Over at the “Super Soaraway Sluggerworld” site there have been a number of posts recently on the subject of the current state of the main parties. These have been generally heavy on opinion but light on facts and figures.
The only facts which actually matter regarding political parties are cold hard Votes so I’ve put some figures and graphs together looking at actual performance since 2003. I have only looked at Local Government, Assembly and Westminster elections as it would be a distortion to include EU or by-elections. I also felt a 10 year timeframe would be a good snapshot.
To place things in context it is important to be aware that voter turnouts have been dropping not just here but in most Western democracies for many years. In 2011 the voter turnout was just 54.5%, a decline of almost 8% from the previous Assembly election and down over 15% from the first election to the Assembly in 1998. Historically the North has had a comparitively high turnout but this is unquestionably dropping. Nevertheless, only real votes actually count.
I have deliberately only focussed on the main parties although I am aware of the fragmentation particularly within Unionism. All votes not going to the named parties below are included in the “other” values.
So lets have a look at the performances in numerical terms first:
Or in Graph format:
So what can we see from these figures? DUP and SF both holding their votes very well, Alliance doing surprisingly well although with a very limited Belfast centred spread of voters, UUP continuing their decline and the SDLP also declining although at a slower rate. Below are the same results expressed as a percentage of the total vote:
There has been much discussion and speculation as to what is happening within the total voting blocks, lets have a look at the figures if we put the figures together for the primary unionist/ nationalist blocks:
Now things are getting interesting. We can see that what has actually happened is the following. Over the period the Nationalist parties have increased as a percentage of votes cast by 0.7%. The main Unionist parties have declined by 5.1%, Alliance is up by 4% and the rest by 0.4%.
Splitting this back into individual parties and the changes in actual votes and percentages over the period using the 2003 LG figures as a base makes very interesting reading also. Over this period the total valid votes cast dropped by 30,292:
It would appear that while the overall vote is dropping the effect upon the broadly Unionist vote is far greater than upon the Nationalist vote. Alliance appear to have done well but must be viewed in the context of their smaller numbers and limited spread. The “other” category is virtually unchanged which is surprising given the plethora of smaller, mostly unionist, parties emerging. The next round of elections is not until 2015 so, barring surprises such as a snap general election, we may have a while to wait for the next instalment.
I have more detailed figures should anyone have any queries. Have fun with the figures 😉
"We in coming days may be" 
The election for the new councils is due to be held next may…http://www.doeni.gov.uk/index/local_government/local_government_reform/reform_timetable.htm
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If the LG reforms ever get through but see RJC link below, hence confusion all round
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The collapse of the UUP vote from the 2003 to 2011 Assembly elections is stunning. Almost half of their vote has gone. Not sure how much of that will ever come back.
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Carrickally,
Agreed. It seems to have fragmented to a small degree, possibly to Alliance but for the most part it is just gone
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I thought the next round of elections had been put back to 2016? Maybe I dreamt this. An election being held back a year, with present trends continuing, coupled with 1916 centenary celebrations tugging the heartstrings could prove very interesting indeed.
Next Irish general election may well be around the same time too. With the Labour vote decimated, and unlikely to recover any time soon I wonder who would form the junior partner in a coalition government? Or could FF and FG end up in government together? Strange days indeed.
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Ok, I’m going by this regarding next round of elections:
http://www.nidirect.gov.uk/elections-in-northern-ireland
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I know Wikipedia is, well, y’know but this claims otherwise
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election
I guess the other question is whether the current Assembly can last that long?
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Thanks RJC and Ulster Celt, – both correct of course
I’ll quote the relevant bit from Wiki:
“Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998 this election would have been held on 7 May 2015 at the latest. In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced elections will be held at fixed intervals of 5 years.[1] Clause 7(1) of The Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill, as introduced in the House of Commons on 9 May 2013, specifes that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected”
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2005 was the shut door that the UUP walked into. Trimble has since rightly acknowledged that he made a mistake by staying on.
Interesting though that the DUP’s figure for that year is such an outlier over the whole ten year period. That was pre SAA and the spilt with Jim Allister when they could be all things to all men.
[BTW It would have been useful to go back to 1997 so we could see the SDLP eclipsed by SF four years earlier.]
Apart from a small increase in SF’s 2011 vote what strikes me is the stability in all the parties’ percentage figures between those last two dates. The only consistent upward gradient is in the Alliance party figure.
Two notes of caution:
The press predicted a meltdown for the UUs, which failed to materialise. Nor has the SDLP gone away. Not sure that on the well advertised differential birth rate that a 0.7% differential over ten years is so much a trend as an enduring habit.
And those lost unionist figures are yet not turning up in the nationalist column.
That, for me, is the major design fault in the current nationalist pitch which regularly implies that unionists will just have to get used to being a united Ireland, when it “inevitably” comes.
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What’s the opposite of ‘charming’ again?
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Mick,
The UUP meltdown has been partial to date, the DUP and NI21 may yet carve up it’s carcass next time out.
The Birth Rate differential has stalled but there may have been enough already. Regardless of the figures, UI would still require massive persuasion of pro NI C’s, the South and P’s. That hasn’t really even started, hence few P’s in the Nat column and an APNI with significant C support.
For now, the focus is on equality within NI and a competitive SDLP which helps maximise the N vote would be beneficial to acheiving that. By the time that’s acheived, North and South might not look so different and at some future point, financial implications, a disowning by the British or some unforseeable factor could well make UI the best option for all parties.
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Mick,
I’d agree with most of that. Would you agree that the age profile of the UUP support is generally older? I think they are currently operating with a residual rump or core vote which is, for want of a better phrase, dying off. I see no evidence of them gaining new voters.
Your point regarding “unionist figures are yet not turning up in the nationalist column”. Well I would argue that isn’t the case. As shown above the main unionist vote share has fallen by 5.1% while the two nationalist parties are up by 0.7%. That’s a considerable narrowing of the gap in a ten year period. (I know that is a simplistic view of the figures). There is a 2% gap left to close on that viewing which at face value has probably closed already, given the 2 year gap since the 2011 elections. Again, that comes with lots of caveats but if, for instance, the UUP were to recover and eat into the DUP vote or other unionist parties did the same it would leave SF in a very strong position.
Likewise I think the true Alliance position is perhaps overstated by particular circumstances such as East Belfast.
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Mick,
As requested the 1997 figures (LGD)
SF 106, 934 17%
SDLP 130,387 21%
UUP 175036 28%
DUP 99,651 16%
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Taking an increase in the first figure in a data series compared to the last is not really a statistically sound method to measure a trend. The proper way to do it would be using a line of best fit. You can do this in Excel or OpenOfiice simply by using the LINEST function.
https://office.microsoft.com/en-gb/excel-help/linest-HP005209155.aspx
In this case the formula for the rate of increase would be =INDEX(LINEST(known_y’s,known_x’s),1)
For Bangordub’s given figures this gives a rate of increase in the nationalist vote of 0.01121% per decade. Almost infinitesimally small.
I don’t really see what Bangordub’s figures for unionists, ignoring as they do the TUV, Rodney Connor, Sylvia Herman and the large number of independant and small party unionists is usefully telling us. Figures for the total unionist vote share so far in the 21st century (excluding council elections) are at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Northern_Ireland#Voting_patterns
2001 52.90%
2003 52.10%
2004 48.60%
2005 51.40%
2007 48.60%
2009 49.00%
2010 50.50%
2011 48.30%
In LINEST this gives a rate of decrease in the unionist vote of -3.85265% per decade.
The same figures for the total nationalist vote share are.
2001 42.70%
2003 40.50%
2004 42.20%
2005 41.80%
2007 42.00%
2009 42.20%
2010 42.00%
2011 41.50%
In LINEST this actually gives a decrease, but of a similarly tiny -0.10370% per decade.
While it’s almost certainly going to be wrong, just for fun we can project these rates of change linearly into the future. If we do then we will find that the nationalist vote will overtake the unionist vote in the year 2032, at which point nationalists will have 41.6% of the vote, unionists will have 41.4% of the vote and Alliance and others will have 17.0% of the vote.
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We really need to see the 2001 figures to get the pattern. What actually happens then is that SF and the SDLP flip suddenly, for a variety of reasons. And that remains the biggest single change in the respective fortunes of the two parties. Everything else is very slow decline from then onwards.
One, I’d suggest, is the biggest public powerplay is the dispute over weapons decommissioning, which SF pitched as unionists resisting powersharing. I think a large chunk of the nationalist electorate bought this (including people who did not stop voting SDLP). SF got the focus of the media as the more powerful player of the two whilst Mallon looked weak and was seen to be unable to control his ‘partner’ in OFMdFM.
Two, the aging leadership of the SDLP which had been in prominence since the start of the troubles cut a figure about as impressive as a salmon dying after the long journey home to finally and successfully spawn. SF on the other hand, were fresh having sat for most of that time on the sidelines without the pressure of having to make their plays publicly scrutable on the public field.
Three, SF’s discipline is and remains impressive against the collection of parishes. They had a deserved reputation for hard work at constituency level in those days. People will vote for a hard working brand in Irish politics, to a degree almost completely disregarding other political factors.
None of these factors hold to the same extent any more. On the 0.7 rise, we know the rise in the census was something like (43.76 to 45% Catholic = a 1.24% rise), so the rise in the nationalist vote lags that of the rise in Catholics in the population, by just under half the rate.
On the shift in the younger demographic’s loyalties, I think we’d have to see other figures to confirm that. My memory of the L&T survey hints that the pattern is not holding for the youngest demographics who perhaps see SF as the new establishment rather than the radical outsiders they undoubtedly once were.
That does not mean to say that the SDLP are pulling them in, rather a lot of them seem to be exiting politics altogether. In principle though what you have feeding through the system is a large blip of DUP/SF voters moving up into the more likely to vote segment of the population, which may be the way they eventually crush their smaller rivals.
With this in mind you can see that McDonnell rush to action is rather late in the day. And it may be too late to reverse the longer term trend where people become habituated to voting SF. He’s helped somewhat by SF’s lack of interest in engaging with the concerns of the Catholic middle class.
Tim Bale’s advice to FF last year was [and I paraphrase] “don’t f*** about with reforms, get back into the political game as soon as possible” (http://goo.gl/OC0FPY), and get on with signalling change.
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Good analysis. Can’t argue with any of that.
All of the parties are now desperate to attract that illusive young vote and to be seen as the dynamic party of the future – except the UUP who just want some youngsters to wheel around the geriatric membership.
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“None of these factors hold to the same extent any more. On the 0.7 rise, we know the rise in the census was something like (43.76 to 45% Catholic = a 1.24% rise), so the rise in the nationalist vote lags that of the rise in Catholics in the population, by just under half the rate.”
Bear in mind that 1.48% of Northern Ireland’s population were people born in an A8 country who said that they were either Catholic or brought up Catholic (Table DC2242NI).
Also bear in mind the answer to the national identity question by those born in an A8 accession country. (Table DC2212NI).
British only 4.47%
Irish only 3.22%
Northern Irish only 2.88%
A8 born Catholics cannot be assumed to be a net boost to the nationalist vote. More than twice as many of them call themselves British or Northern Irish as call themselves Irish (82% of them still call themselves Polish, Lithuanian etc.)
Without an equivalent of A8 migration between 2011 and 2021 we can most likely expect the total proportion of people who say they are Catholic or brought up Catholic to be less in the 2021 census than it was in the 2011 census as is normal for almost all European countries including the Republic of Ireland. What that would mean for the nationalist vote is speculative.
If there is a big migration of Romanians and Bulgarians after the restrictions are lifted next year technically they’ll not only dilute the Catholic proportion of the population but will also artificially boost the “Protestant and other Christian” figure used in the census. For NISRA purposes Orthodox Christians are considered Prods.
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I’m kind of repeating what I said above, but I would have thought that running an election campaign in NI whilst the rest of Ireland is celebrating the Easter 1916 centenary can only serve to boost the nationalist turnout/vote. Whether its possible to stem/turn around declining voter turnout remains to be seen.
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I’m not sure RJC. It should bloster SF’s base, but I’m not sure if there’s going a lot of energy around to devote to a revolution which continues to fail it full objective a hundred years later. Especially when there’s not much evidence of people getting a return on their revolutionary punt on contemporary SF (what the free school dinners debate at Stormont from 3.45 on this afternoon and you will flavour of what I mean).
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Mick….can I just say that this “once a day” posting by your newest contributor,is doing nothing for Sluggers reputation. Awful. he makes me look good…almost.
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Mick,
The age factor is important but largely not yet relevant. We all know that it is only over the age of roughly 40 that it becomes important in terms of votes. Currently there is a clear nationalist majority above the age of 40 (38 in 2011 census).
I fully expect another shift in the next round of elections. To be honest the trend, as I see it, is a concentration of unionist votes in an increasingly smaller geographical area. There is a cross community lowering of engagement with the business of voting but that is more damaging to unionism than nationalism in the medium term. You make the point about the relative rise in the potential nationalist vote, that has always been the case to be honest but the difference is that previously nationalist children had little option but to emigrate. That is no longer the case. Family sizes are pretty much the same now but with a much younger demographic profile there is the obvious conclusion that nationalists are having more babies.
I actually think Peter Robinson and others within unionism have copped onto this, hence the nonsense about Unicorns. The smarter unionists are making a serious pitch eg NI21.
Me? I’m afraid I’m an old fashioned unreconstructed republican. Couldn’t give a monkey’s bout religion mind you
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“To be honest the trend, as I see it, is a concentration of unionist votes in an increasingly smaller geographical area….I actually think Peter Robinson and others within unionism have copped onto this [younger Catholic demographic], hence the nonsense about Unicorns. The smarter unionists are making a serious pitch eg NI21.”
In a post, you have summed up the two possible futures of Northern Ireland. Either a loyalist redoubt after a period of “upheaval” or a pluralist or even multi-kulti society.
I know which one I’d prefer but I fear the former is still a spectre.
It’s funny (or maybe not) that a united Ireland doesn’t even register for me. Perhaps it’s at the alternative end of the extremist wing as Ulster’s Alamo. Maybe for republicans (and you’ve poo-poohed the Unicorns in your post), the survival of NI with the current border is the real nightmare?
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Carrickally,
Cheers for that,
Made me think. Perhaps strangely I don’t see the future as some kind of Tricolour waving Nirvana. I honestly believe in the republican ideal of establishing a state which embraces all creeds
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Well known political blogger and activist Ardoyne Republican is advocating a coalition of non-SF Republicans to contest the next round of elections in the north-east of the country. That certainly matches some of the rumours I’ve heard circulating though I’m doubtful of any electoral impact. That said it is odd to see former Labour and Green Party people in Dublin joining Sinn Féin ranks while former Sinn Féin people are joining éirígí or RNU.
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I cannot see any comfort for nationalists except for the joy of watching unionists having their internal spats. I am not particularly excited about unionists vote falling, the lack of a significant rise of the nationalist vote is what is important. Without that rise little changes.
I have no intention of voting, I voted SF since I was able to vote, I am 50 now. They have changed or I have and they no longer represent me. We need a new party for nationalists in order to maximise the nationalist vote.
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While in the 21st century so far the nationalist vote share has been stagnant it is unclear that this won’t actually turn out to be the peak of a slow parabolic curve. It has to be a real possibility that the nationalist vote share will actually start to fall along with the unionist vote share. As time goes on Northern Ireland is only going to have more immigrants, more mixed marriages, more people who say they were not brought up in any religion, more people attending integrated schools, and so on in the future, not less.
The demographic winners at the moment appear to be Alliance, and perhaps if they take off NI21. Nationalist parties could well end up as fellow demographic losers along with the mainstream unionist parties in the long run.
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The more Nationalist parties the better in STV elections, so long as everyone votes all the way down the list.
For ‘First Past the Post’ elections, there’ll need to be pacts. We don’t need any more Margaret Ritchie type parties trying to gift Westminster seats to Unionists.
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I am a Shinner. Which by definition means I am a nationalist and republican. If Éirigi stood in my constituency, I would give them No.1, and SF No. 2, secure in the knowledge that Éirigi had no chance of being elected, but wanting to boost republicans profiles. If perchance an Éirigi candidate was elected ahead of our candidate, I would be unhappy, but not devastated, and it would not deter me from doing the same thing again.
It is all about ideas, not parties for me. Even though I am a party activist.
D
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BD, “Made me think. Perhaps strangely I don’t see the future as some kind of Tricolour waving Nirvana. I honestly believe in the republican ideal of establishing a state which embraces all creeds”
Kind of sounds like mainland GB at its best (without the republican bit), or Canada. And of course both of those places share Liz, a large number of Irish people, either historic or recent immigrants, as well as lots of other nationalities. NI is just lacking the very last one. Perhaps all the Romanians and Bulgarians should be directed here!?
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There is one big fly in the ointment for all these claims of a stalling Nationalist vote, that seems to have been missed or ignored.
I think the fact that the Nationalist vote has risen a least 0.7% while turnout has fallen a staggering 15% since 1998 actually augers well for the Nationalist vote.
It’s my understanding that the 8% drop after the 2011 elections was concentrated in Nationalist electorates and brought Unionist and Nationalist electorates to near parity on turnout figures.
There is plenty of empirical evidence to show that Nationalists drop off voting when there is nothing much at stake or they can’t win and come back in force when there is, Horseman wrote some interesting pieces on it.
FJH is right when he says things are pretty much at a stalemate in the north at the moment with nothing much up for grabs and little incentive to get out and vote. The 2016 elections with the significance of the year and an outside possibility of a Nationalist First Minister could well change all that.
While any surged in Nationalist voting will be met with increased Unionist turnout, because the baseline Nationalist vote has increased and the unionist vote decreased and along with similar turnout rates the result will be very interesting.
In response to Flying Circus” playing around with the census figures it should be noted that the near doubling of the “Other” category from 3% to 6% (roughly) had the effect of masking the rise in the Catholic community and it also accentuated the fall in the Protestant community.
If the “Other” category had stayed at around 3% then the Catholic community would have grown at the 2%+ it had grown at in the 3 previous Census. An even cursory check of the Council area birth rates and school enrolment figures shows that the Catholic population is growing and growing strongly in comparison to the Protestant one.
Also genuine question to anyone that can actually answer it are we actually sure that all these “Romanians and Bulgarians” who have apparently flooded into the north in the last decade all ended up in the Catholic column?
The near doubling of the Other group means these people had to come from somewhere, I find it hard to believe that they are all lapsed Prods.
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I’ll apologies in advance for using the phrase but I think there may well be an ‘X Factor’ that comes into play in the 2016 elections. The year that’s in it, plus the prospect of a Nationalist First Minister are but two. The outcome of the Scottish referendum is another, plus continued carping from UKIP and Tory loons about the UK leaving the EU.
Scotland is the part of Britain which NI has closest ties to, so a UK sans Scotland makes the links with NI that much weaker. In addition to this, if (God forbid) the loony xenophobes that make up UKIP and much of the Tory party succeeded in getting the UK out of the EU where does that leave *cough* ‘our wee country’? Sharing an island with an EU member state, yet part of a United Kingdom that doesn’t include Scotland? That would be weird.
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Ironically Romanians and Bulgarians, being predominantly Orthodox, would end up in the Prod column.
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What are your thoughts on the BT poll? Doesn’t make for good news
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David,
To be honest I don’t pay a lot of attention to BT/ Lucid talk polls. They consistently underestimate nationalist support and what is actually important is how the questions are phrased and the geographical spread of respondents. I would agree with Jude Collins observations here: http://judecollinsjournalist.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/that-bel-tel-poll.html
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I don’t think they’re as depressing as the headline made out. There was about 20% saying don’t know in the ‘UI tomorrow’ question and then in the ‘UI in 20 years’ question, a good 22% said they did want it. That’s broadly in line with other polls, but the huge number of don’t knows shows there are people to be one over. That’s of course, if nationalist society got their thumb out and stopped obsessing over the latest unionist courtroom fashion show and actually took practical steps to advance a United Ireland.
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I believe the recent flag protests and the manifest bad faith displayed by the unionist parties will have the effect of mobilising the nationalist electoral base next time out. What effect it has on unionism is harder to predict.
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Does anyone know how Horseman would have voted?
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A stats and politics man, I’m pretty sure he would have voted all the way down the ballot sheet.
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What party would he have put first?
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http://www.deac-ni.org/index/current-review-of-district-electoral-areas/representationsreceived.htm
Interesting Nationalist representations for Belfast.the consultations/public enquiries where held a few days ago.
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Thanks for the link U-C,
The Falls group are on the ball re the over-representation for E. Belfast and demographic trend differentials between the East and West of the city.
DUP looking to have Clonard thrown out of Court DEA.
Not too much from Sinn Fein outside Belfast though.
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I think it may be useful to do a blog on Belfast in General and examine implications of new boundaries. I’ll kick it off but would need benefit of local knowledge, OK?
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Looked at objectively, Belfast should include alot more of the subirbs.
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What about the UUP trying to get part of Newry lumped in with S. Armagh. Would that really give them enough votes to get a seat there?
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If ‘subirbs’ are posh, prod, suburbs, then I’m sure Peter Robinson would agree 😉
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PaulG, I would have thought that the UUP would have enough votes in South Armagh to get at least one councillor elected without having to transfer parts of Newry Town. They are obviously concerned that their population there is aging.
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Seems anyone can make a submission.
Maybe BD should suggest a N Down DEA with 60% of the seats within the curtilage of his garden.
You never know your luck, he could get that Republic of Free Bangor yet!
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Lol PaulG,
Great idea!
Mind you, wasn’t that the same principle that NI was founded upon?
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Bangordub do you know which party Horseman would have voted for if he lived in NI?
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Here’s his website
http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.co.uk/
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Gareth,
I have no idea who Horseman would have voted for, he was a protestant who actually lived in Belgium and was broadly Republican in outlook in my opinion. I can safely say he’d not be a DUP/ UUP/ TUV Man
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Is there a case for gerrymander allegations
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I’ve said before that Greater Belfast makes more sense than the combination of Carrick, Ballymena and Larne. However, it’s a non-starter as it would return Belfast to a Unionist majority, even with adding in the likes of MountEagles and Mayfield.
Also, a council area of 500k plus residents would rightly scupper the thoughts of having more than three other councils in the whole of NI.
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Actually the whole of the six counties is pretty much a county council
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Yip, a rural and urban council split would make sense.
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When are the final boundaries confirmed? And is it clear yet when the first local council election would be?
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I can’t believe you are comparing figures from different types of elections. That is nuts. Every psephologist or wannabe statistician knows that you have to compare like with like.
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DEA, not necessarily. Elections here rarely come down into the same categories as in the rest of the UK, for example. Rather, it doesn’t matter whether it is council, Assembly, Westminster or Strasbourg, the issue at the poll is the same.
I would say that there would be some people who will happily vote for a local personality in one election but not his/her party in another (I voted for a UUP councillor here but a DUP MLA in the same booth) but I wouldn’t think that trend would be massive. From seeing ballot papers at election counts, it generally runs as alphabetical party colleague A, B and C, alphabetical party colleague 1, 2 and 3 on the papers in county Antrim.
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