Why are Unionists so opposed to a border poll as called for by Declan Kearney of Sinn Fein this week?
I’ve spent the last few days trying to figure this out.
Answers on a virtual postcard please………….
Who’s afraid of the Border Poll?
28 Sunday Oct 2012
Posted in Uncategorized
"We in coming days may be" 
Unionists have no problem wasting money fighting wars in the Middle East. But a border poll in the Six Counties is a waste of money. Hmmm
LikeLike
We will support the UK mainstream position on foreign affairs. Since unionism has become the pre-eminent philosophy in northern Ireland, that has always been the case. It’s just domestic policy we sometimes get upset at (and usually that’s about sex!).
LikeLike
Ah but I and many others do not support the UK position on foreign policy.
“unionism has become the pre-eminent philosophy in northern Ireland” Please expand on this idea?
LikeLike
An excellent question BD.
I am not a psychologist or psychiatrist but can only offer an opinion. I believe it is due to the fact that for unionists you have a large, sizable minority who constantly question the very existence of something that they love and want. Whilst they look to perfidious Albion for sanctuary and salvation, they have also sowed the seeds for their demise by giving the nod to the principle of consent for the North to be part of the South. Do many other countries, states, ‘nations;, or statelets have this in their own DNA? Probably not? They (unionists) have to constantly look over their shoulder and hope to god that 50% + 1 never materialises otherwise it’s all over for them.
That’s my 2 cents folks, I may be wrong, may be slightly right, but who knows?
LikeLike
What worries them, I think, is that the question is no longer if, but when. The dynamic is no longer “Off the agenda” or ” Not in a lifetime” but “How”. The discussion shifts to the mechanics. The dynamic changes and suddenly they will be arguing a forgotten argument yet again.
LikeLike
I should have waited to reply!!
Stephen King supposedly briefed journos on the UUP essentially walking the North into a UI on decent terms during the GFA talks. I think he understood the nature of the North, how the likes of you, FJH, Hobo, Sammy and I won’t go away. How people of our ethnic group will become the majority and how while you may be able to convince some to be in favour of his political disposition, I sincerely think he will be unable to convince more and more to his flag.
I know I may come across as somewhat uncompromising at times (my debate with Andrew Gallagher over at Enda’s blog being a perfect example), and that is largely to do with having an alias for me and is not how I am in the main in person (I like being contrary but civil and not falling out with someone, not that I’ve fallen out with AG), but on this issue I cannot see how they can keep up the pretence. They have really f**ked over a massive minority before hand and they haven’t forgotten about it. They never seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot!
LikeLike
Well the Belfast Telegraph, the “Lively” times survey and Slugger think there’s no chance it’ll pass so why are they so worried? Unless of course they are worried about the integrity of their polls…….. hmmmmm. I’m not concerned in the slightest
LikeLike
Barry Norman can run but he cannot hide.
LikeLike
Oh, I am certain they would win a vote if it were to occur now or for the next 5 years or so, but I wonder what will happen as soon as the population becomes 50.1% Catholic.
Now, I do not for one second imagine that it will be 50.1% Nat, but the point is that unionist parties essentially are for Protestants, and that’s fine with me. I have no problem with that, but I just hate hearing the spiel that is otherwise.
LikeLike
What annoys me is that Unionist Parties are Protestant parties precisely because they insist they are. Always have done until the last year or so when it suddenly dawned on the brighter members that if they maintained that position they were walking into a reunited Ireland. Hence the panic! š I am not aware of either Nationalist party limiting themselves to any religious aspect
LikeLike
Oh no, they are Protestant parties, that’s not up for discussion in the main. The ‘outreach’ is pretty cynical and is shown up all the time.
I am minded of what Cardinal O’Fiach said about the situation up here (I hope I am at worst paraphrasing):
‘For Nationalists the troubles are about nationality, but for unionists the troubles are about religion.’
I think this may be why I always sneer when foreigners make out that this was all about religion, when it was only a dimension of why.
LikeLike
I too get seriously annoyed when it is suggested it is about Religion. I have Protestant family members, Mrs Bangordub is a protestant (Although her religious observance is as minimal as mine) I work with those of all Religions and none. I grew up in Dublin where the question was never asked or wondered about. I can recite lists of prominent protestants who have participated in and prospered as equals in the “Free State”. Ok, I’ll calm down……
LikeLike
Preaching to the choir BD, my Uncle is from Holywood and is a Nat now, which is odd seeing the case over at a non-existent blog š
You know why they make it into a religious issue, they are a different ‘nation’ of course…
LikeLike
Yep, Religion truly has been used as an opiate here
Of course if they were truly religious they would note the quote about rendering unto Caesar etc. I recall an elderly Christian Brother many many years ago warning us never to quote the Bible in support of an argument. He warned us there would always be half a dozen counter arguments present in the same text!!!!
Never a truer word. (Amazing how I remembered that as I was half way through a biblical quote – 20 years down the line )
LikeLike
I can’t speak for the political parties but there is no fear of a border poll here. Let’s remember that the last one was boycotted by virtually all of the Nationalist community in the 70’s; that will not happen with any substantial section of the people of Northern Ireland now.
A border poll may well be divisive. No matter what way the vote falls, someone will set a target number and claim that if it is below this (say, 60% pro-Union), then it is just a matter of time. That seems to be the attitude of those who have responded so far, although not couched in terms of a figure.
I personally believe that this part of the United Kingdom will so remain for at least the next 100 years. However, it is always much harder to maintain than “progress,” for that is what the two ideologies here are structured as. Unionism is about the status quo, Nationalism is about a goal. And no matter how poor a goal, it is always something to aim at and hope for. Mind you, sometimes it’s the hope that kills you (and I speak as a Glentoran supporter!!).
LikeLike
My condolences on the Glens supporting, would you not consider a switch to Cliftonville? š (Shamrock Rovers man myself)
It’s interesting the point you make about Unionism aiming to maintain the status quo. I agree with you ! The problem I think is that nothing stays constant, there is always change and I think the failure of Political Unionism is that it has never led that change or prepared it’s electorate for it.
Hence there is only a reaction to events, usually of the no, no, no or never, never variety. Would it not be better to be involved in driving change rather than doing the King Canute tango?
LikeLike
Belfast Telegraph online poll
Should we have a border poll?
Yes 56%
No 44%
LikeLike
Thanks Hobo,
That is interesting as I would like to know the makeup of the yes voters. Mind you, it’s a Bel Tel Poll and therefore probably madness. They’ll probably run it on their front page tomorrow!
LikeLike
What would we do if we didn’t have the Belfast Telegraph to tell us what celebs are saying on Twitter?
LikeLike
I have already had a chat with football cliches over on Judecollins blog about this. I am all for a united Ireland but my concern with a referendum now is that it will be a disappointing result. As has been mentioned before every election in Northern Ireland is almost a mini referendum anyway and currently nationalist parties will gain 40-45% support. however I am certain in a border poll that will drop to about 30% simply because a number of CNR will be happy to stick with status quo knowing that at the moment a United Ireland is unrealistic and will only vote yes in a border poll when they feel there is a chance of winning which in my opinion is still 15 years away at least!
LikeLike
Hi Boondock,
Apologies for the delay with the reply, just you went under ‘anonymous’ over on Jude’s page, that and I have been away sorting a few things out vis a vis going to Australia next week.
I note you said that those who don’t vote for unionist parties cannot claim to call themselves unionists, yet the same question can easily be applied to Nats, the 15% or so you predict who would vote to remain in the union, would they be Nats in this instance? Or would they merely be pragmatic about the whole thing while unionists would be dogmatic?
We ‘know’ the results in many elections, yet we have them all the time, right? Knowing the result of something before it happens is no reason not to have an election, so people should come up with a better reason for why we should not have a referendum on this matter.
LikeLike
fc,
re. “Knowing the result of something before it happens is no reason not to have an election”.
Arguing for something which will probably undermine your ideological postion is not generally a good idea. As Gregory Campbell points out (perhaps he read my earlier comment) those who favour the ‘military’ route to a UI i.e. the dissers are probably the biggest potential winners – along of course with Unionism.
There is a battle going on here – largely a battle of spin between the DUP and SF and SF presumably have enough sense to keep it that way.
To start a serious debate in the South and the North on this issue when people, particulalry in the South, are almost at the end of their economic tether is just plain silly.
LikeLike
Sammy,
People in the South are now on an upward economic curve. Things are turning big style. The predictions of economic armageddon are proving foundless and the economy is picking up again big style. Would ye like some figures to back this up?
LikeLike
I would normally agree with you football cliches but I honestly think nationalists are more fickle on the subject, they will happily vote for nationalist parties as they want their best interest protected but there is also a large number who are not bothered about the border especially considering the current economic circumstances. Thats not to say they will not become very supportive of a UI in the near future, whether thats down to some sort of tipping point with demographics or it could be an economic reason if the Republics economy booms again or it could be that the parading nonsense degenerates and brings back old sores. Who knows but I do believe a poll in the next year or 2 will see support for a UI at rock bottom and that will only boost Unionist morale.
Ps I do predict a bit of scare for unionism in the census and I think protestant community background will be below 50% with nationalist community background very close behind but as stated before we must factor in pro-union catholics, large catholic immigrant population and the large number of catholics who arent of voting age, all the same interesting times lie ahead!
LikeLike
Boondock,
Very good points in there if I may say, I think a clearing of the air is always a good thing if it helps us to establish where we all stand now
LikeLike
Sammy,
‘Arguing for something which will probably undermine your ideological postion is not generally a good idea. As Gregory Campbell points out (perhaps he read my earlier comment) those who favour the āmilitaryā route to a UI i.e. the dissers are probably the biggest potential winners ā along of course with Unionism.’
How does it ‘undermine’ a position? You need to expand on that as we all ‘know’ what the result would be in this instance, right?
‘To start a serious debate in the South and the North on this issue when people, particulalry in the South, are almost at the end of their economic tether is just plain silly’
They’re going to have to have this discussion at some point, why not now? They discuss a lot of different issues all the time, I trust the electorate will be able to squeeze in a chat or a thought on reunification too as it may not be as complicated as another European treaty, but sure who knows?
Boondock,
How about you answer my question, are Nats not Nats if they vote to remain in the union as you have noted that unionists who vote to join a UI are no longer unionists.It’s just you seem to make something slightly complicated out to be particularly simple, that or unionists are incapable of rational thought and are merely dogmatic? š If the latter, I would most definitely agree.
I think the point of having this vote, one were we all ‘know’ the result, is the fact we get to open up the debate to everyone, try and discuss the pros and cons of the proposed venture and further, as has been noted below, a referendum on the matter must be called every number of years thereafter. It focuses the minds of all and as the demographics change (something we are all, in the main, in agreement on).
LikeLike
Ok fair point some nationalists are fair weather nationalists and when it suits their pocket they can become a temporary unionist lol. I do agree that a debate on the subject is needed because even SF and their green paper seemed very vague. Will the 6 counties be run directly from Dublin, will 6 or even 9 ulster counties have autonomy and pretty much a similar set up to the existing assembly and if that is the case will the other provinces have local assemblies in a federal Ireland. All interesting questions and theories of course a sensible debate with unionism will probably deteriorate quite quickly and any green doomsday scenario will probably be solved with re-partition and we all know that wont solve anything but lets be honest I wouldnt put it past a British government to try it again.
LikeLike
Boondock,
All very good questions. TBH, An Sionnach Fionn and Sammy may have even swayed me to their side after having heard their thinking on the matter. A long process with an election to focus on a specific period that would naturally draw many more Nats to the ‘flag’ so to speak. I would go along with this as it helps explain why we should delay a vote on the matter.
Further, I am not too certain you would get many answers on how this place would be run post reunification, merely suggestions, but I would imagine that Stormont would survive for some protracted period of time merely to assuage some nerves. Oh and we might go back into the commonwealth too, though I always have a little chuckle at that one, such a waste of space.
LikeLike
I agree with carrickally,I dont think Unionists voters will fear an election I suppose Unionist polticians will worry about a low turnout for what is must be considered a pretty safe bet.
I think it is a mistake for Nationalists to ask for something that will probably undermine political morale and it may well be a case of bluff by SF as they probably effectively have a veto on any poll – they can argue over the wording or the need for simultaneous poll in the South, or devo-max, or a number of things that mean there will be no agreement between them and the DUP – and therefore no poll.
It was a big mistake by the SNP to go for a poll and it would be an even bigger mistake by SF-SDLP with the dissers claiming any (bad) result suggests the only road to unity is via the gun and Unionists indulging in a bout of political triumphalism.
If the DUP had an sense they would call SF’s bluff.
LikeLike
It’s not the DUP’s call – they don’t have any say in whether a border poll is called or not. The conditions for a border poll are set out in the GFA in black and white, and there’s nothing SF or anyone else can do about it. It’s just empty posturing.
Unionists tend to use more religion in their politics, but it’s not completely one-sided. It was O’Connell himself who linked the issues of Catholic Emancipation and Repeal. And you can’t deny the “special position” of the Catholic Church – well diluted these days but still noticeable.
I am not aware of either Nationalist party limiting themselves to any religious aspect
… and yet the number of Protestants in either Nationalist party remains stubbornly as small as the number of Catholics in the Unionist parties. I’ve been saying for years that the side that first catches on to the importance of seducing the other side will win. Neither one has anything to be proud of at the moment.
LikeLike
If the plain people of Ulster and the political parties are clamouring for a poll then the SOS will oblige (politically good for the Tories to have a vote in favour of the Union).
If SF successfully ignited this into a major political issue then a border poll would probably follow. If SF have any sense they wont try and cause an such ignition and if the DUP have, they will.
LikeLike
Should we hold a poll on a United Ireland?
61% yes
39% no
Source Belfast Telegraph online poll
LikeLike
Over on another blog i commented on how the increasing reliance on BT polls by DUP reps doesn’t get taken up.
there was another a week ago and is not been actively voted on and the current reslut to the question:
“Do you agree with Enda Kenny that a United Ireland is inevitable?”
Yes 51%
No 49%
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/enda-kenny-united-ireland-poll-16224434.html
Boondock,
The wording of the question would be important to deal with your concern.
If it was something that satisfied both the UI ASAP and UI ultimately crowds.
“Do you agree, that under agreed conditions, the two jurisdictions of Ireland should become one in the future?”
Charlie,
LikeLike
A border poll would lead to a green paper on Irish Unity. People need to know exactly what they are voting for. It would also lead to economic think tanks outlining how much would be saved from the ending of duplication of services and how much extra tax revenue would be raised from the transfer of fiscal powers. Would the sum of savings and extra revenues after the rebalancing of the Norths economy, which would inevitably happen in a UI be greater than the current British subvention? Maybe it is the answer to this that Unionists are afraid of.
LikeLike
Enda,
Nail on the head.
LikeLike
To be frank, making out that Unionists are afraid of a poll is really a bit of Nat. spin – the real losers from a poll are likely to be Nats and the real winners are likley to be Unionists – the ones who would really fear the result are the Nats.
FF have fecked the Southern economy for the forseeable – SF should tell it like it is – ie that FF fecked it up and we have to get the Southern show back on the road before asking the Plain People (North and South) about something that is now not remotely economically feasible.
LikeLike
Enda,
Would the sum of savings and extra revenues after the rebalancing of the Norths economy, which would inevitably happen in a UI
You’re making a giant, unsupported leap there. Administrative reorganisations are notorious for failing to produce promised savings. Economically deprived areas are stubbornly resistant to change, no matter what government is in charge. There are good arguments for erasing the border, but saving pennies is not one of them.
LikeLike
BD,
Going back to your original question. Rather than me speaking on behalf of all Nats, let me say – that I am personally afraid of a border poll .
Anyone else who considers themselves a Nat. and is not afraid must therefore think it will be a ‘good’ outcome – it is counter intuitive to suggest otherwise.
Regarding “People in the South are now on an upward economic cureve. Things are turning big style.” The last budget was presented to the German parliament before the dail, we have the IMF running the country, we have not got the deal on bank debt through the EU legal hoops etc.
In these extraordinary economic circumstances it makes no sense to either ask the Plain People of the South if they would like some more debt or to ask the Plain People of the North if they would like to swap their financial backers.
If nothing else due care and attnetion and consideration should be given to the timing of any poll – clealry now is not a good time.
If the DUP had any sense – and I supect the UUP will actually say they are in favour – they would be demanding a border poll just like the Tories did to entrap the SNP in opting for one.
LikeLike
Sammy,
Leaving aside the economic argument which has been ongoing for a while between us, I am in agreement with Enda’s argument that a border poll will open up the whole argument in a broad sense. It will enable us all to discuss what may happen. As a Nationalist, my side may not win but it will enable everyone to engage in the what if’s and the what for’s.
It will polarise and it will make people think. Good thing in my view
LikeLike
BD,
RE. “Leaving aside the economic argument which has been ongoing for a while between us”
You simply can’t do that, many including myself, saw the economic progress in the South as a reason for being optimistic about the prospect of a UI but now that is the reverse I’m suitably pessimistic.
Whatever about any economic debate and Irish growth versus Ulster growth or British growth or the compartiive GPD figures – when you have the IMF running our country and it is unlear if and when we can pay our National debts THAT IS VERY BAD not only is it very bad but the Plain People of the South have massive debts, negative equity, pay cuts on a scale unseen in the North and the Plain People of the South strongly believe their situation is very very bad.it would be a crazy time tactically to start a debate.
FC,
The impact of the Southern economic collapse in the South on Nortern voters is harder to judge – but I think it is safe to say it wont be postive.
My view is that in 3 years time when and if the dust has settled economically in the South and 1916 is on the horizon and Neil Jordan or Mel Gibson has made a film about the Rebellion and SF have canvassed extensivley in the US for an injection of capital for Project United Ireland and hopefully the world economic climate has also changed for the better and armed with reasonably good and improving census results – then might be a time to have a pop.
LikeLike
Sammy,
My argument is twofold.
On the one hand the South is far far ahead economically of where the North is.
It is recovering from a massive mess but it is recovering from a very strong position.
Secondly, the argument for a reunited Island is not economic. It is inherent. It is part of what I am and many others are part of I suspect. It is nothing to do with money.
I have no fear whatsoever of a poll.
LikeLike
My own position is ismilar to yours on a UI, but timing is crucial and this just looks like a bit of ill thought out political-bravado by SF.
The 1916 celebrations in Belfast and Dublin might be a good launch pad (economics permitting) for a campaign for a border poll and particualry so if the Stormo elections have gone well for Nats.
LikeLike
My own views would echo Sammy above.
It is the wrong time for a border poll. However it is the right time to start preparing for a border poll.
The SNP plan of a long campaign leading up to the independence referendum is the right one to follow (however astray Alex Slamond and the SNP may have gone recently with their poorly thought-out and executed policy changes).
A border poll in and around 1916 is the target we should be arranging for and putting in the groundwork now. Even if that was to fail another poll could be held in 2020/21. Both would occur at a time of heightened political and historical awareness with Nationalist/Republican sentiment potentially running high amongst the electorates north and south. And hopefully an economic upturn, both in Ireland and globally.
That to me would seem a smarter move than a poll in 2013.
LikeLike
Anyone who mentions economics need look no further than 2000-2005, when the economies north and south were perhaps at their starkest…. How many unionists were clammering to be part of a united ireland then?
Not one. Why? because it’s not who the majority feel they are. Now that the south in trouble (not that it’s even worse than up here) the usual characters are using it as a stick to beat people with. Its just time for nationalists to redouble our efforts as their is now a cocky unfounded complacency among unionist politicians that should be exploited. e.g. Given the bravado about no prospect about united ireland etc…., it should be an opportunity to push for more north-south bodies, programmes resource pooling, so when things do pick up, they are in place. Every crisis is an opportunity.
LikeLike
Actually, according to the NILT poll, there was a big drop in support for a UI in 2007, about the time of the economic crash in the south and Europe generally.
Also it’s important to note that only about 50% of registered voters voted at the last election, if unionists got about 50% of that vote, thats 25% of voters who vote unionist, so there is a lot of undecided or apathetic voters to try and win over.
LikeLike
To open with a further pessimistic take on a border poll – there are a large number of immigrants in Ulster – many may well vote with the community they live in e.g. with SF if in a Nat area or the DUP if in a Unionist area or perhaps not vote at all – what we might call integrating.
When it would come to a border poll then presumably economic factors will be far more important than ideological ones – and whichever horse appears to be the most economically fit will surely get their backing.
It would be interesting to see the results of a survey of the immmigrant community – even a relatively small sample (as seems to be the order of the day with recent surveys).
What is the best/any guesstimate of the number of immigrants? Presumably large numbers of them may not have bothered registering to vote?
BD,
Apart from your goodself, I wonder if there is any evidence of Southern ‘immigration’ into the North, presumably along the border there must be quite a bit of driving to work across the international frontier but relatively few Southerners actually settling in Ulster? Again interesting if any stats. Not sure what the rules are regarding the right to vote in the North if you are from the South but say renting a property?
Just thought I would close with something positive – even if a bit unlikely – about the oul border poll.
LikeLike
Sammy,
Not wishing to stray from the discussion here but to answer your question I am aware of quite a large number of us Southerners living here. On my quiet small cul de sac in Bangor there are at least 3 of us including a fellow Dub š
I have joined in a discussion as Gaelge in a local restaurant a week ago which was novel to say the least. We can all vote here as long as we register but I suspect the numbers are low. I know that increasing numbers of students are enrolling in Northern Universities but students tend not to vote. PS: I have lived here for 6 years but am regarded as a blow in nevertheless, I take great exception if I am viewed as a foreigner. My family are originally from North of the border and although my accent is that of a Dub my roots are those of an ancient Ulster clan
LikeLike
BD,
re.. “We can all vote here as long as we register but I suspect the numbers are low.”
I suspect there is some residency requirement – otherwise if SF organise enough busses from the GPO the poll result will be in the bag. Was wondering what is actually required to register – perhaps it is just an address?
LikeLike
Sammy, I’m not sure to be honest. I have an address but I’ll check whats needed. Good question
Of course I believe a valid poll involves us all, North and South same as the 1919 vote, which would negate the need for the busses?
LikeLike
…I’ll get the buses ready just in case.
LikeLike
Sammy,
From the Registration form:
We need one form for each person.
ā¢ You must give your date of birth and your National Insurance number and sign the form yourself – no-one
else can sign it for you.
ā¢ You must be a British, Irish, Commonwealth or European Union citizen, and you must give your nationality
on the form.
ā¢ You must have lived in Northern Ireland for the last three months.
LikeLike
We’ll have them all booked up for a big parade!
BD asked me ages ago to elaborate on unionism as the pre-eminent political philosophy of northern Ireland. I purposefully used the small n there to attempt a time-frame.
I would date unionism’s populist rise as the period between 1860-1886. This co-incides with the growth of the town of Belfast and the industrialisation of the area stretching down towards Lisburn and across the Lagan.
It gave Ulster a metropolis as a (not very cultured but) cultural capital and whilst Dublin was still recognised as the Irish metropolis and second city of Empire in the first half of the 19th century, the feeling of decline was already there by 1850.
I wish I can remember the sources for this that I read very recently, I’m pretty sure it wasn’t Belfast’s Unholy War but for the life of me I can’t place this “shift” quote.
Sorry, I feel I’m waffling badly here, many things current on my mind!
LikeLike
carrickally
You were doing well there till you lost your train of thought! I’m genuinely interested in this. Belfast was always seen as the industrial centre of Ireland in the 1900’s while Dublin was seen as the Political hub. Even now, Dublin is not an industrial centre, it has reinvented itself somewhat as a high tech, artistic and financial centre. I would suggest that Belfast needs a similar reinvention?
LikeLike
Tell me about it! New business venture for the missus, new job for me being hammered out tomorrow morning, it’s all go here.
Dublin’s lack of industry (although manufacture of foodstuffs was important) is quite baffling. They had the same problems to contend with as Belfast and should have been at an advantage, with the distance to England being much less.
I was having a light discussion over lunch today with a pretty big player in the hospitality market who was keen on reducing unemployment through what I could only see as backwards, vanity engineering projects. To me, NI needs to be redeveloped as a “green” hub.
An energy revolution is coming.
LikeLike
BD,
RE. “You must have lived in Northern Ireland for the last three months.”
Jeez, the result is in the bag – all we need is a Northern Address* and shed load of buses(carrickally – we’ll use CĆ³ras Iompair Ćireann so). The buses would need perhaps to make 3 trips? Once to show up at the accomodation, once to register and once to vote?
*Nationalists in the North could adopt a Southerner for 3 months and be prepared to swear blind that their Southerner was there for 3 months.
LikeLike
Sammy,
Read the rest of my post!
I don’t subscibe to a partitionist viewpoint my friend.
LikeLike
bd,
“I donāt subscibe to a partitionist viewpoint my friend.”
Neither do I – but there is the annoying little matter of reality that we have to contend with.
LikeLike
Yep Sammy and we signed up to it a few years ago.
I won’t be bussing up my friends and it would be silly if I did. But if we open up the discussion it surely is a good thing?
LikeLike
bd,
“I wonāt be bussing up my friends and it would be silly if I did”
… and you call yourself a republican – deep shame.
I think the debate should be predicated with the issue of affordability otherwise there is a danger of alienating potential supporters who have other more pressing concerns – having the debate now in my opinion risks doing that if there is a suggestion of having a poll before the South turns the economic corner (i.e. no more IMF and able to borrow money without difficulty/EU approval)
LikeLike
3 months doesnt sound very long compare that to myself who was born and bred in Belfast but now live abroad and will not get a vote on any such referendum.
LikeLike
Boondock,
You open up another very relevant argument. For what it’s worth I agree that emigrants should have a vote
LikeLike
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/time-for-referendum.html?m=1
LikeLike
Whether a border poll is held or not, the real question for Nationalist (and I’m one myself) is what is the advantage of a united Ireland.
Some people here have advanced an argument based on the economic merit of ending partition. I’m sure a Unionist (probably more plausibly) would argue the reverse. Personally, I find it very unsettling that national identity could be reduced down to mercenary calculation. Besides if it’s money we’re after why not hold a border poll to join Germany?
Nor, I think, can a Nationalist in the North plausible argue that a united Ireland is needed to end discrimination against Catholics. I’m not trying to minimise the injustices of the past, which as we all know were legion, but can any Catholic today claim not to have a fair chance in the North? On the contrary, I’ve read plenty of articles on Catholics being a majority in universities, approaching 50% the job market and Unionist brain-drain to GB. So, regardless of the constitutional arrangement, Catholic could very well have the whip hand in the North.
Other arguments people might have:
one island = one country – unless it’s a big island with Scotland at the top…
800 years, the Famine, the Tans…! – so you’re just a prisoner of history, without free will. Good job you weren’t adopted by Ivor and Georgina from Carrickfergus?
Support for American Imperial wars v neutrality – lets not mention US military flights through Shannon or the Irish Army in Afghanistan
monarchy v a republic – really does anyone care about this?
So why support a united Ireland? Maybe it’s not a rational thing at all, immune from argument and persuasion; it just is.
LikeLike
It’s great that someone is thinking about these things. Lots of polls really need to be conducted, including in strongly loyalist areas, find out people’s thinking on the subject, if they could be convinced to vote for UI and if so, why?
The basic reason for a UI is that we’re different from the UK and we’re better together, we’re better able to look after ourselves in our own best interests, not the best interests of London or the south-east of England.
LikeLike
http://hoboroadpoliticalhighway.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/top-ten-most-prosperous-countries-in.html?m=0
LikeLike
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Former-President-Bill-Clinton-claims-Mitt-Romney-will-come-after-Irish-next-177233161.html?mob-ua=Y
LikeLike
Although largely agin a border poll in the immediate future (pre 2016) it would be interesting to discuss/understand what question/s could be asked and if legally it Iis simply down to SOS(my understanding)- and what cunsultative rights the Souhern government has.and if the SOS agrees that there should be a ‘joint’ referendum. Personaly, I would liketo see a devomax(the everything but) option on any poll – if as the British governmment has conceded in the GFA legisaltion, it is up to the plain people of Ireland North and South – to decide the future of Ulster – then we (the Irish) should be allowed to frame the questions?
So in essence we could do with talks about border polls – a la talks about about talks.
LikeLike
LikeLike