Today the ward by ward information has been released at last from the 2011 census. The results are, in my view, startling. I have reproduced below the changes since the last census in 2001. The highlights as I see it are the following:
Of 52 Wards, 38 have swung towards a catholic majority by an average swing of 11.3%. the rest have become more protestant by an average of 2.6%. This is a stunning turnaround in a ten year period by any measure.
The wards with the largest changes are:
CHANGE 2011 Protestant % Catholic %
| 95GG20 Duncairn | -26.4% | 18.0% | |
| 95GG50 Woodstock | -23.4% | 13.2% | |
| 95GG37 Ravenhill | -20.4% | 14.1% | |
| 95GG44 The Mount | -21.4% | 12.2% | |
| 95GG10 Blackstaff | -19.9% | 10.8% | |
| 95GG11 Bloomfield | -17.9% | 11.0% | |
| 95GG29 Island | -19.8% | 8.6% | |
| 95GG32 Legoniel | -13.8% | 10.6% | |
| 95GG24 Fortwilliam | -13.7% | 8.4% | |
| 95GG36 Orangefield | -14.0% | 7.7% | |
| 95GG43 Sydenham | -14.4% | 6.1% | |
| 95GG19 Crumlin | -11.6% | 7.7% | |
| 95GG03 Ballyhackamore | -12.1% | 5.6% | |
| 95GG13 Castleview | -10.1% | 7.0% | |
| 95GG28 Highfield | -11.4% | 5.3% | |
| 95GG15 Cherryvalley | -9.8% | 5.6% | |
| 95GG30 Knock | -10.8% | 4.0% | |
This is a preliminary look at the figures. Lots more work to do 🙂
The only wards where protestants increased over the ten year period are:
| 95GG25 Glen Road | 1.0% |
| 95GG47 Water Works | 0.4% |
| 95GG07 Beechmount | 2.4% |
| 95GG22 Falls Park | 1.5% |
| 95GG46 Upper Springfield | 2.1% |
| 95GG02 Ardoyne | 1.9% |
| 95GG12 Botanic | 0.2% |
| 95GG01 Andersonstown | 2.6% |
| 95GG27 Glencolin | 3.9% |
| 95GG18 Clonard | 3.8% |
| 95GG48 Whiterock | 4.1% |
| 95GG35 New Lodge | 5.4% |
| 95GG21 Falls | 4.8% |
Hmmm, is there a common thread there?
"We in coming days may be" 
Some of those are a bit unbelievable right enough. You should crunch the north and south belfast wards together with their castlereagh/newtownabbey wards to check the constituencies themselves.
I’ll be awarding prizes for the prettiest pictures too.
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I think what you are saying is to project this onto the westminster constituencies. I agree. The figures were released in a different format to the last census and I will do as you suggest but it will take me a little time, thanks Charlie
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Different wards require different explanations. There are a variety of factors in play. Immigration is but one of them.
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Immigration and mixed relationships I would say regarding the slight increase in prod population in Republican west and North Belfast.
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Regarding east belfast you have a mix of students staying on in Belfast after finishing university and moving across the river and eastern European immigration into the area.
The most interesting results will be in greater Belfast in the wards of Lisburn, Castlereagh and N’Abbey.
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Forgot to add these wards with a slight increase in the protestant population might be due to catholics moving out of west/north Belfast in large numbers to the Lisburn and Glengormley/Mallusk areas.
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What is happening, in my opinion, is exactly what the DUP are trying to prevent, the catholic expansion outwith the ghettos to the suburbs. North, south and, interestingly, east Belfast are greening. As Seamus says the west is won. I just didn’t expect the greening of Belfast to happen so fast
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Those wards in North Belfast are very interesting
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charlie BD.I thought the westminster constituencies are already done and easily comparable for 2001 and 2011. I was looking at them earlier unless I made some stupid mistake. Im busy with a grumpy baby at the moment but Ill have a look again first thing in the morning if the boss isnt looking – the boss being my wife lol
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Lol Boondonk, I can empathise with that
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2001 2011 swing
C P C P
East Belfast 8 87 13 75 + 8.5
North Belfast 44 53 47 46 + 5
South Belfast 41 53 44 44 + 6
West Belfast 83 16 80 17 -2
East Antrim 20 75 20 70 +2.5
East L’derry 40 57 42 53 +3
FST 55 43 58 39 +3.5
Foyle 76 23 75 22 /
Lagan V 14 81 19 72 +7
Mid U 65 34 67 31 +2.5
N&A 67 31 66 31 -0.5
North Ant 27 70 28 66 +2.5
North Down 12 82 13 74 +4.5
South Ant 28 68 32 60 +6
South Down 70 29 69 27 /
Strang 17 79 17 73 +3
Upper B 43 55 44 50 +3
West Tyr 68 31 68 30 +0.5
Sorry about the mess but gremlins in the works and as mentioned earlier Im pretty busy
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Key wards mentioned in previous thread:
Cath % Change Prot % Change
95GG36 Orangefield 7.7% -14.0%
95GG03 Ballyhackamore 5.6% -12.1%
95GG13 Castleview 7.0% -10.1%
95GG24 Fortwilliam 8.4% -13.7%
95GG37 Ravenhill 14.1% -20.4%
95GG50 Woodstock 13.2% -23.4%
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Good stuff Boondock. As said above, the info was published in a less than friendly manner. Lots of work ahead 😉
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The following are the % of the total ward population from A8 countries.
Woodstock 8%
Ravenhill 5%
Orangefield 2.12%
The Mount 8.1%
Bloomfield 6.1%
Island 5.4%
Duncairn 5%
Blackstaff 7.3%
Legoniel 2.1%
Wards in greater Belfast are that small theres no point listing them.
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Oakleaf, I dont understand you? Sorry, now I do. I have excluded the A8 countries from my figures
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So is that an 18% increase in the Catholic population in Duncairn ward not including eastern Europeans?
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Nope. I am not differentiating or excluding eastern europeans, Chinese, Indians, mad nutters or any others from my figures. I am using the bare figures only. I’ve only had a few hours but I dont care to be honest.It is votes that actually matter
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By the way you’ve got a fan on the loyalist pulse website. They lifted all your stats.
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Perhaps they may realise they are not my figures. I have had some unwanted attention from some Rangers affiliated sites recently, also related to information sourced from legitimate sources. Loyalism, as is constantly demonstrated, is incapable of engaging in argument. Threats and intimidation seems to be the order of the day. That is why they lose the argument time after time
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Boondock, I’m not sure they were compared. The previous outputs were only district councils so there wouldn’t have been a chance. In any case if a comparison is made, it would need to be ward-for-ward as the previous north belfast covered a smaller geographic area.
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http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2426-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census+2011-yearfilter–
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-1831-lh-37-yn-2001-sk-135-sn-Census+2001-yearfilter–
These are the stats i took directly from the website, the 2001 census also has the 98 boundaries stats. Any boundary changes between 2001 and 2011 will need ward for ward data but it still shows us whats happening
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Just noticed both these links just send you to the same page anyway from the home page its easy enough to navugate between 2001 and 2011 and then select AA on available geographies
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Can I introduce a health warning.
I’m grateful to Mr Dub…and particuarly Boondock…but just want to emphasise that these are population figures not people on the register and will take a few years before th trends have impact….
I will be using some of these figures with permission…duly credited …in my own blog if I ever get the time.
but just to draw attention to Fermanagh-South Tyrone? It would be almost impossible for unionists to turn a 39% Protestant population into three seats, as they hold now.
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Agreed FJH,
I was thinking about the difference between numbers for RC and Protestant and differentials in votes for their (usual) voting patterns. Of course, voting along usual lines does not occur all the time, but could the discrepancy also be partly explained by people not registering to vote as well as being barred from voting owing to age? You guys have been looking at the figures, any thoughts?
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True.
but I think that that parties get energised to get people on register if they fear losing a seat…or sniffing a gain.
I think it takes more than one election cycle for that to filter thru.
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FJH,
I think most are aware of that. I think once BD gets through the initial data, we may compare 2001 voting to 2011 voting taking into account an offset from a younger electorate and seeing if the offset remains in both cases.
I’ve just gone through North Belfast and it looks like for all the wards there the larest plurality is those from a ‘catholic community background’ at 48012 and the ‘prot. comm. background’ is 45079 for 2011. Now in 2013, I hope Nigel Dodds is relayed these figures, to see if manners are put on him in time for this year’s marching season. Otherwise he can squeeze the UUP all he wants, he’ll still be toast.
It might not be long before the growing alliance presence in the constituency, with nationalist surpluses, threatens to take one of the DUP seats.
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You left out Whitehouse 😉
48126 plays 46821 – a difference of 1,305
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Haha, you may well be right and I missed a ward. Thanks for the fact check. Still, it makes the same point that north Belfast is no longer a unionist seat. I didn’t have time to look at South Belfast but I’ll get round to it. Amazing how the two pottinger wards, particularly Ravenhill have changed here. And the four castlereagh south all have catholic pluralities.
Interesting how both blocs also fall in most
laganbank wards. Shows that the drop seen
by both the nationalist parties in that area as
well as the unionists can be put down to a
changing face of Belfast.
Regarding duncairn, I recently took a virtual tour after frank Carson died as he lived there for a while. I was surprised to see murals of connolly and larkin around the docks as I associate any shipping related area of Belfast with unionism. So I was thinking that the new dockland developments would be a good place to move for those on the chronic housing list. Glad to see, despite Nelson’s best efforts, those Catholics in North Belfast are resourceful enough to find other accommodation while still remaining in North Belfast. Good for them
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The addition of Shankill, Glencairn and Highfield would give Nigel an advantage of 9,223 – 1,305 or 7,918. It’s just too bad, eh!?
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Fear Feirsteach,
I have only included edited highlights above, there is just too much data to present 😉
If you want my full figures I will publish them but it would be just a mass of numbers.
If anyone wants my spreadsheets I am happy to e-mail them individually, just let me know by mail to bangordub@gmail.com
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Keep it for later, bud. You’ll get a few posts out of it.
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Sailortown was meant to be home to 1500 units but at the minute the Unionists have managed to keep it at 74 units. Sailortown itself was always a Catholic area but was bulldozed in the 60s.
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