Craigavon (Portadown, Lurgan and the shopping centre bit with the roundabouts in the middle) was created in 1965 as part of a grand plan to establish and to demonstate that the North ” was in some ways a symbol of Northern Ireland as both modern and a part of British mainstream” according to wikipedia. Of course the real reason it was built was to establish a more or less permanent unionist majority in North Armagh.
We now know that, like Belfast, unionism is in a minority here (48.4% from 52.9% in 2001) and Nationalism is getting closer. (46% fron 44.7%).
The most dramatic swings have taken place in Annagh, Church, Edenderry, Kernan Tavanagh and Parklake. The overall trend is a cumulative 8.1% in favour of catholics. As this LGD has fewer wards the full list is below.
| Catholic Change | Protestant Change | |
| 95LL01 Aghagallon | -1.5% | -0.6% |
| 95LL02 Annagh | 11.4% | -17.1% |
| 95LL03 Ballybay | 5.1% | -11.4% |
| 95LL04 Ballyoran | -4.9% | 3.2% |
| 95LL05 Bleary | -0.3% | -2.4% |
| 95LL06 Brownstown | 6.3% | -9.0% |
| 95LL07 Church | 11.1% | -17.9% |
| 95LL08 Corcrain | -6.5% | 0.4% |
| 95LL09 Court | 2.8% | -5.2% |
| 95LL10 Derrytrasna | -1.0% | -0.2% |
| 95LL11 Donaghcloney | 2.2% | -6.9% |
| 95LL12 Drumgask | -2.8% | 0.9% |
| 95LL13 Drumgor | 1.9% | -7.1% |
| 95LL14 Drumnamoe | -4.4% | 3.2% |
| 95LL15 Edenderry | 5.9% | -10.2% |
| 95LL16 Kernan | 5.2% | -10.4% |
| 95LL17 Killycomain | 5.8% | -9.6% |
| 95LL18 Knocknashane | 3.6% | -8.3% |
| 95LL19 Magheralin | 4.0% | -6.7% |
| 95LL20 Mourneview | 0.7% | -4.7% |
| 95LL21 Parklake | 16.5% | -21.1% |
| 95LL22 Taghnevan | -4.9% | 1.9% |
| 95LL23 Tavanagh | 8.7% | -14.3% |
| 95LL24 The Birches | -6.3% | 3.3% |
| 95LL25 Waringstown | 2.5% | -6.9% |
| 95LL26 Woodville | -3.9% | 2.6% |
Indeed the area of Portadown, Craigavon, Lurgan has already turned green. Big increases in Moira, Ballinderry, and Magherlin also. 5-7 percent. any word when they release Community Background by age BD?
The ward of Parklake in Lurgan is interesting. Why such a big swing here? New builds?
Yeah, there is a fair bit of new housing there. Population up from 2500 to almost 4000.
Moira and Ballinderry in Lisburn borough. Big changes there.
FF,
Big Estate on the Antrim Road in the town opposite kilwillkie that has been built in the last 10 years. I was in the old ‘Norman bar’ in Moira some time ago and a load of young Gaels came in with their Down tops on. You could see the old boys shaking their heads. I did have a Mona lisa going on but to be fair no harsh words were exchanged.
Boondock,
I would say Duffy would have have a fair amount of support in that area who would not vote for SF.
Can we say that Upper Bann is well and truly in play or is that just Nationalist wishful thinking?
Upper Bann should be in play although unionists would almost certainly field a unity candidate if there was any risk and as I have noted before a nationalist unity candidate wont happen whilst McDonnell is leader of the SDLP. The problem with both Upper Bann and East Londonderry is that the nationalist vote unlike most constituencies is well below the community background figure. I dont know if this is because both constituencies have large numbers of young catholics who cant vote or cant be bothred to vote or whethernationalist dont vote because they feel it wont make a difference at the moment or maybe they even tactically vote for the better unionist option. At the last stormont election Sf just missed out on a second seat in Upper Bann but Im pretty sure that would have been at the expense of the SDLP so a third seat is still a few years away but will come before the westminster seat turns green. East Londonderry seems to be turning at a much slower rate and the way things are going east belfast will turn green before east londonderry does lol
There’s still a lot of life left in the SDLP in East Derry too, which complicates things. If I still lived there I’d be almost tempted to vote for the SDLP’s John Dallat, a very brave and good man.
There is no prospect of SF winning the Westminster seat as the Banbridge part of the UB constituency is about two-to-one unionist.
The Birches explained
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotch_Street
Fear Feirsteach
Some stats taken from Nwhytes arc site
2011 Assembly election Upper Bann
SF 11,528 (27.2%, +1.9%)
DUP 11,499 (27.1%, -4.3%)
UUP 10,426 (24.6%, +3.4%)
SDLP 4,846 (11.4%, -1.3%)
Alliance 2,765 (6.5%, +4.7%)
TUV 1,026 (2.4%)
UKIP 272 (0.6%)
This shows with a splintered unionist vote its not that far fetched. Granted FPTP will result in tactical voting and again there will be fewer unionist candidates but with further demographic shift it will happen just a case of when
Boondock,
Based on Nick’s figures, which are as always accurate, In Upper Bann the combined Nationalist vote has increased by 3% over 6 years. The combined Unionist vote has decreased by 2%. That’s a narrowing of 5% obviously. The gap in 2011 was approx 14%. Hence it should take about 13-14 years to achieve parity. It. won’t take that long I assure you as the pace of change is actually accellerating as we can see above.
Three nationalist seats at an Assembly election is a more realisable objective.
Update: OK North Down is up next followed by Fermanagh. Both pretty predictable to be honest although I will be cross referencing with Horsemans predictions. Suffice to say the west is won as someone commented earlier. After that I think Newtownabbey may be interesting?
Although there may no longer be a Craigavon Council, I have split this into DEAs because I am shall we say not unfamiliar with the geography.
Loughside:
Aghagallon, Court, Derrytrasna, Woodville, Drumnamoe.
Minimal population change here…in part because its overwhelmingly Catholic already. SF got 60%,,,,3 seats….SDLP 30% …2 seats….not going to change.
Lurgan:
Donacloney, Waringstown, Knocknashane, Church, Magheralin, Mourneview, Park,
The new builds already noted but nationalists under represented here with only one SF seat. but I understand SDLP are working on getting out the rural vote.
Craigavon|
Blery, Drumgask, Drumgor,Edenderry, Kernan, Killycomaine,Taghnevan
SF 2 seats, Alliance 1, DUP UUP 2 each.
The SDLP vote just didn’t come out. And that had implications in Upper Bann.
Poor organisation by SDLP but might be worth pointing out SDLP will be opening up an advice centre next month to supplement Lurgan office.
Simply put, it is hard to motivate people who are so disadvantaged. But the SDLP is getting a lot of constituency work there. Whether this impacts on voting….?
Portadown
Annagh, Ballybay, Ballyoran, Brownstown, Tavanagh, Corcrain, Birches
Disasterous from SDLP in 2011 three candidates and no success.
DUP 4 SF 2 UUP1
I was not a member of SDLP then but it would be unfair to peopl to go on record with the analysis I would make as a non member.
Is it right to make forecasts for Upper Bann based on results from one council area which may no longer exist? I think so.
The shambolic nature of the SDLP campaign means they can only use one DEA as a base to progress. True they could argue bad luck
But a ignificant factor is non voters in nationalist community…dissidents but mostly the disinterested.
And frankly SF played a dirty game in Upper Bann. They had a campaign which had banners in Lurgan which stated there was three nationalist seats and told ppl that Dolores Kelly was so safe, that they should vote for McGibbon.
One SF canvasser told me that Dolores was “toast”.
There seems no way that a third nationalist seat is likely.
Interesting stuff folks and this is where I grew up so I’ve a particular interest.
A few observations:
i) FJH had touched on some things regarding the SDLP and its organisation in the council area, it was particularly poor and has been something of a legacy issue for them. I tried questioning a rep when she came knocking on my door about Patten reforms (many moons ago) and she simply walked away. This is in the ‘Central’ or ‘Craigavon’ part, Drumgask ward (if that includes Tullygally) which is now massively republican and even dissident republican (main guy lives at the end of our row ffs). The problem is one all too familiar to many non pols, some reps call round only when they need a vote and are not seen on the ground. I think there is plenty of scope for SDLP to get votes in Craigavon as there are a lot of perceived middle class nats in the area who just aren’t voting and they all have kids.
ii) The map of wards is very interesting, for instance, I would never have included Taghnevan in Craigavon and I am sure the residents there would be amazed to hear that this is where they are deemed to live, they never ceased to slag us off for being ‘Craigavon Dump-rats’, now I get to lump them in with us! For most locals, Craigavon ends and Lurgan begins at the Tullygally East Road where it runs from the roundabout at the end of the Portadown Road to the roundabout at the top of the Tandragee Road. The ward map seemingly has Lurgan beginning at where Edward Street meets the Old Portadown Road and St Paul’s church, that may also help explain why a Nat town is delivering a large unionist return. I know this is mere semantics on my part, only it seemed bizzare. I also know that ‘Lurgan’ is really that country area between Bandbridge, Moira and Hillsborough/Dromore but still, it’s not really much of ‘Lurgan’ if you lop large chunks of the town into other areas.
iii) Magheralin is an interesting spot. Back in the late 90s it was a sleepy rural area a mile or two away from the top of the town on the way to Moira, now there is very little greenery between it and Moira and is coming down with a load of ‘lovely’ large semis which appears to be somewhat mixed, though an observation from my friend who has lived there his entire life it does have an increasing nat pop, but these guys are seeing it as the edge of a Belfast commuter belt thing with shops and facilities about or nearby.
The area was filled full of ye olde Protestant farmers and is now fast becoming suburbia. This is also the case in Bleary if my memory serves me right.
iv) For the Assembly elections, who knows how this will pan out? I do think the constituency (Upper Bann) has the same kind of dynamic on offer that many others have where they are close to tipping from unionist to nat; trying to get the vote out for the latter. There is something of a feeling that we simply don’t have the votes so what’s the point in coming out? For instance I do vote at council or assembly elections but Simpson has a solid majority and I think it could be a while (10 years?) before it could be seriously in doubt, so I just skipped the last WM election. After all, voting is a bit like a game; we (the public in general) like our choice to be a winning choice.
Widening it out a bit, I think Banbridge is definitely greening and it should be a bigger target for SDLP than SF. Having went to school in Newry (bus went via Banbridge and a lot of Nats send their kids down the road for school), Banbridge Nats always came across to me as from the same gene-pool as South Down Nats in general and those guys are SDLP voters through and through. I suspect that many who have moved to Banbridge are from places such as Rathfriland, Hilltown, Drumantee or Tullylish. I do think that if a situation where to arise where Nats are in the majority and unionism were to field a unity candidate at WM they latter would still win. The constituency is just not like FST, the SDLP would not fold so easily in Upper Bann.
Interesting stuff there from FC and he nails it.
He also gets the geography dead right.
I’m limited in what I can say here…it wouldn’t be fair.
suffice to say that Lurgan DEA is effectively North Lurgan and rural and unionist.
he’s also dead right that Craigavon DEA includes Taghnevan who all regard themselves as Lurgan folk. and the DEA extends into Killycomaine and that’s really Portadown.
Getting the vote out in Craigavon estates and Taghnevan. And vote management was a problem. Independent KieranCorr lost his seat. He had been SDLP and there should have been enough votes there to get a gene pool SDLP candidate elected. SDLP ran two candidates, one Polish who is VERY committed and an outgoing councillor who lost her seat.
It SEEMED that SDLP was running a Polish candidate to scoop that vote and transfer to the outgoing councillor. As it turned out, both lost. But I think SDLP just wanted to get some kudos for running an Eastern European. One candidate (allowing for Corr) would have worked.
The situation in Portadown was that the SDLP with one outgoing councillor ran THREE candidates which was daft. One ran from Maghery, the Birches….one ran in Portadown proper and the third candidate ws Portuguese….there is a large Timorese-Cape Verde population in Moy Park…..I think the problem ws that this was seen as a transparent attempt to get the Portuguese vote….and frankly I’d go along with that (unlike Craigavon DEA) …were the voters racist? Some yes…the Portuguese are seen as a problem, more obviously different from the Poles….but frankly “Portuguese” is not fully correct…they would still feel alienated in Porugal? As it happened, the Portuguese voters didn’t vote SDLP and neither did the locals.
THe SDLP has a massive job on its hands in Portadown (and only slightly less difficult in Craigavon).
Banbridge has been mentioned…cautionary note that some wards are in South Down. But things were actually quite good for SDLP there.
The party has opened an office in Banbridge last year and its getting a lot of traffic.
That’s the key….being on the ground.
So that’s three offices which are/will be busy.
Thanks FJH,
I didn’t realise Kieran had lost his seat btw. I’ve known him since I was 8 when Mammy FC dragged my brother and I to Lismore pitch and then down to Pinebank for under 10s and 12s football with Eire Og and Kieran would have been involved with that. He’s a big fixture around the area and a nice guy.
SF is very good at getting its vote out in Craigavon, you guys are not which is a crying shame as I think the council could be ripe for change if we all get our act together. You guys have votes out there and whilst I think running a Polish and a Portuguese speaking rep is a great idea IF done well I think it is a tight-rope act too and far too risky.
I do know that many are unfortunately racist in the area and definitely see the Portuguese speaking part of the populace as ‘taking jobs’ in Moy Park away from locals, but I think that with some effort the SDLP could definitely get these votes as well as their gene pool votes just waiting to be picked up with effective vote management.
Also, have you noticed the relative greening of areas like Donacloney, Waringstown, Magherlin and the Bleary or is it just me?
It’s interesting to look at the population of each of the wards and compare to the last census. The wards in the centre of Lurgan and Portadown – i.e. the older parts of both town – tend to show a decline while wards on the peripheries of towns and surrounding villages tend to show significant population increases. In Portadown (town as opposed to DEA) Killycomaine, Edenderry, Tavanagh, Brownstown and Annagh all decline in population – only Ballybay of the majority P wards bucks the trend – while the mainly nationalist wards of Corcrain, Ballyoran increase by about 300-400 souls each. Bleary(+400) and The Birches (+700) record rises while the biggest increase of all is in suburban Kernan (+2400). In the nationalist end of Lurgan Court and Woodville decline in population. Drumnamoe (+600), Parklake (+1400), Taghnevan (+1000) and, further afield, Derrytrasna (+1000), Aghagallon (+1100), Drumgask (+1000), Magheralin (+1300). Church and Mourneview – now only 53% P – wards in Lurgan see a decline while Parklake has gone green. Knocknashane sees a increase of 500 while Waringstown and Donaghcloney both see rises of around 1200.
Great stuff lads, Wish we had a few girls on here
According to Gareth Gordon of the BBC Basil McCrea’s UUP hearing has begun.
Oh to be a fly on the wall for that one………………
They could sell tickets to that one Bangordub.
If you get the result first let us know
Basil McCrea hearing over after 3 hours still awaiting outcome maybe next week.
The jungle drums will start shortly I think, thanks Hoboroad
I would quite like to live in ‘Bleary’. Not so much a place as a state of mind.
Very good NN.
It’s very quiet around there and if I’m not mistaken there’s an emu farm there too! No pubs though or none I can remember, you either travelled to Gilford to ‘Wee Minnie’s’ (believe its closed now) to Lurgan for its plethora of establishments (the Beehive being my favorite while I was home for a year) or somewhere like Waringstown for ‘the Planters’, though it could be all change as i never frequented the latter.
Just to make a point about new families in say Maralin, Moira, Helen’s Bay and other place where people move in. I think it takes a while to settle in and put down roots. People on blogs etc are political…most people aren’t and I think it takes a while to get the measure of the place.Maybe even a second generation. Since 1982 we have lived in two different villages…for 11 and 19 years….and worked in Blfast. We are not exactly social but a few months ago my wife and I worked out that by first and last name we know just 19 people here…ie 19 people in 19 years. We don’t buy Irish News, have no idea bout funerals etc. We have no real attachment to this village …it’s just a place to be home. Our children are married…they would obviously know people from school, college, GAA, work, going out at night.
I think it takes…time.
FJH,
I am 6 years in Bangor. Apparently everyone knows me!
Yes…but I am a bit odd.