The next round of Council elections will apparently be based upon the newly agreed boundaries. For those, like me, who like the detail, here is a complete set of maps inclusive of the new boundaries.
Essentially, what has happened is that in the West of the city, the highly nationalist majority Colin Glen area including Twinbrook, Dunmurray and Poleglass reverts from Lisburn 
back into the BCC zone while areas to the South West, Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet, which would be traditionally more unionist in nature are also included.
As may be seen on the right, the areas are geographically small but they are densely populated, particularly in the West.
The most contentious point however is the effect that this will have upon the balance of power in City Hall.
Currently, things are somewhat evenly poised:
24 Nationalists 21 Unionists and Alliance at 6.
Personally I view Alliance as a Unionist party which means only two seats would need to change hands to ensure a nationalist majority. However the new plan is to increase the number of councillors to 60 from 51 so the game changes somewhat.
We know from the Census results that Unionism is now a minority within Belfast, as well as within the six north eastern counties as a whole. Even Unionist politicians have conceded this fact. In fact, they appear to be upset at the prospect. After years of listening to “The majority of the People of Northern Ireland” being shoved down nationalist throats at every opportunity it will be interesting how Unionist politicians react to actually being the minority now in Belfast as forecast by Horseman.
As always things will boil down to votes cast rather than population statistics but I still maintain that the correllation between both is so close that population stats are a very good indication as to what will happen, particularly in 2015.
So what will happen?
Lets look at the 2011 results in the above mentioned wards and combine them with the 2011 BCC results. 🙂 (Here is my post on the Census results from January for comparison)
2011 Election:
BCC:
SF: 28,234 (30.9%), 16 councillors
DUP: 21,353 (23.4%), 15 councillors
SDLP: 12,547 (13.7%), 8 councillors
Alliance: 11,540 (12.6%), 6 councillors
UUP: 7,836 (8.6%), 3 councillors
PUP: 2,570 (2.8%), 2 councillors
Eirígí: 2,062 (2.3%)
Green: 1,320 (1.4%)
WP: 760 (0.8%)
IRSP: 588 (0.6%)
Soc: 434 (0.5%)
TUV: 349 (0.4%)
PBP: 321 (0.4%)
Cons: 103 (0.1%)
Pro Cap: 9 (0.01%)
Ind: 1,274 (1.4%), 1 councillor
That’s 93,481 votes cast.
The Five new wards (Summarised by religion brought up in and total population as a guide) consist of:
Poleglass 94% Catholic 3,781
Dunmurray 80.52% Catholic 4,379.
Twinbrook 89.76% Catholic 2,647
Tullycarnet 85.78% Protestant 2,419
Gilnahirk 81.21 Protestant 2,512.
It should be apparent that Belfast will soon be a nationalist controlled council. I fully expect that it will be run along similar lines to other nationalist controlled councils in that Unionists will have power shared with them proportionally and fairly. I also expect that what is important to Unionists in terms of “symbols” will be given due respect and reciprocated in full by Unionist majority councils.
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"We in coming days may be" 
I would be confident there are 28 nationalist seats but 31 I just can’t see. Alliance to hold the balance still.
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Ok, What would you see as the marginals Ulster Celt?
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If there are 24 nationalist seats already and then according to the figures above 66% of the new population are catholic (ok not all at voting age but even still) not to mention the fact that on the existing borders Unionists are over represented surely 28 is a conservative estimate for nationalists. The SDLP might lose a seat to Alliance in the South of the city but other than I cant see any other losses so I would reckon they will hit 30
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Castle 3 probable 4
Old park 4 slim chance of gain
Black mountain 7
Collin 6
Court 2
Balmoral 2
Botanic 2
Lisnasharagh 1
Orminston 0
Titanic 1 possible loss
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Good stuff,
I actually think Alliance is vulnerable to a strong sdlp candidate in East Belfast around Stormont. I think Titanic is moving nationalist also. The gains will be where least expected
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BD
Alliance have 5000 votes in East Belfast, the Stoops have 200 and titanic does not include ravenhill, Niall Ó Donnghaile will struggle here. Maybe not this election but a nationalist council majority is inevitable.
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There is a history of nationalist voters lending votes to Alliance until a sufficient head of steam is built. I think this is happening in the more affluent parts of EB, not Short Strand.
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I dont much care for language such as “stoops” or indeed “Shinner”.
language like that is more likely to drive a wedge in nationalism than in creating a. Link between the two.
have no access to records at the minute (in bed with flu) but if memory serves the low SDLP vote in East Belfast was at least partly tactical.
Am I right in saying that the same candidate got more votes in Victoria DEA (local elections) than she got in all of East Belfast on the same day?
More Lemsip please.
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Bernie Kelly is the key to SDLP votes in my opinion, if certain SDLP insiders (and Slugger commenters) can actually see the bigger picture and get behind her
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Just checked those figures Magdalena got 207 votes for Victoria in the lg election and only 250 for East Belfast in the Assembly. I understand the tactical voting for the Assembly and obviously Westminster elections but at local elections you can win a seat with very few votes so Nationalists in places like East Belfast and North Down should start to be a bit more selfish and not lend their vote so easily as they may get a nationalist candidate in as opposed to settling for Alliance over the DUP
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Boondock.
Exactly! Sick to the back teeth of saying that.
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Sorry just to reinforce what I just said a quick scan of the results in 2011 showed Naomi Thomson getting elected in Court with the huge total of 237 votes, obviously transfers cloud things a bit but even still it shows that not many backers are needed. I can now see why the clown Jamie Bryson would give it a shot, on those figures even he would have a chance
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Oh Id forgot to add that I see a nationalist majority taking two elections to happen. Unionism will be fighting tooth and nail and might even have a scorched earth scenario.
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I’m intrigued by the scorched earth theory ????
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Unionists wont give up Belfast easily. Its not happening in isolation to the rest of Norn Iron. …Stormont etc. But I can certainly see a scenario where the City Council is suspended and replaced by some kind of Commission.
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I don’t believe the proposed boundaries / number of seats per DEA are set in stone yet. When the new electoral register is made available in December things will become clearer.
Based on the previous register there were significant discrepancies between the number of seats being awarded to electorates in the west and the east of the city. Publication of the new register may serve to undermine these arrangements further.
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Colin is just below the threshold for 7 seats and has a very young demograph. Ormiston and Lisnaharragh are on the threshold margin for actually losing seats. The census figures I believe for age by ward have yet to be released. But there’s the strong possibility in a decade that Collin could have an electorate of 28,000 and be electing 6 councilors and Lisnharragh having 17,000 and also 6 councilors. Lisnaharragh and Ormkston should have 12 seats between them and there is no arguement to support 13.
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It is not only discrepancies between the east and the west. In the 2011 election these were the electorates and votes:
Electorate Votes Cast Councilors
Court 13,445 6,770 5
Upper Falls 20,530 12,796 5
Lower Falls 17,238 10,700 5
Upper Falls elects 5 nationalist councilors and Court 5 unionist councilors but the number of votes in Upper Falls is twice that of Court. Based on the electorate numbers Court should have only 4 councilors and Upper Falls 6. That would be one less unionist councilor and one more nationalist councilor. This will be corrected in the new Court DEA which will be 6 wards with 2 of them nationalist wards that are being transferred from Lower Falls to Court. The public inquiry for Belfast was held in September and the final new DEA’s are supposed to be released no later than December.
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It’s nonsensical to finalise these arrangements before the new electoral register is published – in December.
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BBC had 51 councilors for how many years?
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Are these new boundaries set in stone? Is there somewhere/someone I can write to in order to let them know that I am not happy about a certain aspect of a proposed boundary change?
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If it looks like siginifcant Nat gain(as predicted above from 24 to at least 28 seats) the DUP will do a U turn – like with the Bobby Sands memorial site – quite why the DUP agreed to that – or more pertinently how Marty got Robbo to sign up to it – remains a mystery.
It is equally mysterious why the DUP would sign up to council boundary changes when there are alternatives which are more beneficial to Unionsts.
When the boy Haas returns from whence he came – with things probably worse than when he arrived – the DUP will presumably announce that the political climate is not suitable for such pro-Nat boundary changes.
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The alternative is to keep the boundaries as they are. Nationalists are two seats short of a majority as it stands.
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FF,
re. “The alternative is to keep the boundaries as they are”
That is what the DUP will opt for – political suicide to be seen to be enabling the taking down of the flag on a permanent basis (even if it is inevitable in the long term) – as there is little chance of wider agreement of the issue.
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Ah, but even the old electoral register cannot possibly justify the current allocation of seats per DEA. That is 20 years out of date.
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I think that the DUP take on these issues will vary from place to place. There are parts of the North where the new boundaries couldn’t possibly be seen as pro-Nationalist. Here, for example, is Gregory Campbell crowing over how Nationalist control in Limavady will end as a result of the new Limavady/Coleraine/BallymoneyMoyle monstrosity (surely one of the most indefensible of the new supercouncils):
East Londonderry DUP MP Gregory Campbell believes all unionists should support the proposed changes because it will place Limavady in the heart of a unionist stronghold. He hit out this week at 12 unionist MLAs who voted against the proposed reform of local government, saying “there is no excuse for Unionists voting against new Council boundaries which will assist Unionists in the whole of the Limavady Council area. There isn’t another complete Council area which moves from Unionist control to Nationalist control”.
http://www.londonderrysentinel.co.uk/news/local-news/unionists-to-rule-in-limavady-after-council-changes-1-5565997
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antain,
I presume Stormo still has some approval procedures to fulfill giving the DUP their opportunity to do a Long Kesh style U turn?
If Stormo does still have a role – then any gain in Limavady will surely be more than offset by handing Belfast to the fenians with the implications that has for what might be raised or lowered over city hall and what welcome may be given to sectarian Orange Parades in Belfast city centre.
Jimbo Allister plus assorted Unionist fringe elements (including the UUP) will presuambly try and force the DUP to do a Long Kesh – and they will do this even if these boundary changes were of net benefit to Unionism – in order to politically damage the DUP. All subsequent flag rows will be placed at the door of the DUP.
‘Losing’ Belfast would be a bit like Marty getting the First Minsiter Job in symbolic terms and in actual political terms excellent news for Nats – (notwithstanding the ‘loss’ down Limivary way).
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Representaions have been made – note Belfast nationalists here http://www.deac-ni.org/index/current-review-of-district-electoral-areas/representationsreceived.htm
Belfast public enquiry was held on the 17th september, “Each inquiry will be conducted by an Assistant Commissioner and a transcript of proceedings will be published on the Commissioner’s website.” nothing published as yet.
“After consideration of the representations – written and oral – and the recommendations of Assistant Commissioners who preside over any inquiries, the Commissioner submits a report to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland setting out Final Recommendations.
2.3 The legislation provides that as soon as may be after a Commissioner has submitted a report, the Secretary of State shall lay The report before parliament”
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Thanks for that link U-C. Good to see that the Falls Road Community Council is on the ball.
Click to access falls_community_council.pdf
Concerning other council areas, I think SF is wrong to accept the Armagh, Banbridge, Craigavon super-council proposes. It’s proposed that 41 councillors here will represent an electorate of 139,000 that is bound to rapidly increase given the young demograpg. This new council also has a very large rural component but in overwhelmingly suburban Lisburn-Castlereagh its proposed that 40 councillors will cater for an aging electorate of 93,000. On any criterian can anyone make any sense out of this?
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The area I live in will fall into the proposed ABC ‘super’ council. Not too happy about this for a number of reasons (none of which are sectarian). If anyone knows who/where to make representations to about this it would be greatly appreciated. Not having much luck with Google.
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Does anyone have the electoral stats on which the proposed DEAs are based?
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FF
The report states december 2012. Here are the last published in December 12
Click to access 8a64e074-f6c5-4e45-9252-9b3b6bc889b3.pdf
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Those figures are actually for the existing wards. At any rate, it seems they’ve been humming and ha-ing about the new boundaries for so long that some of the ‘new’ wards could be out of date before they’re introduced!
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Would it not be better to leave boundary’s the same. Bcc will go nat anyway. Why sacrifice Limavady. What would be the gain/loss of control with the new super councils?
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They can’t leave them the same because the old wards are twenty-odd years out of date, whereas the ‘new’ wards are only six or seven years out of date.
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I’d agree with you there navanman. We’re not gaining anything. The new number of council numbers are the Unionists selection. So if they fell through, it would be no great loss, and as Fear F says, the old wards would need to be re-balanced so there’d be a Nat gain and a Unionist loss between Court and Upper Falls for starters.
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Typically inept negotiation from SF. Its not just Limavady that’s sacrificed; Moyle is a nationalist council too which gets consumed by Coleraine.
Then there’s Armagh, a balanced council about 50 votes short of a majority now pushed into a unionist council. A shambles. Would love it to fall through.
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Were Belfast to go green, I think it would far outweigh, Limavady, Moyle and Armagh being placed into Unionist councils. The pyschological impact that Belfast being a nationalist majority city is unmeasurable, and can only be good for Nationalism.
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I agree with that Feckitt however it is going Green anyway and some here still think even with the new changes it wont happen this time (I think it will) so it seems a bit silly to to sacrifice a number of councils for something that is going to happen anyway. If Belfast is Nationalist majority next time the fleggers will go nuts I expect any attempt to ditch the designated days policy put on the back burner for a a bit to avoid the obvious backlash that would happen. The pysochogical impact will be huge and effectively finishes any crazy unionist ideas of repartition in the future
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See P12-3
Click to access deac_prov-recs.pdf
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Faha has kindly put this detailed analysis together of the new wards:
“The new Belfast boundaries are complicated because some of the wards that are transferred from Castlereagh and Lisburn are only partial wards such as Seymour Hill, Derryaghy and Beechill”
All usual residents” “Catholic (%)” “Protestant and Other Christian(%)”
Lower Braniel 2493 4.77 84.04
Lisnasharragh 2126 5.32 85.79
Downshire 2417 10.84 78.32
Cregagh 2090 8.47 78.90
Wynchurch 2190 45.21 44.29
Hillfoot 2561 28.58 63.88
Tullycarnet 2419 3.60 85.78
Gilnahirk 2512 9.28 81.21
Upper Braniel 2248 6.36 83.81
Minnowburn 2226 7.91 83.02
Beechill (part) 1415 8.48 79.00
Derryaghy North (estimate) 5462 93.10 4.71
Seymour Hill (part) 1244 1.79 7.09
Dunmurry 4379 80.52 14.98
Twinbrook 2647 89.76 7.82
Poleglass 3781 94.02 4.50
Kilwee 3164 92.64 5.15
Collin Glen 5899 92.71 5.59
Total 51273 51.33 42.32
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Is it possible to get the community background breakdown for each of the DEA areas for Belfast such as Castle, Court etc so we would have more of an idea who will win what seats as oppossed to individual wards
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Yes, I’ll put them up tonight
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As Promised Boondock, apologies for the delay:
2001 Catholic % 2011 Catholic % 2001 Protestant % 2011 Protestant %
Court 5.1% 8.4% 92.7% 86.4%
Victoria 6.7% 11.3% 87.0% 80.0%
Pottinger 15.7% 22.6% 78.2% 67.4%
Balmoral 40.8% 40.1% 53.0% 50.0%
Castle 44.3% 46.2% 51.6% 47.3%
Laganbank 54.8% 50.0% 37.7% 37.4%
Oldpark 66.1% 65.2% 31.5% 30.9%
Upper Falls 95.5% 92.2% 3.8% 6.1%
Lower Falls 96.2% 91.2% 2.4% 6.1%
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The wards used in the 2011 census are different to the wards used in these recommendations. I don’t know how you would get accurate community background figures. Also can anyone confirm if the next local elections are 2014 or 2015?
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I would concur about the usefulness of such figures. We also need to bear in mind that under 18s, who are more likely to be of Catholic background, are inelegible to vote.
December 2 – publication of the new electoral register – is the date to look to.
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I thought the couincil elections were due in 2015, Europeans are next year and the Assembly rota has been changed so that the next assembly election will be in 2016, maybe they will try and combine a couple together to save money
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“The Secretary of State has agreed that elections will take place in 2014 but the actual date is to be confirmed.”
http://www.doeni.gov.uk/index/local_government/local_government_reform/reform_timetable.htm
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There is a European election due on 22 May 2014 so council elections might take place the same day. However I wouldn’t be surprised if they were delayed to 2015.
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SF in Newry and South Armagh are in all the local papers this week announcing their candidates for the local elections. So they are geared up for May 2014. I hope they are right.
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“I agree with that Feckitt however it is going Green anyway and some here still think even with the new changes it wont happen this time (I think it will) so it seems a bit silly to to sacrifice a number of councils for something that is going to happen anyway. If Belfast is Nationalist majority next time the fleggers will go nuts I expect any attempt to ditch the designated days policy put on the back burner for a a bit to avoid the obvious backlash that would happen. The pysochogical impact will be huge and effectively finishes any crazy unionist ideas of repartition in the future ” – Boondock
Excellent post.
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It would have happened on the old boundaries, and will still happen on the new boundaries. However, we could easily have had a few more areas on the fringes of Belfast added in , to take it back to Unionist control. It is lucky that that is not the case, and if losing Limavady is the price to pay, then I think it is worth it. Having a Nationalist majority on Belfast City Council will be a major milestone on the journey to unite this country. Ulster is doomed!!
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The speeding up of the ‘loss’ of Belfast will surely be enough for the DUP to pull the plug on the whole show – citing ‘lack of confidence in the community’ or similar.
That is of course If further agreement from Stormo is required?
Any arguement about saving money, old boundaries out of date etc will be brushed aside if there is a serious threat of loss of DUP votes – just as per Long Kesh.
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Sammy,
Excuse the “Man playing” but you really are the Worlds greatest pessimist… 😉
You may be right though
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I know it’s a bit of a tired cliché at this stage but really all this fiddling around with boundaries is akin to re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic…..does not help in avoiding the looming Iceberg.
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Munsterman,
That is a very good point.
One of the emerging themes of this blog is how the Unionist majority areas are shrinking both geographically and numerically.
Gerrymandering has had its day
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BD, good point. I suspect moreover that Sammy is, in internet discussion forum parlance, a ‘concern troll’.
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I get the feeling there’s very much a “dog chasing car” going on with Nats and Belfast; it’s great fun to chase but what to do when you get it? I must say that WB has turned into its own little city and that there is a level of community there that means that many of the citizens of the wild west don’t actually venture into the city centre in numbers that would make you think they “owned” it already.
But then, that’s nationalism encapsulated; it’s great to strive for something but it’s a different bugger to do something with it.
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Ally,
It’s your perception that the people of the ‘wild west’ don’t venture into the city-centre in numbers. I just wonder what this is based on- wishful thinking?
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carickally,
With most Nats having given up on the gun that just leaves us just with the demographics to get the job done. I’m not sure your analogy with the dog chasing traffic holds up.
Of course most human behaviour is never that far removed from our siblings in the mammal world (although we often dont care to dwell on that uncomfortable reality) and the canine equivalent of what (will hopefully) happen in Belfast is the staking out of territory by unloading on lamposts.
BangorDub,
re. Man playing – having accused you of being the most over optimistic person on the planet I can hardly complain when you accuse me of the opposite.
Does anybody know if Stormo can still block the porposed changes and what the ‘parliamentary’ procedure/timeframe is. Watch out for Jimbo Allister and his bestest friends in the UUP sharpening their Robbo poking sticks.
ps Perhaps Jimbo will leaflet Loyalists areas telling them that the DUP are faciltiating the permanent removal of the flag.
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So Limavady, Moyle and Armagh (combined population 108,000) will come under unionist control while Belfast will remain a hung council for some years to come. Does this really represent a ‘victory’ for natiionalism?
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FF,
There are various ways to look at it – but I cant see the DUP allowing themselves to be associated with the speeding up of the ‘surrender’ of Belfast.
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The bill is at committee stage,which is due to Conclude 20/2/14. There are two periods of consideration after this before the bill is debated in the assembly to decide whether to pass the bill. The May 2014 date seems a tad optimistic.
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Ulster-Celt,
RE. “The bill is at committee stage,which is due to Conclude 20/2/14. There are two periods of consideration after this before the bill is debated in the assembly to decide whether to pass the bill. ”
Would you agree that both the TUV and the UUP and assortered fleggers will try and embarass the DUP by talking up the greening of Belfast?
If that gains traction a Long Kesh style U-Turn will be on the cards.
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Indeed
http://uup.org/news/2121/Ulster-Unionist-Party-rejects-flawed-proposal-for-reform-of-local-councils#.UmDIPGt5mK0
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Ulster-Celt.
Ta.
Nothing on Jimbo’s(TUV) site I could see – he will undoubtedly be allying himself with UUP position.
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If the current Belfast boundaries were maintained but seats per DEA allocated according to size electorate- a purely hypothetical scenario – the amount of ‘greening’ in Belfast would be the same, if not greater.
If the current proposals are not implemented local democracy will be effectively dead in NI. The alternative is elections based on 1990s DEAs which would be an absolute farce.
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The Unionist Party seem to think that the proposed councils are a DUP/SF carve up. I can’t see that either one are any more likely to get an overall majority in bigger council areas. Sounds like they’re getting their excuses in early.
That twit Elliot has managed to insult their voters in Lisburn, Craigavon and Armagh in the process. Sure why would the DUP need to arrange a carve up when they have Tom sheparding votes for them.
With enemies like that, who need friends!
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Yes Paul, seriously mixed messages coming from the UUP but hardly surprising
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Dub,
Any chance you could cast your eye over some of the other proposed councils – Armagh-Craigavon-Banbridge or Causeway and Glens for instance?
These will be around 40% nationalist by my reckoning.
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Yes, I’m in agreement, the trouble is I’m unsure of the boundaries.
BD
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Click to access armagh_compressed.pdf
Above document includes maps proposed of Armagh, Banbridge & Cragavon LGD. I believe most, if not all, of the current Ballyward ward (Banbridge) is excluded while the Armagh part of the current Killyman ward (Dungannon) comes in.
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Click to access causeway_compressed.pdf
Here are details of Causeway Coast and Glens. I think the boundaries are the same as those of the four present councils.
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Cheers! busy night ahead!
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In the 2011 local election, the total vote for the Armagh, Banbridge, Craigavon area was as follows,
Armagh Nationalist – 11638
Armagh Unionist – 13578
Banbridge Nationalist – 4815
Banbridge Unionist – 12529
Banbridge Other – 892
Craigavon Nationalist – 14022
Craigavon Unionist – 17917
Craigavon Other – 1362
Total Nationalist 30,475. 39.7%
Total Unionist 44,024 57.3%
Total Alliance/Ind/Other 2254. 2.9%
The Banbridge ward of Ballyward goes to Newry/Down. I’m not certain,but I think this is quite a mixed ward, possibly a Nat majority, so should slightly favour the unionist position, but in reality should make little difference overall.
Half the Killyman ward comes in from Dungannon. I think this would be overwhelmingly Unionist, and therefore would boost the unionist position, but we are talking about quite a small area, so again should not make a great difference.
The Nationalist vote in Armagh is growing very slowly, the Nationalist vote in Craigavon is growing much more dramatically. I’m not sure about Banbridge.
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I think part of Moy ward also moves to ABC council – the part that’s on the Armagh side of the Blackwater.
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Any idea how councillors will be elected, STV or FPP? 1 from each ward or or say 5 councillors for a DEA with 5 wards?
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The wards are combined into DEAs of 5,6 or 7 wards. with everyone elected by STV.
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Thanks Feckitt,
Do you know if those DEA’s have been defined already for each of the proposed Councils?
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Yes, for example the Belfast DEAs have been discussed further up this thread. I have cut and pasted this below
Castle 3 probable 4
Old park 4 slim chance of gain
Black mountain 7
Collin 6
Court 2
Balmoral 2
Botanic 2
Lisnasharagh 1
Orminston 0
Titanic 1 possible loss
They have definitely been decided for Newry/Down as well, and I am pretty sure they have been decided for every area. Under the old 26 county system there were 101 DEAs. I now think that this has been reduced to 80 DEAs across the new 11 councils.
Submissions have been sent in for adjustments and ammendments to the boundary commssion proposals, and I think the final agreed decision will be published in December which will in all likelihood be exactly the same as the current proposals apart from minor adjustments here and there.
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I see the final final recommendations are out for the proposed new councils / DEAs
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25357751
I haven’t seen the detail anywhere? Does anyone know if there were any changes from the final but not final recommendations?
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FF,
Many thanks for that, Link is here: http://www.deac-ni.org/index/have-your-say/deac_prov-recs.pdf
I am still blind as a bat so will read in detail as soon as the sight returns to normal. (I have something called “Dry Eye”)
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Final report
http://www.deac-ni.org/index/current-review-of-district-electoral-areas/final-recommendations.htm
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