Newtownabbey is made up of parts of both East Antrim and North Belfast Westminster constituencies. In the 2011 council elections the party strengths
Picture Courtesy of ARK website
were:DUP 12, UUP 5, Alliance 5, SF 2 and SDLP 1. It may surprise people therefore that the census returned the following results, clearly alliance are doing very well here. primarily at the expense of nationalist representation.
Catholics 20.9% (+19.4%)
Protestants 69.4% (- 5.7%)
The actual figures are:
| Catholic | Protestant | Other | None | |
| 2011 | 19204 | 57688 | 1006 | 7241 |
| Change since 2001 | 3717 | -3274 | 651 | 4054 |
Below is the Ward by Ward changes since 2001. Of the 25 Wards below all except 3 have shown an increase in catholic background residents. Mallusk is the most striking to my eye. I wonder how Nigel Dodd’s outreach efforts are progressing? On this evidence he’ll need some success on that front.
| Catholic Change | Protestant Change | |
| 95WW01 Abbey | 4.6% | -11.5% |
| 95WW02 Ballyclare North | 0.5% | -5.4% |
| 95WW03 Ballyclare South | 1.0% | -8.6% |
| 95WW04 Ballyduff | 1.9% | -7.5% |
| 95WW05 Ballyhenry | 4.5% | -9.8% |
| 95WW06 Ballynure | 1.3% | -4.6% |
| 95WW07 Ballyrobert | 1.3% | -5.5% |
| 95WW08 Burnthill | -0.1% | -5.3% |
| 95WW09 Carnmoney | 0.5% | -5.6% |
| 95WW10 Cloughfern | 2.4% | -8.4% |
| 95WW11 Collinbridge | 2.3% | -4.1% |
| 95WW12 Coole | 1.8% | -9.5% |
| 95WW13 Doagh | 1.5% | -6.6% |
| 95WW14 Dunanney | 1.3% | -8.7% |
| 95WW15 Glebe | 3.4% | -7.2% |
| 95WW16 Glengormley | 3.4% | -8.3% |
| 95WW17 Hawthorne | 2.2% | -5.9% |
| 95WW18 Hightown | 5.7% | -10.7% |
| 95WW19 Jordanstown | 3.8% | -8.6% |
| 95WW20 Mallusk | 11.6% | -15.2% |
| 95WW21 Monkstown | 3.7% | -11.4% |
| 95WW22 Mossley | 0.4% | -6.4% |
| 95WW23 Rostulla | -0.5% | -6.8% |
| 95WW24 Valley | -0.8% | -3.3% |
| 95WW25 Whitehouse | 0.1% | -6.9% |
"We in coming days may be" 
Mallusk is in the south antrim constituency…..
I believe Nigel Dodds will be safe for a few more years, especially when he is chosen as the agreed unionist for north belfast. depending on the numbers of councillors to be elected to the new councils the new DEA for Antrim and Newtownabbey (antrim line) will probably see a loss for nationalists
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Ulster- Celt,
You are of course correct about Mallusk 🙂
I’m not so sure about NB. I have looked at the ward/westminster info here: https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2013/02/05/
It looks pretty close to me (At least until we can cross reference with ages)
Of course an agreed unity candidate will change the whole ball game
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Massive house building going on in the mallusk ward. It has been happening for the past 10 years.
The hightown road is the dividing line between mallusk and colinbridge ward. The vast majority of the house building has been going on in the urban strip of the mallusk ward bordering the hightown and hydepark roads.
There are plans to build 350 new homes on the hightown road beside edmund rice and the gaelscoil. That side of the hightown is in the Colinbridge ward which happens to be the North Belfast seat.
There are also more plans to build several hundred more homes in Ligoniel which of course is north belfast. Interesting times ahead.
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Where else are there significant housing schemes in motion/planned in N. Belfast?
Duncairn is showing a large demographic shift towards Catholics. New housing estates or new people in old houses?
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Not sure of any more as it looks like Girdwood is never going to happen.
In Mallusk there is another 2/3 years building of Aylesbury 6/7 years in Blackrock. There is also plans to build 500 homes on the greenbelt side of the hydepark road opposite Blackrock down towards Mallusk itself. Whether these get passes or not is another thing.
However slowly but surely greater belfast is changing.
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Girdwood is a feint, It is drawing the eye of Nelson while development proceeds elsewhere in my humble opinion, classic tactical skills
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You can see where a lot of these developments and changes have taken place using google earth. I think the default images for Ireland are around 5 years old given the state of the Aviva stadium.
However you can also view the most recent image or go back to 2001 using ‘historical imagery’.
Use the slider as some images may be better than others but only months apart.
Girfwood for example you can see before and after demolition.
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Two can play at that game. Maybe not with the Doctor but perhaps if/when Mclone takes over.
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A lot of Newtownabbey is in S Antrim – all of the rural parts, Ballyclare, Carnmoney area including Ballyduff and Mossley / New Mossley, Mallusk. Whiteabbey, Jordanstown and Monkstown would be E Antrim.
The only DEA where there is nationalist representation is Antrim Line (Glengormley). Two (out of seven) seats are SF and one is SDLP. SF narrowly missed out on a seat in Macedon DEA – Bawnmore / Longlands do not yet produce enough votes to elect a councillor, though with increased housing in the area that may change. University DEA is never likely to elect a nationalist councillor – there may be some votes in Whiteabbey / Jordanstown to help Oliver McMullan hold his Assembly seat. Ballyclare DEA – do Alliance even stand a chance there?
Regarding population, it has dropped for nearly all the urban wards. Jordanstown and, most dramatically, Mallusk is where it’s increasing. The growth in Mallusk includes the developments near the Hightown Road which would be predominantly nationalists as well as new development along Ballyhenry / Ballycraigy Roads which would be mixed but mainly unionist.
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The increase in the catholic % in Mallusk is also very important when you consider the population of this ward has increase by 3000 or so and building has continued apace in the last 2 years.
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Mallusk All Catholic Protestant Other None
2001 5371 1776 3347 34 214
2011 8338 3724 3928 111 575
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You should add the 1991 census figure for Mallusk to see the difference over 20 years.
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Oakleaf,
I’ll take that advice, a twenty year comparison would be very instructive. Thanks for the suggestion. Ill post up the Mallusk info asap
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Total Catholic Protestant Other None
2011 8838 3724 3928 111 575
1991 4059 404 2451 581 623
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Probably Alliance are too embedded here over the years. Their main man Billy Webb is now in his mid to late 60s and was originally elected as a Ratepayers member. I’d expect to see a certain Paula Bradshaw (now on the Alliance Party Executive) and Ian Parsley (now on the East Antrim Alliance Executive) to launch/relaunch their political careers (sic) which should add to the gaiety of the nation.
University DEA should be interesting. The levels of nationalist students being encouraged to get registered there rather than in Coalisland or Armagh will be interesting but necessarily this population is not embedded.
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Is this for real? Most UUJ students opt to live in Belfast.
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They certainly do. But there has been a campaign to get those resident in the area to register. At least one of the nationalist candidates standing in University DEA in 2011 was a student at UUJ.
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Judging by the number of votes received by SF and SDLP candidates the campaign was a failure!
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http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/school-census-20122013.html
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BD,
The 50 or so Social houses that perhaps may be built are small beans compared to the 200 plus that are being built in Bawnmore. The large amount of private housing that was mentioned previously will have no imput from McCausland at all. A little boy with his finger in the dyke is all his efforts are achieving.
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The simple truth is that they have to live somewhere and social mobility is driving the demographics as never before. Nelson and Nigel are still playing 1950’s politics.
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BD,
Dont forget are Polish friends as well.
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Our Polish friends have a relatively recent memory of totalitarian rule and a supremacist mentality. The burning of a Polish poster and flag last year was not missed
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Indeed and to Sammy, Trevor and Billy they are still Feenuns…. all the best
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Don’t beat me about the coupon for this – is BAwnmore not in East Antrim? (runs for cover)
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I believe it is in the North Belfast constituency, here is the relevant map:
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This is a funny constituency, it kind of reminds me of Craigavon but about 20 years ago when we first moved there; mainly Protestant especially in the country areas however Catholics move into new estates and appear to have lots of children and they need and want more housing in and around these new estates. I wonder will it pan out in Newtownabbey much like it has in North Armagh?
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FC,
The city part of N/Abbey would be split 1/3 Catholic to 2/3 Protestant and would be increasing its Ctaholic population. If they zone land on the Hightown road between Ligoniel and Collinbridge they could aleviate the North/West Belfast housing crisis and give Kelly the seat. This willl be fought by the DUP of course.
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It will be fought, i imagine. They are still fighting the battles of many years ago. God love them but someone needs to explain in simple language that it doesn’t work anymore
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Agreed Ormeau. It’s a nice part of Belfast Lough, good links to town and Jtown is there too so it’s to be expected some Catholics maybe from the countryside or North Belfast would want to move there though I’d imagine some won’t like this turn of events. I wonder whom…
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I could see a lot of the PUL shipping out to Carrick, Bangor, Ards, Larne over the next 10 years to be with their own people. The North even in relative peace is getting more divided between the two communities.
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Check out the population tool in that interactive mapping-tool. It shows which wards are growing (or declining in pop.) and by how much. A lot of growth in Conlig, Millisle, Ballywalter, Portavogie, etc. Not quite so obvious what’s happening in Co. Antrim, though seeing as this thread is about Newtownabbey district, it’s worth noting that Ballyclare and surrounding villages have all been expanding.
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Even Larne is developing its nationalist areas, just looking at the map it looks as the Seacourt area is greening, (just up the road from Boyne Sqr too), and it also looks as if the town has a substantial percentage, strange given that Chinatown is no longer as Catholic as it used to be, and even so 3 streets would hardly make that impact?
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I didn’t know Larne had a Chinatown. Is the harbour there full of junks?
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No – that is Antiville – tha Harbour is different again.
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Cld I request that the Dub fella do Lisburn next.
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No problem FF !
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And can I request Coleraine?
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Keep up the good work BangorDub. Great Blog. I just recently discovered this blog at the time of the census being released. I used to follow Horseman’s site. The key to this remaining an interesting and entertaining site is to keep the eejits off it, which somehow you seem to have managed. Slugger and particularly politics.ie are almost impossible to read because every thread ends up in a slagging match. Adh mor.
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Many thanks for the kind words Feckitt (I have to admit I had a Fr Ted moment typing that !!!)
As I’ve said before I have no illusions that I’m the worlds greatest blogger, far from it, and I have a way to go before I could aspire to being as incisive and shrewd a commentator as Horseman but I do know that the quality of the comments here is very high. I do have a policy of not tolerating gratuitously abusive comments but, by and large, I have not had any problems in that regard.
The worst I’ve had to endure is a thumbs down campaign a few blogs ago 😉
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