The 3rd Annual Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report has been released by Dr Paul Nolan. It may be viewed in its entirety Here.
Demographic trends point to seismic shifts in Northern Ireland / NI Peace Monitoring Report 2014
Of particular interest to this blog are the findings and observations on the demographic changes happening at an ever increasing pace across the North. Of course, regular readers of this blog will hardly be surprised by the findings. I was interested to note that there is no longer any debate about what change is occurring or the speed at which it is happening. The bloggerati, academics, mainstream media and, yes, even the “letsgetalongerists” (copyright FJH 😉 ) are now debating the effects of the changes and the opinions of the population. Opinions that may become apparent in a meaningful way at the upcoming May elections.
Some interesting examples are Here and Here.
A subject we have visited before is noted, the changing demographic profile of various wards in Belfast:
Belfast is experiencing dramatic population shifts / NI Peace Monitoring Report 2014
The most dramatic changes at ward level in Belfast the North are noted are as follows:
As Alan in Belfast notes over on Slugger “Unionism might want to wake up to reality of NI’s changing demographic and adjust their age-old strategy of scaremongering and find a more positive way to engage in political negotiation.”
The report in itself collates information from a number of sources including some that we have mined here. It presents it’s findings in a clear readable style and I would recommend a full read to all as linked above. In essence it charts the rapidly changing economic, political, demographic and educational face of this part of the world. As we all know, change is inevitable, it is how we react to and manage those changes that determines what we will become in coming days.
"We in coming days may be" 
Back to basics, a la Horseman. Love it. More of same. Now its the battle for hearts and minds. Nothing can be taken for granted.
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Thanks MPG,
It is particularly noticable that at every age below 42 Catholics are now in a clear majority and, of course, this includes the main child bearing cohorts. The process is only going one way. The choices for Unionists are stark. In fact there are only two. Convince Catholics to become Unionists- not likely given their track record at “outreach”, or negotiate.
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Where is the Parklake ward? Is that not in Craigavon?
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Spot on Oakleaf.
Lurgan to be exact. Figs are:
Ward County All Household Reference Persons (HRPs) Religion or religion brought up in of HRP: Catholic Religion or religion brought up in of HRP: Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian Related) Religion or religion brought up in of HRP: Other religions Religion or religion brought up in of HRP: None
Parklake 1662 793 800 10 59
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LetsGetAlongerism is little more than an attempt to prolong the existence of Norn Iron by sibverting the demographics.
Theres always been genuinely decent unionists…and ecumenists.
But the whole “middle ground” is about prolonging unionism by attempting to make it attractive.
is it just a matter of the shoe being on the other foot?
Well Id like to give a sophisticated argument to say its not….but I couldnt be arsed appeasing unionists.
Best I can say is that when they ran Norn Iron….the shoe was a jackboot.
When nationalists are wearing the shoe…it will be a hush puppy.
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Hush-puppy Provos – Eoghan Harris was always on about them!
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The emphasis is now that Nationalists should be “generous” in how they respond to their new found demographic majority. I am a republican. I regard us all as equal citizens. I couldn’t give a tinkers curse what religion anyone is. As for Eoghan Harris, don’t start me. It would be nice to see Unionists acknowledge their part in times past though
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Three of those ‘top ten’ wards are not actually in Belfast. Church and Parklake are both in Lurgan while Coolhill is in Dungannon.
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The big change in Coolhill is down to migrants. Dungannon town is going through a massive demographic change. 50% of births in the town are to migrant parents.
St Patrick’s P’S in the town is majority newcomer pupils. The state primary is not too far behind. Only the integrated ps is overwhelming local. Ironic or what.
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Thanks FF,
Noted and amended above
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Interesting to see on the report how low the crime rate is in Northern Ireland compared to the rest of the UK. It’s pity Northern Ireland gets such bad press across the pond.
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The break up of the UK is inevitable. Even if Scotland doesnt vote yes this time, there will be a rerun when the English middle classes pull out of the EU. Once that happens, English tax payers will look to cut the 10 billion subvention very quickly. 100,000 nurses in the home counties will have more benefits than giving it to a bunch of ungrateful Paddies.
The question is will unionists be happy to increasingly live within nationalist dominated councils in turn dominated by Sinn Fein or look to cut a deal with a relative position of strength with Dublin.
They will rail but expect the results of the 2021 census to be leaked, with London saying ‘Pay for yourselves and live with Sinn Fein’ or cut a subvention supported deal with Dublin
Northern Ireland will not exist in 2022
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I wouldn’t be so sure. What makes you so sure Dublin would want or could take us? The cuts in the public sector in the North would devastating and people protestant or catholic are not going to vote to cut there own neck. We are not the same as Scotland as we cant pay our own way and keep the same level of public spending, huge public spending cuts would be a really hard sale to voters.
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Dublin wouldnt be so keen on taking a reluctant unionist rump in, but at the request of unionists with an agreed way forward and the support (esp monetary for a limited period) of London no politician in the south wouldnt jump at ‘unificiation’ of the national territory.
I imagine the sidelining of Sinn Fein in both present juristictions would be high on the list of priorities for both unionists and the southern establishment.
An east coast population of 3 million, national population of 6.5 million, bridges or tunnels to Scotland and or Wales, EU support and business friendly taxation policy will help bring the sides together to move forward.
It wouldnt surprise me if we discovered in 30 years time some practical discussions between London and Dublin with tacit unionist knowledge had already started taking place. Kite flyers at interparliamentary sessions with interested parties.
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I listen an unhealthily amount to 5Live and GB is viciously fractured. At the most basic level, London and the home counties are a nation apart.
As for Scotland, they managed to explode the Mail/Express/ Tax Payers Alliance nonsense that they run at a deficit. They seem to have cooled of a bit but the TPA were giving off about the money NI receives in the subvention.
What is a United Ireland? Well, that conversation hasn’t even been discussed but its clear that no one points out how much Mexicans get in benefits compared to the UK or the tax rates. It is also under reported how they can react to economic demands, such as the reduction of VAT for the catering industry etc. As things stand, Stormont can’t even manage a reduction in business tax, its only boast being water rates, which we have always paid via rates.
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I dont imagine the NHS will exist in its current format in 8 years time or that the subvention will be anywhere near 10 billion. We are small potatoes, the EU will look upon it as a project to support and in the overall scheme of things wont cost that much for a good news story. England will look on it as a little bit now to save a lot later
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Let us face facts here, the NHS in its present form is unsustainable, the south is also changing its funding of health provision, the two systems will start to come together. The civil service in the north is unfit for purpose as it is too large and will need to be trimmed irrespective of the political fallout, the move to Swansea from Coleraine was an obvious move. Expect more of the same. Another variable to be considered is the developing green Ulster phenomenon. The north is greening, there is a train of thought amongst some northern nats that they should actually actively consider not to push for unification, but do engage on a Kulturkampf making the unionists the agents for unification.
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There was a Spitting Image sketch after their last victory where a bemused Tory cabinet wonder what they have to do to the public to stop them getting voted back in.
In similar fashion, I wonder how much longer will unionists support the unionist parties? I’m not talking about them voting for ‘the other side’ but simply not voting at all. This generation didn’t grow up staring across the Lagan valley at the others on the opposite hill but drink, dance and screw together in the city centre, as so few of my generation did.
We’ve been here before, as FJH will recall and there was an emerging cohesion (all be it slow) between the working classes in Belfast (Bel-fast, to those from Tyrone). Oddly, this would e a good thing, if it re-emerged, for the cause of the union but as the did before, unionism will have no part of it and uses its storm troopers, the PUP & UPRG, to foil any such movement eg. the attack on the Skainos centre and Liofa.
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BD,
The figures are welcome news – but there is a tendency in an increasingly secularising society to re-designate as ‘other’ – this is stronger amongst ‘Protestants’ (I think) – so the figures have to be taken with a degree of qualification.
… and I think there is the usual tendency (on this site) towards over-optimism as to when perfidious albion may lift her skirts and feck off home.
We have to accept that the relative strengths of the UK versus Irish economies as an important factor in whether Northern ‘Nats’ or indeed Southern ‘Nats’ believe that repatriation of Green Field Number 4 is affordable or desirable from an economic point of view.
If we (Nats) expect Unionists to face up to the realities of demographics then we must also face up to the potential economic difficulties of a UI – and SF as the only party who have tried to get this debate going have been embarrassingly poor when challenged on these potential difficulties.
…having said all that ‘good’ (Nat) results in the Council elections in Belfast and I may even allow myself to (temporarily at least) re-designate as an optimist.
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Lol Sammy,
You are by your own admission, a terminal pessimist. Do I really have to go over the almost daily good economic new from south of the border?
Meanwhile the Public sector gravy train up here is beginning to seriously wake some people up at last, see coleraine DVLA for an example.
I’m afraid I am an eternal optomist. I see no reason to be other
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“The figures are welcome news – but there is a tendency in an increasingly secularising society to re-designate as ‘other’ – this is stronger amongst ‘Protestants’ (I think) – so the figures have to be taken with a degree of qualification.”
You almost sound like a unionist clutching at straws there, Sammy.
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…yes it can be easily misunderstood (by some) – but best to be seen as not counting your Nationalist chickens etc
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I don’t believe the census counted chickens, Sammy.
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A quick look at the census shows that as the age of respondents increases, so too does their affiliation
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What’s with Mallie constantly tweeting that nationalists should be merciful with unionist?
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Yeah that’s just an excuse to keeping the status quo. Wasn’t that long ago that he was crying about St Brigids in South Belfast not having poppies to celebrate the great slaughter (ww1).
I stopped following him ages ago. A complete gobshite.
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I’ve asked his what unionism has done to deserve mercy. After several prompts, nadda reply.
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Interesting that politics/nationality are still being compared to religion. I’ll point you towards the data output from NISRA regarding national identity and religion;
On Census Day 27th March 2011, in Northern Ireland, considering the resident population: 1.72% were from an ethnic minority population and the remaining 98.28% were white (including Irish Traveller);
45.14% belong to or were brought up in the Catholic religion and 48.36% belong to or were brought up in a ‘Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related)’ religion;
and 48.41% indicated that they had a British national identity, 28.35% had an Irish national identity and 29.44% had a Northern Irish national identity*. *Respondents could indicate more than one national identity
We’ve already had the discussions about the NI national identity as either a stepping stone or an accomodation but there’s still a heck of a way to go to turn that religious advantage of the future into a Nationalist one. FF better start breeding green chickens, Dave Dange maybe should push that united Ireland rhetoric back another six years (2016, 2022, 2028…) and BD needs to account for the Catholics that already appear to be unionists.
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carrickally,
at the risk of being accused by my ‘pal’ FF of being Unionist-like, I go along with you quite a bit – with the following qualification – there are a bunch of ‘Catholics’ who are probably not going to vote for Unionist parties – but may not vote for a UI at present – until economic stability is assured in the South.
Quite how many there are of these demi-quasi-Nats – in FJH speak lets-stay-where-we-are-constitutionally-for-the-moment-at-least-ists, we simply don’t know but to dismiss them as a factor (which BD will do shortly) is being a bit over optimistic in my book.
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– but may not vote for a UI at present –
When was this referendum called? And who here is claiming a united Ireland is imminent?
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Sammy, I deliberately used a small u to describe the people we’re all talking about. I feel for FF, he may suggest the u is for unicorn, perhaps? Those maybe all meet up at the garden centre on polling days and are called Tom!
Interestingly, the figures for Carrickfergus put the RC population at around 7% but the Irish ethnicity at 4%, roughly equating at the same level as the NI average of RC 45%, Irish 29%.
BTW, FF and BD, who’s the mentalist at Slugger? I rarely go on it to look, never comment though.
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Ally,
You just keep marching round in circles with your loyal brethern. You make more converts to the cause of national reunification every year.
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FF,
re. “You just keep marching round in circles with your loyal brethern. You make more converts to the cause of national reunification every year.”
Intolerance of opposing views is hardly going to win many people over to a UI.
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Sammy .
In a Re-united Ireland, Unionists will get pretty much what they want – Nationalists are not interested in lording it over Unionists, that’s an Orangey/Colonial thingy which belongs in the dustbin of history. Feck it – we could have 3 National days – Patrick’s Day on 17 March, Orange Day on 12 July and then Independence Day as well at some agreed date.
It’s all good.
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Munsterman,
I would largely agree with that. Except in one important regard – I look on a UI as an IF not a WHEN – tolerance/generosity needs to be shown in advance of a UI not just promised for when ‘victory’ is achieved.
History does not march in a linear direction. My problem with the ‘optimists’ (on this site and elsewhere) is they don’t seem to realise this.
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Ah, the let’s allow ourselves to be bullied by Orangemen school of thought.
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I look on a United Ireland as a WHEN not an IF but I ain’t got a crystal ball. I suspect it will happen in my lifetime (I’m 37) and would be prepared to place a considerable bet on it happening in my children’s lifetime (they are all under 7). It could happen in five years, it could happen in fifty. None of us has a clue.
The issue as I see it currently is to do with an ideological war (if you’ll excuse the use of the ‘W’ word) between Nationalism/Republicanism and political Unionism. I don’t see Unionism as being a culture, rather a political ideology. I don’t see marching/bands/Orangeism etc as culture, but instead the pomp and circumstance of that particular ideology.
We’re into the battle for hearts and minds, or soft power or whatever you want to call it. We live in interesting times.
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I see that mentalist over at Slugger O’Toole is accusing Sinn Féin of mounting a ‘demographic war’. This on the back of a BBC story about some community relations report! BBCIRA, NISRAIRA, PeaceReportIRA.
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Just read it! Oh dear.
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Inflammatory language – he must be desparate for hits.
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You would imagine that Unionists would be heavily in favour of parity of esteem – in their own best interests – bearing in mind the fact that it will be the Unionist community who will be the minority by 2020 – and the voting minority by the
mid-2020’s – with the gap widening every year subsequently.
What’s Ulster-Scots for “Game’s up” ?
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“What’s Ulster-Scots for “Game’s up” ?
Munsterman, that’s why there are two nations on Ireland; we don’t have a word for that but we do have a special one for our own awkwardness – thran.
“You just keep marching round in circles with your loyal brethern. You make more converts to the cause of national reunification every year.”
FF, oh dear. Where are all those rushing to proclaim their love of Erin in opposition to a parading tradition that is much more “Irish” than anything seen on St Patrick’s Day or any of the other attempted rip-offs of Rio visible throughout the year?
“Intolerance of opposing views is hardly going to win many people over to a UI.”
Sammy, the same is equally true of the hearts and minds battle for the Union. Unfortunately on both sides, there are none so blind as the fundamentalists or the poorly educated.
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carrickally,
re. “thran”
Gwan and give us a good example of its use.
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I’m a thran bugger, sammy. Tell me that something is for my own personal aggrandisement and I’ll be inclined to believe that the opposite is true. In a way, it’s evident in the Scotch reaction to English “interference” in their independence debate; every time an Englishman speaks on the issue (from Cameron to Bowie), I cringe because I just know that Scots are reacting with thran-ness.
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Quality. Will adopt forthwith.
Perhaps you can give us a list (perhaps a blog BD?) on the top 20 Ulster-Scots words in common(ish) use (at least in your own homestead).
Disappointingly not that many Irish words have made their way into(English) everyday speech – a few examples are cupla focal(couple of words) , cunas(quiet) and putting ‘in’ -with a fada(accent) over the i – to denote that something is small. Cant think of any more at the moment – although many English words clearly have Irish/Gaelic roots.
p.s. Please excuse the Irish spelling.
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RJC
“I don’t see Unionism as being a culture, rather a political ideology. I don’t see marching/bands/Orangeism etc as culture, but instead the pomp and circumstance of that particular ideology.”
Oh dear.
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Well, there you have it. I might feel differently if the town I lived in didn’t get covered in flags and red, white and blue bunting for nearly half the year. Culture to my mind is art, literature, drama, music etc. Marching in a quasi military fashion doesn’t seem like culture to me.
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RJC, a pity that you can’t see the elements described by your good self within Orangeism; the majority of the literature is biblical, you don’t get more arty than the banners (to give a ball-park figure, ours is made of silk and cost around £2,000 fifteen years ago), the drama is evident in the public display of marching in a quasi-military fashion and the music.
Well, the music stands for itself and incorporates Irish traditional (the Sash, the Boyne Water), English and Scots folk and hymns (abide with me, I Vow to Thee My Country, Jamie’s Patrol), military marches from around the world (Mars der Medici is Dutch, Preussens Gloria is German, Divided they Fought is American, Punjaub is Raj-era Indian), modern pop and classical (Rivers of Babylon, Highland Cathedral, the Game of Thrones theme) and is adapted to the quasi-military style through time changes and trio passages.
Whilst what I’ve mentioned in music has incorporated “foreign” influences, I’d wager that our culture is as native as they get and its difference from what you would classically rate as culture doesn’t make it any less so.
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What I struggle with is that the art/music/culture etc you cite is so inextricably intertwined with the more triumphalist and sectarian aspects of Unionist ideology that it becomes impossible to separate the two. So much of what you’ve listed above concerns itself with military victory over the Jacobites/Fenians/whoever that if you take that away, what is there left? A bunch of lads playing tv themes and Boney M songs on flutes and Lambeg drums?
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sammy, that’s an interesting challenge, I might come back to a list of twenty after some aforethought but I’ll give you some of the top of my head.
wean – child
brave – good or nice
quare – impressive/also a size connotation adjective
feart – afraid
scunnered – sickened
turned – as above!
cowp – overturned
sleekit – nasty/conniving
foundert – freezing
Then the more obvious wee and aye that permeate conversation even in the metropolis!
On the Gaelic words, I can’t say I know the two you mentioned and while I know of the in/een connection, to me that exists in the pages of Playboy of the Western World and in the mocking of Dubliners (no offence, BD!). The only Gaelic words I would ever hear regularly in East Antrim are cailie (a dance or “do” as we would interchange it with), sheugh and potcheen.
Apologies for all spellings, I’ve written them as they sound and not as the attempted standardisation of Ulster Scots might have them or in the Gaelic version as standardised in the 20’s/30’s(?).
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Good list a chara,(friend) – a GA favourite and another example.
Perhaps its obvious but cant think what ‘sheugh’ is. Other obvious examples are slan(goodbye) and slainte (get it down ye) – fadas (accents) are missing over the As
Caile is spelt ceile – and that reminds me of another one used in Yankeeland as well – cailin (girl) or ‘quareone’ which leads us back to your UScots ‘qaure’. Presumably you are familiar with the expression quare-fellah as per the boul Brendan Behan. Sounds similar to your definition?
I may be wrong (as oft times before) but I think quare and boul are the ‘Irish’ equivalents of Ulster Scots – i.e. words that have changed because of local pronunciation(dialect).
What about ‘wild’ (very) and ‘firninst’ (beside) are they Ulster Scots?
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A sheugh is a ditch at the roadside. You’re right about quare in use as a cross-over, a bit like crack/craic.
For directions, you’ve mentioned firinst, there’s also afore, hinter.
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I don’t want to get all territorial – but are you telling me we have to share ‘craic’ ?
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re. ‘sheugh’ , of course – can’t remember ever seen that written down – in my mind ‘shuck’ – which would be wrong if Irish, as no ‘k’.
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What aboot capping the cow in case she cowps intae the sheugh abeen the slap?
at least 2 gaelic words in that yin Carrickally. Or perhaps your frae the toon and canny ta’k richt onyway?
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You can have it sammy, bloody awful word that can be confused with a drug or an arse all too easily!
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RJC “So much of what you’ve listed above concerns itself with military victory over the Jacobites/Fenians/whoever that if you take that away, what is there left? A bunch of lads playing tv themes and Boney M songs on flutes and Lambeg drums?”
Nah, we’ll move on to duffing the Jerries! Taking away the historic resonance of any culture reduces it to gaudy carnival; I give you the dreadful St Patrick’s Day parade in Belfast which is just a greener version of the rainbow run on Pride day. No mention of a man’s great story of triumph over adversity, of faith in his God or his missionary work.
Flutes and lambegs don’t mix, btw. It’s fifes that go with the big drum, marking the beat while the lambeg provides the rhythm. And there are around 30,000 playing musical instruments in loyalist bands in NI, a vibrant scene by any stretch of the imagination. Can’t wait for my own practice tomorrow night as we crack on with developing our parks programme for the summer; scaring the dogwalkers of Whiteabbey since the 1860’s!
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carrickally,
re. I think that is the trick for the OO et al – either march in non-contentious areas e.g. Rossnowlagh or Unionist only areas and if elsewhere (i.e. within earshot of Fenians) don’t play the anti-Fenian stuff just play the duffing up the Jerries etc stuff.
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Would be interesting to compare old fashioned unionism in NI with the Unionist/Tory party on Clydeside and Merseyside.
In the end the Clydeside/Merseyside working class orange/prod vote faded away.
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On Merseyside the Protestant Party attracted a reasonably large vote onto Liverpool City Council, with councillors elected up to the 1960’s. The Tories were figured out there as unconcerned with working class issues much earlier than Clydeside, where the Tories were (and still are) the unionist party, despite Labour and the Lib Dems now clearly defining as unionist in the northern kingdom.
The big house unionism died at roughly the same time as Clyde toryism as a major force; early 1960’s. This is when the new breed (now ironically the old guard) of unionism came through, generally well educated and middle class with only a fleeting grip on working class loyalism – worker’s strike and AIA – but as detached from reality as the big housers.
Now that most people don’t vote – my wife has told me she’s not going anywhere near a polling station on 22nd May – east of the Bann, you have to wonder why parties haven’t done a spot of market analysis. Or perhaps Robbo has, and he’s concluded that getting the estates’ vote is a slightly higher in possibility than Catholics although he’s still throwing out feeders.
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Certainly must be strange for any unionist in NI thinking of Scotland as their “old homeland” that the Nationalist leaders are mostly church going prods.
Even more so when the said nationalists have managed to go from a slightly perceived crank group to 20 weeks away from ending the UK state.
Interesting times.
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