defending abstentionism on the UTV debate. The old ‘Republican principle’ argument looks a bit shaky when so much other baggage has been chucked out the Stormont windows.
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Estimated expected results times:
Foyle 1.45am
Antrim North 2.00am
Down North 2:00am
Lagan Valley 2:15am
Belfast West 2:15am
Antrim East 2:30am
Upper Bann 2.30am
Belfast North 2:30am
Belfast East 2:45am
Belfast South 2.45am
Tyrone West 2.45am
Strangford 3.00am
Antrim South 3.00am
Derry East 3:15am
Down South 3:45am
Newry & Armagh 3.45am
Ulster Mid 4.00am
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 5:15am
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I think this election is a treading water exercise. The DUP should take East Belfast, Nationalism should be taking North Belfast (purely based on the numbers) but it will almost certainly remain with the DUP. South Belfast may be interesting, rumblings about McDonnell abound but should remain an SDLP hold – the shock would be an SF win but that risks letting the DUP through the middle.
The 2020 WM GE will see both North & South Belfast switch to SF. Upper Bann should also be on the cards for a nationalist gain.
Stormont is up for collapse due to the welfare cuts saga – ameliorating these impacts on NI will depend wholly on how much dependence the minority government has on the DUP and/or SDLP MPs.
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re. “I am supremely indifferent to who the next English PM is ”
I can kind of understand your reasons for this, although I would hope that a Labour/SNP coalition would be more favourable towards Irish nationalism than a Tory government. Secretary of State for Northern Ireland tends to be the cabinet job that no politician wants (I’m sure I recall something in The Thick Of It making light of this fact). In a Labour/SNP coalition, the job of SOS could in theory go to a member of the SNP. Surely this is preferable to having some chinless Tory fool in the post?
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Scotland will be interesting tonight but does it hold an ultimately dispiriting message for readers of this blog: that even if the vote for a nationalist party increases, it still doesn’t translate into a yes vote in a referendum?
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Enjoy tonight folks, I’ll be keeping this thread updated throughout the night
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ITV exit poll:
Lab 239
Conserv 316
Lib Dems 10
SNP 58
UKIP 2
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In the Upper Ban constituency, Sinn Fein hopeful Catherine Seeley is reporting an exit poll showing her 2% behind outgoing Democratic Unionist Party MP candidate, who she says is polling at 30%.
The count is due at 1.30am.
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Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon 4m4 minutes ago
I’d treat the exit poll with HUGE caution. I’m hoping for a good night but I think 58 seats is unlikely! #GE15
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Barton Creeth @bartoncreeth 32s32 seconds ago
From @Telegraph
Second exit poll from YouGov has it much tighter:
#Conservative 284
#Labour 263
#LibDem 31
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Turnout percentages anyone?
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Nothing yet Enda
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The Irish News @irish_news 1m1 minute ago
Sources claim Simpson & Dobson “neck and neck” in Upper Bann after Banbridge boxes opened #GE2015
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Mark Moloney @MarkMDub 26s26 seconds ago
SDLP commentators sounding very worried about South Belfast. Any word from count centre? #SDLP #SinnFéin #DUP #GE2015 #BBCElections2015
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Jim Fitzpatrick @jimfitzbiz 21m21 minutes ago
Straw poll by Newsletter journo (right last time) in East Belfast puts @naomi_long vote up http://m.newsletter.co.uk/news/regional/e-belfast-exit-poll-tight-race-naomi-polls-well-1-6732413 …
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I don’t think I’ll be going to bed anytime soon.
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Bye, bye Willie McCrea. Which one of us saw that one coming?
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Well gavin robinson decides to show his true colours the millisecond he wins. What an ignorant prick. Contrast that crap to naomis speech – true class
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Another poor showing for the nationalist vote or too early to tell? Loss of FST is disappointing, and the triumphalism of the UUP and DUP stomach-turning. If SF, SDLP, etc. voters didn’t turn out they may well rue that decision if the Dupes and Uupes make whoopee with the Tories over in London. New local government rules and legislation on flag-flying, bilingualism, parades, etc. to favour unionist demands? More emphasis on “integration” with the UK and blocking or rolling back Irish integration?
Would the DUP and UUP support a Britexit vote simply to see the border reimposed as the north-east was dragged outside the EU, no matter the devastation to the local economy?
A great day for Scotland. A potentially bad day for Ireland.
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Agree with that ASF
Terrible run of results down to poor nationalist voter turnout in my opinion, FST in particular a big surprise to me. Naomi almost pulled it off in East Belfast and McCrea defeat the only bright spots for me.
I’m looking forward to crunching the full numbers and extracting what lessons we may
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FJH has talked about nationalism needing “grievances” to really thrive. I think there will be plenty of those over the next five years if the DUP/UUP secure access to Downing Street, in whatever form. A Tory majority, however slight, might actually be the best outcome for Ireland.
Overall SF, SDLP, etc. need to get their head in the northern game. Perhaps if Fianna Fáil do enter the fray things might change. For now its a bitter pill.
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Raw Figures!
SF SDLP DUP UUP Alliance Other
2005 West 24.3% 17.5% 33.7% 17.7% 3.9% 2.8%
2010 West 25.5% 16.5% 25.0% 15.2% 6.3% 11.5%
2015 West 24.5% 13.9% 25.6% 16.0% 8.6% 11.5%
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grrrrr,
Major bright spot is DUP will have no real leverage power.
Not sure what SF can do on welfare reform now – Stormo will look a bit wobbly – if SF don’t concede ground it may collapse. (that may be SFs preference) I presume they were banking on a Labour government changing course.
Dangerous times.
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Tories looking like they might just scrape a majority. DUP are kingmakers no more.
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The only real surprise of the evening was the UUP.
l wonder if our Unionist politicians will continue to trot out the ‘Union is safer than ever’ line in the wake of what was an incredible night for the SNP?
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Bad night for Unionism because of the Westminster maths. SFs position of not taking their seats not under any pressure but their vote share presumably gone down.
Well done to decent Prods of East Belfast for the backing Naomi got. Nasty speech victory by Gavin – damaging for him to present himself as any sort of ‘new’ DUP.
SF don’t seem to have any real stars coming through in the North – might need to ship a few in from the South.
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Shipping a few in from the south would do SF in the north no harm at all. They are an all Ireland party, after all…
I feel sorry for the people of East Belfast. The DUP will run it into the ground but at least they’ll have the flags, eh?
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The sight of Mary Lou irritating the bejaysus out of Arlene Foster on the BBC NI broadcasts was one of the few highlights of the night. I never knew the presence of a Free Stater could cause such constipated looks on the faces of unionist politicos. Perhaps more all-Ireland candidates would be a good tactic? 😉
Of course in the old days you had dual TDs/MPs, Sinn Féin candidates standing simultaneously in northern and southern constituencies but only attending An Dáil. Michael Collins represented Cork and Armagh while de Valera I think represented South Down as well as Clare. I think he fought a contest in the 1930s and won election to Stormont as well?
Mary Lou would be the perfect fit for Belfast South 🙂
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Sionn,
re. “more all-Ireland candidates would be a good tactic?”
I’m not sure about SB – the SDLP have managed to hold that with strong SF candidate – that is a really good result.
Even if it is a safe seat (West Tyrone) they need to inject something ‘new’ into the equation. The SDLP quareone Ms Hannah(?) on BBC NI was excellent and contrasted very well with the SF qaureone from Derry who was not. Maybe ship in a fresh face female Southerner with a granny or cousin in Tyrone and who can play GAA and has fluent Irish might be worth a punt.
SF need to be careful – trotting out the retired gunmen has worked well to this point – but it may be time for a shift of emphasis. Having said the Gerry Kelly’s (retired gunman of some note) speech was very good in spite of his disappointing vote.
Assembly election will be fascinating – with the near corpse of the UUP showing signs of life and People Before Profit (?) showing well in WB.
Can’t see Stormo surviving Tory v SF showdown over austerity – Cameron will be telling Marty to take his medicine and be quiet. Yanks and Dublin will side with Cameron. SF better have a good plan.
…but I don’t actually think they have.
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Sammy,
Guest blog coming up shortly……….with a plan!
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BD,
look forward to that.
Tories – over the line 327 – DUP out of the equation.
PS Miliband looks happier than Cameron.
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Sammy, I like the way the People Before Profit Alliance (PBPA) is now presenting itself as a coalition of various groups and not just a more media-palatable front for the Trots in SWP. That said their vote in Belfast was very good. Should give SF something to think about. Out-radicaled on the Left (if “radicaled” is a word?!). And not by rival republicans. SF has lost its focus in the north of the country and I suspect is loosing the next generation of would-be activists, members and voters.
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Notwithstanding the forthcoming post on post on SF’s plan (cunning or otherwise) I think they are now in a very difficult position regarding Stormo – theTories can sit and wait for SF to play ball on welfare. SF may call for talks etc but they have no leverage except to collapse Stormo – with Enda backing Dave.
It looks like they have relied on Labour to be returned and have no where to go?
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I tend to agree, Sammy. In electoral terms Sinn Féin is looking poor regionally while strong nationally. Yet regionally, the north-east, is their power-base. They can’t afford to loose their influence there. Meanwhile the Dupes and Uupes are turning cartwheels, as their news media and social media performances attest to. There is a strong sense of British unionism in Ireland being given a major psychological boost, if nothing else.
Aside from Stormont fiascos what effect will all this have in the austerity-hit, militant-prone suburbs of Belfast, Derry and Lurgan?
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Not sure why the BBC have excluded the PBPA from their graphs. Are they not ahead of the WP and nearly matching the Greens? Yet they presumably lumped in with the Others.
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