Next Year, and it’s not long away, we have the next round of European Parliament elections. It could be fun. The interesting thing from the point of view of this part of the world is the old sectarian headcount canard. As always my own view is that only the votes count. The Euro elections are a strange one in terms of elections here. They tend not to generate a particularly high turnout, probably because we all know that Europe revolves upon our political machinations (ahem) and the finances they tend to send our way is a reward for good (or percieved as good) behaviour. A lesson not lost on certain elements we are all familiar with who have a certain sense of entitlement without the attendant responsibilities as a result.
Taking a quick look at recent Euro elections, the turnout is typically low.The results are below:
The fly in the ointment is the fragmentation of the Unionist vote.This has happened before of course. The DUP vote collapse transferred en-mass to Jim of the TUV last time out but this time there may be other anti EU forces in play, notably the Fleggers and the UKIP wings of Unionism.
From a nationalist viewpoint the question is whether 2 seats out of 3 is achievable. I think it is. The only question is if nationalist voters can be energised enough to turn out in sufficient numbers. That may depend upon a combined unionist vote transferring more effectively than previously.
1984 | 1989 | 1994 | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | |
Green Party | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
TUV | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.7% |
Sinn Féin | 13.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 17.3% | 26.3% | 26.0% |
Democratic Unionist Party | 33.6% | 29.9% | 29.2% | 28.4% | 32.0% | 18.2% |
SDLP | 22.1% | 25.5% | 28.9% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 16.2% |
Ulster Unionists | 21.5% | 22.2% | 23.8% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 17.1% |
Alliance Party | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
Independents | 2.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
Workers Party | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
So what are the odds on a transfer of power? Diane Dodds is an incredibly weak candidate for the DUP. She is very demonstrably petulant, weak and ineffective. She is vulnerable in the face of a serious challenge. I think the DUP know this. Unlike others, I think the threat of a second DUP candidate is a direct reaction to this reality, not, as reported (and attributed to Jim Allistar) and unchallenged by the msm, as a challenge to the Official Unionists. It is interesting that this went un-commented upon by the DUP.
Anyhow, the interesting thing will be the turnout and how it is affected if combined with council elections. My guess is that nationalism may just squeeze that second seat.
boondock said:
Once the runners and riders have been confirmed you should run a prediction contest. Winner gets several hundred pounds of amazon vouchers courtesy of bangordub or they can gamble on the local council results for a chance to win a speed boat.
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boondock said:
On a serious note I cant see nationalism getting a second seat as Alex Attwood has zero appeal just ask the West Belfast electorate. They should have picked one of the young guns like Durkan or Eastwood and then with the fragemented unionist vote they might have had a slim chance. I think it will be interesting to see how Bryson will do as although he is a joke and historically has got next to no votes he may get a few thousand and might just embarrass the likes of Henry Reilly who will do worse. Its also always interesting to see how the Alliance and Green votes transfer as they have been working there way back to nationalism more and more in recent years
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Glenn S said:
Does Martina Anderson have appeal?
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boondock said:
No but she will be voted in with ease, the SDLP on the other hand if they have any chance of getting elected will rely on wavering types, non-voters and getting votes from across the divide, can Alex attract those vote – I doubt it
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Glenn S said:
Do you expect Martina Anderson to depress the SF vote, relative to last time, given her lack of appeal? Do you expect dissident republicans to put up a candidate in the way that unionists put up candidates, allowing people to express their attitude?
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boondock said:
The number of SF votes will be down but this will be due to a low turnout their overall percentage share will still be around 25% and despite having a go at Attwood the SDLP share will hold around the late teens but I just dont think it will be enough. Dissidents wont bother as it will just show us what we already know ie they have no real support their best bet is to concentrate on gaining a few council seats where they have a concentration of followers. I think 3 or even 4 nationalist candidates may help actually improve turnout and benefit SF and SDLP with transfers but when you start getting to 7 or 8 parties which unionism may have then the votes fragment as people rarely bother to go so far down the list.
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factual said:
Much depends on who Alliance put up. Given that SF have offered a weak candidate, who has zero presence East of the Ban, a strong Alliance candidate could well experience an upward surge, especially in TV debates.
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Glenn S said:
Not sure I would agree with that. Alliance even if they offer a good candidate will not take *that* many votes off SF, even in the more important battlegrounds east of the Bann.
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PaulG said:
I can’t see how any potential SF voter would decide that the SF candidate is weak and then opt to vote Alliance.
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Glenn S said:
Latest news is that republicans try to bomb the Continental Market. Loons!
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boondock said:
Oakleaf I admire your stance over Anderson however it seems silly to not vote at all you could lend your vote to anyone else, give it to the SDLP to help nationalism or Alliance to back their stance at BCC or to the Greens for their hard work or even NI21 to back moderate sensible unionism over the buckfast fuelled flegger unionism that nearly all the other unionist parties seem to encourage. Either bullet vote or go down the list but surely vote the turnout every year is lowering and although you can argue that they are all useless its still better to have some say
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bangordub said:
Well Said Boondock! 🙂
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Oakleaf said:
After Martina Anderson’s decision to vote for abortion on demand with no limits as a human right there is no way I can ever vote Sinn Fein again. See Estrela report if anybody is wondering what I’m talking about.
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PaulG said:
Surely, after all that Nationalists have been through, to finally be on the cusp of having a voting majority, the emphasis should be on transferring to all Nat. parties regardless of secondary policies and how strongly some reprentatives support them. Time enough to counter/change policies when the Orange Jackboot is relocated up Peter Robinson’s arse.
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Oakleaf said:
I would generally agree hence why I have voted SF since I was able. However voting for abortion on demand with no limit as a human right is beyond the pale. To make matters worse the report also recommended teaching 4 year olds and up about sex and masturbation. Thankfully the bill failed.
The next election will be my first I have never voted in and that will be hard because I like exercising my right to vote.
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bangordub said:
Andersonstown News Leader on new flags, voting and national identity, well worth a read: https://twitter.com/squinteratn/status/410700953751269377/photo/1/large
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
As I have said in a number of blogs – this one included – I will no longer be voting for any nationalist party due to their social policies which are decadent or at least tolerant of decadence. We need a new nationalist party to represent people like me, and there are a growing amount of us, in order to maximise the nationalist vote.
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PaulG said:
Well I’m not impressed with a lot of what SF are doing/not doing or supporting/not supporting (or the SDLP for that matter) but unless you start your own party and only admit very same minded people, you’ll always have to put up with some things you don’t like.
I’m not impressed with Martina Anderson and I certainly back the calls for a new Nationalist party – odds are it would tick more of my boxes than the ones we have. In the meantime, I prefer to try to keep as many DUP bigots out of office as possible.
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sammymcnally said:
BD,
I read the atown news article – not sure the numbers involved. (I like the term Ulster myself plus the Red Hand symbol – good Irish stuff – in my book anyway).
What I’m not sure about is whether you are eligible to vote (as suggested in a previous post you did) if yuo are registered for other state servies – that was certainly indicated in that post – though I may have misundertood?
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
I understand your point Paul but to do this will be claimed as a vindication of their policies, the less that do the better in my opinion, at the end of the day it will not matter too much if the unionists get two or one seats apart from the psychological effect, however if the people who are in charge of policy in the SDLP and SF understand that their policies are delaying Irish unification and losing them seats they may change tact. My contention is that so called “liberal” social policies are vote losers rather than vote winners. Just my opinion.
It is exceedingly difficult to start a new party from scratch and few people have the time, energy and/or circumstance to do so, especially in the atmosphere of the 6 counties.
I will not be voting.
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Glenn S said:
From John Hume to Martina Anderson. What went wrong?
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
the GFA
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Enda said:
What’s all this talk of ‘a new Nationalist Party’ being required? Would this be a 6 county only party in which case it would be just another partitionist party? What the North needs is for the other supposedly Nationalist party Fianna Fail to move North. Northern Nationalists need a party to vote for with right of centre economic parties.
As for not voting for Nationalist people not voting for Nationalist parties. That is just plain stupid. If I was pissed off with SF over an abortion policy I would change from 1.SF 2.SDLP 3.Alliance 4.Green Party to 1.SDLP 2.SF 3.Alliance 4.Green Party
Same way in the South a few years ago a Nationalist might of voted 1.SF 2.FF 3.Green Party 4.Labour 5.FG. Now that FF are largely responsible for the economic collapse and FG and to a lesser extent Labour are responsible for turning things around somewhat the vote could be 1.SF 2.FG 3.Labour 4.Green Party 5.FF.
Number 5 for FF for a couple of elections is punishment enough. No need to not vote. Don’t forget the less Nationalist votes the greater the % of Unionist representation. I don’t think I need to remind people what Unionists when in a position of power.
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Enda said:
correction: right of centre economic policies.
correction: As for Nationalist people not voting for Nationalist parties….
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Glenn S said:
FF is centrist/left.
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Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
Enda, I agree. There is certainly an electoral block in the north-east of the country for FG/FF right-of-centre or straight right policies on social and economic matters, a block that is currently defaulting to the SDLP (or worse the UUP, Tories, etc.).
But so far FF is still merely talking-the-talk about moving north. I doubt any move is likely in the near or medium future unless SF are really putting the electoral frighteners on FF in this part of the country.
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factual said:
If you are looking for a right wing party you need FG. Though Enda to his credit has taken on the Catholic church, as Catholicism continues to slip in its share of the population south of the border.
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Oafleaf said:
I do not hold right wing views. I do not see why being oppossed to abortion is seen as right wing. Many neo-liberal right wingers are as pro choice as you’ll get.
If it were possible I still would not vote for the blueshirts.
What ever happened good auld working class values and a proper working class party. All so called left wing parties have dropped their labour values and are instead pushing middle class neo-liberal values with not one toss for economic equality.
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Croiteir (@Croiteir) said:
Enda – FF moving north would be welcome – although I do doubt their social conservatism. In the context of the northern electorate they would be new in that it is about 80 years since they last stood in the north. In fact it would be a welcome development for all southern partitionist parties to cease being abstentionist and move north to represent the people here.
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Séamas Ó Sionnaigh (An Sionnach Fionn) said:
Talking of things right-wing the prolific WorldByStorm has a very good analysis of national politics over on the CLR..
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Ulster-Celt said:
final recommendations for local government published
http://www.deac-ni.org/index/current-review-of-district-electoral-areas/final-recommendations.htm
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Feckitt said:
No real changes worth talking about from the Provisional Recommendations.
Belfast remains unchanged.
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Glenn S said:
Meanwhile republican loons return to what they do best: explode bomb in Cathedral Quarter as people are enjoying Christmas, bad for business bad for investment, bad for republican objectives. *Rolls eyes*
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Glenn S said:
And loyalists think its a great idea to bomb the Alliance party *rolls eyes*
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