Horseman referred to Fermanagh as unionisms alamo in terms of unity, ucunf (remember that?) and the future of the west. There are no surprises here.
The trends are a continuing greening of the constituency. The swing is a 3.1% towards catholics and a further erosion of the unionist vote as seen in recent elections. The dreary steeples are receeding from the grey skies towards the clear blue water of a new republic. Mr E C Ferguson would be ill at ease with these figures but they are, nevertheless, the facts.
A certain blogger, since passed on, would recognise the accuracy of his predictions and, perhaps, permit a wry smile, to pass his lips.
| 95PP01 Ballinamallard | 3.3% | -4.9% | ||||||
| 95PP02 Belcoo and Garrison | -3.7% | 1.9% | ||||||
| 95PP03 Belleek and Boa | 0.4% | -1.7% | ||||||
| 95PP04 Boho Cleenish and Letterbreen | 0.5% | -2.6% | ||||||
| 95PP05 Brookeborough | 0.4% | -1.2% | ||||||
| 95PP06 Castlecoole | 3.3% | -5.4% | ||||||
| 95PP07 Derrygonnelly | 0.3% | -2.1% | ||||||
| 95PP08 Derrylin | 1.0% | -0.9% | ||||||
| 95PP09 Devenish | -7.3% | 5.6% | ||||||
| 95PP10 Donagh | 1.2% | -2.2% | ||||||
| 95PP11 Erne | -1.8% | -0.4% | ||||||
| 95PP12 Florence Court and Kinawley | 0.9% | -1.4% | ||||||
| 95PP13 Irvinestown | 0.1% | -1.5% | ||||||
| 95PP14 Kesh Ederney and Lack | 0.3% | -2.0% | ||||||
| 95PP15 Lisbellaw | 6.1% | -8.1% | ||||||
| 95PP16 Lisnarrick | 4.6% | -5.6% | ||||||
| 95PP17 Lisnaskea | 0.8% | -1.3% | ||||||
| 95PP18 Maguires Bridge | 3.5% | -5.1% | ||||||
| 95PP19 Newtownbutler | 0.0% | -1.3% | ||||||
| 95PP20 Portora | 3.7% | -7.9% | ||||||
| 95PP21 Rosslea | -1.0% | 0.5% | ||||||
| 95PP22 Rossorry | 3.4% | -6.3% | ||||||
| 95PP23 Tempo | -2.1% | 0.6% | ||||||
Hi BD.
Much as I love reading these, they are all micro-analysis of the council areas which we all ready know. What be really useful would be to do like Nicholas whyte does (and presumably will eventually) is put these onto the constituencies areas. There are lots of marginal assembly seats that the sdlp missed out on such as north and south Antrim and Strangford (and possibly lagan valley) Is there a good reason for this? Even if all these new Catholics aren’t all nationalists they still won’t be voting unionist. So alliance surplus transfers in places in the greater Belfast area become crucial. In a few places alliance came in on or below quota so there were no transfers available. That may not be the case next time.
At present there are 43 nationalist seats and 55 unionist. The last boundary change helped unionists a lot by squeezing out a lot of nationalists in some constituencies.
If SF could pick up at the expense of UUP in upper bann, and SDLP pick up in SD, ST, N. ANT. and S. ANT. that would very little left to achieve parity in representation. On top of that, alliance could threaten a DUP seat in North Belfast with friendly nationalist transfers while there is a 3rd non unionist quota in East derry. There is plenty of scope for change, but we need to be pointing out the targets.
Charlie,
Great post.
I actually agree with everything you say above. I try to be brief in my posts but yep, you are right in terms of developing things. I have limited time to work on this due to work etc but I do my best and to be honest it is the people who comment and contribute here that make the site what it is. What I try to do is start a conversation and I am not precious with my sources.
If, as I suspect the UUP are gone by the next election, expect nationalists to pick up a lot of seats. I would not be surprised to see a nationalist FM next time around.
I don’t claim to be a perfect predictor or a genius of sorts. I just enjoy the sport so to speak.
Charlie a drop from 6 to 5 assembly seats would result in the unionist majority being lost overnight. How likely is it to happen? er not likely. I remember the DUP supporting a motion but then went very quiet. I presume someone pointed out the stats
So which column is which?
Irish Aussie, What do you mean? 1st column is Catholic change, 2nd is Protestant change
Apoligies, I left out the titles
Thank you, keep up the good work
Apparently Devenish ward (Enniskillen) has lost > 200 people, almost all of them Catholic.
http://www.ninis.nisra.gov.uk/mapxtreme/pf_report.asp?sLevel=WARD&sID=95PP09&sName=Devenish
Would anyone with local knowledge care to explain this?
FF,
From down here in Queensland I would say they are all in Australia, and that is not tongue firmly in cheek btw. I’ve met about 20 people from Fermanagh, specifically Enniskillen, of voting age who have emigrated here over the past 2 years.
Enniskillen in general has seen a rise in population, though the two most nationalist wards, Erne and Devenish witnessed a population decline. The former was neglible, the latter around 12%.
The demographic game is never over, BD (unless you have advance knowledge of some impending catastrophe). The figures above reflect strong Catholic growth in and around Enniskillen, including the ‘unionist’ wards that stretch in an arc round the north and west of the town – Lisnarrick, Ballinamard, Lisbellaw and Maguiresbridge. The predominanatly nationalist rural areas along the border have not done so stongly. They have likely lost people to Enniskillen, Dublin and Australia.
Correction – the curse of Ballinamallard strikes again