Tonight,
Ahead of schedule, it seems, I have learned that we have a deal for Unionist Unity at last for the May elections. Apparently the official announcement is due in the morning ( Wednesday 18th)
There are four constituencies involved. Fermanagh South Tyrone (No surprise), North Belfast (Stop the press!) Newry and Armagh and, wait for it …….East Belfast! Now that is a surprise.
Possibly of more interest are the omissions. Notably South Belfast but also South Antrim and Upper Bann.
Alliance may well view the move in East Belfast as a sign of panic in DUP ranks in that parish, Id regard it as an insurance policy. There is obviously a lack of confidence within the party regarding retaining that particular seat. If I was Naomi Long, I’d be licking my lips tonight, metaphorically of course.
Fermanagh? Tightest seat in christendom as well as the dreariest steeples.
My money is on SF retaining the seat. I base that on the demographic changes (On the way in detail shortly I promise) and the effect upon the nationalist electorate of good old unionist pacts in general.
Newry and Armagh? Not a hope for a unionist candidate, an obvious carrot for the UUP.
North Belfast? Now this could be fun. SF are very, very confident of this one. Will the UUP vote transfer to the DUP en masse or, as I suspect, will the middle class unionists of Cave Hill simply not vote rather than support the odiously and obviously sectarian manipulators of the local electorate (eg:Girdwood), their DUP representatives.
My take is that is a major win for the DUP. The only possible plus for the UUP is FST if they can win it. It is worth remembering that they didn’t manage that last time around with an agreed unity candidate, let alone a single UUP person.
It is fascinating that no agreed candidate has been selected for South Belfast. Does this signify an acknowledgement that the constituency is lost to Unionism? I don’t know.
I have the feeling that this election may be the last hurrah for unionist electoral pacts. They hark back, in my mind, to the hegemony of the single candidate days of the old UUP complete with gerrymandered constituencies and limited voter registration.
No doubt there will be denials issued that the sectarian headcount ideology or philosophy is in play. Make no mistake, it very much is.
If this play of the cards doesn’t work, what next for political Unionism?
"We in coming days may be" 
This is further evidence of inherent bigotry which Unionism is based on. The sectarian nature of this pact needs to be highlighted. A mass in your face campaign might motivate Nationalists to turnout in large numbers. The fallout within Unionism when this backfires will keep us entertained right up to the Assembly elections.
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“This is further evidence of inherent bigotry which Unionism is based on”.
Agree. the “unionist” candidate might as well say “I’m a protestant – vote me”
Hope east belfast has more self respect and returns naomi long who, by all accounts, has been an excellent MP for her constituents
i have blogged my thoughts on the controversial belfast constituencies over on the mirror – you can read them there –
for the general good of the people of belfast now and in the future, I really do hope no unionist MPs will be representing the city
so here’s for naomi, gerry, mairtin and the good doctor if mairtin doesn’t pull through in sarf belfarst
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Link to your blog?
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Thanks for inquiring Enda. here’s one of the articles.
I think it will be easy enough to find the others . https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/east-east-east-belfast-naomi-vs-our-gav/
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“The sectarian nature of this pact needs to be highlighted”
I have tried to highlight it here by showing a non-party organisation (the orange order) is distorting democracy in NI and consequently the UK.
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Exactly. Posters with those images should be erected and everyone of a Nationalist persuasion in FST should get to see what they can look forward to if they do not vote for Michelle
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Well lets hope this backfires hugely. Mike Nesbitt has basically speeded up his p45 because come May when he has no seats and a reduced vote as he has pulled out of 3 constituencies (north down also) he is going to look even more pathetic than normal. I mean a pact for Newry and Armagh is as daft as mid ulster and he actually believes they can win! As for Tom “scum” Elliot he has no chance to unite unionism in FST. if Rodney Connor a good candidate couldnt do it how will this throw back do it. I posted elsewhere that a pact on paper in north belfast looks like a good idea but can the uup be squeezed any further those last 2000 might just not bother however a pact might just be the thing to convince a number of the SDLP and Alliance voters to actually give Gerry Kelly their vote. Unfortunately I think Naomi is gone and no amount of nationalist tactical voting and support from embarrassed unionists will help her. The good news is that SDLP are pretty certain now in South Belfast and you just never know maybe karma might allow SF to come through the middle in upper bann
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I’m actually very curious as to whether the overall pro union vote declines as I believe it will. The effect upon the hubristic mindset of political unionism will be fascinating. I also have a suspicion that Naomi will win. Gerry, The G of Martin Mc Guinness KGB, just might but I have my doubts, Upper Bann? Tell me more?
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Bangordub,
Good to see you back up and running again.
re. “No doubt there will be denials issued that the sectarian headcount ideology or philosophy is in play. Make no mistake, it very much is.”
On a nationalist demographic website that is a little tricky to criticise.
The DUP have a serious chance of influence in Westminster along with UKIP in a Tory led government – which could lead to the end of ‘peace’ as we know it if there is a Euro exit and ‘border controls’ as the DUP want – we can imagine which borders will need the most controlling.
There should be a Nationalist pact in North Belfast, South Belfast and FST – there will probably be one Unionist gain in EB and a possible one in FST.
re. “hurrah for unionist electoral pacts”
This might well be the beginning – which could stretch to the Stormo elections. There are not enough policy differences between SF and the SDLP for them not to cooperate.
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Sammy, thanks for the comment, ps, NEVER buy windows 8.1. It’s a long story, I didn’t criticise the sectarian headcount theory, it’s the basis upon why the north east statelet exists, I had a wee swipe at the denial of that fact by unionist parties 😉 ,
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i share your pain! I have had (and am still having) my run-ins with windows 8 – disaster all round. can’t make head nor tail of the programme.
I don’t ask for much – just that electronic things work easily for me and don’t cause any problems. they’re only machines. they don’t have the right to hinder me from going about my lawful business of reading and writing posts on the world wide web!!
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Okay give in, Bangordub.
Why is there a picture of Robert the Bruce and the William Monument taken at an angle of a few miles apart in Stirling in the middle of this thread?
Are you sending out a secret message?
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Okay give in, Bangordub.
Why is there a picture of Robert the Bruce and the William Wallace Monument taken at an angle of a few miles apart in Stirling in the middle of this thread?
Are you sending out a secret message?
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Lol, Political Tourist, The tower reminded me of the one above N’Ards and I thought the juxtapose with a nationalist Scot, as opposed to a unionist ulster scot was nice. I appreciate that I could have picked a better image
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Good to see you back, BD, and with a headline-grabbing post, no less.
I have to disagree with those who see Unionist “voting pacts” as “sectarian”. It’s just straightforward party politics, albeit at its rawest. No different from several Arab-Israeli parties uniting under a single list in the Israeli elections to ensure the maximum return on their collective vote. The United Arab List could well be the kingmakers in the Knesset. The same thing happens in Belgium with Flemish, Walloon and German-speaking parties. Ethnic carve-ups are inevitable in situations of “ethnic” politics. It’s common across Europe.
I agree with, Sammy, above. Why is the Nationalist vote not being maximised through the use of agreed candidates under FPTP elections? That doesn’t mean only agreed SF or SDLP candidates but independent nationalist ones that could fairly represent the views of both parties.
What happens if SF and the SDLP face a united “Unionist Front” at the next Stormont elections on the back of Westminster victories? Will the SDLP continue their walk into electoral oblivion?
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Go raibh maith agat ASF for the kind comments.
As I have said above regarding Sammy’s comments It is denial of the motivation and methods that I was observing. I’m not convinced of the wisdom of a nationalist pact. Simply put, why should it happen? The “Herrenvolk” principles of Unionism simply should not apply in a republic. As always I remain open to persuasion
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It could well be that this will secure East Belfast & North Belfast for the DUP. Incredibly bad deal for the UUP.
Interesting to see the DUP say that a referendum on exiting the EU is on their shopping list for supporting a Tory Government. No doubt a new EU/non EU border in Ireland appeals to them greatly. What they haven’t factored in is how Scottish people might react to a British exit. It could be the trigger for a second Independence Referendum and who knows where that might end? Same old short-sighted focus on short-term gain with no regard for strategy. A Unionist Party helping to break up the Union.
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The Belfast Telegraph posted a poll result showing the SDLP made some limited progress on closing the gap with SF in N&A recently.
I can’t help but wonder if N&A has been tacked on to simply stem a possible unionist tactical vote here and create another constituency like Foyle and South Down?
While they may be chalked up to tactical votes among political anoraks, the historical records reports these as votes for the SDLP and if a third constituency was showing unionist tactical votes it could risk the reported unionist share dropping to around 45/46% overall and disastrous headlines would ensue.
I’m very interested to see the net result of these pacts. Previous pacts have been non-aligned candidates, so I’m not sure I can see party candidates with free runs out-doing an independent unity candidate with no party ties.
I’d like to speculate on how badly these guys will do and how badly they have to do to never run these unionist unity candidates again?
FST: I think Elliot will not only secure the whole unionist vote available, but will bring out a large anti-Elliot vote. Coupled with the clear demographic shift in the area, I think Elliot will must around 44% of the vote. Possibly he has to drop to 42% (below three clear quotas) for the idea to be knocked on the head for good.
N&A: Kennedy is popular, but i can’t see how DUP activists, knowing the seat is a hopeless cause can really be bothered to get round the constituency on a rival party’s behalf. Plus if the SDLP really is making headway and the UUP has picked up on the tactical potential then they could be prearing to ship votes that way too. Therefore I’d say a small reduction to around 31/32% . In order to pack this tactic in for good, a drop below 30% would need to happen I suspect.
East Belfast: Not very surprising, but if UUP voters were about to transfer on mass to the DUP they would have done so years ago. It probably wins the DUP the seat for sure, but might lead to around 30-40% of the UUP votes either going to Alliance or staying at home. Given the exceptional circumstances of 2010 (non-unionists polling 40+%) the two proportional elections since may be a better yard stick in which non-unionists polled around 33% of the votes any decrease to below 66% unionist will not be a good. Anything below the 60% unionist total of 2010 would be a disaster and would make it difficult to even call Belfast East a “unionist” seat anymore.
North Belfast: Possibly the most long term stupid decision. The pact will see Dodds win this time but there were only 2000 UUP votes left to garner and they would probably have all been voting for him anyway if they didn’t have some sort of hang up with the party. SF saw a drop in 2014 so this is perfect to get their vote out as well as annoy the SDLP and Alliance supporters in the area. I think the pact will only move the DUP up to around 44% with SF on 37% and the SDLP on 11%. I think this move will put nationalists into a clear lead overall in NB. However as long as Dodds is holding on it’ll be continued. Again if the unionist share drops to 3 bare quotas and the Alliance candidate surfs in on UUP/Green/other eliminations and nationalist surpluses then that would put the 3rd unionist seat under severe pressure. By that stage it’s probably too alte to turn back anyway.
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NB is gonna be fascinating, thanks for that post
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The DUP have set out their priorities in terms of the support they would give in the next election:
*Scrapping the bedroom tax. The DUP supports the Labour party position on this.
*Energy costs: here the DUP supports Ed Miliband’s emphasis on constraining energy prices.
*Maintaining defense spending at 2%.
The DUP have said they could support either Labour or the Conservatives, and I would expect them to work with whichever was the larger party, or more likely to emerge. That is they will not try to determine the government, rather they will aim to support whichever one emerges.
The DUP’s agreement with the UUP seems to be only in FPTP elections (which is now limited to Westminster elections) and again only in areas where there is mutual advantage to unionist politics. Both parties are strongly unionist in terms of politics so this is not something surprising. It is also something that is popular with the unionist electorate.
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It is a question of optics for me. What was really the difference between the Haas talks and the Stormont House Agreement? In regards parading, flags and the past very little. With the troublesome matter of welfare reform was that not within the bounds of the previous agreement? So why does the DUP need to make scrapping the bedroom tax a precondition for a deal at Westminster? Done for the electorate of course it’s a matter of timing, look at us look and at what we did. We are in charge. Goes so far as their previous European election broadcast claiming credit for policies implemented by other parties. Like I previously said optics.
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I think the relevant point here, theguarantor, is that it’s very difficult to break from parity (in terms of admin and IT costs) so that its better (and less costly) to make these changes at Westminster level.
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Since this is a demographic blog it would be interesting to have a blog post on this research:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31905764
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The study argues “there are two genetic groupings in Northern Ireland: one of which also contains individuals across the sea in western Scotland and the Highlands; the other contains individuals in southern Scotland and southern England. The former appears to reflect the kingdom of Dalriada 1,500 years ago; the other probably represents the settlers of the Ulster Plantations.”
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rowan – in your view what influence does “genetic grouping” have on voting preferences?
Like many people in ireland I am a tall, blue-eyed blond Aryan-type – due to my genetic heritage . How do you think that influences my decision on who to vote for?
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This is a good pact from the SDLP’s point of view, keeping Alasdair in South Belfast.
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It puts most pressure on SDLP’s two competitors: Alliance and SF.
Very impressed by some of the candidates SDLP are picking.
SF seem all at sea lately.
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SDLP will be able to join those to vote against Tory cuts – every vote needed.
Every SF MP elected reduces the number of seats the Tories need to form a govt and implement cuts. Every SDLP MP voted increases it.
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Godfrey,
Thanks for your comments. Could we have more of your own thoughts though? I welcome an SDLP voice here but electioneering can sometimes be counter productive BD
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Godfrey’s point makes a lot of sense. The Conservatives will find it marginally easier to form a majority for every SF MP elected (because of abstention) but they will find it marginally harder for every SDLP MP elected (because they vote against the Conservatives). Looking at the big welfare cuts planned by the Conservatives in yesterday’s budget, that seems a relevant factor.
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Rowan,
I must admit it is a matter of complete indifference to me who forms the next westminster govt. Historically better deals have been done with the Tories than the Labour party from a republican view but be assured of two things. 1 Neither party could give a flying falujah about anything other than gaining power at this election, certainly not the corner of their Kingdom smaller than Birmingham which creates more headaches and absorbs more funds than Bahrain (I’m exaggerating).
2. Going on Gregory Campbell on BBC the other night, the DUP electoral strategy seems to be about holding the balance of power. Let me be clear, That will not happen.
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Bangordub
The level of public spending set in London determines through the Barnett Formula how much there is for each devolved government to spend. That’s why all parties such as SNP and SDLP will be there to make sure – in this tight election – that Conservative cuts are not introduced. There is a significant difference between the fiscal stance of the Conservatives and that of Labour. This has big implications for Welfare system and the NHS, even in the devolved administrations, and especially in Northern Ireland, via the Barnett formula.
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The other big thing is that under Labour there would not be an EU referendum while under the Tories there would be. That is very important in terms of the economy, and suggests, if you support EU membership, that a party that would vote with Labour would be better for the economy. So there is a lot at stake especially with all the predictions being this time that every seat will count.
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Rowan, If the south east of England (UKIP) decides to leave the EU, good luck to them. Do you seriously think that the election here will influence that?
I would be rather more concerned with the fact that such decisions are entirely out of the hands of the electorate here and will impact people here rather more than they may imagine.
My own view is that I would rather burn my own tongue out with a poker than take an oath of allegience to a certain unelected German family dynasty.If you seriously think a vote for the SDLP or the DUP will make a jot of difference I’m afraid you are suffering from the age old cap doffering mentality that plagued Ireland for so long.
Elections are about accountability and decision making. Not about delegating those responsibilities to a westminster elite.
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Rowan you make a good series of points. Its important to make sure that those budget cuts don’t happen and every vote counts, its such a close election.
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Rowan the other thing is that since the NI Executive does not have revenue raising powers it will be important to make sure that the UK Government does not make cuts to spending, as these determine how high the block grant is, that is distributed to welfare and NHS and universities and so forth. You’re also right to mention the issue of the EU – which the SDLP has always supported unlike some. That’s why the SNP are turning up, that’s why its important that the SDLP turn up especially since the number of seats is so difficult to predict.
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Just watched Gerry Kelly on the Nolan show and the level of obnoxiousness, arrogance and self-contradiction on display put him down there with some of the worst that unionism has to offer. Alban was dead on in all these issues. I’d like to see, just once, SF acknowledge that for years they were happy to cost nationalists seats by standing against the SDLP when their own candidate had no chance and unionist Unity candidate were two-a-penny.
Before I imagined if I lived in NB I’d place a tactical vote to get that smug nasty obnoxious Dodds out, but now I’d be just replacing him with smug nasty obnoxious Gerry Kelly instead.
A truer, more honest campaign would have Kelly say, “we don’t like what the torys are doing, but we’ll not actually oppose their agenda with our votes but will stand outside stormont with a placard with “oppose tory cuts” written on it for a cheap photo-op.
If anyone is reading this who is an apathetic nationalist or a unionist disgusted with the pacts and are planning not to vote (you should probably consider voting SDLP jn these marginal constituencies. ) It’ll mean nationalists will have to take note that their is so army of voters looking for some more intellectually honest arguments from their politicians and if unionists saw the SDLP gettjng votes from disaffected unionists they’d stop it at the very next election as their base would fast become extremely narrow indeed.
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I would agree with this Charlie. The SDLP are really much better placed in these types of constituencies to build up a broad coalition as Alastair, Mark, and Margaret have done.
I am surprised that SF ran G Kelly in this constituency, a better choice would have been Mairtin O Muilleoir.
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Godfrey,
I’m pretty sure I said exactly that on BD’s previous blog. I thought Kelly was genuinely moderated and more decent but he’s full of revulsion for the SDLP. SF is trying to have it’s cake and it in calling out the unionist pact as sectarian etc.. and calling for one with the SDLP under the guise of ‘progressive’.
If SF desperately thinks this is imperative then they are perfectly at will to drop out of NB, FST, UB, and SB if they so wish. Of course they won’t though.
The real shame is the 50% of the people who have stopped voting. They could make such a difference if they wanted. The SDLP is more or less down to it’s core supporters anyone so might as well sell itself as the ‘other way’ party.
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@AdamMurray88
· 1 hr 1 hour ago
Just been told that UUP South Belfast branch voted overwhelmingly for Jeff Dudgeon to be their MP candidate, so why is McCune on the ticket?
Interesting look inside the workings of the UUP. Easy to understand how the DUP got the better end of the deal in the St.Patrick’s Day Agreement.
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“why is McCune on the ticket”
because the head honchos and the powers behind the throne decide
Remember: the more exclusive selection methods are (eg only party leaders and top level fonctionnaires) , the higher the involvement and the influence of non-party actors
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Only solution is the often stated remark make sure you are registered and get out to vote. Unless voters do there will be more concerns about plaques to those suspected of witchcraft and more thou shall not laugh. Pure mortification. Not a matter of voting to get themuns out but a question of the manner of society in which we live. As someone earlier posted about knocking the idea of pacts on the head, I agree with this. I have previously suggested here forming pacts including others like Alliance which would act as a counterbalance. Ultimately and simply pact or no pact it boils down to voter choice on the day – here’s to the rejection of vested interests.
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I hope the difference between the narrow pact Unionist Unity is and the pact I am suggesting is clear.
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In the 2005 westie election the SDLP secured 15% of the vote in FST. In the election of 2010 and faced with a Unionist Unity candidate their share dropped by 50% winning just 7.5% of the vote as nationalists flocked to SF. If the same thing happens this time around in NB, Kelly should get about 39% of the vote with SDLP on 7%, Alliance squeezed to about 4% and Dodds safely home with 50%. BUT, NB could be a place where we see the demographic shift really start to kick in for Belfast.If nationalism can get the vote out this will be incredibly close call and possibly the last time a Unionist will win the seat.
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DUP/UUP combined vote in 2010 was below 48%. Would be surprised to see any increase. Think the SDLP vote wont crash here like FST and will get their usual 4000 votes. Dodds to win but not by much, 15000 to about 13500 for Kelly.
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This is certainly the most interesting constituency this time out. I’m curious to see how the SDLP vote holds up, we may be at a tipping point where the SDLP voter is aging and/or apathying (forgive the verbing) out of bothering to vote.
It would just be absolutely glorious to see Kelly beat Dodds, just to see the milk souring looks on the DUP faces.
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Suspect you’re engaging in a spot of wishful thinking Robin. Given your presence on slugger, I can’t say that I’m surprised by that.
Maginness’s vote won’t drop to anything near that, if it did, people would have voted tactically. Given that that there were plenty of elections that Alban outpolled Gerry Kelly I never saw Kelly’s supporters desert him en masse at the next opportunity to elect Maginness, so why would you expect the opposite? Like I said, wishful thinking.
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Probably Kelly’s last election – he is 62 or 63 now, so will be past retirement time next time out.
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The SF candidate is of narrow appeal which is why he never wins. Compare with South Belfast: #SDLPwinninghere
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Mark,
I’d like to go along with that simplistic appraisal, but with the same two nationalist candidates for almost two decades it’s Alban who’s vote has dropped. He actually used to (marginally) outpoll SF, now he just fights to maintain the core vote and stop it from undergoing a squeeze.
I don’t disagree the candidate selection point regarding Kelly. But by that reasoning shouldn’t Alban be expanding his base rather than fighting to hold onto less than a quota?
Perhaps someone in the area could explain to me if Alban only has appeal to the Cavehill/Upper Antrim rd brigade where another candidate (Mallon?) may make more headway around Ardoyne and the New Lodge. I think the SDLP battle plan is probably to hold their own in terms of Alban’s personal vote rather than risk a newcomer being squeezed to bejesus and come next year have a politically ‘balanced ticket of Alban and Nichola to appeal to different groups of voters. The SDLP would need a miracle however to get two elected here in 2016. They’d firstly need to claw back 3-4% of the vote that has drifted to SF…no mean feat itself and pretty difficult over the course of one election, secondly bring out new voters who perhaps now see a new side to the party, thirdly, they’d need almost militant balancing to avail of SF surpluses and fourthly take the lion’s share of the transfers from the increasing Alliance vote in the area. Wouldn’t like to bet on that at all.
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Charlie: I think that the SDLP should really be aiming to take two seats here, and should target 3%-4% from SF in aggregate over two elections. The changes that come after 2016 when there are lots of students in residences, when Ulster University move in, should help the more progressive parties such as Greens, Alliance, SDLP, with probable benefits in terms of ultimate transfers to the SDLP. The area is also benefiting from an increased Alliance vote as you say and they will be in play for an MLA.
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This constituency will 100% return 2 SF 1 SDLP and 3 DUP in 2016. The party needs to concentrate on finally scoring into the open net in Strangford that they keep missing and maybe even look to win back their seats in South and North Antrim. Talk of a second seat here is as crazy as SF voters talking about MoM winning South Belfast. In 2020 the constituencies will be down to 5 seats which in North Belfast will mean SF/SDLP or DUP losing a seat depending on how much demographics have changed.
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I am not sure Strangford is good territory for SDLP especially as we go to 5 seats. There has never been a SF or SDLP MLA there. Better to focus on places like North Belfast and West Belfast and other constituencies where SDLP lost vote share to SF in the past and can win back after they peak.
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Mark,
It’s clearly not good territory regarding the constituency as a whole, but the SDLP has been kncocking on the door the last few years, including a 44 vote margin between themselves and the DUP in 2007. Amazingly helpful boundary changes didn’t see their candidate over the line and was around 400 short if I remember. Still highly marginal.
As for other constituencies, you’re probably right that they need to win back seats from SF in places like north and west belfast, and yet they are running perennial vote losers Attwood and Maginness and expecting a new result. Isn’t this a bit mad?
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Well we just will have to disagree. I think the gains for SDLP are not in places where SDLP have never had seats like Strangford but rather in places where SDLP have lost seats, and can gain them back. Attwood and Maginness should I think be supplemented in the Assembly election with a strong running partner and in North Belfast there is a very good candidate for that. I think in West Belfast SDLP need to really put a bit more effort in in terms of ground war.
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I’m not disagreeing that they should be targets, I just don’t see why it’s an ‘either/or’ choice. They can target both. I’m merely going on the raw numbers that says that the SDLP has dropped to below a quota in West Belfast with increasing regularity and is now depending on Aliiance/left etc.. votes to see them over the line with a 5th a fifth SF runner and a unionist also in the mixer for the last WB seat. For the SDLP to competing for a 2nd seat they’ll need about another 10-12% swing directly from SF. That is just unrealistic. A few hundred, if not dozen, votes from a few apathetic supporters in Strangford however seems much more feasible. Same goes for North and South Antrim where the margins are most definitely in the hundreds rather than thousands.
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vote tactically already**
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