Castlereagh council area is a kind of strange, makeyuppy area South of Belfast sort of centred around Carryduff and Dundonald. It has no natural centre and is half in and half out of Belfast. It is essentially a collection of suburbs and housing estates.
It is also, historically, a DUP and Unionist stronghold.
The 2011 election saw the political landscape at Castlereagh change dramatically. The DUP lost overall control of the council losing two council seats, one in Central and one in the East. The UUP also lost their sole representative in East. The Alliance party gained one in East and Central, while the Green party gained in East. There were no changes in the West or South areas, there was much speculation that demographic change would deliver a Sinn Féin a seat in South, however this didn’t happen. The SDLP had the sixth placed runner up, narrowly beaten by the UUP for the fifth seat.
The 2011 results and map were:
DUP: 10,390 (42.6%), 11 councillors
Courtesy of Conall Kelly – Ark
Alliance: 6,142 (25.2%), 6 councillors
UUP: 2,717 (11.2%), 3 councillors
SDLP: 2,681 (11.0%), 2 councillors
SF: 735 (3.0%)
Green: 716 (2.9%), 1 councillor
And so to the Census, figures below as always.
Every single ward saw a decrease in the protestant and an increase in the catholic percentage. Newtownbreda, Knockbracken, Hillfoot and Carryduff have witnessed huge swings. The overall swing was 13% with 10 of the 23 wards exceeding this.
This particular council has a notorious and unenviable reputation for refusing to share power with non unionists (ie: fenians), less than open council dealings and indeed, I haven’t even mentioned Iris Robinson and her “fundraising” for local entrepreneurs or her husband and his pure brilliance at land speculation.
Oh dear. I think I just did, sorry.
| Catholic Change 2011 | Protestant Change 2011 | Swing | Catholic % 2011 | |
| 95II01 Ballyhanwood | 1.5% | -6.7% | 8.2% | 4.8% |
| 95II02 Beechill | 4.1% | -7.4% | 11.5% | 33.8% |
| 95II03 Cairnshill | 3.7% | -7.1% | 10.9% | 46.4% |
| 95II04 Carrowreagh | 2.2% | -8.4% | 10.7% | 4.5% |
| 95II05 Carryduff East | 4.0% | -7.7% | 11.7% | 48.8% |
| 95II06 Carryduff West | 5.2% | -9.4% | 14.6% | 48.2% |
| 95II07 Cregagh | 3.5% | -11.3% | 14.8% | 8.5% |
| 95II08 Downshire | 6.0% | -12.2% | 18.1% | 10.8% |
| 95II09 Dundonald | 3.5% | -8.9% | 12.4% | 8.7% |
| 95II10 Enler | 2.3% | -9.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% |
| 95II11 Galwally | 1.0% | -6.1% | 7.1% | 46.9% |
| 95II12 Gilnahirk | 3.9% | -8.3% | 12.2% | 9.3% |
| 95II13 Graham’s Bridge | 4.7% | -13.6% | 18.3% | 6.7% |
| 95II14 Hillfoot | 8.0% | -11.2% | 19.2% | 28.6% |
| 95II15 Knockbracken | 7.8% | -11.3% | 19.1% | 47.0% |
| 95II16 Lisnasharragh | 3.1% | -8.8% | 11.9% | 5.3% |
| 95II17 Lower Braniel | 1.2% | -6.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| 95II18 Minnowburn | 4.3% | -8.8% | 13.1% | 7.9% |
| 95II19 Moneyreagh | 1.1% | -3.6% | 4.7% | 12.1% |
| 95II20 Newtownbreda | 8.8% | -15.5% | 24.4% | 39.5% |
| 95II21 Tullycarnet | 1.0% | -7.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% |
| 95II22 Upper Braniel | 3.8% | -10.2% | 14.0% | 6.4% |
| 95II23 Wynchurch | 4.1% | -9.7% | 13.9% | 45.2% |
| TOTALS | 3.9% | -9.1% | 13.0% |
"We in coming days may be" 
Good Post BD.
Does Craigavad on the map, match with Upper Braniel in the Table?
Any chance of a total Catholic % column for context?
How have the UUP been voting on the Council. Are they as cosy with their DUP masters as Nesbitt is?
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Thanks Paul,
I need to check that but good point, both wards are adjacent and I have no figures for Craigavad for 2001 on my tables for some reason. 2011 figs are: C14.49% P73.46%.
I will put in the column you suggest shortly. (10 mins) 🙂
The DUP and UUP have a formal voting arrangement on the council put into place after the DUP lost their majority. One of the first signs of what was to follow within unionism and, what I believe may be, the impending merger between the DUP and UUP.
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The map is wrong. Craigavad is in North Down, the far side of Cultra.
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Correct Paul, it should be labelled Upper Braniel.
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Fear, Thanks for clearing that up. Was having a minor panic attack there!
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The increase in Catholic % in Galwally seems to have stalled, but continues strongly in adjacent wards. Not walls. Are the remaining houses in hostile estates, not as good value as Hillfoot houses or just not enough coming onto the market?
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Not 1 and 2 so probably 3.
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The new council boundaries are stupid. Dundonald should be with Comber and Newtownards rather than Lisburn.
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Yes, but whats the likelyhood of those new Councils being set up before the next council elections are due (or ever)?
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Good question – to which I don’t know the answer.
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Table-NI-REL-03 provides a good summaryof demographic change by LGD
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/ni/religion.htm
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Table-NI-REL-03 provides a good summaryof demographic change by LGD.
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/ni/religion.htm
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The Carryduff and Knockbracken should have crept over the 50 % C mark by now. That only leaves the very southern output areas of Moneyreagh and Saintfield blocking a corridor of Catholic majority wards from the Markets and lower Ormeau down the A7 to Crossgar and Downpatrick. And Saintfield has already started to show a sizeable change. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some developments along that A7 stretch though Moneyreagh which might be popular with SE Down C’s working in Belfast but wanting to live just outside the city for easy access to friends, family , sports clubs etc in the towns and villages they were brought up in.
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To an extent that has already happened with Darragh Cross which was only a meetings of roads 20 years ago is now a growing village of 500 odd. the area of carrickmannon around it always had a strong Catholic population for many generations. Crossgar would be strongly Catholic now with a growing Catholic population in Sainftield and Kilmore. Ballynahinch’s Catholic population is up to around 40 percent so you could see Catholic wards stretching from Belfast City centre to the Border within 10-20 years.
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That is a very interesting point
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You can already connect wards from Lower Falls out of W Belfast through Glenavy to Crumlin and Aghagallon, then around the Lough to Washing Bay / Coalisland, over to Ballygalley and meet the Border at Augher. (The only fly in the ointment is southern half of The Birches which outnumbers the northern C output areas of that ward. Unfortunately the recent devlopment at Scotch street (near Portadown) in that ward has increased the P % there )
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And the lack of a bridge at Bannfoot. Paul, this is fantasy stuff.
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Initally I wanted to see what options there were to minimise the number of Nationalists stuck in a hyper P state if we were ever faced with re-partition. As the likelyhood of that secenario fades, it appears that C corridors will form over the next 10-20 years which will leave 10 Orange enclaves against an ever greening background.
Corridors forming from Newry through Lawrenctown to lough Neagh, Rasharkin to the Glens, Downpatrick to Lower Ormeau and Lower Falls to Crumlin/Aghagallon will create the Orange islands of East Armagh-Portadown, Lisburn-Dromore-South Lurgan, East Belfast-NorthDown, Newtownabbey-Larne-Ballymena, Ballymoney-Coleraine-Bushmill, in addition to the existing isolated areas of North Frmanagh, Coagh-Tobermore, Killen-Ardstraw, New Buildings-Artigarvan, Parts of the Waterside with Drumahoe.
As this develops, Protestants will feel less like owners and masters in their own state, moral will drop, P emigration will increase and Unionists politicians will start to make offers to buy off the C middle class, to try to save the Union. This will work for a while. Events will at some point make a United Ireland more attractive, but I suspect there will be a Nationalist majority before then and after having SF run the wee Six for a while, a Fine Gael-DUP Coalition Government might well look like a better option to many Unionists .
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Fear F,
It certainly belongs in the realms of fantasy, and I’m sure and I hope nothing like it ever comes to pass. But when the UDA, UVF or their supporters put together their fantasy Five and a Half county maps, dumping Crossmaglen, Roslea, Strabane and the West Bank, and ethnically cleansing the rest, it’s good to be able to give them an update showing the current starting point and another way their maps could be drawn. It will help them get to grips with their current reality and give them time to dump their re-partition maps and come to terms with the reality of the various shared future options.
But if ever a bridge were needed at Bannfoot, I’m sure it wouldn’t be beyond the talents of our Engineers:)
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Paul G,
I remember Donaldson back in 1998 giving of about Catholics having 60percent of the land in terms of wards. It would be interestting if someone could do a map now to show the two communities share of the landmass in percentage terms. The areas of North Down, Strangford, East antrim are there real strongholds now.Lagan Valley, East Belfast and to a lesser extent North Antrim are not the stongholds that they once were.
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Look at that interactive tool thing the Dub put up.
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I’m sure Donalson would like to have an uban majority, a rural majority and a majority in every small town and village, but thats very unlikely when you only have a little over 50 % of the population.
I think if he looked at a map of who actually owned the land instead of worrying about the pennyless SF voters living in the arse end of the towns, he’d be a lot more cheery. And if he then looked at who owned the wealth generating land, as opposed to who owned the bogland and the stoney hills he’d be dancing all the way to Stormont.
Let them worry about the number of majority Catholic rural wards and draw up maps which appear to chart their reduction to P enclaves. That’s where they’ll be psycologically beaten – even though they still own the place!
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As if Robbo’s ribbon doesn’t extend far enough already!
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SDLP were very close to a 2nd seat in South last time, but the census figures suggest that nationalists should be on the verge of a 2nd seat in West (33.3 % required), though they’re only getting 1.35 quotas as it stands. Age profile, slowness to register in new constituency and the loss of a large number of votes to Alliance are preventing Nationalist from doubling their representation in Castlereagh. Bound to get 1 but should seriously try for 2 more next time.
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The patterns here reflect the parliamentary constituencies with the South Belfast wards tending towards Catholic pluralities and the East Belfast wards strongly Protestant with a small but increasing Catholic population.
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9 non unionist councillors in Castlereagh.
Just gets better and better.
No wonder the Grand Wizards of the Law and Orange Order are starting to shout about Unity.
Maybe their idea of registering voters on the 12th might help.
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Cregagh estate is a kind of boundary between mixed territory and Protestant territory. Going the other way there is Belvoir (and further on again Taughmonagh / Finaghy). The continued loyalist domination of public housing is a massive issue which is seemingly just accepted by the powers that be. Of course it suits unionist politicians that the paramilitaries keep Catholics out.
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It is also now bordered on both sides by majoriy Catholic Wynchurch and more than likely Catholic Ravenhill.
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Castle Greyskull is where He-Man lived you know the good guy. His enemy Skeletor the bad guy lived on Snake Mountain.
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Hoboroad,
lol. I concede your point. But not the principle
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Fair enough BD.
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Isn’t Castle Greyskull a nickname for Ibrox.
Ulster Unionism disappears to come back as Democratic Unionism.
Oldco newco type of thing.
Problem being newco is a lot weaker and thinks back to the glory days without realizing those days are gone forever.
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PT,
Well spotted. My analogy was exactly as you say.
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Things not looking good for Rangers I hear a certain Craig Whyte is back and is threatening to take Mr Green to court.
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Somewhat unrelated but am I the only one who hears the word “Castlereagh” and immediately thinks torture centre? Its almost become synonymous in Hiberno-Irish speech with the image of a “British Guantanamo” – though of course that could just reflect the politicised circles I move in! 😉
I wonder will it feature as a verbal shorthand in future history books the same way Guantanamo might do?
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I always associate it with the eagles nest of Conn O’Neil and his being captured there while eating bainne clabhair.
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The term “Castlereagh” as a torture centre might also be an age thing.
“Stormont” would be another old buzz word.
Antrim, Ballymena and Coleraine are names for the future as the years countdown replacing Ardoyne, Ballymurphy and Crossmaglen in the history books.
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Good point. Don’t forget Lurgan. In another decade will the British media be talking about the “bandit country” of north Armagh?
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Paul G,
Has already started with some Unionist politicos calling Nationalists/Republican NHS destroyers! Me thinks the Tories will do that for us.
FF,
Seen the map but dont’ think it give’s in percantage terms which is what as I was looking for.
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Slightly concerned about an earlier comment about large loyalist estates on the fringes of what has/will become/became middle class Catholic estates.
The UFF/UVF flags go up followed by the brick or worse through the window.
Not forgetting the Blood and Thunder let’s have 50 flute bands round on a Friday night
Many of the white sheet and pointy hat nights attract bigger crowds than a Linfield home game.
A few years back in Derry there was rioting two nights running beside the walls.
Not one paper mentioned a Lambeg Drum competition that lasted 8 hours non stop on the walls.
Would the Catholic middle class pack and leave?
Peace lines maybe?
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If Catholic’s move into formally Protestant MC areas then it is likely that they will be near WC Loyalist areas.It’s Been quiet in areas like ravenhill and Wynchurch and most of their violence has been directed at the WC community in SS as has been the case for the past 100 years.
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which underlines the disconnect between the WC Prod and his MC co religious
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Dub, with the A5 project and the Carlingford bridge on the rocks maybe you could look at those areas next?
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Done! Or will be shortly
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Having looked at the map, am I right in thinking that the 300 houses proposed for the Belvoir Park Hospital site will be in the Dunbo ward of Lisburn rather than Castlereagh or Belfast CC?
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The hospital site is in Minnowburn ward – so Castlereagh. The other ward you refer to is Drumbo rather than Dunbo.
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Right you are Fear F. I’ve got a Dunbo going on in a another walk of life.
I wonder have the Loyalists or anyone else got first dibs on the houses there. Some comments from DUP and Alliance welcoming them and looking for a chunck for Social Housing to relieve Belvoir and Newtownbreda.
If the Loyalists were booking housing estates under construction in Drumbo with huge Union Jacks, they’ll surely try the same thing there.
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While not overly au fait with the area I’d imagine any such development would be religously mixed. I can’t see any pressing case for social housing ‘to relieve Belvoir’ there. The population of Minnowburn ward actually declined slightly.
Where are these new estates in Drumbo?
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I was surprised that the councillors were representing a need for social housing from Belvoir and Newtownbreda, that’s why I put it out there.
The reference to new Drumbo housing, I got from Ormeau.
“Paul G,
The answer to your question about Stoneyford is that loyalists have succeeded in stopping Catholics moving in and to an extent have forced some families out. This is shown by the lack of rise in the Catholic population even though 100s of new houses have been built. They are up to the same trick at Magherlin were they put a massive UVF flag in a large building site on the Moira Road. Again they put large amount of flags in villages that are gaining new housing to try to prevent Catholics from moving in Dundrum, Moira, Drumbo, Glengormely to name but a view.”
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Paul G/FF,
Another big site aroung that area is the Knockbracken site. Ritchie wanted to put 1500 houses on that site as well as business units. In addition they were plans for 11000 houses for the Carryduff area in the last area plan. Frazier has applied for 1500 homes in the last year for that area.
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11,000 houses! Jesus, they’ll be building a Cathederal and renaming it Carryduff City next.
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FF,
I would say that those belvior houses will be likely private and Belvior estate is very settled with very little need for much new housing.
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The Housing crash of 2008 has held all these projects up but will not stop them indefinitely.
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Some local perspective which may be helpful and also some of my own thoughts/ insights that may be completely off the wall.
There are some plans to builds houses in Carryduff but it may be quite a while before that number are built, more liklely to be the region 1,000. Over the last number of years a number of in-fill developments and apartments have been built. A more significant housing development of Marlborough is now due, of around 100+ houses I think. As Fraser moves his attention from FourWinds to Carryduff there will be an increase in the number of houses built with 400 behind Baronscourt and another 400/500 from Marlborough the the Mealough Rd. The local school St Joseph’s’s has 2 classes per year and has been very static in terms of numbers but I would expect to increase if those houses are built. It’s an excellent school btw.
The main house building in the area has been in the Four Winds area primarily at Bracken Hill whose impact can be seen at St Ita’s which has now 3 classes per year and which has been approved for extension – it is also a very good school. Before St Ita’s split from St Jo’s there were generally 4 classes per year, so you can see there’s been an increase in numbers.
Carryduff is an interesting area in relation to the C/N community, which may partly explain the under-rep of nat votes; there is a mixture of W/N Belfast overspill (and FJH is righ to some degree some of those are now ‘more respectable sympathetic to Alliance’, plenty of mixed marriages, a number of security/establishment Catholics and a significant number of former ‘country’ gleps (there’s plenty of GAA Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry tops). You can see the rural origins in the co-location of the parish hall, school, church and GAA club. The school has quite a soft Irish feel to it; Irish is taught in the 1st two years, Irish authors, music and charities are the mainstream fabric of the school. Incidentally this is why Letsgetalongerists are opposed to when they focus/promote ‘Shared’ schools and why the Moy concept is such a threat & danger to their campaign.
This is an area which is prime SDLP territory and in which SF has little resonance, despite the soft green nature of some of the former Belfast people they are there to be won. It has been Alliance however that has been the more active and visible presence, the SDLP have improved under Alastair and there have been more leaflet drops but I feel it is still poor and are missing votes through inaction & lack of a good local profile. Alliance have a good local rep (it seems to be churchy end of Alliance) which helps their cause.
If the SDLP got it’s act together there should be an extra seat at the Council and should also help them in the S Belfast. Frustrating tho…
Although I would agree with others that Carryduff is nearing 50/50 it certainly doesn’t have that feel and the talk of corridors to nat areas is misplaced. The hinterland, farms and businesses are all Unionist. Carryduff (and S Belfast?) is still regarded as Unionist by the Unionist’s themselves.
It may be of interest to know that the council ensures the fleg flies 365 days a year at the Leisure centre, local dump and the famous Carryduff roundabout. Whilst the council provides one GAA pitch; it’s the worst pitch and uses old rugby posts – they’ve ticked the equality box. The cross-community initiative run by the council a while back involved the local protestant churches – the catholic church was missing. An indication perhaps that Unionists cope best with the Irishness in their midst by ignoring it.
The manner in the way the DUP/UUP reacted when their domination of the council was threatened provides a wider example of where these parties are going. In the council they are one bloc but at elections they are still two parties. The gameplan would seem to have discussed at a certain country house – organised by the previous SoS, informal/formal party talks as indicated by DBurnside; with the gameplan being, with the changing demographics, to ensure they maximise Unionist rep in the Assembly, retain FM post and maximise number of ministers –all leading to a Unionist dominated Government.
From the British perspective their selfish goal is stability and their best bet for that is to ensure Unionist remain the top dog and that the nationalist vote is minimised through converting enough Catholics onto a soft unionist/statist position – hence their promotion of a ‘Shared’ future, Northern Irish identity, using BBCNI to promte NI/NIrish and a rainbow alliance (pun intended) of like minded people (hats off to FJH), slugger, Startegem, Alliance and JRF. This strategy also entails the detoxification and curbing of the worst excesses of unionism. That bit is not working out too well. The worst option for the British is that the communities will end up 50/50 with Unity a real option, as they figure this will lead to instability and that is what they to avoid over all else. I believe any briefing to a SoS would be along those lines.
To it seems obvious to me that M Nesbit is positioning and preparing his party for bi-party approach at the Assembly elections much like that adopted at the local council level. He needed to get rid of internal opponents – done, he has run ‘joint’ candidates with common values in seats (where together they may make a gain if they ran separately) and in unionist areas both parties will compete thereby maximising the unionist vote. I would bet that both parties have been examining the law for the assembly on how they can be treated as one bloc for the purposes as D’Hondt. The carrot that the UUP leadership will hold out is that if they act as 1 bloc they get the first 2 picks thereby delivering Education into Unionist hands. I may be wrong on this but…. maybe I’m not.
Isn’t it strange that nationalists spend a lot of time thinking, analysing and commenting/debating on Unionist politicians and the U community generally, has anyone noticed that that never really happens on the other side. Should we instead be concentrating on a tactical plan for increasing the all-Irish profile (pride & practical expression) within the 6 counties and attempt to frame the political debate in an exclusive Irish context? Lastly apologies if I’ve gone off tangent for this thread and nature of the blog.
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A lot of food for thought there, Drumbo.
Would there be many blow-ins from South Down in Carryduff? It’s ideally positioned between Belfast and ‘home’.
Gotta love the development names. Marlborough – where do they think they are? Is there a Blenheim up there? How about Kensington?
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Drumbo,
You are well on tangent for both the thread and this blog. Could you please explain the “Moy Concept”?
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Well that’s as definitive an apraisal of the politics and religious demographics of a town as we could have hoped for, not to mention the intrigueing wider political theories.
Have you any similar local knowledge of your namesake village/ward ?
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Surely he’ll be posting that analysis in the Lisburn thread. 😉
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I believe he’s refering to this
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21959048
Two schools sharing premises but maintaining a distinct ethos.
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Cheers 😉
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Disappointed to hear Irish is only taught in first two classes in Carryduff. Time for a multi-denominational Bunscoil Cheathrú Aodh Dhuibh!
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Spot on Moy. There’s few blow-in’s from S Down, I know people who travel into work from Crossbar, Darragh Cross and Downpatrick. If anything people move the other way further out to Darragh X and Saintfield. The names are fun, it’s the norm- very ‘shared’ e.g. Baronscourt, Winchester, Meadowvale, Thorndale; four winds areaish has primrose hill, beechill, Finsbury, myrtledene and even Kew gardens. Just lovely, our own home counties! Brings a warm glow to the heart 🙂
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In Bangor we have “the Cotswolds” FFS.
Talking of such cultural “neutrality” the roads around the lower Falls tell a similar story
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In fairness to the ancien régime they didn’t really have a problem with local names, e.g. the HE estate in Carryduff is called Killynure. The obsession with out-Englishing the English seems to be a more recent thing.
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I believe there’s a Royal Lodge as well. Perhaps this was where Conn O’Neill hung out!
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Carryduff is more ‘Glengormley of the south’ than Home Counties – although Ivanhoe never made it to Glengormley.
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It’s called “the Moy”!
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