A Unionist disaster waiting to happen.
A word of friendly warning. It is pronounced Tir Eoghan or “Tear Owen” Land of Eoghan. I bridle at the “Coronation st” pronunciation of “Tyre own”. Sorry, had to be said. (I originally titled this post “Tyrone” until corrected, thank God by Fitzjameshorse)
With the upcoming Westminster by-election us number crunchers have a whole new vista opening up. Firstly it is a very safe nationalist seat with a balance of at least 65/ 35 in favour of nationalism. The fun will be the contests within Nationalism and Unionism. The current electoral boundaries were set in 1995 and ever since the seat was won in 1997 by Martin McGuinness from, who I think I may describe as the detested, Willie McCrea, the seat has remained a solidly nationalist one. Further historical detail may be read at Sammy Morse’s 2007 constituency profile.
Of course demographic changes since then have accelerated the growth of nationalism. Lets look at the seven principle towns. Cookstown , Magherafelt , Coalisland, Maghera, Castledawson, Moneymore and Bellaghy. With the possible exception of Castledawson all are majority nationalist. By the end of this month we will have exact figures.
The contest for the nationalist vote is simple. Will the SDLP stand a good candidate and will he or she draw a credible vote thus vindicating the leadership of Allistair McDonnell and growing the nationalist vote? How much will the Sinn Fein candidate, Francie Molloy win by . I would have provided a link for the SDLP mid ulster party but I can’t find one. (Bit like North Down) Enough said. The dissident republican groups may also stand a candidate.
Unionism, as usual is much more interesting and amusing. It boils down to 1 thing. A unity candidate or not. If they opt for a unity candidate he or she will lose. For that reason I don’t think it will happen. So my guess is that we will have the entire multi coloured range of Unionists fighting it out for their 35% of the vote so that they can claim bragging rights for the “Leadership of the peepil” (They can no longer claim the majority of course). We will have the DUP, the UUP, the TUV. great stuff! We will also perhaps have bold Willie Frazer, possibly the best indictment of “judging a people by the quality of their leadership” I have ever seen. We may have the Protestant peoples forum, the pup (Doubt that one) and a few assorted wingnuts and spitfire pilots standing as independents.
Personally I can’t wait.
(Graph Courtesy of Horseman)
Mr Dub…you need to change the headline to Mid Ulster. I intend to be on the ground although will not be actively canvassing in the traditional sense. I take your point that there may be a lot of unionists in the field…but personally I think there won’t be so many…not least because we have a fledgling unionist unity movement gaining traction. I also think there will be an Alliance candidate who will score a multiple of the derisory vote AP usually gets…a sympathy vote but it will be hailed as a victory by the usual sources.
Effectively Molloy is being put out to pasture and on sheer ability he is no Patsy McGlone. …McGlone is a bigger hitter and I’d hope the SDLP & SF would have parity in the Derry end of the constituency…..but it will be harder for SDLP in and around Coalisland.
There will be a lot of letsgetalongerism/over class crap about the low turnout but it will be higher than English bye elections……
Thanks for the correction. Done. I was fixated on the Tyrone thing as most of the constituency is , of course, Tyrone with bits of South Derry. I actually hope the Unionists don’t run a joint candidate as it will give a truer reflection of the balance in the nationalist vote. Will Patsy McGlone stand?
I think McGlone will be the candidate. I am a big admirer.
There are a few subtle things to be seen in the previous figures. Cookstown councillor Tony Quinn was the candidate in 2010 and did ok….but the SDLP performance in 2011 was actually better.
and SFs performance actually worse….but there are a few tell tale signs….McGlone out scored his running mate …Austin Kelly by 4:1….despite the area being split equally….and this indicates McGlone is probably more popular than his party label.
Frankly Molloy is no McGuinness….and a key factor might be how the hospital campaigners (McCloys) vote goes…..I can’t see any circumstance where SDLP win…apathy will be a major factor….as will the imbalance in Tyrone/Derry nationalist votes. But I’d expect SDLP to be a very visible presence….ironically SF will complain about SDLP outsiders flooding into Mid Ulster……and frankly I’d expect a very acrimonious contest.
Surely the south Derry part of Mid Ulster has a massive SF vote hence 9 councillors elected compared to 2 SDLP in Magherafelt Lgd.
Pasty is no doubt popular as he is from the nationalist wing of the SDLP and an all round good guy.
Is Wille Frazer still intending to stand as the Ulster People’s Forum candidate in Mid-Ulster? Young turk Jonny Harvey of the Forum has formerly joined the PUP so I presume the PUP might throw their weight behind Frazer (despite the distaste some might have for him). Presume the TUV would support a Frazer candidacy too.
By the by, has the PUP taken a decidedly right-wing turn over the last two years?
I’d be surprised if Willie got 1000 votes.
I’m not qualified to comment on internal unionist politics but my observation is that since David Irvine passed away the PUP has been directionless. When Dawn Purvis walked, I thought it was game over. Jonny performed quite well on UTV tonight, wait and see is my position
I’d actually like to see a dissident republican candidate to see the latent republican vote which has been staying home of late in this consitituency. While turnout might be low, I’d be interested to see if there is enough gas behind a 5th nationalist candidate. I too would like to see the full plumage of unionism on display but I’m edging towards Fitz’s prediction that a couple will run and a couple more will have a unity candidate. I think the UUP has been coy enough to allow wiggle room in a unionist unity candidate and given the ‘unionist forum’ has just blown its own trumpet, my guess is that he will now be under pressure to not start fighting other unionists. I don’t see a PUP candidate running. I’ll stick my neck out and say one official unionist candidate and one Willie Frazer like candidate. Can’t see UKIP or conservatives running here although UKIP have been enjoying these by electons lately and may get TUV support.
Prediction SF: 42% Uber-unionist total 30% SDLP: 22% dissident Rep 4% Alliance 2%
Timing is also great for comparing with the new ward data etc..
Wille Frazer to walk it with his emotive speeches and good looks even die hard Republicans will get behind Wullie.
On a more serious note a few thoughts about unity obviously any thought of a single unionist candidate here is daft however I read on slugger that Mike Nesbitt would back a unity candidate in East Belfast – I dont know how true that is as I cant find a link – Does anyone else know? I think the next westminster election we may see a number of unionist unity candidates, will nationalist get to together to counter it? I do know McDonnell is completely against such an idea but can he afford to be.
I have mentioned before that unity candidates in an STV elections are completely pointless as they limit choice and just reduce turnout decreasing the overall vote however they obviously can work in the FPTP election
FST – SF scraped home by the tightest of margins despite a good unionist unity candidate and some major campaigning. The SDLP vote was squeezed beyond belief and since then the SDLP have now lost their assembly seat here. In 2015 will there be a enough demographic shift to give SF more breathing space, is it possible for SDLP to poll so badly again, could a unionist candidate still sneak through?
South Belfast – A comfortable win for McDonnell however you could say he was loaned a few thousand SF votes and also a number of Alliance votes would he still get these votes? A single unionist candiidate is still very much a threat and may make his anti-pact ideas look a touch foolish.
East Belfast – I personally dont see this one but as it was mentioned. I think if an election was held tomorrow then the Alliance might still be ok because there are a lot of moderates who are quite frankly embarrassed and pi$$ed off by the protests nonsense. The problem for Naomi is that in 2015 people will probably still remember the flag but will have forgotten about the death threats and burnt out Alliance offices so the sympathy vote will be gone. The DUP should then win this on their own so I dont see the point of unity here either.
North Belfast – Gerry Kelly keeps chipping away at Dodds and next time round it could be tighter than a nuns chuff. If the UUP drop out it would give Dodds a bit of breathing space but there is only 2000 or so UUP votes left. The problem for nationalists here is Gerry Kellly has a bit of an image problem with moderate nationalists and even if given a free run would probably get very few ”extra” votes
I cant see any other constituencies where it is worthwhile. In a perfect storm Upper Bann or East Londondery could be in play for nationalists but any thoughts of a single nationalist candidate would be countered strraight away with a single unionist candidate – so no real point
To conclude there will be some degree of unionist unity however in most cases the DUP will try on their own because lets be honest the UUP have nothing much to offer and if the UUP stand aside in a number of seats then surely the DUP would have to repay that by giving up one of their own seats for a UUP candidate. With McDonnell as leader I dont think nationalists will get together any time soon. SF may again opt out of South Belfast but other than that no other cooperation looks likely.
If there is unionist co-operation in the offing at future elections, it could well be that in areas where there are 2 DUP 1 UUP in the Assembly, you may find the DUP allowing the UUP the run of Westminster to ensure they remain the largest party at Stormont.
Never underestimate Robbo’s tactical sense – his strategies kept on being interrupted by idiots lower down the pecking order (eg his wooing of Catholic unionists being left in tatters by his need to prop up the PUL community walls).
Although I fully support abstensionism, I think it is difficult for SF to generate interest whilst at the same time saying there are not taking their seats – not sure whether the SDLP should perhaps make more of this.
For me it is Stormo and Euro elections that are of serious interest, the westminsters are just a bit of a sideshow unless it is a cliffhanger like North Belfast / Fermanagh or as in this case we have the possible emergence of another Unionist party(you can never have enough).
The percentage turnout by Unionism and Nationalism will also be interesting – my feeling (and I dont think this has been analysed properly) is that the gap between Unionist turnout and Nat turnout is narrowing with Nat turnout becoming more in line with the rest of Ireland – and I suspect Nats wont be arsed to vote (in a pretty meaningless election) in the same numbers as previously.
The narrowing gap between Nats and Unionists turnout(if it is happening)perhaps helps to epxlain why the Nat % vote seems to be stuck between 2001 and 2011
bd,
are we offically on ceasefire regarding the ‘National Identity’ stats – or are you quietly preparing a fresh offensive?
Sammy,
I’m quietly preparing a fresh ambush position
Sammy. I think you are correct in that a major reason why the nationalist vote has staggered at around 42% since 2001 is due to the converging of turnout rates among the two blocks. In 2010 turnouts were fairly level.
http://www.endgameinulster.blogspot.ie/2010/07/electoral-turnout.html?m=1
Other reasons include a longer life exlectancy
Enda, thanks for that I have added a comment(question) on to your wesbiste.
Some great comments above.
Enda, I agree with what you are saying and we should be able to prove it when the detailed info is out at the end of the month. I think there are a large number of nationalists not voting and a comparison between the electoral register and the population would be interesting. Also the older age profile of unionists is undoubtedly a factor as is the tendency for high turnouts where the vote is close, FST being a prime example. Sinn Feins main danger in Mid Ulster is complacency.
Sammy’s points regarding dropping turnouts I also agree with (I know Sammy). It is actually a good thing in my opinion if voting levels are at somewhat approaching “normal” levels. It means we may be becoming a more grown up electorate. I have mentioned before the tendency of voting levels to drop in constituencies where nationalism has established a comfortable lead.
Oakleaf, what are your thoughts on the impact of Dissident candidates locally?
While there is a lot of disquiet among south Derry republicans about the direction of SF there is no desire to return to conflict.
In the last couple of years there has been several 1916 societies started up in the area made up of ex SF members but this is mainly for rememberance purposes and is not political.
There is a Dominic McGlinchey commeration in Bellaghy every Easter Saturday organised by the local 1916 society and this has turned into the largest commeration in the area.
To be frank the hostile atmosphere in south Derry will keep the SF vote high for a long time just to get one over the unionists even if the voter is not that keen on SF policies.
Thanks oakleaf (It is Oakleaf I take it? a letter has changed)
I think Patsy may do well this time, I have heard a rumour that FJH is getting involved……
Yeah its me the time of night and a few beer doesn’t help my spelling. #operationsitin
Cheers!
I’m considering a field trip to the area to test the water, any ideas of a good base?
Political or social reasons?
Both of course! Silliest question you have asked on this blog yet
Dia duit a Bhangoirdub,
I just saw a fantastic picture of the green white and orange flag flying atop Belfast City Hall (or the english embassy !), courtesy of an Sionnach Fionn. I am allowed to dream once in a while and in my dream I see our flag flying proudly from Derry city council. Could this possibly happen ? and were it to happpen what would the possible consequences be ?
How would the people react ? How would the Irish Govt react ?
Now back to reality. Why are so many normal Irish southerners giving tacit support
to the undemocratic loyalist rioters? Are we afraid we might get drawn into some kind of conflict.? So best to abandon our fellow Irish 6 county men AGAIN.
History does repeat itself unfortunately.
Slán
dublin6w,
Easy answer my friend, the question was skewed, the response was small enough to render the poll silly and the responses were spun by the Indo in their usual manner.
Read http://ansionnachfionn.com/2013/01/11/brain-fart-journalism-the-best-of-the-irish-media/ ( I know you have but for others benefit) or http://sluggerotoole.com/2013/01/10/57-of-southerners-think-restriction-of-union-flag-in-belfast-was-wrong/
I am certain the tricolour will indeed fly over the city hall one day but I hope never to see anyone debase it in the way certain others have debased a flag they claim allegience to in recent weeks
Correct me if I’m wrong, but is it not true that the tricolour does not fly from council buildings in the south? The fact that it does in the north is a symptom of the insecurity and triumphalism of unionism. I personally hope to never see the tricolour over Belfast City Hall if it meant the Irish nation had been reduced to that kind of paranoia and anxiety.
Jamie Bryson to be a candidate in Mid-Ulster By-Election?
http://www.midulstermail.co.uk/news/local/leading-flag-protester-a-surprise-candidate-in-mid-ulster-by-election-1-4735885
There has been a bit of activity on Hugh McCloy’s twitter about contesting the election. Strangely this has been between him and the Alliance party’s Michael McDonald, has the campaigner joined the Alliance ? I would like to see Hugh stand, it might not change the result but I think it will make it interesting.
Just for the benefit of others: I take it Damian that he is a Hospital candidate?
Yes the hospital candidate, he was in Antrim on Friday speaking to colleagues and some patients right after we had a unannounced inspection by the fire service. Talk around the halls is that he instigated the inspection, and is going to stand in the election.
Thanks. Probably just worth adding that Sinn Féin has taken note of concerns about the local hospital there in Mid Ulster and have been generally at the forefront of opposing cuts have raised the issue in the local assembly north of the border having secured a debate on the issue:
http://www.midulstersinnfein.ie/media-centre/1-news/114-enhance-services-at-the-mid-molloy
There has been a lot of speculation on boards.ie about a very high profile locally resident veteran civil rights era highly regarded non-GFA non-abstensionist independent republican standing on a human rights platform.
In this context, it is quite interesting to see who has put him/herself forward to be on Spotlight tonight.
It was suggested that this could be a possibility on the Pensive Quill about 3 weeks back. Its on one of the threads paying homage to Dolours Price.
One of the posters on boards.ie has an aunt who lives in that constituency, and claimed that this is a strong rumour, that the individual in question has been adopting a high profile in the last few weeks to test the waters and the TV appearance and Derry speech is part of all of this.
slugger have an article with some nobody claiming that nationalist voters are more ethno-nationalist in voting habits. I’ve just commented that this is on the day a unionist unity candidate is announced. No the irony isn’t lost on me either.
Francie Molloy has been an excellent Ceann Comhairle in the six county Assembly; fair-minded and judicious. I think his input “on the hill” will be missed if he is elected as an MP