Something to keep you all occupied.
The Detail Website has produced an interactive map showing the demographic breakdown of every school in the North.
I am linking to it here.
I am sure you will all look first at your own local areas as have I. Bangor, for instance throws up some surprising figures:
| Primary | Secondary | |
| Catholic | 11.41% | 8.98% |
| Protestant | 51.64% | 65.90% |
| Other | 36.95% | 25.13% |
This doesn’t of course factor in students who may travel outside the area to school and the very high figures for “Other” in the survey but it is a good guide as to trends in particular areas. Dungannon is a case in point.
I will put some figures together for other areas over the next few days. The map is on a school by school basis and based on raw numbers so this may take me a little time.
Update: Here are the headline percentages based on the NI Total figures. I have included the 1998 percentages for comparison.
| 2012 | Primary | Secondary |
| Catholic | 50.70% | 51.70% |
| Protestant | 35.90% | 38.60% |
| Other | 13.40% | 9.70% |
| 1998 | Primary | Secondary |
| Catholic | 50.40% | 52.00% |
| Protestant | 43.50% | 40.80% |
| Other | 6.20% | 7.10% |
Belfast Summary:
| 2012 | Primary | Secondary |
| Catholic | 51.80% | 54.45% |
| Protestant | 31.21% | 32.74% |
| Other | 16.79% | 12.82% |
"We in coming days may be" 
Interesting post BD,
Like you said, I went straight to Derry to remind myself of all the schools I knew as well as some in the surrounding villages which I never knew existed.
Is this map complete? I always thought there was another controlled PS in the waterside area of Derry called Lisnagelvin. Otherwise it means that the built up area of the waterside consists of three catholic PS’s, one integrated and just one controlled school which is difficult to believe.
Other areas that I’m vaguely familiar with like strabane showed just one Grammar school : A controlled grammar called strabane academy (which my sister went to briefly for her A levels) and yet there was no maintained school, comp. or grammar, in Strabane which was a bit heart to believe considering I remember the convent grammar and St. Colman’s high. When I checked this these two and another maintained school were merged into a super 1500 pupil school called holy cross college. It is even located by googlemap but not with the pins.
It got me wondering if other recently merged schools could explain why there doesn’t seem to be a single maintained school shown for the whole of Ballymena?
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The interesting thing is that 30 controlled schools have a Catholic population of 30% or more.
Changing demographics? South Belfast now heading to be overwhelming catholic? Stranmillis PS nearly 40% catholic and St Brides near 800 odd pupils.
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Charlie,
The information was provided under a freedom of information request.
I have no reason to believe it is incomplete but to be honest I am relying on local people like yourself to identify any gaps. I can tell you that the Bangor info is pretty thorough. You may be aware that there have been a lot of school closures over recent years due to falling numbers.
Re Ballymena: There are 3 Maintained Secondary Schools alone, you need to drill down on the map.
Figures below:
3230084 St Patrick’s College Secondary RC maintained BROUGHSHANE ROAD BALLYMENA BT437DZ (P)5 (Cath)503 (Other)7
3230142 St Mary’s College Secondary RC maintained 230 MOYAGALL ROAD BALLYMENA BT448NN 5 319 5
3230310 ST KILLIAN’S COLLEGE Secondary RC maintained 25 TOWER ROAD BALLYMENA BT440JS 11 813 5
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Getting back to school figures. From the deni.gov.uk site I was able to get more stats for primary school.
Compared from 2006 to 2011 as a portion of the number of pupils there has been;
-7.9% decrease of protestants (from 39.3 to 36.2)
1% increase in catholics (from 50.2 to 50.7)
28.6% increase in other christians (from 2.1 to 2.7)
75% increase in other religions (from 0.4 to 0.7)
21.3% increase in not recorded/none (from 8 to 9.7)
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Ok now I know something is wrong.
For a start, drilling down as far as possible I see nothing.
Secondly, that last school you mentioned is nowhere near Ballymena, but in the glens!
Are we seeing different maps?
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Charlie,
I’ll email you the raw data
I’ve checked the link and it works for me, I filtered the info by location and the 3 I sent you are filtered and mapped in Ballymena. There are also a number of primary schools. The raw ifno source is DENI.
Update: Charlie, your e-mail address is bouncing back, it is a hotmail account???
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Ballymena secondary stats:
2012 Secondary
Catholic 40.71%
Protestant 49.74%
Other 9.71%
Based on following schools
Cullybackey High School
Dunclug College
Ballee Community High School
St Patrick’s College
St Mary’s College
ST KILLIAN’S COLLEGE
Slemish College
Cambridge House Grammar School
St Louis Grammar School
Ballymena Academy
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St Mary’s College is in Clady in south Derry but has a Portglenone address hence Ballymena.
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You can tell society is getting less religious but there has also been a marked increase in other christian and other religions in the primary school sector.
Dungannon ps is 30% catholic! Immigrants? Fane street on the Donegal road 10% catholic! Immigrants again?
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Zero tolerance at one Belfast Integrated school?
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/education/i-didnt-call-pupils-sluts-and-scruffs-but-i-am-really-strict-says-principal-at-belfast-school-16240041.html
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Hobo,
I like her!!!!
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BD,
Yeah that’s an old address sorry. I’ll include my current one by editing my details.
I still can’t find anything other than a school in the glens but their website says they’re an alamgation of a few schools, one of which was in the ballymena area. I think they’re using a very loose definition of Ballymena e.g. the council area which goes right up into the glens.
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Charlie, your’e probably correct. As Oakleaf has identified above there seem to be some geographic liberties taken. 🙂
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i was looking through the spreadsheet and there is some interesting information, The increase in the secular population within the unionist community and though it is happening to an extent in the nat community it is probably being hid slightly by eastern european migration. I have some state schools with figures from 1997 and compared them to 2011. (% in order of Protestant, Catholic and other)
Belfast:
Euston Street PS 1997 – (84% 0% 16%) 2012 – (45.6% 6.7% 48.3%)
Rosetta PS 1997 – (67.4 # #) 2012 – (42.4% 9.3% 48.3%)
Nettlefield 97 – (87.9% 0% 12.1%) 12 – (77.7% 7.3% 15%)
Avoniel 97 – (Not given) 12 – (52.7% 5.5% 41.8%)
Taughmonagh 97 – (56.3% 0% 43.7%) – 12 – (57.3% 7.8% 34.9%)
Stranmillis 97 – (58.6% 13.2% 28.2%) – 12 – (39.9% 33.5% 26.7%)
Ligoniel 97 – (92.4% 0% 7.6%) – 12 – (68.8% 8% 23.2%)
Knocknagoney 97 – (# 0% #) – 12 -(75.2% 9.7% 15%)
Fane Street 97 – (84.3% 0% 15.7%) – (46.6% 14% 39.4%)
Botanic 97 – (39.3% 12.1% 48.6%) – (24.3% 8.4% 67.3%)
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Model Derry – 97 (16.7% 67.8% 15.5%) – 12 – (5.4% 73.1% 21.5%)
Belleek – 97 (# 0% #) – 12 – (61.9% 19% 19%)
Culmore 97 (63.6% 21.2% 15.2%) – 12 – (16.1% 78.2% 5.7%)
Ballougry 97 (67.4% 32.6% 0%) 12 (# 67.5% #)
Ballykelly 97 (58.6% 41.4% 0%) 12 (42.7% 48.3% 9%)
Strabane 97 (53.2% 39.4% 7.4%) 12 (36.8% 51.2% 12%)
The Model PS, Culmore and Ballougry are all on the west bank of Derry and basically it shows the Protestant population moving out of the west bank or Derry altogether.
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Glengormley 97 (82.8% # #) 12 (23% 41.9% 35%)
Ballycastle 97 (89.4% 7.1% 3.5%) 12 (36.3% 38.8% 25%)
Newcastle 97 (87.4% # #) 12 (30.2% 20.7% 49.1%)
Downpatrick 97 (58.3% 20.3% 21.4%) 12 (31.7% 36.1% 32.2%)
Carrick (lurgan) 97 (58.9% 14.6% 25.4%) 12 (38.3% 35% 26.7%)
Dromore Road (W’point) 97 (55.3% 26.3% 18.4%) 12 (41.9% 36.6% 21.5%)
Dungannon 97 (96.2% 3.8% 0%) 12 (36.6% 32.9% 30.5%)
Glengormley and Ballycastle are now both Integrated.
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I’ve been asked a question about Maghera. Can anyone help?
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What about it?
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Can you tell me is there a large immigrant population?
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As far as I’m aware no. There is some though though compared to other areas not great.
I didn’t some rough working out recently with some figures that I managed to get my hands on. In Magherafelt LGD (which Maghera is part of) in the primary school age band (P1-P7) Catholic school children probably make up 78% of the figures for this age group with immigrants accounting for 5% or less of catholic pupils. The immigrants in Magherafelt LGD mainly go to Holy Family in Magherafelt itself.
In 2001 census catholics in Magherafelt lgd made of 64% of the population so if my figures are right (we will find out soon enough) the protestant birth rate in south Derry has collapsed (apart from Tobermore and Upperlands.
Another thing I noticed about country towns is the very small number of migrants how send their children go to integrated schools compared to Belfast. In Dungannon where 80% of P1 and P2 in St Pats are immigrant children and in the state school where the figure for P1 is 60% or so there are hardly any in the Integrated.
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Please forgive my spelling mistakes.
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Spelling not a problem, wading through the figures 🙂
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Oakleaf,
Here is Maghera and Magherafelt. (Apologies for the sloppy presentation)
Figs are Prot, Cath, Other and Total for each
Translates as: P 21.5% C 75% and other 3.5%
Magherafelt High School 541 5 48 594
St Colm’s High School 0 428 5 433
St Pius X College 0 922 5 927
St Patrick’s Co-ed Comprehensive College 5 1296 2 1303
Sperrin Integrated College 205 217 73 495
Rainey Endowed School 431 216 56 703
St Mary’s Grammar School 5 1068 5 1078
1187 4152 194 5533
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I stick to primary schools as they cover the local parish or town so you can roughtly guess % wise either by town/village or lgd.
High schools attract pupils are over the place so is not easy to guage. St pats Maghera for example pulls in pupils as far away as Banagher (near Claudy).
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Oakleaf,
Thats a fair reasoning.
I will redo the primary stats for you but please note below – Bracketed comments are by me. In addition there is a tendency at primary level not to allocate a religious preference as noted by Horseman.
Source: NI school census
Note:
1. The ‘Others’ category includes other Christian, Non Christian and No religion/religion unknown.
* denotes fewer than 5 pupils (I have made all of these 5, the Maximum plus 1)
# denotes figure more than or equal to 5 suppressed due to potential identification of individual pupils (See below)
(By simple maths, where I have a single figure plus the total I have extrapolated the remaining figures. eg:
“5420073 St Joseph’s Grammar School Grammar Voluntary – RC managed 58 CASTLECAULFIELD ROAD DUNGANNON BT703HE (P)0 (C)# (Other)* (Total) 579”
I am working that out at (P) 0 (C) 574 and (Other) 5)
I hope that makes sense
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Maghera Magherafelt including Primary based on following Primary Schools:
Tobermore Primary School
Ampertaine Primary School
Drumard Primary School
Magherafelt Controlled Primary School
Culnady Primary School
Bellaghy Primary School
Maghera Primary School
Kilross Primary School
Castledawson Primary School
Knockloughrim Primary School
Altayeskey Primary School
St Brigid’s Primary School Tirkane
New Row Primary School
St Trea’s Primary School
Knocknagin Primary School
St Columb’s Primary School (Cullion)
St Columba’s Primary School
St Eoghan’s Primary School
St Mary’s Primary School
St John’s Primary School
St Mary’s Primary School
St Mary’s Primary School (Glenview)
St Brigid’s Primary School
St Patrick’s Primary School (Glen)
Holy Family Primary School
Desertmartin Primary School
Gaelscoil na Spéiríní
Gaelscoil an tSeanchaí
Spires Integrated Primary School
Moneymore Primary School
Woods Primary School
St Patrick’s Primary School Loup
St Malachy’s Primary School
St Patrick’s Primary School
2012 Primary Secondary
Catholic 69.80% 75.04%
Protestant 24.59% 21.45%
Other 5.74% 3.51%
Oakleaf, is this group of schools a fair representation?
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I do mine by lgd so they wouldn’t match the areas given by the map as I like to cross reference it with census and other nisra stats.
Your schools listed I would remove the last 4 (as they are in cookstown lgd even though are in co Derry) and add St Marys PS Greenlough and St John Bosco Ps to your list as both are in Magherafelt lgd and co Derry (they have Ballymena postcodes as Portglenone is the nearest town).
That should bring Catholic up to 75% or should though this school years intake will have pushed that figure up even more. Holy Family Magherafelt have an intake of 85 this year along with 18 in the Gaelscoil in Magherafelt. In rural areas or the lgd St Brigids Gulladuff have 37 pupils this year (in the late 90s numbers would have been in the high teens/low 20’s) and nearby Greenlough have 28 intake from the past 3 years which again 10 years ago was in the mid teens for an intake.
Nearby Portglenone right on the Antrim/Derry border is interesting. When Francis Hughes died during the hunger strike the RUC would not allow his body to go through Toome so instead diverted it through Randalstown and Portglenone in which loyalists mobs had gathered. Now click on both schools in the town to see how much has/is changing in the demographics of this area.
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Ok I see your point.
That would bring the primary stats in line with the secondaries. It is also why local knowledge is crucial in interpreting these figures so great work!!!
I’ve had a look at Randalstown and Portglenone. Wow
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To follow up my point about inconsistencies. Now I click on the Derry area again, the Lisnagelvin PS I was talking about has appeared but now Lumi Christi College has gone missing for me. I think the pie charts correctly indentify schools in an area, but when you drill down the pins are gone. In Coleraine for example, the pie chart suggests that there are three grammar schools, but only two green pins are illustarted for Coleraine Acad. and Coleraine High. The green pin for Loreto college has mysteriously gone AWOL.
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Otherbinteresting areas are Glengormley and Carryduff.
In Glengormley after several years of lower intakes than normal school rolls are starting to go through the roof thanks to new estates in the hightown/hydepark area being built and in fact still building away.
There is a Gaelscoil now in the area the last several years and this year had an intake of 34 pupils. There are also 3 RCC schools and an integrated which was the old state school and it nearly closed a few years back because of very low numbers. Since changing to integrated it has found a new lease of life. Not forgetting there are also a couple of state schools as well.
All in all an interesting area to check out when ward info is released.
Regarding Carryduff just click on both schools on the map to see the changing demographics of this area. Carryduff was a UDA stronghold in the 70s.
Another thing that people might be surprised in is not the growing number of no religion but of other religions in the 0-3 bracket in south Belfast.
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Charlie, did you recieve the spreadsheet I e-mailed you? It’s all there
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Yes I did BD thanks,
although the map is still a lot easier on the eye. In fact the penny has dropped. The missing schools are all hidden behind others using the same pin. I get the feeling that where a similar address is used, the pin can cover two or three schools, you just have to look for them.
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I was reading The Ulsters Doomed website about the greening of south Belfast so I decided to do some rough work with the figures provided.
For the schools in the south Belfast (westminster) area I worked out that 53% pupils are Catholic, 23% protestant and 23% other%. This is before NISRA would do their community background figures which would push the ‘protestant’ figures up to about 35% at most, lots of mixed marriages in the area as well as immigrants.
The ‘other’ I would like to see broke down further to other christian, non christian and no religion.
For s.Belfast the other figure for no religion is probably 17%, 3% other christian and 3% other religion.
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Don’t forget Greenhaw PS on the west bank of Derry near culmore road. ITs a controlled school that’s ~100% catholic these days.
Ahh, horseman’s south belfast article, one of the best! Actually to stay on topic, check out his chronological school census charts (and add to it if you like as I’m not sure Enda did when I suggested it to him, there will be a couple of new datapoints and a new one in February)
Also of interest is the monitoring report show the workforce applicant data every december so there will be a lot of data to keep you gentlemen busy soon.
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Charlie,
I have those figures and will do comparison charts when I have a minute
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By the way, I’d love someone to tell the guy who put this together.
http://nireland2001.webs.com/aontroimantrim.htm
a) the guy’s detail goes beyond ward level but to age groups at super output level.
b) will he be making a 2011 shortly?
Anyway, if it’s remotely right, it shows that south belfast undergoes the most transformation.
Certiainly elections do suggest that, but will it continue at this pace?
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Just yesterday I was talking to a new neighbour. Her son left the local integrated school this summer but keeps in contact with his old school chums. A couple of weeks ago, he, a Catholic, was with his Protestant school mate in his estate and……well, you guessed it, he got his crap kicked in.
The estate is completely awash with known loyalists plying their trade including levies on individuals who are small time dealers. I certainly know for a fact that they were recruiting young kids as recently as recently as summer 2011.
This is the darkness that many children in integrated education return to after the final bell, where they hang out at the weekend and the summer. This is the problem, police and political inaction, not integrated schools
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Paul,
This is the “Darkness” that will only be left behind when this statelet ceases to be. It gives them a twisted form of legitamacy as it does for criminals on the Republican side also.
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Brings back horrible memories of my brother. Living on the waterside in Derry we were often made aware of the danger of wearing school uniforms. He once found himself needing to walk home in his uniform. He decided not to walk the full stretch of the Limavady road by himself so he waited at Dale’s corner for another bus. At that moment a group of boys from the now defunct Clondermott High School (since amalgamated with another into Lisneal college) showed up and made a bee-line for my brother. He was about to run across the road but heard the cars revving up to go at the traffic lights so he stood there and, sure enough, got a complete hiding.
When he eventually got home, he staggered in, his face the same shade as the white paint on the walls, and said nothing. Just shut the door into his bedroom behind him and didn’t come out.
Seeing as he was many years older than me, when I eventually went to ‘big school’ I never in 7 years made that mistake. Although it didn’t stop a few lunatics once punching me in the back of the head on a service bus because they didn’t like the uniform.
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The map and pop-up graphs are so damn with it – I’m sure its doing a better job than ‘weightwatchers’ in getting our UNionist Broes in a quare owl sweat.
I didn’t wtite down the figure for Craigavon but at primary level their are at least 1000 more catholics. Cookstown LGD is now 67.5% catholic at primary level. Armagh is 54% which possibly means no chang in the Unionist/nat overall share. Kilkeel electoral division is evenly split but unioniists are overwelminly concentrated in urban Kilkeel and Annalong. Killyleagh and its hinterland which on the 2001 census has 2000 unionists only has 70 protestAnt students at its primary school while the 1000 nats have 120 at their local catholic school. Anyone know of the discrepancy here. Are young kids being bussed to DownPatrick to keep that 97% catholic town local Protestant Primary viable?
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Again I take no joy in talking of Catholic/Protestant %’s. its our Unionist folk who created this affront and are slowly being corralled in a few corners of dear old Ulster. And its gotta be damaging to their fragile pysche. But reality is sure to reawaken a few more Billy Leonard’s to rediscover their inner Henry J McCracken and transform this island into the Eden we all know is possible.
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Dungannon town is interesting. Although the town has an integrated local Catholic’s go to it as well immigrants. Are immigrants helping to break down barriers? Also to show the scale of immigration in this town something like 78% of primary pupils are catholic compared to 57% for the towns population in the 2001 census.
Aughnacloy seems also to have quite large immigrant population.
The Lisburn area will be interesting as well as Banbridge. Although both towns are attracting Catholic the sournding towns and villages like Dromore have grown massivley due to Protestant migration from Belfast.
The same is also happening in the unionist towns south of Craigavon and Lurgan as well in Ards and in rural Newtownabbey (Ballyclare ares).
In urban Newtownabbey there should be big changes in the Catholic in all the Glengormley wards but most especially Mallusk.
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By go to it I mean the local state school in Dungannon.
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Pingback: Ulster’s Doomed? Ethno-nat number crunchers and census nonsense » Open Unionism
Oh Dear,
Open Unionism’s blog appears to be mixing me and Enda up 😉
http://www.openunionism.com/ulsters-doomed-ethno-nat-number-crunchers-and-census-nonsense/
“After the untimely death of its author, the flame has been kept lit (as Baz McElduff would probably have it) by Bangor Dub’s “Endgame in Ulster””
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whoops,
You have a fanbase BD, they’ll just not admit it 😉
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Apparently! I wish they would comment. But honestly, O’neil is a well known blogger, l would have expected a slightly more accurate post. I have replied but am still being “Moderated”. So far my unmoderated reply is the only comment
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Now…ammended, and apologies to the two ethno-nat number crunchers (!) in question.
Unfortunately (!) I am now balancing a job, almost full-time study and a dog so comment moderation is not real-time.
Still, I think this post does come under the category of “ethno-nat” number crunching because in all reality if your vision for a future “United” Ireland is based on the hun versus catholic breakdown of kids attending school on Killyleagh then you’ve effectively handed us the moral victory on a plate. “We won the “United” Ireland because we outbred the Hun”, well, congratulations, following in the footsteps of Wolfe-Tone indeed.
If I were a nationalist (and I thank the good secular god above that i am not) I would be building up the economic, social and maybe even cultural arguments for your target. But if you want to leave that aside, then fair enough.
*Whistle* “moral victory” *Whistle*
Two other points; I notice the several commentators who have pointed out the intimidation faced by catholic children; NI is one of the unusual “conflict” situations where the aggression and intimidation was all one way- the stones that used to fly through the windows of our (integrated) school bus as we passed through the Lower Ormeau Rd many moons ago were probably of the non-sectarian, “sure we’re just having a craic” variety. They may have even been a figment of our (undoubted) *siege mentality* syndrome.
The lack of comments on my original post. I wish people (especially Unionists) would comment on our NI stuff but curiously enough the only posts which seem to generate any heat nowadays are those where we have a pop at the SNP or when we imply England doesn’t need a devolved parliament. Either NI Unionists no longer care because they reckon the battle is lost or they no longer care because they believe our position is pretty solid at the moment. I know which option my money is on but you make your own choice.
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Thanks for your reply O’Neill,
Ok, I too do a lot of study, I’ve just qualified in a professional qualification which was difficult to say the least.
This blog is centered on number crunching certainly because the foundation of the North was based upon that exact reason. I am happy to accept that reasoning and apply it to the present day.
You cannot assert the legitimacy of the Northern statelet which was founded on numerical superiority and then claim that numerical superiority is irrelevant. That is without going into the whole 1919 election thing which, of course, renders the entire thing undemocratic in the extreme.
I think you are getting at the equivalence between religion and national aspiration with your Wolfe Tone reference. I agree. Horseman was a Protestant, as was Wolfe Tone. I could quote many, many others right back to Henry Joy McCracken etc.
That, perhaps, explains the protestant background in so many schools which might otherwise be presumed to be nationalist in ethos.
Your comments on childhood experiences are not mine but perhaps others here may comment,
Thanks for your thoughts
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The people who believe in Integrated Education are a bit like Vegetarians and Cyclists. Not only do the believe they have made better choices but they believe they are superior human beings who have a unique right to tell people who dont believe in education, eat meat and drive cars how we should live our lives.
Its impossible to talk to a person who believes in Integrated Education
….they are at heart fundamentalists…albeit (in their own minds) a superior kind of one to Nelson McCausland.
As far as I can see its normal for parents to want kids to grow up to be like them…we all have that point where we would not wish a child of ours to make a certain choice…….like voting Alliance or supporting Manchester City. I have never met a person who believed in Education who didnt have some point. Deep down they want their kids to be like them.
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I have tried (for son #1) Irish Nursey Education, Catholic Primary, State Primary, Integrated Secondary, Catholic Secondary.
Contrary to expectation aged 4 and 5 he did not join republican paramilitaries although it did disconcert me that slightly too many parents had “jailic”. In fact in 2012, republicans seem a little uneasy that gaelic language schools have been hijacked by the aspiring middle class. The State Primary was for geographic reasons……48 on the register including 4 Catholics including our two. Delighted as the staff were to see our boys on the role of a school threatened with closure the same couldnt be said for ALL of the families. We were rather over-welcomed at parents meetings by some, cold-shouldered by others for being “themmuns” and the school governor a UUP councillor seemed a little peeved that he had to ad lib his speech, moderationg it for the Taigs in the room.
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As our #1 son wanted to maintain his friendships with his primary school friends, he went to an integrated secondary school for three years until we took him away cos it was an awful school. It is a simple fact that some failing state secondary schools re-invent themselves as integrated. The figures and stats dont show that not all integrated schools are like that lovely Lagan College started by those Alliance-leaning people who started it all. The chances of some pupils in failing integrated schools ending up voting Alliance seems remote……and that is not part of the plan. In fact the genuine need to cater to two cultures has produced the unsatisfactory result (for the Golden Halo) of re-inforcing the Divide. For example my sons integrated school wanted to introduce gaelic football and I put a spanner in works by rspeaking against it……it should have been a problem in a school with RUC parents. Secualr liberal unionism is a risible concept anyway but they advocate a kinda back to the drawing board where integrated education becomes the STAE model……not exactly favoured by Protestant churchmen. Rev Norman Hamilton claims there is no such thing as value free education. Thus letsgetalongerists basically want to extend a State system and call it integrated. An “integrated school” in Crossmaglen has no real relevance in terms of the pupil numbers from Catholic homes but a revised integrated ethos would undermine nationalism…….which is the whole point. Letsgetalongerism is de facto unionist and nationalists would be crazy to vote for that.
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All schools act “in loco parentis”…….and to some extent we parents compromise when we send a child to school. The teacher may be unionist/nationalist/ or God forbid Alliance….Labour, conservative etc but we just have to accept it. At heart all parents want to MAXIMISE the influence of HOME over EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM….and in Norn Iron we have a unique opportunity to do that. Some would prefer that THEIR “good” LETSGETALONGERIST system is actually given priority over family.y
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Phew FJH,
You let off some steam there last night! Thanks for your thoughts as always.
I always find it most interesting when opinions are formed or informed by personal experience. I had an interesting conversation with my 10 year old daughter when she asked me what an integrated school was. I struggled for an answer to be honest
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actually I had some problems with the text thingy last night. It was meant to be one post but had to split it up when I could not see what I was typing.
In essence what I was trying to say is ythat are three systems…state, integrated, catholic……..and tribes such as catholic/nationalist, secular/nationalist protestant/unionist and secular/unionist…….letsgetalongerist/secular and letsgetalongerist/catholic lets getalongerist/protestant.
The difficulty is that the traditional (1980s) model of integrated education understands that it means bringing the two tribes into a school and allowing them to go home to whatever. The 2012 model is secular and is really about social engineering which hopes that the system produces a particular outlook…..letsgetalongerism……….
Its a mission statement and frankly in a democracy nationalists would not give that up.
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I agree. Just a point for your consideration, In the US differing ethnic backgrounds are united under the stars and stripes and the national anthem. The very points that are so divisive here. Letsgetalongerism is doomed, like “Ulster” purely because there is no unifying factor. It cannot be manufactured or imagined because it does not exist
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Actually in my Great Address to the American People, I make the point that Conflict Resolution is a form of de-Nazification….post WW2……the Conflict Resolutionists want us all to go to a LetsGetAlongerist Re-Education Centre and purge ourselves of our nationalism and adopt a form of liberal unionism as the norm.
But if you take the Pledge of Allegiance, this is recited by black, white, southerners, northerners, native americans, hispanics and the flag is a unifying thing simply because one “side” emerged from War.
Here we have two sides….and effectively letsgetalongerism apportions victory and defeat.
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”This blog is centered on number crunching certainly because the foundation of the North was based upon that exact reason. I am happy to accept that reasoning and apply it to the present day.
You cannot assert the legitimacy of the Northern statelet which was founded on numerical superiority and then claim that numerical superiority is irrelevant. That is without going into the whole 1919 election thing which, of course, renders the entire thing undemocratic in the extreme”
As I pointed out on Open Unionism, the psot WW1 period 1918-1922 with the likes of Versailles, Trianon etc saw Europe divided out on the basis of ethnic and religious grounds. Some of it was just, some of it wasn’t. Given the complete and utter lack of compatibility between E Ulster and the rest of Ireland, I think the creation of N Ireland rests more on the just side. But that is obviously a subjective opinion
However, here we are in 2012 and not 1922 and as a consequence I really think the ethno-nat argument is not only out of date but also immoral and actually, in terms of obtaining your own objective, counter/productive. I don’t know how many protestants you know, but trust me, plenty now are proud to claim Irishness as part of an inevitably mixed national identity. Yet, you (talking about nationalism as a whole as opposed to specifically you personally) decides to concentrate solely on the “outbreed the Huns” route to a 32 county state. That’s all you can offer?
From what I’ve read of Wolfe-Tone and the likes of McCracken and Betsy Gray (research her, well worth a post on here own), I think they would be feeling a bit, you know, left out, with this post.
”Your comments on childhood experiences are not mine but perhaps others here may comment,
Thanks for your thoughts”
They haven’t commented to date because the concept of bigotry existing within their own community is one which simply doesn’t compute.
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O’Neill,
The imbalance in ethnicity that existed in the NE of Ulster was as a result of a de facto ethnic cleansing that involved religious, cultural and land owning laws which were blatently discriminatory and designed to assert a political control over an indigineous population.
Yep it’s 2012 now and we have moved on I hope.
In defence of my quoted comment above (You cannot assert the legitimacy …)
You may as well argue that West Belfast, or Ballymena, or Bradford, should have independence based upon their ethnic differences.
I am, to be honest, annoyed that you think I don’t know many “Prods” I do. And they know me very well. We have many very civilised debates and banter, the strange thing is that we agree on much more than we disagree and we can laugh about our differences rather than fight about them.
Your point about this blog being a mere “Breeding” headcount is plain wrong. Please read my previous posts, I’m only on the go 6 months. I have an interest in the demographics certainly and yes, I’m a number cruncher, but please don’t dismiss me as crudely as someone who “Concentrates soley on outbreeding the Huns”, I will argue that point with you if you wish but a quick scan through earlier posts may change your mind.
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http://bit.ly/QYKlzR
Are the census figures worst for unionists than we think? Lots and lots of sabre rattling from Peter Robinson lately.
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Oakleaf,
There are a few possilbities to explain Robbo’s uttterances and one of them is ‘triumphalism’ my gut feeling is that he is largely correct and there will follow (after digestion of the census figuers) a very difficult period for Nationalism – after a period of (inevitable) denial.
Luckily for Nats I think turnout will continue to be relatively greater problem for Unionism and SF and the SDLP vote will hold – helped by the behaviour of Unionism in the shape of the Orange Order – but the ‘Union’ (such as it is) will remain safe for the forseeable with a probable increase in dissident violence – able to tap into increasing Nationalist ideological disenchantment.
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Interesting times ahead alright.
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Would Robbo have seen the figures? The DUP always had plenty of friends in the civil service to leak documents to them.
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re. leaks.
Oakleaf, it may well be the case but it doesnt take a genius to know that the ‘other’ category(particularly amongst Unionists) will have increased – this will be used by SF and Nats (including on here I guess?) to suggest the Union is therefore under threat – unfortunately I think Robbo is right to view this as no such thing.
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There is no doubt the other group has increased as you can see from the school figures most especially in state schools.
Republicans will say low % declaring themselves British while unionists will say the same about % of peopke declaring themselves as Irish.
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Oakleaf, that is where I think logic is on the side of Robbo – if you wanted to change the status quo ie in favour of a UI you owuld put Irish – if the ‘Irish’ % is in the 40s Unionists will be worried if it is not then Nats will be very disappointed.
I’m going for 38% declaring themselves to be Irish, vindicating Robbo’s alysis/remarks- what about yourself?
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To be honest I wouldn’t have a clue but your probably not far wrong.
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Hi BD,
I just wanted to say that I always enjoy these threads from you guys. The fact that you all take the time to seriously go through the data and add some of your own anecdotal and local knowledge really adds to something I find very interesting to read.
Regarding O’Neill’s posts above, interestingish yet completely predictable too.
In fairness, it is easy and rather convenient to say how tawdry it may be for a side you disagree with is for relying on a change in the ethno-demographics and that you are against an ethno religious head count in politics, especially here in the North, when your ethno-religious group is in the majority and that’s how this state came into being.
I think questions have been asked by some such as Ulick and others over on SOT of all places regarding the rather lazy assumptions made by many unionist posters, commentators and pols whereby we are constantly told of 100k unionist voters in garden centres who we are only to assume would come out and vote to stay in the union if push comes to shove (the cavalry are coming!!!), yet the Nationalist vote is as large as it gets. We know that we too have large numbers of Nats not voting at the moment though I do laugh whenever our share of the vote just keeps creeping up, slowly yet surely. Why else would Robo be having a Kafflik outreach at the moment? Has he had a change of heart all of a sudden or has he seen something he doesn’t like that we will have the pleasure of seeing come December 11th?
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FC
I think that’s me who raised it, so cheers!
It does make me chuckle though. How we never hear of numbers with no grounding being quoted in favour of nationalists. It gets to the heart of the problem, the self-deluding Alex Kanes of this world constantly looking for new and ingenious ways to delude and reassure people. The army of garden center prods is one, the vast majority of unionist catholics is another. The only shred of evidence any one has is the shrinking unionist vote: year in, year out but that’s not going to cheer anyone up is it.
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Charlie,
You and the guys over there were on to something that clearly annoyed the likes of Gerry Lynch et al, that there opinion poll results are not worth much. Over in the states for the US Presidential elections where 10s of millions of dollars was spent, we find out that Barry won by a margin of near 3.5% yet consistently was told to be only 1.5% ahead.
Now, if this is the largest polling event there is and a whole multitude of pollsters were seriously off the money, why the hell would I trust something from an organisation run by avowed letsgetalongerists in conjunction with the Bele Tele especially when they are telling me something that I and thousands of others, many on this site, can tell you from anecdotal evidence is BS? Even massive letsgetalongerist Ian Parsley isn’t too hot on the survey (http://ianjamesparsley.wordpress.com/2012/12/01/public-affairs-beware-polls-telling-you-evident-rubbish/)
I find it also fairly convenient/funny that people talk about Nats needing to ‘convince’ unionists about the benefits of a UI or to win something akin to a ‘cultural war’ when this was never the case for Nats who happened to live North of a made up border. It makes the assumption that the union in it’s current guise is one won due to the consent of the ‘people’ rather than an expression of an ethno-religious preference.
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Totally agree about the garden centre prod myth as there must be a similar number of garden centre taigs. The only thing that I dont understand is yes the catholic community background is slowly increasing however the vote for nationalism has flat lined at 40-42%. Obviously more and more are voting Alliance but is there any other obvious reason?
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The fall in turnout by nationalists, its dropped continuously over the decade, to the point where it now matches the unionist turnout.
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Hi Boondock,
Look, I don’t have the numbers to hand but I would note that the Alliance’s growth in votes in Greater Belfast for instance appears to be thanks to the continued demise of the UUP as a force (liberal unionist vote in the main).
I would also venture the opinion that much of the increase of CNRs in the population is primarily within the age bracket of folks who are unable to vote or choose not to until a little older while the elderly in the main are of the PUL persuasion. Now, I am certain that O’Neill, Andrew Gallagher et al may come on here and say how awful it is that I am using a simple ethno-religious head count to tally with constitutional aspirations, yet again I would note that it is rather convenient that the majority of people who share their constitutional aspiration just so happen to be of the same ethno-religious persuasion and they also happen to be of that group.
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oneill,
regarding the stone throwing – hopefully that was a once off? If not have you had any communication from anyone in the area about addressing it. (No wonder people on all sides are doing a runner).
In relation to headcountery – I am largely in favour of it(at the moment) as it suits my political apsirations but I agree, it is hardly what the boy Tone had in mind – but outbreeding is a lot better than the other alternative recently employed – make love not war and all that.
What I used to feel uncomfortable with over on the late Horseman’s website (which I pointed out to him) was the positive talk of the Prod mortality rate – after all, demographic statiticis are based entirely of flesh and blood.
… sizeable but equally, as the state was borne out Orange headcountery, there there is delicous (for me and many Nats) irony if it falls due its Green equivalent.
The difficulty for me is that a percentage of Nats are probably Uncle Tomás’s and are probably growing in numbers with the Southern economy being holed below the waterline by Sean Fitzpatrick agus a chaidre and I think the census figures may well reflect this. As I mentioned on another of BDs thread – anyone who would intend to vote for a UI would suely put ‘Irish’ on the census form and I fear this % will be below 40% – although I obviously hope I am wrong. The likely disceprancy between those decribing themselves as ‘Irish’ and the ‘Community background’ estimate is a reaonable measure of the extent of the Uncle Tomás , Irish cultural Nats phenomeneon.
I suspect many (sensible, secular) Unionists will find themsleves somewhat keener on the ‘sectarian headcountery’ when the figures are fully released and those lurking in the (republican) paramilitary undergrowth will see good growth potential for the move away from love and back to war.
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It is surely going to be a lot more than about whether you are protestant and catholic? What about people who have mixed parents? Immigrants? Those who have lapsed from religion and their chilren?
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re. “It is surely going to be a lot more than about whether you are protestant and catholic? ”
Immigration and mixed parents are further reasons why ‘religious background is less important and the question on nationality (introduced for the first time in the census) should be the baromoter of (proper) National ideology.
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factual, sorry I misread your post – I should have just said – yes I agree with you.
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Your right but demographics make a nation and every extra catholic on the census helps no matter how crude that is.
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Not sure about this “every catholic helps”. Makes me feel ucomfortable as a republican as it seems the *antithesis of* republicanism to say such a thing.
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In some ways republicans should hope for a fall in the number of catholics as it will force us to take take seriously the idea of uniting the people – whether protestant or catholic.
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factual, I think as mentioned above even with an increase in the catholic pool of voters there will enough to encourage Nats parties to change tack – ie no clear sign of winning a vote for a UI in the forseeable.
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Factual you have to live in the real world. This is not 1798. The partition of Ireland created the mess we are currently in.
If partition is to go one of those factors of many that brings it about will be the numbers game. Every vote helps.
I know may non religious unionists and they are as orange as any free p. Your dream of winning these people will never happen.
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That suggests that the approach that republicans have taken in the past – including catholic counting and the campaign 69-94 – has been poor in terms of garnering unionist consent/assent/interest in a UI. It does not mean that different more progressive methods cannot work. They will take time however. But going *the right way* to a UI is important.
Sammy: agree.
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Factual, Oakleaf
Funnily enough I think you are both right. From a historical perspective Factual is right and while that doesn’t seem t apply to day, in order to have a sustainable republic worth living in, it is the course to ultimately follow. However, considering unionists seem to take every opportunity to diss the south and come across as some of the most mindlessly vociferous nationalists around and have taken every available opportunity to impress their majority by discriminating against nationalists, I think the census results will help floor that mindset. Robinson can’t take a shit without yelling catholic unionist these days so its obviously has him startled. Once the catholic community are in the majority it’ll force people to take a step back and reassess. Unless someone has the bright idea of repartition, unionists will have wonder why they are living in an artificial statelet with a catholic majority when its whole purpose was define an actual nation with a catholic majority.
Northern Ireland won’t crumble in one swoop. Once the trappings of orangeism are confined to the dustbin of history, the real business of sharing resources as well as people will begin before the purpose of a border becomes truely moribund.
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It wasn’t that long ago that people like Willie McCrea use to spit out the words minority roman catholics.
While unionists will be in a majority they no longer spit out venom like that out anymore due to changing demographics.
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At the current rate (which has been declining in recent years), there won’t be a catholic majority for 20 years. It’s entirely possible that there’ll be an atheist plurality before then. What are we going to do for those 20 years? Sit around and wait and keep playing the same sectarian game? Or are we going to make a genuine effort to convince Protestants, both soft unionists and undecideds of the benefits of a united Ireland? There are plenty of prods out there who declare themselves Irish, support Ireland in the rugby/cricket and read the Irish Times. Those are the people who the two parties, especially the SDLP, need to attract. It might even take a new party, one who accepts the protestant culture as another form of Irish and wants to bring it into the fold of a united Ireland.
There’s too much ‘northern ireland’-ism these days, e.g. ‘sure we’re all from Northern Ireland / this wee country’, and not enough ‘sure we’re all Irish’. And that won’t come just from political parties, but cultural institutions and media as well. For every day that these aren’t set up, we’ve ‘lost’ another Irishman and they’ve gained a Northern Irishman. This is where the battle lies, not in headcounts and certainly not in going back to war. Where are the letters being sent to RTE or TV3 to commission northern programmes? Including ones about Protestant culture. Where are the all-Ireland businesses or institutions? They all date from before partition. This country has always had a problem seeing the day-to-day minutae which have the real effect and get lost in headline grabbing ‘One group of nonsense-believers make up majority in the wee six.’
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Very well put Weid
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defy#
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Economically the next few years will be difficult for GB. For evidence of this check out the economic pages of the Torygraph. THe South, if it can receive any sort of accomodation regarding with ECB/IMF debt could even be back in a boom cycle, given 5 years of austerity, no spending and just about everything needs upgrading. What this means for Unicorns?
And what does it mean for liberal Protestants. Many have connections through education to Scotland where a referendum if it is to be carried will come from youthful passion unshackling fear and aspiring to creating their own destiny. That can’t be done in ‘Northern Ireland’ and what do these liberal Protesants have in common with ‘born again, unrational, Ribanna hating, empire fetish’ Unionists. This educated class can only become more marginalised within this NOrthern artificial state, and if thats how they feel then how in hell can there be so many supposed ‘Taig unicorns’.
My prediction is 810,000 catholics, which is a long way off a majority but it means that the status quo has to change. And it poses a huge dilemma for intelligent Unionists in how can they triumphay celebrate the forthcoming centenary anniveraries without alienating 46%+.
I believe that a very sizeable portion of educated Protesants, or small U’s can now be tempted into an All Ireland Framework. For this to work, personally, it will entain an acceptance that much symbolism in a new ireland will have to be jettisoned and that leadership of the quest for a new Ireland should be taken from Adams and formerly IRA elements and given to McNeill of Goldman Sacs. SF and Doherty in particular whoes Uncle rotted in a POW camp must disdain selfishness, and decide what is more important. For me that is the quest for ‘The Holy Quail’ a United Ireland. So I’d ditch Adams and allow an Umbrella group to lead the charge for a New Ireland. Such an umbrella grouping will convince many from the protesant tradition to break cover and address the final City Hall rally that the aspirations of Ulster can be reached in an All Ireland Framework.
It dont happen then with the plethora of anniversaries that are about to arrive and the passions that this will arise then if I, well we all know, including Oneill if he’s still here what ‘Northern Ireland’ entails living with….
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Mekonged I think the late horseman had the catholic number on 810000, he also nailed the overall population at 1810000, however he admitted himself he hadnt factored in immigartion which will probably bump the catholic numbers up to 860000 which as I have pointed out before doesnt help a united ireland but the headine figure will be a worry for some hence Peter Robinsons non-stop love affair with catholic unionists
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I had a few free days, and since I got interested around September again in the constitutional/reunification issue here i went through the wards. Its a small place, the sic counties, so I been to almost every ward in the last ten years. Was a motorcyclist. So personally it makes it a bit more interesting, and not a chore.
The lowest catholic community background I got was 800,000 and the highest I got was 835.000. 810,000 came out 3 of the five calculations. i have the Protestant community background at between 890,000 and 910,000. Immigrants or others are the balance.
Interesting for me is the Newtonards Road being displaced to the Ards Peninsula. I hope their not contemplating a leap across the sea to their supposed ancestral homeland. Most if they care to have a DNA test done will see there as much a Paddy has the rest of the 90% RESIDING ON THIS ISLE.
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Several assumptions being made here:
“Now, I am certain that O’Neill, Andrew Gallagher et al may come on here and say how awful it is that I am using a simple ethno-religious head count to tally with constitutional aspirations, yet again I would note that it is rather convenient that the majority of people who share their constitutional aspiration just so happen to be of the same ethno-religious persuasion and they also happen to be of that group.”
Football Cliches,
I won’t speak for Andrew but you have made one seriously wrong assumption here about me- have a guess where it is. Clue I don’t support the Glasgow team you naturally assume I would have. And that, if I may so, is Irish ethno-nationalism’s greatest present weakness encapsulated in a nutshell.
“I suspect many (sensible, secular) Unionists will find themsleves somewhat keener on the ‘sectarian headcountery’ when the figures are fully released and those lurking in the (republican) paramilitary undergrowth will see good growth potential for the move away from love and back to war”
Sammy Mac,
Yes, an increase in the catholic population and an increase in “others” actually might well help liberal unionism. As someone who considers himself British and Irish, a Northern Ireland remaining within the UK with a distinct Irish and Ulster identity will do me very well, thank you.
Look at the Robinson of 2012 and the Robinson of 1992. Look at the stagnation of the SDLP/SF vote since round about 1999/2000. Look at the increasing numbers no longer voting (ie the sectarian political bunfight no longer is as compelling as it was 15 years ago).
Also look what Robinson is relying on to achieve his political target (ie a shift in identity towards N.Irish, note not British) and look what O’Dowd is relying on to achieve a “United” Ireland:
“The reality is of course that the reason Mr Robinson seeks at every turn to proclaim the security of the union is very simple. He knows that the political and demographic reality is that a united Ireland is inevitable.”
“In the next number of weeks the census figures will be published. I have no doubt that those figures will demonstrate very clearly the constitutional trajectory that we are set on. Nationalists and Republicans have never been in a better or stronger political position since partition.”
Those good old euphemistic demographics eh;) As Professor Aughey points out on our facebook page, the “inevitability” argument is one we are quite content as Unionists to run with!
Re our school bus being attacked, my days of hiding behind the back seat are distantly in the past but it was a regular enough occurence or at least regular enough for that particular route to be discontinued. I am sure it was not an isolated problem in Belfast but I am sure it was not confined to one group of hooligans- the desecration of the Kingsmills Massacre monument with sectarian slogans at the weekend proves that sectarianism remains a community-wide problem.
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O’Neill,
‘I won’t speak for Andrew but you have made one seriously wrong assumption here about me- have a guess where it is. Clue I don’t support the Glasgow team you naturally assume I would have. And that, if I may so, is Irish ethno-nationalism’s greatest present weakness encapsulated in a nutshell.’
Good for you buddy! Hearts fan instead? You should come around here and elsewhere more often, it does make for an interesting read, especially as you and Andrew tend to share the same trait; not answering questions poised but answering others.
Seriously, are you REALLY trying to say that the VAST majority of people of a particular ethno-religious grouping just so happen to be unionists? Are you actually pretending that unionism, in the main, is a ‘normal’ aspiration in this country and that nearly every protestant back in the day and nowadays just so happen to be either unionist or unionist lite/letsgetalongerist? If so we really can’t take you too seriously now can we buddy?
Regarding the demise in the numbers voting, interesting point and assumptions but it could just as easily be said that people vote when they feel they can make or want to make a change. It also largely depends on what they are being asked to vote on, therefore, as you have your garden centre Prod, I am certain and know we have our GAA club Kafflik who don’t vote due to:
i) certain victory in their constituency for the party they may affiliate with; or
ii) defeat for the party they affiliate with; or
iii) they feel they cannot make a change; or
iv) insert a whole host of other reasons.
Have we any reliable, solid evidence as to why people are voting in smaller numbers nowadays as opposed to your assumptions made above? At the end of the day, to assume is to make an ass of you and me, so you are merely pissing in the wind buddy on that one of course.
Again, why is Robbo ‘courting’ Taigs on a podium when his party are outside City Hall seeming like they are from the 40s or how about the whole summer marching season? Yeah, let me know how that whole Kafflik outreach goes and keep telling yourself ‘I know sooooo many Kafflik Unionists, look at the NILT survey or Bele Tele/Lucid polls’, yet they all seemingly disappear come election day chap, why’s that? I’ll leave you to figure that out…
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“You should come around here and elsewhere more often, it does make for an interesting read, especially as you and Andrew tend to share the same trait; not answering questions poised but answering others.”
You made a lazy assumption on my community background based on my political beliefs, merely putting you right.
“Have we any reliable, solid evidence as to why people are voting in smaller numbers nowadays as opposed to your assumptions made above?”
No, of course not. We do know however that at the height of Troubles, voting turnout was much higher (sometimes by 20% plus percent) than it is today. The other three factors you mention were as appropriate then as they are now, so what else has changed?
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Wow!!! An actual Unicorn!!! What’s that like then? If it is any consolation, I know some lesser spotted Protestant Nats too. You’re right, it was a rather lazy observation on my part, yet let’s get back on point that you did not answer, shall we?
‘Seriously, are you REALLY trying to say that the VAST majority of people of a particular ethno-religious grouping just so happen to be unionists? Are you actually pretending that unionism, in the main, is a ‘normal’ aspiration in this country and that nearly every protestant back in the day and nowadays just so happen to be either unionist or unionist lite/letsgetalongerist? If so we really can’t take you too seriously now can we buddy?’
Of course, we know the answer to the above, it’s just I would like to hear what you have to say on the matter, something to warm my cockles so to speak.
‘No, of course not.’ Thought that, thanks for clearing up that you are merely making assumptions without any kind of evidence to back it up; that is correct, you have no evidence at all for your assumption, right?
‘We do know however that at the height of Troubles, voting turnout was much higher (sometimes by 20% plus percent) than it is today.’ – indeed we do, very good.
‘The other three factors you mention were as appropriate then as they are now, so what else has changed?’ – Really? As I do remember a certain part of the voting public who wanted to and did consistently abstain from voting, but I’ll take the bait and say that at the moment we have a perceived ineffectual government in place for a start? Care to add to my opening gambit with something backed by evidence or shall we see you pee in the wind yet again?
And finally,
‘Again, why is Robbo ‘courting’ Taigs on a podium when his party are outside City Hall seeming like they are from the 40s or how about the whole summer marching season? Yeah, let me know how that whole Kafflik outreach goes and keep telling yourself ‘I know sooooo many Kafflik Unionists, look at the NILT survey or Bele Tele/Lucid polls’, yet they all seemingly disappear come election day chap, why’s that? I’ll leave you to figure that out…’
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A large part of the decrease in Tyrone is dissillusionment that unification hasn’t been achieved coupled with the partitionist spite they put up with when they travel South. Hence in Mid Tyrone, Clogher Valley seats have been regained by a dwindling Unionist population and they’ve held the seat in 90% nationalist Torrent. But if we have increasing displays of Unionist hegemonic displays of triumphalism as 1918 to 1921 approach than I’m not sure how Republican aspirations will reamain is a state of stasis.
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The rest of your comment is purely subjective and occasionally offensive, so what’s the point in arguing?
You’ve put my opinion and I’ve put up mine, people can read them. We could continue on ad infinitum but it’s pretty pointless waste of time in that neither of us will be convinced and that the proportion of people reading a political point open to be persuaded either way is minimal. So adios.
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O’Neill,
Genuinely, I am sorry if I have offended you. I don’t think BD, the commentators here or indeed myself would want to scare or bully someone of a different POV away from here, so I shall let off a little and give you something of a by-ball, ok?
You have indeed put your opinion up and I challenged a number of your assumptions as well as highlighting that the vast majority of unionist votes just happen to be from a particular ethno-religious demographic or background, this is fairly uncontroversial stuff to most.
Now, would I be correct in guessing that you are not from a traditional ethno-religious background compared to most unionist voters? Good for you, I’ll guess you weighed up the pros and cons of particular constitutional arrangements and decided unionism was for you. Again, good for you, your decision at the end of the day.
However, my observation above is still a very valid one regarding ethno-religious background and is just as applicable to Nats as to unionists. To note how some Nats rely on simple head counting rather than winning an argument is somewhat rich as unionism and the Northern state were created thanks to a gerrymandered, sectarian head count, ‘a protestant parliament for a protestant people’ etc. etc. It’s akin to criticising the very rules you create and love merely because your opponent may one day actually win using your own rules against you.
On a serious note, will a Catholic majority deliver a UI? Yes and No. This state was born out of sectarianism yet with a Catholic majority if it this place is to remain in the union it will mean that sectarianism will have to be destroyed and that unionist parties as they currently exist will not be in charge or exist, it will have to be some other vehicle where Catholics feel comfortable. What I am saying is that the future constitutional arrangements of the North are no longer in the hands of mainly right wing, evangelical protestant pols who have a long tradition of not only hating Catholics but anything culturally Irish. No, the future is in the hands of Catholics like you O’Neill or myself and others who are more than likely culturally Irish and are willing to weigh up their options and may decide to stick or twist constitutionally.
This is why these numbers regarding the census or numbers being schooled matter constitutionally..
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Hi Mekonged,
I was wondering if you would have any figures for the ‘large decrease in Tyrone’ and confirm what it is specifically in relation to (voting figures, schooling etc.)
Further, is this just anecdotal evidence on your part form when you are in Tyrone or something else, like a survey? I would note that there is a rather large number of Tyrone folk out here in Australia at the moment, as well as a number I met in bars in NYC 2 weeks ago when I was there so I would venture that the downturn in construction and the knock-on effects this has had would also contribute to a decrease in voters. I did berate these lads on not postal voting, something some didn’t know they could do, but some noted they wouldn’t vote unless they were home (too much hassle). Further, I know of quite a few planning on coming on out here who haven’t ventured, I suspect you all know of many more planning on coming out here, NZ, US, Canada or the Middle East for work, right?
As an aside and apologies to Jon Stewart for stealing his line but talk over on Bull Shit Mountain with Mick et al talking up Robbo and his Kafflik outreach and how he is creating political space (it’s amazing what hot air can do) whilst we have ‘a crisis in political nationalism’ is pretty amazing stuff. What has changed over the past year or two in the North? I ask you to name me anything significant that has happened and how this may have detrimentally effected nationalism.
We have the SDLP finally getting its act together, we have BCC being brought into the 21st century regarding flags and the electorate together with small steps in respecting the Irish language thanks to SF and the SDLP, together with the APNI , we have Declan Kearney getting out in front and trying to move the process on with talks regarding truth and reconciliation. What have unionists got at the moment? I remind you of the marching season, Nelson McCausland’s call to arms for civil disobedience, Robbo becoming somewhat desperate with a Kafflik outreach, anytime that wee Seamus Allister opens his mouth, Poots and his homophobia or how about how unionism in general (with some notable and honorable exceptions) were on the wrong side of history regarding the vote on same-sex marriage?
Life is very tough at the moment for everyone but I do not believe that political nationalism is going though something of a crisis of any kind, nor do I think that Nats are either, just look at those like Charlie, Paddy Reilly, FJH, BD or Ulick keeping the replies up at Bullshit Mountain and holding arguments to account.
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Labour MP threatens Alliance Party over Belfast City Hall flag flap.
http://m.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/latest/council-to-vote-on-union-flag-at-city-hall-1-4547668
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Yes its anecdotal FC, but politics, the national question is always there in every engagement and there is little enthusiasm for Stormont among Tyrone Gaels and a strong feeling that something has to give. So if Unionists have a brain they’ll tone-down the centennial celebrations because 70% nationalist Tyrone may lose patience and wee Bernadette may be on hand to lead a 50,000 Coalisland-Dungannon march to remember the shame of Irish Partition. Will that be a catalyst? It all be peaceful though; Irish Protestants, which well they know have nothing to fear in Tyrone or Fermanagh. But then whats the point of them being proud in a State they can’t risk celebrating in 1918.
Interesting that you think O’Neill is from a Catholic background. I wonder has he an opinion that nearly 10%of SF’s support as BelTel’s Clarke indicates is from the Protestant community.
Its also a right of passage for Tyrone folk to spend a few years on the global highway,
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Hi Mekonged,
There are a whole stack of Tyrone folk anywhere I go, a good and bad thing if you are from North Armagh like myself 🙂
Re O’Neill, in fairness, I made a lazy assumption he was of the lost tribe of Jerusalem and he said he wasn’t; of course, he could be from another but as he has vacated the premises and appears unwilling to answer what I feel are legitimate points raised we may never know.
I can definitely understand the massive frustration out there with the executive, but I would note that this is not solely a Nat problem but appears to be right across the board. We are in a massive slump and government is unable to do anything about. It is flailing from side to side and we are worse for it.
Regarding unionists having a brain and toning it all down, I wouldn’t hold my breath, they are the gift that keeps on giving. The are about to be told that their natural majority is shrinking while their sworn enemies are increasing, the symbolism of the state is being hollowed out slowly (see the butcher’s apron being taken down most days of the year at City Hall) and they could have struck a simple compromise but instead dug their heels in instead; they’re not that clever at times.
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Pingback: What connects the NI Census figures, the Union Flag and Peter Robinson’s ‘Catholic Outreach’? | footballcliches
http://www.belfastcity.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/92382
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Hobo,
Great and timely link ta.
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29-21 vote for the Alliance Party amendment on flying the Union flag at Belfast City Hall only on certain days.
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Unionist outreach and a shared future in action, Loyalist style, on the streets of Belfast tonight.
It may be 2012 but for some, it is still 1690, let alone 1922. The Unionist politicians have been stoking this up for days. Perhaps Nelson McCausland may have some words for us tonight?
The Short Strand is under attack tonight. Again.
Loyalism, when it suffers what it perceives as a setback. always, I repeat, always responds with violence or the threat of violence. I cannot think of an exception.
The sad thing is that the DUP cannot escape responsibility for this one.
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I know the protest was organised by the Protestant Action against that sort of thing (or some such name ) but I suspect that those who have caused the trouble may well be those same Catholics who have recently flocked to the DUP and are determined to prove their loyalty to the union.
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Sammy,
You are undoubtedly correct. I’ve never seen such behaviour from a group of unionists before. Sure I believe a similar group marched up Divis st some years ago supporting the retention of a Tricolour in a shop window, 1964 I think it was?
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Jim Allistairs view on demographics and their importance, not to mention stirring up the rabble
http://tuv.org.uk/press-releases/view/1701/tearing-down-national-flag-a-shame-and-disgrace
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Yes, silly Jimbo doesnt seem to realise that although the boundaries wont change in Unionism’s favour large swathes of Catholic voters who formerly voted for SF will be switching to the DUP – thus ensuring that the decline in Unionist representation will be reversed.
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Exactly Sammy lol,
Perhaps he knows something Peter doesn’t?
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Interesting if herself strays out on to lawns Hillsborough Castle and says a few words about the carry on.
Clearly, as mentioned over on FJHs site the parades commission needs to extend its remit to thse types of protests – they would have resticted numbers etc and not allowed the road to be blocked – nor put the Police in the impossible position they were put in.
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