Ok.
This is a holding statement. The powers that be have decided to release the figures in a less than user friendly fashion. Hence my slow response. Apologies.
What a great set of figures to get our teeth into though?
Unionism not just below but crashing through the 50% psychological barrier. I am amazed at that. I expected 50% +/- 1%.
Belfast is now officially a Nationalist city. 42% Unionist. who’d have thought it?
Of the 26 Councils only 10, by my count are now majority Unionist. Fermanagh is greening by the minute and the West in general is lost to Unionism.
My older readers, bloggers, commenters and friends will all know who the title of this post refers to. He was right. Enough said.
I’ll be working on detailed figures for the next few hours so please forgive me if I don’t reply to all your comments. And thanks.
You might like this interactive map 
http://www.thedetail.tv/issues/155/census-data/the-northern-ireland-census-religion-and-identity-mapped
Repost of Seamus O Sionnaigh post from from previous thread: BD
My own quick calculations.
National Identity:
39.89% = British only
25.26% = Irish only
20.94% = Northern Irish only
00.66% = British and Irish only
06.17% = British and Northern Irish only
01.06% = Irish and Northern Irish only
01.02% = British, Irish and Northern Irish only
05.00% = Other
A Suggested Aggregate National Identity:
47.26% = Irish
46.72% = British
01.02% = British/Irish/N. Irish
05.00% = Other
Religion:
48.36% = Protestant / Other Christian
45.14% = Roman Catholic
00.92% = Other Religion
05.59% = No Religion
The aggregate percentages for “Irish” and “British” are of course a conflation of the census results for:
25.26% (Irish only) + 20.94% (Northern Irish only) + 01.06% (Irish and Northern Irish only) = 47.26%
39.89% (British only) + 00.66% (British and Irish only) + 06.17% (British and Northern Irish only) = 46.72%
I’m not stating that all of that 20.94% “Northern Irish only” in the 2011 census self-identify as Irish in the sense of being citizens of the nation-state of Ireland but rather they self-identify as Irish in the sense of being inhabitants of the north-eastern part of the island of Ireland. Which is still, most definitely, not British. And very likely for a significant number of that percentage is closer to Irish in the conventional accepted sense of the word than not.
That 47.26% is unsurprisingly close to the combined vote for the Nationalist parties in the North. As it is half the population of the north-east of the country reject the label of British.
A case of more hard work ahead.
Beidh ár lá linn!
The statement “Unionism not just below but crashing through the 50% psychological barrier.” is quite obtuse because it is not unionism it is protestantism. Like GB they have secularised.
Alliance Party office in Bangor petrol bombed last night.
Bangordub,
I think with S O’T going mad with people now telling these N. Irish that they are now unionists with no evidence it’s time for a few clear trends to be drilled down into.
First of all, regarding comm. background, as we already have clear data points regarding that and voting patterns, I suggest that trend should be the first to be analysed.
Secondly,
regarding this new identity statistic, I think unionists need to stop designating them as unionist as nationalists need to accept that some catholics no longer feel like unwanted guests in their own home and partition has invariably let to some sort of cultural divergence. We all know that. However the idea that these ppl cannot be aspire to a united ireland is absurd, especially as they make no mention of being also British given the option to.
Therefore, the second set of statistics is to correlate Northern Irish only, Irish only and Northern Irish and Irish only to see if these ppl are all in the catholic comm. bcckground camp. A cursory glance says that (and in each case I’m rounding up or down)
Belfast: 48% cath., 42% prot. and 7% none.
Belfast: 31% irish only, 19% northern irish only and 1% NI and irish only.
35% British only, 5% british and NI only, 1% Brit,NI and irish.
Derry: 75% cath. 22% prot. and 2% none.
52% irish only, 20% NI only and 2% Ni and irish only
20% British only, 2% Brit and NI only and 1%Brit, NI and Irish.
Newry: 79% cath. 18% prot. 2% none
50% irish only, 23% NI only and 2% Ni and irish only
17% british only, 2% brit and NI only and 0% Brit Ni and irish
and so on….
that’s a remarkable degree of correlation between cath. comm. and all none british identities. Similarly there’s also a good correlation between british identities and prot. backgrounds. In other words, it looks like catholics are dominating that northern irish only identity. That’s fair enough.
If you’d like to carry this on Bangor you can tell me how it goes for the rest.
What I will say is, if we combine these two points. Rather than argue over how settled or otherwise they are as northern irish like on slugger. We could actually go the only empirical evidence their is. Votes. The votes for nationalists are not declining any time soon. more catholics are voting alliance and green. Good for them. the only group still in decline is the unionist bloc.
therefore, rather than speculate, I found the numbers quite reassuring and seeing the number of catholic community increasing, particularly in the west, be they irish , northern irish or both is still good news for nationalists. But feel free to challenge any of this if you like.
charlie.
The massive influx of polish etc., who are Catholic, tended to inflate the catholic figures, and in fact we know the poles are at least 1% because that is the figure given for polish speakers. Thus if you took away these migrants the Catholic ommunity would not have increased (it only increased by 1%). Overall what one can say is that the religious affiliation data is not as useful as before. And that the Catholic % could start to fall — just as the % of Catholic religious weddings in NI has been falling lately according to NISRA data.
In fairness I actually thought there were a lot more immigrants from Poland and Portugal in Northern Ireland and although obviously not Irish nationalist the headline figure could have been even more uncomfortable for Peter and co
Yeah I think a 1% increase is pretty reassuring for him. Next time it may go down.
Charlie as you have pointed out the correlation between the catholic community background and the Irish/ Northern Irish only and Irish combo identity is remarkable. I started to think why. First possibilty is indeed nearly all those who ticked Northern Irish only are nationalist and see northern Irish as being Irish but geographically or politically slightly different to those from Eire. This would suggest that very few Protestants ticked the option – is this likely?, some would argue that Northern Irish like Scottish, Welsh and English is actually a form of British. I would of thought many Protestants would have gone for this option think Alliance types and whats left of the liberal wing of the UUP (mcallister, McCrea etc), if as it looks likely very few did tick this option then is that a sign that protestants are hardening their views?
The only explanation that accomodates more Protestants ticking Northern Irish only is if many Catholics ticked British – is this very likely? Some would say yes we have all heard of the catholic unicorns so maybe they do exist in larger numbers than first thought. One other possiblity is that someone may feel culturally Irish but ticked British because of the reality of currently living in the UK or because they carry a British passport – is that likely?
So many unanswerd questions. NINIS couldnt have provided a better set of stats with both sides declaring some form of victory!
BOONDOCK – I’m calculating a figure as high as 5000 community background Catholic respondents going on to click British Identity in Down LGD. In Newry LGD there may be as many as 3000 Unicorns to join that wannabe Earl near Rostrevor. Also a substantial percentage in Omagh.
Conversely there is hope in the combined Irish/Northern Irish ONLY respondents in Lisburn and North Down outweighing Catholics. And look in particular at Ards where the figures are double for the number of Catholics. Why would such numbers in loyalist heartlands be disinclined to describe themselves as British?
Strange that soccer mad Derry has a higher percentage of Catholics avoiding the Northern Ireland nomenclature than rural GAA strongholds. I’m wondering is that because of the OTT reactions they get from many Free Staters at matches. Bit depressing that, but many in Tyrone due to this and having participated in the Celtic Kitten boom now have a negative association to southern ‘culture’.
I disagree entirely Factual,
For a start 1% is well within the margin of error given that I rounded down 0.49% to 0% at one point so that’s already ~50% error on 1% of the data 1+/-0.5%.
Secondly, the world and his dog knows what “community background” means. You could call yourself a practising catholic but have nothing to do (sensibly) with the traditional communal bunkers we have here and mark ‘other’ or ‘none’.
Thirdly, with those caveats let’s say you still have a point and we must discount that 1%. In two of the three cases alone that I cited, Derry and Newry’s cath. comm. overshoots combined non-British identities by 1% and 4% respectively. If you discount your 1% then Newry is now 3% off and Derry is spot on the same. So you actually make my point a stronger one. Only in Belfast does it seem to diverge, but then that’s the big smoke and almost by definition more open to fluid identites then country bumpkins are. Another tit-bit for BangorDub to get his teeth into.
charlie
I said on the previous thread that I am not worried about the stats regarding identity.. I am a nationalist but like many nationalists at the moment I am happy within the UK as the timing for a united Ireland isnt right. What Unionists and especially their political representatives must realise is that they have to start respecting Irish culture and start to get serious about equality. We have seen it all this week over the flag at city hall and quite frankly Im not impressed. The hoods on the street say the are ”compromised out’ – really a few examples please. The idiot Unionist politicians play the orange card as they always do. This census may show that a united Ireland is a long way off, no problem but it also does show that Northern Ireland will continue to change/green and circling the wagons round city hall just wont cut it anymore, unionism has to become more progressive or that united Ireland might happen a whole lot sooner
My early conclusions are, and I know Sammy hates this stat, that the older Unionist demographic is kicking in combined with the younger child bearing nationalist population.
I really dont want to produce early figures until I’m sure of them and I haven’t found ward info yet, just LGD figures.
Magherafelt and Dungannon are astounding, FST is a revelation and I’m amazed by Belfast. Even good old North Down is showing a 3% increase in Catholic numbers, not my fault I assure you
In 1991 there were 38% catholic, in 2001 it was 40% now its 41% even after a ton of polish immigration. Slowing much? Religion is becoming a minority pursuit. Pinning ones hopes on a catholic majority is doomed. Not Ulster. Horseman was wrong. He is – ironically – dead. And his analysis has died with him.
Factual, if you’re point now is only among those consider themselves religious, then of course that number does go up fast given the surge (10% in UK) in Atheism. I’m surprised it went up at all Polish or no Polish! Unionists have no monopoly on the ‘no religion’ column.
The Irish census in Dublin last year showed that the Irish have not secularised as fast as the British; so I think this is a British thing more than Irish. Secondly, the data shows that the no religion types are most prevalent in places like Carrickfergus, and the no religion children tend to go to state schools (where CNRs tend not to send their kids).
Factual you seem to be forgetting that while the Catholic population rose by 1.5% the population as whole rose by 110k to 1.8 million. By my rough calculations that means that Catholics account for 70% of the new people identified by the census. If we combine that situation at one end with the knowledge that at the other end 67% of current octogenarians are from Protestant background, then it does provide some evidence that a tipping point is not far off which will see the demographic shift gaining a lot of pace.
Putting this drop in context in England and Wales the Christian population was down 13 percentage points at 59% in 2011, from 72% in 2001. So you can see the secularisation of British people (much much more than the Irish in our own recen census). Much of the drop in those who are protestant is due to this pan UK trend. It will continue. Where England Wales lead, NI tends to follow. The census is no longer useful. Horseman is dead. So is his numbercrunching.
Factual,
Please try and stick to facts rather than abuse. Your points are lost because of the obvious attempts to discredit Horseman. His Stats not alone stack up but are proving accurate beyond even his projections. We all die some day but I will not permit you to continue in this vein here. Make your point by all means but please respect others also including the deceased.
He encouraged a sectarian head-counting attitude that is (i) complacent and (ii) the antithesis of republican values.
Factual,
You’re a Sinn Fein drone!! Who else has been more reliant of head counting than them? Its half the reason they gave up the armed struggle?! It was Clinton who said who said to Adams, “Gerry, your numbers are getting better everyday.”
Sinn Fein, has set the United Ireland project back years by not laying out a coherent plan for genuine new Ireland with full protections and mechanisms for the unionist people. Rather they’ve sat back, waited for the demographic cavalry and all the while unionists used SF as the poster boy of all that’s wrong and barbaric of Republicanism. They had fuck all on the SDLP. Yet you have a mantra election on election that insults the nationalist people.
Do yourself a favour, if you want a party that genuinely espouses republican values and hasn’t got blood on its hands to allow others to disregard a united ireland with whataboutery then ditch Sinn Fein. They’re 10 years as top nationalist dog has resulted in a UI looking further away than it ought to.
But you won’t, because you’re SF door-knocking fodder, and you can’t see the wood through the trees.
I’m due up at 4am for work so its long past my bedtime but I thought I’d drop in a sleepy-headed comment. Apologies in advance for any illogicality!
Just 46% of the population in the census unambiguously identified themselves as British of any type (excluding the tiny “British/Irish/N.Irish” category). That leaves Republicans with a challenge and opportunity. A hearts and minds campaign to win over the half-hearted or doubtful or dual-minded represented by the 20% “Northern Irish”.
From a Republican point of view the stats below roughly represent the situation in the north-east (I think!):
42% = Nationalist Vote
45% = Roman Catholic
47% = Irish / Northern Irish
If you were to accept the census at face value then a Nationalist percentage vote of 42% is derived from a census percentage of 25% “Irish”. Is that likely? My belief is that it must draw upon the 20% “Northern Irish” percentage to some extent.
On the other hand a “British” percentage of 46% in the census is not far away from the percentage of Unionist votes (if one includes the Alliance Party).
Both political traditions must be drawing upon the “Northern Irish” vote.
That vote must be won to the Nationalist side and I believe that is an objective we can achieve. In fact I would argue that a sizeable percentage is already sympathetic or de facto on-board.
“Partition” of some sort will probably remain a long-term feature of Irish politics. But within the context of a reunited Ireland. That is a regional legislature, executive, police and courts service, etc. in the north-east of the country but within a broader Reunited Ireland where the “border” is simply an internal administrative line. That is the New Ireland that can win over the 20% “Northern Irish”.
The DUP, UUP, etc. may be desperately seeking the “Catholic” vote but as recent events have shown they are incapable of genuinely doing so. The Alliance Party, or its political descendants, may well be the future voice of a British ethno-national minority within a reunited Ireland. It is a case of hearts and minds, with a clear objective for Republicans to achieve.
For the first time in a long time I can see light at the end of the tunnel
I think this is a better post than the others here. Basically I think we should be presenting arguments for a UI not trying to count up Catholics. Given that you present arguments, and don’t count Catholics, I think you are onto something.
Counting up Catholics is both complacent and the antithesis of republicanism. A UI that comes about because arguments were made is better than a UI that was waited for by Counting up Catholics.
Who doesn’t agree with that factual. Try telling at your next SF cumann meeting as SF have done f*ck all else but count the catholics for the last 10 years, oh that’s right, they don’t do desenting opinions in SF.
Charlie, factual was outted a long time ago on politics.ie as having no connection to SF.
Charlie – if you’re being honest I think you’ll find no-one has been doing much but ‘count the catholics’ for the last ten years. A UI can only happen if every party north and south (excluding unionists obviously) throw their full weight into designing and campaigning for the benefits reunification will bring for everyone . That can however begin now that there is no more in-built fabricated super majority against the concept like there had been for a century. The religious background stats have indeed opened a door but they need to be left behind now.
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