And so to Fahas final council analysis. At the end of this post is a summary prediction for the whole of the new Belfast council. I am considering another prediction contest perhaps based upon party percentage performance across all of the new areas prior to the actual poll on May 22. (BD)
This final analysis of Belfast will cover the East Belfast DEA’s of Titanic, Ormiston and Lisnasharragh. These areas have the greatest change in demographic makeup in Belfast, even more so than South Belfast. The following shows the demographics of the wards in the 2011 census in certain age cohorts and the change in the Catholic and Protestant population between the 2001 census and the 2011 census.
What is clear is that there has been a large increase in the Catholic population of all East Belfast wards, especially in Ravenhill, Woodstock, The Mount, Orangefield, Bloomfield and Island (now renamed Connswater). The decline in the Protestant population has been even greater than the increase in the Catholic population, exceeding 20% in some wards. The decline in the Protestant population is greater than the increase in the Catholic population because those with Other religions and None have also increased. Most of the Other and some of the None are ethnic nationals that have settled in East Belfast. The age profile of the wards is consistent with what occurs with “white flight” which has been studied extensively in the USA. Minority groups (native Catholics and foreign immigrants), who are generally young families, move into a majority group area (native Protestants). They usually replace elderly members of the majority group who slowly die off as well as younger members of the majority group who emigrate to the suburbs. You will notice that there are very few Catholics in the over 60 and over 70 age groups. The percentage of Catholics relative to Protestants is much higher in the younger age groups. It is usually in the 25 to 39 age cohort but in middle class areas it may extend to the 49 age cohort. The 0 to4 and 0 to 14 age cohorts have a similar composition to the 25 to 39 age cohort (their parents). In some wards this is seen in all age cohorts among school children and in other wards in mainly shows up in the youngest (0-4) age groups. In the Castlereagh area the wards of Wynchurch, Hillfoot, Cregagh, Downshire and Gilnahirk show similar trends though it is minimal in the wards of Lisnasharragh, Tullycarnet, Upper and Lower Braniel. In another 20 years, East Belfast will have the same demographic makeup that South Belfast had 10 years ago.
The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.
All the wards of Castlereagh Central are within the new Belfast Council but only 2 wards from Castlereagh East were transferred to Belfast. The results show:
#1 Turnout declined only slightly between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 Unionist turnout is in the 50% range, except in Pottinger where it is much lower.
#3 Nationalist turnout is low in all DEA’s, except Castlereagh Central.
The change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:
The new DEA’s have changed. Titanic (formerly Pottinger) lost the Ravenhill and Orangefield wards and gained the Sydenham and Connswater (formerly Island) wards. Ormiston (formerly Victoria) lost Sydenham and Island and gained the Castlereagh wards of Gilnahirk, Tullycarnet, Upper Braniel and part of Lower Braniel. The Lisnasharragh DEA bears no resemblance to any current DEA. It includes the Rosetta ward, the Ravenhill and Orangefield wards, most of Castlereagh Central and the Hillfoot ward from Castlereagh West.
The average ward for Belfast is 3535. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.
Titanic 21338 (3556)
Ormiston 24843 (3549)
Lisnasharragh 20118 (3353)
The demographics and predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.
These are the most likely results, based on the 2011 turnout. Ormiston is the least likely to show any change. In 2014, the Catholic electorate is probably 12%, with another 3% from the Other/None group that could potentially vote for a nationalist candidate. Even though the quota is only 12.5%, a potential electorate of 15% is not enough to elect a nationalist candidate because the nationalist turnout is so low and some of that 15% will vote Alliance. In another 10 years, the situation will be different since the nationalist electorate will have increased to over 20%, which will be enough to elect a SDLP councilor.
In Titanic, because of demographic change, the Catholic electorate is probably 23% in 2014. With another possible 3% to 4% from the Other/None group it would be at least 26%. Since a quota is only 14.3% there should be a nationalist councilor here. The estimated quota will be 1500. The potential nationalist electorate in 2014 is over 7000. There are several reasons it would not occur based on the 2011 vote.
#1 SF only concentrates on their base in Short Strand, even though 2/3 of the nationalist electorate resides outside that area.
#2 SF receive few transfers from other parties, even the SDLP.
#3 The SDLP devotes little effort to this DEA, even though there is a large potential nationalist electorate.
#4 There is 3300 ethnic non nationals old enough to vote in Titanic. Approximately 1800 were on the December 2013 electoral register. 2/3 are from the EU (mainly Polish). There have been several recent high profile attacks on foreign nationals in this area that appear to have originated from the loyalist community .The Alliance Party, SF and the SDLP have been publicly supportive in condemning these attacks while the PUP, TUV and DUP have been silent. It is not clear if much effort has been made by the SDLP and SF in voter registration and canvassing these potential voters. Ignoring these 3300 potential voters would be a major strategic failure on the part of the SDLP and SF.
#5 Nationalist turnout was only 36% in 2011. It was over 50% in Short Strand so probably less than 30% outside of that area. The nationalist parties generally ignore the 2/3 of the nationalist electorate outside of Short Strand and need to make this a high priority. In 10 years, if the nationalist parties decide to seriously contest this DEA, there would be seats for both SF and the SDLP. At that point, the nationalist electorate will be approximately 34%.
The Lisnasharragh DEA is difficult to project because it is a conglomeration of wards from 4 existing DEA’s. You will notice that there are significant ward average discrepancies between the DEA’s. The average electorate for Lisnasharragh is only 3353, which is 1100 voters short of the average for Belfast. This is another example of the brilliance of the unionist parties and the incompetence of the nationalist parties when it comes to these matters. At no point in the process in which the new wards and new DEA’s were devised did the nationalist parties introduce legislation or insist that the new wards and DEA’s have equal numbers of voters. If Lisnasharragh had an additional 1100 voters (which would have come from Botanic, which has 1500 voters too many and of which these additional voters would have been 2/3 nationalist), then the nationalist electorate would have been 3% higher. Whether an additional 20% of a quota would be enough to elect a SF councilor will not be known until after the election. In 2014, due to demographic growth, the Catholic electorate will be 31%, with an additional potential nationalist vote of 3% from the Other/None group for a total electorate of 34%. 2 quotas would be 28.6%. Since the SDLP is strong in this area, the SDLP vote should far exceed the quota of 14.3%. A very good turnout could see a total nationalist vote of 30%, with the remainder of the nationalist voters voting Alliance or Green. Since the SDLP and Alliance will each elect one, the final seat will probably come down to SF or Alliance. My estimate of the 2014 vote, based on 2010 Westminster tallies, is
SF 0% SDLP 23.76% Alliance 23.31% Green 3.09% UUP 16.19% DUP 33.65%
The UUP is slightly above 1 quota and the DUP are above 2 quotas. Clearly there will be 3 non unionist seats. There will definitely be 1 Alliance and 1 SDLP seat. The big unknown is how much of the SDLP vote in 2010 who voted SDLP originated from SF voters who did not have a candidate to vote for. How many SF voters stayed home who would have otherwise voted? Also, the nationalist turnout in the wards that are part of the East Belfast constituency would have had a very low nationalist turnout in both the 2010 Westminster and 2011 council elections. The East Belfast wards contain 16% of the nationalist electorate so will they vote in much higher numbers in 2014? SF has the potential for a seat here if they are willing to put in the effort to increase nationalist turnout and target SDLP transfers.
For all the Belfast DEA’s the party makeup based on the 2011 election would be:
SF 19 SDLP 7 Eirigi 1 Alliance 9 UUP 5 DUP 17 PUP 2
I believe the most likely result in 2014 would be the following:
SF 20 SDLP 8 Eirigi 1 Alliance 8 UUP 4 DUP 17 PUP 2
The demographic changes in Castle since 2011 will probably result in a SDLP gain and UUP loss. If SF and the SDLP seriously contest Titanic then SF will win a seat at the expense of the 2nd Alliance seat. There would be 29 nationalist councilors and 23 unionist councilors with 8 Alliance so it does not appear that there would be a nationalist majority in the 2014 election. There are possible additional SF seats in Oldpark and Lisnasharragh as well as possible SDLP seats in Court, Balmoral and Botanic but this would require a higher nationalist turnout, as much as 600 additional nationalist voters per DEA, for this to occur. The maximum number of nationalist councilors could be as high as 34 but the unionist candidates in those 5 DEA’s have the advantage based on the 2011 turnout.
boondock said:
34 would certainly shake things up a bit. I presume although it is very unlikely this time 34 would be a real possibility next time round
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oakleaf said:
A pretty damning indictment of both Sinn Fein and the SDLP and their total disorganisation in East Belfast. I’ve been saying for years on various forums before the census figures came out of the massive growth in the Catholic population and how they have been ignored by various parties.
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Paddy said:
Why would the percentage catholic population in the 0-14 cohort be smaller than that of their parents?Does this not fly in the face of the white flight argument and usual demographic trend?
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boondock said:
I think the simple answer is there are more and more children of mixed marriage who probably are classed as other/none
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Paddy said:
Possibly yes. It would be interesting to see the comparable figures for other and none as well.
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boondock said:
Sorry one other point a number of the Catholics moving in from say West and South Belfast and Northern Ireland in general and also from Eastern Europe to East Belfast are probably young adults who have probably yet to start families
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Faha said:
Some of the parents are also in the 40 to 54 age cohort and the Catholic percentage is lower in that age cohort compared to the 25 to 39 age cohort..
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Enda said:
Only 5 seats predicted in Lisnasharragh. Its a six seater.
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Faha said:
There was a transcription error. Lisnasharragh should actually be:
SF 0
SDLP 1
Alliance 2
UUP 1
DUP 2
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bangordub said:
Hands up, Error was mine
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sammymcnally said:
Faha,
Excellent analysis – and putting on my tricolour hat for a moment – 29 would do very nicely.
Am I correct in saying that there is no constituency breakdown provided for the Euro elections – and if so – is that something that a freedom of information request could challenge?
What is your prediction for the %turnout of Nats v Unionists in these elections – in
approximate terms – presumably we would expect Nat turnout to be a bit ahead overall?
BD, (or anyone else)
I know you have enough to be doing BUT….
any possibility of an agenda for the elections i.e. first results times for euro and councils etc?
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Faha said:
The Euro election results will not be available by constituency, only at the Northern Ireland level. The district council results, which will available before the Euro results, should provide an accurate indicator of the Euro results. The only major difficulty with the council results is that several parties (Alliance, Green, TUV, NI21) do not compete in many DEA’s, especially west of the Bann. SF and the SDLP are not competing in 12+ DEA’s. The council and Euro results should be released at the ward level. This has been requested by the SDLP, Alliance and others in the past but the Electoral Office is unwilling to do so. Legislation at Westminster could easily change this but no political party has been willing to pursue this issue. It would make election planning easier for all parties since they could compare actual election results with the census demographics and target underperforming wards.
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sammymcnally said:
Faha,
I appreciate this is a somewhat off-piste question BUT
re. “This has been requested by the SDLP, Alliance and others in the past but the Electoral Office is unwilling to do so. ”
I have not got a clear view of when a freedom of information application has to be met and when it can be sidestepped? Clearly if there is legal reason for not disclosing information then fair enough – but in the case here – a public body has surely just made a decision not to do something – and on that basis perhaps would that not leave it open to a freedom of information request?
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Faha said:
Perhaps someone could request the election data under freedom of information. If it is denied then at least there would be some public debate over the availability of election results at the ward level. Westminster would be the way to go since there is no reason these results should not be available for local elections such as council and Assembly. I could see where it could be a problem to have the results available for Euro and Westminster elections only in Northern Ireland and not in the remainder of the UK.
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Charlie said:
Sammy,
There are no constituency breakdowns, but what usually happens at these euro counts is that the party workers will pick a box and crowd around it (much to the annoyance of the counters who don’t relish having an audience) and do private tallies. The only problem with this is you then have to believe the party when they say there vote is up in N. Belfast, Lagan Valley etc… If the party’s vote is down they may not shout about it.
You may see tallies posted on slugger or twitter so just look out for them. Otherwise the parties may not share it if they believe that they have a piece of information that gives them an advantage over the others in later elections.
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sammymcnally said:
Charlie,
Are you saying that the information is not actually recorded at constituency level?
That may be a European wide thing – not sure about the south?
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Charlie said:
Unless it has changed since last time, I believe they don’t post it up by constituency. They could if they wanted to I think but don’t. I’m sure the ballot boxes are still tied to certain wards but maybe chucked out together on the one table for the one count. I’m honestly not sure though. It would be good to check this actually: are counts performed at local count centres or all at the King’s Hall? I imagine they are altogether and that is probably the reason why announcements for euro elections results are a couple of days later and not the same day or next day.
I remember some Ulster Unionist supporters arguing with some DUP people in 2010 on Facebook that their euro-tallies showed they were the lead unionist party in South Belfast and the DUP supporter rubbishing it.
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CountEricBistovonGranules said:
The map on CAIN of catholic percentages by electoral ward, dated 2001, should be updated. The new map side by side would show a very striking visualisation of the greening process. Anyone with the data and time on their hands care to oblige??
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boondock said:
That would be great if someone could do it. I remember the late horseman always mentioned that the map was a little artificial because some areas may be slightly more catholic than Protestant yet still were a pale shade of orange as the key was orange if the catholic population was under 50% it never factored in the actual Protestant %
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Charlie said:
Boondock,
if you check out the ” Politics in Northern Ireland” wiki page (link below) someone has added a new map for the 2011 census. The advantage it has is that when you zoom in, it is actually by output area and not just ward so is more detailed. It also deals with relative numbers between the communities so one of the many Castlereagh wards with a 47-43 catholic plurality will show up as light green (light blue in this case)
The downside is that it uses 6 large bands rather than 10 smaller bands to map the population so there are large swathes of dark red or dark blue which may not tell us much about the population there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Northern_Ireland
There used to be an NUI map of the census by output area that was really useful but the link appears to be broken. If the link below works for you then great:
http://airomaps.nuim.ie/flexviewer/?config=NICensus2011.xml
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boondock said:
Cheers for the links Charlie. I remember that NUI map and although very detailed I seem to remeber the key and colours used were not too user friendly. The map on wikipedia is very good and when I try and compare it to the cain map apart from getting a bit of a headache there doesnt seem to be too many major changes apart from South Belfast and oddly enough part of Fermangh changing from Green to Red
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Robert said:
I’m rather puzzled by the age cohort table in this article – everyone is categorised as either Protestant or Catholic?
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oakleaf said:
What is the attraction for Polish people to living in East Belfast? Are they working in the harbour?
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carrickally said:
Did you not know, oakleaf, that East Belfast is wonderful? This is where all the wise men are from and the home of the cock n’ hens. It’s bound to attract people willing and able to live within the glow of the Oval. Not too many other places will have played such a part in developing a young Ghanaian into a World Cup player, either.
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zig70 said:
Lower rents.
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boondock said:
sorry meant to put this link up earlier
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Enda said:
http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2014/05/belfast-council-election-preview.html?m=1
I put together a couple of tables to summerise predictions (hope you dont mind Faha). I just put the totals where I couldn’t get the breakdown to agree or where it wasn’t given.
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oakleaf said:
Personally don’t think there is much point in canvassing immigrants for votes. The SDLP had several in the last election and they bombed. Dare we say that nationalist/republicans weren’t too keen on voting for immigrant candidates and immigrants had no interest in voting?
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carrickally said:
I think you’re being very honest, oakleaf. Locals don’t generally vote for low profile immigrants (Anna Lo is high profile and an exception) and it’ll be interesting to see in my own area how the Alliance candidate with the Spanish name does – I’ve never been an Alliance voter so wouldn’t put a preference down anyway.
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oakleaf said:
There is a Polish woman standing for Sinn Fein in Fermanagh but it’s different as well. She married into a well known local republican family, has lived in the area for 15 years and works in the local school.
There is also the fact that immigrants from different countries are treated as a single block whereas in many cases they hate each other. Just because a Pole is standing doesn’t mean somebody from Lithuania or Latvia will vote for them.
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Robert said:
The DUP will struggle to “hold” 3 seats in Ormiston – they did well in Victoria last time out, but they’re losing good areas and only really gaining real strength in Braniel. Alliance should do really well, but this is one area where they may be hit by NI21 – there are lots of “soft Unionist” votes for Ford’s lot here.
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sammymcnally said:
As someone mentioned over on Enda’s Endgame site regarding what happens if it 30-30 the appointment of a mayor/chairperson would presumably become pretty contentious – and how would they decide on issues of orange and green – presuming Alliance is on the Orange side of the fence.
Strange they didn’t go for an odd number.
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Ulster-Celt said:
They use the d’hondt system in Belfast.
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sammymcnally said:
Ulster-Celt,
Does that mean that 30-30 is effectively a Nat majority?
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oakleaf said:
In my humble opinion that would be the case when there is a nationalist mayor as they would have the casting vote.
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sammymcnally said:
Just to clarify re. Mayor – are we saying that SF would get the choice of Mayor because they have the most seats? Or are we saying it is only because there is currently a SF Mayor then if this election is a 30-30 ‘draw’ then Nats will have a majority?
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Ulster-Celt said:
Belfast’s next mayor is from the SDLP.the results of this election will be used to determine the order for the next term 2015 onwards.the top jobs will be decided based on individual party strength D’hondt was introduced to to ensure the top jobs were shared.majorities mean nothing in relation to the allocation of jobs but would be important when the council vote.so if it is 30/30 nationalist majority in voting exits due to the mayor having a casting vote.of course this will not be the case when the DUP get their turn.
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sammymcnally said:
Ulster-Celt – ta for that clarification.
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