Well, it was originally called Lisnagarvey before it was burnt during the 1653 rebellion by those eh, rebels. (Can’t call them Fenians as the Fenians hadn’t appeared yet). Anyhow lets look at how things are changing in this particular corner of the blue sky’d unionist paradise. The 2011 election results are as follows with the 2011 Census results below:
DUP: 16,767 (41.0%), 14 councillors
SF: 8,328 (20.3%), 5 councillors
UUP: 6,803 (16.6%), 5 councillors
Alliance: 4,243 (10.4%), 3 councillors
SDLP: 3,600 (8.8%), 3 councillors
Catholic: 36.5% (+ 3%), Protestant 56% (-7%), Other 1% (+0.7%), None 7% (+3.5%)
Courtesy of ARK website
The Catholic population here is very concentrated in certain areas and interestingly these are the only wards to show a decrease in the catholic percentage, namely Twinbrook, Colin Glen, Kilwee and Poleglass. All overwhelmingly catholic areas.
Every other ward has seen a net increase in the catholic and a decrease in the protestant percentages. The highlights are Ballymacoss, Harmony Hill, Moira, Derryaghy………..actually, I give up, the rest are all highlights. Whether this will translate into extra votes and seats remains to be seen. I can’t actually see where this might happen just yet but the trend is confirmed. Things are moving solidly in only one direction. The grey skies so feared by certain politicians in years past are gathering.
Ward figures are below:
| Catholic Change | Protestant Change | |
| 95SS01 Ballinderry | 5.7% | -10.1% |
| 95SS02 Ballymacash | 6.7% | -7.7% |
| 95SS03 Ballymacbrennan | 4.1% | -7.1% |
| 95SS04 Ballymacoss | 10.0% | -14.7% |
| 95SS05 Blaris | 6.6% | -12.2% |
| 95SS06 Collin Glen | -3.4% | 2.5% |
| 95SS07 Derryaghy | 10.8% | -13.3% |
| 95SS08 Dromara | 3.4% | -7.8% |
| 95SS09 Drumbo | 8.7% | -13.1% |
| 95SS10 Dunmurry | 2.2% | -4.6% |
| 95SS11 Glenavy | 5.0% | -7.5% |
| 95SS12 Harmony Hill | 7.0% | -10.0% |
| 95SS13 Hilden | 2.9% | -7.2% |
| 95SS14 Hillhall | 6.7% | -12.1% |
| 95SS15 Hillsborough | 5.7% | -9.0% |
| 95SS16 Kilwee | -5.0% | 3.3% |
| 95SS17 Knockmore | 5.0% | -9.6% |
| 95SS18 Lagan Valley | 7.5% | -13.9% |
| 95SS19 Lambeg | 4.4% | -10.7% |
| 95SS20 Lisnagarvey | 2.1% | -6.5% |
| 95SS21 Maghaberry | -2.1% | -2.5% |
| 95SS22 Magheralave | 4.5% | -8.4% |
| 95SS23 Maze | 2.5% | -7.1% |
| 95SS24 Moira | 5.9% | -10.6% |
| 95SS25 Old Warren | 2.1% | -10.3% |
| 95SS26 Poleglass | -3.9% | 2.8% |
| 95SS27 Seymour Hill | 5.3% | -12.2% |
| 95SS28 Tonagh | 5.1% | -11.1% |
| 95SS29 Twinbrook | -7.0% | 5.3% |
| 95SS30 Wallace Park | 3.8% | -6.6% |
| 3.7% | -7.7% |
Good work, dub.
The ‘greening’ of Lisburn is underway – right across the ‘city’ and in towns and villages beyond. It really is quite dramatic. A lot of people moving out from W. Belfast combined with a hint of the Eastern European factor I suspect. There has also been a substantial reduction in the size of the British army garrison in the town, though the religious balance of the ward most affected, Wallace Park, has not altered as much as most (irreligious Brits, eh).
We all know about Lagmore / Mt Eagles, which accounts for the exodus form densely populated Twinbrook and Poleglass but there has also been a lot of development on the north-western edge of Lisburn in Ballymacoss ward and it is well mixed. Glenavy, Ballinderry and Moira have seen big growth too.
Having said that Lisburn is still a predominantly unionist town, though the main loyalist redoubt is now Seymour Hill.
When you compare the election and census results of 2011 it suggests either a low nationalist turnout or that most of the Allaince votes come from catholics in this council
The most nationalist wards were moved to W. Belfast. Glenavy was moved to S. Antrim. L. Valley also includes the area around Dromore.
A few other factors will acoount for the lower nationalist vote than the Catholic population would suggest. Age – the census counts all people including those too young to vote – of which there will be disproportionately more Catholics. Registration – The Catholic increase is mostly down to people moving into Lisburn and many will be slow to register. Natioanlity – Some of the new Catholics in Lisburn are E Europeans and won’t ever register or vote and if they do it could go anywhere.
But as you say Alliance probably are taking a fair few votes which might be due to people in areas which are 5 – 15 % Catholic not wanting to rock the boat and make themselves targets. Also Alliance are doing quite well at the moment so they would reasonably expect to get some votes from Lisburn Catholics.
Hopefully this increase in Catholic residents will be enough to get back the Nationalist Assembly seat lost last time round due to Boundary Changes. I think Lagan Valley was showing about 19% Catholic, whereas the quota is 14.1 %. With another couple of years of demographic change before the next Assembly Elections there should be enough Nationalist votes to overcome the previously mentioned factors depressing the vote. ( And assuming that some on the SDLP’s anti-Nationalist wing don’t try to get SDLP voters to transfer to Alliance and Basils soft Unionists first)
Can I ask what are the numbers, not percentages? Some of those percentages are startling. But are they kicking of from really low numbers? Also I do not take any great encouragement from the drop in Protestant numbers. I just interpret that as a move away from a christian identity and not in any way a move towards a nationalist or even a “soft” unionist position.
To me the best indicatator of voting intent in general, apart from an actual election, is the number who identify as catholic. Basically it is catholic versus the rest. Very sectarian of me – isn’t it.
Here you go Croteir:
All Catholic Protestant Other None
95SS01 Ballinderry 5128 1113 3628 33 354
95SS02 Ballymacash 4287 953 3008 44 282
95SS03 Ballymacbrennan 3372 326 2844 24 178
95SS04 Ballymacoss 7572 1447 5311 46 768
95SS05 Blaris 3375 550 2509 44 272
95SS06 Collin Glen 5899 5469 330 19 81
95SS07 Derryaghy 9464 6779 2209 64 412
95SS08 Dromara 4698 593 3766 39 300
95SS09 Drumbo 3364 656 2401 36 271
95SS10 Dunmurry 4379 3526 656 36 161
95SS11 Glenavy 5697 3416 2016 30 235
95SS12 Harmony Hill 3054 871 1943 30 210
95SS13 Hilden 2904 721 1870 39 274
95SS14 Hillhall 2905 339 2266 33 267
95SS15 Hillsborough 3758 403 3134 35 186
95SS16 Kilwee 3164 2931 163 11 59
95SS17 Knockmore 4298 1006 2855 29 408
95SS18 Lagan Valley 3053 624 2096 44 289
95SS19 Lambeg 2737 270 2158 43 266
95SS20 Lisnagarvey 2605 399 1977 24 205
95SS21 Maghaberry 4716 521 3818 34 343
95SS22 Magheralave 3290 907 1939 39 405
95SS23 Maze 3816 333 3128 43 312
95SS24 Moira 5139 1002 3683 54 400
95SS25 Old Warren 2589 701 1556 27 305
95SS26 Poleglass 3781 3555 170 2 54
95SS27 Seymour Hill 2502 289 1951 52 210
95SS28 Tonagh 2594 1048 1318 17 211
95SS29 Twinbrook 2647 2376 207 3 61
95SS30 Wallace Park 3378 691 2287 35 365
120165 43815 67197 1009 8144
This is a bit of a continuation from the numbers or discussion concerning Craigavon, but Magheralin which is on the border of Craigavon and Lisburn councils, I would say is more orientated towards Moira or Glenavy than Lurgan in many ways,
*WARNING, ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE* By this I mean, that I’ve kind of noticed that Catholics who move there are not normally from other parts of North Armagh with large and well established Catholic populations, but from places like Dromore or Banbridge. Granted, we can contrast this with the places mentioned above such as Lagmore and Mount Eagles (I’ve family who live in the latter) which is a very different ‘gene pool’ Catholic than those in the East of the Council, it just makes for an interesting area.
As for places like Derriaghy and Dunmurry, they’re on the Portadown-Bangor line and enjoy fast, easy links into town, it’s only natural that they become ever more mixed, in fact I have a friend from Co. Doire who lives in the former.
Lisburn, for me, is interesting (I know, something you could never accuse it of being, right?) because it is kind of somewhere where some demographic and cultural (in the tradition sense) tectonic plates meet. It’s not really a ‘centre’ in any meaningful sense and is more where a few traditions meet. For instance, you have traditional farming Protestants and Catholics in Dromore, working class Catholics who are REALLY from Bellfast in Mount Eagles, South Down Catholics in Moira and Glenavy and Protestants in the ‘city’ centre who have always been in the shadow of the big smoke up the road. I just find it to resemble Iraq in many ways!
Jamie Bryson on the run from the PSNI.
Jamie Bwyson has been lifted by the PSNI in Bangor. FFS I thought this comedy caper would have lasted a bit longer but Jamie just had to prove again that he really cant do anything right
They seek him here,
They seek him there,
They seek wee Jamie everywhere,
Is he in Bangor?
Or is he in Bel’
Or is he with Nigel in Moygashel
Wasn’t so long ago Jim Alister was making statements warning against the provision of housing at the Maze prison site – his fear being that westies would move in, as has happened elsewhere in west Lisburn, notably Tonagh, Knockmore and Ballymacoss.
The row over unionists splitting the Derraghy ward several years back is turning out to be completely pointless as the southern half of the Derraghy ward is ‘greening’ rapidly.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=475387969183250&set=a.439650479423666.134583.439581669430547&type=1&relevant_count=1
Speaking of people going missing Nigel Lutton the Unionist Unity candidate for Mid-Ulster has turned down a BBC offer for a televised debate. According to Mark Devenport on Twitter.
Out of his depth obviously?
Mr Lutton was due to take part in a webchat with the Belfast Newsletter at Noon today. It has been delayed it is now happening at 12.30pm.
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/live
BD,
re. “The grey skies so feared by certain politicians in years past are gathering.”
Welcome as the potential increase in the Nat vote is – the EVIDENCE does not point towards the inevitably of a UI but rather points in the opposite direction – i.e. % of respondents in census who referrred to themselves as Irish(no not Norhern Irish) and opinion polls that suggest that support for a UI is not even near the level of support for ‘Nationalist’ parties.
You risk undermining your sound statisitical work by unproven propagandist overstatments like that above – sensible secular Unionists have probably never slept as soundly in their beds as they do at the moment and that for many (including me) ‘disappointing’ scenario is not going to change by shifting numbers about on interactive maps or watching with emrassment SF calling for a border poll and the inevitable (Northern) nationalist humiliation that would follow.
The GFA seems to have produced an outcome which a % of Nats are content with and if and when normal politics beds in – this (unfortunately) seems unlikely to change and if anything probably grow.
There is no justification (or support) for a return to violence to achieve a UI and seemingly not enough motivation/rationale for ‘Nationalists’ to vote for a UI.
Sin é.
When can we expect these normal politics to bed in, Sammy?
http://judecollinsjournalist.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/nigel-lutton-his-father-and-his-uncle.html
Do you ever post on topic, hobo?
No
Its all very well trying, and failing, to get a laugh out of it but it does seem loyalism is changing and thanks to the usual suspects its not changing to any shade of green. When you think about it the DUP have played a blinder nary a word from them but Naomi is almost gone, worth a flag?
Early days P. The election isn’t until 2015.
I wonder who the DUP will put up. Gavin Robinson who is currently mayor seems quite personable. I wonder if he could win against Naomi. There is, of course, an incumbency effect and no doubt nationalists will vote heavily and tactically for Naomi.
Interesting article.
The main reason that the nationalist % of the vote has not been advanced at local government level in Lisburn is relatively easy to identify: the woeful efforts made by both nationalist parties to move beyond the core nationalist communities of Colin/Lagmore & Glenavy.
I speak as one centrally involved in developing Sinn Fein in the constituency of Lagan Valley from the early part of the Noughties through to Paul Butler’s 2007 Assembly election triumph.
During that time, SF made a concerted effort to become involved in Lisburn-centric issues at council and grassroots level.
Sinn Fein peaked with Butler’s vote in 2007, second only to Donaldson in the overwhelmingly unionist constituency, precisely because Butler was able to establish his credentials across the constituency in the majority unionist districts where many nationalists resided, as well as maximise turnout in the core electoral wards of Derryaghy, Dunmurry and Glenavy.
However, the party has failed to build a profile in the constituency since Butler lost his seat due to constituency boundary changes, and even during his tenure, the party never managed to get local credible candidates to field for them in Lisburn (a similar problem inhibiting progress in Castlereagh, Antrim, Ards, Down & many other non-republican core areas of the north. Worryingly, they remain utterly ignorant as to the nature or extent of this problem.)
The problem for the SDLP is even more pronounced. The SDLP post-Lewsley has no credible candidate for the constituency and makes little noises in either Killultagh or Dunmurry Cross, whilst being as invisible as Sinn Fein in Lisburn itself.
Consequently, unless and until either nationalist party follows the lead of its voters and establishes camp in the constituency in a credible, sustainable manner, then there will continue to be a greater degree of electoral apathy and non-voting nationalist numbers in this area as well as the many other similar areas of the north where neither party has yet to credibly organise.
Chris,
Thanks for that. You have hit on one of the things that annoy me very much. As a North Down resident I have nobody credible to vote for. I’ve blogged on the subject previously here, http://bangordub.wordpress.com/2013/02/01/a-real-shock-the-greening-of-north-down/comment-page-1/
And also here.
http://bangordub.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/the-sdlp-and-north-down/
100% agree with your points regarding credible serious candidates and a visible presence
Interesting post Chris. The key is so often in a good candidate and that’s true for all the parties. SF have co-opted quite a number of new candidates and some seem pretty good.
I’m with sammymcnally. All this statistical analysis is interesting but you are ignoring the elephant in the room.- Religious background does not equate to preferred constitional status. You’d have to be living in an insular republican world not to realise that a very sizeable chunk of the Cathoilc population are happy enough with Northern Ireland remaining in the UK. You only have to have ordinary relationships with people in the NI real world to understand this never mind pour over stats. Making stigmatizing or demonising statements about those who are pro-UK union whatever their religious background or none only serves to further isolate and make fanatical those who are in favour of some sort of United Ireland.
And of course, we are secularizing as a society. Religion will count for less and less. I suspect increasing cross community numbers will be happy enough to be Northern Irish with a link to Gb, and just chill out. The sectarian headcount, the raison d’etre of this blog, is of diminishing importance. Being triumphant about increasing numbers of secularizing ex-Protestants gets you and the country nowhere
alphadale,
Thanks for your comments, while I see your point and why it would be desirable in a normal society, I must defend this blog and also correct some misconceptions as I see them. The point of this blog is that the correlation between religious background and voting patterns is very close. I have demonstrated this in previous posts on numerous occasions. I agree that religion is of less and less importance but you have used some perjorative terms in your comment that I would strongly disagree with. This blog, and the majority of those who comment on it are not in any way sectarian. Again, read back a few posts if you doubt me. Indeed I know for a fact that there are those here who are far from religious fanatics.
You may of course, dismiss the “pouring over stats” here, your right entirely, but please support your points with facts rather than unsupported opinions. Fair enough?
Dub,
Any chance you look at Coleraine next?
Yes, its up next
Well I admit I wasnt actually sure what perjorative means and had to look it up. I didnt mean to be derogatory more robust and i thought Sammy Nallys point above struck accord. The stats are interesting for sure though I think you must have been smoking something when you wrote the headline Bangor is greening lol.Ill never speak in facts all I do is give unsupported opinions i’m more a man of the arts than of science if it feels right I’ll come out with it it. In my view the most interesting thing in NI politics at the current time is the seeming Catholic support for some sort of link to GB, hopefully there will be a time soon when religion doesn’t so accurately reflect voting patter, i think that time is on its way.Thats is really the only point i wish to make
Bangor IS Greening: they elect Steven Agnew
Alphadale,
Believe it or not I actually agree with you in your central point that one day religion is no longer an indicator of voting patterns. I’m republican in the true sense of the word. I know that many republicans, including Irish ones are of many religions and none. I myself am not religious. I have no wish to see anyone forced into a political accomodation they would resist, as happened here in 1921 for instance. As for Sammy, He is one of my most valued contributors here and has published guest posts previously. He is also someone I frequently disagree with
Alphadale,
“In my view the most interesting thing in NI politics at the current time is the seeming Catholic support for some sort of link to GB”.
This is also (arguably) the most unpalatable fact for Irish Nationalists – namely that a sizeable percentage of what we refer to as ‘Nationalsists ‘in Northern Ireland are not in fact Nationalsists at all – in the sense that they would actually vote for a UI.
The recent embarassment for SF and Nat commentators in trying to pass this off as some sort of continuing grand plan is only going to end in embarassment and humilatiation e.g. Maskey on the Nolan show.
BD,
I dont challenge the non sectrarian nature of your political views – largely the same as my own – but I think you have to acknowledge the political and sectarian environment that religious ‘headcountery’ discussions take place in and the implications of that?
Chris,
Having beeen oxteredoot of Slugger some time back I havent crossed swords with you in some time – but was wondering if you acknowledge or if there is any acknowledgement within SF that, in relation to the point above that there is an apparent contentment among a (what seems to be fairly large) percentage of ‘Nationlaists’ to stay within the British state?