The interview below was conducted for a series on Slugger.
I had an interesting conversation recently with the Sinn Fein candidate for Castlereagh South, Nuala Toman.
Being honest, I was hoping for an insight into Sinn Fein strategy for the forthcoming elections and, perhaps, a snappy line that I might use as a headline for this article to engage readers.
What I got was a smart, friendly, local political candidate who surprised me with her knowledge, intelligence and experience, and disarmed me somewhat with her candour and focus on the constituency she is standing in.
Nuala has a formidable background. She has a solid academic background in Universities in Glasgow and QUB specializing in educational development, she has worked in Gerry Adams office for Sinn Fein and has held a number of impressive posts on various voluntary bodies.
I was particularly interested in meeting Nuala because of my own interest in marginal constituencies and the demographic changes occurring rapidly in Belfast.
Our meeting in the Sinn Fein Office on the Falls rd was strangely informal. Perhaps I expected a minder or an observer. Perhaps that’s me.
We kicked off with a look at the figures. I know mine and she knew hers.
I asked her about the two key aspects of her constituency, maximizing her vote and growing it.
She was very clear that the strategy within the party was to canvass areas that had never been canvassed before. The response was surprising according to Nuala. She had expected some hostility but experienced engagement. When pressed, she insisted this included what would have been previously perceived as exclusively Unionist areas.
I moved the conversation on, as you do, to the “bread and butter” issues.
Nuala has an admirable list of local issues which she is prioritizing for her campaign including transport, infrastructure, local access issues, housing development and local employment opportunities.
All well and good but what are her chances?In Fahas analysis over on my own site the combined nationalist vote in Castlereagh South should be in excess of 40%. I asked how she anticipated maximizing that vote and growing it.She emphasised the importance of being accessible and engaging with all parts of the community. I then touched on the currently politically topical aspect of ethnic minorities.
This part of Ireland has a long history of immigrant minorities. The Celts, the Normans, the Hugenouts, the Scots planters, the Anglo aristocracy for example.I asked if, given the recent racially motivated incidents in Belfast, Sinn Fein was getting any feedback from these communities. Nuala was interestingly reluctant to comment. Her concern was that by making a comment she may put at risk people in mixed or predominantly loyalist areas. When pressed on the issue she responded that “On the South Belfast DPCSP I have actually ensured Hate Crime is a priority issue and been key to developing a strategy to tackle hate crime.”
The question as to whether Sinn Fein will make a breakthrough in Castlereagh will, of course, be answered on May 22nd.
fitzjameshorse said:
There are actually two Sinn Feins and you met one of them.
SF balances tickets and not just in terms of gender and age. There is a lot of guys…ex-prisoners….who are both in generational terms and strategic terms being phased out for people with politics degrees.
It has to be said that the Felons wing of SF are on message with the strategy (they know it has to happen). But whether it appeals to the SF voters…who might well see the new generation as careerist…Im not so sure.
The glue that holds the two wings together is Gerry Adams, Gerry Kelly and Martin McGuinness. As they fade into bacckground, its hard to see how SF can be two very different things.
I think the most interesting thing in last few weeks has been THAT mural as the rallying point for protesting the Adams release.
Nobody seems to have thought that thru. The Insensitivity. And left to the Great Leader himself to modestly ask for it to be removed and defer to a mural about Ballymurphy. Oh the Irony. (The side deals and OTR letters means those relatives will never get justice).
But look at the people protrsting. The Old Guard.
And our sophisticated “new Belfast” mayor dutifully turns up to support his Party Leader. I dont suppose his Poet Laureate was there or any of the ten chaplains….or any of the restaurant owners from Lisburn Road, or his academic tweeters or a photographer from the Ulster Tatler.
I dunno if the South Castlereagh candidate was out protesting for Gerry. But that is a harder message to sell on the doorstep than any “soft” SF message of outreach.
Sooner or later the contradictions in SF will be manifest.
I know youre interested in the marginalised nationalist costituencies but I think you only got one wing of SF. You really need to see the canvassers in Derry or West Belfast, Strabane or Ardoyne.
A very different thing.
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hoboroad said:
I see a lot of Media pundits are predicting Jim Allister could snatch a seat in Europe with Nicholson losing out. I don’t know where they are getting their information from to be honest.
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carrickally said:
I can’t see it myself.
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antain said:
Nor I. Dodds is bound to do better than last time (it wouldn’t be hard) and Jim has company now to the right of the DUP. Ending the association with the Tories is no disadvantage to Nicholson. I’d say Jim will be further away than last time but he had to stand for the sake of TUV’s local election candidates.
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Downshire said:
Castlereagh South is an interesting one:
SDLP 2, Alliance 2, DUP 1 for sure. Last two between DUP 2 and 3, UUP and SF.
Probably SF and UUP. DUP have split with 3 unknowns. NI21 will eat into Alliance a bit but it will return after they are likely eliminated.
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Martin Lemon said:
The nationalist vote likely greater than 40%? Crazy stuff. Getting over 30% would be a result. No hope of 3 Nat seats.
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Charlie said:
Martin,
What makes you so sure? The existing Castlereagh West has about 23% nationalist vote and 27 % Alliance while the existing castlereagh south has about 30% nationalist vote and 20% Alliance. In south the SDLP were of the order of 5 or 10 votes from electing a second. Had that gone for them it would have been three seats over the two areas. Plus, the new boundaries move just about every majority unionist ward from these two areas: Moneyreagh (South), Minnowburn and Hillfoot (West). The only majority unionist ward remaining is Beechill and even then the most unionist part at the north end also moves to Belfast leaving a more or less 50/50 area behind. All the remaining Castlereagh wards have small catholic pluralities. I think 3 nationalist seats are probably about right. I’m surprised to see two Alliance predicted though. Having said that with around 29% Alliance / PBP vote in west and 22% Alliance / Green in South that does probably average out at ~25/26% and therefore 2 full quotas, before surpluses come in to play. It depends on which wards those votes originated from I guess.
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Downshire said:
Charlie is right. Nationalist share of the vote here would go up automatically just off boundary adjustments. This is also the first time SF have put such a concentrated effort into Carryduff/Four Winds.
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bangordub said:
Decent aul row over on Slugger regarding this article 😉 http://sluggerotoole.com/2014/05/20/castlereagh-south-sinn-fein-and-the-new-girl-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-1470244
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Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
SO’T is dominated by Irish Nationalist/Republicans?! Yeah right… 😀
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bangordub said:
Hilarious isn’t it? Except of course it really isn’t
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Enda said:
NI21 have redesignated from Unionist to Other.
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oakleaf said:
For how long? Now this makes them exactly like Alliance chancers.
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Enda said:
Sounds like they were getting told where to go when canvassing in Catholic areas. They will now have to be lumped in with Alliance & Greens. I still expect there votes to come from Alliance & UUP so they could knock a couple of percentage points off the overall Unionist vote.
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Faha said:
Many of the NI21 candidates will be eliminated early so it will be possible to determine where their voters transfer to. I suspect that most of their transfers will go to UUP, Alliance and Green but it will be interesting to see how many transfer to SDLP or even SF.
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Enda said:
This development brings non Unionist MLAs to 54. Exactly 50%.
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Enda said:
For the first time in ever unionists don’t have an overall majority in Stormont!
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boondock said:
When did they redesignate any link?
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sammymcnally said:
Is there any real significance to re-designation? As long as the Unionist block is above a certain level (40%) it doesn’t matter does it?
Alliance (a middle of the road party) and NI21 (a named after a road party) are supporters of the constitutional status quo and are therefore ‘Unionist’ irrespective of designation.
Having said that, they both deserve praise for taking a principled position – hopefully they will both do well at the elections.
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PaulG said:
I preferred them as a reasonable Unionist party that Nationalists could work with, if it could attract enough Protestant unionist voters. They could have been the key to finding a final solution.
Now it appears that they are to redesignate to attract Castle Catholics and Letgetalongerists. Alliance mark 2, which will only result in second wave of the palest green of the SDLP support deserting to the side of unionist status quo.
The SDLP vote will continue to decrease if NI21 grows and overall Nationalist strength will reduce , never to overtake unionists, never to get a better deal.
They are now acting as Unionisms Trojan Horse.
Consequently I have returned to my initial position, that NI21 must be strangled at birth and Nationalists should not give them any transfers at all.
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sammymcnally said:
re. ” Alliance mark 2, which will only result in second wave of the palest green of the SDLP support deserting to the side of unionist status quo.”
They hold the seat in East Belfast – hardly any shade of green .there?
In my eyes Alliance must be getting it right when they are accused of the same thing by both ‘sides’. The idea that when people are reasonable and want to park the constitutional question is somehow objectionable – is a strange one.
..although I don’t agree with Alliance or NI21 views. Lets have less lets-not-get-alongerism – whilst retaining our own firmly held views.
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PaulG said:
I would argue that parking the Constitutional question is only reasonable if there is no short or mid term prospect of changing it. At the point when the PULs have lost their majority and CNR’s are on the brink of edging ahead demographically and politically, this is emphatically NOT a reasonable time to park the bus on change.
Alliance have their role and can even be useful on occasion, but there’s no requirement for another Alliance party and especially not one that spurns the opportunity to pull mainstream Unionism towards the centre, instead opting for the easy target of replacing Alliance.
As for ‘lets-not-get-alongerism’, it’s never recommended, but when the neighbours DUP Gorilla’s keep raining shit down from their perch above, then somethings gotta give.
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oakleaf said:
Ni21 are finished.
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sammymcnally said:
re. “but there’s no requirement for another Alliance party and especially not one that spurns the opportunity to pull mainstream Unionism towards the centre, instead opting for the easy target of replacing Alliance.”
I’m not sure what space there is beside and very similar to Alliance and I suppose the chances of seeing how much will be reduced by the fallout of the ongoing ‘dysfunctional’ saga.
I think Nats have to do a bit better – if we have any chance of success – than not welcoming all and every Unionist move towards ‘change’. NI21 (the party named after a road and apparently on the road to nowhere) will hopefully survive the current difficulties and attract Unionists who – for what ever reason – don’t want to vote for Alliance.
Basil and his party seems to me to be the sort of politicians that should be welcomed irrespective of their constitutional allegiance.
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