And so onto the next in the series. I’ve long been curious about Antrim in particular as I consider it a changing town. Over to Faha:
This 8th analysis of the new district councils will cover the new Antrim Newtownabbey council. This new district council comprises all of the current Antrim and Newtownabbey councils. The demographic breakdown is 29.74% Catholic, 61.1% Protestant, 1.09% Other and 8.08% None. The following shows the change in the turnout for the nationalist and unionist parties comparing the 2005 and 2011 district council elections.
The election turnout for the 2005 and 2011 elections indicate:
#1 There was a steep decline in turnout between the 2005 and 2011 elections.
#2 Unionist turnout is much higher than nationalist turnout in all DEA’s except Northwest, where turnout is equal.
#3 Almost 2,500 additional nationalist voters would have had to vote in 2011 in order to equal unionist turnout.
#4 In the 2011 Assembly election, nationalist voter apathy (approximately 1,400 voters within the boundaries of the South Antrim constituency), resulted in the defeat of the SDLP candidate, who lost by approximately 1,200 votes.
#5 Nationalist voter apathy in the Macedon and Antrim Line DEA’s also affects the North Belfast Westminster election. There is approximately a 700 vote nationalist voter deficit within the boundaries of the Newtownabbey section of North Belfast, which is 1/3 of the votes by which Gerry Kelly lost his election to Nigel Dodds in 2010.
The percentage change in the party vote between 2005 and 2011 is as follows:
For Newtownabbey, the SDLP vote decline in Antrim Line DEA defected to SF. The increase in SF and SDLP vote in University DEA is entirely due to the fact that the 2011 election is the only election in which SF and the SDLP have competed here. The SDLP decline in Macedon is entirely due to no candidate and the 2005 voters voted SF or Alliance. The increased Alliance vote is mainly due to UUP voters who have defected to Alliance, which accounts for the decline the UUP vote in 2011. There was also a steep decline in the DUP and independent unionist vote.
For Antrim, there was a sharp decline in the SDLP vote. There was also a steep decline in the UUP vote and a similar increase in the Alliance vote, indicating that many UUP voters defected to the Alliance party. The decline in the DUP vote in Southeast DEA is due to voters that defected to the TUV.
The new DEA’s bear some resemblance to the old ones (see map). The Northwest DEA (now Dunsilly) has been expanded to include Parkgate ward and a section of Doagh ward and now has a slight Protestant majority. All the town of Antrim is now included in one DEA. The predicted election results are based on the 2011 turnout.
The average ward electorate is 2355. The total electorate and average ward electorate for each DEA is.
Dunsilly 11939 (2388)
Antrim 14414 (2402)
Airport 12751 (2550)
Ballyclare 12411 (2482)
Glengormley 15523 (2218)
Macedon 13171 (2195)
3 Mile Water 14005 (2334)
The current Antrim and Newtownabbey councils had the following party strength after the 2011 elections.
SF 6
SDLP 4
Alliance 7
UUP 10
DUP 17
Total 44
The expected party strength in the new council with the new DEA boundaries:
SF 5
SDLP 3
Alliance 6
UUP 9
DUP 17
Total 40
The new council will have 4 fewer councilors and the net party loss would be.
SF -1
SDLP -1
Alliance -1
UUP -1
DUP 0
The new DEA boundaries are favourable to the DUP as they would have the same number of councilors despite 4 fewer councilors in the new council. As in the other councils I have covered to date, low nationalist turnout affects the results. There should be a SDLP councilor elected in Antrim DEA, since the nationalist electorate is approximately 37%, far above 2 quotas (28.6%). However, the 30% nationalist turnout in 2011 is so low that if it does not increase then there will be only one nationalist seat here. There are 1.5 nationalist quotas in Macedon DEA, but with a 28% nationalist turnout in 2011, there will be no nationalist councilors elected in this DEA unless turnout increases. Although this is a unionist majority council, it is possible that in 15 to 20 years there will not be a unionist majority on the council. If nationalist turnout increases to the level of unionist turnout, there would be 2 additional nationalist councilors in Antrim and Macedon. Also, the growth of the Catholic population in Dunsilly, Airport, Glengormley and 3 Mile Water is occurring so rapidly that there would be one additional nationalist councilor elected in each of these 4 DEA’s 15 years from now. At that point there would be 20 unionist and 20 non unionist councilors (6 Alliance and 14 SF-SDLP).
"We in coming days may be" 
the real need appears to be an increase in SF/SDLP voter turnout – which in turns depends on the committment/motivation of local grassroots party activists
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I don’t understand where these areas are? Where is Macedon anyway? I’ve no idea whether my vote would make any difference. Most nats I know in my area would believe voting is pointless in Newtownabbey.
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Macedon contains the wards of Valley, Rathcoole, Whitehouse, Carmoney Hill and Abbey and extends almost to the University of Ulster. 3 Mile Water is the University of Ulster area, Jordanstown, Monkstown, extending through Ballyduff to Mossley. Glengormley Urban includes Collinbridge, Hightown, Burnthill, Carmoney and part of Malllusk. Voting is not pointless in Newtownabbey. The reason there are so few nationalist councilors is because most nationalist voters do not vote. if they voted, there would be more nationalist councilors.
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Agree with all you said. The sdlp, sinn fein and other nationalist/republican parties need to be canvassing the massive new developments in Glengormley/Mallusk, Crumlin and even around the university area.
Houses still selling like mad in Glengormley/Mallusk. Lots of working class folk from north/west Belfast and from rural nationalist areas.
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Thanks. The message is not getting out, and I would point the finger at a lack of canvassing. I had an interesting conversation with my Dad tonight re Enoch Powell and the effort he put into touching base. It may be difficult for the SDLP or SF to walk down my street and knock doors and posted flyers are just pointless. They need to do something, phone, social media, hang out in the right places.
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zig70,
Macedon is essentially the super unionist estate of Rathcoole with Nationalist enclaves of Bawnmore and Longlands bolted on. SF actually got quite close to taking the last seat here in 2011, but the new DEA extends Northward taking in more unionist areas out of the old University DEA. It probably rules out a nationalist seat completely this time.
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I think part of Glengormley (Glebe) is now in Macedon DEA too and SF should get a seat.
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Apologies for misleading. Glebe ward was initially meant to be in Macedon DEA but the recommendation was changed. Faha is correct.
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Should still be a nationalist seat there – if voters in Bawnmore/ Longlands can be mobilised.
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FF,
Yes, Glebe ward was taken out of Macedon in the final recommendation. Your initial post is still partly correct because the new Carmoney Hill ward now includes sections of the old Glebe ward and old Carmoney ward. Approximately 500 voters of which 40% nationalist. The new Macedon has a Catholic electorate 2% higher than the old one so SF may have won a seat in 2011 if these new boundaries were in place then. The 28% nationalist turnout hurts those prospects though.
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I think an important factor in increasing turnout is that voters have to believe that their preferred party/candidate has a good chance of winning. The near-miss in Macedon in 2011 combined with the increased nationalist electorate should see SF home this time.
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For many nationalists the sdlp is too anti republican and needs to get over its obsession with the provos. Likewise for the same folk Sinn Fein is now too socially liberal to vote for. There is a big market for a conservative nationalist party out there without the anti republican hangups of the sdlp.
The more nationalist/republican votes the better.
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Still five years off but it will be interesting to see if FF do actually decide to start fielding candidates in the North. And if they do then presumably FG and Labour won’t be far behind.
Both SF and SDLP are missing a trick by not canvassing hard, particularly in in areas with newer developments, which will often attract the under 40s. We all know how the demographics look for this age bracket, so the low nationalist turnout needs to be addressed.
Quite a few of these new council areas have the whiff of a DUP gerrymander about them (which SF possibly agreed to so that they could take Belfast?) but the demographics speak for themselves. Older people are more likely to vote and are more likely to vote for Unionist parties, yet for younger people it seems the opposite is the case. A hard push to get younger nationalist voters to the polling booths will reap rewards.
The NI Peace Monitoring Report, and in particular the school league tables seem indicative of the way things are headed. Slugger have dealt with it a bit, but I would be interested to hear what the statisticians among us make of it.
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You have described me to a T oakleaf, I will not be voting. I have no one to vote for. and the SDLP and SF can canvass as hard as they like, I will not vote for them.
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Sinn Fein intend to canvass as many of the houses in Airport, Glengormley Urban and Macedon as possible over the next 7 weeks. Big new estates like Blackrock and Dermont are now in Airport so Annemarie Logue will be canvassing there. Gerry 0’Reilly , Bronac Anglin and I have been out every night in Glengormley and Macedon over the past few weeks. Sinn Fein recognise that personal contact is key to mobilising turnout in this election. We are also standing candidates in seats we can win, including Macedon. We are giving voters across the island the opportunity to vote SF, some for the first time ever.
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Is Whiteabbey area in Macedon DEA now? And would you venture up there to canvass?
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In fairness to any nationalist candidate whether I agree with their policies or not I don’t envy their job of canvassing in Newtownabbey.
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Pingback: The 11 new district councils – projecting the 2011 votes « Slugger O'Toole
http://www.newtownabbey.gov.uk/Election2014/default.asp
Candidate list
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How come David Hollis TUV Macedon who had the third highest first preference votes is not even considered.
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