This morning, the first results have been released from last years NI Census.
The key findings are:
- The total population inNorthern Irelandis now 1,810,900 an increase of 7% since the previous Census in 2001
- Ireland, as a whole, now has a total population of 6.4 million.
- Children up to the age of 15 have decreased by 9% although, interestingly, there is an increase of 10% in children up to the age of 3.
- The median age in NI has increased from 35 to 38 – The population is ageing.
- There has been a marked change in average household sizes with a trend towards smaller households. 58% are now households of 2 or less.
These are headline figures however and we must wait until September for more detailed information. It is difficult to extract more meaningful information until then such as geographic spread, demographic background and potential trends.
"We in coming days may be" 
Guess who has been doing some number crunching?
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/census-results-phase-1.html
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We can take from this that the age of 37.5 represents the medium age of the population (half the population is aged under 37.5 years and half the population is aged over 37.5 years). This is interesting because the 2001 census showed that the tipping point between the two main religous groups was age 27.5. That is those people under the age of 27.5 were majority Catholic and those over the age of 27.5 were majority Protestant. All things being equal and assuming the tipping point has increased 10 years to 37.5 in 2011, it could be suggested that the two main religous groups in the North are now equal in number.
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Above is a extract from Enda’s Blog Post.
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Thanks Hobo….
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As I recall 10% of the Republics population (2011) was born outside Ireland. My impression is that its around the same here. Most would be in their 20s, early 30s and perhaps not in family relationships. These people while nominally “Catholic” (Poland & Portugal) are not necessarily nationalist and have as a general rule not put down roots. Im intrigued by this demographic and have been shying away from blogging about it.
As I recal SDLP fielded one candidate from Poland at last years Assembly Election and five migrants (Polish, Lithuanian and Portuguese) in the local elections. The results were disappointing as those communities did not vote…in fairness there were problems with Voter Documentation…but if you look at results in Craigavon Council (Portadown DEA) and others, the results were disappointing.
It might be a touch of racism involved but more likely it seems those communities did not vote……my gut feeling and some anecdotal evidence was that these folks wanted to keep a low profile…possibly as a consequece of the Troubles. It will be interesting to see how this develops as migrants take on family responsibilities, mortgages etc
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Interesting comment Mr Fitz.
Of course the SDLP will be well aware of another high profile member of a long standing immigrant community who has done quite well, Anna Lo.
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There is no way the immigrant community is as large % as in the south though they do make up a high % of births. From my own experience most of them are married or in relationships. They also seem to have their children a lot younger than locals but never more than 2 or 3.
Everthing else fitz I agree with. Would you want to rock the boat if you lived in a loyalist estate?
Also you’d imagine their children would pick up any cultural leanings depending on the school they go to?
From my experience from working in education most immigrants go to the nearest schools in Belfast but in the country towns and villages the vast majority go to Catholic schools. In Ballymena, Portadown, Armagh, Dungannon, Coleraine, Newry and Magherafelt the % of immigrant children in schools is very high.
I bet the Catholic Church wished they kept St Anthonys PS in east Belfast opened. Inner east Belfast is full of immigrants.
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I expect the census figures to be 50/46 in the Protestant (background) favour when the figured are released. Though I could be totally wrong.
However if the immigrant population increases the size of the Catholic population significantly in some loyalist areas watch loyalist paranoia go into overdrive.
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Thanks for your comment Oakleaf,
I think both the Catholic and Unionist totals will below 50% as people increasingly reject the tags but community background clues will help. Of course, it is voting strengths and intentions that really matter
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Inner East Belfast, this is certainly true. As I recall the St Anthonys Church as Willowfield was on the point of closure but is maintained by Polish attendance. There was once (and possibly still is) a Catholic community in the Willowfield streets. I also understand the Church/school at Ballyhackamore has high Polish attendance.
The 10% in the Republic……born outside Ireland of course includes Americans and English for example so not “visibly” migrant.
There is an element of targetting perhaps. But also an element of integration. And a desire o represent people who are potentially vulnerable.
The SDLP candidate got 250 votes in East Belfast assembly Election. This was down from 820 (2007).
The candidate was Polish….Magdalena Wolska.
On the same day in Pottinger DEA (its partly in East/South Belfast) SDLP got 456 votes. Oddly Magdalena got 207 votes in Victoria DEA which is all in East Belfast.
Presumably the vast majority of the 207 who voted for her at council level, voted for her at Assembly level.
But that leaves only 43 (lets say just 120 tops) voting for her in Pottinger and Castlereagh.
The conclusion might be that there was some tactical voting for SF, Green or AP at Assembly level but it might be that Polish and other migrant folks failed to support a candidate who might be “sympathetic”. A third scenario and sadly its certainly true in Portadown) that a migrant failed to attract votes outside her/his community…..and in the Portadown case inside it.
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Bangordub from what I can remember in 2001 the actual % of people who stated Catholic was 40% and 46% stated Protestant. This was rounded up to 53 ‘Protestant’ and 44% ‘Catholic’.
I think this time it could be both on 42% or so before the NISRA start to do some dodgy maths to get the ‘Protestant’ figure up to 50% and ‘Catholic’ up to 46% or so.
Again I could be totally wrong but just too put my figures out there before the official figures come out.
I see on a certain loyalist website they are complaining about the number of immigrants between the Ravenhill and Woodstock roads.
I also have a friend who does some work for the NIHE and he was telling me the small streets on the bottom of the Ravenhill (Park Parade, Bendigo St etc) beside where there building new social housing is full of immigrants. Whether they filled in the census is another thing altogether.
Another thing the census is likely to show is the continued destruction of residential (inner) south Belfast. Areas like the lower Ormeau, Stranmillis, Ballynafeigh, Lisburn Road area etc are now student land as students no longer want to live in the Holylands are the housing is damp and disgusting.
Saying that the new social housing on the former cricket pitch will have increased nat pop in the Botanic ward considerably.
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Oakleaf, that is really good quality info,
Here is a map of Belfast broken down at ward level from the 2001 Census for comparison:
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re. “some dodgy maths ”
It does seem that ‘Protestant’ background personages are more likley to declare ‘no religion’ based on what happens in the different constituencies – presumably they distribute the numbers based on the Prod/Cath ratio already in the constituency? This may give a false view where there is a high number of immigrants – but the methodology should presumably be in the public domain – somewhere.
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A question I’d like answered is about Donegall Pass. Is it full of Chinese immigrants or is that just loyalist paranoia? I’ve heard ones at work referring to it as China town and I know its full of Chinese take aways.
Also across town the bottom of the Donegall road near the motorway is in a shocking state. Have they started to rebuild some of these houses yet?
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Bangordub thats an interesting map. Belfast is surrounded in a sea of orange.
Ligoniel ward should be near the 50/50 mark with those new developments. Also be interested on the area north of the cavehill road up to start of Ballysillian as those areas are also a lot more mixed than 10 years ago. In south/east Belfast the main talking point will be the immigrant pop.
I hear of people talking about the dales area off the crumlin road now. Does that include Abbeydale as that is right beside Ligoneil and across the road from Hesketh?
Will be interested to see if greater Belfast is also a sea of orange. Derraghy and Mallusk wards will have massive populations with Mallusk ward on the verge of turning a light shade of green.
Also some wards in north Lisburn will be a ligher shade of orange.
In Derry city the wards which make up the waterside will have a nationalist majority for the first time. Gregory will do some crying over that.
South Derry/East Tryone will see several wards changing from light orange to light green. Rest of Tyrone and Fermanagh as you were. Dungannon is a case on its own along with parts of Portadown for the sheer amount of immigrants.
South Armagh (and south Derry catholics to a lesser extent) seems to still believe in bareback as the number of births have been very high for modern times along with some neighbouring ward in south Down (Mayobridge etc..).
South Antrim will be interesting with several massive estates built on the outskirts of Antrim and the never ending developments in Crumlin. Randalstown more nat and divided than ever.
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Probably wrong of me…..and indeed anyone…to think of migrants as a single group. If we look at the “Portuguese” in Portadown and Dungannon, they are actually second generation “Portuguese” with origins in Cape Verde and Timor-Leste. Many actually born there. In Portugal itself, they would be marginalised. More so here. In Portadown and Dungannon they have the menial jobs at Moy Park plants and there is a certain tension in the “they stole my job” category as well as “they have everything done for them” (the same kind of prejudice that would have been experienced by Irish in England or Mexicans in California). Some of it is basic prejudice that needs to be confronted……as well as real issues which cant be overlooked.
One issue might be the wasges paid to them which are very low.
SDLP certainly identified them and Polish as groups to be targetted, not because of “religion” but because their are vulnerable and there are civil rights issues. In fairness some from those groups have been prepared to get involved…but not enough….and the relationship has not been reciprocal…and arguably counter-productive. I think people have expected to be marginalised and are too much at ease below the radar.
It is also known that the DUP would love to announce some Polish involvement which they would claim as outreach to the Catholic community.
In fairness to the Alliance Party, they also fielded a Westminster candidate in 2010 who was from the Indian community (Fermanagh South Tyrone) and a candidate from the Viettnamese community (Dungannon Council 2011).
Certainly my own observation at South Belfast count (2011) was some people of an ethnic background in the Alliance corner but I saw nobody who was obviously from the Chinese community (of course that does not reflect “voting” but there is some anecdotal evidence to suggest that the support for Anna Lo in South Belfast does not translate to AP support outside South Belfast).
The AP traditionally picks up a lot of English migrant votes and has often been the default Party for people in mixed marriages. Indeed that is a cliché. But the thing is that AP have been given a bye-ball on the basis of their 1970s image and record. And now it will be difficult to disconnect AP from voters after four decades.
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That’s an interesting perspective, I suppose that immigrant communities are very low key in the North. I believe the Chinese community is the longest established and I would think, without evidence, that they voted in numbers for Anna Lo, not necessarily for Alliance. Certainly they have a substantial presence in South Belfast with a number of cultural and business centres in the area.
I think it can be a mistake to group all immigrant communities under the one umbrella, so to speak. I know for a fact that there is no love lost between the Poles and the Slovak’s for instance.
As usual I would say it takes time and hard work on the ground to establish a trust and develop a relationship with an immigrant community in much the way that the Labour Party did with the Irish during the 1950’s in England.
To be honest I believe the “Tribal” nature of politics here probably turns them away from voting as much as anything.
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m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-18895671
I don’t think this will help the loyalist cause. Though you got to wonder why other anti Catholic stuff like KAT and burning of children coffins, tricolours, gaa and other nationalist emblems are not news worthy.
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Oakleaf,
I think there has been a certain amount of ‘normalisation’ of sectarianism particularly around the 12th where Norn Ironers just think – it has always been so – and just accept it. I have a post over on FJH’s site on the BBC involvement in this normalisation process – if you happen to be passing that way.
http://fitzjameshorselooksattheworld.wordpress.com/2012/07/15/bbc-and-the-twelfth-guest-post-from-sammy-mcnally/
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http://www.colerainetimes.co.uk/news/local/mcquillan-brands-kilrea-orange-hall-operation-as-ridiculous-1-4062724
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Thats quite funny and embarrassing at the same time. There’s no love lost in the Kilrea/Garvagh area between both Catholic and Protestants.
Its hard to believe not that long ago Kilrea was a staunch loyalist village.
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http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/education/51-of-northern-ireland-school-pupils-are-catholic-16065851.html
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