This is a LGD breakdown of actual number changes since 2001. Some very interesting figures in here. For instance the largest drops in Protestant population appear to have occurred in what would be considered strongly Protestant areas. Any ideas?
In only three areas did Protestant population growth exceed that of Catholics. Strabane of all places, Ballymoney and Banbridge
| Change Actual | ||||
| Catholic | Protestant | Other | None | |
| Antrim | 3320 | -420 | 261 | 1900 |
| Ards | 687 | -398 | 597 | 4037 |
| Armagh | 2294 | 1326 | 268 | 1169 |
| Ballymena | 2184 | 1004 | 392 | 1926 |
| Ballymoney | 1351 | 1888 | 153 | 926 |
| Banbridge | 2444 | 2633 | 278 | 1584 |
| Belfast | 5654 | -15951 | 2640 | 11250 |
| Carrickfergus | 494 | -1025 | 211 | 1809 |
| Castlereagh | 2784 | -5504 | 493 | 2988 |
| Coleraine | 1218 | -511 | 263 | 1776 |
| Cookstown | 3170 | 593 | 147 | 548 |
| Craigavon | 6658 | 1993 | 480 | 3156 |
| Derry | 1509 | -322 | 502 | 1122 |
| Down | 4041 | -267 | 322 | 1811 |
| Dungannon | 8061 | 852 | 273 | 923 |
| Fermanagh | 2805 | 457 | 210 | 869 |
| Larne | 248 | -172 | 152 | 1150 |
| Limavady | 1676 | -834 | 52 | 242 |
| Lisburn | 7608 | -1062 | 570 | 4344 |
| Magherafelt | 4216 | 329 | 138 | 557 |
| Moyle | 559 | 211 | 63 | 302 |
| Newry | 8784 | 1826 | 367 | 1527 |
| Newtownabbey | 3754 | -3238 | 667 | 4050 |
| North Down | 1052 | -3649 | 513 | 4671 |
| Omagh | 2981 | -151 | 148 | 425 |
| Strabane | 543 | 704 | 65 | 270 |
| TOTALS | 80095 | -19687 | 10226 | 55332 |
You’re quite right about the greatest falls in the Protestant population coming in overwhelmingly Protestant areas. The biggest drop, as far as I can make out, is in Peter Robinson’s own Castlereagh. The Local Government District has gone from 76.9 in 2001 to 67.9 in 2011, a drop of 9%. Similarly, comparison between the 2001 and 2011 LGD figures gives the following declines well above the -5% flagged in media reports: Newtonabbey: from 76.2 to 67.8 (-8.4) North Down, from 80.5 to 73.2 (-7.3). Lisburn, Antrim and Belfast have drops of 6.9, 6.2 and 6.3 repectively.
I completely agree with the direction of your blogging so far. These are astonishing figures that more than bear out Horseman’s predictions. I had been looking forward to analysis on what the Census tells us about the winnability for Nationalism of the Westminster constituencies North Belfast, Upper Bann and (long shot) East Derry, but we haven’t got much to go on there, unless you can oblige.
Keep up the good work.
Nordie Northsider
Nordie,
Good to hear from you again
We will have much more detailed info when the Electoral Ward information is released in the new year but I am genuinely surprised by the speed at which the population is changing and indeed where it is changing.
BD
Castlereagh is an easy call, I live in it myself. Simply an influx of young Catholic families overflowing from the Ormeau and other parts of south Belfast. In my street, my near neighbours include two other families from nationalist background who moved in roughly at the same time as us three/four years ago. Between us we’ve six children and more due next year. My wife attended the local weight watchers after the birth of our last one and a fair proportion of the other ladies were women from a nationalist background in for the same reason. The rest of the demographic on our street from what I can tell is mostly elderly and childless Protestant couples. Not scientific but going by the sour face on Assistant Registrar Robinson at the council office every time we turn up with another Fenian name it’s fairly indicative.
Ulicko,
Great story, I really did LOL at that!
It’s the local knowledge that brings life to the raw figures and very often explains info that the rest of us may not fully understand.
Cheers
In % terms between 2001 and 2011 the biggest increases in the catholic population are Mid Ulster and Greater Belfast.
Though the catholic population in Belfast only grew by 4% in N’Abbey it grew 24%, Castlereagh 28%, Lisburn 21%.
In Dungannon it grew 28% (immigrants no doubt), 17% in Cookstown and 17% in Magherafelt.
In other places it grew by 19% in Banbridge, 18% in Craigavon, 18% in Antrim (part of west Belfast scattering), 18% in Ballymena and 16% in Ballymoney.
At the other end of the scale catholic growth was only 3% in Larne, 2% in Strabane and 2% in Derry.
Oakleaf,
What are your thoughts on East Derry?
Limavady is showing a dramatic swing for example?
That would be to do with Ballykelly barracks closing and a lot of Derry wans moving into disused army homes.
Brilliant, You see I don’t know this stuff.
I had a discussion in the pub earlier today with an ex UDA man. He has mellowed, seriously. He was genuinely shocked about the Belfast stats. He really didn’t see it coming but it was light a flash went off. He understood why the “Fleg” thing happened all of a sudden.
Magherafelt Oakleaf? You must have a take on that
South Derry (aka Magherafelt) has a young traditional population with the largest family size in the north which are in the process of getting married and having children.
Magherafelt has the lowest % of civil weddings (below 10%), marry younger and have bigger families (not like 30 years ago now but for modern times).
There are some immigrants in the area but not that many when comparef to Cookstown or Ballymena.
Oakleaf,
These are astonishing figures in a decade. No wonder Peter Robinson needs a few catholic votes!
Thanks Ulick O would you find that many of the new Catholic residents of C/reagh are keeping there heads down and perhaps putting Protestant on the census form. I know quite a few who have moved over to the East in the last 10 years and whilst they ain’t shouting top of the morning to you they find it to be quite settled.
FIS, maybe some over on the Cregagh Road and Beechgrove Park are but where I am not to far away from Ravenhill rugby pitch it’s not uncommon to see young lads from Bredagh GAC on the street with their hurls. Our eldest sons (Irish language) school bus also drops of a few others in the area and the local primary’s St Bernard’s and St Michaels are chock-a-block, with the latter particularly difficult to get into.
Yeah well a couple of these guys have actually moved to the Woodstock so they keep the heads down, Aye I know the area well is Ravenhill Avenue still the soft interface up there?
Contrary to Reports reaching my ears tonight I am categorically NOT responsible for the 3% increase in Catholic voters in North Down.
Just having a look at country of birth and noted that those like yourself from the Republic make up only 2% of the population. Does that not seem incredibly low considering how permeable the border is, the fact many extended families crisscross the border, not to mention the econmic woes in the south. There was also talk prior to the 2001 census that Derry was going to fill up with people from Donegal but I dont see any major change. Should you southerners not be doing your bit as natural catholic community background growth although looks large at 80000 is greatly reduced when we start to count the recent migrants! If we want a 50%+! situation then at the existing rate it could take another 30 years! maybe if Gerry gets into government in the south he can grant tax benefits to those who move to the north lol
Boondock,
Yep, us Southerners are a minority although my Dad was of Northern stock (Armagh). Your wider point is a good one. Leave it with me as I’m only in
BD
Boondock,
Here you go,
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2355-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census%202011-yearfilter–
There are 1196 of us Southerners in North Down
Great point to bring up and in my view, represents the paucity of genuine efforts made towards a united Ireland and also shows the difficulty in any hopes of achieving it. If real efforts had been taken 10 years ago by the southern government and cultural institutions, that tiny Irish figure would be far higher.
The lack of southerners up north shows how cultural partitioned the island is, this is part of the reason why so many people from Irish backgrounds don’t feel Irish, they see Ireland as something different, foreign and they’re right. It’s the same vice versa. If we look at other Irish cities, we see a large amount of backgrounds from all counties, though obviously especially those closer to them, but if we look at Derry and Belfast, do we see people living there from Meath, Roscommon, Mayo, Galway, Laois, etc? No, we don’t, we see people just from NI counties. This is another issue that needs to be combatted if we’re to have any real hope of achieving a UI. What are the odds of it actually being addressed? Very slim, unless maybe if Sinn Fein get into government in the south, but their support seems to have tapered off.
Another thing to consider, Boondock, are the large numbers of Nordies who went South. It seems to me that half of Derry lives in Inishowen now. Maybe Gerry could tax Nordie households in Donegal – no, wait a minute, he and Marty might be reluctant to do that.
boondock, BD
As mentioned elsewhere I see the census figures in a negative light in terms of UI prosepcts- in terms of Nats party votes it still is an improving picture. What is net ‘Nat’ headcount gain when immigration is allowed for?
Is immigration broken down by council area – can we see the net gain by council area AFTER immigration is allowed for.
(Apologies if this is already out there).
Sammy, Yes this info is out there via country of birth info. I will produce a graph asap. I am trying to not just replicate the headline figures and this is very relevant, particularly in areas such as Dungannon and Craigavon
What about protestants migrating to the north from england and scotland in the last decade. How does that compare with catholic eastern europeans?
Sammy as per my link above:
http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2355-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census%202011-yearfilter–
80k increase in Catholics. 17,500 Poles. Smaller numbers of immigrants from elsewhere, would mean around 55k increase in native population (making the unlikely assumption no ex-Catholics declared as’none’). Around about 70% of increase in Catholic population is not due to immigration. Catholic proportion in a period of historically unprecedented immigration and secularisation would have increased by almost 1% had not Catholics immigrated into NI.
Mack,
In trend terms I presume that 1% (admittedly excluding the ‘nones’ )is down on the previous 10 year census period – interesting what that might suggest for the next 10 year period.
re. The ‘Nones’
Although I do of course enjoy a bit of headcounting myself it is surely a good sign that we can no longer just check out what church someone goes to in order to work out what they think.
Much bigger rise in population due to immigration this time – 7.5%. Stripping that out would probably be closer to 2%. The data from previous censii (?) is unreliable but the natural increase would be probably would be lower than previous increases, but in line with what you would expect due to falling birth rates.
The fall in the Protestant proportion is much bigger than previous falls.
Immigration, the emergence of the others and nones, should transform the rules politically in the north.
Sammy I agree I am not sure how useful it is when there is a significant numer of nones, having grown to 18%. The 6% figure is nones, after using “religion brought up in” to reallocate people back to their religions. Even 6% makes the headcounting less meaningful. I also think this is to be welcomed (aside from any attitudes to religion itself). The trend to less adherence to religion could increase these numers to 20+% and 10+% next time, and at that point it becomes untenable to claim there is a simple binary divide in religious terms.
Regarding the immigration. NI headcounters always forget the amount of out and in migration. That is part of the reason the below 18 religious figures tend not to persist for older age groups. Outmigration is quite high and matched by inmigration and the latter group tends to have different religious mix than the former.
http://hoboroadpoliticalhighway.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/what-will-basil-do-next.html?m=1
Hobo, good post.
Basil can’t be a tory and join up with Sylvia though. The gap in the market is for a Centre left Unionist party.
bangordub, the gap is for a liberal unionist party, the opposite to the DUP leadership but still pro-union-lite. Right/left politics is secondary, and Sylvia and Basil could easily occupy the same space in a centre centre liberal union party
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20711565
BD, ta.
http://www.irishcentral.com/story/news/periscope/the-truth-is-margaret-thatcher-likely-ordered-the-pat-finucane-murder—-british-can-never-reveal-the-truth-about-the-killing-of-civil-rights-lawyer–183328851.html?mob-ua=Y
Just a brief point about Strabane.
I dont know it all and probably have only driven around it or thru it. But it was the first port of call on my Bus Pass Tour in May this year. That was probably Id ever been on the ground in Strabane. Had a cup of tea, apple pie and read a complimentary local newspaper….noticed that a lot of the properties for sale were in the Republic………..which is literally just over the bridge. Id guess upwardly mobile folks choose to live in Republic and work in Derry and Strabane.
Ballymoney is an interesting one. A small council area and a smallish Catholic population but it is right up against bigger council areas like Coleraine and Ballymena which has Catholic growth.
Again a suggestion might be that boy or girl from Ballymoney area meets and falls in love with boy or girl from Coleraine, Ballymoney or even Moyle area and choose to live outside Ballymoney.
A factor might be facilities ……..such as hospitals…schools.
Fitz is right about a lot of Derry folk living in Donegal and commuting to Derry. For most Derry and Donegal people their has never really been a border as far as they’re concerned. My father’s family are originally from a village in S Derry but later moved to a rural part of East Donegal. While I consider myself a Derry man, I’m born in Dublin (mum’s side), and spent my early years in Donegal before a number of family reasons resulted in us relocating to the waterside in Derry.
Similarly, my best mate’s family own a very successful business and they built their own house in Donegal to enjoy. Their house in Derry therefore is just for the kids to come back to after school and have their mates over.
I also know umpteen different people, with retirement/holiday homes around Fahan, Inch Island, Buncrana Greencastle, Moville (like John Hume), Greencastle and Shrove all coastal parts of Inis Eoghain.
I also discovered a friend my age (27) has moved to Donegal. She works a specialist nurse but I’m not sure if its working in Derry or Donegal yet.
Going the other way, I met a few Donegal people last time I was home (and that was a while ago), and they weren’t Buncrana people as you might expect but from further over in Killybegs. We also recently had a tenant from Donegal.
If my mother’s area of the waterside is anything to go by, there are many southerners. She has a new neighbour who’s also a Dubliner and a couple doors up is a woman from Wexford who’s lived there for years like my mother. I’m sure when I go home next Tuesday I’ll have a more detailed picture of what it’s like on the ground.
Incidentally, these census forms are about residency on the census days. If you have a pad in Derry too , presumably you can vote there right?
If you look at voter register, Derry still seems to be fairly briskly.
Guys/ Girls
The uncomfortable fact here is that the PUL death rate is far higher due to the older demographic balance added to the younger C/N cohort which is of child bearing age. The overall effect is a rapid shift in balance.
None of this is a surprise. Immigration is a new element but I don’t think it has changed things as much as I expected.
My next post will be on the “western aspect”. Thoughts and ideas are welcome as always. Fermanagh is particularly dramatic, 60/40 from a very steady 50/50 over many years
Would be interesting to know what these census results mean in electoral terms for specific constituencies…damn NISRA! Couldn’t just publish all geographic levels in one go for our consumption.
Anyone able to extrapolate the council results and project them (reasonably) accurately onto constituency level? Would be interesting to know N Belfast, S Belfast, Upper Bann and so on. Catholics must be at least a plurality in the first two, very tight in U Bann I’d say.
North Belfast, for example, is difficult to do, it breaches two LGD’s and even taking an average change across these districts would probably be inaccurate, as the parts actually in this seat (Glengormley ect) have probably seen the most dramatic RC increase, Prod decline.
Martin it is impossible to tell without the Ward info I’m afraid as Belfast LGD covers a large geographical area. However Newtownabbey provides some clues:
A 3.24% increase in the Catholic population in ten years (Up to 22.6%).
Plus a 4.2% increase in Nationalist votes over the same period.
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Any chance on adding a blog on the workforce stats? There was another datapoint to add to horseman’s classic record.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20756129