As requested by Charlie, below is an updated Graph based upon the recently released data on the monitored workforce. As may be seen, the balance continues to converge. I have included a spreadsheet below the graph with the actual figures.
Of course the trend will continue as the ageing Protestant population retire at an increasing rate and the younger majority Catholic generation enter the workforce.
The spread has closed by an astonishing 12% over a ten year period or 1.2% per year. If that rate is maintained parity will be achieved by 2017. Five years from now. (Correction- Four years and nine days)
| Catholic | Protestant | |
| 2001 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| 2002 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 2003 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 2004 | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 2005 | 42.3% | 57.0% |
| 2006 | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 2007 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 2008 | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 2009 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 2010 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 2011 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
Quite remarkable figures,but, and it is a reasonably sized but, unprecedented (Catholic) immigration in that period needs to be factored in if political conclusions are to be drawn or projections made.
Also how do they deal with the noreligioners which must be a small but increasing % ?
Sammy,
Page 242 of the document linked in the post above details how they use residual information to extract community background. The appendices at the end also detail exact responses, Catholic, Protestant or Neither on an organisation by organisation basis. Hope this is of help, BD
BD,
It seems ridiculous to re-classify people to a religion (which they dont have) to find out if they have been discriminated against – on the basis of religion.
Or am I mssing something?
Also, re. immigation – do you agree that without stripping out immigrants (by religion) that caution must be exercised in using the statisitics for political purposes e.g. measuring the relative decline of the Unionist population?
Sammy,
Yes I would broadly agree with you. It does seem crazy to assign religious affiliation when we know from the census returns that an increasing number are rejecting the old Catholic v Protestant labels. Immigration is an increasingly large demographic and I believe will be a crucial one in voting terms in future elections.After all, Votes are what drive real change as we have seen in Belfast City Hall.
For me the real story of 2012 is the slowly dawning realisation that Unionism is now a minority political philosophy that can no longer rely purely on Protestantism to sustain it into the future.
As for the workforce survey, the very fact that it exists is an indictment of the past governance of this place.
I look forward to it no longer being necessary, Happy Christmas btw
SammyMcNally: the other thing is that excluding the growing band of no-religion people means that using these figures to make political extrapolations seems heroic at best. Catholics in the workforce are growing relative to Protestants, but their rate of growth in the overall work force (including the increasing no religion group), could be rather slower, especially if the non-religious group come more from the protestant than the catholic side.
BD,
Merry xmas and happy new year. Keep up the good work and hopefully in the new year you may attract a few more Prods about the place given that you run a well mannered establishment.
re. “Unionism is now a minority political philosophy”. I don’t believe you have figures at your disposal that prove that but a rather pleasant thought.
And meanwhile in the real world, about half of Catholics reject the term ‘Irish’, a majority of them desire to retain the union with Britain, the feeling of not being wanted by ‘Ireland’ (the south) continues to grow, religion becomes more and more irrelevant and instead of creating convincing arguments and roadmaps to a UI, we nationalists fritter away our cause by counting up the taigs.
Weidm the reality is a large number of Protestants have zero interest in being Irish. The census results quite clearly show very few who would even class themselves as Northern Irish even though you are suggesting this is actually a British term. You only have to read the usual nonsense on various blogs with many unionist politicians unable to recognise the FACT that they were born in Ireland and their ancestors have beeen in Ireland for hundreds of years you even have the odd crazy like Nelson who believes he is of the lost tribe of Israel and definitely not Irish. A very simple example of this anything but Irish attitude is how the Scots-Irish term has been conveniently re-branded as the ulster-scot as obviously the term Irish is so offensive.
Maybe in a generation or so more and more Protestants will become neutral on the border issue and will be influenced by real issues like health education employment etc however I think it is more likely that the count a taig method would deliver a UI sooner as it is the neutral catholics who are more likely to be convinced of the benefits of a UI long before most Protestants.
The most likely scenario for the forseeable future is that Nationalists will be in a majority but there will be no major interest in a United Ireland however we will start to see a much greener Stormont and Northern Ireland in general and scenes like we have seen over the last few weeks in the future are going to look even more undemocratic and ridiculous. Unionist politicians are going to have to start considering a genuine catholic outreach and a genuine shared future and stop spouting lies about their British culture being ”chipped”away (can anybody explain what this even means). If the unionist politicians wake up and smell the coffee then we may have a shared future in Northern Ireland for ALL, otherwise they are sleep walking towards a United Ireland or worse still for unionism a stormont dominated and abused by Republicans.
boondock,
Have a read of this.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/1122/1224326950885.html
The ‘reality’ that such a large number of Protestants have no interest in being Irish is the problem. A large amount of Catholic seem to be uninterested in being Irish as well. This is also the problem, we can put it better by saying ‘a large amount of _people_ are uninterested in being Irish’. The specifying of ‘Catholic’ or ‘Protestant’ is sectarian and it makes a mockery of Wolfe Tone’s legacy, who desired a united Ireland, not just united Catholics, he wanted all Irishmen united and free from the tyranny of the monarch. This is my aim, I don’t care about Catholic or Protestant, I care about Ireland.
Once we lay to bed the insults to Wolfe Tone, we can then focus on doing what needs done, which is to bring the two parts of the island together and convince those in the north of the benefits of once again being part of the same political entity as their countrymen in the other 26 counties. So, I would wager that having a blog post about ‘the top 10 benefits of a United Ireland’ would be better than the above blog post, which is basically pre-emptive triumphalism.
Weidm7,
Below is the text of an email I sent recently, I hope it may answer some of your points. I too, am a republican in the sense of Wolfe Tone. (The e-mail was sent to Sammy McNally of this parish btw)
I really don’t share your pessimism about the census as you know. I am not naieve enough to think all catholics will suddenly turn into rabid republicans as soon as the 50%+1 threshold is passed. My argument has always been that it will force Unionism into a proper intelligent debate about the subject rather than the fleg waving histrionics and rabble rousing of yesteryear. A good thing I believe.
I in no way apologise for my “Number Crunching”. The northern state was founded purely on that principle and, as I’m sure you know better than I, Northern Nationalists had the numbers argument pointed out to them ad nauseaum for years by Unionist politicians. My view is that it is only when Unionists realize that the existence of the North is no longer in their gift by force of numbers or threat of violent insurrection, that they will start to engage in actual argument and rational debate. Another good thing.
Believe it or not, I deplore the idea of sectarian headcounts. I really hope they become irrelevant and I believe they will as soon as Unionism becomes a political minority. Currently Unionists have had 2 reactions to the “Shock” of the census results. Get more garden centre prods and Kaffliks out voting for them. And rattle the traditional sabres to wrest back fallen seats (East Belfast) I think both strategies will be a steep learning curve for them.
I also think at the heart of your article is a recognition that the old Zero Sum argument still pertains hereabouts. I would agree with that.
Sammy, a good article although I couldnt be bothered reading the 290 replies. I carry an Irish and British passport and my daughter has 3 passports I have no problem with people claiming multiple identities as I do and as I have stated on this site before although I am a nationalist and becoming greener with time I would call myself first and foremost Northern Irish. Many times on slugger I have had a good debate with some of the unionist bloggers who argue that republicans are hijacking the term Irish and that their own version of Irish is being ignored. I completely respect their views and would be delighted if their constructive views could ever help build a new Ireland of the future which would include their traditions and culture fully. You will also be aware of many trolls in the blogosphere who would argue black is white and quite clearly have no interest in anything Irish despite having lived all their lives on the island.
I must admit I was surprised at the census stats on identity. I actually expected about 50% of both the nationalist and unionist communities to identify themselves as Northern Irish and despite some people on slugger saying otherwise with figures that dont add up the fact is the vast majority of those self identified as Northern Irish are coming from a catholic/nationalist background, so what happened to all the protestant/unionist Northern Irish? I am actually really surprised at the low percentages of those who used combinations of identity (I cant remember the question on the census but maybe people were not clear they could tick more than one box!)
boondock,
there are many things to say about the census figures but for me, as a Nationalist, until I see evidence to the contrary – I’m viewing them as very disappointing.
weidm7 I completely agree with what you are saying and the best way forward to a United Ireland would be an agreed Ireland with Catholic Protestant and Dissenter all having their fair say. The problem is that just isnt going to happen any time soon. Its only going to happen a) with the passage of time ie everyone with any memories of the troubles die and the new younger generation with less baggage can make more sensible decisions or b) some freak event that seriously affects these islands eg UK gets dragged into ugly war abroad or UK becomes completely broke or Ireland finds huge oil reserves off its coast and becomes super rich.
Just out of interest what sort of things would you be putting on your own list of top benefits of a a United Ireland