The ward level information from the 2011 Census will be released this week. My spreadsheets and graphs are primed and ready to go. As I am sure you will be aware this involves a large volume of data which will take time to collate.
I am therefore, in true democratic style, holding a poll to help me prioritize which analysis to publish first. I’d appreciate your participation as always.
Coleraine…border country
lol, have you voted? South Down is in the lead so far….
Yes….but I never get these thing right.
Pick your favourite (Hint- Craigavon) and click the button! lol it’s a bit of fun but I will abide by the result. Latest has Fermanagh in the lead
Not a single vote for North Down yet? C’mon
Marginals of Belfast, Craigavon, Armagh, Lisburn. Also of interest Antrim and Limavady
Belfast ahead now. Bah humbug, them Belfast wans get everything that’s going. Looking forward to the analysis, in whatever order it appears.
Ach sure Belfast is the centre of the universe don’t ya know.
Is there anything I can do to help? Just discovered this site, and its a fantastic successor to the great Ulsters doomed.
Gingray,
local knowledge is always useful in interpreting changing demographics. We have some really good contributors who know the lie of the land so to speak, stuff I certainly would not be aware of.
Welcome on board
As Enda notes above (and his site is excellent- endgameinulster.blogspot.com {corrected}) the ones to watch are the marginal seats where small shifts can affect election results. North Belfast for example.
.blogspot.com
All ready following his site as well! Actually I was mainly offering my services to get an idea how you go about your number crunching – just excel, or you using any other package?
And if you guys do need any help gathering the data, let me know! I will be very interested to see how you collate/display the data.
Actually, while I am expecting big changes in Castleview/Fortwilliam, I think the impact in the Ravenhill/Woodstock wards will be very interesting.
Gingray,
I use excel primarily, here are the 2001 figures for the wards you mention.
2001 2001
Catholic Protestant
95GG13 Castleview 31.15% 64.26%
95GG24 Fortwilliam 32.91% 64.09%
95GG37 Ravenhill 25.54% 67.32%
95GG50 Woodstock 6.16% 86.69%
If you dont do North down first then me and my mates are going to bring Bangor to a standstill with road blocks – thatll learn ye, big Wullie and wee Jamie are already up for it.
Lol Boondock,
you’ll only upset the local pensioners and you really don’t wanna do that
Hi all,
Belfast is establishing a clear lead at this time. It is the most polarised place in the North. To give the new figures some context, in 2001:
There were 51 Wards, still are.
23 were majority nationalist (over 50%)
25 were majority Unionist (over 50%)
3 were in the balance requiring small swings to get either Nationalism or Unionism over the 50% line.
These are Windsor, Stranmillis and Finaghy.
Thats the first thing I’ll be looking at……
Bloody Belfast – not content with us subsidising your shop keepers they also get precedence in this.
Interesting development: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21235169
So Deputy Dodds will indeed be fighting Gerry Kelly in the existing North Belfast constituency, with no reinforcements from elsewhere. We aren’t the only ones who are going to be studying those Belfast wards.
Nordie N,
Personally I am delighted.It makes my life much easier comparing like with like.
As I said earlier, North Belfast is of considerable interest to me tomorrow. I am just hoping the figures released tomorrow are in a similar format to 2001. I also think the proposed changes would not have favoured Nationalism. There is a long long history here of boundary changes based upon an outcome favourable to unionism. I wonder why the original boundaries of 6 counties are no longer acceptable, oh wait, that would mean a 4-2 win for nationalists. Crazy thought.
Orangefield, Ballyhackmore will also change as well. Could see Cairnshill Carryduff East/West, knockbracken all go green. remember there is 80000 more catholics than in 2001. the change will be large in theses areas. Ardoyne and WB are actually losing population so the change in some area will be huge.
Thanks Ormeau,
This is the kind of info that makes things interesting, 2001 figures below.
95GG03 Ballyhackamore 11.61% 80.26%
95GG36 Orangefield 3.28% 90.96%
Will be surprised at major change in those areas to be honest.
An increase due to poles, and some MC Catholics moving in but dont forget the Protestant population decline will also change those wards. Could see a fair few Catholics becoming Protestants to keep the head down in those areas. Four Winds, Glengormley, Carryduff is were the real change is happeneing. Im sure there will be a surprise ot two. Heard from a mate that Stoneyford despite all the intimadation has become majority catholic.
Forget ‘the greening of the west’ – that has been achieved. The greening of the east is the story now – Belfast, Newtownabbey, Antrim, Lisburn, Castlereagh, Craigavon.
Here is ward data. Annoyingly I can’t filter it by council area
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2426-lh-38-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census+2011-yearfilter–
Sometimes figure’s stand out and when you look at Duncairn were the CCB has increased from 5 to 23 percent and you wonder how that many Catholics could move into Tiger’s Bay and Shore road and not get a reaction. When you look closer you see that Duncairn ward now includes all the new houses at the old Dunmore Stadium and all the new housing in Sailortown. Modest increases in the Four winds and very large increases in many East belfast wards that could be increasing the Loyalist sense of losing ground in that area.
Just got this from a dubious e-mail address:
The Token Hun
Comment ” 23 were majority nationalist (over 50%) 25 were majority Unionist (over 50%) 3 were in the balance requiring small swings to get either Nationalism or Unionism over the 50% line.” Really Bangor Dub, the 2001 census informed us of people’s constitutional options as well as their “religious background”? Why so coy? Anyway lads, enjoy your sectarian number crunching, Wolfe-Tone and McCracken would be very proud of you all;)
I’m not going to enable this commenter to post just yet but I am not in favour of censorship. BD