Ah, my favourite constituency. North Down is the rebel constituency. Full of well educated, non conformists who refuse to do what we’re told. I personally am friendly with people of a unionist background who are quite republican in their views and refuse to be told who to vote for. Fantastic. It is also populated by an overwhelmingly unionist and pretty elderly electorate. We all know that it is the pensioners who vote in the greatest numbers so that is why the age profiles will be crucial here when they are released
This is the most Unionist constituency in this part of the world and as the unionist migration to the east continues it will remain so for some time to come. I have a long and ongoing dispute (good natured I may add) with FJH regarding the potential for nationalism here. At this time there is not a single nationalist councillor much to my annoyance.
And so to the figures. Holywood and Bangor West are generally regarded as the nationalist areas albeit as minorities. Get ready for a major shock.
There are 25 wards. In not one are catholics a majority. Never have been.
In 21 of those 25 Wards the catholic percentage has grown since the last census.
UPDATE: I should add that the percentage actual 2011 figures are as follows:
| Catholic | Protestant | Other | None |
| 10681 | 57809 | 914 | 9533 |
| 13.5% | 73.2% | 1.2% | 12.1% |
The changes are below. I deserve a pint now and if FJH dares to argue as to why a nationalist seat is not there for the taking I will move to Craigavon and start a party of my own 😉
| Catholic % 2011 | Protestant % 2011 | |
| 95XX01 Ballycrochan | 0.6% | -3.8% |
| 95XX02 Ballyholme | 1.5% | -5.8% |
| 95XX03 Ballymaconnell | -1.8% | -5.6% |
| 95XX04 Ballymagee | 1.9% | -7.4% |
| 95XX05 Bangor Castle | 1.1% | -9.4% |
| 95XX06 Bloomfield | 1.3% | -9.7% |
| 95XX07 Broadway | 1.6% | -8.3% |
| 95XX08 Bryansburn | 1.7% | -5.2% |
| 95XX09 Churchill | 2.3% | -7.1% |
| 95XX10 Clandeboye | 0.2% | -7.4% |
| 95XX11 Conlig | 1.3% | -8.8% |
| 95XX12 Craigavad | 1.4% | -5.7% |
| 95XX13 Crawfordsburn | 2.2% | -8.1% |
| 95XX14 Cultra | 2.7% | -7.1% |
| 95XX15 Dufferin | 1.5% | -7.8% |
| 95XX16 Groomsport | 0.2% | -5.6% |
| 95XX17 Harbour | 4.6% | -12.0% |
| 95XX18 Holywood Demesne | -0.5% | -7.8% |
| 95XX19 Holywood Priory | 0.3% | -4.2% |
| 95XX20 Loughview | -3.0% | -4.7% |
| 95XX21 Princetown | 2.6% | -7.9% |
| 95XX22 Rathgael | 2.8% | -8.3% |
| 95XX23 Silverstream | 3.5% | -11.1% |
| 95XX24 Springhill | 2.1% | -8.4% |
| 95XX25 Whitehill | -0.2% | -10.3% |
"We in coming days may be" 
Given the demographics I presume any Nationalist candidate would ideally have to be SDLP or an agreed Independent? Any likely candidates? I don’t know the area. What are things like on the ground in terms of organisation for SDLP and SF?
Haven’t the Greens and Alliance scooped up a few of the likely SDLP-leaning voters in recent years?
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Séamus,
Four questions there, briefly, I agree that an SDLP candidate would have the best chance of success here. Sinn Fein have no presence at all that I am aware of but the SDLP persist in running the same candidate who has pretty much no profile whatsoever outside Bangor West (Bryansburn) and who receives a derisory vote over and over again. I have posted on this previously: https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/the-sdlp-and-north-down/
Most nationalists do indeed vote green or alliance. There is simply no viable other choice.
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Maybe an agreed Independent Nationalist candidate, then, with SDLP (and quiet SF) support? Or would that draw Unionist ire?
Looking at Wikipedia and the North Down Westminster constituency the Greens certainly seemed to have gobbled up the SDLP vote since 2005 for Westminster elections.
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Perhaps, although being the place it is, I doubt any formal pact would gain traction. It would actually be counter productive in my view. All that is needed is a credible nationalist candidate, probably mildly green, but with a solid reputation for constituency work and a profile. Some form of organisation would be helpful.
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You could be cheeky and claim the Greens are a nationalist/all Ireland party although from what I gather thats a bit of a sensitive point among some Northern members who would like the Northern Greens to be more ‘separate. SDLP at assembly elections are represented by the ulster-scots enthusiast Liam Logan but that doesnt seem to impress the good ulster-scot folk of North Down much as he only gets a few hundred votes. I think its the usual problem for SDLP, organisation and putting in the hard work door to door. The other problem as mentioned elsewhere on this site is nationalists only seem to get involved when they start to believe their man/woman might win. SF are completely absent here I dont even think the Sf guys wife votes for him judging by the lack of votes Therefore it is fair to say that catholics that do vote vote Green, Alliance or even for the moderate independent unionists such as Sylvia that thrive here. This is not earth shattering news really when we consider the areas most famous catholic is non other than the great Rory who has no problem claiming he feels more British than Irish and good luck to him.
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Boondock.
Absolutely correct analysis. What is needed is a professional, committed, organised political operation with a credible candidate who delivers on the ground for constituents.
Simples 😉
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Well, that rules out the SDLP then.
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Trouble in the camp 🙂
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The census shows that 606 people came from East Europe since the last census. There were 10600 people of Catholic background in 2001. The East Europeans are about 6% of that number. Hence assuming the East Europeans are mostly Catholic then the increase in North Down is entirely accounted for by this immigration.
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In North Down that is of course.
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Of course assuming that all Eastern Europeans are Catholics, who completed census forms in which they declared themselves as Catholic, would be foolish – but then you have your agenda to push.
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Hi Fear: I assumed mostly Catholic; we will see when the cross tabs come out later in the year!
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You said that the increase in the number of Catholics could be “entirely accounted for” by Eastern European migration. This is patently nonsense.
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What I didn’t say was “all Eastern Europeans are Catholics” which is what you accused me of initially.
I did indeed say above that the increase in the #Catholics could be entirely accounted for by the immigration. However I was misinterpreting the % figures that Bangordub had presented (I thought they were % increases in the numbers of catholics, rather than changes in the % catholics). So I modified my position in my 11.57 reply to BangorDub.
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No, you merely implied that based on a mistaken interpretation of statistics.
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Factual, I think you may be getting mixed up with your figures.
The figures for North Down are:
Catholic Protestant Other None
2001 9604 61431 434 4880
2011 10656 57782 947 9551
Change 1052 -3649 513 4671
I think you are saying that the 606 Eastern Europeans are responsible for the above changes?
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Hi Bangordub. I misinterpreted your %; not all then, but still quite a lot of the increase is due to immigration from EU accession countries.
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In Dublin we found that between the 2006 and 2011 censuses there was an increase in the number of catholics (though they fell as a share) but all of the increase in the number was attributed to immigrants. This is what CSO reported in one of their documents. So I recon similar trends are affecting the six counties. Though moreso Craigavon (where there are a lot of Poles) than affluent North Down.
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Do you have stats to back this quesionable assumption up? Do you understand that there are some big differences between Dublin and Lurgan? Have you ever been to Lurgan? Feel free to respond on relevant thread.
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BD,
Of course I welcome any geeening of North Down and elsewhere – but surely there should be a question mark over these figures for 3 reasons.
1) Immigration
2) The secularisation of Ulster society – especially amongst ‘Protestants’.
3) The tendency of some in North Down from a Catholic background to see themselves as ‘more’ British than Irish(e.g one noteable former sporting resident).
I’m not for a moment suggesting the census figures should not be so analysed(and I am an avid reader) it is just that in the presentation of the figures and in their interpetation headlines and statements like – North Down is greening – needs to be heavily caveated or you leave yourself open to a charge of wishful thinking or propagandising.
…and talking of matters green – great win for Ireland in the ruggerball.
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We must be careful to allow protestants to share the colour green with us. Whether it is rugby or football the colour should be irish not political. In this post, the assumption is that Catholic=Green which is wrong.
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Rugby is the outstanding, though not perfect example* of green meaning Irish in its widest most inclusive sense – and an example which should be followed as far as is practical.
*they should however drop the Irish anthem and other politcal trappings at home games.
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Yes of course I agree about dropping political trappings. The Irish Rugby is a great probably one of our best examples of sharing.
I was also alloding to the fact that the NI football team – supported by many protestants – plays in green too. So it should be seen as a colour to mean Irish in a broad and wide sense, not to mean catholic.
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However the assumption is implicit in your post, which says, in somewhat patronising terms, that we must allow Protestants to share the colour green with us, whoever non-Protestant ‘we’ may be.
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Sammy,
Your 3 points are all very valid. Yes, there are major caveats and one of the major points from this census is the increasing secularisation. I would imagine that there are large numbers from a catholic background who view themselves as entirely non-religious now.
North Down is a place apart however and what struck me most was the increase across the board. None of this means a thing of course unless it translates into votes 😉
As Fear Feirsteach notes below it is at a snails pace but from a very low base.
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Sammy,
Great game of Rugby, thoroughly enjoyed it, particularly Zebo and Bod’s display and Gilroy did very well too (the Bangor lad), he had a fantastic few crunching tackles in the second half. Needless to say I disagree profoundly with you about dropping the anthem although I would be open to alternative suggestions. “A nation once again” for example?
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We already have an alternative anthem (Irelands call) which should be used on its own home and away – excuses that it not a good song(which it isn’t) are self serving.
To expect Ulster (Unionist) players / supporters to engage with what they consider to be a foreign anthem is at a minimum – the height of bad manners.
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Yes that’s exactly right Sammy.
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Sammy, here’s a thought.
Instead of 3/4 of the population of this island bending over to do what they think might please the other 1/4, I think it’s high time the 1/4 tried to engage with the aforementioned 3/4 and explain why exactly we should change anything and what exactly they are offering in return. Fair enough?
So far we have changed our Flag from a green background with a gold harp to a tricolour incorporating orange and our constitution to accept the illegally created statelet. Where is the quid pro quo?
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BD,
“Instead of 3/4 of the population of this island bending over to do what they think might please the other 1/4, I think it’s high time the 1/4 tried to engage with the aforementioned 3/4 and explain why exactly we should change anything and what exactly they are offering in return. Fair enough?”
We need to persuage the other 1/4 of the merit of our project, failing to show good manners in how we conduct our affairs and not showing generosity even in sporting matters is no going to help our case.
Ussuns need to show leadership in these matters.
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We already have a shared rugby anthem – Ireland Call – rugby is one of the areas where sharing seems to be working reasonably well with protestants catholics and others cheering along together.
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Sammy,
There comes a point in all matters where all parties need to demonstrate good faith. The Flag issue shows little effort so far on themmuns part. In fact I cannot think of a single example that does, can you?
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BD,
re. “In fact I cannot think of a single example that does, can you?”
You should set your standards by what is the correct thing to do not by what themmuns do. The IRFU have an opportunity to do things properly and have made a pretty good effort – I would like to see them do even better.
If you have been to any Ireland games and observed how the fans from all 4 provinces get on without the least consideration that there are 2 juridisctions it is surely a model for all ireland cooperation not only in sport but elsewhere.
…the fact that some loyalists are blocking roads and causing sirpatrickmayhem on the streets is totally irrelevant to that.
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Sammy,
I refer to my single question, can you think of a single example of where an act of generosity on the part of unionists has taken place towards nationalists has taken place in the last 10, 20 or 30 years? one example please. Then I will answer your question about changing our national anthem, fair enough?
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BD,
Any political refernce that I make you will (probably) disagree with – because you will define such acts as necessary or a result of coercion e.g. Trimble signing the GFA and putting what Unionists consider ‘terrorists’ into government.
But lets go with a relevant example like the efforts of the IFA to attract Nationalists to Windsor Park by clamping down on sectrianism and appointing Gerry Armstrong (from the Falls Road and ex GAA player as ambassador).
I dont think the IFA have done enough and there are still multiple problems in that regard but a new anthem is under consideration and of course soccerball fans are infinitely more difficult than dealing with Ruggerball fans.
As I say you should behave properly and show ldeaership towards your fellow countrymen if and when you are lucky enough for such opportunity to arise – ruggerball is one such opportunity.
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Sammy,
By generosity I meant an act unforced as a gesture meant in a spirit of goodwill. In other words, as you say, uncoerced. If you think the Gerry Armstrong experiment or Windsor Park anti sectarianism thing has been going well please enlighten me.
It is only in real examples of leadership that advancements have been made. Ruggerball being a perfect example. I watched the match with proud Ulstermen, unionists too who delighted in the game and the result.
I am pretty much at the end of my tether though with unrequited acts of leadership.
I believe unionists would recognise it as chamberlainism…
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BD,
First you asked for
“There comes a point in all matters where all parties need to demonstrate good faith.”
“In fact I cannot think of a single example that does, can you?”
So lets stick to that shall we?
I have given you 2, Unionists signing the GFA and Windsor park anti-sectianism. Not perfect examples but good examples.
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…without pinhead dancing.
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Sammy.
1.Windsor Park. Are you serious? Come on, be serious.
2. GFA I asked for an example of GENEROSITY. Do you really want me to argue this one with you, there is only gonna be one outcome but I will if you wish
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the whole point of unionism is that they don’t want a united ireland, they will not make concessions until it is inevitable and they want to maximise there presence in the new dispensation. There is nothing to point to and their will not be for a while.
The only reason nationalism makes concessions is because nationalism wants to win them over. if consessions from our side will win them over is debatable. if one fig leaf gets 0.6% another 6% then so be it. The point is to build a republic for all. As long as we don’t have some collins coming back swearing an oath to the english crown i think i’ll be happy.
if the anthem is going to be changed please make it a good one. have never been to a rugby game have heard they sing fields of athenry. if thats true then its sorted.
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The ‘greening’ of North Down appears to be taking place at a snail’s pace – unless of course BD was referring to the election of Stephen Agnew.
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Hi Fear: It will be interesting to see if Stephen gets re-elected next time. He has a good profile as a party leader and if re-elected they can look to add another seat in Belfast or Greater Belfast.
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I’m guessing that the reason Loughview ward has lost 800 people is due to a reduction in troop-levels at Palace Barracks. It appears a disproportion number of troops based there in 2001 were Catholic.
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Does that make them “Emigrants” ? 😉
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A number of these aliens have been succesfully returned to their country of origin. The remainder are still watching you!
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I’ve put Sammy’s point out to twitter for an answer.
1 single point of generosity shown to nationalists by unionists in the last 30 years or beyond….. any ideas?
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None
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Bangordub @Bangordub
I’ve asked a friend for 1 single example of unionist generosity in the last 30 years 2wards nats. can any1 help him?
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BD,
Before we move on to to pinhead dancing in relation to ‘generosity’.
You originally asked for one example of good faith(see below). Are we agreed that signing the GFA and the anti-sectarianism are 2 examples of good faith?
This was in response to my suggestion that the IRFU should further refine their policy. Whataboutery in relation to flags etc is irrlevant.
“Sammy,
There comes a point in all matters where all parties need to demonstrate good faith. The Flag issue shows little effort so far on themmuns part. In fact I cannot think of a single example that does, can you?”
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Sammy,
“You originally asked for one example of good faith(see below). Are we agreed that signing the GFA and the anti-sectarianism are 2 examples of good faith?”
No not at all. There is no evidence of either were entered into in a spirit of good faith.
If I am wrong please supply evidence
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“There is no evidence of either were entered into in a spirit of good faith”
Finding this a bit bleak to be honest. Are you talking about the negotiations for the GFA or the vote Dub when you say there was no generosity? What exactly does an unconditional act of good faith look like? Can you cite a nationalist example so we check the standard?
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Otto,
A simple example is nationalist controlled councils rotating the mayorship
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BD,
Your substantive point was adressed – it now looks looks like a bit of quibling( as per otto’s post.)
Rugby is a joint (North South) venture and is in essence politically neutral and is an excellent example of Iirishness in a very inclusive way – we should be looking to improve it and use it as a template.
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And I’m a bit confused that Rugby is given as an example and contrasted with flag flying. Is the addition of “Ireland’s call” to the Irish State Anthem and Flag the standard we’re supposed to aspire to? If it is the equivalent’s just flying the North Down council crest alongside the Union Flag at Bangor Castle while blaring out GSTQ on the loudspeakers.
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When the tricolour is flown alongside the union jack then I think we can talk. The flag argument is one for another time
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Sammy,
I am still awaiting an example of unionist outreach. Just one?
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A simple example is nationalist controlled councils rotating the mayorship
The late Tony Hill was Mayor of North Down. He was Catholic. Does he count as ‘green’ in your taxonomy?
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I havn’t heard of him! will look him up.
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Come to think of it we’d need a “cross-community” song for Bangor on the loudspeakers as well to match Ireland’s Call. How about Star of the County Down?
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BD,
re’ “A simple example is nationalist controlled councils rotating the mayorship”.
You can kick this back and forward – I could say designated days for flag flying on Stormo”
IRFU should adopt a policy similar to SF in realtion to flag flying – ie either 2 flags or no flag. In fact the offical IRFU policy is to play GSTQ when plasying internationals in the North (which they embarrassingly backtracked on).
In the interrests of fairness and common sense they should change their policy.
But answer me this- would you like to see the Irish rugby team having GSTQ played for them? Becuase if the answer to that is no – then I suspect like me you would actually be in favour of changing their policy?
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Otto,
I’m all for an agreed anthem.
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I just dont think nationalists have to concede ground every time. Tell my why we should
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I haven’t heard of him! will look him up.
Tony died last year Dub. The funeral mass packed out St Comgall’s. He was well loved.
http://allianceparty.org/article/2012/006340/ford-pays-tribute-to-alderman-tony-hill-who-passed-away-this-morning
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BD,
re. “I’m all for an agreed anthem.”
There already is an agreed anthem – the issue is the IRFU deciding to play another one when in the south and in theory another one GSTQ in the north.
So can you confirm if you are infavour of playing GSTQ if and when internationals are played in the North e.g. in a redeveloped Casement Park if Ireland’s bid for the rugby world cup is successful?
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“There already is an agreed anthem”
Most people seem to agree it’s a bit of an embarrassment.
Btw. Does anyone else find themselves humming ‘In the Navy’ after SUFTUM?
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Thing is, rather than being embarrassing, it really is something to be proud of. The two traditions on the island sharing a team, sharing an anthem. That’s actually something to be proud of; and something that gives hope and inspiration.
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Ok. It’s just a bit manufactured for my taste. I do appreciate the principle though and I know that people are emotionally invested in it now.
I’d have Be Thou My Vision as our sporting anthem. Perfect ethos, ancient, Gaelic yet universal. Even beats Jupiter and “World in Union”.
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Yes Otto that is not a bad idea. Its not the tune itself, its the idea (or as you say principle) that I think very inspiring.
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Right Dub. On the tangential subject of Irish hymn writing monks and your fellow feeling for Bangorians (bearing in mind that Bangor was a base for Scots/Irish missions back and forth across the water).
When you’re stretching your legs away from counting baptismal certificates on your computer and you find yourself on a sunny day standing on Ballymacormick Point looking out at the Mull of Kintyre, the Aisla Craig. the hills of Arran and the coast of Dumfries and Galloway is there not a bit of you than wonders whether the imaginary line you want to install across the inner sea is really more legitimate than the one we have now?
Why do you think people 300 miles away in Kerry should have more say over what happens in Bangor that people 20 miles away in Portpatrick?
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otto,
If and when the referenda go the right way and Alex and Gerry are having a friendly chinwag their thoughts may well to turn to thoughts of Dál Riata v 2.0.
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Only met Tony once, but he confessed himself a fan of the family business.
I can’t believe it fell to Sammy (‘the messer’) to call time on the nonsense of this thread. This constituency (and I know it well) is the nearest thing to England on the island of Ireland. So the drops you are seeing in the Protestant population is the secularisation we’re seeing over there.
The drop in Loughview and Holywood may be cross community marrying, or social mobility, or perhaps in the case of Loughview, some freezing in the early to mid naughties when Loyalist paramilitaries were on a local rampage.
All this kind of nonsense does is give people false hope.
It is possible one day that a nationalist seat will come out of North Down, but only when there is a platform that suits exactly the kind of misfitting North Downer that Dub describes. And it’s a lot closer to Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown than West Belfast.
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I pointed out there was a drop of amost 800 people – or 19% – in the total population of Loughview ward. The most plausible explanation for this includes a reduction in the number of troops stationed at Palace Barracks.
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Yep, that is *an* explanation, or at least it could be part of one. Most squaddie kids went to Redburn Primary, which once had about 800 kids going to it. It’s been flattened in the last few months.
Few of them, even before the troubles went to St Patricks, and officers kids were always sent down the road to Craigavad to keep them separate.
But it wouldn’t explain the drop in Demense or the merest of rises in Priory. Still think intermarriage, social mobility (big number of Columbanus parents are now sending their kids to Knock or Sullivan, wee mac being case in point) and secularisation is hitting us earlier than the rest of NI. Youse have it all to come.
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The changes in the Holywood Desmesne and Priory wards are statistically insignificant and are adfequately explained by the factors you have mentioned. The changes in Loughview are of a different nature and require a different explanation. So the school to which army families sent their kids to has been bulldozed. This validates the first part of my thesis. The second part of my thesis – that a significant percentage of the 2001 garrison was Catholic – remains unproven. However if I were you, I would not be so quick to dismiss it.
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I didn’t dismiss it. What i think is interesting is the core Catholic zone (or what passes for it in ND) is not growing Catholics. That’s not statistically insignificant. Another fact could be the difficulty of buying a house in Holywood for older Holywood families, so they may be moving to other parts of ND (thus the rise elsewhere).
Sammy,
If the cap fits, etc etc… 😉
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Check the numbers. Holywood is ‘growing’ Catholics, just not at an especially fast rate.
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Micko,
re. “I can’t believe it fell to Sammy (‘the messer’) ”
Your some cheeky fecker – not content with oxtering-me-oot of your own patch of interweb…
otto,
re. SUFTUM, cant help but think there is the merest hint of Unionist defiance about it – does it have any poltical baggage in its lineage?
.. I’ll be giving it a good blast at Twickers.
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Interesting that we in Dublin (and 26 counties generally) are experiencing falling proportions (if not absolute numbers) of Catholics – the share of Catholics in the 26 counties has fallen census on census in recent years. Its down from its peak of 94% Catholic to 84% Catholic in the recent census. It would have fallen in absolute terms were it not for immigration, in fact.
A recent newspaper article sums it up quite well:
http://www.thejournal.ie/regious-statistics-census-2011-640180-Oct2012/
This is the bigger picture of Catholic percentages island wide.
Presbyterians in the 26 counties are up – and are only 60% irish born!
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I noticed no-one in the comments there thought the journalist’s “there are 26,000 presbyterians in Ireland” sounded a bit on the low side. Does anyone in ‘Ireland’ ever call their state ‘the Republic’ or is that just something we do up here?
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Hi Otto. When talking about the census we mean Ireland to mean the state not the island. What is interesting is that “There are 24,600 Presbyterians in Ireland, with Irish making up 62.8 per cent.” That is, some 37.2% of Presbyterians in Ireland are not Irish – that church has been really boosted by inward migration. Interesting!
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Please get it into your head that the north is not the same as south Dublin or wherever it is you come from.
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Hi Fear
True to say that social developments in the six counties often lag a long time behind what happens in the 26 counties, but there are wider worldwide forces at play in the 21st century that the south is experiencing now – e.g. the secularisation as the % of marriages that are Catholic plummets and the rise in the nonchristrian and non religious population – and that the six counties is likely to experience in due course.
Now, the good folks on the North Down golf courses and the Garden Centres of Mid Tyrone can tend to think they live in a little bubble but it is my thesis that these wider trends will catch up with them too, eventually.
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“True to say that social developments in the six counties often lag a long time behind what happens in the 26 counties”
Like the advent of contraception for example?
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I don’t think so Sammy. I just associate it with the Village People.
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Secularization is certainly happening in England and in Ireland but lets not forget the census in Northern Ireland has the Brucie bonus community background question. You can be a lapsed Catholic or Protestant but your community background cant change. The big rise in the other grouping is more likely among the young ie those children from mixed marriages and also non-christian immigrants
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High Boondock worth pointing out since you make that point that they don’t ask directly about background, they ask what *religion* you were raised in. And since a lot of parents aren’t taking their children to church any more, there has been a lot of people now not brought up in a religion.
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You do understand that you don’t have to be a daily communicant to have you child baptised? And that the vast majority of lapsed Catholics still observe the social / tribal necessities when it comes to baptising children? Or perhaps you just don’t understand the north at all – seeing as you’ve never actually been here.
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Yes I do understand that – which is why secularisation is greater among the protestant than the Catholic population. Still, its happening in the 26 counties. The CSO data show that the proportion of all marriages in the 26 counties that were Catholic stood at 94% in 1994. It stands at 68% in the latest figures. People moving away from observing a religious social convention of marriage and going for civil marriages.
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At risk of repeating myself, that means absolutely nothing in the north.
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Fear Feirsteach
Factual is on what I would call a “learning curve” here
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Hi Bangordub
This is all about conversing and us *all* talking and learning I hope! We in Dublin do not have all the answers. That said, I think that there are severe problems in the six counties and that people who live there can learn a lot from how other societies handle division.
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Factual resolutely refuses to contemplate learning anything from anyone. Noting the implications of demographic change hinders the pointless business of patronising Prods and so should be strenuously discouraged and denied. 😉
So where do the numbers lead us next?
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Factual,
We Dubliners agreed and voted for people in the six counties to agree amongst themselves to elect their form of governance. That was a move away from the undemocratic formation of the state in the north in 1921. That deed is done. You would benefit from listening rather than lecturing my friend.
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Fear Feirsteach
As we have seen recently, the changing demographics are what drive change.
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Yep, changing demographics led to a council where nationalist councillors outnumber unionist councillors and to the ‘compromise’ vote to fly the Union flag only on designated days only – and to the ‘unionist alienation’ we have witnessed since. I think even Mick Fealty would be hard-pressed to deny that.
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And what is the problem with that? Others have detailed in great depth the overwhelming unionist ethos across belfast. I have no problem with a democratic vote
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Problem is, the rag gets to fly seventeen days too often, including St Patrick’s Day. Perhaps demographic change – and fresh elections – will sort that out.
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Exactly.
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Good to see you crediting Horseman in your posts btw. I’m sure he’d approve of your efforts.
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Just back in action so to speak and a lot there to get my teeth into,
Otto, If I may say as a Dub the thought of Kerrymen calling the shots is as appalling to me as to you. Only the thought of Londoners or home counties Tories calling the shots appalls me more. Is that what Alliance would prefer? Or perhaps a form of joint rule?
I think most Northeners like me empathise with the Scots. The experience of Scottish people under British rule is a topic of much discussion at the moment.
Micks points about Holywood I cannot dispute
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I was more interested in how you saw your fellow Bangor folk Dub.
I do have some sympathy for the position I think you’re taking.
If I understand it you’re looking at the position of the protestant community in the South and asking why can’t that be the position of the Northern protestant community in a United Ireland – effectively the reverse of the existing situation with prods retaining ‘Britishness’ in a prod education/cultural mirror of the catholic/GAA set-up and perhaps the right to UK citizenship. I see that you might think the only way to achieve that is through the breeding program as that avoids any need for ‘patronising’ or ‘conversion’ or what your retrobate friend calls “Conflict Resolution”.
Where I think you’re reckless and frankly out of order is that you can see the damage the existing set up has done to NI and you’re happy to continue to do nothing about that until you reach 50%+1. You don’t seem to appreciate that you’re really just planning for repartition.
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Why do you wish to be patronised by Irish nationalists, Otto? Sure, it’ll only increase your blood-pressure. And who’s going to bankroll rump ‘Ulster’ Mark 2 now that Eugene TerreBlanche is gone?
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Happily I don’t see integration and “conflict resolution” as patronising Fear. I see it as the natural synthesis of a new identity for this region – one that might let us reach the stage where we can make a reasoned decision about our common constitutional future as a grown up and united community.
If all you read there was “turn us all into an homogenized Brit-lite pink goo” then you and I are probably going to stay in different camps.
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Great discussion. To call something patronising is often a right wing defence-it denies that better is possible. I think if you look outside the bubble of the six counties what you see is a lot of people accepting different outlooks and to some extent enjoying the difference. Sharing doesn’t mean dilution, except dilution of “entry barriers” to each others traditions and cultures.
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Perhaps it is sometimes. However to call you patronising is no more than to state the truth. That’s coming from someone ‘inside the bubble of the six counties’.
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Over a hundred comments on North Down who would have thought it! A couple of hours ahead of you boys and girls so I missed the late night exchanges.
A few points
First of all the debate abou secularization, I talked a little about it last night in my opinion those talking about it are basically trying to say that the huge drop in the Protestant community background figures is explained simply that all these Protestants have lapsed and moved into the other category but will still vote for Unionism. This may be the case for some but the most recent beltel/Lucid poll actually had people with no religion voting more for nationalist parties with SF being the most popular party among this group.
Mick Fealty talks about false hope. I think he is missing the point we are not waiting for a 50+1 scenario tomorrow and quite frankly most nationalists like myself are probably happy to remain in the union as long as Northern Ireland continues to green and become more neutral. In terms of North Down we may not have a nationalist councillor or Assembly member ever but if we have more politicians from the Green party, Alliance or more moderate unionist independents then that will help the process.
Finally I read somewhere the dredded repartition word – Thankfully the chance of that happening has long gone. Even the most ”logical” new border would result in a large protestant minority (30%) having to join the Republic and the New Northern Ireland itself would have a large catholic minority (30%) not to mention the large geographical area of the Glens, so the problems would just continue.
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Good post boondock and great discussion generally, folks. It does strike me from the discussion the importance of placing the six counties in the broader context of this island where there is a decline in the proportions that are Catholic island-wide something that will catch up inside the North sooner or later. The number of people in Ireland (26 counties) that got married in a Catholic ceremony fell from 94% in 1994 to 68% in 2009, and these sort of figures are bound to be more than just a 26 county phenomenon. The proportion of people in Ireland taking the 32 counties as a whole that are Catholic is certainly now falling – the two censuses tell us that – and that does suggest that the concept of the two religious communities ignoring the gap in between is becoming untenable. Increasingly there are many religious communities and there is a large ever increasing non religious community.
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No-one is ignoring ‘the gap in between’. You are however are intent on ignoring reality. 1. Northern Ireland is, as it was at its inception, a sectarian headcount. 2. Conditions in NI are not the same as in the 26-counties and never have been (see 1 above). 3. Both the ‘Catholic by religion’ and ‘Catholic by community background population’ of NI continue to rise – and that would have been the case irrespective of the Poles and Lithuanians turning up on our shores.
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Hi fear. Interesting hypothesis. Considering the six counties, the catholic by religion only went up by less than 1%. We will have to see if you’re right if this would have risen even without the Poles when the breakdowns come out, but if so then I conecture only by the narrowest of whiskers!
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It has been demonstrated already in this very thread when you had to ‘modify your position’ after misleadingly trying to spin the stats. Forgotten already?
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Hi Fear – yes of course I remember but that discussion related to North Down only (which has relatively few polish inward migrants), my comments at 10.13 related to the six counties as a whole.
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Oh, so North Down has ‘relatively few Polish immigrants’ now!? What you mean is fewer than you needed in order to advance your agenda – which is to deny the implications of demographic change, despite recent events in Belfast and elsewhere. I believe Boondock’s stats disprove your thesis for once and for all.
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2001 census had 737412 of a catholic community background, 2011 census had 817385 of a catholic community background, an increase of 79973.
The total for all foreign born in Northern Ireland ie EU (excluding GB and Ireland), EU accession and other is 81453.
Its safe to say that a) they are not all catholic and b) many were about at the last census something I cant confirm though on the ninis site as there are no country of origin stats.
Therefore there has been an increase and considering the last 10 years has been economically the worst period for 80 years with huge emmigration from the west of Northern Ireland then any increase at all is remarkable. It will be interesting to see the figures at the next census when the economy picks up with less emigration and maybe a number of those who left coming back what the difference will be.
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Hi Boondock; interesting figures which remind us that there was such a big increase in the population in the six counties over this period – in absolute terms. Regarding migration remember that the period 2001-2011 taken as a whole was a period of net in-migration as the emigration phase happened relatively late in the decade – real (as opposed to financial) effects of financial crisis weren’t until 2009. There was a remarkable period (from 2004,5,6 in particular) when inward migration from new accession states was very big both north and south. Regarding your figures, these relate to absolute numbers of Catholic by community, and it’s clear that there was an absolute increase. I would argue that the key thing is the share and my hypothesis is in terms of the *share* of Cathoics by religion, which only increased iirc 0.75% in the census in the six counties. It will soon be revealed whether this share was mainly due to new arrivals, because data on this will be presented in the next 12 months or so. Regarding the south, our absolute numbers of catholics also increased, but this was entirely due to new arrivals, and even with them the share of catholics fell!
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Perhaps you should really be commenting on a site about demographics in the 26-counties as you seem obsessed with the 26-county census.
Trying to prove that the percentage of Catholics in a total NI population *augmented by immigration* only rose because there were Catholics among the immigrants is a dishonest exercise – an attempt at statistical sleight of hand.
If you want to discount Catholic emigrants, you also need to discount emigrants of other faiths and none.
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Hi Fear
Interesting post. I think that the six county demographics should be seen in wider context of the island of ireland as a whole and indeed in the context of these islands generally.
My thesis is that were it not for immigration then the proportion of Catholics by religion would have fallen. That might be a question you think irrelevant – but CSO ask and answer it in one of their documents so it is not just me who is interested in it!
I realise that my thesis is quite narrow but I do think that it points to a bit of secularisation as well as the importance of migration in extrapolating to the future, and that is certainly what the wider picture in Dublin and London shows where population movements and secularisation are ahead of what is happened so far up north.
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You think they should be – or you think it can be. Big difference. NI is a place apart. We are still emerging from a 30 year civil conflict. Trying to argue it is just like the rest of Ireland or GB for that matter is glib in the extreme, partilcuarly coming from someone who once came to Belfast on a bus-trip.
North Down is the NI constituency most prone to the secularising trends you are pining for and you have been forced to concede that the Catholic population there has risen both in absolute terms and in percentage terms.
Your thesis is DISPROVEN. Now give it a rest.
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Immigrants rather than emmigrants.
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Morning Ladies and Gents,
New post going up soon transposing the ward data onto the Westminster constituencies 🙂 BD
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http://m.u.tv/News/Jamie-Bryson-was-football-mascot/f654445e-620d-4dc0-9a38-d90db2908cc1
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Reviving this one and getting back on topic Conlig has put on some 2000 people. Who are these people and where are they coming from?
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