In a week where we have had the unveiling of a plaque to Thomas Begley who died planting a bomb on the Shankill Rd by Republicans, a march commemorating the innocent victims of the same bombing by their local community, the release of a book by Anne Cadwallader which is a stunning indictment of British Government security force policy and collusion and, finally, a visit to Belfast by Aung San Suu Kyi, I thought I’d be better saying nothing to be honest.
I’ve changed my mind so forgive me if I ramble a bit.
The BBC Newsline report on the tragedy interviewed the Reverend Margaret Ferguson (Shankill Methodist Church) who spoke of the bombing “where 9 people lost their lives”. In actual fact, of course, there were 10, including Begley. Nobody has mentioned the fact that Loyalist paramilitaries saw fit to base their HQ in such a location. The plaque visible in the BBC report on the first floor clearly reads “West Belfast UDA HQ” It is now clear that Johnny Adair and his cronies were the target and the intention was not to cause civilian casualties. It is worth remembering that at least 14 innocent catholics were murdered as direct reprisals in response. That is not to excuse or condone in any way what occurred on the Shankill Rd.
It may not be the done thing in certain circles but it does nobody credit to twist facts to suit agendas or to choose who the victims are. What we should be trying to do is learn lessons from the mistakes of the past. It makes us all poorer to allocate blame
Finally, A song about Aung San Suu Kyi by Damien Dempsey Rice with Lisa Hannigan;
"We in coming days may be" 
Having watched the BBC Newsline program it seemed as if the BBC had been very careful in their wording – but they got it wrong.
The BBC rightly included the claim by the IRA that they had been intended to attack the UDA upstairs in the shop but stopped short of assessing the validity of the claim other than to state that no meeting had taken place that day.
The BBC, presumably, decided to sidestep providing a fuller perspective – given the horror which unfolded that day – and the outrage that such perspective might provoke from survivors and relatives of the victims.
This case exposes the difficulty in trying to ‘deal with the past’, given that the relevant facts cannot even be aired properly 20 years after the tragedy.
On WIKI it is reported that one the vicitms of the bomb was a member of the UDA – I’m not sure how relevant that is?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shankill_Road_bombing
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Damien Rice even 😉
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Facetiousness aside, I was heartened to see that the images I saw on the news of the Shankill commemorations did not appear to have been hijacked by the flag waving brigade. The extremists need to stop being allowed to dictate the narrative. We need to remember all the dead and afford them all a certain dignity. A life is a life.
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A point well made, RJC.
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I’m not a Shankill man (thank God!) but know a few. The anger is still palpable about this.
There is no way that a short-fused bomb on a Saturday afternoon, which wouldn’t have allowed any warning, can be justified by saying that UDA HQ was upstairs. None. To do so is to twist a story beyond credulity.
The Glenanne gang has been a long-known thing, it’s certainly no revelation by a member of the Finucane centre. Old news repackaged springs to mind. Also, and fortunately, they were stopped (who by?) from launching an attack on a Maintained school in retaliation for one or other of the massacres in South Armagh.
One other point that hasn’t been noted about this week just passed; a firebomb in the city centre. I’d have thought that was rather a big deal, considering friends in CC shops have been told to check premises as a regular occurance from now on. Yet it would seem that the news is being suppressed, presumably to starve publicity oxygen.
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Carrickally,
I’m not from the Shankill either (surprise) but if I was I’d have been pretty angry also.
I took care above to not in any way justify the bombing. It was wrong full stop.
Regarding the Glennane gang, you are correct, it has been well known for a long time but never acknowledged or admitted by the state agencies involved. That is the key point. Are you seriously suggesting that a single attack on a school, of all places, was prevented and that this somehow exonerates the state? On the contrary it implicates them in that no action was taken to arrest and charge those responsible.
Your last point regarding the series of firebombs and pipebombs over recent weeks I agree with. If these idiots think it advances the cause of Irish re-unification one jot they are badly mistaken. It is nihilist self defeating nonsense.
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@Carrickally,
As far as one can tell the objective was to stage a “decapitation strike” against the Belfast leadership of the UDA-UFF who were due to hold their weekly meeting in the first-storey room above the shop. The premises had been under surveillance for several weeks and the interior plan of the shop reconnoitred. The Volunteers who entered the building were to deploy the bomb on or near the ceiling below the upstairs room and then shout a warning as they exited the shop giving people inside and outside minutes to evacuate the vicinity while the UDA men above would be unaware of the commotion or confused by it. The explosion would then have brought down the ceiling killing or wounding most of the local UDA-UFF leadership.
The plan was reckless in the extreme and even if “successful” I cannot imagine that ordinary people in the area would have escaped physical injury let alone the great psychological harm that would have been done. Little to nothing can be said to excuse the operation or those who ordered it.
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I am baby-sitting my 10 month old granddaughter and she insists I play with her rather than be on Tinternet.
I will return to this later but just want to make two observations …
The first is that RJC is absolutely right. The commemoration was very dignified.
The second is about our visitor from Burma/Myanmar.
Her fathers war record WW2 is a bit interesting.
He was a nationalist who signed up for the Japanese.
Personally I have no problem with that….I had four uncles who flew during the Battle of Britain….uncle Heinz, Uncle Fritz, Uncle Siegfried and Uncle Ludwig.
Sorry…Bad taste…..very old Belfast joke.
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Mr Fitz,
I believe you are stirring the pot
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Perhaps I am wrong but who’s purpose is best served by current (dissident) events?
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Any claim of involvement from “dissidents”? What follows, arrests? Are they that amateurish? Can the Brits be trusted? Propaganda directed through the BBC,spoon fed to the population here and through the state broadcaster in the free state. I’ve seen this picture!
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Like “Carrickally”, I was a little surprised that the firebombing of a Belfast store did not get the attention it deserved. I am …as many will know…..convinced we are in Pre-Conflict mode and my response was that the whole thing was being down-played because it contradicts the carefully constructed narrative that everything in Norn Iron is just “hunky dory”.
But last night I asked someone in retail if he was worried and I was told that the message seemed to be that a ,particular incident was not necessarily political.
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I’m not sure that I agree with this notion that we are in ‘pre-conflict mode’. I appreciate that this may be wishful on my part, and I am willing to acknowledge the wisdom that comes with age but I still disagree.
I think that ‘The Troubles’ could arguably be seen as a blip of sorts. I think that attempting to extrapolate future events based on events of the past 50ish years is possibly misguided. I think that in order to successfully predict future ‘history’ you would need to take a larger sample of previous history to stand any chance of relative success.
I am neither a historian nor a statistician so arguably I don’t know what the heck I’m talking about but I am interested in how this idea of ‘pre-conflict mode’ came about. Am I correct in thinking that FJH and Carrickally are singing from the same hymn sheet in this regard? (First time for everything, eh lads? 😉 )
Would it be feasible to attempt to extrapolate patterns of behaviour by taking a different starting point in history? Rather than looking at today, and observing similarities between now and the 1960s, is it possible to take a broader view of these things?
If you were to take, for example The Flight of the Earls as your starting point, could patterns of pre-conflict/conflict/post-conflict be observed? Could you take a 400 year period as your ‘case-control study’?
Apologies, this has gone way off the original post and I should probably go to bed.
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RJC, I would wholly accept FJH’s view of pre-, current- and post-conflict cycles. My own spin on it would be successful and unsuccessful insurrections.
For example, 1919-22 was a successful insurrection insofar as it achieved independence for the majority of Ireland, 1956-62 was unsuccessful while 1968-98 was successful in that it resulted in the removal of the anti-terrorist infrastructure that had been built up and brought SF massive political gains.
Once upon a time, around the early 1990’s, one of the peace interlocuteurs on the Unionist side had a conversation with a leading loyalist. The former’s position was that the IRA knew they couldn’t win, the latter’s was that they were beaten. I think we all now know that they were losing (and I think much of that was down to what has been coined as “collusion” and a major factor in that was the activity of people like the ones who met above fish shops) and they were given a way out that, while not the complete success they wanted, has allowed them to go over to a stepping stone.
Now, as we know from republicanism, every campaign thus far has been seen as a failure because there is still a British presence on Ireland. That therefore means that there must be a new insurrectionist group to take on the mantle from those who sell out or betray the nation.
I think that the current insurrection (1998 to now or maybe a year ago) was another unsuccessful campaign on an objective level. That means that the next campaign, based on the historical pattern, stands a better chance of furthering the cause of Irish unity.
I therefore fear that there will be a stepping up of activity such as firebombing, attacks on security forces and, to force a tit-for-tat response, direct attacks on loyalists or Protestants (because the loyalist community is now so disconnected from PSNI that we/they couldn’t care less anymore if a police officer is murdered).
In a roundabout way, you could take the pattern of insurrection back to the Flight, or perhaps even further to 1169. Obviously records are sketchier the further back you go but the shrinking of the Pale, attacks on Dublin, the re-Gaelicisation, Statutes of Kilkenny and then Tudor attempts to resume control all predate 1607. After that you have the first siege of Derry, 1641, Drogheda and Waterford, 1686-1692, penal laws then secret societies, Yeomen, UI, YI, FB, IRB, UVF, IRA and every other initialed grouping under the red hand or starry plough.
A bit of a ramble but I’m a firm believer in historical precedents informing the future. We’ve done little to nothing about breaking the cycle so, as Shirley Bassey would say, it’s all just a case of history repeating.
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Very interesting stuff Carrickally – I’m always happy to read a good ramble! I spent much of my history lessons staring out the window daydreaming about music and girls, so I’m not as up as I feel I should be on a lot of what has happened these past 1000 years or so.
I think the difference in my view is that I would hope that armed insurrection on Ireland is largely a thing of the past. That the removal of a British presence on Ireland can be achieved through peaceful and democratic means. (By removal I mean only in political terms not the removal of those who identify as British – I hope this doesn’t need saying!) The battle for hearts and minds so to speak.
I agree with your re historical precedents informing the future – the old ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’ maxim. I hope that ‘The Troubles’ are still fresh enough in the minds of people here to ensure that we never go back there. I think the worry is that there is now a generation coming through who did not live through those dark days, and may be susceptible to an almost romantic view of taking up arms. This kind of ties in with the ‘Politics of Loneliness’ post here from a couple of weeks back.
I think it can feel at times as if we are living through a sort of ‘Cold War’ period – at least nobody here has got access to nuclear weapons 🙂
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First time i ever heard the troubles called a “blip”.
Even in more peaceful times, mid 1960s, i remember a certain statue in Dublin going skywards.
Back in August 1994 i asked an old-timer what they would happen now.
They answered, hot summers and cold winters.
By and large that exactly whats happened.
Some pretty drastic events, Omagh etc during the summer and quiet winters.
The future, well if BD is right then one day unionism will find itself living in a state run by non unionists.
I don’t know if unionism could really cope with that.
Maybe being part of the union and holding parades might be enough for them.
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PT, King William and King George statues were removed in 1929 following explosions, Boyne obelisk destroyed six years previously by the Irish Army, Hugh Hanna’s statue removed following a bomb in 1970, Walker’s memorial in 1973 destroyed by bomb.
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Nelson’s column was 1966, IIRC.
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Interesting stuff above,
I don’t support the blowing up of statues etc, that is a part of all our history, but I can understand that Unionism has a fear of such things happening. I do think that there is a fear of living in a non unionist dominated state. That is already happening and I think unionism is both unprepared for it and lacks the confidence to deal with it as a reality. Hence the harking back to the past.
An example is the re-naming of streets and landmark buildings south of the border post partition. It could have been better handled but it was a reaction to the perceived imposition of colonial symbolism. That is why political unionism needs to argue it’s case now. In a way it needs to manage rather than deny the transition that is taking place.
The mistake made consistently by unionism is to deny that change is happening and then to resist that change, usually by threats.
That is also why I would regard the likes of Basil McCrea’s new party as a genuine threat to nationalism.
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BD,
“That is also why I would regard the likes of Basil McCrea’s new party as a genuine threat to nationalism.”
How do you think Nationalists should treat NI21 when it comes to ballot transfers? – ahead of the the DUP & UUP, as they don’t seem to carry the same bigotted and supremacist attitude as those parties, or at the very bottom, as consequently they represent more of threat to acheiving a UI by attracting Unicorns to support the status quo?
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Paul,
Good question.
I would be well dispositioned towards them while recognising them as a unionist party. In a FPP election such as Westminster, I would not vote for them but in other votesusing PR, that we have here I would tend to vote through the card giving them a higher vote than other unionist parties or alliance.
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BD,
Would you see Alliance as more Unionist than NI21 ?
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Why would Nationalists transfer to any Unionist party even the non sectarian unionist party/NI21?
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Nationalist transfers to Alliance Candidates will have deprived the UUP or DUP of seats in the past. Belfast became a hung council sooner than it would have done.
STV is intended that voters go all the way down the list. The question now is, should Nationalists lowest transfers be to the DUP with NI21 very last, to help squash them, as they could represent a far more serious threat to a UI in the medium term, than the DUP will (even though they seem to be decent folk).
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Maybe the way to understand unionist feelings is to turn the story the other way round.
How would the C/N/R community feel if we were told we were returning to the political landscape of 50 years ago.
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“That is also why I would regard the likes of Basil McCrea’s new party as a genuine threat to nationalism”. – bangordub
Hmmmm……..I don’t – it is very clearly a Unionist part and the major impact will be to further fracture unionism..
It is my view that Nationalists are biding time until they (Nationalists) become the majority (2020 at the outside) – this will herald a fundamental change in the dynamic of how both communities interact. For Nationalists, it means they can throw the switch any time they want (in fact, the majority will only increase – irreversibly – from that moment onwards) – for unionists, they will then understand that Re-unification is no longer an “If” – but only a “When”.
By the late 2020’s, the FM will be Nationalist – and by the 2030’s the unionist community could well have dipped below the 40% mark in the North.
I do not see any way how any Unionist party – Ni21 – or any other – can possibly reverse the downward trajectory of unionism.
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BD, good points re: renaming. We’ve already seen the reaction to the McCreesh park in Newry.
MM, you seem to equate Nationalism with RC headcount; I think BD and PT have recognised NI21’s danger in attracting those unicorns that most on here are dismissive about. A Prod minority will not necessarily equate to the end of the Union.
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Alliance already fill that space and have made very limited inroads in attracting Nationalists – and they are not even labeling themselves as a unionist party.
Describing itself as a Unionist party was a huge mistake by NI21 – the only result will be to further fracture unionism.
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carrickally,
re. “you seem to equate Nationalism with RC headcount”
That is the implicit (and explicit) rationale behind this website. The South is a small bankrupt economy which cant print its own money – unlike the UK – which is a large bankrupt economy which can.
Although sharing the same ideology as BD and others I fall into the ‘pessimistic’ Nationalist wing – or as I would prefer to call it the ‘realistic’ wing of Nationalism i.e. I dont believe ‘Nationalists’ will/would vote for a UI until the South is in a robust economict state – this could be 20 years off.
After that point and assuming comparitive wealth between Britian and Ieland – Unionists will again have to worry about headcountery – just as they did in the hay days of Horseman on Ulster is Doomed – when Ireland was the richest country in the world.
Headcountery gains in the meantime are therefore most welcome and a prerequisite for ‘happier’ days ahead – but if there was a poll tomorrow – I dont believe a Yes to a UI would get anywhere near 40% – and hopefully the blustering by SF on a border poll has now run its (propagnadist) course.
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I wouldn’t get completely carried away that everything will stay the same.
Who know’s the effect a YES vote in Scotland would have on NI politics.
It only takes one vote and it’s goodnight UK.
Suppose the remaining part could call itself the Former United Kingdom or FUK for short.
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re. “I wouldn’t get completely carried away that everything will stay the same.”
There are a number of events which COULD impact favourably for Nats and Scottish independence is PERHAPS one of them. That unfortunately is unlikley (current odds with Patrick Power esquire is 4/1 against).
The British might decide to leave the EU – again fairly unlikely.
Direct rule may need to be reimposed as Unionist dislike of what Nats call the ‘equality agenda’ and Unionists call ‘undemining their culture’ continues. (Unlikley the boy Haas will make nay difference).
But such events wont have ‘Nationalists’ voting for a UI as long as the South remains in an economically critical condition.
p.s. FUK – techically just comprising the Southern Irish territories at the moment.
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Could you still be a unionist if there wasn’t any UK.
Does the term British become meaningless politically.
Notice the Scottish “undecided” in the polls are still showing up the in 30% bracket.
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We are soon reaching a stage where, to use sporting parlance, unionists will need all the results outside their control to go their way – in every single season in order to avoid the drop. This becomes even more acute for Unionists when they become the minority around 2020.
Defies logic to believe that can be done indefinitely which is all the more reason that a Re-United Ireland is inevitable.
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Interesting views all round here! As we are playing the game of whataboutery I thought I would add my opinion.
I suspect if a border poll was held tomorrow around 30% would vote for a UI. I base this on 95% of SF voters going for it and ~33% of SDLP voters. Perhaps 1-2% from the Protestant community may also vote that way. That leaves another 10-15% of Nationalist voters who need to be persuaded. What would their over-riding motive be? Their wallet? Or some deep seated view that they are better off in some bigger Union of people? Can they get this from the EU? (If it still exists)
In 20-30 years time there is a better chance that the Republic’s economy will be off it’s knees and it will be a far more attractive proposition to be part of a UI.
I doubt Scotland will go independent in 2014 but wouldn’t rule it out in the 2020s.
If Nationalists can assuage the fears of open-minded Unionists/members of the Protestant community and convince them that they have nothing to fear and lots to gain in a UI then I would imagine by 2030 a UI would become a reality.
By not courting Unionists, I would guess that Nationalists may need a 60% catholic majority before they win any border poll vote. By the time they get there (if ever) a bigger section of the Nationalist community may not give a flying fig which jurisdiction they are in and vote for the status quo.
So in my opinion, it is in the interests of both camps to act as persuaders for their cause. Yes, Unionists may be losing the demographic battle but they may win the battle to keep the status quo by persuading enough Nationalists in consecutive border polls not to rock the boat.
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Planting a bomb on a Friday afternoon in Belfast – disaster. planting a bomb on a saturday afternoon in Tyrone – disaster planting a bomb on a saturday afternoon in Warrington – disaster. Republican s make themselves had to like. Anything they were trying to achieve was badly lost. The best thing they can do is work to ensure it doesn’t happen again ( no matter the provocation.
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Off Topic but interesting picture showing Voter registration figures in East Belfast at Ward level: https://twitter.com/SeamusMagee/status/394942840490303488/photo/1
In addition the following has been released by EONI:
http://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/f1ca51a0-2358-408e-87fd-7a79336317d6/Electoral-Office-Release-Latest-Figures-on-Return-of-Canvass-Forms-28-10-13_1
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The twitter link is a bit confusing the pictures shows impressive response rates but the actual proportion registered is pretty average especially when we look at the figures for the rest of Northern Ireland on the eoni press release. Despite the big flegger appeal to get registered it seems to have made little difference. Interesting to note that the European AND local elections are pencilled in for the 22nd of May
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the DUP vote had recovered by 2011 at assembly and local gov elections, they will reclaim East Belfast at westminster 2015, I would assume that the PUP might get a boost also from the increased registration. the chances of Sinn Fein retaining their BCC seat in East Belfast is more than likely in trouble especially considering the provisional recommendations for Belfast DEA’s.(titanic)
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As long as unionist parties remain firmly focussed on re-arranging the deck-chairs on the upper deck of the Titanic, the better it suits Nationalists – that way there is no way of avoiding the massive Iceberg straight ahead.
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Figures seem to have PUL communities way ahead in terms of voter registration. Disenfranchment with lack of delivery on housing (eg. Girwood) and outstanding issues in GFA?
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Enda,
I have a feeling that, perhaps contrary to the popular view, this has been the siuation for some time – although not reflected in turnout.
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Do you have these figures, which allegedly show the unionist community way ahead?
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FF.
http://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/f1ca51a0-2358-408e-87fd-7a79336317d6/Electoral-Office-Release-Latest-Figures-on-Return-of-Canvass-Forms-28-10-13_1
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For a variety of reasons the young and the poor are less likely to register to vote.
I did the canvass in West Belfast, where no matter who you vote for a Shinner will win. I’d like to see the breakdown ward by ward.
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Not as big a difference as I thought Unionist constituencies three percentage points ahead as of 28th. Foyle, WB & SB way below average.
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FF breakdown ward by ward is available. Check EONI twitter
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BD,
I take it this is the fruit of the DUP’s Fleg mischief making. Presumably they were concentrating on getting Protestant names on the register rather than the Catholics and E. Europeans moving into the constituency.
It remains to be seen if these new Fleg conscious voters will be arsed to vote.
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Or indeed who will they vote for? The same Duke of York impersonators in the DUP?
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I’d say for every Fleg waving Baffoon, there are 4 normal E. Belfast Prods who are totally embarrassed by them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re keep their own counsel until election day and vote Naomi back in.
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I’m inclined to agree, in answer to your earlier question I would view both NI21 and Alliance as “Unionist Lite” parties. I’m pretty sure most Unionist voters will be repelled by the fleggers. I am yet to see any electoral evidence of Unicorns so it will be interesting to see how the pro-union vote splits.
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Alliance claim to be neutral on the Union (a Status Quo party what ever that maybe – though there’s no way we can test the truth of that). We can only say Belfast City Council is hung between Nats and Uns, which we generally do, if we accept their word.
If NI21 held the balance, then I would describe it as still unionist controlled, so I definitely think Nationalists should put NI21 after Alliance on the transfer list. The only question then is, do we prefer to deal with the DUP and not have NI21 around, converting ex-SDLP and Alliance Castle Catholics to full blown Unicorns.
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What do we make of Nelson McCausland’s latest sectarian social-engineering scheme?
http://www.u.tv/News/New-housing-scheme-targets-six-areas/e646045b-eccf-486d-b7fd-56cf9b78e31c
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You really want my opinion of “Half Nelson”?
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Yes, please!!
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I wouldn’t print it here. Several words come to mind. There’s a few beginning with B
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Is Nelson’s plan focussed on trying to get Prods back into North Belfast to safeguard DUP seats?
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Undoubtedly
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Does he need cross party support for this or are we back to 60’s again with Unionists dictating electoral boundaries, jobs and housing. What did SF choose control of, farming and teaching? I can’t see how that’s helping the cause.
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I remember this period very well but with my emotional memory. I’d split up with my Missus (again) and was living with my parents for a while. Something I remember all too well is the fear in my mother when I was going out of an evening.
My mother lived in the St James’ are of the Falls, an area that was hit pretty hard over the years by loyalists, who were accessing the area via the normally secure Donegal Rd, with the well equipped British army observation unit atop the nurses flats.
This is the context of the real fear at the time and the vista in which Begley and Kelly attacked those who were planning much of this violence which was permeating our lives, at the time. One issue that tends not to get highlighted is the spooks part in the attack. It’s well know that the place was fingered by the security services and the time of the meeting given by them, even though the venue was switched. What situation could better be an example of ‘why IRA’ than this?
I’ve often said that if there was one IRA action I would have personally carried out, it is this. Nolan and others have said that even if the fuse was longer, people could not have gotten out. At the same time, Nolan, in particular, asserts that a longer fuse would have allowed the targets too get down the stairs and out, as well as the customers. I can’t see that. It takes longer to recognise something is happening, go down stairs and exit the shop than it does to simpler leave the shop from ground level.
I don’t know the answer to the unknowns because the right questions seem too be deliberately go unasked.
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re. “I don’t know the answer to the unknowns because the right questions seem too be deliberately go unasked.”
I agree – the emotion of the event – (understandably) has clouded a proper analysis.
BD, It would make an interesting blog to review the facts that are known about this event and to pose the questions that remain unanswered.
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Sammy,
“It would make an interesting blog to review the facts that are known about this event and to pose the questions that remain unanswered.”
I agree.
Kalistas post above has left me thinking long and hard about to reply. It is a very honest and thought provoking post.
The difficulty for me is context. I’m a blow in. I didn’t live (in the abandoned 6 counties) here through those times and it is not for me to lecture those who did as to what I would have done although I suspect I know exactly that.
Others, such as FJH, have written well about those times and as a fellow pessimist I think you and he may agree on points.
To answer your question I would love to do a serious journalistic job on it. I may give it a shot but that involves speaking to a lot of people. Perhaps the laying of wreaths today at Greysteel on behalf of the people of the Shankill in response to the laying of a wreath on behalf of Ardoyne is an indication of the way ahead?
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TBH lads, I don’t see what additional detail you could ascertain that hasn’t already been lost in the ‘fog of war’. We know the essentials of who, what and why, which is more than we know about most things that happened guring the troubles. Go beyond that and you’re in the realm of speculation – to what end?
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FF,
The Fog of war needs to be stripped away. That is what is feared in certain quarters I think
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The main problem with ascertaining the ‘truth’ of exactly what happened is quite simply that the bomb killed those who were next to it. Who is there alive who saw exactly what happened, remembers it and is capable of giving reliable verifiable testimony?
Quite simply, I believe such a quest is mission impossible.
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BD,FF,
For me it is more the ’emotion of the aftermath’ rather than the ‘fog of war’ which presents the difficulty in this case.
Any analysis of this case from ‘our’ side of the case will be viewed as an attempt at ‘justification’ – and genuine denials of this will (understandably) just be ignored – and this of course swings boths ways – although not making a comparison between the 2 events – Nationalists had little time for the ‘context’ of Bloody Sunday of the killings of security forces in the run up to the day.
Despite these difficulties in this case – what does seem clear is that there are enough ‘facts’ available to get a reasonable picture of the most controversial question – did the IRA set out to kill the customers in the shop?
In my opinion the ‘operation’ was not in Widgery-speak, ‘bordering on the reckless’ but completely reckless but it seems counter intuitive to suggest that the intention was to kill the customers.
In relation to the involvement of ‘spooks’ – I suspect there is more chance of a civil parternship between Marty and Robbo (though they do make a lovely couple) than there is of throwing any light on the subject.
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I can’t disagree with anything that Sammy has posted here. It wasn’t PIRA’s modus operandi to inflict civilian casualties by bomb at that stage of the Troubles (compared to say Enniskillen or Abercorn) so it doesn’t “fit” that they deliberately did it UNLESS they were moving to a new tactic that was then put on the backburner by the reaction (both publicly and murderously) and wouldn’t reappear again until the period leading up to Omagh. I wonder were the same big wigs involved in both?
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carrickally,
I do hate love-ins – but (after a few wobbles in earlier in the year) at this stage – and (always suspecting a return to type by members of the ‘themmuns’ community) I am confident that when it comes to the nominations for ‘Fair Prod of the Year’* you will have my vote.
*Competition expected to be very light again this year.
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BTW, on Greysteel, one of the victims was an Orangeman. Not sure if that has ever been mentioned.
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I knew there was a protestant victim but was unaware he was an Orangeman.
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I also think he was ex-UDR
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Amd there’s a thing; Last week was (rightly) full, from Monday to Friday, with coverage of the Shankill anniversary but there was only a fraction of that for Greysteel, this week.
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Correct, I believe it got 25 mins on Nolan (the biggest _______ in the country)
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Last week, a caller asked Nolan if he would be covering the Gresteel anniversary and after stammering, indicating that he never gave it a thought, he said he would. Can’t help but feel that the BBC are going back to their bad old habits, utv never stopped them.
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Agreed, Paul. Greysteel was another horrible crime with a wicked attempt at justification (bar frequented by Provos, IIRC) by evil men. It was also deserving of the media coverage of the Shankill bomb but didn’t get it for (in my opinion) two reasons. One was that it is outside Belfast and two was that it didn’t have the cameras showing the aftermath in the same way as the bomb, during daylight hours.
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Good points and most likely true. Even Derry, until quite recently, was very much somewhere other to the Belfast media. I can only recall brief footage of the inside and the outside of the Rising Sun.
Incidentally, I didn’t know the DUP connection until I just read the Sentinel article.
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Canvass stats by ward
http://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/5c4126f7-a032-4828-8772-65b6fbe60089/Canvass-Statistics-by-Ward-(2)-24-10-13
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Quick question for all of the posters above as I’m loving the economic predictions as always (read I’m rolling my eyes at such naivety) but simple one; who here works in finance? And no, teller at the Ormeau Road Ulster Bank doesn’t cut it for me. It is a serious question btw
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fc,
re. “Quick question for all of the posters above as I’m loving the economic predictions as always (read I’m rolling my eyes at such naivety) but simple one; who here works in finance? And no, teller at the Ormeau Road Ulster Bank doesn’t cut it for me. It is a serious question btw”
FYI – Trying to sound clever often has the opposite effect.
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fc, what are you getting at?
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So nobody going to answer it? I’ll take the silence as a resounding ‘no, none of us above work in finance’.
Sammy, sage advice from you, I wonder, would you heed it? 😀
Carrick, my point is simple: I see claims that recovery in the South will take 10 to 20 years from some above and I ask a simple question to figure out what these assertions are based on. Is it mere anecdotal speculation or a serious insight? It’s clear from the responses I’ve gotten it’s the former so I’ll go back to ignoring most posters when it comes to their deliberations on macroeconomics.
BD, looking forward to the pint at Christmas btw, we can chat about some of this stuff.
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FC,
Pint – indeed ! 😉
On the economic question, I think all of us have an opinion due to being directly impacted by economic policies and effects. We don’t need to be paid professionals in finance for that.
Regarding the “claims that recovery in the South will take 10 to 20 years ” question, If I borrowed a fiver from you today and repaid it tomorrow, it is very different from repaying it in 20 years time.
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Oh, you’re allowed to have an opinion BD, unfortunately everyone does. My point is this, these guys who can supposedly see into the future, what are they building this opinion of theirs on?
I know it’s a blog, it’s for ordinary folks like us but if someone is going to type something that’s frankly not based on reality then I’m (occasionally) going to question it.
As for that fiver I’d loan you, for me that’s the epicentre of misunderstanding everywhere, people’s lack of understanding regarding debt and tied to that, the very basis of what a fiat currency actually means. I’d strongly recommend ‘The Ascent of Money’ by Ferguson for starters.
{http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Ascent-Money-Financial-History/dp/0718194004} -BD
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It won’t take anything like 10 – 20 years. One more tough budget and that should be the end of economic growth sapping austerity. All the indicators are positive. The trends are going in the right direction. GDP, GNP, the balance of payments, exports, PMI (manufacturing output), FDI, consumer sentiment index, consumer spending, employment all on an upward trajectory. Remarkable given global climate and several austerity budgets.
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Absolutely, all of the above are pointing in the right direction. Does anybody on here do rush hour traffic in Dublin? Its been building for a while and personally, I’ve noticed big daily tailbacks lately which were absent for years. We’re not there yet but if that’s an indication perhaps its happening on the ground before it turns up in statistics. Also, my student children are getting little bits of part-time work now, something that has been rare in the recent past. I’m no financial guru so maybe an “expert” could pronounce on my experience?
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Agreed Edna.
I’m fortunate that I see what our clients are investing in or working with. They don’t always get it right but things are looking up, even in Greece of all places. The macros there are amazing compared to previously, so for me, this pessimism based on (seriously, what is it based on?) anecdotal evidence and probable wishful thinking Infuriates me.
Know this; I have not got the answers. I work on this supposition and try to find the answers. The remainder above I see as people unwilling to look into things and come up with coherent answers, hence my Initial, frankly condescending post.
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The Finns thought it was the end of the world back in the early 90’s when the bottom fell out of their economy – and literally overnight unemployment went to nearly 20%.
As Enda points out, the recovery took less time than hadnbeen initially predicted – so much so that by the end of the 90’s, Finland was on the verge of another boom.
Anyone remember the 80’s in Ireland (the 26C) when ALL of the PAYE revenue went simply to SERVICE the National Debt. – catastrophic economics but by the late 90’s Ireland (the 26C ) was in much better shape.
Doom and Gloom is not a good economic strategy.
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re. “Anyone remember the 80′s in Ireland (the 26C) when ALL of the PAYE revenue went simply to SERVICE the National Debt”
Didint that period last for about 15 years? What went before wasn’t too clever either.
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The sustainability of Irish debt (National and Household) is a subject which divides those ‘in finance’ (as fc might refer to them). We simply dont know – because even if economic forecasting was an exact science – predicting growh or inflation rates in a small peripheral economy would be very difficult. At current debt levels Irealnd is in a very, very, difficult and dangerous postion – and HOPEFLLY escaping that postion wil be sooner rather than later.
In relation to a UI – which was the reason I introduced the topic here – I think it is fair to remark that some* ‘Nationalists’ will probably not vote for a UI if it entails a significant drop in living standards.
To predict a likley date for a UI we probably would need to know not only how the demogaphics will paly out over the next 10 – 20 years – but also how the Irish and British economies will perform and their relataive performance against each other.
That will keep the political anorak on my back for the forseeable.
*We dont know this % either.
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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/james-reilly-pledges-free-gp-care-for-every-citizen-by-2016-29721482.html
Could this to be one less argument against a United Ireland if the republic were to adopt a similar healthcare system to the NHS sometime in the near future?
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thequarantor
Yes.
fc. “Know this; I have not got the answers. ”
I think most will be very well aware of this.
If you have any links by repuatable ‘finance’ people (e.g. economic forecasters, economic journalists) which suggest the levels of Irish devts(household and national) are sustainable – do share – rather than bitching with offerings such as “The remainder above I see as people unwilling to look into things and come up with coherent answers”.
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No it’s a silly argument to say we get free GP cover up here. You pay down there therefore we are better off in the UK. You could also say the South has free third level education but the North doesn’t, the South has much higher levels of Social Protection bla bla bla.
In a UI id like to see free GP care for all except the rich who can well afford it. I would like to free education for those who in later years contribute back to the economy (If you emigrate you are charged for your fees) and a Social Protection system that protects the vunerable, does not give free handouts and that does not disincentive people from working.
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Enda,
‘nationalists’ will judge their standard of living on a range of factors – including health provision and the cost of it. It needs to be recognised that peoples standards of living will be an important determinat of how popular a UI will be.
No research has been done on this – to my knowledge – but it seems reasonable to assume the above as financial considerations are such an important aspect of peoples lives.
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Should we really put our faith in the ‘finance guys’? Aren’t they the ones who got us into this mess in the first place?
Should a border poll ever take place, I would hate for people to make their decision based on the cost of GP visits and the fact that they would have to pay more to get stuff sent from Amazon.
In the event of a UI perhaps we might be better off starting from scratch. New country, new rules. An opportunity to enshrine certain rights in a new constitution. Free ice cream on a Sunday, that sort of thing.
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RJC,
RE. “I would hate for people to make their decision based on the cost of GP visits and the fact that they would have to pay more to get stuff sent from Amazon.”
Would agree with that. But until some one asks ‘the people’ we wont know – and pockets often come before principles in Ireland and elsewhere. It is also inevitable that there would be some Southern resisitance (again we can only ocnjecture at the size of it) to the idea of a UI if the North was going to be seen as somehow a drain on a more prosperous(should that be the case) South.
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There will be far more people in favour of a Re-United Ireland that would oppose it in this part of the country. It’s a gimme that it will entail subvention for some time considering the state of the statelet’s economy – but if economics was the primary criteria for Re-Unification, then the logic of that argument is that we’d all be wanting unification with Qatar.
As regards the Re-Unification of Ireland, where there’s a will, there’s a way.
Shure it’s already started with Martin and Roy to be appointed as the Management team of the 32 county National soccer squad. :-))
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There’s a degree to which those in favour of a UI need to start addressing the current problems with loyalists/fleggers/working class Prods/whatever you want to call them. That section of NI society who feel as if they are being left behind and see violent protest/rioting as an acceptable response. The very notion of a UI is absolute anathema to these people, desperate not to be seen as ‘the generation to fail Ulster’ (whatever that means).
I’m not necessarily advocating a ‘hug a hoodie’ type of approach, but arguably that are serious failings in education and other areas which may well serve to create greater problems in the future. I appreciate that all societies have problems with an ‘underclass’ of sorts but the young LADs of today may end up being something that the ‘New Ireland’ of 2033 is left to deal with.
I don’t think that having to deal with the ‘problem’ of the loyalist working class of Sandy Row, Ballyclare or wherever will be a reason for citizens of the Republic to vote against a UI, but in the event of Re-Unification it becomes less easy for those in Dublin to dismiss them as ‘the crazy people up there’. Steps need to be taken now.
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agree with much of what you said, which is why eurofree3.wordpress.com proposes interim joint sovreignty/governance. have a look at some of the posts on education including “you are not the generation to fail ulster – just the generation to fail exams in ulster”, and on joined up policing to see how things could be started on a positive way forward
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Ben,
I offer very reasonable rates for advertising 😉
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didn’t intend to advertise – Please accept apologies – won’t happen again, I hadn’t time to go through all the arguments. just letting people know they can read them there if they want.
best to all
ben
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Ben,
No problem, feel free to do the odd plug, but at least contribute to the conversation here as well 😉
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In any discussion for and against a United Ireland must also include the economic hindrances of the link with Britain, such as the complete and utter failure to devolve powers to alter corporation tax. Another example is the noises from the Tories over Britain leaving the EU, as example what happens to say the farming subsidies like the Single Farm Payment? That is right they would get zilch as a result.
The reason I mention the EU and Britain’s position is because of the uncomfortable position it puts the Unionist parties painting them into the corner, and having to explain to a few big farmers why they would lose out.
It would not surprise me if Nationalists and Republicans were to call out the Unionist leadership for being Eurosceptic now and in any future referendum on EU membership. I feel anyway that a discussion into a United Ireland has to be framed on Eurosceptic/Eurocentric lines, support a United Ireland and get your payments. Wonder if there is hay to be made from this?
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theguarantor, even if there was hay to be made from this, what are the numbers of farmers on the electoral roll and how many of them are there compared to other interest groups?
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I have no idea what proportion of the electorate they are but this link from 2010 shows the size of farming workforce at that time as 46,900.
http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/index/media-centre/news-departments/news-dard/news-releasesdard-november-2010/news-dard-301110-final-results-of.htm
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-24835384
New number crunching figures released today. The number of elderly people in NI is due to soar over the next decade.
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The NHS is helping keep us Prods alive; first tested on the bionic Queen Mother, now being rolled out across the beautiful North!
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Aye, but the Bullingdon Boys are doing their very best to destroy the NHS. Unionism and the Conservatives make strange bedfellows.
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Regarding the threat to Nationalism, if any, from NI21, what’s wrong with supporting McCrae’s party because you think he’s an honest man with a common-sense approach to the past, present, and future, while also answering “yes” to any pollster who asks if you would vote for a United Ireland. So McCrae is pro-Union. Better to encourage his brand of Unionism than the eye-bulging, steam-from-the-ears type. If and when unification happens, or if it doesn’t, better to have people like McCrae around than the fundamentalists.
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